Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
T H E
NATION
Report
At the impeachment trial, defense lawyers presented witnesses and documents debunking the prosecutions claims of countless undeclared or undervalued properties. Plus: a congressman recounted how 188 lawmakers signed without reading the charges under threat of pork barrel drought Word war: The media battle between the President and the Chief Justice
WORLD
The hobbled global economy showed signs of improvement, as America churned out more jobs, Europe skirted euro meltdown, and China looks set to avoid a hard landing. But downside risks remain. The top worry: oil prices
Improve intelligence by boosting mental memory, enjoying music and art, stretching body and spirit, and having the right attitude. And dont forget to take a nap every now and then Beyond IQ.: Theres more to being smart than meets the mind
BUSINESS
As Asia becomes more and more affluent, its amusement parks are bringing in more and more visitors, with China and South Korea leading the way. Heres the fun way to profit Carnival base: Subic wants to add mirth to its old business of berths The worlds fastest roller coaster: In Abu Dhabi, take a heart-stopping ride in a Formula 1 racer
TECHNOLOGY
POINT & CLICK You can access online research via the Internet by clicking phrases in blue
The auto of the future will burn less fuel, spew less CO2, avoid accidents, and do many other nifty things without asking or being asked by the driver. Say start then sleep Hands off: Whos driving the car if theres nobody at the wheel? Hi, Beamer, it's Hyundai: Teaching vehicles to communicate with one another Prototypes: Feast your eyes on these amazing concept cars
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence provides expertise in strategy and management, enterprise development, intelligence, Internet and media. For subscriptions, research, and advisory services, please e-mail report@censeisolutions.com or call/fax +63-2-5311182. Links to online material on public websites are current as of the week prior to the publication date, but might be removed without warning. Publishers of linked content should e-mail us or contact us by fax if they do not wish their websites to be linked to our material in the future.
New Bedan lawyer JC Sadian: A legal mind and blindfolded, all-seeing justice
Nonetheless, in chronicling the gyrations of the Senate trial, the Ateneo political science major must set aside his own political and even moral leanings to focus on the facts and the law. After all, if evidence is ignored and statutes expressing the people's sovereign will are violated, then righteousness is ripped to ribbons, and the worst kind of politics prevails. In highlighting the most telling testimonies, documents, rulings and arguments, There The CenSEI Report also offers the unadulterated record of proceedings that, sadly, gets short shrift in the highly partisan public arena, where spin and selfpromotion often overshadow what's real and legal. Still, having worked in Malacaang, Sadian knows how governance is anything but pure legalities. So it is with impeachment. "The senator-judges will vote not merely by the letter of the law, but according to what they appreciate as the 'politically' sound decision," says Sadian. Which even more reason to provide an unbiased, expert and objective recounting of the trial. Thus, when the verdict comes down, even if justice should become a casualty, we will at least know the truth.
NATION
cenSEI
T H E
Report
The Senate impeachment court reconvened on March 12, 2012 after the 11-day adjournment at the end of the prosecutions presentation of evidence against Chief Justice Renato C. Corona. Prosecutors rested their case after presenting 25 witnesses and 395 documents for the Second, Third, and Seventh Articles of Impeachment only. Lead prosecutor Niel Tupas proudly declared: We have already presented a strong case. ... The evidence
laid down suffices to convict Corona for betrayal of public trust. Some senators deplored the Prosecutions claim to victory despite dropping five other Articles of Impeachment. Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago angrily expressed her concern that the Prosecution was misleading the court and has been in very bad faith all along because they keep on saying to the media, Panalo na
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
kami! even without hearing out the side of the Defense. Ang yayabang ng mga nagsasalitang yan! was how she furiously described such arrogance.
on the claimed non-declaration or underdeclaration of real properties. Likewise, the unfinished testimony of former Manila Mayor Lito Atienza may For his part, shed light on Senate President the nature of Juan Ponce supposedly Enrile, presiding undeclared over the bank deposits impeachment exceeding P30 court, warned million. In prosecutors that addition, the they are putting statements After eight days of presenting their own evidence, the Defense team under the leadership of this court in of Navotas retired Supreme Court Associate Justice Serafin a very serious Representative Cuevas has started to shed light on the evidence predicament Tobias Tiangco presented by the Prosecution YouTube video because [they] and Land already made Registration pronouncements Authority chief about the weight and quantum of evidence Eulalio Diaz appeared to affirm an attempt that [they] have presented for [their] side. to either mislead or misinform the public as to the merits of the accusations against the So far, the prosecutions victory claims highest judicial official of the land. are sounding more and more tenuous as the Defense presents its witnesses and Signing without reading. The very first documents. While it took the prosecution thing on the defense agenda when the trial 26 days to build its case, in eight days resumed on March 12 was to attack the defense lawyers cast doubt on the very validity of the impeachment complaint for foundations of the three remaining Articles failure to comply with the requirement of Impeachment, especially its strongest of verification. Section 4, Rule 7 of the charge, the Second Article alleging Rules of Court requires that a complaint be gross misdeclaration in Coronas sworn verified by an affidavit that the affiant has statement of assets, liabilities and net read the pleading and that the allegations worth (SALN). therein are true and correct of his knowledge and belief. And that allegedly Testimonies by the city assessors of didnt happen when 188 congressmen Taguig, Quezon City, and Makati directly signed the Corona impeachment attacked the Prosecutions evidence supposedly without reading it.
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
The defense caucus was argued going on. that it was impossible for Evidence congressmenin, signatories evidence to have read out, the 56-page charges complaint in dropped. a few hours. Separately, Denying the the Senate motion of decided Admitting that he almost signed the impeachment complaint despite not having read it first, Navotas Rep. the defense to accept Toby Tiangco testified that there was political motivation to have some deposit behind the Articles of Impeachment against Chief Justice congressmen information Corona ABS-CBN Video subpoenaed presented to prove by the this allegation, Senate President Enrile prosecution, denying the motion of the reiterated the Senates previous ruling on Defense to suppress the material for having Day One of the trial that the impeachment been obtained with the aid of dubious complaint was properly verified papers. Whatever evidence presented according to the rules of the House of with respect to bank accounts, they're all Representatives. accepted and admitted, Enrile said. Nonetheless, the defense presented Navotas Rep. Tobias Tiangco as its first witness to show political motivation behind Coronas impeachment. The former Liberal Party congressman narrated how House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr. told the congressmen on December 12, 2011 that Corona should be impeached because of his closeness to former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Tiangco also said he did not sign because like other congressmen, he was not given a chance to read the complaint. He recounted that legislators were only shown a Powerpoint presentation on the charges, and that Speaker Belmonte said the formal complaint was still being prepared as the Regarding the Third Article which alleges that Corona betrayed public trust when he allowed the Supreme Court to act on mere letters from counsel in the Flight Attendants and Stewards Association of the Philippines (FASAP) vs. Philippine Airlines (PAL) case, the Senate granted the motion of the Defense and ruled that evidence on benefits Corona allegedly received from PAL were improper as these tend to prove bribery, a crime not alleged in Article III of the Articles of Impeachment. On the Seventh Article charging that Corona granted a temporary restraining order (TRO) which gave former President Arroyo an opportunity to escape prosecution from several criminal cases,
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
the Senate ruled against the admissibility of Justice Secretary Leila De Limas testimony for being hearsay. Senate President Enrile pointed out that De Limas knowledge came by reading the dissenting opinion [of Justice Sereno], and that all she testified on the irregularities [allegedly surrounding the TRO] did not come from personal knowledge but by reading only. The Senate denied the defense motion to dismiss Articles I, IV, V, VI, and VIII, which were dropped by the Prosecution. Senate President Enrile stressed that the senator-judges have a clear understanding that they will no longer vote or receive any evidence from the prosecution and the defense on these five dropped articles. Clarifying taxes, benefits and assets. On Day 28, Supreme Court chief disbursing officer Araceli Bayuga was presented by the defense to rebut Bureau of Internal Revenue Commissioner Kim Henaress earlier claim that the Supreme Court did not file the alpha list identifying employees whose income taxes were withheld for the years 2002 to 2005. Bayuga presented copies
of the 2002-05 lists released by the BIR itself. Bayuga also testified that Corona received over 21 million in salaries and benefits as a Supreme Court justice since 2002. She added that justices are not required to liquidate their cash allowances, but are only required to submit a certification. Bayuga said the only taxable items in a magistrates benefits are the salary, longevity pay, and yearend bonus in excess of 30,000. Similar procedures apply to most, if not all government personnel. The defense also presented House of Representatives Electoral Tribunal (HRET) secretary Girlie Salarda. She testified that Corona received around 2.5 million in allowances and other benefits as a HRET member from 2008 to 2009. Salarda added that when the justice became tribunal chair from November 2009 to February 2010, he got another 855,784. Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) secretary Irene Guevarra further related that Corona received 1.7 million in allowances as a SET member in 2008-09.
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
Debunking the claimed 45 Corona properties. The defense also presented Demetrio Vicente to prove that seven parcels of land included in the Prosecution list of 45 purported Corona properties did not belong to either the Chief Justice or his wife Cristina. Vicente said he bought the seven parcels of land from Cristina way back in 1990 as shown by seven deeds of absolute sale
he presented. He further explained that like most property buyers, he had not transferred the land titles to his name from the previous owner, Cristina Corona, because of the transfer expense. The defense also presented the city assessors of Taguig, Quezon City, and Makati to prove that property values in the Chief Justices SALN matched assessments by city governments. Taguig Assessor Roberto Villaluz explained that according to tax declarations, Coronas Bonifacio Ridge condominium has an assessed value of over 1.4 million, as stated in the SALN. Similarly, Corona's Bellagio Tower unit was worth over 3.4 million, as declared. Villaruz also presented a copy of the certificate of title showing that the McKinley Hill condominium unit had been transferred to Coronas daughter Charina. Hence, it was not in the SALN.
Lead prosecutor Rep. Niel Tupas Jr. and the prosecution panel were rebuked by the senators for submitting to the Senate a list of 45 properties most of which turned out not be Coronas ABS-CBN Video
Former Manila Mayor Lito Atienza testifies about a past transaction between Cristina Corona and the City Government of Manila, which some senators believe could shed light on the true nature of some of the money deposited in Coronas bank accounts ABS-CBN Video
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
Quezon City Carmina Cruz to justify Assessor Rodolfo the non-inclusion of Senator Joker Arroyo The Columns unit in Ordanes testified was especially that Coronas Coronas 2003 SALN. Burgundy Plaza Cruz testified that the dismayed at what condo had a fair Coronas did not readily he described as the market value of accept the condo due 'cavalier' attitude 921,000 and an to defects, as stated in of Diaz and the assessed value a letter from Cristina of 276,320. Corona in 2008, which prosecutors in The same values Cruz read out. 'misleading the appear in the public' by submitting SALN. Ordanes A presidential also presented four a list of 45 properties buddy helps the tax declarations most of which turned Prosecution. for the Xavierville President Aquinos out not to be Coronas grade school Avenue property and another classmate, former declaration for an legislative officer, Ayala Heights asset. He also affirmed that and current Land Registration Authority the La Vista property had been transferred chief Eulalio Diaz was also presented by to Coronas daughter Carla Castillo. the defense to prove that the list of 45 properties originally brandished by the On Day 31, Makati City Assessor Mario prosecution as belonging to Corona was Badillo shed light on the value of Coronas acquired with motive, bias, and bad faith, unit at The Columns along Makatis considering that 17 of these properties prime Ayala Avenue. Like his Taguig had cancelled titles while 22 are no longer and Quezon City counterparts, Badillo owned by Corona or his family. confirmed that his figures matched those in Coronas SALN. Diaz admitted that his agency conducted a general name search of all properties Quezon City Registrar of Deeds Carlo under the name of Renato Corona and his Alcantara also presented three transfer family at the request of lead prosecutor certificates of title (TCTs) proving that Tupas. Diaz also admitted that LRA Coronas three Quezon City properties gave the list to the prosecution without worth about 43 million had been sold certifying that they were owned by the before 2010. Alcantara also brought Chief Justice. Senators rebuked Diaz and documents showing that the 8-million the prosecutors for submitting a list of 45 property in Ayala Heights had already been properties most of which turned out not transferred to a third party in March 2010. be Coronas. Senator Joker Arroyo was especially dismayed at what he described On Day 32, the defense also presented as the cavalier attitude of Diaz and the Alveo Land Corp. customer relations head prosecutors in misleading the public.
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
10
The next day, Day 33, Diaz got another scolding for giving contradictory answers to senators questions. He admitted to Sen. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. that he knew the Prosecution would use the list for the impeachment after having said earlier to Sen. Santiago that he did not know the reason behind the prosecutions request. He had also claimed that it took him two to three days to prepare the list, but later stated that he had the list readily prepared as soon as the prosecution asked for it.
the City Government of Manila for the purchase of the lot now occupied by the Sampaloc public market. When the Light Rail Transit Authority expropriated land for the LRT-2 Legarda Station, Atienza negotiated with Cristina to buy BGEIs 1,020 square-meter lot for the market. Since Cristina had been authorized by a board resolution to sell the lot, the City of Manila issued a 34-million check to Cristina in trust for BGEI. The prosecution attacked the validity of the sale due to Cristinas improper authorization to receive the payment. But some senators believe Atienzas testimony is directly relevant to Article II because proceeds from this sale may be the same P34 million deposited in Coronas PSBank accounts. Senate President Enrile himself stated that Atienzas testimony is at the heart of the problem. The trial adjourned with a hanging question from Senators Arroyo and Panfilo Lacson: What happened to the 34 million received by Mrs. Corona, considering that her relatives, who also have interest in BGEI, are contesting ownership of the land sale proceeds? This would be answered upon the trials resumption on May 7 after the long Lenten break. So after eight days of testimony, what began as 45 properties claimed in a Prosecution press conference was down to the five declared by Chief Justice Corona in his SALN, plus a sixth asset attached to one of the five. And SALN values reflected official assessments by city governments. Next for defense debunking: Coronas allegedly bloated bank accounts.
Atienza and the 34-million question. Former Manila Mayor Lito Atienza took the witness stand on Day 34 to recount the transaction between Cristina Coronas Basa-Guidote Enterprises Inc. (BGEI) and
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
Impeachment. Its more fun in the Philippines. How have the trials by the Senate and by So while a Senate trial was being conducted before publicity affected public opinion? Pulse Asia did a national TV and radio, nationwide poll on the there was an ongoing impeachment from trial by publicity waged February 26 to March by the prosecution, 9, as the prosecution who openly violated ended its presentation admonitions against of evidence but publicizing evidence yet before the defense to be offered. President began. That prompted Benigno Aquino III Supreme Court was also unrestrained Spokesperson Midas in publicly attacking Marquez to criticize the Corona and virtually President Aquino at La Consolacion RTVM Video survey as premature. pronouncing him guilty. The most direct and According to the extensive commentary poll, 15% of the was his Powerpoint respondents believe presentation on Corona is guilty of the Coronas alleged charges, while 1% are misdeclared wealth at sure he is innocent. La Consolacion College But nearly nine out outside Malacaang of 10 respondents last month. are uncertain. Onethird say Corona is Corona himself probably guilty, while addressed supporters 4% think he is probably Chief Justice Corona with Arnold Clavio YouTube before the trial began innocent. And nearly in January, alleging a half did not feel one conspiracy to remove him among unnamed figures way or the other, including 5% who said they did widely understood to be Aquino, his defeated not have any basis to judge. running mate Mar Roxas, and Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio. After the Presidents La Notably, nine out of ten respondents said they did Consolacion speech, Corona hit back by telling not know much about the impeachment, about the
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
12
same ratio as those who were unsure about judging Corona. Only 8% said that they knew a great deal about the impeachment, while 24% said they knew enough but not much. However, 56% admitted that they knew a little and 11% who said they had almost no or absolutely no knowledge at all. As to whether the House of Representatives railroaded the impeachment complaint, 38% did not think so, while 33% said it did, and 29% were undecided. On the Senate, 69% of the respondents said the Senate was impartial, 22% thought it wasnt, and 9% were undecided.
Even before the trial began, Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile admonished the prosecution and defense teams not to discuss evidence and merits of the case in public. After the President and the Chief Justice exchanged media barbs, both senators and bishops urged Aquino and Corona to desist from public statements on the impeachment. Last week Sen. Loren Legarda demanded a public apology from prosecutors for misleading the public in their media offensive accusing Corona of owning 45 properties. Impeachment. Its more fun in the Philippines.
Of the changes Chief Justice Renato Corona is accused, would you say that he is...? INNOCENT
(Base: Total Interviews, 100%)
Opinion on Chief Justice Renato Corona's Innocence or Guilt February 16 - March 9, 2012 / Philippines (in Percent)
RP 5 1 NCR 4 1 Location LUZ 3 0 VIS 4 1 MIN 9 2 ABC 1 1
Class D 6 1
E 3 0
UNDECIDED GUILTY
43
Probably guilty
47
45
Definitely guilty
33 5
50
47
15
28 1
48
48
22
35 2
37
31
13
23 11
54
44
14
38 6
52
43
16
26 3
48
44
25
34 3
45
15
31 8
14
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
13
Nation
relations between the two countries will be discussed. The State of Kuwait is among the country's top investment and development partners from the Middle East. There are currently 130,000 overseas Filipino workers in the said country.
Smartmatic International Corp., said that the elections were generally successful, even if there are still things that can be improved.
The
cenSEI Report
14
WORLD
cenSEI
T H E
Report
STRATEGY POINTS
With U.S. jobs rising, Europe skirting meltdown, and China softening its landing, world economic prospects are looking somewhat brighter If you have to fret, put oil prices at the top of your worry list. A $50/ barrel increase can gobble up 1-2 percentage points of growth Emerging Asia will continue leading the world with 6% growth. The Philippines tipped to return to 5% expansion in the medium term
No, the world economy is far from getting out of the woods. In fact, just last Thursday on the ides of March, New York University economics guru Nouriel Roubini, who famously played Cassandra during the 2008 U.S. financial crisis, warned in his Project Syndicate column about Scary Oil. Todays fragile global economy faces many risks: the risk of another flare-up of the eurozone crisis; the risk of a worse-thanexpected slowdown in China; and the risk that economic recovery in the United States will fizzle (yet again). But no risk is more serious than that posed by a further spike in oil prices.
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
The good news is, three of the four global economic bogeys in Roubinis March 15 prognosis have stepped back a bit since the gloom and doom reports just a couple of months ago. In its Prospects Daily briefing posted online also last Thursday, the World Bank noted that U.S. unemployment had stayed at its lowest in four years for the third week running. That same March 15, investors bought $17 billion in French and Spanish bonds at lower yields than recent euro-crisis levels. And the Wednesday before, another issue of the
Bank update noted that U.S. Treasury bill yields had continued rising, while Euro Area industral output inched up in January from the previous month. Looking to Asia, as the China Daily reported on March 6, Premier Wen Jiabao has trimmed the gross domestic product growth target for this year to 7.5% from the decadesold 8% goal. Thats still a long way from the hard-landing fears of below 5%. Jobs are tipped to increase by more than 9 million, so that registered urban unemployment would stay at or below 4.6%.
10
0.5K
-0.5K
4 2008 2008
Jul
2009 2009
Jul
2010 2010
Jul
1K 2011
10 5 0 -5 -10 Apr 2010 Jul Jul Oct 2011 2011 Apr Jul Jul Oct
Charts from the World Banks Prospects Daily updates, March 4 and March 14, 2012
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
16
The far-from-dismal growth target affirmed positive forecasts from seasoned China watchers. Back in September, Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Stephen Roach had argued in China Landing Soft, Not Hard, that the feared housing sector collapse was precluded by the take-up of homes by 310 million rural Chinese expected to move to cities by 2030, plus government moves since April 2010 to curtail speculation and excessive lending. Last December the Yale professor affirmed his prognoses for China as well as India. While China is in better shape than India, neither economy is likely to implode on its own, Roach summed up. It would take another shock to trigger a hard landing in Asia. His colleagues at Morgan Stanley Asia argue in their update Downside Risks to Growth Capped; More Policy Easing to Come that both improving exports and monetary and fiscal boosts dispel fears of a major growth deceleration. For its part, the Economist Intelligence Unit said last month that Beijing has leeway to counter any major slowdown by cutting interest rates and boosting spending without accelerating inflation. The energy bogey. But what about oil prices? There were already complaints about fuel costs last year, when the Brent crude rate was well below $100 a barrel. Despite the continuing global economic slump, the benchmark price recently peaked at $125, kicked up by fears of hostilities in the Middle East over Irans nuclear facilities. Roubini notes that U.S. gasoline now sells at nearly $4 a gallon even before summer holidays raise demand and costs even more. And he fears that if the U.N. Security Council fails to get the Iranians to behave, the Americans and the Israelis may find that force is needed to restrain Tehrans nuke ambitions. Then theres the improving world growth prospects. As they improve, so does the outlook for energy demand and consequent price increases. Guess what a double surge of global growth and Gulf conflict would do
REFINING
$/bbl MBD Net Refinery
Oil Burden
Chart from International Energy Agency presentation, The Future of Energy Seminar, 2012
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
17
to oil. And if fuel prices spike even more, we could see a repeat of the 1974-75, 198082 and 1990-91 global recessions, which Roubini points out were all preceded by skyrocketing energy prices. In her presentation to a Mexico City seminar, The Future of Energy, executive director Maria van der Hoeven of the Paris-based International Energy Agency reported that fuel prices remain at historically high levels. West Texas crude (WTI in the chart below) matches its 1980 peak in real terms. The share of global GDP spent on oil is back to the 2008 level of 5%, the rate prevalent during past oil shocks. Moving forward, Hoeven sees a longer term trend to higher prices, but short-term risk to economic recovery. The Petroleum Authority of Thailand (PTT by its Thai initials) is also watching sanctions against Irans oil exports as well as refinery closures. Last month its Petrochemicals and Refining Integrated Synergy Management
or PRISM units Oil Market and Price Outlook Report cited the European Unions ban on Iranian oil starting July. Thats about a million barrels a day in crude that would have to be sourced elsewhere, putting pressure on supplies and prices. As for refinery closures, large and uncompetitive facilities in North America and Europe are due to shut down this year. New capacity especially in Asia will come in, but the shift to new refiners will not be smooth, further disrupting supplies. Amid last years oil price escalation triggered by the Arab Spring turmoil, the World Bank assessed the impact of fuel inflation on economic growth. It projected that every $50/ barrel increase could pare between one-half and a full percentage point off global growth. Going to the country level, for oil-importing developing economies like the Philippines, the reduction could be as much as 1.5 points. For East Asian oil importers, a 1.9-point drop was forecast for 2012 (see table).
CONSTRAINTS
Addition and Demand
Global oil demand Asia - Closue Europe - Closure
North America Closure
Projected change in economic growth and current account balance, in percent of GDP
Impact of a $50/barrel price hike (11q2-12q2) due to uncertainty Real GDP 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012
Africa FSU Europe Latin America North America Middle East Asia Net Refinery Addition
Oil importing
RISM Oil Market and Price Outlook Report, February 2012
Oil exporting
Low-income
Middle income
Oil importing
Oil exporting
Oil importing
Oil exporting
High income
Oil importing
Oil exporting
World
2013
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
-0.1
-0.6
-0.4
-0.6
1.6
-0.4
-1.2
-0.6
-1.2
1.5
0..0
-0.7
0.3
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.3
-0.1
1.4
0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.8
-0.4
-0.8
-1.9
-0.3
-1.7
-1.2
0.7
-1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.5
-0.8
Source: World Bank commentary GDP impact of oIl price shock, 2011
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
18
Upsides and downsides. Beyond fuel inflation, global prospects offer more hope than they did in the new year. In a Makati Business Club briefing last month, Bart Van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board grouping of major corporations and research entities around the world, gave his updated outlook for key global regions. Economic conditions in the U.S. continue to firm up, but improvements in jobs and productivity are key, he said. Recent data suggest a deep recession in the Euro Area may be avoided, for now. As for developing nations, While the global manufacturing cycle has bottomed out, overall, emerging economies are adjusting to slower trend growth. Among notable positives are gains in U.S. employment, some economic growth in Europe, and a rebound in world commodity prices after last years steep falls. Charting the improved mood is The Conference Boards leading economic index (LEI), which measures factors that normally point to future directions on key economies. The indices began to stop falling and for America, Europe, China and Japsn, even turn upward (see chart). Also worth checking out are LEI upticks for Britain and Spain, plus the latest barometers for Japan and Korea. Van Ark was quick to add, however, that downside risks continue to dominate the outlook. The gap between output and potential in Western economies remains substantial, though its declining in America and Germany. Wage growth is very slow, holding back consumer spending. For Europe, Van Ark poses two scenarios: just escape with second-half growth this year (as the European Commission
BOTTOMING OUT?
Chart from The Conference Board briefing to Makati Business Club, 2012
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
19
projected in its interim economic forecast last month) and too little too late leading to a deeper euro zone recession. As for emerging economies, the economist said tighter labor and product markets raise inflationary pressures. Across the Atlantic, London-based EIU also offered a mixed prognosis of lessthan-doomsday indicators and continued global economic slowdown. Risks ease, but remain substantial, published midFebruary, forecast 3.1% world economic growth this years, barely above the 2.5% global recession level. The most significant development was the European Central Banks injection of about half a trillion euros in loans to 800 banks by March 1, the second liquidity boost after a first offering last December. EIU also noted the 2.8% annualized fourth-quarter 2011 economic expansion
in the U.S., the fastest in 15 months, and tipped a milder recession in Europe. And while emerging markets are making painful adjustments to slower global expansion, East Asia and Oceania will still manage world-leading 6% growth with no hard landing in China. The China factor. If America and Europe look to avoid doomsday, China is tipped to keep leading global growth despite some deceleration. In its China Economic Outlook update last month, the IMF expects expansion to still exceed 8% for 2012-13, with inflation moderating to more comfortable levels and the property market deflating. If Europe goes deep into recession, which seems much less likely now, the Chinese economy could see an abrupt drop in growth. But the good news, says the Fund, is that China has room for a
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
20
countervailing fiscal response. Translation: Beijing can pump up state spending to keep industries humming while waiting for the world slump to pass. But even now, private consumer and investment spending have become the main economic drivers, as economists have urged to reduce Chinas export dependence and its mammoth trade surplus (see charts). Other China-watching institutions are seeing the late-2011 gloom lift. Just last November, reports AlsoSprachAnalyst.com, Japanese investment bank Nomura saw a one-in-three chance of a hard landing by 2014, due to excessive lending, ineffective monetary policy, poor-performing but spoiled state firms, and demographic challenges like declining cheap rural labor.
Domestic Demand Rising, Inflation and Trade Surplus Declining Domestic demand remains strong as stimulus is withdrawn. Household spending has moderated to pre-cisis levels... ...and private investment has taken over from public stimulus...
While the trade surplus continued to fall through the global cisis
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
21
But this month, Nomura raised its 2012 China growth forecast to 8.2% from 7.9%. Main reason: anticipated interest rate cuts and lower bank reserve requirements, which are expected to boost growth above 8% starting July. The expected monetary loosening is deemed crucial to unwinding problems in the property sector mainly behind the hard-landing fears. Funding is all that matters during industry consolidation, argued New York bank J.P. Morgans 2012 China property outlook last October. While it expected no policy easing for real estate this year, the improved inflation picture may persuade the Peoples Bank of China to loosen up. Sure enough, in its February update, China: The PBoC's 2012 outlook for
the Hong Kong-based British bank. Whats in all this for us? With the world economy moving back from the brink of doomsday debacles in America, Europe and China, prospects for sideline economies are also looking up, especially the Asia-Pacific region. Asia still leads. In its regional economic briefing on January 30, IMF Asia and Pacific Department Director Anoop Singh said five minutes into the press conference: Looking ahead, thanks to robust domestic demand and other conditions, we expect growth in the Asia-Pacific region to remain close to 6% in 2012, recovering further to 6.5% in 2013. And most importantly, emerging Asia will remain the fastestgrowing region in the world, led by China and India. China is tipped to growth 8%8.5%, and India 7%.
IMF Asia-Pacific Director Anoop Singh: Emerging Asia will remain the fastest-growing region IMF Video
growth and inflation, HSBC noted that the central bank increased its growth target for cash and short-term bank deposits (M2) to 14% this year, up from 13.1% in 2011. Growth is the key priority, summed up
On the Philippines, the Funds March 5 update says: We expect that the combination of the fiscal stimulus that has been put in place, supportive monetary conditions, and continued robust
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
22
remittances will allow domestic demand to pick up in 2012 to offset the drag from weak external demand. As recounted in the January report on Philippines-IMF consultations, the government agreed with the Fund to continue pursuing fiscal consolidation, including new tax measures to support further development spending. Achieving the authorities fiscal objectives will require a sizable tax effort, the
While necessariiy focused on navigating the current turbulent global economic environment, the Philippines must also address longstanding obstacles to development. In the section Building Faster and More Inclusive Growth, starting on page 19 in the IMF report, policies for faster growth, higher investment, and more social spending, especially in health care, are needed to accelerate the economy and spread its benefits.
IMF Mission Chief Vivek Arora: Expectations for a return to 5% potential growth rate IMF Video
IMF stressed. The increase in revenue that would be required for fulfilling the 2012 deficit and expenditure objectives would be delivered by the improvements in tax administration and the sin tax and incentives measures. As for the Philippines, there will be sustained funding for key priorities for inclusive growth such as social safety nets, human capital, and infrastructure, as the previous administration had also done.
As for the growth picture this year and next, IMF Mission Chief for the Philippines Vivek Arora said in a video briefing this month that gross domestic product should expand by 4.2% in 2012 with more government spending, continued strong remittances, and monetary easing. His prognosis for the medium term: 5% potential growth rate for the country. As long as the bottom doesnt fall out of America, Europe or China.
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
23
Increasing Intelligence
By Marishka Noelle M. Cabrera
Are we born as smart as we're ever going to be, or can we actually get smarter?
STRATEGY POINTS
Studies have shown that intelligence can be improved by boosting working memory, music and arts training, meditation, exercise, and the right attitude
Is intelligence unchanging over time or can it be learned? In this particular aspect of the naturevs.-nurture debate, scientific studies are finding that learning can be enhanced and intelligence boosted by a number of techniques and practices, along with a little discipline and some hard work. A Newsweek article entitled, Buff Your Brain examines different ways in which intelligence can be raised, challenging the long-held notion that intelligence is "largely unchangeable after early childhood." Citing a 2008 study led by Susan Jaeggi of the University of Michigan, author Sharon Begley writes, Although working on short-term memorybasically, the brains scratch padhas long been considered just one component of overall IQ, recent research shows that it may in fact be the lever that can raise overall intelligence.
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
24
In the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Jaeggis team presents evidence that fluid intelligence is trainable, and that the more working memory training, the more improvement in fluid intelligence. Fluid intelligence is the ability to reason and to solve new problems independently of previously acquired knowledge. Instead of relying on quick fixes, increasing mental prowess is possible with intensive training. [I]ntelligence comes from having more neurons and synapses (connections between neurons). The creation of new neurons (neurogenesis) and synapses makes learning possible, the article adds. Bounce back from your mistakes. It starts with changing your mindset. A study featured in an article in Scientific American found that individuals who think that intelligence is malleable are most likely to bounce back from their mistakes and make fewer errors in the future. By asking 25 undergraduate students to participate in a repetitive computer task and recording electrical responses in the brain when they made a mistake, researchers at Michigan State University discovered that the students who were growth-minded, i.e., those who thought intelligence could be learned, elicited stronger error-positivity responses than the other subjects and subsequently made fewer mistakes. Error positivity represents the desire to fix the mistake. A growth mind-set is about focusing on the processas in the experiencerather than only on the outcome, says lead author Jason Moser, a clinical psychologist at Michigan State. In his book, Intelligence and How to Get It, Richard E. Nisbett says that Believing that intelligence is under your controland having parents who demand achievementcan do wonders. The University of Michigan professor encourages readers to shake off the yoke of hereditarianism in our concept of intelligence, and believe that much can be done to increase intelligence and academic achievement.
Get lessons in music and arts. In a research report published in Psychological Science, author E. Glenn Schellenberg of the University of Toronto at Mississuaga found that children who received music lessons exhibited greater increases in full-scale IQ than those who received drama lessons or no lessons at all. One explanation for the results is that music lessons involve a multiplicity of experiences that could generate improvement in a wide range of abilities. An October press release on the website of the Association for Psychological
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
Get smart 25
Science reports that Canadian scientists have found exciting evidence that preschoolers were able to enhance verbal intelligence with 20 days of classroom instruction involving interactive, musicbased cognitive training cartoons. Forty-eight preschoolers from ages 4-6 were divided into two groups: one received music-based training involving a combination of motor, perceptual, and cognitive skills, with training on rhythm, pitch, melody, and basic musical concepts, while the other group underwent visual art training, which focused on visuo-spatial skills relating to concepts, such as shape, dimension, color, line, and perspective. Verbal IQ tests were given after the training to assess the childrens word recall, attention, and ability to solve problems using language-based reasoning. Noninvasive brain imaging was also used to detect functional brain changes. The study found that compared to the group that received visual art training where no significant verbal intelligence increase occurred, 90% of children in the musicbased training exhibited intelligence improvements. Furthermore, arts training can boost attention and cognition. Attention plays a pivotal role in learning, memory, and overall cognitive performance. In an article on the website of The Dana Foundation, Michael Posner, Ph.D. and Brenda Patoine argue that focused training in any art form can strengthen the brains attention system, which in turn can improve cognition. The brain has a system of neural pathways dedicated to attention, the article says, and training these attention networks can improve general measures of intelligence.
Put another way, behavior shapes and sculpts brain networks: What you do in your day-to-day life is reflected in the wiring patterns of your brain and the efficiency of your brains networks, the authors note. As such, they continue, Practicing for long periods of time and in an absorbed way can cause changes in more than the specific brain network related to the skill. Sustained focus can also produce stronger and more efficient attention networks, and these key networks in turn affect cognitive skills more generally.
Meditation leads to better attention. A study by Dr. Yi-Yuan Tang of the Dalian University of Technology in China, Michael Posner, Ph.D., and their colleagues published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that practicing mediation, even on a short-term basis, can improve attention and selfregulation. Findings reveal that individuals who participated in a five-day meditation practice using integrative body-mind training (IBMT) exhibited better attention and more stress control than those who received relaxation training.
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
26
The result demonstrated that the shortterm IBMT practice can influence the efficiency of executive attention. Because the efficiency of executive attention improved, we expected better selfregulation of emotion, the paper explains. IBMT is a method in which there is no effort to control thoughts, rather it promotes a state of restful alertness that allows a high degree of awareness of body, breathing, and external instructions from a compact disc. Keep a sound mind in a sound body. A University of California, Los Angeles study published in the American Journal of Geriatric Psychology reveals simple lifestyle changes can improve cognitive function and enhance brain efficiency. Featured in an article in ScienceDaily, the study shows that incorporating memory exercises, a healthy diet, physical fitness, and stress reduction can have positive effects on the brain.
Beyond IQ
While an IQ of 130 can definitely earn you bragging rights, there are still various facets of intelligence that can influence success and achievement in work and personal life. Take emotional intelligence, for instance. In a paper by Peter Salovey and Daisy Grewal of Yale University published in Current Directions in Psychological Science, emotional intelligence predicts success in important domains, among them personal and work relationships. Emotionally intelligent individuals tend to keep happier, more positive relationships, and may have the capacity to increase favorable reciprocity within a relationship. Spatial intelligence, on the other hand, is a cognitive ability that many modern assessments fail to tap into, says an article in Scientific American. Also known as spatial visualization, this ability is said to play a critical role in engineering and scientific disciplines, since it is a capacity for mentally generating, rotating, and transforming visual images. Spatial intelligence is one of the three cognitive abilitiesalong with quantitative and verbal abilitythat is crucial in developing expertise in learning and work settings, the article says. However, verbally-loaded IQ tests and other standardized tests used today do not adequately measure this trait. Individuals gifted with this ability, therefore, find limited opportunities and experiences to serve as their outlets. Attitude plays a role, as well. In an article from the International Business Times, researchers from the University of Edinburgh, University of Applied Sciences Northwestern Switzerland, and Goldsmiths University of London found curiosity coupled with diligence can significantly influence academic performance. [A]verageintelligence students shone as brightly as those deemed intelligent, the article reports. Lastly, cognitive psychologist Robert J. Sternberg suggests in his The Theory of Successful Intelligence a broader view of intelligence because it defines it in terms of the ability to achieve ones goals in life, within ones sociocultural context.
For 14 days, participants in the test group followed healthy lifestyle strategies, such as stimulating the brain with memory exercises and crossword puzzles, daily walks, a balanced diet full of omega-3
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
Get smart
27
fats, antioxidants, and low glycemic carbohydrates like whole grains, and relaxation exercises. After which, brain function was tested using positron emission tomography (PET) scans. It was found that the test group exhibited a five percent decrease in brain metabolism in the part of the brain directly linked to working memory called the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex. This suggests an increased efficiency so the brain didn't have to work as hard to accomplish tasks. Lead investigator Dr. Gary Small of UCLA notes, [S]tress causes the body to release cortisol, a hormone that can impair memory and damage brain memory cells. In another Newsweek article by Begley, she relates the benefits that exercise has for the brain. Exercise stimulates the production of new synapses, the connections that constitute functional circuits and whose capacity and efficiency underlie superior intelligence, she writes.
Matthew Walker shows that an afternoon nap can, in fact, restore alertness and improve neurocognitive functioning than before the nap. An article in Psychology Today reports that participants who took a 90-minute nap recorded better learning performance than those who stayed awake. Moreover, the team believes that the results are such because of the way in which memories are transferred from temporary and limited storage in the hippocampus into the larger and more permanent storage in the prefrontal cortex. The memory-refreshing process, an article from ScienceDaily says, happens when people are engaged in a specific stage of sleep. Video gaming can be beneficial. While video games are normally categorized under distractions and thus, should be avoided, there are claims that gaming can actually boost
Take a nap. Rather than relentlessly trying to finish a report or analyze a proposal, take a nap to boost your brainpower instead. Research at the University of California, Berkeley led by
mental capital. The study, Effect of brain-training and Gaming on Fluid Intelligence, published in the Journal of CyberTherapy and Rehabilitation of the Belgium-based Virtual Reality Medical
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
28
Institute considered whether exposure to computer games can lead to superior cognitive functioning measured by the Ravens Advanced Progressive Matrices. Researchers found that participants who trained longer got better scores than those with shorter training periods, concluding that exposure to video games may improve fluid intelligence.
Get smart
attention, and reaction times. For older adults, a virtual realityenhanced exercise or exergaming can delay cognitive decline more than traditional exercise, Medscape Medical News reports. Results of the clinical trial published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine show that older adults who participated in cybercycling achieved better cognitive function than traditional exercisers. In its abstract, findings suggest simultaneous cognitive and physical exercise has greater potential for preventing cognitive decline. Take a holistic approach. To end, improving intelligence requires a holistic approach. A good diet and overall physical wellbeing will inevitably lead to better brain function and emotional health. Keeping your mind clear and uncluttered will allow for sound reasoning and better judgment. Nevertheless, being smart does not happen overnight. Your brain needs enough training and stimulation to reach its full potential, coupled with selfdiscipline and attention control. There are no shortcuts, no magic formulasjust old-fashioned hard work.
Citing previous studies done by other researchers, the paper further notes the benefits of computer gaming, such as improvements in attentional processes, perceptual-motor skills, spatial cognition, sensory processes, visual selective
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
29
The
cenSEI Report
30
BUSINESS
cenSEI
T H E
Report
STRATEGY POINTS
Asia has the largest growth potential for themed amusement, due to increasing numbers of tourists from China, aggressive marketing and the establishment of new attractions Chinese and South Korean theme parks show the strongest growth in terms of number of visitors
The amusement business is coming up big for theme-park operators in Asia, as tourists and residents seeking recreation have been flocking to their attractions over the last couple of years. In fact, Asia has the biggest growth potential in the amusement industry, with the region projected to grow at an annual growth rate of 6.3% from 2009 to 2017, according to an article posted in March on Theme Park Post, an independent Belgium-based site dedicated to news and information about parks and amusement industry.
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
31
Citing US research firm Global Industry Analysts (GIA) global report on Theme Park markets (the report can be purchased from the companys website), the article says the growth will be largely due to strong economic growth, rising standards of living, income levels, discretionary income, and increased per capita spending on entertainment and leisure. In 2010, the total attendance for the top 15 Asian theme parks increased by 7.3%, according to the 2010 Theme Index: The Global Attractions Attendance Report from research firm AECOM Economics and an industry consultancy, Themed Entertainment Association. The study, which looks at attendance figures of theme and amusement parks and waterparks around the world, also indicates that the strongest growth is coming from China and South Korea. The growth, according to Chris Yoshii, AECOM global director for Economics, can be attributed
to three factorsincrease in visitors from mainland China, aggressive marketing and the establishment of new attractions. 2010 represented what Yoshii called a solid bounceback from the challenging year of 2009, when the world theme park market sagged as a result of the recessions downward pressure on consumer spending. As per the 2009 theme index report, the total attendance for the Asian Top 15 theme parks was 77.6 million, a decrease from just under 80 million in 2008. Ten out of these parks witnessed decline ranging from less than one percent to almost 12%. The 2009 report identified global financial slowdown and recession, outbreak of H1N1, and poor weather conditions in some markets as the culprit. China, South Korea drive growth in themed attraction industry. Among the Asian countries, China and South Korea theme parks showed the strongest growth. In 2010, South Koreas Everland and Lotte
5.9% TOKYO DISNEYLAND Tokyo, Japan 5.5% TOKO DISNEYSEA Tokyo, Japan 2.0% UNIVERSAL STUDIOS JAPAN Osaka, Japan 11.6% EVERLAND Gyeonggi-Do, South Korea 22.4% LOTTEWORLD Seoul, South Korea 13.0% H.K. DISNEYLAND Hong Kong S.A.R. 6.3% OCEAN PARK Kuwana, Japan -5.0% NAGASHIMA SPA LAND Yokohama, Japan -6.0% YOKOHAMA HAKKEIJIMA SEA PARADISE Shenzhen, China 21.4% OCT EAST Shenzhen, China 8.9% HAPPY ALLEY Shenzhen, China 17.8% HAPPY ALLEY Beijing, China -12.8% WINDOW OF THE WORLD Shenzhen, China -4.0% DUNIA FANTASI Jakarta, Indonesia 0.0% CHIMELONG PARADISE Guangzhou, China
Source: 2010 Theme Index: The Global Attractions Attendance Report, AECOM Economics and Themed Entertainment Association, p. 28
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
32
World welcomed almost 6.9 million and 5.6 million visitors respectively, an increase of 11.6% and 22.4% from 2009 figures, according to the 2010 theme index report. Lotte World, the world's largest indoor theme park opened in 1989 in Seoul, is within a huge recreation complex along with hotels, shopping centers, museum, sports and activity facility, ranks fifth as top theme park in Asia in terms of attendance. Another entertainment destination will rise in South Korea by 2013, as Lotte World sealed a US$22-million waterpark project contract last month, the largest contract in the waterpark industry, with Canadian manufacturer WhiteWater West Industries. The 36-year-old Everland theme park, operated by Samsung Everland, which is a subsidiary of technology giant Samsung Group, has 40 attractions, including a zoo and accommodations, is the fourth-leading Asian theme park in terms of visitors. In 2003, Samsung Everland increased its revenues to US$82.0 million and ranked 12th among the top 100 brands in Korea, Samsung reported. The increase of visitors was largely due to the influx of Chinese tourists to South Korea. In the first nine months of 2011, 1.6 million Chinese tourists visited South Korea, an increase of about 17% from 2010, based on a Nov. 2011 People's Daily article citing figures from the Korean Tourism Organization. Meanwhile, China has a huge market for theme-park operators, according to Wu Wenxue, vice-chairman of the China Tourism Association, who also projected that over the next five years, the market demand for theme parks may surpass US$1.6 billion per year, based on a Nov. 2010 China Daily report. The country houses five of Asias top theme parks OCT East, Happy Valley and Window of the World in Shenzhen, Happy Valley in Beijing and Chimelong Paradise in Guangzhou all of which welcomed more visitors in 2010, except for the Chimelong Paradise, which maintained its 2009 attendance levels. China's top theme-park developer, OCT Holding Company, has invested more than US$2.5 billion over the past 25 years to build theme parks, which have hosted 164 million visitors and earned a total of US$2.7 billion as of 2010, according to the China Daily report. OCT said it invests at least US$4.7 million in every theme park to develop new recreation projects every year.
Everlands T Express, launched in 2006, is the first the largest of any kind in South Korea robbalvey,
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
33
Liu Pingchun, chief executive officer of Shenzhen OCT Holding Company, said he expects the number of visitors to rise to 30 million a year by 2020. More crowds at Asian Disney parks. Meanwhile, Walt Disney reported profits of $1.46 billion for the fourth quarter of 2011, a 12% year-on-year increase, on revenues of $10.8 billion, a 1% increase, according to a BBC report in February. Officials attributed the higher revenues in part to the opening of Toy Story Land at Hong Kong Disneyland in November. Toy Story Land is part of an HK$6.2-billion expansion plan that will see 30 new attractions over the next five years. Hong Kong Disneyland, which is majorityowned by the Hong Kong government, has been battling to increase its popularity since opening in 2005. The park was able to trim its annual operating loss by 45% to
about $92 million in 2010, according to an Agence France Presse article published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer in September. Tokyo Disneyland, the most visited theme park in the region and the third among top amusement parks worldwide in 2010, incurred a consolidated net loss of US$45 million in the second quarter of 2011, due to the suspension of operations for a month following the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Moreover, a new Disney resort in mainland China the company's first will rise in Shanghai in 2015, after the Chinese government approved Walt Disney Companys US$4.4-billion Disney resort plan, as reported in an April 2011 New York Times article. The Disney park component alone will cost U$3.7 billion. There will also be two hotels,
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
34
TCR photo
Cyclone roller co
a lake and a shopping district, bringing the total size of the first phase to about 963 acres, according to the report. For the 35-year old Ocean Park in Hong Kong, the fiscal year from July 2010 to June 2011 was one of the most crucial years in its history as it posted a record of 5.9 million visits, according to the Ocean Park Corporation 2010 2011 Annual Report. Our revenue broke the billion dollar mark for the first time ever, ending at HK$1.2 billionincluding US$47.3 million of inpark revenue and US$113.5 million of admission revenue, an increase of 40% and 22%, respectively, compared to the previous year, Chief Executive Tom Mehrmann said in his statement for the report (p. 15). Hong Kong's Ocean Park ranked 6th among top Asian theme parks and 17th among
theme parks worldwide in terms of number of visitors. Integrated resorts with theme parks drive increased profits. The mix of integrated resort (IR) and theme parks is appealing to a broad target market, thereby generating significant returns and increased project value, Christian Aaen, co-founder of international advisory firm Entertainment + Culture Advisors said in his presentation at the International Association for Amusement Parks and Attractions' June 2011 Asian Attraction Expo in Singapore. According to Aaen, in the past 10 to 15 years, related peripheral property developments have become increasingly important for the development of new attractions and theme park destinations worldwide, especially as part of the integrated-resort concept.
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
35
TCR photo
IR, a Singapore-coined term, refers to a destination development with significant scope and scale, which holds a variety of leisure and tourism land-uses to create compelling multiple-day destination resorts driven by the following key components: Hotels/resorts Casino gaming Theme attractions/cultural facilities Convention facilities Entertainment shows Luxury retail and fine dining Spa Golf
and gaming company, is part of Singapores biggest IR, a 49-hectare development called Resorts World Sentosa (RWS). The S$6.59-billion mega-resort opened in 2010, with four hotels in January, the Resorts World Casino in February and Universal Studios in March of that year. Resorts World Sentosa has Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions (MICE) facilities that include one of Asias largest Grand Ballrooms. Capitalizing on a casino component would allow for significant recreation, entertainment, and MICE facility development and investment without subsidies from the government, Aaen said in his presentation. 'Park within a park' concept seen as significant trend. AECOMs Yoshii was also positive about the resort business model, saying that it is drawing a lot of interest as a way of cross-subsidizing the expense of a theme park with a casino. Similarly, the GIA in its global report identified the park within park concept where most of the theme parks are adding second-gate attractions and several hotel rooms to restructure
The Singaporean government uses IR to drive both its national tourism plan and economic development in general. Universal Studios Singapore, a whollyowned subsidiary of Genting Singapore Public Limited Company, a leisure
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
36
parks into IRs -- to be a significant trend in the theme-park market. Moreover, it said that investments in park upgrades such as installation of new rides, creation of new zones in the park, and deployment of interactive and wireless technologies are likely to boost the number of visitors in the upcoming years. Another key technology trend is the use of simulation technologies, and virtual reality to replicate natural scenarios. Highend visual imagery with sophisticated special effects designed to optimize visitor experience is likely to bring greater crowds to the parks, the GIA said in the report. A 2000 Network of European and US Regional and Urban Studies paper, The economic impact of theme parks on regions, by Michael Braun, identified the following important components of theme parks for insuring an influx of tourists, citing a Economic Research Association 1998 study: Be unique, a "must see" destination. This can be accomplished through character development, architectural form, natural features, special events and programming or a combination thereof. Have large scale and a critical mass of attractions. Investment levels to impact international tourism generally must exceed US$150 million. Combine high technology with human scale and quality service. Investments in the thrill hardware must be combined with a high level of service from the host and hostess. Encourage overnight stays. Day visitors or tourists who stay with friends and relatives generate only 20%of the economic impact of tourists staying in hotels and motels. Have complementary destination activities. Tourist-oriented theme parks should be part of a mix of recreation and leisure activities. A true tourist destination would also have supporting recreation uses such as high quality hotels, convention and conference facilities, resorts, recreational shopping and dining experiences, and sports activities including golf, tennis, and waterrelated
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
37
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
38
activities, and excursions into nearby local tourism areas. Support media (TV) coverage and exposure. TV exposure is very important in creating awareness in tourism markets. (pp. 51-52) Asias emerging middle class drives theme-park boom. As to the prospects for theme parks, AECOM Economics global director Yoshi said that the growth of middle class in Asia is phenomenonal and will drive huge investments in theme parks in the coming decade. According to the World Banks Global Economic Prospects 2007 report, the worlds middle class will consist of 1.2 billion people in 2030. For its part, the Asian Development Bank, in discussing the rise of Asia's middle class, figures that from 1990 to 2008, developing Asia's poor population shrank from 79% to 43% of the total, while the middle-income population grew from 21% to 56% of the total. Meanwhile, GIA said focused promotion of entertainment and tourism by governments in Asia is expected to improve per capita spending and attendance in theme parks in Asia particularly in China, India, Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.
Ferrari World's Formula Rossa in Abu Dhabi --the world's fastest roller coaster--reaches speed up to 240 km/h (149mph) or 0-100 km/h in two seconds
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
39
The
cenSEI Report
40
TECHNOLOGY
cenSEI
T H E
Report
A car that drives itself sounds like a concept straight out of science fiction, outright fanciful, even for technologically savvy generations. But as it turns out, car manufacturers have been working on it for a while, and not just to draw wows. There has been another impetus for developing a driverless car: safety. According to a CNN report, 30,000 people are killed in car crashes every year in the United States alone, and driver behavior is a contributing factor in over 90% of all accidents, based on research at Volvo. Hence, the drive, pun intended, to develop a driverless car. With or without you, comprehensive safety features. But even with someone behind the wheel, the safety features would be comprehensive, as listed by financialand business-advice website Kiplinger.com. To begin with, there will be rearview cameras, which could be standard in vehicles as early as 2014. Pedestrian
STRATEGY POINTS
The car of the future will become increasingly autonomous, with self-driving cars becoming available by the year 2020. It will be intelligent and connected, as demanded by the consumer. All new vehicles released in 2020 will have significantly greater fuel efficiency and lower CO2 emissions, achieved through a mix of technologies: biofuels, CNG and LPG, as well as different levels of hybridization.
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
detection and night vision, using anything from infrared technology to light amplification, will allow for quicker reaction time. Adaptive cruise control, already available in some luxury models, will be standard, for helping one keep a safe distance from the car in front while cruising at highway speeds. The same safety features are predicted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technologys technology review. A combination of blind-spot monitors and lane-departure warning systems means a car that will not allow the driver to change lanes if the next lane is occupied. Hows that for a smart car? And airbags will be placed in every imaginable corner, including the seatbelt. And then there is Volvos vision for 2020: the injury-proof car, as reported by Reuters in 2008. The goal is to eradicate the roughly 1.2 million deaths from car crashes worldwide each year. The car will use radar, sonar and other sensors
to gather information from all directions, and therefore keep a safe distance. In the event of a crash, the car can take over and steer or brake on its own. This self-braking system would halve the current death rate by reducing the pre-impact speed by 15 km/hour, according to an official of the Swedish National Road Administration cited in the story. If General Motors has its way, vehicles will be self-driving by 2020, according to CNN in late 2011. Semi-autonomous features are already in current models, such as GPS, surround sensors, cameras and wireless connection. If combined with car-to-infrastructure communication, a car will essentially be able to drive itself. The same news report lists Audi and Chinas First Auto works also developing selfdriving cars. More recently, The Economist mentions more models going the way of increasing vehicle autonomy. Volvos new V40 small hatchback can maintain a safe distance
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
42
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
43
from the next car, and stay in lane without human intervention. It can also brake automatically when it senses an imminent collision, just like Fords new B-Max minivan. Ford has already demonstrated its ability to hear if the car in front is about to make a sudden stop. Nissan is developing software that anticipates a drivers next move, like adjusting speed and position of a car going into a turn. The well-connected car. Todays Internet-savvy generation will demand staying online even in transit. The standard will be an online car, able to communicate with other cars and survey the environment as well.
As if the proliferation of notebooks, netbooks, and tablets in the last decade wasn't enough, the car of the future will take mobile computing to a whole new level. John Leech, consulting firm KPMGs head of automotive in the UK, shared his views in an article on BBCs business news site last January.
Car-to-car communication
Not quite in the tradition of Herbie, the Love Bug, or Knight Rider's KITT, cars will be able to talk with other cars, and with properly equipped objects in the immediate environment, according to a Feb. 2010 piece in Car and Driver. Several companies are now testing these systems that allow vehicles to communicate with stop lights, report traffic to the grid, and warn other vehicles of accidents nearby, saving fuel, time and even lives. Some privacy issues could come up, but, as the article put it, we think the Twitter Nation has already blindly given up that right. BMW is busy fine-tuning their innovative car-to-car technology, which enables them to let other vehicles know about their location, condition, even current congestion and road conditions. The data is sent directly to all relevant vehicles in the vicinity using mobile WLAN technology. Ford is also perfecting this feature using WiFi and GPS technology, as reported in January 2010 in mashable.com. This feature is not being developed by the carmakers individually, since if a BMW talks, which cars, aside from other BMWs, can actually listen? In the U.S., the government is funding the creation of a standard design to allow cars of different brands to talk. Floating car data uses data from mobile phones to track traffic congestion, the average speed and direction. It does not require costly infrastructure and equipment, and is not affected by adverse weather, making it an attractive choice for an intelligent transport system. This can also be used to provide advance warning to motorists of traffic jams, accidents and other emergency situations ahead, with the complementary service of advising on alternative routes or other recommendations.
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
44
He said, Global car executives believe that as consumers become accustomed to instant access at home and in the office, they will expect the same services when on the move in their vehicles. In the future, connectivity will not simply be a nice to have feature, but an intrinsic part of the vehicle. The same financial advice site, Kiplinger, elaborates on this connectivity, and other abilities. Ford is developing an intelligent vehicle system that uses advanced Wi-Fi technology, transmits your vehicles location and detects vehicles surrounding you. Bluetooth will be standard, to allow Web surfing and social networking on the road. A simpler, hands-free system will help you find your way and your favorite music -- with ease. Other features to enjoy with stronger connectivity include a more accurate and up-to-date GPS map with richer data, and access to an unlimited supply of YouTube videos for the kids to watch while on the road. The fuel-efficient hybrid. U.S. President Barack Obama has announced fueleconomy standards of 62 miles per gallon for cars by 2025, while the EUs Renewable Energy Directive mandates that 10 percent of energy sources to be used for transportation must come from renewable fuels by 2020. According to Automotive 2020, an August 2008 study by IBM, executive ratings of the global portfolio of new vehicle production in 2020 indicate that executives expect by the end of the decade, 35% is the figure they expect environmentally friendly vehicles to comprise (p. 10). The remaining 65% will still be relying fully on fossil fuels (page 7), as compared to the 2008 figure of 95%. All new vehicles in 2020 will have some level of hybridization, the study predicts (page 8). The IBM study discusses the different basic levels of hybridization in the cars of the future: Micro hybrids with stop-start capability and regenerative braking hold the potential to make sizeable contributions to carbonemission reduction and lower fossil-fuel consumption. Current projections include estimates of up to 10% reduction in carbon emissions and fuel savings of up to 13% under certain driving conditions. Mild hybrids, designed to provide extra power as needed but incapable of propelling the vehicle alone, are gaining attention, with several manufacturers announcing agreements to collaborate and develop this technology. Full hybrids, not unlike some vehicles available today (powered exclusively by the electric motor under certain operating conditions) will continue to see extensive development. Alternative financing models will fuel the affordability of this technology for consumers. Meanwhile, an independent site, HybridCars.com, provides basic information on different hybrid car technologies, including hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric, and E85 ethanol, among others, along with information on specific models in the U.S. market. Given the relative figures, which technology will lead the shift? Experts agree that the technology championing fuel efficiency will
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
45
The GM EN-V
This is a small electric car on two wheels that is networked for sharing information with other cars. It's also a self-driving car that can come to you and take you where you want to go.
Scion iQ EV
Toyotas own version of the compact city car is an electric version of the Scion iQ. According to the article, because the battery-powered iQ EV will have a range of less than 50 miles, Toyota will offer this car to car-sharing programs in big cities, as an alternative to car ownership for people who have just occasional errands to run.
Named after a Basque word meaning urban, this car was developed by the Massachussetts Institute of Technology, and is scheduled to be used in a pilot program in Spain's Basque region next year if it passes crash-testing. The car is meant to be a shared resource in a crowded area, and can fold up when parked.
The
cenSEI Report
cenSEI
T H E
Report
46
not be the battery electric vehicle, or the sustainability report for 2011, Ford talks hydrogen car, or an amazing engine with an of its Portfolio Approach, offering a host ultra-light body that can log 50 kilometers of choices to attain fuel efficiency, saying, per liter. It will be a mix of all three, and there may be no single winner on the race possibly a combination for the vehicle of the future. of said technologies. Two-thirds [of The choices will include Some will vouch for car electrification. respondents] six-speed transmissions and better engines, all-electric don't expect However, electric as well as hybrid cars, and the electric vehicles increased use of bio-fuels. CNG vehicles will not breach the 15% mark by 2025, to exceed 15% and LPG conversions offer according to a survey of annual global a lower-carbon option. Allof automotive industry electric and plug-in hybrids are sales in the next seen as the best option leaders released in 15 years 2012, this time by for urban commutes under consulting firm KPMG, 40 miles daily, with an - KPMG who says: Two thirds increasing range as battery [of respondents] dont technology improves. expect electric vehicles to exceed 15 percent of annual global sales A hydrogen car will remove the problem within the next 15 years. posed by batteries, and Ford is also developing technology in this area, but the The prohibitive cost and short lifespan lack of infrastructure, for example, solarof the electric-car battery remains a big powered fueling stations, is an obvious obstacle. An electric car like the Nissan Leaf impediment. Producing hydrogen still uses costs $35,200, about half of which comes fossil fuel, which negates the positive effects from the battery. In addition, a battery of a gas-free vehicle. has a limited lifespan, which depreciates it faster than conventional batteries. The Most car companies already have electric combination of its limited lifespan and and hybrid models to choose from. Toyotas continuing improvements in batter design Prius has been in the market for several constitutes a double-whammy for your car's years. BMW has its ActiveHybrid Series. value at resale time. Nissans Leaf is in direct competition with GMs Volt, in terms of size and range. On While battery design continues to improve, the high end of the market is Jaguars it remains a major expense, so carmakers hybrid C-X75, with CO2 emissions as low as are looking at a mixed offering for the the Prius but capable of accelerating to 100 immediate future. In its corporate websites mph in 6 seconds.
CONTENTS
NATION
WORLD
BUSINESS
TECHNOLOGY
47
The Pirate Bay plans robot drone servers to dodge law enforcement
The Pirate Bay has announced via blog post that it's planning to build and launch robot drone planes in order to host its servers in the sky. The logic behind the idea is to make it difficult for lawenforcement authorities to seize their machines without resorting to overtly aggressive means. This is only the latest in a continuing saga of ups and downs for the file-sharing site. In 2009, its founders were found guilty of breaching copyright law; subsequently, reports followed of a buyout in an attempt to legitimize the business. More recently, in connection with his involvement in the Pirate Bay, millionaire Carl Lundstrm was sentenced to four months of community service while electronically tagged.
The
cenSEI Report