Crime Pattern Theory

P. L. Brantingham, RCMP University Professor of Computational Criminology P. J. Brantingham, RCMP University Professor of Crime Analysis

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Crime Pattern Theory

Man is not a circle with a single centre; he is an ellipse with two foci: Facts are one, ideas are the other.

Victor Hugo; Les Miserables

Science is built up with facts, as a house is with stones. But a collection of facts is no more a science than a heap of stones is a house.

Henri Poincar; La Science et lHypothse

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Understanding Patterns

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Crime Pattern Theory

Complexity of the criminal event

Crime is not random Criminal opportunities are not random

Offenders and victims are not pathological in their use of time and space

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Crime opportunities and events:

Routine Activities
The daily rhythm, Activity Space

Awareness space
Around Activity Space

Social Networks
Family, friends, repeat contacts

Urban Structure
Nodes, paths, edges

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Rule 1: As individuals move through a series of activities they make decisions. When activities are repeated frequently, the decision process becomes regularized. This regularization creates an abstract guiding template. For decisions to commit a crime this is called a crime template.

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Rule 2: Most people do not function as individuals, but have a network of family, friends and acquaintances. These linkages have varying attributes and influence the decisions of others in the network.

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Rule 3: When individuals are making their decisions independently, individual decision processes and crime templates can be treated in a summative fashion, that is, average or typical patterns can be determined by combining the patterns of individuals.

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Rule 4: Individuals or networks of individuals commit crimes when there is a triggering event and a process by which an individual can locate a target or a victim that fits within a crime template. Criminal actions change the bank of accumulated experience and alter future actions.
Crime Attempted

Individual

Triggering Event

Past experiences Range of motivations Range of opportunities

Success/ Failure

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Rule 5: Individuals have a range of routine daily activities. Usually these occur in different nodes of activity such as home, work, school, shopping, entertainment or time with friends that are nodes of activity and along the normal pathways between these nodes.

Home Work

Shopping and Entertainment

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Work
Home

Shopping & Entertainment

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Shopping & Entertainment

Rule 6: People who commit crimes have normal spatio-temporal movement patterns like everyone else. The likely location for a crime is near this normal activity and awareness space.

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Potential Targets

Crime Template

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Target and Victim Locations Rule 7: Potential targets and victims have passive or active locations or activity spaces that intersect the activity spaces of potential offenders. The potential targets and victims become actual targets or victims when the potential offenders willingness to commit a crime has been triggered and when the potential target or victim fits the offenders crime template.

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W1

W2

H1

H2 S&E1
W3

S&E2

H3 S&E3
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Low Occurrence
H2

W3 W1 W2 High Occurrence

H1
H3

S&E
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Urban Backcloth Rule 8: The prior rules operate within the built urban form. Crime generators are created by high flows of people through and to nodal activity points. Crime attractors are created when targets are located at nodal activity points of individuals who have a greater willingness to commit crimes.

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Amsterdam Realtime:
project by Waag Society together with Esther Polak and Jeroen Kee.

http://www.waag.org/realtime/

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Nice weather cyclist

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Marathon Runner

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Snapshot of one week

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Understanding Patterns

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Data
Linked crimes and people for 5 yrs in BC All lots in Greater Vancouver Detailed street information
Many possibilities A few research projects mentioned here

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Katie Wuschke- Major Paths and Nodes

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Buffer (meters)

% of Crimes Contained by Buffer

Motor Vehicle Theft (a) % of Road % of Area Distance Contained by Contained by Buffer Buffer

Ratio: %Crime / %Area

Ratio: %Crime / % Road Distance

50 100 150 200 250 300

27.57 34.68 43.52 51.59 58.51 63.97

14.19 17.48 20.02 22.09 23.92 25.54

25.37 29.54 33.21 36.56 40.19 43.26

1.94 1.98 2.17 2.34 2.45 2.50

1.09 1.17 1.31 1.41 1.46 1.48

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Assaults (b)
Buffer (meters) % of Crimes Contained by Buffer % of Area Contained by Buffer % of Road Distance Contained by Buffer Ratio: %Crime / %Area Ratio: %Crime / % Road Distance

50 100 150 200 250 300

31.47 38.73 46.88 54.40 61.11 66.11

14.19 17.48 20.02 22.09 23.92 25.54

25.37 29.54 33.21 36.56 40.19 43.26

2.22 2.22 2.34 2.46 2.55 2.59

1.24 1.31 1.41 1.49 1.52 1.53

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Results: Phase I

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Nick Malleson- Leeds

Only burglary from properties in awareness space

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Agent Movements

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Space Syntax
Tools for the Analysis of Spatial Configurations in the Built Environment
Dr. Patricia Brantingham, Jordan Ginther

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Depthmap Measures
Clustering Coefficient
Used to detect junction points in space

Areas of high junctioness represent pause points where people may stop to scan the environment These areas, for example, would be ideal for the placement of security guards who need to be able to see large areas from one point

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Depthmap Measures
Control
For each point, represents a summation of the inverse connectivity of each connected cell (how many cells it can see) Cells with lower connectivity are given a higher weight, therefore cells with high control see a lot of cells which see relatively little Good areas to place security cameras, for example

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Depthmap Measures
Mean Depth
The average number of steps (turns) required to reach the current location from any point on the map Environments with overall low mean depth are generally easy to navigate Placement of fire extinguishers and alarms in areas of low mean depth would allow quick access in case of emergency

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Depthmap Measures
Integration
Identifies the level of accessibility at any given point in the environment Pedestrian movement tends towards areas of high integration as they are easier to navigate These would be good areas to place advertising or increased lighting, for example

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Depthmap Example
Kabul City Market
The highlighted area in the image represents the open air market and surrounding neighbourhood in Kabul Afghanistan Obtained from Google maps, therefore analysis was limited to the quality of the photo

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Depthmap Example
Kabul City Market
The areas in purple are representations of buildings which occupy the region All areas in yellow are considered open space navigable on foot

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Depthmap Example
Kabul City Market
This image represents the measure Control as determined by analysis of the open air market A measure based on connectivity, or how much a cell can see In order for a point to be controlling it should be able to see a large number of spaces which see relatively little The red and orange areas depicted in this image identify areas with high control
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Digitizing Peoples Perception of Crime

All polygons from the 1997 survey

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Perceptions of Crime Commercial Dr.

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Kernel Density Analysis

Kernel density estimation

Percent volume contour

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Topological transformations
common maps to cartograms

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Thanks!

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