Streamlining the Production Process

or How to play chess on your clients dime.

ArchiSpec Summit 2012 March 27, 2012 Brett M. Wilbur CSI, CCS, AIA

Presented by: Brett M. Wilbur CSI, CCS, AIA Page Southerland Page, LLP Houston, Texas

Introduction

Why chess?

Streamlining is like chess, except you dont play against another opponent, you play against time.

Introduction

Streamlining the process: What that means on the macro level. Amidst the tools and gadgets of time management (the micro level), what it really takes is knowing how to think ahead.

Introduction

What does it mean to think ahead?

It means Process Planning, and it means moving the rear to the front.

Introduction

What is Process Planning?

It is the predictable control an individual can exercise over a series of timed events. It is just like chess.

Introduction

What is Process Planning?

It means thinking two (or more) moves ahead, and when your opponent replies with unexpected move, your plan already encompasses and absorbs the attack.

Introduction

Excellence at chess is one mark of a scheming mind. -Sherlock Holmes (by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle)

Decision Making

Every decision is made within a decision environment, which is defined as the collection of information, alternatives, values, risk and preferences available at the time of the decision. An ideal decision environment would include all possible information, all of it accurate, and every possible alternative.

Decision Making

Since decisions must be made within a constrained environment (budget, scope, time), we can say that the major challenge of decision making is uncertainty, and a major goal of decision analysis is to reduce uncertainty. We can almost never have all information needed to make a decision with certainty, so most decisions involve an undeniable amount of risk.

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Decision Making

This process is recursive, and explodes exponentially. This explosion is termed a combinatorial explosion for every decision, there is set of alternatives, and for every alternative there are a growing number of decisions. In computing it is called the branching factor.

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Decision Making

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Decision Making

For example, if the branching factor is 10, then there will be 10 nodes one level down from the current position, 102 (or 100) nodes two levels down, 103 (or 1,000) nodes three levels down, and so on. The higher the branching factor, the faster this "explosion" occurs.

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Decision Making

In chess, it is called the Second Half of the Chessboard.

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Decision Making

The second half of the chessboard is a phrase, coined by Ray Kurzweil, in reference to the point where an exponentially growing factor begins to have a significant economic impact on an organization's overall business strategy. Common mathematics, or a clue to reducing the alternatives?

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Decision Making

In chess, in average there are about 35-38 moves per position. One additional cycle of growth expands each leaf so far accordantly. This is called the average branching factor of the game tree. Common mathematics, or a clue to reducing the alternatives? The branching factor can be cut down by a pruning algorithm. 16

Decision Making

Brute-force searches: consists of systematically enumerating every possible solution of a problem until a solution is found, or all possible solutions have been exhausted. Brute force refers to any method that does not involve a heuristic or rely on any intelligent observation, but tries every possible solution to find the best solution.

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Decision Making

How many decisions in a set of specifications? Example: 70 sections (architecture only) 3 parts per section 6 paragraphs per part

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Decision Making

Linear Search: 70 x 3 x 6 = 1260 However, assumes binary decisions (Y or N). In reality, we can say there are at minimum 4 ways to decide (based on 4 modes of specifying). So total these.

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Decision Making

70 x 4 = 280 3 x 4 = 12 6 x 4 = 24 and multiply 280 x 12 x 24 = 80,640 linear decisions. In branching theory, based on probability, where every decision has a number of alternates, though finite, the total possible decisions would be astronomical.

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Decision Making

This includes, total number of products, total number of options for each product, and total possible performance, testing, administrative and quality control requirements. This does not include all the myriad decisions made by the Architect in producing a set of drawings. How do we do it? Fortunately, this tree has been previously pruned by years of experience, trial and error, and codes, independent testing and reference standards, and standard procedures.

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Decision Making

In addition, for each of these decisions, we must also evaluate other environmental factors, such as climate, longevity, durability, and warranty in terms of the three constraints of time, budget, and scope, and the hidden dimension of quality.

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Decision Making

Fortunately, we only need to pick two. You can have it fast, you can have it cheap, or you can have it good. Identify the weak constraint:
The most flexible constraint; or Least important to achieving your goal.

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Decision Making

How do you define your goal?

Identify the driver: The constraint that is driving the task; If you fail to accomplish the driver, you will fail to deliver your tasks accordingly. Remember, you do not determine the ranking of the constraints. The customer* and the project objectives do.

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Decision Making

Based on identification of driver (Time, Budget or Scope), next, define your goals:
Use sketches and bubble diagrams; or Use mind maps.

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Decision Making

Tasks:
A To Do List.
What you have to get done vs. what you want to get done?

Tasks:
A Not To Do List.
What do you need to stop doing in order to achieve your goals?

Audience Participation Exercise

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Decision Making

So what is the point? As Specifiers and Architects, we are subject to the curse of dimensionality. Some call it brain freeze, or the fear of deciding. How do we make decisions within this environment in order to meet schedules and budgets? How do we streamline the decision making process?

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Prioritizing

When you see a good move, look for a better one.

- Emanuel Lasker (World Chess Champion 1894-1921)

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Prioritizing

Prioritizing:
First: know what is the right thing to do. Then, know when to do it. How do you know what and when?

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Prioritizing

Prioritizing:
Consider Importance and Urgency.

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Prioritizing
High The Importance/Urgency Matrix
High Importance / Low Urgency High Importance / Urgent

Important Tasks

Critical Activities

Importance

Distractions Low Importance / Low Urgency

Interruptions Low Importance / Urgent

High Low Urgency

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Prioritizing

Prioritizing:
Then consider Effort and Impact.

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Prioritizing
High The Action Priority Matrix High Impact / Low Effort Quick Wins Major Tasks High Impact / High Effort

Impact

Fill Ins Low Impact/ Low Effort

Thankless Tasks Low Impact / High Effort High

Low

Effort

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Prioritizing

Consider Lean Production: Identifies 10 rules for adding value to activities:

1. Eliminate waste 2. Minimize inventory 3. Maximize flow 4. Pull Production from customer demand 5. Meet customer requirements 6. Do it right the first time 7. Empower workers 8. Design for rapid changeover 9. Partner with suppliers 10. Create a culture of continuous improvement

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Prioritizing

Lean Production: Identifies 7 different types of waste:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Unnecessary motion Transportation Inventory Overproduction Waiting Processing waste Defects

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Prioritizing

Are you a Procrastinator?

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Prioritizing

Causes of procrastination:
Lack of clear direction. Underestimating the difficulty of the tasks Underestimating the time required to complete the tasks Unclear standards for the task outcomes Feeling like the tasks are imposed on you from outside Disorganization Poor decision making skills Feeling overwhelmed by the task Fear of failure or fear of success Perfectionism

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Prioritizing

Some reasons why time allocation may not equal 100% productivity include:
Unproductive project meetings that are attended but do not help to complete tasks Natural delays such as coffee breaks and lunches Waiting for others to provide necessary inputs Tiredness and hunger Multi-tasking on too many project tasks that delays all of them

And the No. 1 Killer:

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Prioritizing

Interruptions
28% OF EACH DAY Interruptions by things that arent urgent or important, like unnecessary e-mail messages and the time it takes to get back on track.

Lost in Emails, Tech Firms Face Self-Made Beast, The New York Times, June 14, 2008

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Prioritizing

Lost in Emails, Tech Firms Face Self-Made Beast, The New York Times, June 14, 2008

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Monitoring and Evaluating

Monitoring:
Track and monitor tasks as you progress. Continually monitor your performance to determine whether you are on track or need to adjust your schedule. Monitor time and adjust for disruptions. Stay ahead of the task. Indicate where future work is necessary. . Be prepared to get back on track when derailed. Think two (or more) moves ahead!

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Monitoring and Evaluating

Controlling:
Everyone is responsible for their own QA/QC.
What are you doing that is most helpful and brings effective results? Are you meeting your goals and objectives?

Evaluating:
Take a few minutes at the middle of the day and at the conclusion of the day to evaluate your progress and make adjustments as necessary.

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Monitoring and Evaluating

Measuring: Were the goals met?

If not, why?
Was there a problem with your planning?
Was the goal unobtainable? Was the schedule too tight? Did you communicate your expectations sufficiently? Was the team cohesive and efficient? Can you avoid them next time?

Was there a problem with communication?

What were the interruptions?

Where is the weak link? Was good good enough?

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The End

Questions?

THANK YOU

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