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RJC Probability

1

A committee of 10 people is chosen at random from a group consisting of 18 women and 12 men.
The number of women on the committee is denoted by R.
(i) Find the probability that R = 4. [3]


18 17 16 15 12 11 10 9 8 7 10!
P( 4) 0.0941
30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 4!6!
R
| | | |
= = =
| |
\ . \ .



(ii) The most probable number of women on the committee is denoted by r. By using the fact
that P(R = r) > P(R = r + 1), show that r satisfies the inequality

(r + 1)!(17 r)!(9 r)!(r + 3)! > r!(18 r)!(10 r)!(r + 2)!

and use this inequality to find the value of r. [5]


( ) ( ) ( )
18 12 18 12
10 1 9
30 30
10 10
P P P P 10! 10!
P( ) P( 1)
P ! 10 ! P 1 ! 9 !
r r r r
R r R r
r r r r
+

= = = + =
+

( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
18 12 18 12
10 1 9
30 30
10 10
P( ) P( 1)
P P P P 10! 10!
P ! 10 ! P 1 ! 9 !
18! 12! 1 18! 12! 1
18 ! 2 ! ! 10 ! 17 ! 3 ! 1 ! 9 !
1 1 1 1 1 1
18 ! 2 ! ! 10 ! 17 ! 3 ! 1 ! 9 !
1 ! 17 ! 9 ! 3 ! ! 18 ! 10 !
r r r r
R r R r
r r r r
r r r r r r r r
r r r r r r r r
r r r r r r r
+
= > = +

>
+
>
+ + +
>
+ + +
+ + > ( ) 2 ! (shown) r +


( ) ( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( )( ) ( )( ) ( )
( )( ) ( )( )
2 2
1 ! 17 ! 9 ! 3 2 ! ! 18 17 ! 10 9 ! 2 !
1 3 18 10
4 3 180 28
32 177
177
5.53125, i.e. 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
32
r r r r r r r r r r r r
r r r r
r r r r
r
r r
+ + + > +
+ + >
+ + > +
>
> = =

Since P(R = r) > P(R = r + 1) (based on the question),
for r = 6, P(R = 6) > P(R = 7) > P(R = 8) > P(R = 9) > P(R = 10)
6 r =
RJC Probability
2

An urn contains m white balls and n black balls.
(a) If a random sample of size r is chosen, what is the probability that it contains exactly k
white balls, if balls are selected (i) with replacement, (ii) without replacement.

(i) If balls are selected with replacement,


( )
!
P(exactly white balls)
! !
k r k
k r k
m n r
k
m n m n k r k
r
m n
k m n m n

| | | |
=
| |
+ +
\ . \ .
| |
| | | |
=
| | |
+ +
\ . \ .
\ .



(ii) If balls are selected without replacement,


( )( ) ( ) ( ) ( )( ) ( ) ( )
( )( )( ) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
P(exactly white balls)
1 2 ... 1 1 2 ... 1
1 2 ... 1
P P
P
P P !
! ! P
P P
! !
Recall that ! P ,
P
!
m n
k r k
m n
r
m n
k r k
m n
r
m n
k r k
n
r m n
r
k
m m m m k n n n n r k r
k m n m n m n m n r
r
k
r
k r k
n k r k
r
r
r

+

| |
=
|
+ + + +
\ .
| |
=
|
\ .

| |
= =
|
\ .
P
hence
!
n
r
n
r r
m n
k r k
m n
r
| |
=
|
\ .
| || |
| |

\ .\ .
=
+ | |
|
\ .





k times (r k) times
r times
RJC Probability
3

(b) Balls are randomly selected one at a time until a white one is obtained, each ball being
replaced before the next one is selected. Find the probability that
(i) it will take exactly k draws, (ii) at least k draws are needed.

(i) The probability that it will take exactly k draws,
1
P(it will take exactly draws)
k
n m
k
m n m n

| | | |
=
| |
+ +
\ . \ .




(ii) The probability that at least k draws are needed,
1 1
1 1
1
P(at least draws needed)
...
...
1
k k k
k k k
k
k
n m n m n m
m n m n m n m n m n m n
m n n n
m n m n m n m n
n
m m n
n m n
m n
m
+
+

| | | | | | | | | | | |
= + + +
| | | | | |
+ + + + + +
\ . \ . \ . \ . \ . \ .
(
| | | | | | | |
= + + +
(
| | | |
+ + + +
\ . \ . \ . \ .
(

| |
|
+ | |
\ .
=
|
+ | |
\ .

|
+
\ .
=
1
1
k
k
n
m n
m
m n
m n
n
m n

| |
|
+ | |
\ .
|
+
\ .
+
| |
=
|
+
\ .



draw black balls for the first (k 1) times
k draws (k + 1) draws (k + 2) draws
sum to infinity of a GP
RJC Probability
4

An engineering system with n components is said to be a k out of n system if and only if at least
k of the components function. Suppose that all the components function independently of each
other. Given that the probability that each component functions is p, compute the probability that
the system is a k out of n system.

Similar to the previous urn question, part (b),
( )
( )
( )
!
P(exactly components function) 1
! !
1
n k
k
n k
k
n
k p p
k n k
n
p p
k

| |
=
|
\ .

( ) ( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
1 2
1 2
P(at least components function)
1 1 1 ... 1
1 2
1
n k n k n k n n
k k k n
n
n r
r
r k
k
n n n n
p p p p p p p p
k k k n
n
p p
r
+ +
+ +

=
| | | | | | | |
= + + + +
| | | |
+ +
\ . \ . \ . \ .
| |
=
|
\ .





A forest contains 20 deer, of which 5 are captured, tagged, and then released. A certain time later,
4 of the 20 deer are captured. What is the probability that 2 of these 4 have been tagged?

5 4 15 14 4! 70
P(capturing 2 tagged deer out of 4)
20 19 18 17 2!2! 323
= =



k components (k + 1) components (k + 2) components n components