Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
October 2011
Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. RMB becoming a global currency Why adopt the RMB? Debt capital markets Foreign exchange and rates Cross-border trade RMB road map Keeping informed Deutsche Bank in China Contacts 4 7 8 13 16 19 21 22 23
Chinas global economic relevance contrasts starkly with the underrepresentation of its currency in international trade. The worlds second largest economy and its largest exporter, China represents a significant share of global foreign direct investment. Yet its currency comprises a mere 0.3% of all global FX turnover (BIS). Chinas policy makers have made it clear they want this to change. Already, a number of measures to promote the use of RMB in cross-border trade, financing and foreign direct investment (FDI) have created a fully-functioning offshore RMB market in Hong Kong (CNH). For corporations, investors and financial institutions the opportunities are considerable. Currency risk can be neutralised by raising capital in the offshore RMB bond market to fund onshore subsidiaries. CNH bonds also offer a relatively competitive source of financing and the potential to tap a new investor base. Invoicing goods in RMB for Chinese buyers may provide competitive advantages and the potential for significant cost savings. Investors meanwhile gain unrestricted access to RMB assets through Hong Kongs CNH FX, debt and equity markets.
Dec 08
Jun 09
July 09
Jun 10
Dec 10
Aug 11
2008
Jul 09
PBoC and other ve authorities issued administrative rules for RMB settlement pilot scheme with HK, Macau and ASEAN countries
2009
Jul 09
PBoC issued regulation for implementing the administrative rules for RMB settlement scheme
2010
Jul 09
SAFE issued BOP reporting notices for RMB trade settlement
2011
Aug 10
DB China acquired the quali cations to act as both domestic settlement bank and domestic agent bank
Jul 10
PBoC and HKMA signed a supplementary memorandum of cooperation of RMB cross-border trade settlement pilot scheme
Jan 11
PBoC announced the pilot scheme for Outwardbound Direct Investment (ODI) in RMB
Oct 11
MOFCOM and PBOC issue new circulars on RMB FDI
Three FX markets now exist for RMB Onshore CNY, which remains restricted for foreigners; offshore CNH, which is fully deliverable; and the USDdenominated non-deliverable forward market. Daily trading volumes in USDCNH now exceed USD2bn equivalent.
Forward outrights (mid-rates)
6.50
200
150
100
50 100 0
Ju l Au -09 g Se -09 pOc 09 t No -09 v De -09 cJa 09 n Fe -10 bM 10 ar Ap 10 r M -10 ay Ju 10 nJu 10 l Au -10 g Se -10 pOc 10 t No -10 v De -10 cJa 10 n Fe -11 bM 11 ar Ap 11 r M -11 ay Ju 11 n1 Ju 1 l-1 Au 1 g11
USD/CNY
6.45
USD/CNH
NDF
6.40
Source: HKMA
Hong Kongs CNH deposit base reached a staggering 622bn as of September 2011 (HKMA). Growth was initially driven by retail deposits on the expectation of RMB appreciation, however corporations, investors and banks continue to increase their share of total deposits. RMB cross-border trade spikes in 2011 RMB cross-border trade between Hong Kong and China spiked in the 12 months to August 2011, from RMB38.5bn to RMB185.8bn (HKMA), or nearly 10% of total trade. This has been largely driven by the expansion of a trade settlement pilot programme that now allows companies from all Chinese provinces and municipalities to settle trade outside of China in RMB.
China cross-border trade settlement volume (RMB bn)
800
6.35
6.30
CNH capital markets kick into gear Corporations can freely raise RMB funds via Hong Kongs CNH bond and equity markets with an established approval process for remitting proceeds onshore. The bond market has seen spectacular growth in 2011, with a broad range of issuers participating, including foreign multinational corporations. The first CNH IPO has also been successfully listed.
CNH bonds by issuer
100 90 80 70 60
600
50 40
Sovereign Policy Banks Commercial Banks HK Banks Foreign Banks Supranational Corporation Foreign Group
400
30 20
200
31 -J an -1 0 28 -F eb -1 0 31 -M ar -1 0 30 -A pr -1 0 31 -M ay -1 0 30 -J un -1 0 31 -J ul -1 0 31 -A ug -1 0 30 -S ep -1 0 31 -O ct -1 0 30 -N ov -1 0 31 -D ec -1 0 Q1 20 11 Q2 20 11
Whats next?
CNH assets to grow ten-fold by 2012 Deutsche Bank expects increased demand for RMB financing will see the amount of outstanding offshore RMB loans and bonds grow ten-fold to RMB700bn by the end of 2012. Going forward, the recent approval for foreign companies to remit CNH for investment onshore, rising RMB cross border trade, the competitive borrowing costs offered by CNH bonds, and a proposed scheme for foreigners to buy securities with RMB obtained offshore will be the key factors underpinning asset growth.
CNH asset growth (CNHbn)
1000
Deposits to reach CNH2 trillion by 2012 Deutsche Bank believes growing volumes of RMB cross-border trade and the increased use of bank deposits for RMB lending and bond purchases (known as the multiplier effect) will see deposits reach CNH2 trillion by 2012.
RMB deposits in Hong Kong
2500
2000
1500
1000
Mar 11
End-2012
End-2015
500
800
-1 3
-1 4
-1
-1
-1
ug
ar
ay
ec
ct
1-
1-
1-
1-
600
200
The CNH bond market is becoming more global, with corporations and financial institutions from 14 countries (outside of China) now issuing CNH bonds. Deutsche Bank expects CNH190bn of gross bond supply in 2011, with CNH bond market capitalization to grow to 50% of the Hong Kong debt market by 2015. As the CNH FX swap market becomes more liquid, the bond market has the potential to become a competitive source of financing for global bond issuers.
CNH bonds / HK debt
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
Increased RMB cross border trade RMB cross border trade between China and Hong Kong is on the rise. Deutsche Bank expects monthly volumes to reach RMB250bn by October 2011, with 30% of Chinas total trade to be transacted in RMB by 2015. The expansion of the RMB trade settlement programme in August 2011 to include all Chinese companies, adoption of the RMB by foreign corporations, growth in Chinas nominal trade volumes and an increase in Chinese outward direct investment are expected to be the key drivers of future growth.
RMB trade settlement volumes (forecast)
10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0.05 0 0.15 0.1 0.35
CNH bonds/HK debt other than EFN&Ef bills CNH bonds/HK debt
0.1 0 1-Dec-13 1-Mar-08 1-Mar-09 1-Mar-10 1-Mar-11 1-Dec-14 1-Jun-07 1-Jun-08 1-Jun-09 1-Jun-10 1-Sep-07 1-Sep-08 1-Sep-09 1-Sep-10 1-Jun-11 1-Sep-11 1-Dec-07 1-Dec-08 1-Dec-09 1-Dec-10 1-Dec-11 1-Dec-12 1-Dec-15
1-
1-
Ju
l-1
The CNH bond market grew considerably in 2011. Foreign issuers became more active, deal sizes and tenors grew, investors became more discerning, while the growing universe of outstanding bonds has made price discovery easier. In October 2011, approval was given for selected domestic Chinese companies to access the market. Importantly, new rules governing RMB foreign direct investment (FDI) provide improved clarity over the remittance process. Deutsche Bank expects FDI to ultimately contribute RMB150200bn of new bond supply each year. While many aspects of the CNH bond market mirror that of Asias offshore G3 bond market, there are important differences new issuers should consider. These primarily relate to the remittance of CNH proceeds onshore and the comparative cost of funds compared to onshore bank loans.
CNH bond issuance on the rise (RMBbn)
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 to OCT
is dependent on the size of the foreign entitys allowable debt quota (up to 6x registered capital for local holding companies). Loans can be a simpler alternative, provided there is sufficient capacity under your approved debt quota, as they can be serviced without regulatory approval after registration with SAFE. Repatriating dividends offshore to service an injection of equity capital however typically requires strict local regulatory conditions to be met. Preference will be given to entities that already trade in RMB and therefore contribute to the cross-border trade settlement scheme. Remittance for trade purposes does not require regulatory approval.
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
% 20
43
38 Financial Corporate
AA 1% AAA 1% BB 3% BBB 2%
84
NR
41 3yr 2yr
17-Oct-11
27-Oct-11
0
7-Jan-11
18-Jul-11
28-Jul-11
9-Aug-11
8-Nov-11
4-Mar-11
2-Jun-11
7-Apr-11
5-Oct-11
6-Jul-11
SAFE PBOC (local / provincial and head oce levels ) Generally, there is a preference that funds which are transferred into the PRC are deployed as new capital rather than for re nancing. Funding the domestic cash pool will generally be not considered a re nancing Funds need to be invested in an industry encouraged by the government and may not be invested in real estate /stock market Issuer will not rely on dividends for debt servicing Once the shareholder loan is registered with SAFE, any debt servicing will be allowed automatically
Repayment options
Transferring money out of the PRC usually requires local regulatory approval Under CNY Pilot Scheme, entities based in 20 key designated cities can remit dividend out of China without separate approvals Withholding tax on dividend repatriation : up to 10% (ultimate tax rate depends on nationality) Withholding tax on dividend remittance to HK entity is 5%, but the Hong Kong entity has to have real business operations
Tax
Key bene ts
Quota for FIEs to raise oshore debt (Foreign Debt Quota or Borrowing Gap) is limited; capital injection provides additional Borrowing Gap
Issuers will not rely on dividends for debt servicing Once the intercompany loan is registered with SAFE, any debt servicing will be allowed automatically
10 Action Steps to offshore RMB Deutsche Bank 2 A brief guide Week 1 Week
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 1 Action Steps Appoint professional parties Regulatory approval process Due diligence & documentation Preparation of marketing materials Issue rating process Completion of documentations Roadshow Launch & pricing
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Appoint Lead Manager and other professional parties Kick-o remittance process liaise with MOFCOM, PBOC and SAFE Commence due diligence session Preparation of supplemental oering circular (SOC), principal documents (PD subscription agreement, pricing supplement, trust deed, dealer agreement), legal opinions and comfort letters Commence issue rating process and obtain issue rating Finalize all documentation Prepare roadshow presentation Obtain Chinese regulatory approval-in-principle Roadshow commences, release of pricing guidance Announcement of transaction (subject to market conditions) Pricing of transaction Closing and settlement (T+5 business days, i.e. in week 9)
IS IS, LM All IFC IS, LM, RA IS, LM, IFC, UFC, LC, A IS, LM IS IS, LM IS, LM IS, LM IS, LM
Week 7
Week 8
Issuer Lead Manager Issuers Foreign Counsel Underwriters Foreign Counsel Local Counsels Auditors Rating Agency
11
Why choose Deutsche Bank for your inaugural CNH bond deal?
*IFR Asia Bond House of the Year 2006, 2009 & 2010 **Top-3 arranger of CNH bonds with 9% market share (Bloomberg, October 2011) Leading market maker in CNH bonds (broker estimates) Arranger of largest-ever CNH corporate bond deal (CNH3.5 bln Sinochem Jan 2014s) Arranger of first European MNC CNH deal (CNH300m Unilever Mar 2014s) Arranger of the first three-tranche corporate CNH deal (CNH2bn Bosch und Siemens deal) #1 arranger of synthetic RMB bonds with 30% market share in 2011 (Dealogic) Launched the first investable benchmark CNH bond index (DB ORBIT)
Liquidity in the CNH FX market continues to build thanks to growing levels of RMB crossborder trade and a burgeoning CNH bond market. Currency exposures can be managed via CNH FX forwards, while growing FX options and cross-currency swap markets are set to broaden the range of risk management tools available to corporations and investors. Daily spot trading volumes in USDCNH now stand at USD2 billion, up from zero in July 2010, and are expected to exceed those of the nondeliverable forward market by mid-2012. Daily spot fixing in USDCNH is provided by Hong Kongs Treasury Market Association.
CNH and CNY spot converging
spread (RHS)
6.80 6.70 6.60 6.50 6.40 6.30 6.20 6.10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 pips (,000) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2
Ultimately, the onshore CNY rate serves as a soft anchor point for USDCNH. While there are deviations from CNY, levels usually find their way back to an equilibrium as market participants move between the curve with the most favourable rates. Over the longer term, demand for CNH will be primarily supported by rising levels of RMB trade and CNH asset creation, both of which have a clear growth trajectory.
Implied appreciation NDF vs. CNH market*
1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 1Y
What influences USDCNH and why does it diverge with the onshore rate?
As a fully deliverable FX market, CNH is exposed to supply and demand dynamics. For most of 2011 strong demand for RMB exposure, driven by investor expectations for the currencys appreciation, saw USDCNH trade at a premium to the onshore CNY spot rate. As global investor risk aversion took hold in the summer however, CNH began to trade at a slight discount to CNY, following a broader sell-off in Asian currencies. This was further exacerbated by Hong Kongs clearing bank exceeding its quota for offshore CNY trades. However, the citys considerable CNH deposit base and the large cash cushion held by CNH investors have provided technical support to the market, signifying its growing maturity.
New quotas for Hong Kongs clearing bank are also expected to reduce volatility between the onshore and offshore CNY spot rates.
13
Onshore investment quota for foreigners and FDI to support demand for CNH assets
A RMB20bn quota allowing foreign investors to use RMB obtained offshore for investment onshore in Chinas securities markets was introduced in October 2011, opening another important channel of demand for CNH. The quota coincides with new rules that allow foreign corporations to use RMB obtained offshore for foreign direct investment, improving transparency around the remittance process considerably a key issue for many aspiring issuers of CNH bonds. This clarity is expected to provide an important level of support for volumes in the CNH bond market and, in turn, demand for CNH. Indeed, of all Asias currencies, foreign investors are already most heavily positioned in RMB, reflecting an expectation for continued appreciation as well as growing demand for RMB assets.
Offshore FX positioning largest in RMB
DBSPI (% of AUM)
7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% IDR THB PHP INR MYR SGD TWD KRW CNY
6.70 6.60 6.50 6.40 6.30 6.20 6.10 6.00 Sep-10 Dec-10
2 2 1 1 0
By comparison, the USDCNY NDF market currently has USD2.5-3bn of daily volumes, although Deutsche Bank expects the CNH forward market will exceed this level by mid2012. Over time, the NDF market will likely cease to exist as market participants move to where liquidity is best. Daily volumes in the FX options market more than trebled from USD30m to USD100mn in 2011 with liquidity available in tenors from 3 months to 1 year. Growth in USDCNH options has led to the emergence of a structured FX forward market, where corporations and investors can create tailored products that best suit their individual risk management needs. An interest rate swap market has also emerged, with fixing to the 3-month Shanghai Interbank Offering Rate (SHIBOR). However, greater liquidity is currently found in the cross-currency swap (CCS) market, with tenors from 3 months out to 5 years. Liquidity in this market is expected to improve as more longdated CNH bonds are issued.
15
Cross-border trade
Efforts to internationalise the RMB are founded in Chinas desire to increase global trade in its own currency.
Encouraging widespread use of the RMB in global trade settlement will ultimately determine the success of Chinas push to internationalise its currency. Signs so far are encouraging. RMB cross-border trade between Hong Kong and China has exploded in the 12 months to August 2011, from RMB38.5bn to RMB185.8bn (HKMA). Global trade in RMB is also on the rise as growing numbers of corporations open RMB accounts in order to buy and sell goods in China. With no restrictions on transferring RMB between offshore accounts, converting offshore RMB to another currency, remittance onshore for trade settlement purposes or FDI, it has never been easier for foreign corporations with links to China to adopt the RMB.
China cross-border trade settlement (RMBbn)
800
China is a significant market for this region, in terms of resource exports as well as components that are used in Chinese export manufacturing. Broadening their potential client base by offering goods in RMB is one key motivator for Asian exporters to China adopting the RMB.
Chinas global trade volumes (in USD)
Europe $0.57t
NA $0.42t
ME&A $0.3t
Africa $0.17t
China $2.9t
KR $0.2t
LA $0.18t
HK $0.23t
Asia $1.5t
ASEAN $0.29t
600
400
200
31 -J an -1 0 28 -F eb -1 0 31 -M ar -1 0 30 -A pr -1 0 31 -M ay -1 0 30 -J un -1 0 31 -J ul -1 0 31 -A ug -1 0 30 -S ep -1 0 31 -O ct -1 0 30 -N ov -1 0 31 -D ec -1 0 Q1 20 11 Q2 20 11
Deutsche Bank ultimately expects 40% of Chinese trade to be priced in RMB, in-line with the volume of Japans exports denominated in Yen.
% of export invoiced in exporter home currency
100 90
Principal among this has been the growth of RMB letters of credit, which have surged by USD12bn since July 2010 in contrast to stagnant HKD trade credit growth.
Trade credit issued by HK banks VS. value of direct RMB trade settlement
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
USD bn Foreign Ccy Trade Credit HKD Trade Credit RMB trade settlement in HK
Along with import and export letters of credit, other familiar products are available for cash management and trade purposes. These include RMB nostro accounts to overseas Deutsche Bank branches, term deposits, real time gross settlement and a range of Deutsche Banks electronic FX trading and risk management products.
17
RMB roadmap
What do you need to consider before adopting the RMB?
Consideration Short-term
Pricing differential between onshore and offshore CNY curves Increase liquidity through RMB letters of credit
Action
Open a CNH account to take advantage of favourable hedging and conversion rates and to set-up the new currency code in your treasury system Letters of credit discounting Evaluate financial benefits of using RMB with buyers/ suppliers as your trading currency in China Draw up a small list of payments and clients/suppliers to test RMB trade-related transactions Evaluate tools for hedging FX and interest rate risk with CNH
Medium-term
Assess longer-term benefits of CNH How do I best create a pilot process to test the benefits of using the RMB? What hedging opportunities are available to me?
Long-term
Full integration of CNH into the Use CNH for netting RMB cash management process payments and for cash management systems Financing Evaluate CNH bond, loan and equity markets for best source of financing
19
Keeping informed
Deutsche Bank is committed to keeping its clients informed on the latest developments in RMB internationalisation.
Deutsche Banks fixed income and foreign exchange strategy teams produce a fortnightly report, The CNH Market Monitor, which provides corporations and investors with insight and perspective on the latest regulatory reforms, market developments, financing conditions and other key factors influencing Hong Kongs CNH market. To receive the report and keep informed, please contact our research team or speak with your Deutsche Bank representative: Linan Liu, Greater China Interest Rate Strategist linan.liu@db.com +852 2203 8709 Dennis Tan, Asia FX Strategist dennis.tan@db.com +65 6423 5347 Sameer Goel, Head of Asia Rates & FX Research sameer.goel@db.com +65 6423 6973
21
Key contacts
Debt capital markets Patrick Tsang, Head of Fixed Income Capital Markets, Asia +852 2203 8331 patrick.tsang@db.com CNH remittance Daisy Cao, Senior Relationship Manager, China +86 21 3896 2686 daisy.cao@db.com Foreign Exchange Jens Scharff-Hansen, Co-Head of FX Trading, Asia +852 2203 8533 jens.scharff-hansen@db.com Reid Hamilton, Head of Cross-Border Client Coverage and Risk Advisory, Asia +852 2203 8506 reid.hamilton@db.com Rates Xiang Hong, Deputy Head of Global Rates Greater China +852 2203 6452 xiang.hong@db.com Transaction Banking Eric Koo, Head of Global Transaction Banking, Hong Kong and Head of Trade Finance, Greater China +852 2203 8588 eric.koo@db.com
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In the US this document is approved and or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a member of the NYSE, FINRA, NFA and SIPC. You should note that the Renminbi is not a freely convertible currency. All payments in respect of Renminbi will be made solely by transfer to a Renminbi bank account maintained in Hong Kong in accordance with prevailing rules and regulations. DB cannot be required to make a payment by any other means (including in currency or by transfer to a bank account in the Peoples Republic of China). In addition, there can be no assurance that access to Renminbi funds for the purposes of making payments in respect of this transaction or generally may not remain or become restricted.
23
October 2011
Deutsche Bank continues to play a key role in the development of Hong Kongs offshore Renminbi market. Across debt capital markets, credit trading, foreign exchange and transaction banking, we have the market presence and insight you need.
Debt capital markets and credit trading
Top-3 arranger of CNH bonds with 9.1% market share (year to Oct 2011, Bloomberg) First-ever investable benchmark CNH bond index (DB ORBIT) Leading market maker in CNH bonds (broker estimates) Arranger of largest-ever CNH corporate bond deal (CNH3.5 bln Sinochem Jan 2014s) Arranger of first European MNC CNH deal (CNH300m Unilever Mar 2014s) #1 arranger of synthetic RMB bonds with 30% market share in 2011 (Dealogic)
Foreign exchange
Transacted first CNH cross-currency swap, FX swap and FX forward Leading market maker (broker estimates) First bank to launch electronic trading of CNH (via Autobahn FX) Leading provider of structured CNH FX products Asias dominant FX house with over 20% market share (Euromoney)
Transaction banking
Full suite of cash management and trade finance products Comprehensive cross-border products and services Leading trust and custody services for CNH assets Full corporate treasury support across financing and risk management
Contacts
CMTS: CNH remittance: Credit trading: FX: GTB: Patrick Tsang Di Mu Vishal Goenka Jens Scharff-Hansen Eric Koo +852 2203 8331 +86 21 3896 4889 +65 6883 0666 +852 2203 8533 +852 2203 8588 patrick.tsang@db.com di.mu@db.com vishal.goenka@db.com jens.scharff-hansen@db.com eric.koo@db.com