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January 27, 2012

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Interested Parties Ben Tulchin and Corey ONeil, Tulchin Research Newly Drawn 39TH Congressional District in California Provides Opening for Democrat Jay Chen

With the advent of Californias new re-districting format and the political shuffling that has occurred as a result of new district lines, Tulchin Research was asked to conduct a survey in the states new 39th Congressional District to better understand the dynamics of the district. The newly redrawn district has merged portions of the old 40th and 42nd Congressional Districts together, including the home of Ed Royce, who currently represents the 40th Congressional District. The new 39th Congressional District contains only about a third of Royces old 40th Congressional District. Furthermore, the demographics of this new district reflect the reality of present-day California as the district now contains large Latino and Asian populations. With Royce being drawn into the district with large ethnic communities, there is a unique and realistic opportunity for a qualified Asian-American Democrat such as Jay Chen to make his case to voters and win them over next November. Here are the numerous factors as to why Jay Chen can make this a very competitive race and ultimately win this seat. Polling shows Chen starts off within striking distance of the Republican Congressman and moves into a statistical tie with Royce with just a little bit of information about the candidates provided. o Fully 29 percent of the district is Asian and 33 percent is Latino. Even more importantly, the survey shows both groups strongly support Chen, especially once they hear more about the candidates. After hearing basic positive information about both candidates, Chen outperforms Royce by 30 points among Asian and Latino voters.

Republican incumbent Congressmen Ed Royce has been drawn into the district and will be compelled to spend money introducing himself to many voters in the newly drawn district. o Large portions of voters in the new 39th district dont know who Royce is which will weaken any incumbent advantage he might have had as a sitting Congressman.

Anti-incumbency sentiments among voters and their displeasure with their representatives in Washington provide an opening for an accomplished candidate like Chen who has an impressive profile and is not a career politician from Washington. Furthermore, Chens name recognition in the district is surprisingly high at 25 percent, which can be attributed to his work on the school board as well as national exposure he has received in the media including The Daily Show, the BBC and the Los Angeles Times. The ethnic diversity of the new district serves as an advantage for Chen, the son of Chinese immigrants who is fluent in both Chinese and Spanish.

182 Second Street, Suite 400 San Francisco, CA 94105 (415) 874-7441

Tulchin Research Poll Results in CA CD-39

Given the context of the newly drawn district and the new top 2 primary system in California, the poll reinforces the view that this can be a winnable race for Chen. Chen can likely avoid primary competition for the nomination as he has already won the recommendation of the Democratic Party for full endorsement at the California Democratic Convention. We provide an analysis of our key findings below. Key Findings Voters Dislike Congress and Republicans in Congress: Voters in this district show strong displeasure with both the U.S. Congress in general and Republicans in Congress in particular. Over a majority of voters (52 percent) hold unfavorable opinions of our lawmakers in Washington while just 18 percent hold favorable opinions of them. Republicans in Congress are viewed nearly as poorly, as a plurality of voters in the district (43 percent) give them a negative rating, while just under a third (31 percent) view Republicans in Congress positively. Favorability Ratings
Now, I am going to read you a list of public figures and organizations. For each, I would like you to tell me if you have a generally favorable, neutral, or generally unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of that person or group, please say so.

Total Favorable U.S. Congress Republicans in Congress 18% 31%

Total Unfavorable 52% 43%

Fav - Unfav -34 -12

Job Approval Ratings for Royce A Big Question Mark for Voters: As an incumbent member of Congress, Ed Royce suffers from the dual problems of being part of an unpopular institution (Congress) and from redistricting which has now made him unfamiliar to half of voters in the new district, thereby taking away much of the advantage of incumbency. Specifically, Royce draws an approval rating of 41 percent and disapproval rating of 14 percent, with nearly a majority of voters (45 percent) not knowing enough about him to assess his performance in Congress. These results show that he does not have strong attachments with voters in the new district, which gives a candidate like Chen an opportunity to defeat the Republican Congressman. Job Performance Ratings
Now, I am going to read you some names. For each one, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of how they are handling their job.

Total Approve Ed Royce as Congressman 41%

Total Disapprove 14%

Dont Know 45%

Chen Is Competitive in a Head-to-Head Match-Up with Royce: Looking at the general election horserace match-up between the two candidates, Chen starts off within striking distance despite lower name recognition and moves into a statistical dead-heat after some basic positive information about both candidates. In a race against Royce, a third of voters (33 percent) start off supporting Jay Chen while half of the electorate (50 percent) support Royce, with 17 percent of voters undecided. After positive information about both candidates is presented to voters, however, Chens support grows significantly while Royces drops. He pulls nearly even with the long-time

Tulchin Research Poll Results in CA CD-39

incumbent, 45 percent to 47 percent, well within the surveys margin of error, while the remaining eight percent are undecided. As the table illustrates below, Chen can make this a highly competitive race with little effort due to the weak position of the incumbent and the strength of Chens profile. Head-to-Head Vote
If the November 2012 election for Congress were held today and the candidates were (ROTATE) School Board Member Jay Chen, the Democrat, and Congressman Ed Royce, the Republican for whom would you vote?

Initial Vote Jay Chen Ed Royce Undecided Chen - Royce 33% 50% 17% -17

Re-Vote (After Positive Information) 45% 47% 8% -2

Net Vote Shift +12 -3 -9 +16

There are various demographic groups that help to boost Chens support from the initial vote to the re-vote after positive messaging. Notably, Chen increases his support significantly with Asian Americans, Latinos, decline-to-state voters (DTS), and Caucasian Democrats. All of these groups are critical for a Democrat to win decisively in order to be competitive in this Republican-leaning district, and the fact that Chen starts off in a decent position and then moves ahead decisively with each of these key targeted groups is further evidence that Chen can make this a very competitive race and ultimately defeat the Republican incumbent. The results from this survey are very encouraging for Jay Chen as a candidate for Congress in Californias 39th district. Given the demographic make-up of the new district, voters dislike of Congress, voters relatively low awareness of Royce as an incumbent, and the strength of Chens profile as a candidate, Jay Chen has an extraordinarily unique opportunity in 2012 to pick up what would in normal circumstances be a Republican-leaning seat.

Survey Methodology: From December 11-15, 2011, Tulchin Research conducted a telephone survey among 400 likely voters in Californias 39th Congressional District using live, professional interviewers. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.9 percentage points. The survey included an oversample of 150 Asian American voters in the district, with interviews conducted in Mandarin, Cantonese and Korean.