WiMax Technology

Course Description: Section: Professor Name: Student Name:

Date:

E-Commerce and High Technology Market U Detlev Zwick Lei Li Carlos Saito Masashi Shinkawa Ying Zhang November 23rd, 2005

CONTENTS
1. WiMax Technology..................................................................................4
1.1 What is WiMax?..........................................................................................................4 1.2 Who are current users of WiMax?..............................................................................4 1.3 What is the future of WiMax?.....................................................................................5

2. Analysis ...................................................................................................6
2.1 PEST Analysis ...........................................................................................................6
2.1.1 Politics .........................................................................................................................................6 2.1.2 Economic.....................................................................................................................................6 2.1.3 Social............................................................................................................................................7 2.1.4 Technology...................................................................................................................................8

2.2 SWOT Analysis .......................................................................................................10

2.2.1 Strength .....................................................................................................................................10 2.2.2 Weakness...................................................................................................................................11 2. 2.3 Opportunity...............................................................................................................................12 2.2.4 Threat.........................................................................................................................................12

3. Recommendation and Implementation...................................................14

3.1 Targeting....................................................................................................................14 3.2 Positioning.................................................................................................................17 3.3 Implementing.............................................................................................................18

Appendix 1: Communication Speed and Area Coverage ..........................19 Appendix 2: Forecast demand for notebook computers.............................20 Appendix 3: WiMax in the technological lifecycle....................................21 Appendix 4: Relation with other wireless technologies.............................22 Appendix 5: Mid-time WiMax Vision.......................................................23 Appendix 6: Penetration Rate vs. GDP per Capite.....................................24 Appendix 7: Target Area (Urban or Rural)................................................25 Appendix 8: Value of Technology.............................................................26 Appendix 9: Risk of Devaluation...............................................................27 Appendix 10: WiMax Service Provider - NextWeb...................................28

1. WiMax Technology
1.1 What is WiMax?
WiMax or the 802.16 standard is the acronym for the World Interoperability for Microwave Access, and is considered the evolution of the wireless broadband, the product is similar to Wi-Fi but with the capability to sending and receiving large amount of packed data through the use of base stations, similar to those used in the cellular networks. WiMax provides data-communications up to 50km (31 miles) at a speed of 70Mbit/s, enough bandwidth to simultaneously support more than 60 businesses with T1-type1 bandwidth and well over a 1000 homes at 1Mbit/s or DSL-level connectivity. Generally speaking, communication speed is inversely proportional to the area coverage. It is shown as Appendix 1, UWB technology can provide very fast access speed from 100Mbps to 1Gbps, but its coverage distance is limited only from 1m to 10m. 3G technology supports wide area coverage and mobile usage, however the access speed is relatively slow compared to other technologies. WiMax is a technology between UWB and 3G. WiMax can support wider area coverage than UWB and the higher speed access than 3G. WiMax has nature technological advantage than others in the market usage of 5Mbps to 100Mbps accessing speed and 100m-30km coverage distance. Therefore, WiMax is an efficient and economical technology to achieve broadband Internet access.

1.2 Who are current users of WiMax?

The main use of the WiMax technology is to offer an inexpensive broadband wireless access to all the masses from entire sections of metropolitan areas, to remote locales across the world, especially in places where people cannot afford to get a broadband. The installation cost of WiMax is by far less expensive than todays wire solution. As an example
1

British Telecom is testing WiMax in Ireland and Scotland for use in parsley populated areas where wire networks are difficult to install; another example, Millicom Argentina is also testing WiMax with the help of Alvarion and Intel for suburban and rural areas. The company has over 60 base stations throughout Argentina; the first phase will be tested in two base stations, if the test succeeds, the company will install and replace more than 100 WiMax base stations to deploy the technology in rural and highly populated areas.

1.3 What is the future of WiMax?

WiMax is a new technology that has just been introduced in 2005. WiMax was born to resolve the weaknesses of Wi-Fi network such as low range, inadequate bandwidth and encryption. Although this technology is still young, it is expected that the subscribers will grow from 80,000 by the end of 2005 to 3.8 million by the end of 2009. According to a recent report by In-Strat by 2009, South Korea, due to its sophisticated application industry, will contribute to the world WiMax market by 40% followed by China with 34% and Japan by 17%. The report predicts that the total WiMax market in Asia will reach US$1,988.2 millions in 20092. WiMax technology has brought many leading equipment manufacturers and component suppliers into this market. For instance, Alcatel and Intel have implemented a dedicated WiMax program, Nokia is looking to the technology as a complement of its third generation (3G) handsets, Mobile carriers see a opportunity in WiMax to overcome their 3G saturation network and facilitate the transition to the 4G system and telecom companies are analysing the possibility to deploy WiMax to suburban areas that lack of DSL.

2. Analysis
2.1 PEST Analysis
2.1.1 Politics The WiMax Forum, a non-profit organization that promotes and certifies the compatibility and interpretability of broadband access, was established in 2001. By 2005 the WiMax Forum has had more than 300 members, including leading equipment manufacturers, service providers and systems integrators3. The WiMax Forum will conduct testing and label compliant products with the WiMax Forum Certified. This will guarantee that the

products have been independently verified to conform to the standard and be interoperable with other vendors equipment, expecting to promote the WiMax technology in wireless market. 2.1.2 Economic Growth Potential of Big Markets (India, China and Russia) In India, there are 1.08 billion people4, which is the world largest democracy, of which 200 million people belongs to the middle class, which is the potential market for high technology products such as mobile PC and mobile phone. The Indian Government has put the broadband and Internet growth as a priority and set a goal of computer access for 75 million people and the Internet access for 45 million people by 2010. Currently only 15 million people have access to a computer5. China has the world largest landline and mobile telecom networks: As of June 2005, 363 million mobile phone subscribers, 337 million fixed-line telephone subscribers (28% of population), and 31.7 million broadband subscribers (2.6% of population)6. Russias telecom industry will invest US $ 33 billion in the next ten
3 4 5 6

years. Mobile penetration is almost twice than that of fixed-line telephony, and growing at 104% annually7. Stagnation of 3G Market Worldwide Mid 2002, it was clear that the transition to 3G networks was going to be even more complex and risky than originally anticipated. The initial optimism over 3G had spurred operators to spend billions of euros on operating licenses from government auctions. However, this spending left the companies so deeply in debt that they lost investor support to roll out 3G networks at the pace they had originally intended. This caused the stagnation of 3G cellular phone technology, not only in Europe but also in Japan, the US, and all over the world. 2.1.3 Social Change in Lifestyle The development and propagation of cellular voice systems over the past several years has exposed the capabilities and the usefulness of wireless communications and, thus, has paved the way for wide-area wireless data applications and mobile Internet. The demand for mobile Internet is experiencing a significant increase and is turning into a communications revolution that can change the lifestyle pattern in the near future. The worldwide wireless broadband audience of five million in 2005 is expected to grow by 40 percent yearly through 20108.

Demand for Mobile Usage for Notebook PC Users

7 8

Cell phones enabled people to communicate all over the place. However, there is still a space limitation for notebook PC users. They usually use PC inside the rooms and buildings to download music, watching video streaming service, and playing online games thorough the Internet. To make these users comfortable, it is required to provide high speed, high quality and low cost services at any time at any place. The demand for high-speed mobile data communication services, particularly in the notebook PC market, is the next big growth area for wireless service providers (See Appendix 2). Potential in Developing Countries In several regions of the world, copper wiring to homes or businesses doesnt exist. In these areas, a fixed wireless offering that is based on an open standard makes more economic sense than deploying copper wiring that can easily be ripped out and resold on the open market and that gives no economic return due to the low concentration of users. The total market has so far been relatively small, but the technologies would provide a much needed service in those countries. On the other hand, in developed countries, consumers who already utilize 3G and Wi-Fi services will have less incentive to adopt WiMax. Market opportunity is not being created but rather being redefined by WiMax. 2.1.4 Technology Premature Technology WiMax is still in the early stage of adoption and overall value (See Appendix 3), the technology is now being tested by British Telecom in Ireland and Scotland, and Millicom Argentina with Alvarion and Intel9. Most operators are planning to conduct field trials later in 2005 or 2006 with a focus only on fixed wireless services. For portable and mobile uses, it is too premature to seriously evaluate WiMax at this stage. In addition, WiMax standard

will necessarily have a smaller coverage and lower speed, since portable devices like
9

notebook computers generally cannot afford the battery budget for high-power transmitter output. Negative Factors of Acquisition/Installation Costs WiMax installation cost might not become smaller than we expected. For example, acquiring a site in North America is easily reaching $25,00010, plus ongoing lease costs. Also, considering that the operators in Europe are now struggling to find enough sites for their UMTA networks, it would be more difficult than we expect to allocate the WiMax antennas efficiently. In addition, using relatively high radio frequency is a disadvantage because effective cell radius becomes smaller, which requires a larger number of antennas. Moreover, a wide variety of spectrum choices increase the costs of producing multi-band devices or chipsets. All of these factors will result in the increase of installation costs which make WiMax technology less attractive. Relation with Other Technology Since WiMax has not fully addressed the service layer, it is not clear whether WiMax complements 3G wireless service and compete with already inexpensive Wi-Fi service or both complements and/or competes with traditional wireless broadband services. In addition, the other forums, such as 3GPP will seek future revisions of the 3G technology standard to improve the efficiency, performance or cost effectiveness, and expand the technologys domain of applicability in the wireless market. For example, 3G technology is transitioning to an all-IP core at which point it will greatly reduce its own cost structure and achieve higher scalability than today. These movements would jeopardize the coexistence of WiMax and other wireless technologies (See Appendix 4). Quality of service

10

Some operators might even consider using WiMax in unlicensed spectrum for their businesses, but this scenario is unlikely in most instances since the potential for interference would exist and this interference could detrimentally impact the quality of the overall network.

2.2 SWOT Analysis

2.2.1 Strength Longer distance As a metropolitan area network (MAN) technology with a range of up 30 miles of linear service and a peak data rate of 70 Mbps, WiMax can be deployed to provide last-mile wireless broadband access on a point to multi-point basis in rural and underserved areas. It serves as an improvement on previous fixed wireless access technologies such as Local Multipoint Distribution Services (LMDS), which acts in a limited spectrum band and cover shorter distances. On the other hand, because it can be used over relatively long distances, it is an effective last mile solution for delivering broadband to the home, and for delivering wireless services to places like airports, college campuses, and small communities. High-bandwidth capability and cost effective WiMax has the advantage of enabling operators to offer broadband services without use of the incumbents local loop infrastructure, ensuring greater control over network operation. They can also provide reliable voice, data and video services across wide operating environments. It provides a shared data rate of up to 100Mbps, which is enough to service up to a thousand homes with high-speed access.

Easy to implement

10

Because WiMax does not depend on cables to connect each endpoint, deploying WiMax to an entire high-rise, community or campus can be done in a matter of a couple days, saving significant amounts of manpower. 2.2.2 Weakness Latency problems Latency problem means that WiMax will be an expensive medium to deploy compared with the existing DSL and cable network installed by carriers. Therefore, WiMax is likely to remain as a niche in the consumer domain, catering for households that are out of reach of DSL and cable, as well as those with technophile occupants. High subscription costs The high subscription costs, the relative immaturity of technologies and the requirement for high towers (causing concerns from community groups) suggest these services are unlikely to compete directly with DSL and cable in the medium term. Immaturity of technologies The mobile WiMax community is faced technical and competitive challenges since the 802.16e11 specification is not yet finished. Certified mobile WiMax equipment will arrive during or after 2007 and mobile carriers typically test new technologies from 12 months to 18 months before implementing them throughout the network. For a complete timing of WiMax mid-term vision see Appendix 5.

Mobile uncertainty (Roaming problem)

11

11

WiMax has the roaming problem. It leads to consuming more battery energy. Therefore, battery capacity will be other prerequisites for the mass uptake of WiMax. Intels Battery Life Optimization Program is working towards a goal of eight-hour laptop battery life by 2010 to support full mobility for broadband wireless. Wi-Fi has the same problem, but 3G doesnt have. 2. 2.3 Opportunity Growing market The worldwide wireless broadband audience of five million in 2005 is expected to grow by 40 percent yearly through 2010 and the Broadband wireless market is predicted to pass the $2 billion mark in 2010, WiMax vendors will be perfectly poised to take advantage of this robust market. Needs for universal standards Some research indicates that a tipping point that will drive increased unit demand is likely to occur due to effects of standardization which will help drive the price equation, stimulate market driven demand, and provide increased supply stability and compatibility across similar equipment profiles. Therefore, WiMax could benefit service providers through its character of interoperability, ease of installation and mobility. 2.2.4 Threat Spectrum and regulation constrains WiMax needs lower bands to economically deploy networks that will provide full mobility. Higher than 3GHz bands are not suitable for mobile networks as proper coverage would require too many base stations compared to sub 1GHz bands. The WiMax regulatory group is working towards influencing the regulatory bodies worldwide to open up bands for

12

WiMax mobility. Those bands could include the 700MHz and 450MHz. The regulatory working group is also working to create an environment to support eventual global roaming for nomadic & mobile WiMax devices Security considerations Security risks remain within the signalling servers themselves with hackers employing one of several methods to obtain unauthorized access. OEMs must address each of these methods individually and as a whole when developing effective security infrastructure that can thwart hackers. Potential substitutes New technology could kill WiMax. For example, Techworld reports that a Floridabased start-up, xG, has developed a technology that's a 1000 times more efficient than WiMax and which could, in theory, lead to wireless LANs being powered by watch batteries. It is still in early development, but this technology could allow anyone to set up as an ISP. 12 Therefore, there exist new technologies that could replace WiMax before it even gets off the ground.

12

13

3. Recommendation and Implementation

Based on the analyses above, we would like to recommend on how to choose an appropriate target market for WiMax and how to successfully position and implement WiMax in this market.

3.1 Targeting
Developing Country vs. Developed Country To identify the targeted countries for WiMax deployment, a correlation analysis has been done between each countrys broadband penetration and its national income level (GDP per Capita). The finding is broadband penetration is positively correlated to national income level. In other words the higher the income level, the higher the broadband penetration. However in some counties like Korea, the penetration is extremely high compared to its income level. These countries are not a good choice for WiMax due to the existence of their well established broadband infrastructure. On the contrary to the Korea case, some high income level countries have relatively low broadband penetration, such as Germany. Its broadband penetration is only 10%, which makes itself a perfect market for WiMax. In conclusion, WiMax technology should be focused on countries with low broadband penetration (See Appendix 6). Urban Area vs. Rural Area Demographics play a key role in determining the business feasibility of any telecom network. To discover which segment is the most attracted to WiMax, an assessment has been conducted on the basis of 4 main criteria: Customer Demand, Technology Eligibility, Market Competition, and Profitability. Our recommendation as a result is WiMax should go for rural area (Appendix 7).

14

Customer demand (Go Urban)

<Urban Area> Large Customer Base: Urban area has a bigger population as such more potential WiMax customers. So service providers will have a higher revenue potential. High Demand: There is a significant need for wireless Internet access for business reasons in office high rises and other public places. The fast paced life style in urban area makes people more likely to need reliable high speed wireless access service at every corner. <Rural Area> Small Population: It is sparsely populated with only a small number of businesses. Neither its small number of businesses nor its more laid back life style will generate a strong demand for wireless high speed Internet. Pent-up Demand: The existing poor copper telephone line cannot satisfy customer demand for good quality service and high speed access. There might be some pent-up demand for high speed Internet access because of the lack of broadband access infrastructure. Technology Eligibility (Go Rural) <Urban Area> Interference: In urban area, high rises and large buildings will create a higher level of interference. interfered. Cross Connect: There are a variety of signals from TV/radio stations even automatic doors, flying in the urban area. Therefore, unless government regulates the specified spectrum for WiMax, the wireless broadband signal will get crossed, undermining the quality of service. <Rural Area> Long Distance: In rural area customers residence is far from central offices. Existing wired or wireless technologies have inherent limitations either in performance or in capacity. For Since WiMax use quite high frequency band, it is relatively easy to be

15

example, ADSL has the 6 km maximum distance on copper wire to deliver sufficient performance. It makes economically not viable to overcome these inherent limitations on the existing technologies to provide quality wireless broadband services in rural area. Low Interference: Since most of rural areas are relative flat, the signals from a transmitter can go straight to a customers receiver without any interference. But the bad weather like fog or thunder storm is a potential cause of interference. Possibility of Unlicensed Band: In rural area, radio spectrum for WiMax is not regulated; thus it is relatively easy to apply the technology. Even in some cases, it is possible to use unlicensed spectrum.

Competition (Go Rural)

<Urban Area> Strong competition: Due to higher density of potential customers, more service providers will enter into this market. So the urban market is more competitive. As a result, it will be incurred more marketing and sales expenses to secure market share. The competition is primarily driven by the number of players and availability of alternative technologies. In some areas, high speed broadband coverage almost reaches the maximum (e.g. Korea 73%); these markets started to be saturated. <Rural Area> Few competitors: There are not many service providers in rural areas, even though some areas have a big potential for broadband wireless access and WiMax services. Government Support: In rural areas, governments at all levels are promoting wireless broadband through continuing frequency allocation and subsidies to make the rural business case more attractive in order to improve the productivity and information technology in rural area.

Profitability (Go Rural)

16

<Urban Area> High Switching Cost: The service providers have made huge investments in their existing technologies. Before switching to WiMax, they have to make sure if they have recouped their initial investment and maximized their return. So there will be a strong resistance for existing providers to switch to WiMax. <Rural Area> Low Cost Low Return: Because of the significant less number of interfering objects in rural area, the investment in equipment and the set-up cost are much lower. In addition, service providers can build infrastructure from scratch without any switching cost. Even though the revenue stream in rural area is low, its profitability is better than urban area in the short run according to the simulation results from the WiMax Forum due to the fact customers value of a network is linearly related to the squared number of customers

3.2 Positioning
Even though WiMaxs innovation offers significant improvements in terms of speed and area coverage, it would fail to replace existing technologies that are already widely adopted in the short run, such as 3G and Wi-Fi. As shown in Appendix 8, we found out that the technologys stand-alone utility is not enough to exceed the total value of the incumbent standard (e.g. Wi-Fis technology + installed base+ complementary goods). Assuming

WiMaxs installed base and complementary goods are compatible with that of the existing Wi-Fi, the WiMax technology may offer greater overall value to users than Wi-Fi but smaller than that of 3G. From this fact, we suggest that WiMax enter into the fixed wireless market (Niche) at this stage. One thing we have to pay attention to is that the WiMaxs perceived value may be greater than actual value because of the too much expectation and heavy promotion (See Appendix 9), causing WiMax technology be overvalued.

17

3.3 Implementing
The optimal timing of entry is determined by several major factors: (1) the advantage margin of the new innovation, (2) customer expectations, (3) the threat of competitive entry, (4) the increase of profitability. In terms of the advantage of innovation, WiMaxs

technology is almost ready for fixed wireless usage and better than Wi-Fi at this stage; thus it would be better to enter into the market as soon as possible. In terms of the customer expectation, overall expectation seems high enough for the wide variety of wireless usage, such as business, residence, appliance and car, etc. So there will be an enough customer base in this niche market. In terms of the competition, the improvement of Wi-Fi/3G technology seems to be not ready by 2010, so now is a good timing for WiMax to enter into the market. In terms of the profitability, the early market entry can capture scarce resource such as key customers, key locations, distribution channel and relationship with suppliers. Targeting the business users can be one of the good solutions because they have a very high ARPU (Average Revenue per User). A real example (See Appendix 10) shows small providers can leverage WiMaxs competitive advantages in the market. We recommend that the big service providers can use WiMax as a supplementary technology to penetrate rural market. To small service providers which could not afford 3Gs high license and equipment costs, WiMax is a powerful technology for them to compete with established service providers and gain niche market share both in urban and rural areas.

18

Appendix 1: Communication Speed and Area Coverage

(IEEE802.15) 1Gbps UWB High Speed Wireless PAN

(IEEE802.11)

(IEEE802.16)

(3GPP)

100Mbps

Next Generation Wi-Fi Wi-Fi

10Mbps 1Mbps Bluetooth 1m 10m PAN

WiMAX
100m (up to 50km) MAN

4G 3G
2.5G

LAN

(up to 30km) WAN

19

Appendix 2: Forecast demand for notebook computers

20

Appendix 3: WiMax in the technological lifecycle

21

Appendix 4: Relation with other wireless technologies

22

Appendix 5: Mid-time WiMax Vision

23

Appendix 6: Penetration Rate vs. GDP per Capite

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 GDP/Capta

Broadband Penetration Rate

US China Japan Korea France Germany UK Canada Italy Taiwan

24

Appendix 7: Target Area (Urban or Rural)

Developed, Urban
High Density Busy Life Style More Interference Short Distance Many Players (DSL/Cable/3G/WiFi Good for Long-term High Cost High Return Customer Demand

Developing, Sub Urban, Rural

Low Density Slow Life Style Less Interference Long Distance Few Players (Copper wire Good for Short-term Low Cost Low Return

Technology Eligibility

Competition

Profitability

25

Appendix 8: Value of Technology

Fix Market (Niche)

Comp. Goods Inst. Base Tech Utility

Wireless (Mass)
Comp. Goods Inst. Base Tech Utility

Value

Comp. Goods Inst. Base Tech Utility

Wi-Fi

WiMax

3G

26

Appendix 9: Risk of Devaluation

R ko d v lu tio is f e a a n P rc iv d e e e
C m. o p Go s od In t. s Bs ae Tc eh U tility

A tu l c a
C m. o p Go s od In t. s Bs ae Tc eh U tility

-T om c e p c tio o u h x e ta n -T c n lo ic l lim tio eho g a ita n (IP 6 B tte , In rfe n e v , a ry te re c )

27

Appendix 10: WiMax Service Provider - NextWeb

NextWeb, Inc. is a California's largest fixed-wireless Internet service provider for business, providing high-speed service to more than 2,000 enterprise customers. In 2004, the company was named one of the 50 fastest growing Bay Area companies by all three leading business publications in the Industry. NextWeb's service is available in over 200,000 business locations and more than 175 cities throughout California. Typically installed in just three to seven days, NextWeb's standard Super-T service is 30 percent faster than a T1 at 70% of the price, easily scaling to six times the speed of a T1. The company is active in the formation of industry standards, and is a member of the WiMax Forum and the Wireless Communications Association International (WCA). Because NextWeb owns and maintains its own independent telecommunications network and connects directly to the Internet backbone, the company's service completely bypasses telephone and cable companies, providing customers with significantly more bandwidth at substantially lower startup and monthly costs. The fixed-wireless company guarantees its high-speed Internet service will be up and running for its customers in three to seven business days, compared to weeks or months typically associated with larger wire line carriers .

28

Asia Pacific in WiMax Market <http://www.mobiledia.com/news/37172.html>

Source: http://www.WiMax-industry.com/pr/1f.htm
WiMax Forum, <http://www.WiMaxforum.org/about/roster/> CIA, World fact book, <http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/in.html>

Driving the 21st century world Economy, Michael http://www.ntia.doc.gov/ntiahome/speeches/2005/MG_FCBA_09162005.pdf

<http://www.ggrpg.com/view/new_technology_could_kill_WiMax/1588.html> Press release, Taipei, Adam Hwang, DigTimes.com, Aug 2, 2005. Driving the 21st century world Economy, Michael D. Gallagher, <http://www.ntia.doc.gov/ntiahome/speeches/2005/MG_FCBA_09162005.pdf>

D.

Gallagher,

http://www.visantstrategies.com/pr80216.htm Intel, The technology vision for WiMax, <http://www.intel.com/standards/case/case_WiMax.htm> WiMax Opportunity and Challenge in a wireless world, July 2005, Michael W. Thelander, <http://www.cdg.org/resources/white_papers/files/WiMax%20July%202005.pdf>

29