World and Business Technology Outlook 2015

Chris Eaton
Version 1.0 March 2008

Arctic Resource War Baby Boomers

Browser based 3D environments

Digital downloads
Generation X Portals

Generation Y

markets in Asia

Social Computing

Social Networking Broker

People Technology Business Economic Environment Resources Political

People
The Baby Boomer generation prefer casual work, when they want. A percentage migrate to warmer climates. Quality of life is arguably better than their children. Generation Y are advantaged by computer literacy and their experience from birth, of computers. They expect multiple employers in their career they have reduced company loyalty. They are ethically and environmentally driven in selecting an employer. They require more immediate recognition for their talents and expect quick placement and advancement. Girls outperform boys academically. Entry to technology degrees continues to reduce compared to other subjects. Generation X are now parents and care more about the futures of their children they are more focussed on Green issues and active in doing something about them but will not compromise quality of life to be Green. They seek stability in work.

People

IT is an unattractive career to North America and Western Europe Generation Y. It is seen as volatile with global off-shoring seen as a likely outcome to any IT job. The constant sea of change in technology means constant re-skilling as demand for particular technologies ebbs and flows. Asian aspirations grow in basic standards of living including car and home ownership. This drives energy demands and increased pressure on the environment. Attractiveness of emigrating to Western Europe and North America reduces as quality of life increases at home. Population increases pressures food production with possible availability issues.

Technology Social Computing

Social networking sites consolidate and social networking brokers emerge to communicate between different social networking offerings and businesses who are exploiting social networking. A clear leader in this market will emerge with substantial market capitalisation. Virtual worlds move from niche interest group to mainstream starting to challenge the 2D internet. This is partly incremental but large scale adoption is driven by a killer social networking application with multi platform appeal, it is possible that this will be delivered as a browser based 3D environment.

Technology Social Computing

Social Computing data grows exponentially as businesses join together business with social computing both for internal collaboration and customer interaction. For instance when you buy an airline ticket this updates your preferred social networking site through social networking brokers. Assuming significant numbers of businesses follow this model then high volumes of fast moving interactive data are generated. Those individuals able to follow and leverage the information volumes are advantaged, typically this will be Generation Y. The Blu-Ray win over HD-DVD is short lived as disc media reduces in importance compared to digital downloads. Network connectivity rises in relative importance to other hardware components to deliver content on demand.

Technology Network/Gaming

Next generation consoles based on multi-multi core processors with higher network integration. Lessons learned from mid 2000 console releases stress usability, killer application, price point and higher focus on social computing. Most content including games are digital downloads rather than physical media. A console might be released with no method other than loading content over a network. Consoles and Digital recorders have a terabyte or more of disk space. Complex games arrive in the web browser including 3d games such as http://www.quakelive.com/ these games are platform agnostic with no need for physical or even online distribution, however network bandwidth is important. A platform independent killer social computing on a browser based 3D environment may dominate the 3d virtual world scene integrated other web and business social networking applications through a social networking broker.

Technology Enterprise IT Strategy

General enterprise architecture thinking begins to trend away from large ERP installations. This is driven by increased need for business flexibility and the high total cost of ownership, implementation complexity and cost of ERP implementation. Smaller lightweight situational applications joined together as greater composite applications (portals and mashups) emerge as the replacement. Multiple applications are joined together in single next generation portals enabled by advancing integration technologies such as Enterprise Service Buses. A vision of CAD/CAM construction of software components gets closer. Componentisation through web and REST services combined with cataloguing and advances in configuration of middleware and portals through visual tools instead of bespoke programming of middleware move this forward substantially.

Technology - Enterprise IT Strategy

The next big ERP system arrives developed by an Asian software house focusing on Asian markets, business processes and legislation. It is priced for Asia consumers. This challenges Oracle and SAP in these emerging markets. The importance of Software as a Service (SaaS) increases. SaaS vendors focused on application nimbleness and customer relations succeed. From a technology point of view SaaS vendors with portals and system to system integration capabilities above their competitors are preferred by customers. Continuing the theme of a generalised trend away from development complexity, REST overtakes web services (WSDL/UDDI/SOAP) as the architectural style of choice.

Technology - Hardware

Moores law continues to be met with multi core processors. With any thing up to 32 or 64 processors on a single die. OS and software changes will be needed to exploit this power, Open source software especially is best placed to rise to this opportunity and in particular Linux. 64 bit processors become standard on the desktop overcoming 4GB memory limit of 32 bit processors this is an important trend for software companies. Hard disk sizes continue to increase, and prices fall, digital recorders and consoles have over 1TB of storage.

Technology - Hardware

Light Emitting Polymers (LEP) just begin to be released in a few products. This is the most disruptive technology since the internet. By 2020 LEP replaces all previous display formats. The physical flexibility of polymers and cheap production (similar cost to printing on paper using a laser printer) means LEP appears everywhere. It will be possible to have realtime on the fly personalisation on any polymer surface including clothing, cars, wallpaper, etc. There are Radical implications to consumer to computer interaction. The need for LCD and traditional displays disappears as computers display on any polymer surface available in the immediate proximity including your wall or your t-shirt or even someone else's t-shirt.

Business - Workforce

Successful businesses develop multiple work patterns to suit Generation Y, X and Baby Boomers. Generation Y expect fast progression, higher value jobs with wide range of skills and growth. Generation X seek stability and are unsettled by the rapid pace of technology change. Baby Boomers seek to work when they want rather than have permanent commitments, their financial independence frees them from the burdens felt by Generation X. Business seek to change the models for delivering IT development to leverage low cost global resources, and baby boomers. Work is packaged and outsourced, possibly through reverse auctions, to individual or specialist companies (topcoder.com). This challenges the need for in house development resources in most companies. Methodologies are adapted to package, sell, track and complete small packages of work.

Business - Workforce

Businesses sow the seed for future success by being an attractive employer for women, especially in Generation Y who have academically exceeded their male peers Leaders in global organisations are expected to have multi country experience, those reaching for the very top of the organisation must have work experience in markets in Asia.

Business - Workforce

Critical IT skills shortage in Western Europe and North America are addressed with Landed Resources. These human resources are employed in Europe and North America by subsidiaries of global IT organisations for short durations thus avoiding full employee liability against the parent company but making them available for work. High achieving Landed Resources are transferred to permanent employment in the parent company providing the parent company with a high value, low risk, talent incubator.

Business - Sales

Successful companies have a highly developed global brand and a reputation for Innovation. Generating continuous anticipation for future products and delivering against the expectation defines the market leaders (Apple, Id Software). Consumers expect Green products and low energy consumption in all electronic products. Power consumption may become a more important factor in purchases.

Business - Sales

Online purchases exceed store/high street spending in some countries. Companies who do not invest in usability and regular improvements to their web presence disadvantage themselves. The most successful businesses adopt Social Computing into Sales, Marketing, Customer Relationship Management and Internal Operations. Global Businesses continue to focus on Eastern Europe and markets in Asia as the most likely opportunity for double digit growth. Understanding consumers locally becomes increasingly important. This poses a dilemma for organisations based in North America and Western Europe who have taken significant steps to consolidate global operations in their home countries reducing local country presence.

Business - Innovation

Successful businesses strike a balance between freedom to innovate and control (Lessig). In an IT context this will mean releasing control to enable faster and cheaper transformations of internal processes and modifications in business models and methods to maximise: global resources generational resources (X,Y, Baby Boomer) opportunities in social computing markets in Asia. Social computing becomes a primary driver of innovation. The ability to reach, discuss and develop solutions through a hugely diverse group will lead to better products. Businesses which fail to implement product development leveraging social computing fall behind.

Business - Legal

Global Business exerts pressure to reduce disparities in data privacy laws across the globe. Global Integrated Enterprises require borderless flow of information. Those companies which successfully overcome these challenges are best placed to succeed. Patent law helps large business protect their assets, but do little to help smaller businesses who have neither the resources to register patents nor the financial muscle to challenge infringements. Patent reforms are a debating point but little change occurs.

Resources

Russia starts to mine the Lomonosov Ridge in the Artic to cope with pressure on their Oil, Gas and Mineral reserves. This sparks international outrage and a possible Arctic Resource War headed by the US. This puts Western European countries and possibly India and China dependant on Russian oil, gas and minerals in a very difficult dilemma; they either support Russia which jeopardises relations with the US or support the US and lose access to Russian energy reserves. Countries move at differing paces to green energy sources but in total does little to move the dependency on oil, gas and coal. Energy prices dramatically increase. Commercial nuclear power becomes a viable alternative including end of life clean-up. Public acceptable of nuclear power increases.

Resources

Increase in total energy consumption worldwide. Oil discoveries begin to fall short of those required to keep with demand. Traditional oil production processes can no longer continue to meet demand; significant price increases for oil and petrol. Wealth increases in Asia drive higher car ownership pressurising oil supplies. India and China dependence on Russian energy supplies increase. Supply of Petrol and Diesel powered Cars in North America and Europe just begin to emerge as a luxury.

Economic

The US Dollar continues to be locked in the doldrums. Earlier shifts of manufacturing to markets in Asia means the US economy is predominantly services based which has low export potential. The weakened Dollar becomes less attractive to Asian manufacturers compared to local Asian currencies and the Euro driving cost increases to the US. Weakened currency means outsourcing becomes less financially attractive to US and Western European countries and indeed it is possible US manufacturing will start to recover. Market saturation in North American and European markets means organic growth is limited across the board. Double digit growth in technology markets is only achievable by acquisition. Double digit organic growth opportunities exist only in Eastern Europe, especially Russia, and tiger markets in Asia. This is threat to Generation X in IT jobs who fear their worth as employees has considerably eroded.

Economic

Africa and China begins to emerge in low end services markets such as call centres challenging Indian dominance. Companies begin to move business support from India to Africa. Indian employees are made redundant as a result which comes as a startling shock to the India technology industry as technology employment and the Indian economy has been strong over the last seven years. India and China emerge as leaders in software development. The unattractiveness of IT as a career to Generation Y in North America and Western Europe begins to bite.

Environment

Extreme Weather continues across the world, news on flooding, hurricanes, snow and other weather effects become more frequent. Coastal dwelling becomes less desirable. The world sits on the cusp of an Arctic Resource War leading to semipermanent human encampments on the Artic ice sheets pressuring local wildlife through human presence, waste disposal and pollution. Artic ice shelves and sea ice, continue to retreat. Glacial retreat continues all over the world.

Political

Green continues as a high profile political issue. However, little is really done by governments to address these issues. Green political parties are still not palatable to the population at large since they compromise current lifestyle such as car ownership and restricted energy consumption. Securing energy resources rises in importance on the Political agenda. The possible Arctic Resource War puts countries dependant on Russia Oil, Gas and Mineral reserves in a difficult dilemma. Western European countries and possibly India and China dependant on Russian oil, gas and minerals are presented with a very difficult dilemma; they either support Russia which jeopardises relations with the US or support the US and lose access to Russian energy reserves.

Political - Security

Iran continues as an unpredictable political country, but they are not attacked by the West unless they make an attack of some sort to another country. Terrorist activity continues to be a high political agenda item with highest threats expected in the US and UK and other countries supporting the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Online threats continue, revised development techniques and regular patching prevent large scale issues like Code Red. Botnets are the largest threat used for denial of service attacks against specific targets, or Spam rather than to disrupt end users.

Appendix
Chris Eaton tf_slarti@hotmail.com http://2015technologyoutlook.blogspot.com/ Pictures http://earthsim www.earthsim.tv please note the license agreement for both applications does not allow for use of this software for commercial use and presumably screen captures Graphics editing via Gimp www.gimp.org