Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: ASEAN Divided on South China Sea Strategy? Carlyle A. Thayer April 5, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] Asyouknow,theASEANtwodaysummitmeetingconcludedinPhnomPenh(April34). TherewasadebateonwhetherornotCambodiahadcomeunderChinesepressureon theSouthChinaSeaissue.TherewasalackoftrustbetweenASEANmembers.Inthis context,itisexpectedthatthefinaldraftofCodeofConduct(COC)willbereachedat theendof2012assetbyASEANbeforebringingChinatothetable. Could you provide your assessment of the summit meetings, especially the process of findingacommonpositionregardingtheSouthChinaSeabetweenASEANmembers?If we review ASEANs handling of such hot regional issues as the South China Sea, Myanmar and North Korea, should we conclude that ASEAN is a united or a divided organization? ANSWER:TheASEANSummitmeetstwiceayear.Itisdividedintotwoparts,aformal partthatreviewsprogressonawidevarietyofissuessincethelastSummit.Thesecond part is an informal retreat of leaders. Cambodia, as ASEAN Chair, took the decision to remove the South China Sea as an agenda item. Cambodia undoubtedly was acting under pressure from China,but it was also honouring a timeworn ASEAN tradition of avoiding direct controversy. Vietnam did the same thing as chair of the ADMM Plus meeting knowing that if the South China Sea were on the formal agenda China would notattend.TheASEANChaircaninfluencetheagendatoacertainextentandtheChair cancertainlydecidewhichissuestobeproactiveonandwhichissuesshouldreceiveless priority.ButtheASEANChaircannotignoretheviewsofothermembers. At the 20th ASEAN Summit the South China Sea was raised as an issue and the final statement included an item headed South China Sea. This section contained two paragraphs. The first paragraph merely repeated past ASEAN statements on the question.ASEANwouldintensifyitseffortstoimplementtheDOC.Thereisnothingnew here.ThesecondparagraphmadenomentionoftheCodeofConductbutdidmention thatASEANlookedforwardtofuturemeetingwithChina.

It is clear there are differences within ASEAN on how to draft a policy on the South China Sea. These differences were evident before the ASEAN Summit. Indonesia has made it known it does not support a dispute settlement mechanism in a Code of Conduct, for example. The main issue at the 20th ASEAN Summit was the timing of China's involvement with ASEAN on negotiating a Code of Conduct. Last November IndonesiawasquiteclearthatconsensushadbeenreachedforASEANtodiscussadraft COCfirstandthenonceagreementhadbeenreachedtopresentthedraftCOCtoChina for consideration. Now China has turned up like an uninvited guest and embarrassed ASEANbyaskingtobeincludedatanearlierstage. ASEAN does not like controversy and it has developed well honed skills at conflict avoidance.Thus,theissuefacingASEANwhethertochangetheexistingconsensusand ifsowhen.ChinahascastalongshadowoverASEANproceedingsanditappearslikely ASEANwillrepositionitselftoaccommodateChina. ASEANhassetatrapforitselfbytryingtoreachagreementonaCOCbyNovember,the tenth anniversary of the 2002 DOC. This means negotiations will be hurried and compromiseswillbemadetofindtheminimumcommonground.Thereisarealdanger that the COC will not be the binding treaty some members of ASEAN seek. It will be anotherpoliticalstatementleavingituptothegoodwillofthepartiestoactproperly. TobeeffectivetheCOCmustcontainprovisionstopreventChineseparamilitaryships fromusingforceinexercisingjurisdictionindisputedwaters.ItisunlikelythatChinawill showselfrestraintwhenoilexplorationlicensesareissuedbythePhilippinesandwhen oilsurveyscontinueoffVietnam'scoast. Chinafavoursdrawingoutnegotiationsfortworeasons.First,itcantakeadvantageof divisionswithinASEAN.Second,aslongasASEANandChinaarediscussingSouthChina Sea issues the United States is cut out from any role. China aims to pursue a 'softly softly'diplomaticapproachuntiltheASEANSummitattheendoftheyear.Thiswillbuy timetoimproveitsprestigeandcarryoutapowershiftofitsleaders.ByNovemberit willalsobeclearwhothenextpresidentoftheUnitedStateswillbe.