Sample size

Executive summary
With a sample of 489 subjects, the study will report the mean with an error margin of plus/minus 0.04 points. Concretely, in 95 of 100 studies the reported mean will fall within 0.04 points of the true value.

Details
The study will report the mean on a scale called Test score which has a possible range of 0.00 to 800.00. We want to estimate the mean precisely, which we define as within (plus/minus) 0.04 points of the true value. The computation of sample size is based on the following decisions and assumptions. Error margin We have set the allowable error margin as plus/minus 0.04 points. Pattern of scores The standard deviation of the scores is expcted to be 0.45.

Missing We assume that there will be no missing data. Sample Size The study will enroll 489 people. With this sample size, there is a 95% likelihood that the sample mean will fall within 0.04 points of the true mean. If we observe a mean of 0.15 we will be able to report that the true mean probably falls in the range of 0.15 plus/minus 0.04 points.

Understanding the decisions and assumptions

The decision to use a sample size of 489 is based on the decisions and assumptions outlined above. Therefore, it is instructive to consider what sample size would be required if we adopted a different set of decisions and/or assumptions. Computation of the required sample size is based primarily on three factors, as follows. Margin of error One factor that determines the required sample size is the acceptable margin of error. If we are willing to accept a relatively wide margin of error we'll need a relatively small sample. By contrast, if we desire a relatively narrow margin of error we'll need a relatively large sample. For an error margin of plus/minus 0.04 points we need 489 subjects. If we were to double the error margin (to 0.08 points) the sample size would be reduced to 124 subjects. By contrast, if we were to cut the error margin in half (to 0.020 points) the required sample size would increase to 1,948 subjects. Dispersion of scores One factor that determines the required sample size is the dispersion of scores. If scores are clustered in a narrow range, the error will tend to be small and the required sample size is relatively low. By contrast, if the scores fall over a wider range, the error will tend to be larger and the required sample size is relatively high. The dispersion is quantified using the standard deviation of the scores. The standard deviation used in our computations (0.45) leads to a required sample size of 489. If the true standard deviation is actually (for example) 10% larger than assumed, we would need a sample size of 591. By contrast, if the true standard deviation is actually 10% smaller than assumed, we would need a sample size of only 397. Missing data Another factor that determines the required sample size is the percent of missing data. We compute the number of subjects actually needed for the analysis, and then adjust that number to ensure that we will have that number of scores after the missing subjects are excluded.

In computing the sample size to be 489 we assume that there will be no missing data. If the actual rate of missing data is 2%, we would need a sample size of 499. Note that the adjustment for missing data assumes that the data are missing completely at random. No attempt is made to adjust for the possibility that people who fail to respond differ in some ways from people who do provide a response. Alpha In computing the sample size we assume that we want to be 95% certain that the observed value falls within the margin of error (rather than 90% certain, for example) and also that we are concerned with errors in either direction. Changing either of these assumptions would also affect the sample size required. Concluding remarks This discussion is intended to highlight the importance of the assumptions in computing sample size. Where possible, it may be a good idea to take account of alternate assumptions to ensure that the sample size is adequate even if (for example) the dispersion of scores or the missing data rate is greater than expected.

Disclaimer
This report is intended to help researchers use the program, and not to take the place of consultation with an expert statistician.