The ACEGES project Dr.

Vlasios Voudouris

Why the ACEGES project?

Business schools increasingly understand the importance of sustainable thinking

Because businesses need to develop long-term strategies to secure their survival within a changing business environment
Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System (ACEGES) = new generation of long-term decision scenarios Scenarios are plausible stories about the future Scenario developers MUST use computational tools to support the non-mechanistic, mental process of scenario development

Business strategists SHOULD use scenarios to test the resilience of their strategies
Policy makers SHOULD use scenarios to design policies that perform well under alternative futures

Our students are introduced to ACEGES-based scenarios as a way of developing sustainable strategies and thinking about new business models

How ACEGES was integrated into the educational programme?

We follow a project-based approach given real-world datasets

Students are given a single question to address such as What is the global production outlook of oil until 2050?
Students form scenario teams (no more than 6 students per scenario team) Each scenario team, conducts a historical research on the following key building blocks:

Scenarios dimensions Risk

ACEGES

Research

Decision Scenarios

and what about the scenario process ?

What is the Problem?

ACEGES Model

ABM ANALYTICS Tools

ABM

What about the current events in MENA? The Berlin Wall of MENA! "This is a powderkeg that could go up at any moment"

FROM Turmoil TO Tsunami as a threat to oil and gas output

Unrest in MENA highlights the possibility of successful anti- regime protests occurring in apparently unlikely environments. Economist Intelligence Unit, 10 February 2011

Looking north-east of MENA, namely FSU

Todays Tiananmen is not Tahrir David Pilling, Financial Times, 17 February 2011

The next Turkey or the next Pakistan? Gideon Rachman, Financial Times, 15 February 2011

No Egyptian leader will make Mubaraks mistake again, which does not portend well for Washingtons position in the Middle East.... The United States should greatly lower its expectations of what is possible in the post-Mubarak era and come to terms with the end of the strategic relationship. Steven A Cook, Council on Foreign Relations, 2 February 2011

Looking south of MENA, namely Sub-Saharan Africa

What about the current events in MENA? what about wider implications?

Key Uncertainties

Key Uncertainties

Traditional models

Traditional models

Traditional models

Traditional models: discrete scenarios

Traditional models: How?

Uncertainties

Model

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

ACEGES-based scenarios: continuous scenarios

ACEGES-based scenarios : How?

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

ACEGES-based scenarios : How?

Uncertainties

Model

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Crude oil price changes

Oil cost curves

 what about above ground supply shocks?

ACEGES - DEMO

Thank You
Dr. Vlasios Voudouris