Introduction:

Crop modeling can also be useful as a means to help the scientist define research priorities. Using a model to estimate the importance and the effect of certain parameters, a researcher can observe which factors should be more studied in future research, thus increasing the understanding of the system. The model has also the potential of helping to understand the basic interactions in the soil-plant-atmosphere system.

,A

model is A representation of an object, system or idea in some form

other than that of the entity itself . Its purpose is usually to aid in explaining, understanding or improving performance of a system. A model is, by definition Satellite Remote Sensing and GIS Applications in Agricultural Meteorology

TYPES OF MODELS
Depending upon the purpose for which it is designed the models are classified into different groups or types. Of them a few are :

a. Statistical models: These models express the relationship between

yield or yield components and weather parameters. In these models relationships are measured in a system using statistical techniques (Table 1). Example: Step down regressions, correlation, etc.

b. Mechanistic models: These models explain not only the relationship

between weather parameters and yield, but also the mechanism of these models (explains the relationship of influencing dependent variables). These models are based on physical selection.

c. Deterministic models: These models estimate the exact value of the

yield or dependent variable. These models also have defined coefficients.

d. Stochastic models: A probability element is attached to each output.

For each set of inputs different outputs are given alongwith probabilities. These models define yield or state of dependent variable at a given rate.

e. Dynamic models: Time is included as a variable. Both dependent and

independent variables are having values which remain constant over a given period of time.

f. Static: Time is not included as a variables. Dependent and independent

variables having values remain constant over a given period of time.

g. Simulation models: Computer models, in general, are a mathematical

representation of a real world system. One of the main goals of crop simulation models is to estimate agricultural production as a function of weather and soil conditions as well as crop management. These models use one or more sets of differential equations, and calculate both rate and state variables over time, normally from planting until harvest maturity or final harvest.

WEATHER DATA FOR MODELING

The national meteorological organizations provide weather data for crop

modeling purposes through observatories across the globe (Sivakumar et al., 2000). In many European countries weather records are available for over 50 years. In crop modeling the use of meteorological data has assumed a paramount importance. There is a need for high precision and accuracy of the data. The data obtained from surface observatories has proved to be excellent. It gained the confidence of the people across the globe for decades. These data are being used daily by people from all walks of life. But, the automated stations are yet to gain popularity in the under developed and developing countries. There is a huge gap between the old time surface observatories and present generation of automated stations with reference to measurement of rainfall. The principles involved in the construction and working of different sensors for measuring rainfall are not commonly followed in automated stations across the globe. As of now, solar radiation, temperature and precipitation are used as inputs in DSSAT. Weather as an Input in Models In crop modeling weather is used as an input. The available data ranges from one second to one month at different sites where crop-modeling work in the world is going on. Different curve fitting techniques, interpolation, extrapolation functions etc., are being followed to use weather data in the model operation. Agrometeorological variables are especially subject to variations in space. It is reported that, as of now, anything beyond daily data proved 242 Crop Growth Modeling and its Applications in Agricultural Meteorology unworthy as they are either over-estimating or under-estimating the yield in simulation. Stochastic weather models can be used as random number generators whose input resembles the weather data to which they have been

fit. These models are convenient and computationally fast, and are useful in a number of applications where the observed climate record is inadequate with respect to length, completeness, or spatial coverage. These applications include simulation of crop growth, development and impacts of climate change. In 1995 JW Jones and Thornton described a procedure to link a third-order Markov Rainfall model to interpolated monthly mean climate surfaces. The constructed surfaces were used to generate daily weather data (rainfall and solar radiation). These are being used for purposes of system characterization and to drive a wide variety of crop and live stock production and ecosystem models. The present generation of crop simulation models particularly DSSAT suit of models have proved their superiority over analytical, statistical, empirical, combination of two or all etc., models so far available. In the earliest crop simulation models only photosynthesis and carbon balance were simulated. Other processes such as vegetative and reproductive development, plant water balance, micronutrients, pest and disease, etc., are not accounted for as the statistical models use correlative approach and make large area yield prediction and only final yield data are correlated with the regional mean weather variables. This approach has slowly been replaced by the present simulation models by these DSSAT models. When many inputs are added in future the models become more complex. The modelers who attempt to obtain input parameters required to add these inputs look at weather as their primary concern. They may have to adjust to the situation where they develop capsules with the scale level at which the input data on weather are available.

Role of Weather in Decision Making

Decisions based solely upon mean climatic data are likely to be of limited

use for at least two reasons. The first is concerned with definition of success and the second with averaging and time scale. In planning and analyzing agricultural systems it is essential not only to consider variability, but also to think of it in terms directly relevant to components of the system. Such analyses may be relatively straightforward probabilistic analyses of particular events, such as the start of cropping seasons in West Africa and India. The principal effects of weather on crop growth and development are well understood and are predictable. Crop simulation models can predict responses to large variations in weather. At every point of application weather data are the most important input. The main goal of most applications of crop models V. Radha Krishna Murthy 243 is to predict commercial out-put (Grain yield, fruits, root, biomass for fodder etc.). In general the management applications of crop simulation models can be defined as: 1) strategic applications (crop models are run prior to planting), 2) practical applications (crop models are run prior to and during crop growth) and 3) forecasting applications (models are run to predict yield both prior to and during crop growth). Crop simulation models are used in USA and in Europe by farmers, private agencies, and policy makers to a greater extent for decision making. Under Indian and African climatic conditions these applications have an excellent role to play. The reasons being the dependence on monsoon rains for all agricultural operations in India and the frequent dry spells and scanty rainfall in crop growing areas in Africa. Once the arrival of monsoon is delayed the policy makers and agricultural scientists in India are under tremendous pressure. They need to go for contingency plans. These models enable to

evaluate alternative management strategies, quickly, effectively and at no/low cost. To account for the interaction of the management scenarios with weather conditions and the risk associated with unpredictable weather, the simulations are conducted for at least 20-30 different weather seasons or weather years. If available, the historical weather data, and if not weather generators are used presently. The assumption is that these historical data will represent the variability of the weather conditions in future. Weather also plays a key role as input for long-term crop rotation and crop sequencing simulations.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CROP MODELING Climate change

Climate change is defined as Any long term substantial deviation from present climate because of variations in weather and climatic elements. The causes of climate change 1. The natural causes like changes in earth revolution, changes in area of continents, variations in solar system, etc. 2. Due to human activities the concentrations of carbon dioxide and certain other harmful atmospheric gases have been increasing. The present level of carbon dioxide is 325 ppm and it is expected to reach 700 ppm by the end of this century, because of the present trend of burning forests, 244 Crop Growth Modeling and its Applications in Agricultural Meteorology grasslands and fossil fuels. Few models predicted an increase in average temperature of 2.3 to 4.6o C and precipitation per day from 10 to 32 per cent in India.

Green house effect

The effect because of which the earth is warmed more than expected due to the presence of atmospheric gases like carbon dioxide, methane and other tropospheric gases. The shortwave radiation can pass through the atmosphere easily, but, the resultant outgoing terrestrial radiation can not escape because atmosphere is opaque to this radiation and this acts to conserve heat which rises temperature.

Effects of climate Change

1. The increased concentration of carbon dioxide and other green house gases are expected to increase the temperature of earth. 2. Crop production is highly dependent on variation in weather and therefore any change in global climate will have major effects on crop yields and productivity. 3. Elevated temperature and carbon dioxide affects the biological processes like respiration, photosynthesis, plant growth, reproduction, water use etc. In case of rice increased carbon dioxide levels results in larger number of tillers, greater biomass and grain yield. Similarly, in groundnut increased carbon dioxide levels results in greater biomass and pod yields. 4. However, in tropics and sub-tropics the possible increase in temperatures may offset the beneficial effects of carbon dioxide and results in significant yield losses and water requirements. Proper understanding of the effects of climate change helps scientists to guide farmers to make crop management decisions such as selection of crops, cultivars, sowing dates and irrigation scheduling to minimize the risks.

Role of Climate Change in Crop Modeling

In recent years there has been a growing concern that changes in climate will lead to significant damage to both market and non-market sectors. The climate change will have a negative effect in many countries. But farmers V. Radha Krishna Murthy 245 adaptation to climate change-through changes in farming practices, cropping patterns, and use of new technologies will help to ease the impact. The variability of our climate and especially the associated weather extremes is currently one of the concerns of the scientific as well as general community. The application of crop models to study the potential impact of climate change and climate variability provides a direct link between models, agrometeorology and the concerns of the society. Tables 2 and 3 present the results of sensitivity analysis for different climate change scenarios for peanut in Hyderabad, India. As climate change deals with future issues, the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and crop simulation models proves a more scientific approach to study the impact of climate change on agricultural production and world food security compared to surveys. Cropgro (DSSAT) is one of the first packages that modified weather simulation generators/or introduced a package to evaluate the performance of models for climate change situations. Irrespective of the limitations of GCMs it would be in the larger interest of farming community of the world that these DSSAT modelers look at GCMs for more accurate and acceptable weather generators for use in models. This will help in finding solutions to crop production under climate changes conditions, especially in underdeveloped and developing countries.

23 WHEAT CROP MODEL BASED ON WATER

BALANCE FOR AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CROP MONITORING

Zahid Rafi & Rehan Ahmad

Abstract:
In this study effort has been made to develop a simple crop model based on water balance for crop monitoring. The main distinctive features of the model are, use of soil moisture at 30 cm depth, decadal water assessment for the wheat crop, an index value in percentage for each decade and for the whole season, which expressed the performance of the crop. The maximum cumulative seasonal index value 100 is apportioned equally into different decade required by the crop to complete its growth. Different stages are evaluated on the basis of water deficit/surplus experienced by the crop. The data used is

on the basis of experiments conducted on wheat crop in the premises of the Barani University, Rawalpindi(33N, 73E), in research farms. The correlation exhibited between final yield and soil moisture index is about 98%, which is considered to be excellent value. The experiments were conducted from 1999 to 2004. The years 1999-2000, and 2000-2001 were found generally to be dry and growth of the crop faced water stress conditions. No sufficient moisture was available during all decades and drought stress occurred at vegetative, flowering and grain filling stages. This model is useful in rain fed areas and can give significant result.

Introduction:
Over the last thirty years important progress has been made in the establishment of the crop weather model in the world. In one way or another way, these models are intended to relate the effect of meteorological parameters e.g. temperature, pressure, rain, relative humidity etc to crop yield and production. A big drawback of statistical model is that

often they are location specific and they give good results in average or near average conditions. It does not work properly during extreme weather conditions. Crop yield is the integrated effect of a number of physical and physiological processes that occur during the crop-growing period. These processes are influenced by the characteristics of the crop, weather, soil and time management factors. Several models have been developed and categorized (Sirotenko, 1994). Models in various fields like breeding, soil science, plant physiology, fertilizer response, insect damage and regional crop planning are used. A simplified model useful for operational purposes and able to asses the crop at any stage of the growth in rain fed areas of the North Punjab working on agro-meteorological data and crop data is always desired.

Pakistan Meteorological Department Pakistan Journal of Meteorology Vol. 2: Issue 3: (March 2005)

24 Objectives: The rain fed areas of Northern Punjab have been relatively neglected by the research efforts. Wheat is planted on more than 90% of cropped areas in Rabi season but average yields at 1.7t/hac are well below their potential. There is a need for research in barani areas of Pakistan to diagnose factors limiting productivity and to develop recommendations that can be adopted by formers to improve final yield. Importance of Barani Areas: Barani or rain fed areas make a significant contribution to agricultural production in Pakistan. Out of total crop areas of twenty million hectors about 5 million hectors (25%) are rain fed lands with no irrigation. In Punjab 20% of the cropped areas is rain fed (PARC/CIMMYT paper 90-2). The main soil in Barani areas have been developed from transported material such as alluvium and river alluvium. They are

generally medium textured with a fair proportion of clay soils. Crucial factor in Barani areas wheat production is moisture conservation (Rain harvesting technique may be applied). Weed control is also important when there is sufficient rain in early crop stages. Climatic variations in Research Area: Rainfall is, of course, the critical factor for crop production; there is substantial year-to-year variation in rainfall. The variability in both rainfall and crop yields is higher for Rabi season (Nov- Apr) than for the Kharif season (sheikh et al 1988). The years 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 were the best with regard to rainfall. The rainfall was evenly distributed throughout the crop season. The years 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 Rabi seasons were generally poor in terms of rain fall for wheat production.

Meteorological Observations:

Meteorological observations were recorded at 0800,1400 and 1700 (PST) with daily mean temperature(C), relative humidity (%), rain fall (mm) and also the soil moisture at the depths of 5cm, 10cm, 20cm, 50cm,and 100cm were also observed. In addition to these pan evaporation (mm), dew duration (hour & minute), rainfall intensity (mm/hour), duration of bright sun shine (hour) and solar energy (cal/cm2/day) were also recorded at Regional Agro meteorological center Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

Research Farms:
This center started agro meteorological observations from 1988 in experimental farms of Barani Agricultural University Rawalpindi. Since then the activity is going on. The study was conducted on the experimental farms about 300m west of meteorological observatory. Field under observation was divided into four equal plots and overall ten plants were selected from each plot for phonological

observation. These plants were tagged along a row in each plot. Phonological study was continued till harvesting. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology Vol. 2: Issue 3: (March 2005) 25

Phenological Observations:
The following phases of crop were observed; 1. Emergence 2. Third Leaf 3. Tillering 4. Shooting 5. Heading 6. Flowering 7. Milk Maturity 8. Wax Maturity 9. Full Maturity 10. Harvesting These phases were observed regularly almost three or four times in a week and in case of 50% occurrence of phase of selected plants, it was considered to be in phase

and 75% occurrence was considered to be completion of the phase. Soil moisture sample were taken from each plots after about every ten days at 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 70, 90 and 110 cm depths. The soil moisture at 30cm depth is a critical stage for crop growth. Hence famous gravimetric method was employed in the calculation of soil moisture. This method is laborious but highly reliable. Details of the model: This method is based on the cumulative phenological duration crop water balance, which gives an index expressing the degree of water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) (Reynold, C.A., 1998). Different components of water balance have been used. In this model soil moisture index is taken from the real data and it is not necessarally100% at the time of sowing. The water balance is the difference between precipitation received by the crop and water lost by the crop and soil. The water retained by the soil and available to the crop is also taken into account in the calculation. The

calculation of the water balance is carried out on special form (FAO Agro meteorological rain fed crop monitoring)

Soil Moisture:
The soil moisture in percentage was calculated at the depth of 30cm by using gravimetric method. The Number of rainy days (da) The number of rainy days to give an idea of the distribution of rainfall during each phenological stage. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology Vol. 2: Issue 3: (March 2005) 26 Evapotranspiration (ETo) Climatologically records of temperature, vapors pressure, relative humidity, Sunshine duration and wind speed were used for the calculation of evapotranspiration on the daily basis. Crop Coefficient (Kc) To compute crop water requirement during each phenological stage, crop coefficient

suitable to the crop stage need to be selected. For initial growth stage it is 0.3-0.4 and progressively reaches to 1.0-1.2(max) at flowering stages including roughly 20 days before and after flowering. The water requirements of the crop progressively recorded and crop coefficient decreased from 1.0-1.2 to about 0.4-0.5 at maturity stage.

Crop Water Requirement (WR)

The crop water requirement is computed by multiplying total value of ETO for each phenological stage with Kc.To calculate the total water requirements of the season from its beginning by summing up the successive water requirements of each crop stage.

Water Available (Pa-WR)

If (Pa-WR) is positive, it means sufficient moisture is available to the crop during that decade and if it is found negative the crop is considered to be under water stress

during that decade. Water Reserves in the Soil (Rs) This term expresses the quantity of water existing within the rooting zone of the crop at a given stage, which can be readily utilized by the crop. The maximum quantity of useful water, which may be retained in the soil for a given crop, is soil water retention capacity. Surplus and Deficit (S&D): The water, more than storage in the soil appears as surplus in the S/D column. If the calculation comes to be negative figure, this was shown by minus sign in S/D column. Deficit refers to any quantity of water below the zero level of water retention capacity of the soil, called permanent wilting point (PWP). The notion of water deficit is very important for the calculation of water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI). Cumulative Index (Is):

Thus considering surpluses and deficits, the actual ten days contribution were computed and added to get total cumulative seasonal value (Is) for the crop considered. The index (Is) thus expresses the extent to which the water regimes are favorable and therefore also indicates the performance of the crop in a season. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology Vol. 2: Issue 3: (March 2005) 27 Seasonal Water Requirement (WR): The comparison of soil moisture at 30 cm depth and water requirement calculated from the ETO (s) and crop coefficient (Kc) for each ten days is shown in figures 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. In these figures the series 1 indicates the water requirement and series 2 shows actual water available to the crop during each decade. The crop goes to deficit in the month of March and April, which affect the final yield. If at this stage crop is irrigated by some artificial means the final yield will be enhanced. Yield Prediction:

For wheat, computation of cumulative index (Is) for five seasons (1999 to 2004) with corresponding yields at different sowing dates, it is possible to develop a relationship between Is and yield (Y). This relationship forms a simple model capable of predicting yield on the basis of Is value accumulated in a season. The new crop water balance model proposed would be tested on the basis of shifting sowing date. Five sowing dates were 06Nov, 20 Nov, 30 Oct, 05 Nov, 05 Nov and crops were harvested after full maturity on 4 May, 30 April, 20 April, 08 May and 26 April respectively. The yields (Y) recorded for these dates were 2000,2025,2400,2694 and 2875 Kg/hac respectively. The soils of Rawalpindi (33N, 73E) has clay and its water holding capacity is 32%(mm). The cumulative index (Is) five different sowing dates for wheat along with dates of harvesting, yields are given in table-1.

The wheat crop undergoes stress in the first decade of March during the seasons 1999-2000 and 2000-2001, shown in the figures 2&3. This is the period of flowering and grains forming. The years 2001-02 and 2003-04, figures 4 &6, shows no stress during the whole growth period. The crop observed a little bit stress during the year 2002-03, figure 5, in last decade of March, which did not affect the final yield. The reduction in the yield is being due to the water stress. The crop faces water stress during the flowering and grain filling stages. The graphical representation between cumulative index (Is) for five different sowing dates of wheat and corresponding yield (Kg/hac) is exhibited in figure-1, which is a straight line. Table-1: Seasonal index (Is) according to new model for five different date of sowing of wheat with harvesting dates and yield No Date of sowing and harvesting

Cumulative index (Is) Yield (Kg/ha) 1 06Nov-04May 50 2000 2 20Nov-30April 47 2025 3 30Oct-20April 60 2400 4 05Nov-08May 69 2694 5 05Nov-26April 76 2875

Pakistan Journal of Meteorology Vol. 2: Issue 3: (March 2005) 28 Fig1. The linear relation between Yield y = 31.598x + 490.25 R2 = 0.9863 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Index (Is) &

2500 3000 3500 0 20406080 Index (Is) Yield (Kg/ha) Series1 Linear (Series1)

Conclusion: The crop water balance at 30 cm depth with various components was developed. It exhibited excellent correlation which is r = 0.99 between the yield (Y) and the seasonal index (Is). R2 =0.986 the regression equation between the Is and yield is Y= 490.25+31.59Is, can be used to predict season crop while Is value can be used to exhibit crop performance or crop condition in the season. This model was tested with previous data and it gives results satisfactorily.