Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
M. Munir Sheikh, Naeem Manzoor, Muhammad Adnan, Javeria Ashraf Arshad M. Khan
June 2009
Published by: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex Quaid-i-Azam University Campus P.O. Box 3022 Islamabad-44000 Pakistan
ISBN: 978-969-9395-04-8
@GCISC
Copyright. This Report, or any part of it, may not be used for resale or any other commercial or gainful purpose without prior permission of Global Change Impact studies Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan. For educational or non-profit use, however, any part of the Report may be reproduced with appropriate acknowledgement.
This Report may be cited as follows: Sheikh, M.M., N. Manzoor, M. Adnan, 1. Ashraf and Arshad M. Khan, (2009), Climate Profile and Past Climate Changes in Pakistan, GCISC-RR-Ol, Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), Islamabad, Pakistan.
FOREWORD
Global change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC ) was established in 2002 as a dedicated research centre for climate change and other global change related studies , at the initiative of Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, NI, HI, Sf, thc then pecial Advisor to the Chief Executive of Pakistan. The entre ha since been engaged in research on past and projected climate change in different sub regions of Pakistan' corresponding impacts on the country's key sectors; in particular, Water and Agriculture' and adaptation m asurcs to counter the negative impacts.
The work described in this report was carried out at GCISC and 'was supported in part by APN (Asia Pacific etwork for Global hange Research), Kobe, Japan, through it CAPaBLE Programme under a 3-year capacity enhancement cum research Project titled "Enhancement of National Capacities in the Application of Simulation Models for the Assessment of Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources, and Food and Agricultural Production", awarded to GClSC in 2003 in collaboration with Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
It is hoped that the report will provide us ful information to national planners and policy rnakcrs as well as to academic and research organizations in the country on issues related to impacts of climate change on Pakistan. The keen interest and support by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Advisor (S & T) to the Planning Commission and useful technical advice by Dr. Amir Muhammed Rector, National University for Computer and Emerging Sciences and Member, Scientific Planning Group, APN, throughout tile course of this is work arc gratefully acknowledged.
PREFACE
The earth's climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era (1860) (IPCC, 2001). There is now a new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributed to human activities. The concentration of the main greenhouse gas, 02, which stood at a level of 280 ppm for the period 1000-1750, increased to 379 ppm in 2005 (35% increase). The global surface temperature increased during the 20th century by 0.6 while the 100 year linear trend increased to 0.74C during 1906-2005. The second half of the last century saw the temperature changes as 0.128 C per decade from 1955-2005 and 0.177 C per decade from 1980-2005 with 1990s a the warmest decade in. the instrumental record since 1860 (TPCC AR4 2007).
Such a situation called for the past climate changes in Pakistan to be assessed using the mo. t appropriate statistical techniques to serve as the baseline patterns to help get an insight into how vulnerable or resilient arc different sectors. For this the metrological data of some 54 stations for the period 1951-2000 (or for the period data is available) are analyzed as de. cribed in this report. The details of different chapters are as follows: Chapter 1 is on the General Climate Profile. Pertinent geographic, physiographic and climatic details of the country are included in thi chapter. Different climate zones and' their details hill torrents in the country and the demographic and agrarian aspects arc further added in this chapter. Chapter 2 on the Climate Data Monitoring System in Pakistan. The facilities available in this connection with Pakistan Meteorological (PMD) and the type of data used in this report are outlined in this chapter. Chapter 3 is on the Temperature Regime over Paki tan. The chapter, studded with necessary tables and figures, highlights the spatial temperature distribution over the country and in different climatic zones. This is based on the 30-year normal data for the period 1961-1990 and the monthly temperature data for the period 1951-2000 or for the period data is actually available. Chapter 4 is on the Rainfall Distribution over Pakistan and contains details almost in line with the details given for temperature. Chapter 5 is on the Past Climate Changes in Paki tan. Changes using the trend analysis arc worked out for the climate parameters of Temperature (Mean, Maximum and Minimum) and Precipitation On annual and sea. onal basis for all the stations and for different zone. These changes are presented in the contour and map form and results arc extracted. The chapter also includes the extreme trend analysis carried out on monthly basis on temperature and precipitation and number of stations showing increasing or decreasing trend for each zone. Chapter 6 is on the Climate Variability and Change in the Mountainous North of Pakistan. The region comprises parts of Karakoram, Hindukush and Himalayan Ranges. Chapter 7 is on the Analysis of Driest Periods and Drought Vulnerable Areas in Pakistan. Driest periods based on the 30-ycar normal period (1961-90) and their percentages are worked out for each station and for each season. Areas remaining dry for more than 50% of the time arc treated as drought vulnerable areas. The vulnerable areas in different part. in different
II
seasons are then discussed in the context of likely rainfall during the subsequent seasons. Chapter 8, the last chapter, is on the ENSO and NAO influences over the Weather of Pakistan. The natural forcing phenomena like El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) developing occasionally in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean respectively have been studied in the context of their influence 0ver the weather of Pakistan by analyzing the historical data of rainfall for the period 1951-2000 supplemented by the re-analysis CEP pressure and RU TS 2.0 precipitation data.
List of Acronyms
Most of the Acronyms and abbreviation, wherevcr they appear in text, are defined.
IX
Chapter 1
(NWFP) indh and Balochistan. In addition, some areas are administered directly by the federal
Government, as are the high altitude Northern Areas A), the tribal areas along the border with A fghanistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir CAlK). Physically it is the vast valley of mighty Indus River
and its tributaries, running through the whole country as its bloodlines. Northern Pakistan inherits one
of the highest lands of the world. The three great mountain range: Himalaya, Karakorams and the Hindukush meet in a very complex system of mountains, separated by narrow gorges of the rivers. South of the northern highlands and west of the Indus River plain are the Safcd Koh Range along the Afghanistan border and the Sulaiman Range and Kirthar Range, which define the western extent of the province of indh and reach almost to the southern coast. The lower reaches are far more arid than those in the north, and they branch into ranges that run generally to the outhwest across the province of Balochistan. Several large passes cut the ranges along the border with Afghanistan. Among them are the KJ10jak Pass, about eighty kilometers northwe. t of Quetta in Balochistan: the Khyber Pas s, forty kilometers west of Peshawar leading to Kabul in Afghanistan; and the Baroghil Pas: in. the far north, providing access to the Wakhan Corridor. r css than a one-fifth of Pakistan's laud area ha the potential for intensive agricultural usc. r early all of the arable land i actively cultivated but outputs arc Jow by world standards.
Some areas below 300 N also constitute the desert areas. In the sub-tropic: there is a relatively continuous series of deserts extending from the Arabian Desert, which abuts the Sahara, to the Thar Desert of Pakistan. and India. The Thar Desert span the border betwc n India and Pakistan, with the two countries sometimes applying local names to their parts of the Thar. I.n Pakistan, the south em part
is
known as Sindh desert and the northern part is known as Cholistan Desert. A small area to the northwest of the 1 har in Pakistan is known
as Thai Desert. This desert is a transition zone between precipitation producing mechanism. The semi-permanent thermal low over the deserts in the pre-monsoon period con titutes among other a predictor for the monsoon rains from Arabian Sea in Pakistan. 1. Some of the main physiographic features of Pakistan are shown in Fig. 1.1
ourcc: http://www.magazinc.com.[lk/travelfPakigClIl/maps!
The index (I) follows the criteria: 31 < 1 a Humid, 16 < J < 31 a Semi arid, 10 < I as arid and I < 10 as Hyper arid.
3. 2.
water from the surface through the process of evaporation and tran piration assuming no control over water supply. Potential Evapotranspiration requires energy for the evaporation process and major
36
3-4
32
30
Z8
26
LEGEND
31<1
62
64
66
S8
70
The all Pakistan Monsoon Season in the country is from June to September and has it rainfall sources both from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The mon oon rains from the Arabian Sea commenc earlier anytime during June wherea the onset of the monsoon season from the Bay
or Bengal is July 1 on the average. The area weighted precipitation during the men oon eason
stand around 55% of the total annual rainfall over Pakistan.
Winter (December to March) Region above 30 generally receive winter rains due to the pas ing western disturbances. These disturbance and other circulation system, mostly active in the winter and in the transition period of the pre-monsoon, arc the main sources of precipitation over the western part . In the far north, the western disturbances are active more or less throughout the year. Greater Himalayan region above 35N receives the winter precipitation mostly in the form of now and ice. The snow and glacier melt keeps the Indus Basin River (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) perennial throughout the year. The area weighted precipitation during the season stands around 30% of the total rainfall over Paki tan.
Pre-monsoon ( April-May) The period pril to May and even part of June or at times whole of June is extremely hot and dry. In these months, a semi-permanent thermal low develops over parts of Balochistan province and adjoining parts of Sindh and outhern Punjab which plays a vital role during the monsoon season in facilitating the flow of maritime air masses from the Arabian Sea to flow uninterrupted to the sub-montane regions or to other parts of the country depending upon the prevalent weather conditions. The area weighted rainfall during this ea 'on is around 12% of the total annual rainfall. Post-monsoon (October- Novcmber) The season is usually very dry and constitutes the transition zone between the monsoon and winter rainfall seasons. The rainfall at the most remains around 4% of the total area weighted rainfall of Pakistan.
4.
Regions Zone I(a): Greater Himalayas (Winter dominated) Zone I(b): Sub-montane region and Monsoon dominated Zone II: Western Highlands Zone 11I: Central & Southern Punjab Zone IV: Lower Indu Plains Zone V(a) : Balochistan Plateau (Northern) (Sulaiman & Kirthar Ranges) Zone V(b): Balochistan Plateau I (Western) Zone VI: Coastal Belt
harif
Risalnur
Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Khanpur, Mianwali, Multan, Raffiquc, Sargodha Chhor, Hyderabad, Jacobabad, Nawabshah, Padidan, Rohri Barkhan Kalat, Khuzdar, Lasbela, Quetta Sibbi, Zhob Dalbandin, okkundi, Panjgur
;""
Pakistan has more glaciers than any other land outside the 01tl1 and South Poles. Paki tan's glacial area covers some 13,680 sq. km. which reprc sents an average of 13 per cent of mountain region of the upper Indu Ba in. Paki tan's glaciers can rightly claim to posse the greatest rnass and collection of glaciated pace on the face of earth. III fact, in the lap of the Karakoram of Pakistan, alone there are glaciers whose total area would add up to above 6,160 sq. km. To put it more precisely, as high as 37 per cent of the Karakoram area is under its glaciers against Himalayas' 17 per cent and European Alps' 22 per cent. The Karakorarns have one more claim to proclaim; its southern flank (east and west of the enormous Biafo glacier) has a concentration of glaciers which works out to 59 per cent of its area
Bes ides these peaks and glacier the region abound in large lakes the green valley, numerou treams and rivulets, fore ts of pine and junipers, and a vast variety of fauna and flora. South of the high mountains the ranees lose their height gradually and ettle down
finaJly In the Margalla Hill (2,000-3 000 ft) in the vicinity of Islamsbad Different mountain ranges in orthern PakIstan are shown ln Plg. 1.4.
5.
Skaram, is 15,620 It high. South of Koh-e-Sufaid are the} chat and Waziristan hills (5,000 ft.) which are traversed by the Kurrum and Tochi rivers and are bounded on south by Gomal River. South of the ornal River, run the Sulaiman Mountains for a di tance of about 483 km in a north-south direction. Takht-e-Sulaiman is the highest peak in this zone with top at 11,295 ft (3 423 meters). The region lies on the path of passing western disturbances carrying moisture laden winds from the Mediterranean ea and give the region a due share of their moisture in winter.
1.5.4 Zone III: The Punjab Plains (Central and Southern Punjab)
The Punjab plains also termed as pper Indus Plain comprise mai.nly the province of Punjab. The region comprises the fertile land of river Indus and its five tributaries viz. Jhclum Chcnab, Ravi Sutlej and Beas. A belt of thick and fertile alluvium ha been formed by the Indus Basin rivers. Almost whole of the Province of Punjab is covered by these alluvial deposits in a contiguous strip. These flood plains are characterized by flat land Iorrn criss-cro ed by a network of irrigation canals. The area is gently sloping from orth-East to South-We t with levations of about 984 ft (300 Ill) in the extreme north to about 290 ft (8 rn) in its extreme .outh. The Potohar Upland commonly called the Potohar Plateau, lies to the south of northern mountains and is flanked in the we t by River Indus and in the east by River Jhelum. In this plateau, there are a few outlying spurs of Salt Range in the outh, and those of Khair Murad and Kala Chitta ranges in the north. The importance of the Sal Range lies in the large deposits of pure alt at Khewra and Kalabagh and the large seams of coal at Dandot and Makerwal.
..
6.
ARABIA Sf A
Source:
Master Feasibility Srudies for Flood Management of Hill-Torrents of Pakistan. NESPAK, November
1998
10
Area Province
Population (2005)
Population Density 1
Sq. Km
Pakistan
Sq.Km
193
100.0
9.4 25.8 17.7 43.6 3.4 0.1
153,450
20,930 84,810 35,260 7,820 3,550 1,080
NWFP
Punjab Sindh
Balochistan
281
413 250 23 130 1192
FATA*
Islamabad
Punjab, NWFP and Sindh are the most thickly populated provinces. The province of Balochistan, though constitutes around 44 % of the total area of Pakistan, has the lowest population density.
11
12
Crops Wheat Rice Bajra Jowar Maize Barely Gram Sugarcane * Rapeseed, Mustard & Canola Cotton Potatoes * Onion* Chillies Tobacco
2002-03 2,388 2,013 542 598 1,856 926 701 47.3 8361 622 16.8 13.2 1,737 1,872
2003-04 2,373 1,970 508 606 2,003 961 622 49.7 850 572 17.6 13.3 1,714 1,870
2004-05 2,586 1,994 563 604 2,848 989 793 48.9 840 760 18.1 13.8 1,837 1,989
2005-06 2,519 2,116 501 602 2,985 978 466 49.2 797 714 13.3 13.8 1,892 2,018
2006-07 2,716 2,107 472 616 3,036 989 797 53.2 831 711 19.4 13.9 1,489 2,020
13
Chapter 2
14
7.
Network of Meteorological Stations in Pakistan
15
9. 8.
radiation is also recorded at six stations namely, Peshawar, Islamabad, Lahore, Multan, Quetta and Karachi. The network of solar radiation stations falls within the technical control of
Geophysical
Centre, Quetta.
2.6.1 1931-1960
The publication comprises the normals (i.e. means and extremes) for the period 1931-1960 for 61 Meteorological stations distributed throughout the country. Practically these are spread over 54 sites as some sites has more than one station. The data is scanty and is characterized by a number of missing values.
2.6.2 1961-1990
Eighteen stations were closed during the period 1931-60 and some fifteen new stations were added during the period 1961-90. Quality and quantity of data, when compared to the 1931-60 17
normal period, is much better. Frequency of missing value' is less. The list of the network stations during J
2.6.3 1971-2000
This is the updated version of the 30-year normal data of 1961-90 where the first lOyear data is replaced by (he last Iu-years data of 1991 to 2000. Stations are the same.
installation po sible, The radar network serves as the only mainstay for the real time observation of weather sy tems and quantification of the rainfall mea urements in the se catchments for the purpose of weather and flood forecasting. PMD has established a network of four 5.7 em wavelength weather radars at Islamabad, D.l. Khan, Rahim Yar Khan and Karachi. 18
All these four radars are inter-connected through fibre optic and data is communicated to all airports and weather forecasting centres on five to thirty minutes intervals. In addition, three weather radars one of 5.7 em wavelength and the other two of 10 em wavelength are located rc pectivcly at Sialkot, Lahore and angla (Recently installed in 2008) to measure quantitatively the rainfall in the upper catchments of rivers up to Jhelurn. TIle data is used mainly for flood forecasting at
the rim stations of the rivers and for their downstream routing. The radar data i also helpful in the forecasting of urban storm flooding to help reduce their adverse effect in the cities. The weather radar
Sourcc: Pakistan Meteorological Depertmenr Fig. 2.3: The Weather Radar Network in Pakistan
19
project titled: "Wind Power Potential Survey in Pakistan". More than two years wind data has been collected and analyzed at about 45 locations along the Sindh-Balochistan Coast. Detailed reports containing data collected at these stations and analysis are available in the published form. Parameters recorded at these stations include wind speed at 10 and 30 meter heights and extrapolated wind speed at 50 meter height. As a second phase of the project sorn 42 wind mapping stations have been installed in the northern Pakistan, in particular ill the northern mountainous areas since early 2007. The network of wind-mapping stations is hown in Figs. 2.4 2.5 & 2.6.
Arabian Sea
Arabian Sea
b7
11.
21
Fig. 2.6: Wind-mapping stations in orthern Pakistan The stations located along Balochistan and Sindh Coasts include: Aghore, Basol, Bella, Gaddani Gawadar Hoshab Hub Chowki, Jiwani, Liari, Makela, Managi Mand, asirabad, Nelunt, Ormara, OthaJ, Pasni, Phore, Pishukhan Ramra Turnp Turbat Winder Badin Baghan, Chuhar, Jarnali, Gharo, Golarchi Hawks Bay, Hyderabad, Jati,
22
Kadhan, Karachi, Kati Bandar, Matli Mirpur Sakro, Nooriabad Sajawal, Shah Bandar Talhar, Thanu Bula Khan. The stations located in the orthem areas of the country include: Astore, Aliabad (Hunza), Ayune, Bahrain, Bamborait (Kalash), Barapayan (Khaplu), Besharn Qila Bunji, Chila Chitral city, Danakool Chakcsir, Dargai, Dir, Drosh Fatehpur (Madyan Road), Garam Chashma (Chitral), GilGJt, Gupis, Kaghozi ( hitral), Kalam Khawazakhaila (Swat) Khudabad (Sost) Khungi payan (Dir), Lempiapatian Sheed (AJK) , Lorrarniana (Jhyber Agency), Malamjabba Mastuj, Mirkhani (Chitral), oorti Pabari, Nizampur (Nowshchra) Passu (Hunza), Pedar, Bagh (AJK), Reshan (Chitral), Ramatkoore, Mitai (Mohmand Agency) Sermik (Skardu) Shaghore (Chitral), Shahida Sir Batarra (Buneer), Shigar ( orthem Area), Tarbela (Haripur), arsak (peshawar).
Under this project a number of data acquisition equipments are being installed in different parts of the country. These include 50 Automatic Weather Stations, 500 rain gauge stations and 20 soil moisture and under ground water level monitoring probes. Drought monitoring network is shown in Fig. 2.7.
23
12.
Sourcc: Pakistan Meteorological Department
24
Chapter 3
Temperature thus holds a key position in the climatic studies and requires, as a fir t step, the drawl of a picture for the spatial distribution of temperature over the country.
25
Pakistan has a latitudinal extension from 24 to 37C. On June 21 or 22 the vertical sun rays strike 23.5 (Tropic of Cancer), June 21 or 22 the surnrner solstice is thus the first official day of summer in Pakistan. June and Ju1y thus constitute the warmest months ov er Pakistan. On the other hand Dec 21 or 22 is the first official day of winter at the Tropic of Cancer and the month of January constitute the coldest month over Pakistan Monthly temperature values in the bar [ann for the two periods 1961-) 990 and 1951-2000 are shown in Figures 3.1 to 3.48 along with their temperature values. Figs. 3.3 to 3.48 are placed in Appendix III.
26
3.2.2 Station-wise
Using the 30-year normal value of 1961-90, the temperature (mean maximum and minimum) value on annual and seasonal bar are shown in (he form of bar graph in Fig . 3.49 to 3.57 along with their tabulated values in Tables 3.1 to 3.9. Table 3.1
Fig. 3.49
27
Table 3.2
13.
Fig. 3.50
Table 3.3
Fig. 3.51
28
Table 3.4
14.
Fig. 3.52
Table 3.5
Fig. 3.53
29
30
3.2.3 Conclusions
Temperature (mean, maximum & minimum) are highest in the southern parts of the country in the Sindh Province and the adjoining areas of Balochistan and outhern Punjab. west temperatures usually center around Astore in the Greater Himalayan region in both the season .
ean maximum monsoon temperature are a high as 425.C around Sibbi and mean minimum winter temperatures are as Iow as -4.6C around A lore.
32
33
3.3.1
Extreme Temperatures (Maximum & Minimum) during 1961 ~90 are shown graphically in Figs. 3.59 and 3.60
1. 2.
The annual temperature ranges vary from about 12 to 27C. The annual range of temperature is minimum in the coastal areas along the Arabian Sea and maximum in the mountainous north in the Greater Himalayan and in the desert regions.
34
3. 4.
The extreme minimum temperature went a low as -21C at Astor on Feb 9, 1974. 52C is the highest maximum temperature recorded at Sibbi on 12 June, 1979. 53C. however, remains as the highest maximum temperature recorded at Jacobabad on 12 June, 1919.
35
34
32
30
28
26
24
35
15.
Fig. 3.62: Mean Monsoon Temperature in C (1951-2000)
36
36
32
30
28
26
24
17. 16.
6 2
6 4
8 6
6 8
7 0
7 2
7 4
7 6
36
3 4
32
3 o
28
6 2
6 4
6 6
6tl
7 0
7d
37
Table 3.11: Summary of Zone-wise Annual & easonal Mean Temperature (C)
(1951-2000)
Winter Average
Apr-
Oct-Nov Average
Average Average
May Average
5.3
17.2
12.9
Greater Himalayas Zone-l(b) Sub-montane Region and monsoon dominated Zone-II Western Highlands Zone-III Central and Southern Punjab Zone-IV Lower Indus Plain Zone V(a) : Balochi. tan Plateau (Northern) (Sulairnan & Kirthar Ranges) Zone V(b): Balochistan Plateau (Western)
Zone-VI
20.1
27.4
11.8
23.5
18.4
18.6
19.9 25.8
38
18.
19.
6,2
6 4
6 6
6 8
70
72
74
7 6
36
34
32
30
28
2 ~ 62
6 6
68
7 0
1 2
7 4
7 6
39
21. 20.
22.
5 6
3 2
30
28
2 6
2 4
6 2
66
6 8
70
72
71t .
7 6
Table 3.12: Summary of Zone-wi e Annual & Seasonal Mean Maximum Temperature C)
(1951-2000) Annual Region Zone-l(a) Greater Himalaya Zone-l(b) Sub-montane Region and monsoon dominated Zone-II 'Western Highlands Zone-III Central and Southern Punjab Zone-IV Lower Indus Plains Zone-V (a) : Balochistan Plateau ( Northern) (Sulaiman & Average 21.7
Monsoon
Average 32.4
AprMay
Oct-Nov Average
Averaze
23.8 20.4
26.4 27.2
33.1 35.0
I
18.0 18.1
30.5 30.8
25.9 26.1
32.2 34.6
38.7 39.3
23.5 27.3
37.5 40.7
31.2 33.8
32.4
Kirthar Ranees)
Zone V(b): Balochistan Plateau
Western)
Zone-VI Coastal Belt
35.1
35.3
23.
36
3 2
30
2 0
2 6
2 4
42
3 6
34
3 2
30
2 8
26
24
3 6
3 4
3 2
3 0
2 8
26
24
6 2
6 4
6 6
6 8
70
72
74
76
43
Table 3.13: Summary of Zone-wi e Annual & Seasonal Mean Minimum Temperature (C) (1951-2000)
Annual Region Average Zone-lea) Greater Himalaya Zone-l(b) Sub-montane Region and monsoon dominated Zone-II Wcstern Highlands Zone-III Central and Southern Punjab Zone-IV Lower Indus Plain Zone V(a) : Balochistan Plateau Northem) (Sulaiman & Kirthar Ranges) Zone V(b): Balochistan Plateau (Western) Zone- VI Coastal Belt 8.6
Apl'.:May Oct--Nov
Average Average
5.6
10.6
16.6
21.6
23.2 26.8 26.7
5.5
16.6
9.9 11.0 18.9
13.3
15.0
20.4
3.5 Conclusions
The normal picture drawn from the the tabular value and grapb show at the lower Indus plains, the Sindh Province and adjoining Southem Punjab and coastal areas are the warmest and temperature' remain around 25C and above during different seasons except during winter when these are usually below 20C. Contrary to the above, stations in the orthern Mountain region show mueh lower temperatures in all the seasons except during the monsoon period when these exceed 25C. The temperature range in the e two extremes is around 18C. Average temperatures during the men oon period remain above 25C in all the zones with highest in the Lower Indus Plain.
45
Chapter 4
September). The monsoonal systems penetrate the country either from the Arabian Sea or from the Bay of Bengal. The monsoonal current developing as tropical depressions in the Bay of Bengal, moving ill a west, northwesterly direction across the Gangetic Plains over India, at times reach the Indus Plains. By the time they reach there, their intensity decreases considerably. However, at times, these depressions juxtapose with the strong we stern disturbances or get accentuated due the outhwesterly currents from the Arabian Sea and cause heavy rain in the .ubmontane region' and other part of the country depending upon the synoptic conditions. Similarly monsoon ystcms/depressions are facilitated to flow uninterrupted to the submontane region by the strong pres: tire gradient between the sea and the adjoining continental area. A semi permanent thermal low develop over .ome parts of Baloehi tan and adjoining Sindh and southern Punjab during the summer months (Apr-Jun) which provide the necessary pressure gradient force between the Arabian sea and these adjoining land masses. Winter rain are brought by the western di turbance and while crossing the country as primary waves/disturbances within the latitude 30-60 shed out their moisture in the upper parts of the country. At limes, they develop their secondarie and penetrate deep into lower latitudes and get accentuated by the moi ture from the Arabian Sea and bring rains in most parts of the country. The rainfall distribution pattern are discus .ed in the subsequent paragraph. :
46
4.2 Station-wise Monthly Precipibltion Patterns (1961-90 & 1951-2000) Monthly values of total precipitation for the 30-year normal period 1961-90 and for the period 1951-2000 (or for the period data is available) are plotted as bar graphs and shown in Figs. 4.1 to 4.48. Figures 4.3-4.48 are placed in Appendix. The rainfall is maximum either in the monsoon (June to Septernber) or in the winter season (December to March) depending upon the location. November seen to be the month of minimum precipitation allover Pakistan. October then comes next. Winter ea on u sually extend up to April or even up to May in the rnountainou: north particularly in the Greater Himalayan region above 35N. The weighted monsoon (June to September) precipitation over the country, as a whole, is almost twice as high as the winter (December to March) precipitation. However, in the Punjab Province, the upper part of which i mostly mon oon dominated, the weighted monsoon ram compared to winter rain' are around three times higher.
Months
Jan
Pakistan
17.0 22.5 31.0 19.7 13.2 14.0 62.5 55.4 19.5 5.7 4.9 12.4 277.8 23.2
Balochistan
17.8 18.6 22.0 11.9 8.2 5.4 28.6 23.0 7.2 2.1 2.7 10.9 158.4 13.2
NWFP
39.5 61.0 95.3 66.7 39.8 27.7 95.4 94.0 35.8 21.1 16.6 33.0 625.9 52.2
Punjab
15.0 22.4 32.0 20.7 15.8 24.6 108.4 93.6 33.7 6.4 4.9 11.7 389.2 32.4
Sindh
1.9 4.6 5.1 3.1 2.4 10.0 56.9 52.4 18.2 2.4 2.0 2.6 161.6 13.5
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Sum Mean
Fig. 4.49: E timated Weighted Precipitation over Pakistan and it. Provinces (1961 -90)
48
4.4 Station-wise
These are shown in Figs. 4.50-4.52 and in Table' 4.2 lO 4.4. On annual basis Murree, a place in the sub-montane region, gets the highest rainfall where as okkundi, a station in the deserts of Western
Balochistan receives the minimum amount of precipitation. Sununer monsoons again bring highest
rainmfall over Murree and lowest over Nokkundi. The winter rain' are highest in Dir, a station in the
Greater Himalayan region and lowest over Moenjo Dam, a station in the lower Indus Plains.
Table 4.2
49
4.5 Station-wise Annual and Seasonal Precipitation Patterns (1951-2000) These are presented in Table 4.5 (Appendix) and show the mean totals of precipitation (mm) on annual and seasonal basis for all stations in. different zones. 4.5.1 Zone-wise Annual & Seasonal Average Precipitation (1951-2000) These are consolidated for differ nt zones in Table 4.6. Annual and seasonal precipitation totals in millimeters are shown in contour form in Figs. 4.54 to 4.58.
. "
51
Table 4.6: Summary of the Zone-wise annual & seasonal Average Precipitation (mm) (1951-2000)
24.
Annual Moonsoon Region Average Zone-l(a) Greater Himalayas Zone-l (b) Sub-montane Region and monsoon dominated Zone-II Western Highlands Zone-III Central and Southern Punjab Zone-IV Lower Indus Plain Average
99.7
Winter
Average
Apr-May Average
Oct-Nov Average
436.3
1272.9 571.1
l16.6
146.1 97.8
710.4
238.6
189.1
286.9
148.7
32.1
6.3
Zone-V (a)
Balochistan Plateau (Northern) (Sulaiman & Kirthar Ranges) V(b)
246.0
74.6 155.7
92.2 50.5
55.9
32.2 8.1
4.9
3.1
5.9
52
25.
53
27. 26.
54
4.6 Conclusions Rains compared to other region are highest in the sub-montane region in all the seasons and lowest in the Balochisian Plateau in Zone V (b). Western Highland then come next to the sub-montane region receiving significant rain. These are brought both by the monsoon and winter y terns. All the zones receive minimum rains during Oct- nov, the Post monsoon sea on in Pakistan. The Upper Indu: Plains
(Zone III) receive comparatively more rains than Lower Indus Plain. (Zone IV).
55
Chapter 5
The chapter al
includes the Extreme Trend analysis carried out on monthly basis in temperature and
precipitation and number of tations showing increasing or decreasing trend for each zone are then computed and results drawn. The methodology employed in computing the extreme values followed the following steps: (a) Extreme values in the Temperature (maximum & minimum) and Precipitation falling above and below 1 standard deviation and for precipitation falling above 90tl) percentile are worked out for all the tations and for all the months eparately over the entire 50 year period.
(b) Values falling above 1 standard deviation (0) in case of maximum temperature and below 1 standard deviation (<1) in case of minimum temperature for all months are then added up to find yearly totals for each station and time series data are then generated for all stations. Similarly time series data for all stations are generated for precipitation falling above 90th percentile.
(c) Trend analysis is then carried out and number of stations showing increasing or decreasing trend for both the hot and cold ca es in case of temperature and wet and dry cases in case of precipitation are identified.
56
57
31.
Mean temperature trend change. for the period 1951-2000 on annual and seasonal basis for individual stations are shown in Tables 5.1 to 5.5 (Appendix VII)
5.3.2 Mean temperature trends (1951-2000) are presented in contour form in Fig .. 5.2 (a-c). The purpose is to help interpolate the changes for other locations.
62
64
76
32.
60
36
3d
32
30
28
26
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
33.
61
Mean temperature trend changes are shown for djfferent zone :Fig 5.3(a-e)
JIN~-------r---------~-:::::;
lIN
'<~tk'~'-------::EH-:::f------::6&::---'----:C7:l'-f ----~71<::--'
1.17 OM
3tN
JIll'
62
38. 37.
63
39.
21N 2m
'5 N
2ml------~----WE
o.; ~
64
5.4 Mean Temperature Trend 190'1-2000 for Pakistan with CRU Data
The CRU (Climatic Re earch nit, UK) data developed by Dr. Tim Mitchell (http://www.em.uea.ac.uk/~timm/index.html) for the whole globe on country basis has been extracted for Pakistan and the trend is worked out (Fig. 5.4). The CRU data is an assimilation of the
observational data from meteorological stations onto 0.5 latitude by 0.5 longitude covering the land
surface of the earth (New et, al; 1999-2000). In the new data-set, the gridded data arc transformed into 'country' averages by calculating the weighted mean of the constituent grid boxes of eaeh country. The change of O.6C over Pakistan is in accordance with the inerea e in the global surface temperature by 0.6 over the previous century.
65
Fig. 5.4: CRU data: Mean Temperature (C) Trend 1901-2000 for Pakistan
Balochistan Plateau shows warming trend in all the seasons. Coastal areas show increasing trend in all seasons except during the monsoon season.
Temperatures have fallen over West em Highlands and lower Indus Plains during winter, elsewhere there is an increa ing trend. Temperatures during winter show higher trends in the desert regions and coastal regions except around Pasni and Ormara. Out of 54 stations, 41 have shown increasing trend during Apr-May. Out of these 13 stations show increasing trends at 90 95 & 99 % significance level. Temperatures show increa ing trend in all the regions except in the Greater imalayas and Western Highland during Oct-Nov. The temperature change over the last century (1901-2000) over Pakistan using the CRU (Climate Research unit, UK) is found out to be O.6C. This tallies with the global rise in temperature over the-previous century.
66
45.
Trend changes in mean maximum temperature on annual and seasonal basis are shown for individual stations ill Tables 5.7 to 5.11 in Appendix VITI. 5.6.2 Mean maximum temperature trends for 1951-2000 are presented in contour form in Figs. 5.6(a-e). The purpose is to help interpolate the changes for other locations.
69
70
46.
Fig~. 5.6 c: (Oct- Nov) Mean Maximum Temperature Trends (C)
71
48. 47. Fig. 5.7 b: Monsoon Mean Iaximum Temperature Trend C (l951-2000)
0.10
72
49. 50.
73
5.6.4 Summary
Table 5.12: Zone-wise Summary of Mean Maximum Temperature Trend. (C) (1951-2000) Monsoon (Jun-Sep) -0.16 Winter (Dec-Mar) 0.73 Apr-May
Oct-Nov
Regions/Seasons Zone 1(a): Greater Himalayas (Winter dominated) Zone I(b): I Sub-montane Region and I Monsoon dominated ZoneII: Western Highlands ZoneIII: Central & Southern Punjab Zone IV: Lower Indus Plains Zone V(a): Balochistan Province (Sulaiman & Klrthar Ranges) Zone V(b): Balochistan Plateau (Western) Zone VI: Coastal Belt
Annual 0.63
1.91
0.55 0.78 0.78 0.63
0.98
0.04
-0.46 -1.10
0.29
-0.42
-0.25 -0.06
-0.14
-0.20
-0.02
0.54
-0.17
0.36
-0.33
0.53
0.08
0.59
0.86
0.83 -0.08
1.23 -0.08
0.10 -0.20
1.97
1.17 0.43
-0.25
Coastal areas show a cooling trend on annual basis and in all seasons except for the postmonsoon period (Oct- ov).
Oct- Nov period has become warmer in all the zones except in zones II & III.
74
5.8 Trend graphs showing significant changes in Mean Minimum Temperature (1951-2000)
Some Sample Trend Graphs showing significant changes at 90, 95 & 99% arc shown in Figs 5.8 (a-h
77
78
55.
79
56.
80
.lOt I
l2N
z,u
76N
58. 57. Fig. 5.10 c: Winter Mean Minimum Temperature Trend 0 (1951-2000)
81
59.
82
Regions/Seasons Zone l(a): Greater Himalayas (Winter dominated) Zone l(b): Sub-montane Region and Monsoon dominated Zone II: Western Highlands Zone III:Central & Southern Punjab Zone IV: Lower Indus Plains Zone V(a): Balochistan Province (Sulairnan & Kirthar Ranges) Zone V(b): Balochistan Plateau (Western) Zone VI: Coastal Belt
Annual
Monsoon (Jun-Sep)
Winter (Dec-Mar)
Apr-May
OctNov
Mean minimum temperature have dropped in the Greater Himalayan region in all the seasons. When compared to the maximum temperature trend changes, these reflect enhanced diurnal temperature variations. Days have become wanner and night colder.
Balochi tan Plateau has become warmer in all the easons. Summer (Apr-May) nights have become colder in the mountainous regions and in the Western Highlands. Central and Southern Punjab has become warmer in all the seasons except during the monsoon
season.
Coastal areas show warming trend except during the monsoon season.
83
5.9.1
Per-Year Percentage Precipitation Trends (1951-2000) on annual and seasonal basis arc presented in contour form in Figs. 5.11 (a-e). The purpose is to help interpolate the changes for other
locations
84
60. 61.
Fig. 5.11 b: Per-Year Percentage Monsoon Precipitation Trend (mrn)
36
32
30
28
26
62.
86
66. 65.
88
89
Data
The CRU (Climatic Research Unit, UK)
data developed
by
Dr.
Tim
Mitchell
(http://www.eru.tlca.ac.ukl-timm/index.html) for the whole globe on country basis was extracted for Pakistan and a trend change was worked out (Fig. 5.13). Precipitation has increased by 25% over the
previous century. A general increasing trend in precipitation is also seen by the past data (1951-2000) in
Pakistan
90
Fig. 5.13: RU data: Annual Precipitation (mm) Trend 19012000 for Pakistan
91
Table 5.25: Extreme Monthly Maximum Temperature Trends in different regions (1951-2000) 69. 68.
Table 5.26: Extrerne Monthly Minimum Temperature Trends in different region (1951 -2000)
92
5.13 Findings
5.13.1 Temperature Extremes
More than 75% of the stations in the Greater Himalayan region show extreme monthly maximum temperature increased. This reflects that tbe glacier and snow melt during the iummer months would likely enhance. Desert have become further hotter. 80% of the stations in the Balochistan Plateau have become further hot. This would likely enhance the pressure gradient force between the Arabian Sea and the adjoining continental areas during the hot monsoon months providing more pulling force for the maritime air masses from the Arabian Sea during the monsoon .eason.
Nights have become colder at more stations in the mountainous north in particular, the Sub-montane region. Similar is the situation in the Western Iighlands (Zone-If) which lies in the path of western disturbance.
5.13.2Precipitation Extremes
Extreme monthly precipitation events have increased at more stations in the Mountainous North. Seven out of 9 tatioru in the Greater Himalayan region and eight out eleven stations in the Sub-mointane region show such a trend. Extreme wet events have also increased over all th stations in the Balochistan Province. Rainfall distribution has thus changed over the last fifty years (1951-2000). There is an overall increase in the wet events over the country as a whole. Forty one stations out of fifty four stations how enhanced trend.
93
Chapter 6
The Himalayas
The Karakorams The Hindukush
The western most parts of the Himalaya fall in Pakistan. The sub-Himalayas - the southern most ranges arc not very high and (ange within the heights 600 to 1200 masl. The Lesser Himalayas lie to the north of the sub-Himalayas and rise to 1,800 to 4,600 masl. The Greater Himalayas are located north of the Lesser Himalayas. They attain snowy heights of more than 4 GOO m.
The Karakoram Ranges in the extreme north rise to an average height of 6,100 m. Mount Goodwin Austin (K-2) - the second highest peak in the world (8)610 m) is located in the
Karakorams.
94
The Hindukush Mountains take off the western side of the Pamir Plateau located to the west of the Karakorams. These mountains take a southerly tU111 and rise to snowy heights. Some of the peaks rise to great heights like Trich Mir (7,690 m).
S.l o.
Range
Height (m) 1372 1460 2156 2210 1500 1370 1465 962 2168 981 1251 702 1 "09 13 2168
Latitude (N) 35.67 35.92 36.17 35.30 35.85 35.20 35.57 34.73 35.37 34.38 35.42 34.37 34.18 34.22 33.92
Longitude (E) 74.63 74.33 73.40 75.68 71.83 71.85 71.78 72.35 74.90 73.35 74.10 73.48 73.25 73.62 73.38
Gupis Skardu Chitral Dir Drosh Saidu Sharif Astor Balakot hilas uzaffarabad Kakul Garhi Dupatta urree
71.
96
72.
Fig 6.2: lirnate Classification of the Mountainous North of Pakistan Table 6.2: Clirnate Classification and Rainfall variability (1961-90)
Classification
Range
Monsoon
Range: 35-49
Winter
Range: 25-100 Average: 46 Range: 250-615 Average: 388 Range: 60-520 A verage: 372
Apr-May
Range: 44-55
Average: 49
Oct-Nov
Range: 05-15 Average: 11 Range: 35-105 Average: 70 Range: 15-110 Average: 77
Karakoram
Average: 43 Range:
25-440
Hindukush
Average: 233
Range: .>5-940 Average: 594
Himalayas
Mostly Humid
Karakoram Range is highly arid. The Karakoram and the Hindukush range' are basically winter-rain dominated ranges 'where as the Himalayan range is winter dominated for station above 35N and monsoon dominated below 35 N . The period Oct- Nov is the driest in all the three ranges.
97
6.5 Spatial Temperature Variability: The spatial patterns with regard to temperature (mean maximum and minimum) are shown in Tables 6.3 a-c for different seasons and for different ranges: Table 6.3a: Mean Temperature Variability (1961-90)
98
significant at 90, 95 or 99 % confidence level are also worked out (Tables 6.4 to 6.6),
Table 6.4: Mean Temperature Trends during Monsoon (Jun-Sep)
99
Monsoon season has become colder in all the three ranges reflecting decreased snow and glacier melt during the season. Drop in temperature
pronounced and statistically significant.
ill
Winter on the average bas become warmer in the Karakoram and Hindukush ranges. Statistically significant increase is seen at Skardu and Chitral. More stations, in the Himalayan range also show warming trend, though slight. Only the station Kakul shows a significantly low
temperature. Precipitation as a result, may rail more as rainfall than snow in all the three ranges thus enhancing the probability of somewhat higher base flows in the Indus Basin Rivers
during winter.
Summer(Apr-May) has significantly become warmer in all the three ranges thus reflecting enhanced
snow and glacier melt contributions. Consequently the base flows in the rivers in the
pre-monsoon period may enhance the probability of disastrous floods when superimposed by
heavy monsoon rains in the subsequent monsoon months.
100
101
All the ranges show a warming trend during winter. 80% of the stations show an increasing trend with 5 stations significant at 90 to 99% confidence level. Probability of winter precipitation to fall as rainfall compared to snowfall is likely to enhance.
Maximum temperatures have significantly gone up in all the three ranges during the summer (Apr-May) months. This is the period when snow and glacier melt practically starts. The warming trend indicates enhanced snow and glacier melt and consequently can contribute towards raising the likelihood of enhanced base flow in the Indus Basin rivers in the ubscqucnt summer monsoon months and thus raising the probability of severe floods when super-imposed by severe monsoon rains.
102
103
have thus become colder whereas days have become warmer when seen in the context of maximum temperatures during winter. During the summer season, negative trend is seen in the Karakoram and Hindukush Ranges with higher temperature trend in Himalayas. Summer nights have thus become colder in the Karakoram and Hindukush Ranges.
104
lO5
and Himalayan Ranges during winter whereas a decreasing trend is seen in the Karakoram Range.
Murree in the Himalayan Range shows the highest increase in winter.
106
In order to mark areas a drought vulnerable maps showing the regions remaining dry for more than 50% of the time during different seasons arc prepared. In the coun ry, there are two main rainy seasons namely winter (December-March) and summer men oon (JuneSeptember) and two tran ition periods: Pre-monsoon (April-May) and po t monsoon (October- ovember) periods when there are almost insignificant rain in the country. In each season, there is at least one region in the country, which on the average remains dry for more than 50% of the time and thus makes it vulnerable to drought and then drought prone depending upon the rains in the subsequent seasons i.e. when there is prolonged absence of precipitation in that region. Such a situation can be predicted well before time if the monitoring and early warning system is reliable. It is here clarified that a plac remaining dry for more than 50% of the time means that out of 30 years, the normal period of the data the place receives zero rainfall in more than 15 years for a particular month i.e. for more than 50% of the total period.
The major parts of the southern plains of Pakistan are ba ically arid to hyper-arid as reflected by the spatial annual precipitation (Chapter 4), the su ceptibility of different regions in this part to become drought vulnerable in different easons is very high. To sec as to what i the rainfall situation in each drought vulnerable region, we first see as to what is
the estimated rainfall di tribution over the different provinces of Pakistan worked out using the Theissen Polygon method using the 30-year normal values (Table 7.1). The provinces of Sindh,
73.
Balochistan and part of Southern Punjab are located in southern parts of Pakistan.
Table 7.J.: eason-wise 'Weighted Precipitation (mm) over the different Provinces of Pakistan
NWFP 228.8
252.9 106.5 37.7
PUNJAB
BALOCHISTAN
300N and give rise to cloudiness and precipitation. The mountainous north, because of its topography
helps extracting the moisture from these western disturbances. At times these disturbances induce secondaries in the lower latitudes below 30 N and get further accentuated by Moisture feeding from the Arabian Sea and cause widespread rains in the country. But these western disturbances still rarely reach the Sindh province, the region down in the south-eastern part of Pakistan. These areas thus get insignificant rains during the sea on and u ually remain dry for more than 50% of the time. When there are no winter rains in the e areas, they are vulnerable to drought (Fig. 7.2). Weighted precipitation (Table 7.1) also confirms receipt of very low rains in the Sindh Province.
109
Fig: 7.3: Drought Vulnerable areas during Apr-May (1961-1990) In case winter rains fail in the indh Province and the subsequent months of April and May also bring no or insignificant rain things with regard to it vulnerability to drought would further aggravate and it may now tum out to be a drought prone region. Simultaneously parts of Baluchistan arc now vulnerable to drought as the e areas also remain dry for more than 50% ofth time during this season.
shown in Fig. 7.4. The province of Smdh 1s now likely overcome the drought situation which it could have developed during the previous two seasons winter and summer) but it still has the
probability of remaining dry for more than 25% of the time. Tn ca e it come, to such a situation again
where it receives very little rainfall during even the monsoon season, it is sure to become a drought prone region which would now be facing the prolonged ab 'enee of precipitation. This is however rare in indh Province. During this season the station remaining dry for more than 50% of the time in Balochistan seem to have increased compared to the previous period of April-May. In case of failure of rainfall during this season, most parts of Balochistan are likely to become drought prone.
Fig. 7.4: Drought Vulnerable area during the Monsoon Season (1961-1990)
of Southern Pakistan below around 32N, as getting dry for more than 50% of the time. These
constitute major parts of southern Punjab and the province' of Sindh and Balochistan, This period of the year thus makes half of Paki tan as drought vulnerable and its likelihood to become drought prone is very high if the rains in the monsoon season has already failed and winter rains also bring insignificant rains.
III
75.
7 0
7 2
76
7.3.5 Conclusion:
This is the one approach adopted for the study of drought vulnerability in Pakistan. It needs to be studied from other angles and approaches too to make it more perfect and reliable a thi creeping disaster is also affect the ecosystem and multitude of socioeconomic sectors.
112
113
Chapter 9
ENSO and NAO Influences over the Weather
of Pakistan
8.1 Introduction
The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (EN SO) phenomenon is associated with anomalous sea-level pres ure, surface winds and SST ncar the equatorial Pacific (Barton ct al 2004) and is caused by the sea level pressure gradient between Darwin (Australia) and Tahiti (Wallace and Vogel, 1994). It has now been recognized that the single most important key to earth's year-to-year climate variability is the El- Nino Southern 0scillaiion phenomenon (Kriplani R.H. 1996). El-Nino episodes directly affect the climate of
at least half the planet and in many instances result in heavy lo s of life and resource. (ibid). Th Southern
Oscillation Index (Sal) used in the study is the air pre sure anomaly between Tahiti and Darwin (Australia). The negative phase of the SOl represents the below normal pre ure at Tahiti and above
normal pressure at Darwin and vice versa for the po itive pha e of the SOL Prolonged periods of negative OJ values coincide with abnormally warm ocean waters across the eastern tropical pacific (El-Nino
episodes) while the prolonged periods of positive SOl values coincide with the abnormally cold ocean water across the tropical Pacific (La-Nina episode) (philander, 1990)
The NAO describes a large-scale meridional oscillation in the atmospheric mass between the
North Atlantic regions of the subtropical anticyclone near the Azorc and the lib polar low pressure system
near Iceland. It is a major source of seasonal to inter decadal variability in the worldwide atmospheric circulation (Hurrell, 1995) and represents the most important "tclcconncction" of the North
Atlantic-European area (Hurrell and van Loon, 1997; Kapala ct al. 1998), where it is most pronounced in
winter. The measure of the state of NAO the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) is widely used as a
general indicator for the strength of the we ierlics over the eastern orth Atlantic and Western Europe and most importantly for winter climate in Europe (Hurrell and van Loon, 1997" Wanner ct al., 1997; WMO 1998). In fact, the 1 AOI is highly correlated with a large variety of atmo phere-related environmental
variables mainly during the 'winter season (Dickson et at, 2000 and Souriau and Yiou, 2001)
In this study, ENSO and NAO phenomena and their indices have been studied in relation to rainfall
departures (monsoon rains in case of ENSO and winter rains in the case of NAOI). The
114
rainfall departures arc worked out for June to September (HAS) for monsoon dominated region (Fig. 1.3) referred to as "Monsoon Region '.
Analysis is also carried out for identifying the correlation of - AOI values differing from its mean value by more than one standard deviation, with the precipitation in the regions above and below 35N. Dccadal correlations between rainfall departures and NAOI in extreme NAOI years are also developed for the regions 35 - 37N & 31.5N-35N.
115
In the Monsoon Region, five out of seven EI ino events that occurred in the period 1951-2000 are found associated with deficient rainfall. Rainfall departure was positive during the years 1994 and 1997. In case of La Nina years, four events showed excess rainfall whereas only one (that in 1998) showed deficit rainfall. Fig. 8.1 shows the correlations of SOl (JJAS) on annual basis with rainfall departures of Monsoon Region for the period 1951-2000. During the monsoon period (JJAS) the positive correlation over Monsoon Region is significant at 95% level which indicates that more rainfall occurs in La ina years compared to the E1 ino years.
116
76.
Fig. 8.1: Variation of SOl with Rainfall Departures from the 1951-2000 mean value during June-se
Fig. 8.2 hows the annual patterns of SOl (JJAS ) with rainfall departures of Monsoon Region in case of El-
mo years.
Fig. 8.2: Variation of SOl with Rainfall Departures from the 1951-2000 mean value for Jun-Sep during EJ ino years
Fig.3 shows the annual pattern of SOl (JJAS) with rainfall departures of Monsoon Region in La- Nina years.
117
Fig. 8.3: Variation of SOl with Rainfall Departures from the 1951-2000 mean value for Jun-Sep during a Nina years
Some significant correlation during the decades 1961-1970 & 1981-1990 and a negative correlation during 1991-2000 are shown in Fig. 8.4 (a), (b) & (c)
118
119
Year
5
7
1
it
199 1997
8.6
ENSO Composite of geo-potential Heights over South Asia Region and precipitation patterns during EI Nino and La Nina Years
During the El- ino years, most of the depression dissipated over Bangladesh or over India. The geo-potential height pattern during the El-Nino years compared to La-Nina years developed using the NCEP pressure (850 hPa) reanalysis data (Fig 8.5) hewed that the situation was not conducive for the uninterrupted flow of depressions from the Bay of Bengal because of increased geo-potential heights at 850 hPa over India compared to the Bay of Bengal.
-.
120
77.
Fig. 8.5: ENSO composite of gee-potential heights at 850hpa over South Asia
Using the CRU T 2.0 precipitation data set validated for Paki tan, a composite picture was developed over South Asia for the El- Nino and La- Nina years (Fig. 8.6). Rainfall if; seen drastically dropped over upper parts of Pakistan.
121
78.
CRU based precipitation patterns during the monsoon season and winter season in Pakistan are respectively shown in Figs. g.7 (a) & (b) for comparison. Both mon oon and , v inter rain are concentrated in the sub-montane regions between around 32 to 35N.
122
Fig. 8.7: CRU Precipitation in mm/d during JJAS and DJFM over Pakistan
(C-), weak La-Nina; (W-), weak EI-Nino; (W), moderate EI- Nino; (W+), strong El-Nino; (N), neutral: Source: NOAAfNational Weather Service, USA
123
Extreme rainfall events occurred during either the weak El- ina or La-Nina years or during the neutral years except during 1994 & 1997 which had have respectively the moderate and strong EI-Ninos.
In 010 t of the cases heavy rain in the upper catchments of the rivers caused flooding downstream. The
years 1955, 1959, 1973, 1976, 1992 & 1997 witnessed catastrophic flood in Pakistan. (Annual Flood
Reports, PMD)
The position in case of precipitation event below 1 remained as in Table 8.5. Table 8.5: Rainfall zxtrernes below 1 versus" ENSO Episodes
Years
Below
1
Classification
1952
1957 1965
N w W \vWtoW+ W+
1969 1982
1987
1
1
Most of the cases have deficient rain during both the moderate and. trong EI Nino years.
Table 8.6: Variation of AOI with rainfall departures Whole Data NAOI fDJFM)
0.29 0.18
35N - 37N)
Correlations related to Table 8.6 are hown graphically for NAOI in Figs. 8.8 (a) & (b)
124
79.
Fig. 8.8: Variation of rainfall departure with NAOI in different regions Extreme NAOI values falling above and below 1 standard deviation were identified and correlated with rainfall departures from 1951-2000 mean values for winter (Dec- Mar) for the tv 0 mountainous regions. Positive correlation were found with NAOr values (Table 8.7) Table 8.7: Correlation of Extremes AOI values with the rainfall departures from the 1951-2000 mean values
125
Decadal correlations of A I with winter rainfall departures from the 1951-2000 mean values for the period (Dec-Mar) for the two regions are at above 35 and below 35N. Table 8.8: Decadal correlation of NAOI values with rainfall departures from the 1951-2000 mean values for different region Decadal Decade 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 orrelation Coefficient Region 35N - 37N 0.10 -0.17 0.63 0.05 -0.25
0
81. 80.
Decadal correlation of NAOI values with rainfall departures In the two regions in the mountainous north are shown for the decades 1971-1980 and for the decade 1991-2000 in Figs8.l0 (a), b), (c) &(d)
127
82.
Fig. 8.10: Decadal correlation between AOI and Rainfall departure in different regions during 1971 - 1980 and 1990 - 2000 decades.
8.9 Conclusions:
1. EI-Nino years are associated with deficient rainfall over Monsoon Region. The pattern, however, changed in the last decade (1991-2000) and had excess rains. 2. La- Nina years are generally positively correlated with rainfall departures except during the last decade of 1990 3. AOI values were seen to have a positive correlation with winter rains for the region 31.5-35 N. Correlations with the winter dominated region above 35N , however remained comparatively low. 4. The composite pattern of Goo-potential heights over India, the passage for the flow of monsoon depressions from Bay of Bengal to Pakistan, indicated higher pressure over most of India compared to the pre sure over Bay of Bengal blocking the uninterrupted flow' of monsoonal systems to Pakistan. 5. The ENSO composite of precipitation pattern over South Asia showed drastic drop in rainfall over the upper parts of Pakistan.
128
References:
129
130
APPENDICES
131
Appendix I
Table 2.1: Inventory of Meteorological Station:
132
Appendix II
Table-2.2: List of Stations during 1931-60 and 1961-90
133
Appendix III
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
144
145
146
147
148
149
Appendix IV
1 able 3.14: Annual & Seasonal Mean Temperature (C) Distribution (1951-2000)
150
151
Table 3.16: Annual & Scasonal Minimum Temperature (C) Distribution (1951-2000)
152
83. 84.
Appendix V
153
155
156
91.
157
158
159
93. 92.=
160
161
97.
162
99. 98.
163
100.
164
165
105. 106.
166
168
Appendix VI
169
Appendix VII
Mean Temperature Trends (195'(-2000) Trend' in mean temperature on annual and sea ronal basi' are shown for individual rations in abies 5.1 to 5.5. Table 5.1
170
171
. -
172
17 3
l74
Appendix VIII
Mean Maximum Temperature Trend (1951-2000)
Trend changes in mean Maximum Temmpcraturc on annual and 'en ronal basis are, hown for individual station Table 5.7 to 5.11 Table 5.7
175
'
176
177
178
179
Appendix IX
Mean Minimum Temperature Trend Changes (1951-2000)
Trend changes in mean minimum t rnperature on annual and sea sonal basi shown for individual station
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Appendix X
Table 5.19: Per Year % age Anoual Precipitation Trend (1951-2000)
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Table 5.23: Per Year % age (Oct- Nov) Precipitation Trend (1951-2000)
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