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North America High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research

New York April 13, 2012

Credit Strategy Weekly Update


High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research
The S&P 500 initially sold off 2.8% between Thursday and Tuesday, but recovered 2.1% on Wednesday and Thursday to conclude the week down modestly, -0.7%. High-yield bonds and loans posted modest weekly declines of -0.26% and -0.01%, respectively, bringing their YTD returns to 5.5% and 4.0%. For context, high-yield bond yields had come in 125bp to start the year by early March, but following the latest setback stand 81bp inside 2011s close at 7.63%. Concerns are now rotating back to the EU with sovereign bond yields rising. But for us, the more pressing concern is the recent poor economic activity. Italy and Spains GDP are expected to contract by at least 2% in 1H12, Chinas 1Q GDP reading last night was a slight miss, and last Fridays US labor market report was a big disappointment, renewing concerns around growth. And as October taught us when high-yield bond yields rose to as high as 10%, the economic outlook will continue to hold the key for performance. Therefore the asset class isnt likely to make significant headway until the US economic data firms and reassures investors the YTD improvement wasnt due to either seasonal adjustments or the warm winter, particularly as the market is now seeing outflows. Of course fundamentally the market is sound, with credit metrics fine and defaults very low. And the biggest theme of early 2012 has certainly been the positive feedback loop between robust demand for the asset class and record new-issuance, of which the majority has gone toward extending maturities and shoring up liquidity. With a default rate half its long-term average at 2% and little need for companies to access capital (total maturities across bonds and loans through 2013 about match 1Qs bond activity alone), spreads of 670bp certainly look attractive in that context. Incorporating our economists forecast for modest 2.2% US GDP growth in 2012 we continue to believe high-yield bond yields will end the year at 7%, 63bp below current levels. As for new-issuance and flows, high-yield bond funds reported outflows totaling -$1.29bn this week (-0.9% of AUM, 37% ETFs). This was the first outflow for the asset class in 19 weeks, a period which saw a record $25.6bn move into the asset class. Conversely, leveraged loan funds reported their largest inflow in 43 weeks, +$281mn. And new-issue activity moderated for both bonds and loans in the shortened week. Specifically, 8 bonds and 10 institutional loans priced for $5.5bn and $2.4bn, respectively, bringing yearto-date volume to $118.9bn and $59.4bn. With the pace of US CLO supply ($8.1bn YTD) stronger than previously expected, our CLO research colleagues raise their FY 2012 forecast from $20bn to $30bn. Part of their rationale is CLO funding costs will continue to decline as debt investors look to gain spread pickup in CLOs versus other products. For context,$30bn is still a fraction (30%) of peak 2007 volume and is comparable to 2004. At L+130bp, US CLO AAA primary has met their L+125bp target. As such, they also revised this to L+100bp, which should be met by early 2013.
North America High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Peter D. AcciavattiAC
(1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com

Tony Linares
(1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com

Nelson Jantzen, CFA


(1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com

Alisa Meyers
(1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

Rahul Sharma
J.P. Morgan India Private Ltd rahul.z.sharma@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.

Featured topics
Credit strategy update (p.3) Despite record retail inflows, cash balances move lower q/q reflecting better conditions (p.7) Credit highlights (p.9) Revising primary US CLO supply and spread forecasts (p.10) Economic summary (p.18) Credit derivatives summary and outlook (p.20) See page 48 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

www.morganmarkets.com

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Table of contents
Credit strategy update
Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Despite record retail inflows, cash balances move lower q/q reflecting better conditions . . .7 Credit Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Revising primary US CLO supply and spread forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

Economic summary
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Calendar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

Credit derivatives
Credit derivatives summary and outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20

Week in review
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 Bond spreads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28 Loan spreads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Gainers & Losers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 Market technicals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 High yield new issue activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36 Institutional loan new issue activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 High yield supply and demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39 High yield defaults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 Leveraged loan defaults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42 Credit trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43 Rising stars and fallen angels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44 Index profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Credit strategy update


With the sell-off in stocks intensifying earlier in the week and flows turning negative for the first time since November (-$1.3bn weekly outflow), high-yield bond yields suffered their sharpest increase of 2012, before stabilizing as the week progressed amid recovering stock prices. For context, high-yield bond yields had tightened 125bp to start the year through early March, but following the latest setback stand 81bp inside 2011s close at 7.63%. Concerns are now rotating back to the EU with sovereign bond yields rising. But for us, the more pressing concern is the recent poor economic activity. Italy and Spains GDP are expected to contract by at least 2% in 1H12, Chinese 1Q GDP reading last night was a slight miss (8.1% actual versus 8.4% consensus), and last Fridays US labor market report was a big disappointment, renewing concerns around growth. And despite expected strong corporate fundamentals that should be again evident in 1Q earnings season, questionable economic conditions will likely make it increasingly likely the recent choppiness in trading since mid-March will persist in the near-term.
Spains 10-year bond yields are more than 100bp higher since early March
7.5% 10-year government bond yield (%) 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% Feb-10 Mar-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 Aug-10 Sep-10 Aug-11 Sep-11 Nov-10 Dec-10 Nov-11 Dec-11 May-10 May-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jan-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Jan-12 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12
3

Italy

Spain

10-year Gov't Bond Yields Current: Spain: 5.94%; Italy: 5.48% November Peak: Spain: 6.70%; Italy: 7.26%

Oct-10

Source: Bloomberg.

Rather than focusing on Europe, the chief concern for high-yield investors has always been the US economic outlook, and the weaker than expected payroll report on Friday is what really provided the fuel for the latest setback to prices. Of course fundamentally the market is sound, with credit metrics fine and defaults very low. And the biggest theme of early 2012 has certainly been the positive feedback loop between robust demand for the asset class and record new-issuance, of which the majority has gone toward extending maturities and shoring up liquidity. With a default rate half its long-term average at 2% and little need for companies to access capital (total maturities across bonds and loans through 2013 about match 1Qs bond activity alone), spreads of 670bp certainly look attractive in that context. But as October taught us when high-yield bond yields rose to as high as 10%, the economic outlook will continue to hold the key for performance, much as it did on the positive side when yields collapsed to nearly 7% by early March amid sharply firmer global economic sentiment. Over the next nine months, we view an economic backdrop consisting of modest growth as ideal for high-yield investors because it provides upside to current prices by placing a cap on Treasury yields. For context, incorporating our economists forecast for 2.2% US

Oct-11

Jul-10

Jul-11

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

GDP growth in 2012 we are forecasting high-yield bond yields to end the year at 7%, 63bp below current levels. But until the US economic data firms and reassures investors the YTD improvement wasnt due to either seasonal adjustments or the warm winter, the asset class is unlikely to make headway with the market now seeing outflows. On that note, this weeks -$1.29bn outflow was the first outflow for the asset class since late November, and reverses a stretch where $25.6bn moved into the asset class (11% of AUM). In Europe, the recent focus has been on Spain where bond yields are rising. The wheels began to come off the bus when the Prime Minister announced at the European Summit meeting on March 2nd that his government had abandoned its deficit-reduction targets for 2012. And where trust is everything, Spanish 10-year bond yields have subsequently increased 103bp in response. And the mid-week catalyst for stabilization in Spanish and Italian bond yields and improvement in overall risk appetites, investors seem to be focusing on options available to officials, including SMP buys, EFSF/ESM activity, and IMF fund raising. Another catalyst for the markets recovery has been the better data out of China, including PMIs, auto sales, retail sales, and overall loan activity. While 1Q12 GDP of 8.1% released Thursday night was shy of expectations, trends in March have been better, and speculation continues to build that Chinas PBOC will soon ease policy. And whereas the S&P 500 has fallen 2.0% in April, Chinese shares have rebounded sharply, 4.3% higher MTD in response. Our economists continue to expect 1Q to represent the trough for Chinese growth and for activity to rebound sharply in 2H12. And finally, as for US economic data, initial jobless claims were weaker (+13K to 380K) following last Fridays disappointing labor market report (+120K actual versus +205K consensus), but with the trade deficit coming in much narrower than expected (-$46bn in February versus -$52bn in January), our economists upwardly revised their 1Q12 US GDP forecast for a second time to 2.5%, from 1.5% a week ago. At the same time, the early read on 1Q12 earnings has been decent, particularly for industrials (AA, CP, PPG, and WAB). Earnings season risk is now being viewed to the upside. As per our chief equity strategist Tom Lee, he has established a 1Q12 EPS estimate of $24.25, which is about 1% above the current bottoms-up consensus estimate of $24.07. The fact that 1Q12 EPS grew at only 1% y/y on top-line growth of 4% seems well telegraphed as there have been fewer negative revisions q/q. This is setting the stage for companies to beat estimates, and so far in 1Q (28 companies reported), 82% are exceeding estimates compared to 60-70% seen in past 4 quarters. And composite overall beat is coming in at 4.6%, well ahead of the 2.6% seen in 4Q11 results at this exact time. And there is a case for top-line accelerating later in the year when considering the combined impact of China policy easing, Euro-area boost from weaker Euro, and steady demand recovery in the US as fueling better comparisons in 2H12. Many important cyclicals are still seeing solid demand growthAerospace, Construction, Machinery, Road and Rail, IT services, and PCs are seeing solid gains while weakness is not surprisingly seen in Mining, Autos and Airlines. But really, after two back-to-back double-digit quarterly returns for the S&P 500, the short-term risk/reward certainly seemed less asymmetrically favorable coming into April with momentum ebbing, expectations realigned, and

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

macro challenges emerging such as China, Europe, and gasoline prices. And there seems to be concern developing that 2012s spring is shaping up to be a carbon copy of the spring of 2011 and 2010. In terms of performance, the S&P 500 initially sold off 2.8% between Thursday and Tuesday, but recovered 2.1% on Wednesday and Thursday to conclude the week down modestly, -0.7%. Meanwhile, high-yield bonds and loans posted modest declines of -0.26% and -0.01%, respectively, bringing their YTD returns to 5.5% and 4.0%. High-yield bond yields increased 11bp week-over-week to 7.63%, whereas the yield to maturity for our recently launched J.P Morgan Leveraged Loan Index decreased 4bp to 6.66%. As for other asset classes this week, 10-year Treasuries, emerging markets, and high-grade bonds returned +1.2%, +0.5%, and +0.5%, respectively. And for spreads, high-yield finished 20bp wider at T+670bp and loan spreads (to maturity) finished 7bp wider at L+561bp. The HY CDX, LCDX, and IG CDX finished flat, 33bp wider, and flat at 597bp, 322bp and 97bp, respectively.
High-yield bond and loan yields continue to slowly drift higher
10.0% 9.8% 9.5% 9.3% 9.0% 8.8% 8.5% 8.3% 8.0% 7.8% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.8% 6.5% 6.3% 6.0% High-yield Leveraged Loan VIX Index (10-day average) 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14

Yields (%)

VIX
5

Note: Yields for high-yield bonds are represented by the yield to worst on our J.P Morgan Global High Yield Index. Yields for leveraged loans are represented by the yield to maturity on our J.P Morgan Leveraged Loan Index. Source: J.P. Morgan.

In terms of new-issuance, activity moderated as the week progressed amid mutual fund outflows. For the shortened week 8 bonds priced for $5.5bn, versus 17 deals for $7.6bn last week. But including five weeks when volumes exceeded $10bn, YTD activity has risen to $118.9bn and for context, the current pace of activity is consistent with annualized volume of $430bn (versus our recently raised forecast for $300bn), but we attribute some transitory factors (seasonal boost, very low volatility, lower need to refinance) and do not expect this pace to sustain over the balance of the year. But the more important takeaway from all of this supply is the continued focus on refinancing bond and loan facilities, which continues to keep net supply within the confines of demand while also serving to anchor medium term default expectations. As for institutional loans, primary activity also decreased over the shortened week. Specifically, 10 loans priced for $2.4bn, versus last weeks 17 loans totaling $10.0bn. YTD volume of $59.4bn remains fairly modest versus $104.6bn over the comparable period last year.

Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield bond and loan flows High-yield bond funds reported outflows totaling -$1.29bn this week (-0.9% of AUM, 37% ETFs), versus inflows totaling +$286mn last week. It was also the first outflow for the asset class in 19 weeks (last outflow in November), a period which saw a record $25.6bn move into the asset class (11% of AUM). After recording +$8.75bn, +$7.11bn, and +$4.55bn of inflows for January, February, and March, Aprils month-to-date outflows totals -$1.1bn. The breakdown for this weeks number is an outflow of -$481mn for the HY ETFs (37%) and -$812mn for actively managed funds, versus inflows of +$71mn (25%) and +$215mn last week. The HY ETFs now account for $6.1bn, or 32% of the $19.3bn moving into HY in 2012. The $6.1bn for the ETFs exceeds inflows for all of 2011, whereas $13.2bn of inflows YTD for actively managed funds also exceeds the $9.9bn for all of last year. Despite outflows from bond funds, loan funds reported their largest inflow in 43 weeks. Leveraged loan funds had inflows of +$281mn this week, comparable to last weeks +$149mn inflow. This weeks inflow for loan funds was also the 11th in the years first 15 weeks, after seeing outflows in almost every week between August and December. After taking in $47mn last week, bank loan ETFs took in a more modest $2mn over the past 5 days. And after seeing outflows totaling 94mn in January and 339mn in February, loan funds recorded inflows totaling $910mn for March and $370mn MTD. Marchs inflow was the asset classes largest since June 2011. Year-to-date, inflows into high-yield bond funds are +$19.3bn, versus $15.6bn for all of 2011, while inflows for leveraged loan funds are +$847mn, versus +$13.9bn of inflows for all of 2011. High-yield bond and loan new-issuance Leveraged loan new issue activity moderated on the back of less favorable market sentiment and given slower activity around the Easter weekend. For high-yield, 8 bonds priced for $5.5bn, compared to a prior 4-week average of $8.1bn. We recently upped our 2012 HY bond issuance forecast by $75bn to $300bn which is in line with 2010s record. And annualized issuance pace is currently tracking over $400bn, but we temper our expectations due to seasonal factors and potentially less conductive macro conditions as the year progresses. For loans, 10 loans priced for $2.4bn this week, compared to a prior 4-week average of $6.5bn. Thus, YTD leveraged loan new issuance volume totals $59.4bn, 43% lower than activity over the same time last year. In terms of the details, Tuesday activity kicked off the week on a strong note as 4 deals priced across 5 issues for $4.0bn, but activity subsequently moderated. Tuesdays activity included El Paso Energys dual tranche deal totaling $2.75bn and funding the buyout of the exploration and production business. The upsized $750mm 7NC-3 Sr Sec 2nd-lien Notes (Ba3/BB-) priced at the tight end of their 7% area guidance at 6.875% while the downsized $2bn 8NC-4 Sr Notes (B2/B) printed at the low end of their 9.5% area talk at 9.375%. Accompanied by a $750mm Sr Sec 2nd-lien TL and an equity check of $3.2bn, the transaction marks just the third sizeable LBO of 2012 (Taminco in January and Samson Investment Co. in February). With the pricing of this sizeable deal, acquisition financing made up close to 50% of all activity this week, bringing YTD acquisition deal activity to 15.6% of

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

all issuance, which is somewhat ahead of 12.2% over the same time period last year. The other sizeable deal to price this week was Intelsat Jackson Holdings $1.2bn add-on to its existing $1bn 7.25% 10NC-5 Sr Notes (B3/B) with proceeds aimed at the tender offers for up to $310mm of its $702mm 9.5% Sr Notes due 2016 and up to $470mm of its $1.05bn 11.25% Sr Notes due 2016. The deal received strong demand, upsizing by $400mn. Looking ahead, the forward calendar holds only 3 deals for $420mm suggesting modest issuance volumes in the coming week. As for institutional leveraged loans, activity remained focused on refinancing this week, which made up 59% of activity, with only 3 of 10 loans priced aimed at nonrefinancing purposes. Specifically EP Energy priced their $750mm covenant-lite term loan, after increasing the size from $500mm, with the proceeds helping back the $7.1bn LBO of El Pasos exploration and production business. Both the loans and bonds were well oversubscribed, highlighting the current demand for new money. The other two non-refinancing deals were $100mm covenant-lite add-on TL acquisition financing for Sprouts Farmers Market and $125mn add-on TLB dividend financing for Preferred Sands. The launched in-market institutional calendar now stands at 34 deals totaling $14.1bn while the full forward calendar including announced deals holds 42 loans for $15.1bn.

Despite record retail inflows, cash balances move lower q/q reflecting better conditions
Despite record retail inflows ($20.4bn in 1Q), cash balances among high-yield funds ended 1Q12 down 1.1% q/q due to a number of reasons, including record-new issuance ($107.7bn gross, $42.5bn non-refinancing), improving global macro economic conditions, diminishing tail risks surrounding European sovereigns and banks, and an increase in exposure by HY funds to the loan asset class (+70bp q/q to 3.2%). And arguably, high-yield funds came into the year too defensive carrying cash balances at their highest level since the credit crisis (approximately 2% above the historical average and 3-4% above levels of the past couple of years), and the sharp turn in broader macro economic sentiment, rightly so, provided managers incentive to deploy that cash over the balance of the quarter. And the q/q decline came despite inflows in 1Q that equated to approximately 7.5% of AUM for actively managed funds. We estimate cash balances among high-yield fund managers concluded 1Q12 at a still elevated 4.6%, versus 5.7% in December 2011 and 3.2% in March 2011. For context, we estimate the historic norm for cash is around 4-5%, but record newissuance conditions and few high yielding alternatives left cash balances well below these levels over the past few years.
Asset breakdown for high-yield mutual funds
31-Dec-08 Bonds Cash Loans Stocks Other1 85.2% 6.6% 4.5% 0.3% 3.3% 31-Dec-09 90.9% 2.4% 3.8% 0.6% 2.3% High Yield Mutual Funds 31-Dec-10 31-Mar-11 30-Dec-11 89.1% 3.2% 3.8% 1.1% 2.8% 89.3% 3.2% 3.6% 1.0% 2.9% 89.1% 5.7% 2.5% 0.8% 1.8% 30-Mar-12 89.8% 4.6% 3.2% 0.6% 1.8% Q/Q change 0.7% -1.1% 0.7% -0.2% 0.0% Y/Y change 0.5% 1.4% -0.4% -0.4% -1.1%

Note: Other assets include convertible and non-convertible preferred stock, convertible bonds, credit derivatives, emerging market corporates and sovereigns, and structured notes. Source: J.P. Morgan. 7

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Cash balances are down 1.1% q/q


7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 3.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.2% 3.2% 4.1% 3.3% 6.6% 6.5% 5.7% 4.6%

Note: Cash balances are as of March 30th, 2012. Source: J.P. Morgan.

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Credit Highlights
Gaming & Lodging
Susan BerlinerAC (1-212) 270-3085 susan.berliner@jpmorgan.com Richard DeGaetani (1-212) 834-9524 richard.j.degaetani@jpmorgan.com

CZR Recent Stock Performance: We believe the most positive factor for CZR has been the performance of its stock, which is now up +68% since it priced its IPO on 2/7/2012 vs. an 11% gain in the S&P 500 for the same period.. CZR now has a market capitalization of $1.9 billion (with 125.3 million shares outstanding) with a 11.8x EV multiple based on 2012 EBITDA versus MGM at 10.3x and its regional peer average of 7.8x (please see Table 1). Part of the reason for this impressive performance is attributed to CZR's stock being included to the Russell 2000 and 3000 on 3/30/12. These indices typically add companies that had IPOs at quarter end. Relative Value: We continue to like CZRs 1st lien debt with our preference still being its B-4 term loan due 10/16 offered at $103.750 (YTM of 8.80%), while we think the longer dated term loans (due 1/18) are also attractive with the B-5 offered at $87.75 (YTM of 8.69%) and the B-6 offered at $91.000 (YTM of 9.01%). We also continue to prefer CZRs 11.25% 1st lien bonds which are now offered at $109.000 or a YTW of 7.66%. For those that cant own bank debt, the 1st lien bonds still have a decent yield of 7.66% (offered at $109.000). Full report: Caesars Entertainment Corp.: Update on Recent Flurry of Headlines Healthcare

David Common, CFA (1-212) 270-5260 david.common@jpmorgan.com Jared Feeney (212) 270-0699 jared.a.feeney@jpmorgan.com

On Tuesday, BMET announced that it had made a binding offer to acquire the global trauma business of DePuy Orthopedics, a unit of Johnson & Johnson, for $280 million in cash. JNJ expects the divestiture of this business will satisfy regulatory concerns associated with its $21 billion purchase of Synthes, which would make JNJ the global leader in the trauma device market. On Thursday, Moodys commented that LifeCells new competitor (Allergan's SeriScaffold product) is a credit negative. Allergan believes that its new mesh product, introduced at its R&D Day on March 28, the only silkderived bioresorbable scaffold, can achieve $100 to $250 million in peak year revenues within the $1.6 billion global market for soft tissue repair. Well be hosting our 2012 Healthcare Credit Workshop on Tuesday, April 17 in New York. See inside for the agenda. High yield healthcare has underperformed the broader HY market YTD (4.9% vs. 5.2%). Since our last publication on April 2, HY healthcare has underperformed the broader HY market by 5 bps. Full report: HY Healthcare Weekly: BMET, CONVAT, IAS, KCI Technology/Telecom

Thomas Egan, CFAAC (1-212) 270-2149 thomas.j.egan@jpmorgan.com Lina Kabaria, CFA (1 212) 834-5669 lina.p.kabaria@jpmorgan.com

Yields in high yield technology rose over the month of March but were fairly flat in the last week. Issuance and capital structure activities were light, despite a strong start to the stock market early in the week. Some technology companies, notably semi-conductors, that pre-announced earnings reported lower estimates. Telecommunications yields were fairly flat for the week, but slightly higher since the beginning of March, in line with the broader market. Overall, yields in the high yield telecommunications space are still ~90 bps tighter since 2011. Full report: Technology & Telecom Weekly: High Yield
9

Rishad Ahluwalia (44-207) 777-1045 Maggie Wang (1-212) 270-7255 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

AC

Collateralized Debt Obligations


A spate of new issue US CLOs push YTD supply to $8.1bn. With the pace stronger than our expectations we raise our FY forecast from $20bn to $30bn. This is still a fraction (30%) of peak 2007 volume, is comparable to 2004 levels, and in our view, represents a stable equilibrium for 2012 Part of our rationale for higher supply is that we see CLO funding cost somewhat declining longer term, as debt investors look to gain spread pickup in CLOs vs. ABS, Corporates, and other products At L+130bp, US CLO AAA primary spreads have met our L+125bp target. We revise our target to L+100bp, we think will be met by early 2013. The path to tighter spreads will not be smooth (macro concerns, capital regimes, regulation, etc). A case in point is this weeks stress in European peripheral sovereign funding markets We analyze relative value, bank risk capital, and new issue CLO economics to consider in more detail the primary CLO AAA outlook Interest has surged in the Structured Finance CDO (SF CDO) sector this year, as fast money searches for low-to-mid teen returns in the firstpay bonds, and as a possible recovery trade in the underlying US RMBS We observed $5.5bn of SF CDO BWIC volume in the first quarter alone. Market is also eying on Maiden Lane III, which has roughly $17.8bn assets in market value as of December We lay out the fundamental risks, potential trade strategies of SF CDO market. And provide a casestudy of collateral loss and Net Asset Value (NAV) of SF CDO first pay bonds. Yield depends on trade strategy and duration but can reach up to high teens Moreover, we compare the return and structural differences in SF CDO first pays with CLO equity, as both offer double digit return potential, high risk, high leverage, and no (or very low) credit rating

Exhibit 1: Global CLO secondary spreads & recommendations


Sector US CLO Super Senior AAA AA A BBB BB Euro CLO AAA AA A BBB BB 6-8 7-10 8-10 9-11 9-11 250 575 800 1350 2000 0 0 0 0 0 -30 -175 -400 -200 -150 25 150 500 500 650 Ov erw eight Ov erw eight Ov erw eight Neutral 3-5 6-8 7-10 8-10 9-11 9-11 140 155 300 500 775 1050 0 0 0 0 25 25 -50 -65 -150 -115 -75 -125 20 -10 100 165 200 225 Ov erw eight Ov erw eight Ov erw eight Ov erw eight Ov erw eight Ov erw eight WAL Current Change Change Change Recommendation YTD 2011 (years) Spread vs 04/05

Neutral Spread to Libor or Euribor (bp) for originally-rated categories Source: J.P. Morgan. Note: 1. Between November 21, 2008 and December 9, 2010, AA to BB spreads are estimated using simplified duration and other assumptions; thereafter, indicative spread levels are used. 2. AAA is weighted average pass-through spreads. 3. Our series represents mid-quality pricing in secondary trading. 4. WAL at issuance.

Exhibit 2: US CLO annual supply since 2001 including J.P. Morgan estimate for 2012 ($bn)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: J.P. Morgan.

Rishad Ahluwalia (44-207) 777-1045 Maggie Wang (1-212) 270-7255 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

AC

Exhibit 3: Selected AAA-rated global securitized product spread to Libor / Swap (bp)
Recent vintage CMBS (2010/2011) 220
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11

Secondary CLO

UK RMBS

Primary CLO

Primary CMBS

Jul-11

Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12

Source: J.P. Morgan. Secondary CLO based on generic super senior spread series from Exhibit 1.

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Secondary flows
A term curve has emerged in CLO secondary, with short AAAs (delevering/out of reinvestment/ <= 1.5yr WAL) inside L+125bp, or 15bp tighter than generic super senior. Short CLO AAAs offer relative value to comparable ABS and may offer potential upside, if amortization ends up quicker than expected (see our March 9th article).

At L+130bp, US CLO AAA primary spreads have met our L+125bp target. We revise our target to L+100bp, which we think will be met by early 2013. The path to tighter spreads will not be smooth. Risks include funding pressures out of Europe, macro concerns, capital regimes and regulation. That said, we believe our L+100bp target provides value cushion, though its possible very short duration AAAs in secondary end up tighter. Macro data has been mixed, but our economists believe China will experience a soft landing, and, have upgraded their Q1 US GDP projection from +1.5% to +2.5%. We analyze relative value, bank risk capital, and new issue economics to consider the primary CLO AAA outlook. Relative value Exhibit 3 illustrates CLO, CMBS and UK RMBS AAA spreads. These sectors have different risk/return profiles, but we make a simple consideration. US CMBS has been a good comp to US CLOs, with similar pricing, WAL and other factors. Late 2010/early 2011 vintage CMBS AAAs (144a, 20% par subordination) with WAL of just under four years trades at S+120, from as wide as S+200bp last fall. In fact, CMBS and CLOs tracked each other reasonably well in the 2011 sell-off, but CLOs are lagging more recently. In addition to collateral and stuctural differences, there are fixed/floating issues. Primary CLOs currently price 40bp wider than primary CMBS (public, 30% subordination, S+90bp) and 20bp than 2010/2011 CMBS (S+120bp), but the circa 20bp differential between 3M Libor and 4Y Swaps must be taken into account.

Revising our primary US CLO supply and spread forecasts


A spate of US CLOs push YTD supply to about $8.1bn. Recent pricings include Fraser Sullivan and Goldentree (AAAs at L+130bp) with others in the pipeline (Symphony, Sankaty, Oak Hill, Crescent, etc). Cerberus printed a $833mn Middle Market CLO this week. With the pace of supply coming in stronger than our expectations, we raise our FY 2012 forecast from $20bn to $30bn. Part of our rationale is that we see CLO funding cost somewhat declining as debt investors look to gain spread pickup in CLOs versus ABS, Corporates, and other products. If CLO supply does reach our $30bn forecast, this is still a fraction (< 30%) of peak 2007 volume, is comparable to 2004s level of supply (Exhibit 2) and in our view, represents a stable equilibrium of issuance for the year.

Rishad Ahluwalia (44-207) 777-1045 Maggie Wang (1-212) 270-7255 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

AC

Exhibit 4: Hypothetical bank annualized ROE (y axis) vs. primary CLO AAA spread (bp, x axis) (Basel IRB)
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% 1.0% funding 1.3% funding

Finally, CLOs price 10-20bp tight to UK RMBS. Our European ABS strategy team sees dollar UK RMBS spreads tightening to L+100-110bp over the next six months based on the lack of supply, strong demand from end accounts, and barring any significant pickup in sovereign or systemic risks out of Europe. A question of capital We consider a simplified bank ROE model based on funding cost, risk based capital, and other factors to evaluate bank buying in CLO AAAs. For all-in funding, we use 1.0% or 1.3% based on our US Bank analysts estimate of deposits, Fed Fund purchases, debt (etc). For capital, we use risk weights of 7% or 20%, the former based on the IRB approach (does not change under Basel III) and the latter on the risk weight floor proposed by the SSFA. Finally, we assume a 10% Tier 1 capital ratio, which fits within longer term Basel III guidance. Spread tightening may be limited given the demise of the shadow banking system and changes in regulatory capital, but CLO spreads down to L+100-110bp may make sense for some banks depending on funding and capital (Exhibits 4 to 5). For example, at a L+100bp CLO spread and a 1.0% bank funding cost, the ROE is 14% in IRB to 5% in the SSFA, all else equal. Other issues include Basel IIIs Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR, excludes CLOs). Our analysis is representative. Banks can achieve ROE targets by a number of means, such as buying assets with very low risk weight/high yield (e.g. sovereign debt), making more loans, reducing costs, etc but CLO AAAs would fit within a broader strategy. We doubt European banks and insurance will be a major player, given risk retention requirements and capital issues (CRD 122a, Solvency II). US insurance may play a part in CLO AAA spread evolution, though anecdotally we observe more interest in AAs and single-As at current levels. Our CMBS analysts observe demand from US insurance for CMBS super senior inside S+100bp to achieve double-digit ROE, depending on specific capital charges, funding costs, whether rate risk is hedged, etc. New issue equity economics CLO spreads are famously sticky to loans, but on a decade-long basis the relationship does seem pretty strong, apart from periods of extreme volatility when credit spreads in general trade at very distressed levels (top right corners of Exhibit 6). We expect that the general direction of loan spreads will continue to influence CLO spreads. We note our High Yield strategists maintain their J.P. Morgan Leveraged Loan Index spread will tighten another 20bp or so to L+575bp by the end of the year.

80 90 100 110 120 130 Source: J.P. Morgan. Assumes 7% risk weight, 10% core Tier 1 ratio, Libor (etc). ROE = net spread / capital charge (assuming 1,000 notional investment).

Exhibit 5: Hypothetical bank annualized ROE (y axis) vs. primary CLO AAA spread (bp, x axis) (proposed SSFA)
20% 15%
10%

1.0% funding

1.3% funding

5%
0%

-5% -10% -15% -20% 80 90 100 110 120 130 Source: J.P. Morgan. Assumes 20% risk weight, 10% core Tier 1 ratio, Libor (etc). ROE = net spread / capital charge (assuming 1,000 notional investment).

Exhibit 6: 2001 to the present: Regression of CLO AAA (top) and CLO BBB (bottom) to Leveraged loan spreads
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
0 250 500

AAA CLO spread (bp)

R = 0.59

750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000

BB leveraged loan spread (bp)

2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 0 400

BBB CLO spread (bp)

R = 0.74

800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800 3,200


Single-B leveraged loan spread (bp)

Source: J.P. Morgan, S&P LCD.

Rishad Ahluwalia (44-207) 777-1045 Maggie Wang (1-212) 270-7255 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

AC

As a twist in considering future CLO spreads, even if this doesnt mean spreads will gravitate here we try to see if our L+100bp spread target is economical for CLO creation at tighter loan spreads. Based on a generic CLO 2.0 structure (equity about 9.5x levered) and a 2% default rate assumption, we take our Funding Gap and project annualized equity return. We use a grid of AAA and asset spreads, as shown in Exhibit 7. Our current projection is 14.8%, assuming AAA spread of L+130bp and asset spread of L+425bp (the shaded box). To the extent asset spreads tighten by say 25bp, then our target of L+100bp implies a return that is still in the 14% handle (the outlined box). We may well be understating the return, as we did not adjust AA to BB spreads tighter, but the point is CLO issuance around our L+100bp target seems a decent balance between providing spread to debt investors, and creating a reasonable return to equity, if loan spreads do indeed tighten along the lines of our strategists predictions. Of course, investors may not buy CLO AAAs at L+100bp, but this will depend on alternatives in the future (Exhibit 3). Conclusion With primary CLO AAA spreads at L+130bp, our L+125bp target has effectively been met. We have discussed our revised L+100bp spread target based on relative value, risk capital, and the arbitrage to loans. One risk is a broader market selloff, another is if capital regimes make tighter spreads less economical.

Exhibit 7: Hypothetical annualized primary CLO ROE vs. asset spread (x axis) & AAA spread (y axis)
Asset spread (bp) AAA spread (bp) 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 350 10.8% 10.2% 9.5% 8.9% 8.3% 7.6% 7.0% 6.4% 375 13.2% 12.5% 11.9% 11.3% 10.7% 10.0% 9.4% 8.8% 400 15.6% 14.9% 14.3% 13.7% 13.0% 12.4% 11.8% 11.2% 425 17.9% 17.3% 16.7% 16.0% 15.4% 14.8% 14.2% 13.5% 450 20.3% 19.7% 19.1% 18.4% 17.8% 17.2% 16.5% 15.9%

Source: J.P. Morgan CLO Funding Gap. Assumes 2% CDR, 75% assets floored at 1.25% Libor, deal fees, expected losses and recent AA to BB primary spreads and generic CLO 2.0 structure.

Exhibit 8: Historical issuance of US HG SF CDO and US Mezz SF CDO ($bn)


300
250 200 150 100 50 0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mezz SF CDO HG SF CDO

Recovery trade in ABS CDOs?


Co-written with John Sim and Abhishek Mistry of J.P. Morgan non-Agency RMBS Strategy
Interest has surged in the ABS or Structured Finance (SF) CDO sector this year, as fast money searches for low-tomid teen returns in first-pay bonds, and as a possible recovery trade in the US RMBS market. We observed $5.5bn of SF CDO BWIC volume in the first quarter alone, mostly from a few large lists. The market is also eying recent Fed comments surrounding Maiden Lane III, which has roughly $17.8bn assets in market value as of last December, mostly SF CDOs1. It is also possible more supply gradually comes out from bank holders, depending on the evolution of capital ratios and more punitive risk weights for re-securitization products. As it is unlikely the vast majority of real money/other ratings-based investors will invest in SF CDO bonds in the future,
1

Source: J.P. Morgan

Exhibit 9: SF CDO monthly BWIC volume ($bn)


3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 3 SF CDO BWIC Volume ($bn) 2.5

1.0
0.5

0.7

0.0

0.03

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr MTD

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/maidenlane.html

Rishad Ahluwalia (44-207) 777-1045 Maggie Wang (1-212) 270-7255 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

AC

investors considering opportunities must recognize this technical risk when considering trade horizon. From a collateral performance perspective, our US RMBS analysts generally think home prices at a national level are at or very near the bottom. The risk to this view is if existing home sales decline even more from alreadydepressed levels. In this note, we lay out the fundamental risks and trends and provide a case-study of Net Asset Value (NAV) of SF CDO bonds. We also compare the return and structural differences in SF CDOs with CLO equity, as both offer double digit return potential, high risk, high leverage, and no (or very low) credit rating. SF CDO market update The SF CDO sector includes High Grade (HG) and Mezzanine SF CDOs, depending on whether the underlying structured finance was originally rated high-IG (AAA to AA) to mid-IG or sub-IG (Single-A to BB). About $778bn was issued between 1998 and 2009, with 62% HG and 38% Mezz (Exhibit 8). The majority of the underlying collateral is US RMBS, mostly Subprime and Alt-A, with some exposure to Prime MBS, CMBS, CDOs, and other sectors. We estimate the current outstanding market is about $340bn after considering paydowns and liquidations. About one-third ($110bn) of currently-outstanding SF CDOs are in Event of Default (EOD) (see S&Ps ABS CDO Event of Default reports). Specifically, the total outstanding of original AAA-rated bonds is about $230bn, most of which is now sub-investment grade. During the peak of issuance, we estimate the vast majority (c. 75%) of AAAs were bought by banks in both the US and Europe and by insurers/monolines. Home price forecast The fundamental rationale for considering SF CDOs after the extreme distress involves taking a view on home prices, as this drives valuations. Our RMBS analysts generally think we are at or are very near the bottom in home prices at a national level. They continue to project a 3% drop in national home prices from 2011Q4, or a 36% decline from the peak, to a bottom by first half 2012. Home prices are expected to drop 1.6% in 2012, consistent with net housing demand of roughly 1.6 million. Our base case forecasts national home prices to bottom in 2H and to increase 1.4% next year (Exhibit 11). A key risk to this view is if existing home sales fail to revive, while we are less concerned about immediate

Exhibit 10: Non-agency cash RMBS yields versus SF CDO first pay bond yields
25 ABX.HE.07-1.AAA ALT-A.HYBRID.FLT OPTIONARM PRIMEX.ARM Coupon

20

15

HG & Mezz SF CDO First Pay

10

0
Apr-09 Apr-10 Feb-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Dec-09 Dec-10 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Dec-11
2.2

Source: J.P. Morgan

Exhibit 11: J.P. Morgan home price forecasts


Peak to Peak to Benign Base Sev ere Positiv e Bullish -35.2% -33.8% -35.8% -33.8% -39.1% -33.8% -34.6% -33.8% -34.2% -33.8% Current -2.0% -2.9% -4.7% -8.0% -12.0% -1.2% -0.6% 2011 HPA -4.0% -4.0% -4.0% -4.0% -4.0% -4.0% -4.0% 2011 4.24 2.94 1.45 1.3 2012 HPA 1.3% -1.6% -4.7% -6.8% -9.1% 3.7% 5.8% 2012 4.74 3.13 1.64 1.6 2013 HPA 2.5% 1.4% 0.0% -1.3% -3.1% 3.1% 4.2% 2013 4.89 3.19 1.70 1.7 2014 HPA 4.0% 3.7% 3.4% 2.9% 2.0% 4.0% 4.3% 2014 4.99 2.99 1.50 2.0 2015 HPA 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 2015 5.05 2.86 1.37 Scenario Trough Current to Trough

Negativ e -36.9% -33.8% Depression -41.8% -33.8%

Base forecast assumptions Ex isting Home Sales (NAR, mm) Housing Inv entory (NAR, mm) Liquidations (mm) Net Housing Demand (mm)

Source: Case-Shiller Fiserv, J.P. Morgan, NAR. Note: Current is as of 11Q4. 2011-15 HPA is projected yoy % change of Q4 HPIs.

supply pressures as several government initiatives continue to chip away at shadow inventory. It is worthwhile noting that housing affordability reached a record high and rents keep rising. For example, buying at the end of 2011 is cheaper than renting for 135 of 257 largest metros, which has not been true for over a decade. Tight credit is still a hurdle. Non-agency market outlook The current outstanding stock of US RMBS is about $540bn for Alt-As and $390bn for subprime, including those packaged into SF CDOs ($340bn in outstanding). Secondary market activity remains vibrant with solid price

Feb-12

Jun-09

Jun-10

Oct-09

Oct-10

Jun-11

Oct-11

Rishad Ahluwalia (44-207) 777-1045 Maggie Wang (1-212) 270-7255 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

AC

performance in the first quarter (Alt-A returned 3-5% YTD, ABX 7-9%). The most successful recovery trade in US RMBS has been Option ARM bonds, due to the potential of lower default rates in the economy recovery (note: Option ARM represents about $160 or 28% of Alt-A sector). Nearly 70% of investors that our RMBS analyst surveyed in March 2012 believed non-agency spreads would likely grind tighter. Yet we expect tightening from current levels to be gradual, as yields have already hit 7-8% range. While RMBS assets are shifting into stronger, real-money hands from fast-money accounts, many investors are using this period of strength to lock in gains and prune portfolios. Moreover, it has become increasingly difficult to find double digit loss-adjusted yields. In terms of severity and delinquency, while 90+ day delinquency rates are declining, foreclosure rates are still at the highest since 2006. Also, the number of months in foreclosure increased dramatically, from 5-10 months before the financial crisis, to a record of nearly 25 months at this time. Meanwhile, loss severity has been rising for both Subprime and Alt-A, reaching 80% and 70%, respectively, as of April 2012. Strong home price appreciation (HPA) could bring down loss severities, but this is a secondary factor, as the most important determinant is still time in delinquency/foreclosure. Our view is severities should continue to rise as timelines extend further on loans that are difficult to liquidate. Many loans, especially in judicial states, have been through several unsuccessful rounds of mediations, and absent a short sale possibility, will see high liquidation severities. Case study: Collateral loss and NAV analysis for sample SF CDO first-pay bonds We present example loss and returns modeling for two sample 2005 vintage SF CDO first-pay bonds that recently traded (Exhibits 13 and 14). Bond A is in a SF CDO with a mix of HG and Mezz RMBS, while Bond B is in a HG SF CDO of poor collateral quality. For both portfolios, we model collateral default, loss and tranche writedowns of each underlying RMBS asset using three different HPA scenarios. Our Base HPA case projects -1.6% home price decline in 2012, with 1.4% growth next year, and the Severe HPA case assumes 6.8% home price decline in 2012 with another -1.3% drop in 2013, as shown in Exhibit 11.

Exhibit 12: Annual non-agency RMBS total returns Sector 2010 Return 2011 Return 2012 Return YTD Prime Fixed 29% 1% 2% Prime Hybrid 21% -3% 6% Alt-A Fixed 34% 1% 3% Alt-A Hybrid PT 15% -1% 4% Alt-A Hybrid Floater 27% -4% 5% Option ARM 20% -2% 7% Subprime LCF 23% -19% 5%
Source: J.P. Morgan

Exhibit 13: Collateral and NAV analysis of a sample SF CDO first-pay bond (A) under different HPA scenarios
Default Loss Writedown Market Value (% of portfolio) First Pay Bond Tranche NAV Discount to NAV (assuming $42 price) Discount to NAV (assuming $43 price) Collateral Severe HPA Base HPA Bullish HPA 18.9% 17.7% 16.6% 15.2% 13.6% 11.8% 61.0% 54.8% 48.5% 42.5% 48.2% 14.9% 12.2% 43.8% 49.7% 18.4% 15.7% 45.5% 51.8% 23.4% 20.5%

Source: J.P. Morgan Bondstudio, PricingDirect.

Exhibit 14: Collateral and NAV analysis of a sample HG SF CDO first-pay bond (B) under different HPA scenarios
Default Loss Writedown Market Value (% of portfolio) First Pay Bond NAV Discount to NAV (assuming $14 price) Discount to NAV (assuming $15 price) Collateral Severe HPA Base HPA Bullish HPA 35.5% 33.3% 30.8% 26.8% 24.1% 21.2% 65.1% 62.1% 58.4% 25.7% 16.3% 16.1% 8.4% 26.7% 17.1% 21.9% 13.7% 28.1% 18.1% 29.6% 20.9%

Source: J.P. Morgan Bondstudio, PricingDirect.

We also price each underlying RMBS under different HPA scenarios, assuming a theoretical 8% yield for Alt-A and subprime senior bonds, and a 16% yield for Alt-A and subprime subordinate bonds. 1) Principal Recovery: Both A and B portfolios will experience significant loss, 13.7% and 24.9%, under the Base HPA scenario (Exhibits 13 and 14). Generally, many Alt-A and subprime subordinates took over a 90% writedown and are now priced at a few cents on the dollar. Across all underlying RMBS bonds, Bond As portfolio will take a 32%-48% writedown depending on HPA scenario (Exhibit 13). This compares to 40% subordination beneath the first pay tranche,

Rishad Ahluwalia (44-207) 777-1045 Maggie Wang (1-212) 270-7255 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

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which indicates the tranche may get principal back under the Base and Bullish HPA scenarios. Bond Bs portfolio is modeled to experience a 58%-65% writedown, versus about 15% subordination. This means 41% to 49% principal recovery for bond B, versus mid-teens price trading currently. 2) Discount to NAV: We take the underlying prices to calculate portfolio market value and then determine NAV of the bonds after considering both leakage to senior collateral management fees and IO leakages of non-piking class A notes. For the first pay, unsurprisingly the discount to NAV or Yield is highly sensitive to the price and NAV, as both are relatively low to begin with. But based on our NAV analysis and trade color, both tranches traded between 14%-18% discount to the tranche NAV, under the Base HPA scenario. Even under a Severe HPA, both bonds A and B offer high single-digit to low teen discount to NAV. 3) Yield: Yield depends on trade strategy (as discussed below) and whether and when the discount to NAV can be realized, or the EOD or liquidation language of SF CDOs (Please refer to our October 19, 2007 note, Event of Default Language in SF CDOs). Take Bond B for example, if an investor can call the CDO to realize the discount to NAV in two years, the yield is c. 7.7% in the Severe case and up to 13.8% in the Bullish case. Over a three year period, the yield is 6% to 10%. But if the investor is willing to sit on the position and wait for recovery in the assets, the principal payback outlook based on our writedown and HPA scenarios will turn to approximately 17-20% yield over a seven-yield duration or 11-13% yield over a ten-year duration. These are only simple scenarios and investors should pick their own HPA outlook and model accordingly. Also, whether and when the discount to NAV can be realized will depend on trade strategy and the EOD or liquidation language (Please refer to our October 19, 2007 note, Event of Default Language in SF CDOs). Trading Strategies There are a few trading strategies that investors can consider in the current SF CDO market.

Exhibit 15: Average outstanding bond factors by vintage


80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004
Source: J.P. Morgan

AAA HG SF CDOs

AAA Mezz SF CDOs

2005

2006

2007

1) Front-pay bonds: Buy the senior tranche outright at a discount to NAV for a high single-digit to mid doubledigit yield. This will be a short-term trade, if investors are not holding to recover or call/liquidation. 2) Recovery trade in RMBS exposure: Gain access to portfolios, predominantly of RMBS risk (Alt-A and Subprime). Take a macro view on housing and do bottomup analytics on the underlying mortgage credits. 3) Liquidation: If the CDO is in EOD and the senior class can liquidate, direct sale and purchase the RMBS portfolio at bid side. Then hold the collateral of interest and sell the rest. If liquidation is not directly a right of the senior note, there may be strategic ways to unwind and gain access to the underlying by accumulating votes of the mezzanine notes. Liquidation usually requires 66.667% of each class voting separately, but documentation varies. 4) Call Strategy: If the CDO is not in an EOD and a majority vote is needed to call the CDO, acquire supersenior risk, and accumulate PIK-ing mezzanine and equity notes at steep discounts, to exercise the call. ABS CDO versus CLO Equity While of utterly different underlying collateral type and seniority, both SF CDO first-pay bonds and CLO equity offer little or no rating support, double-digit yields, high leverage, and an illiquid exposure. We explore risk and return profiles in our concluding thoughts. First, the underlying risks are very different. Simply, the crisis demonstrated that overleverage and other aspects

Rishad Ahluwalia (44-207) 777-1045 Maggie Wang (1-212) 270-7255 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC.

AC

(fraud) in a pool of individual risky borrowers turned out much worse as a whole than in corporates, especially as many loans in CLOs were issued by companies whose business were ultimately able to recover and were able to refinance/gain liquidity in the loan or bond market. Unlike the leveraged loan market, where default rates have declined from the peak to near zero levels today, the housing market hasnt bottomed and carries more uncertainty in both the strength of the recovery and its timing (though as mentioned, we believe it will bottom this year). Moreover, cashflow uncertainty is high in subprime and Alt-A floaters. Risks are not just tied to a housing recovery but also specific servicer behavior and advancing policies. Second, in terms of returns, CLO equity will likely offer higher and more stable carry (27% cash return in 2011, 16% 2005 to 2011), but potentially less price appreciation, as the current average price is already in the $70s, with strong bonds at par or above. On the other hand, SF CDO first-pay bonds rely on paydown as SF CDO structure unwinds and ultimately the recovery value of the underlying US RMBS assets. Third, structural difference can change the return profile. CLO equity captures the excess return of managed loan portfolios, thus equity cash return are certainly affected by manager trading and decision-making throughout the reinvestment period and even beyond (post-reinvestment period extension risk, etc). In contrast, SF CDOs are static portfolios and the recovery value depends on when and whether the senior note holders are able to liquidate. As a result, there is also significant vintage risk in SF CDOs and their underlying collateral, which is not as big an issue as in managed corporate CLOs. Finally, while we observed more real money investors coming into the CLO market in recent years, this trend is not likely for SF CDOs anytime soon. Unlike in the underlying RMBS bonds, there is probably a lower chance that real money will come in and buy SF CDOs at higher prices in the near future given headline risk around the sector and the very low credit ratings. Again, fast money buyers of SF CDOs should be wary of only viewing this trade as a short term price play.

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Economic summary
Last Fridays disappointingly small gain in March nonfarm jobs, combined with weaker March results for auto sales and the ISM surveys raised questions about the economys momentum. Nevertheless, our economists keep 2Q growth forecast at 2.5%, as previously. However, they did raise their 1Q GDP growth forecast from 2.0% to 2.5% as a result of the trade deficit coming in much narrower than anticipated in February. Other reports this week were lackluster. Specifically, initial jobless claims disappointed (+13,000 to 380,000 with a larger-than-normal 10,000 upward revision to the prior week), consumer confidence came in below expectations (University of Michigan sentiment declined from76.2 to 75.7, below consensus estimate of 76.5), and the NIFB index declined from a twelve month high (-1.8pts to 92.5). The February trade report showed the trade balance narrowing from -$52.5bn in January to -$46.0bn in February. There was a large drop off in imports during the month, with overall nominal imports down 2.7% and real goods imports falling 3.9%. Exports were somewhat tamer, with overall exports edging up 0.1% and real goods exports declining 1.0%. Even anticipating a bounce back in imports in March, it looks like trade will now be only a slight drag on overall GDP growth during the first quarter. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 7 increased 13,000 to 380,000 and there was a larger-than-normal upward revision (+10,000) to the data reported for the prior week. Claims have now increased 17,000 over the latest two weeks, and the four-week moving average increased 4,000 to 369,000 in the latest week. The recent continuing claims data looked more upbeat, with a sizable 98,000 decline in claims (to 3.251mn) reported for the week ending March 31. The four-week moving average for the same week reached a new best for the expansion of 3.334mn. The NFIB small business optimism index fell 1.8pts from a twelve-month high to 92.5 last month. The employment components softened, one of the few independent indicators that is consistent with the reported slowdown in job growth last month. Nearly all other NFIB indicators, including capital outlay plans and sales expectations, eased modestly as well. The University of Michigan sentiment index cooled from 76.2 in March to 75.7 in the preliminary April report, breaking the streak of seven straight monthly increases that ran through March. The decline in the headline was driven by the current conditions index which fell 5.4 points to 80.6. But the expectations index (which is a more reliable indicator of upcoming consumption) looked better, rising 2.7 points in April to 72.5, the highest reading since late in 2009. The separate Rasmussen Consumer Index has similarly showed some deterioration in sentiment lately. It has declined nine of the past thirteen days, and the average daily value reported so far in April was about 0.7 points below the average reported for March. The latest few data points (which reflect some data collected after the Michigan survey period) showed declines intensifying very recently, but the daily data can be very choppy so this weakness might be reversed in upcoming reports.

18

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., New York Daniel Silver (1-212) 622-6039 daniel.a.silver@jpmorgan.com

Economic Research Global Data Watch April 6, 2012

US economic calendar
Monday 9 Apr
Chairman Bernanke speaks on financial stability at conference in Georgia (7:15pm)

Tuesday 10 Apr
NFIB survey (7:30am) Mar Wholesale trade (10:00am) Feb JOLTS (10:00am) Feb
Auction 3-year note $32 bn

Wednesday 11 Apr
Import prices (8:30am) Mar 1.0% Federal budget (2:00pm) Mar Beige book (2:00pm)
Auction 10-year note (r) $21 bn Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks at conference in Georgia (8:20am) Kansas City Fed President George speaks at conference in NY (9:30am) Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks at conference in Georgia (10:30am) St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks in St. Louis (5:00pm) Fed Vice Chair Yellen speaks on the economy in New York City (5:30pm)

Thursday 12 Apr
Initial claims (8:30am) w/e prior Sat 360,000 PPI (8:30am) Mar -0.1% Core 0.2% International trade (8:30am) Feb -$51.3bn
Auction 30-year bond (r) $13 bn Announce 5-year TIPS $16 bn New York Fed President Dudley speaks on economy in Syracuse, NY (7:15am) New York Fed President Dudley speaks on economy in Syracuse, NY (11:00am) Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks in Washington, D.C. (12:30pm) Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota speaks in Minnesota (1:00pm) Fed Governor Raskin speaks on the economy in Los Angeles (3:30pm)

Friday 13 Apr
CPI (8:30am) Mar 0.2% Core 0.14% Consumer sentiment (9:55am) Apr preliminary 76.0
New York Fed President Dudley speaks on economy in Buffalo, NY (8:00am) Chairman Bernanke speaks on financial crisis in New York City (1:00pm)

Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks on economy in Oklahoma (12:30pm) Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks at conference in Georgia (12:45pm) Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota speaks in Minnesota (2:30pm)

16 Apr
Retail sales (8:30am) Mar Empire State survey (8:30am) Apr TIC data (9:00am) Feb NAHB survey (10:00am) Apr Business inventories (10:00am) Feb
St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks on the economy in St. Louis (3:30pm)

17 Apr
Housing starts (8:30am) Mar Industrial production (9:15am) Mar

18 Apr

19 Apr
Initial claims (8:30am) w/e prior Sat Existing home sales (10:00am) Mar Philadelphia Fed survey (10:00am) Apr Leading indicators (10:00am) Mar
Auction 5-year TIPS $16 bn Announce 2-year note $35 bn Announce 5-year note $35 bn Announce 7-year note $29 bn

20 Apr

23 Apr

24 Apr
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI (9:00am) Feb New home sales (10:00am) Mar Consumer confidence (10:00am) Apr FHFA HPI (10:00am) Feb Richmond Fed survey (10:00am) Apr FOMC meeting
Auction 2-year note $35 bn

25 Apr
Durable goods (8:30am) Mar FOMC statement (12:30pm) and press conference (2:15pm)
Auction 5-year note $35 bn

26 Apr
Initial claims (8:30am) w/e prior Sat Pending home sales (10:00am) Mar KC Fed survey (11:00am) Apr
Auction 7-year note $29 bn

27 Apr
Real GDP (8:30am) 1Q advance Employment cost index (8:30am) 1Q Consumer sentiment (9:55am) Apr final

30 Apr
Personal income (8:30am) Mar Chicago PMI (9:45am) Apr Housing vacancies (10:00am) 1Q Dallas Fed survey (10:30am) Apr Senior loan office survey (2:00pm) 2Q

1 May
ISM manufacturing (10:00am) Apr Construction spending (10:00am) Mar Light vehicle sales Apr

2 May
ADP employment (8:15am) Apr Factory orders (10:00am) Mar
Announce 3-year note $32 bn Announce 10-year note $24 bn Announce 30-year bond $16 bn

3 May
Initial claims (8:30am) w/e prior Sat Productivity and costs (8:30am) 1Q preliminary ISM nonmanufacturing (10:00am) Apr Chain store sales Apr

4 May
Employment (8:30am) Apr

19

Eric Beinstein (1-212) 834-4211 eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com

North America Credit Research 13 April 2012

Pages 20-25 are as published in Credit Market Outlook & Strategy dated April 13, 2012

Summary and Outlook

Credit Derivatives
CDX Indices (bp)
IG HY LCDX IG HY LCDX IG HY LCDX Spread 102 631 325 1w change 10 44 37

As discussed in the HG strategy part above, we are turning neutral on the HG corporate market. The current 200bp JULI level corresponds to CDX.IG trading at about 105bp according to the last 6m or 1y trading patterns. Investors have turned more cautious over the last couple of weeks. The moves in bonds, single name CDS, CDX indices and CDX index options all show that the first quarter optimism has faded and that hedging activity has increased. Both CDX.IG and CDX.HY are trading above their last 3m trailing average level for the first time since late last year. CDX.HY outperformed CDX.IG in the first part of the sell-off last week, but it underperformed this week. At the same time, IG implied volatility has increased by more than HYs and the volatility gap has not been that large since the beginning of the year. We believe that this situation makes it attractive to implement the HY/IG compression trade through call options. The sharp market sell off has driven CDS and CDX to underperform bonds, as usual in such market conditions as the credit derivatives are more liquid and tend to move first. Therefore, we expect CDS and CDX to outperform bonds as bonds catch up, unless the sell-off accelerates. However, the correction should be limited for CDX indices as their outperformance vs the bond indices was overdone at the end of March. An attractive way to trade CDX indices vs their corresponding bond indices is to use the iBoxx Total Return Swaps for the bond index leg. European spreads widened more than US spreads and implied volatility increased more in Europe. However, this is in line with their recent trading patterns and makes sense as the recent increase in risk is asymmetric across the Atlantic. CDX.IG and SP500 have traded about in line with each other in this volatile period. CDX.HY is thus obviously lagging equities.

Theoretical 1w change 106 8 615 37 402 5 Basis -3 16 -78 1w change 2 7 32

Source: J.P. Morgan

CDS-Bond Basis (bp)


IG HY IG HY IG HY Bond PECS 1w change 121 4 516 32 CDS Spread 1w change 110 9 481 42 Basis -11 -35 1w change 5 10

Source: J.P. Morgan

Investors turn more cautious


After the strong rally in the first quarter, the corporate credit market has turned more cautious since the beginning of Q2. Since the beginning of the month, CDX.IG is 5bp wider at 97bp and CDX.HY is 18bp wider (-$0.7) at 597bp ($96.1). The recent widening has been quite significant as for the first time since late last year both CDX.IG and CDX.HY are trading wider than their last 3m rolling average. Furthermore, the CDX indices implied volatility has also significantly increased thereby outlining the change in market sentiment. The moves in spreads and option implied volatility indicates that the market is increasing its hedging activity at the beginning of this quarter. As discussed above in the Strategy section, this more cautious attitude seems appropriate as the risk landscape has somewhat shifted, especially in Europe. However, many investors had reduced their hedges in the first quarter driving CDX.IG to levels not seen in more than a year and causing it to significantly outperform the cash bond market. Therefore, the recent market activity in credit derivatives looks more like a return to normal and a more cautious approach to the market rather than an outright bearish move.
20

Eric Beinstein (1-212) 834-4211 eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com

North America Credit Research 13 April 2012

Exhibit 1: CDX.IG has sold off significantly since the beginning of the Exhibit 2: The situation is similar for CDX.HY, but its recent moves month and is now trading above its last 3m average spread have been less marked than CDX.IGs
(bp) 140 120
600 (bp)

CDX.IG spread 3m av g

800

CDX.HY spread 3m av g

100 80 Oct-10
400 Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Source: J.P. Morgan

CDX options trading volumes have significantly increased over the past couple of weeks as some investors buy options to hedge. Implied volatility naturally increased as the market sold off this week and realized volatility increased. However, while the HY index has underperformed IG in the last couple of days, HY implied volatility has not increased by as much as IGs and the HY/IG implied volatility gap has increased back to levels not seen since the beginning of the year. On the week, IG implied volatility is up by 3% at 57% and in line with its trading pattern with the index (Note that this 3% increase in implied volatility for a June at-the-money put increases its price by 2.5c to 48.5c). HY implied volatility is up by 1% at 49% and is about 6% too low compared to its recent relationship with the index. Furthermore, realized volatility is 30% in IG and 35% in HY (up 2% and 1% on the week, respectively). Therefore, we find HY implied volatility to be too low compared to IG's.
Exhibit 3: CDX implied volatility increased as some investor have bought options to hedge, but HY volatility is quite lower than IGs
CDX.HY 3m Implied Vo l CDX.IG 3m Implied Vo l

Exhibit 4: HY implied volatility also looks low compared to the CDX.HY index level
80% 70% 60%

75%

55%

50% 40% Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov -11 Jan-12 Mar-12 500 550 600 650 700

y = 0.0009x - 0.0042 R 2 = 0.7096

35% Mar-11 May -11


Source: J.P. Morgan

750

800

21

Eric Beinstein (1-212) 834-4211 eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com

North America Credit Research 13 April 2012

Surprisingly, at the same time that IG implied volatility has increased more than HYs, the HY index has underperformed IG. CDX.HY has been underperforming for some time so far this year. However, HY outperformed IG last week during the first part of the sell-off as investors reestablished their hedges in IG. However, this week was different, with HY underperforming on both strong and weak days. Altogether, HY still looks cheap vs IG by about 35bp compared to the last 6m trading pattern (as of Wednesdays close).
Exhibit 5: CDX.IG underperformed HY in the first past of the sell-off, but outperformed again this week
CDX.IG RnR, lhs (bp) CDX.HY RnR, rhs (bp) 140 120 100 80 Mar-11
Source: J.P. Morgan

Exhibit 6: HY spreads look about 35bp too wide relative to its last 6m trading pattern vs IG
800 CDX.HY 5Y Spreads

900 800 700 600 500 400 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12

700 y = 5.01x + 85.57 600 500 80 100 R 2 = 0.94 CDX.IG 5Y Spreads 120 140

Therefore, given HY spread underperformance and its lower implied volatility relative to CDX.IG, we find that an attractive way to express the HY/IG compression trade given the HY index underperformance vs IG and the increasing gap in implied volatilities is to buy HY calls and sell IG calls. For investors who want to solely trade the volatilities, we believe that trading strangles in IG vs strangles in HY is the most attractive.

The performance across different credit products has followed the usual pattern seen in sharp sell-offs
Since the beginning of the month and the start of the sell-off, CDX indices have underperformed single name CDS which have underperformed bonds. First, CDX indices have underperformed cash bond indices in the last two weeks. However, this comes on the back of a strong Q1 outperformance of the CDX indices and is thus more a correction than anything else. It is thus not surprising that the softness in the credit derivatives has been more pronounced than on the cash side. Investors who have a view on the relative performance of CDX indices compared to cash indices might find iBoxx TRS an attractive way to implement the cash leg (see CMOS for more details on the TRS). As we discussed in past CMOS, CDX.IG outperformed the HG bond market quite significantly in the first quarter. This was essentially due to many structurally longcash bond investors reducing their hedges in CDX and some other investors going long risk using the most liquid credit instrument, i.e. CDX.IG. This trend was in place until the end of Q1. However, the momentum changed as soon as we entered Q2. As shown in the Exhibit below, CDX.IG has significantly underperformed JULI over the last two weeks (as of Wednesday close). Nevertheless, CDX.IG still looks
22

Eric Beinstein (1-212) 834-4211 eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com

North America Credit Research 13 April 2012

about 5bp tight compared to its recent trading pattern vs bonds (recall that we use our Risk n Roll index to perform such comparisons as it allows comparing levels through the CDX rolls). Therefore, our neutral view on the market and JULI at 200bp corresponds to CDX.IG at about 105bp.

Exhibit 7: CDX.IG had strongly outperformed JULI in Q1, but the momentum has changed in Q2
275 250 225 200 175 150 125 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 75 100 JULI spread (lhs) CDX.IG spread (rhs) 125 150

Exhibit 8: However, CDX.IG still looks about 5bp too tight compared to JULI
CDX.IG 5y Spread . 150 125 y = 0.45x + 22.23 R = 0.78
2

100 75 125

JULI spread 150 175 200 225 250

Source: J.P. Morgan

The situation is relatively similar for the HY market. CDX.HY outperformed bonds in the first quarter and has underperformed more recently. However, the relative performance of the two indices was not has dramatically out of line compared to what was observed in the HG market. We believe that this is partly due to the strong HY bond market issuance in the first part of the year, as investors did not need to use CDX.HY as a tactically long risk investment while waiting to find bonds, the ultimate place where they want to put their money at work. Actually, a one-year regression implies that the CDX.HY and JPMHY indices are now about in line with each other as shown in the Exhibits below (again as of Wednesdays close).
Exhibit 9: CDX.IG had strongly outperformed JULI in Q1, but the momentum has changed in Q2
JPMHY spread (lhs) 900 800 700 600 500 400 Jan-11
Source: J.P. Morgan

Exhibit 10: However, CDX.IG still looks about 5bp too tight compared to JULI
900 CDX.HY 5y Spread 800 700 600 500 400 y = 1.09x - 95.55 R = 0.90
2

CDX.HY spread (rhs)

JPMHY spread 400 500 600 700 800 900

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Comparing single name CDS to bonds, CDS underperformed bonds in the selloff, both in IG and HY. In IG, bonds currently are trading just 11bp wider than their CDS on average, as compared to 19bp wider at the start of the month. During that time, bonds widened by 3bp, while CDS widened by 12bp. The basis in IG has been range bound between -10bp and -30bp in the last six months and is currently closer to the tights of this range.

23

Eric Beinstein (1-212) 834-4211 eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com

North America Credit Research 13 April 2012

The basis in HY was trading in a narrow range over the past month until recently. In HY, bonds are on average trading 35bp wider than their CDS from 49bp wider at the start of the month. The HY basis reached -30bp earlier this week which was the tightest level since the first week of August last year when basis had turned positive for a very short span of time. The tightening of CDS bond basis is typical during the start of a selloff as CDS are more liquid than cash bonds and thus react faster to market volatility. The trend has been similar over the last few years, where CDS have underperformed bonds in the beginning of the selloff and bonds catching up later as the basis returns close to its normal levels of -20bp in IG and -50bp in HY. This is what we expect this time again. However, if the conditions were to deteriorate further it would likely result in bonds underperforming CDS in the second leg of the sell off, driving the basis wider or more negative as compared its fair value.
Exhibit 11: CDS underperformed bond in HG since the beginning of the month Exhibit 12: The same pattern was repeated in HY. This behavior is quite usual in a sharp sell-off

Source: J.P. Morgan

Europe vs US gap increases, but is in line with the recent history


The gap between iTraxx Main and CDX.IG has increased in the sell-off: the gap has narrowed to 28bp at the end of March and has now increased to 40bp. The indices have thus retraced their March compression and are back to end of February levels. However, as shown in the Exhibit below, the two indices have moved in line with their recent trading pattern and the spread gap has increased simply because the beta of iTraxx Main vs CDX.IG which is larger than 1. The current levels are in line with each other according to their last 6m trading pattern. We expect the two indices to follow the same pattern as long as the European risk remains the main driver of the markets. Also note that implied volatility has increased more in Europe than in the US. For instance, iTraxx Main implied volatility is up by 9% at 70%. This seems to make sense as worries have increased more about Europe than about the US.

24

Eric Beinstein (1-212) 834-4211 eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com

North America Credit Research 13 April 2012

Exhibit 13: The gap between iTraxx Main and CDX.IG has increased Exhibit 14: but the two indices remain in line with each other
Diff erence (rhs) CDX.IG

175 150 125 100 75 Mar-11


Source: J.P. Morgan

iTraxx Main 5Y Spreads

200

iTraxx M ain

y = 1.46x - 7.50 80 60 40 20 0 R 2 = 0.95 180

130 CDX.IG 5Y Spreads 75 95 115 135 155

80

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

CDX.IG in line with S&P500


Credit and equity have tended to trade in line with each other over the last 6 months and this has continued in the last two weeks. In the last 6m CDX.IG and SP500 have traded in a tight relationship (R-sq of 96% as show in the Exhibit below), with IG moving by about 1/4bp for each 1pt move in SPX. It is quite remarkable that the pattern has persisted throughout the very volatile markets of the last 6 months. This was again observed in the most recent market change in direction in the last two weeks.
Exhibit 15: Credit and equity have basically traded hand in hand in the Exhibit 16: The 6m regression is thus strong and CDX.IG and SP500 last 6m are currently trading in line with that trading pattern
160 140 120 100 80 4/8/11
Source: J.P. Morgan

1050 1150 1250 CDX.IG (bp - lhs) SP500 (pts - rhs inv ) 7/8/11 10/8/11 1/8/12 4/8/12 1350 1450

CDX.IG 140 120 100 80 1050 1150 1250 1350 SP500 1450 y = -0.23x + 410.71 R 2 = 0.96

25

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Week in review
High yield and leveraged loan summary
l

Spreads and yields High-yield bond yields increased 11bp to 7.63%, while spreads rose 20bp to T+670bp. Leveraged loan yields decreased 4bp to 6.66% and spreads increased 7bp to L+561bp. Five-year and 10-year Treasury yields decreased 12bp each to 0.89% and 2.05%, respectively. Performance For the week, high-yield bonds and leveraged loans returned -0.26% and -0.01%, respectively, while equities, as measured by the S&P 500, returned -0.73%. Treasuries and investment-grade bonds returned +1.15% and +0.45%, respectively. Year-to-date, high-yield bonds and loans have returned +5.51% and +3.98%, while 10-year Treasuries, high-grade bonds, and the S&P 500 have returned -0.70%, +2.62%, and +11.01%, respectively. New-issue activity Leveraged credit new issue activity moderated in this holiday shortened week. For high-yield, 8 bonds priced for $5.5bn, following 17 new issues totaling $7.6bn last week. Loan new issue volumes also decreased this week as 10 loans priced totaling $2.4bn, following last weeks 17 loans for $10.0bn. Year-to-date, high-yield bond and leveraged loan new issuance totals $118.9bn and $59.4bn. Fund Flows High-yield bond funds reported outflows totaling -$1.29bn this week (-0.9% of AUM, 37% ETFs), versus inflows totaling +$286mn last week. It was also the first outflow for the asset class in 19 weeks (last outflow in November), a period which saw a record $25.6bn move into the asset class (11% of AUM). After recording +$8.75bn, +$7.11bn, and +$4.55bn of inflows for January, February, and March, Aprils month-to-date outflows totals -$1.1bn. Despite outflows from bond funds, loan funds reported their largest inflow in 43 weeks. Leveraged loan funds had inflows of +$281mn this week, comparable to last weeks +$149mn inflow. This weeks inflow for loan funds was also the 11th in the years first 15 weeks, after seeing outflows in almost every week between August and December. Year-to-date, inflows into high-yield bond funds are +$19.3bn, versus $15.6bn for all of 2011, while inflows for leveraged loan funds are +$847mn, versus +$13.9bn of inflows for all of 2011. Default activity There was one new leveraged credit default this week. Reddy Ice filed Chapter 11 affecting $451mn in high-yield bonds. Year-to-date, 12 companies defaulted6 bond-only issuers, 4 loan-only borrowers, and 2 companies with bonds and loans outstandingaffecting $3.9bn in bonds and $2.8bn in institutional loans. The par-weighted high-yield default rate is 2.00% and the par-weighted loan default rate is 0.77%. The combined default rate for leveraged credit is now 1.61%, compared with 1.27% at the end of last year.

26

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield spreads and yields


l

High-yield bond yields increased 11bp to 7.63%, while spreads rose 20bp to T+670bp. Five-year and 10-year Treasury yields decreased 12bp each to 0.89% and 2.05%, respectively. By rating, CCC-rated bond spreads increased 35bp to 1154bp, while B-rated bond spreads increased 19bp to 703bp and BB-rated spreads increased 17bp to 487bp. The spread between the yields of bonds rated CCC and B is now 446bp, compared with the long term average of 676bp. The spread difference between bonds rated BBB and BB is now 141bp, compared with the long term average of 120bp.

Spread to worst
JPM Global HY 30-Dec-11 12-Apr-12 Change 1Q11 MTD YTD Week
Source: J.P. Morgan.

Split-BBB 436bp 396bp -57bp 17bp -40bp 12bp

BB 559bp 487bp -94bp 22bp -72bp 17bp

Split-BB 643bp 573bp -93bp 24bp -70bp 20bp

B 788bp 703bp -111bp 25bp -86bp 19bp

Split-B 974bp 854bp -144bp 24bp -120bp 25bp

CCC 1343bp 1154bp -235bp 47bp -189bp 35bp

754bp 670bp -110bp 26bp -84bp 20bp

Spread to worst
2000bp 1800bp 1600bp 1400bp 1200bp 1000bp 800bp 600bp 400bp 200bp
20-year average= 587bp 20-year median= 523bp Dec-90 1096bp Sep-02 1070bp Dec-08 1925bp

Yield to worst
21.0% Oct-90 19.0% 19.12% 17.0% Yield to worst 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0%
12-Apr-12 7.63% 12-Apr-12 670 bp

20-year average= 10.26% 20-year median= 9.95% Nov-00 14.80%

Dec-08 20.92%

Spread to worst

Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Spread to worst by rating


3600 bp 3000 bp Spread to Worst 2400 bp 1800 bp 1200 bp 600 bp 0 bp Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
BB B CCC

Yield to worst by rating


40.0% 35.0% Yield to Worst 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
BB B CCC

Source: J.P. Morgan 27

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield spreads
Spread between investment-grade and high-yield bonds
1400 bp 1200 bp Difference in yields 1000 bp 800 bp 600 bp 400 bp 200 bp 0 bp
12-Apr-12 352 bp

Spread between bonds rated BBB and BB


600 bp Difference in yields

20-year average= 392bp 20-year median= 350bp

500 bp 400 bp 300 bp 200 bp 100 bp 0 bp

20-year average= 120bp 20-year median= 101bp 12-Apr-12 141 bp

Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Spread between bonds rated BB and B


600bp Difference in yields 500bp 400bp 300bp 200bp 100bp 0bp
12-Apr-12 193 bp

Spread between bonds rated B and CCC


2000 bp Difference in yields

20-year average= 194bp 20-year median= 174bp

1750 bp 1500 bp 1250 bp 1000 bp 750 bp 500 bp 250 bp 0 bp

Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Spread between high-yield and emerging-market bonds


600 bp 400 bp 200 bp 0 bp -200 bp -400 bp -600 bp -800 bp -1000 bp -1200 bp

Premium to 10-year Treasury


2000bp 1800bp 1600bp 1400bp 1200bp 1000bp 800bp 600bp 400bp 200bp 0bp
Spread to worst Premium to Treasury

Difference in yields

12-Apr-12 -205 bp

Spread to worst

20-year average= -48bp 20-year median= -61bp

Dec-90 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11

Note: Emerging-market bonds are measured by the JPMorgan EMBI-Global Index. Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: J.P. Morgan; Bloomberg.

Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
12-Apr-12 670 bp 12-Apr-12 326.74%

Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
20-year average= 676bp 20-year median= 508bp 12-Apr-12 446 bp

935.0% 835.0% 735.0% 635.0% 535.0% 435.0% 335.0% 235.0% 135.0% 35.0%

Premium to Treasury

28

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Leveraged loan spreads and yields


l

Leveraged loan yields decreased 4bp to 6.66% and spreads increased 7bp to L+561bp. Five-year and 10-year Treasury yields decreased 12bp each to 0.89% and 2.05%, respectively. Split B/CCC-rated loan spreads increased 36bp to 1219bp, while B-rated loan spreads increased 7bp to 640bp and BB-rated loan spreads rose 4bp to 388bp. The spread between the yields of loans rated Split-B/CCC and B is now 568bp, compared with the 3-year average of 455bp.

Spread to maturity
JPM Loan Index 30-Dec-11 12-Apr-12 Change 1Q11 MTD YTD Week
Source: J.P. Morgan.

BBB 257bp 255bp -24bp 22bp -2bp 0bp

Split-BBB 324bp 296bp -25bp -2bp -27bp -5bp

BB 414bp 388bp -25bp 0bp -26bp 4bp

Split-BB 482bp 440bp -44bp 2bp -42bp 6bp

B 710bp 640bp -81bp 10bp -70bp 7bp

Split-B/CCC 1667bp 1219bp -537bp 89bp -448bp 36bp

NR 958bp 805bp -70bp -83bp -153bp 12bp

619bp 561bp -61bp 3bp -58bp 7bp

Spread to maturity
1400bp Spread to maturity 1200bp 1000bp 800bp 600bp 400bp Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
3-year average= 609bp 3-year median= 590bp 12-Apr-12 561bp

Yield to maturity
17.0% 15.0% Yield to maturity 13.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
Jan-12
3-year average= 7.85% 3-year median= 7.38% 12-Apr-12 6.66%

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Spread to maturity by rating


3000bp 2500bp 2000bp 1500bp 1000bp 500bp 0bp Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12

Yield to maturity by rating


Spreads as of 12-Apr-12 BB = 388bp B = 640bp CCC = 1219bp

BB B Split B/CCC

40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11
BB B Split B/CCC

Yields as of 12-Apr-12 BB = 5.00% B = 7.39% CCC = 13.07%

Jul-11

Jan-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Source: J.P. Morgan. Note: Leveraged loan spread and yield analytics are calculated using a forward curve. 29

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Oct-11

Apr-12

Apr-12

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Leveraged loan spreads


Spread between high-yield bonds and leveraged loans
300 bp 250 bp Difference in YTM Difference in YTM 200 bp 150 bp 100 bp 50 bp 0 bp Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
3-year average= 97bp 3-year median= 90bp 12-Apr-12 97bp

Spread between second lien loans & institutional loans


1600 bp 1400 bp 1200 bp 1000 bp 800 bp 600 bp 400 bp 200 bp Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
12-Apr-12 568bp
3-year average= 559bp 3-year median= 466bp 12-Apr-12 455bp

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Spread between loans rated B & BB


800 bp 700 bp Difference in YTM 600 bp 500 bp 400 bp 300 bp 200 bp 100 bp 0 bp Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
3-year average= 244bp 3-year median= 212bp 12-Apr-12 239bp

Spread between loans rated CCC & B


1400bp 1200bp Difference in YTM 1000bp 800bp 600bp 400bp 200bp 0bp Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
3-year average= 451bp 3-year median= 367bp

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Spread between loan-only and bond & loan capital structures


300 bp 250 bp Difference in YTM 200 bp 150 bp 100 bp 50 bp 0 bp Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
12-Apr-12 51bp 3-year average= 132bp 3-year median= 128bp

Spread between loans with and without Libor floors


200 bp 150 bp Difference in YTM 100 bp 50 bp 0 bp -50 bp -100 bp Jul-09 Jul-10 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
30
12-Apr-12 -84bp 3-year average= 29bp 3-year median= 31bp

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Note: Leveraged loan spread and yield analytics are calculated using a forward curve.

Apr-12

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Performance
Returns of various assets Year to date 2012
MSCI EM S&P 500 Russell 2000 JPM Euro HY JPM Global HY JPM EMBIG JPM Leveraged Loan FTSE 100 JPM Maggie IG JPM JULI IG 10-yr Treasury -0.70% 12.26% 11.01%

For the week, high-yield bonds and leveraged loans returned -0.26% and -0.01%, respectively, while equities, as measured by the S&P 500, returned -0.73%. Treasuries and investment-grade bonds returned +1.15% and +0.45%, respectively. Year-to-date, high-yield bonds and loans have returned +5.51% and +3.98% while 10-year Treasuries, high-grade bonds, and the S&P 500 have returned -0.70%, +2.62%, and +11.01%, respectively. By rating, CCC-rated bonds returned -0.55%, Bs returned -0.28%, and BBs returned -0.17%. Year to date, CCC-rated bonds have garnered a +10.02% return, compared with +5.62% for Bs and +4.43% for BBs. For loans, Split B/CCCs returned -0.82%, while Bs returned +0.02% and BBs returned +0.02%. Year to date, Split B/CCC rated loans have garnered a +9.92% return, compared with +4.30% for Bs and +2.81% for BBs. All but one of the twenty one industries in the J.P. Morgan Global High-Yield Index provided negative returns. Returns ranged from -0.52% for Diversified Media to +0.04% for Consumer Products. Year-to-date, Housing is the best performing industry, up 10.32%, while Utility is the worst performer, up 0.90%. For loans, eleven of the twenty one industries in the J.P. Morgan Leveraged Loan Index provided negative returns. Returns ranged from -0.51% for Broadcasting to +0.51% for Utility. Year-to-date, Diversified Media is the best performing industry, up 7.96%, while Utlity is the worst performer, -5.08%.
10-yr Trsy 16.96% -2.22% 1.56% -0.70% 1.15% JPM EMBI-Glbl 8.47% 4.86% 0.39% 5.27% 0.49% S&P 500 2.11% 12.59% -1.40% 11.01% -0.73% Russell 2000 -4.17% 12.44% -2.57% 9.54% -1.15% FTSE 100 -1.54% 4.78% -0.96% 3.78% -0.21% MSCI EM -18.37% 13.99% -1.52% 12.26% -1.15% CDXHY -1.91% 5.73% -0.54% 5.15% 0.10% CDXIG 0.38% 0.08% -0.22% 1.60% 0.03%

l
9.54% 9.46% 5.51% 5.27% 3.98% 3.78% 3.51%

l
2.62%

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Bloomberg. l

Returns of various assets


JPM Global HY 5.73% 5.87% -0.34% 5.51% -0.26% JPM Lev Loan 1.61% 3.93% 0.04% 3.98% -0.01% JPM JULI-IG 8.67% 2.14% 0.47% 2.62% 0.45% LCDX 0.04% 5.29% -1.13% 4.11% -1.44%

2011 1Q12 MTD YTD Week

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Bloomberg.

Returns of other J.P. Morgan high-yield and leveraged loan indices


US 6.96% 5.26% -0.26% 4.98% -0.22% Devel. Dev. BB 6.59% 8.69% 5.46% 3.95% -0.29% -0.20% 5.15% 3.74% -0.25% -0.15% HY Instl 8.49% 4.31% -0.17% 4.13% -0.16% HY 100 6.01% 6.08% -0.68% 5.36% -0.49% Liquid Bond 6.96% 5.79% -0.58% 5.18% -0.42% Liquid Second Loan Lien Loan 0.42% 5.71% 5.36% 3.99% 0.13% -0.03% 5.50% 3.96% 0.04% -0.04% Euro 1.70% 10.87% -1.27% 9.46% -0.71% Sterling 1.27% 11.49% -0.84% 10.55% -0.52% US$Europe 0.86% 8.89% -0.64% 8.20% -0.50% Euro EuroCurr. Agg. 1.46% 1.04% 11.16% 10.53% -1.23% -1.02% 9.79% 9.41% -0.70% -0.59%

2011 1Q12 MTD YTD Week

Source: J.P. Morgan. Notes: The European Currency Index includes euro- and sterling-denominated corporate bonds and returns are stated in local currency. The European Aggregate Index includes euro-, sterling-, and US dollar-denominated corporate bonds and returns are stated in local currency.

31

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield performance
Returns by industry and rating
Automotive 4.05% 6.33% -0.34% 5.97% -0.34% Housing -1.36% 10.91% -0.54% 10.32% -0.44% Broadcasting 6.43% 6.12% -0.28% 5.82% -0.23% Cable Satellite Chemicals 9.63% 5.90% 4.82% 6.30% -0.51% -0.29% 4.29% 6.00% -0.44% -0.20% Paper/Pack. 2.64% 4.59% -0.44% 4.12% -0.21% BB 6.56% 4.68% -0.24% 4.43% -0.17% Consumer Diversified Products Media 5.00% 0.64% 5.13% 5.67% 0.03% -0.37% 5.16% 5.28% 0.04% -0.52% Retail 5.26% 5.92% -0.19% 5.72% -0.22% Split BB 7.53% 4.57% -0.36% 4.20% -0.27% Services 4.89% 7.29% 0.03% 7.33% -0.10% B 6.12% 5.99% -0.35% 5.62% -0.28% Energy 9.68% 3.45% -0.33% 3.10% -0.29% Food & Financial Beverages 3.71% 6.83% 7.89% 6.77% -0.24% -0.37% 7.63% 6.37% -0.17% -0.31% Telecom. 4.09% 6.57% -0.57% 5.96% -0.49% CCC 0.26% 10.70% -0.61% 10.02% -0.55% Gaming Leisure Healthcare 6.52% 8.57% 6.69% 5.12% -0.23% -0.48% 6.44% 4.61% -0.16% -0.35% Trans. -3.58% 9.70% 0.01% 9.70% -0.11% Not rated 7.42% 4.68% 1.10% 5.83% -0.13% Utility 8.97% 1.51% -0.60% 0.90% -0.22% Defaulted -3.43% 3.47% -1.58% 1.84% -0.18% 2011 1Q12 MTD YTD Week

2011 1Q12 MTD YTD Week

Industrials Metals/Min. 6.76% 4.36% 4.61% 3.90% -0.31% -0.34% 4.29% 3.54% -0.26% -0.11% Split BBB 8.27% 4.79% 0.06% 4.85% 0.06%

Technology 9.32% 8.17% -0.35% 7.80% -0.20% Split B 3.43% 8.05% -0.51% 7.49% -0.40%

2011 1Q12 MTD YTD Week

Global HY 5.73% 5.87% -0.34% 5.51% -0.26%

Week
Consumer Products Services Transportation Metals and Mining Gaming Lodging and Leisure Financial Technology Chemicals Paper and Packaging Utility Retail Broadcasting Industrials JPM Global HY Energy Food and Beverages Automotive Healthcare Cable and Satellite Housing Telecommunications Diversified Media -0.10% -0.11% -0.11% -0.16% -0.17% -0.20% -0.20% -0.21% -0.22% -0.22% -0.23% -0.26% -0.26% -0.29% -0.31% -0.34% -0.35% -0.44% -0.44% -0.49% -0.52% 0.04%

Year-to-date 2012
Housing Transportation Technology Financial Services Gaming Lodging and Leisure Food and Beverages Chemicals Automotive Telecommunications Broadcasting Retail JPM Global HY Diversified Media Consumer Products Healthcare Industrials Cable and Satellite Paper and Packaging Metals and Mining Energy Utility 0.90% 7.80% 7.63% 7.33% 6.44% 6.37% 6.00% 10.32% 9.70%

Week
Split BBB Not Rated BB JPM Global HY Split BB B Split B
5.97% 5.96% 5.82% 5.72% 5.51% 5.28% 5.16% 4.61% 4.29%

0.06% -0.13% -0.17% -0.26% -0.27% -0.28% -0.40% -0.55%

CCC/Split CCC

Year-to-date 2012
CCC/Split CCC Split B Not Rated B 5.83% 5.62% 5.51% 4.85% 4.43% 4.20% 7.49% 10.02%

4.29% 4.12% 3.54% 3.10%

JPM Global HY Split BBB BB Split BB

Source: J.P. Morgan.

32

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Leveraged loan performance


Returns by industry and rating
Automotive 2.86% 4.42% -0.12% 4.30% -0.18% Housing 4.14% 4.82% 0.11% 4.93% -0.03% Broadcasting -3.28% 7.25% -0.42% 6.80% -0.51% Cable Satellite Chemicals -0.30% 1.68% 3.43% 2.78% 0.38% 0.00% 3.82% 2.78% -0.02% -0.01% Paper/Pack. 4.82% 3.36% 0.08% 3.45% 0.04% Split BBB 3.01% 1.54% 0.10% 1.64% 0.04% Consumer Diversified Products Media 3.09% -4.69% 3.09% 8.02% 0.16% -0.05% 3.26% 7.96% 0.15% -0.09% Retail 2.90% 3.87% 0.08% 3.95% 0.03% BB 2.41% 2.68% 0.12% 2.81% 0.02% Services 1.31% 4.99% 0.16% 5.16% 0.00% Energy 6.57% 2.43% -0.24% 2.19% -0.06% Food & Financial Beverages 1.17% 1.93% 4.97% 3.08% 0.26% 0.14% 5.24% 3.23% -0.03% 0.07% Telecom. 2.65% 3.16% 0.19% 3.36% 0.05% B -0.14% 4.34% -0.04% 4.30% 0.02% Gaming Leisure Healthcare 3.59% 2.07% 4.80% 3.50% 0.03% 0.12% 4.84% 3.63% -0.08% 0.03% Transp. 0.83% 3.99% 0.52% 4.52% 0.23% Utlity -2.53% -4.67% -0.42% -5.08% 0.51% Not rated 1.91% 5.40% 0.21% 5.62% -0.02% 2011 1Q12 MTD YTD Week

2011 1Q12 MTD YTD Week

Industrials Metals/Min. 2.18% 4.10% 3.35% 2.29% -0.46% 0.04% 2.87% 2.33% -0.18% -0.04% BBB 1.51% 1.83% 0.47% 2.30% 0.07%

Technology 2.95% 5.74% 0.18% 5.93% 0.04%

2011 1Q12 MTD YTD Week

Loan Index 1.61% 3.93% 0.04% 3.98% -0.01%

Split BB 4.81% 3.55% 0.17% 3.73% 0.02%

Split B/CCC -8.86% 11.09% -1.05% 9.92% -0.82%

Week
Utility Transportation Consumer Products Food and Beverages Telecommunications Technology Paper and Packaging Healthcare Retail Services Chemicals JPM Leveraged Loan Cable and Satellite Financial Housing Metals and Mining Energy Gaming Lodging and Leisure Diversified Media Industrials Automotive Broadcasting -0.51% -0.01% -0.01% -0.02% -0.03% -0.03% -0.04% -0.06% -0.08% -0.09% -0.18% -0.18% 0.23% 0.15% 0.07% 0.05% 0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.00% 0.51%

Year-to-date 2012
Diversified Media Broadcasting Technology Financial Services Housing Gaming Lodging and Leisure Transportation Automotive JPM Leveraged Loan Retail Cable and Satellite Healthcare Paper and Packaging Telecommunications Consumer Products Food and Beverages Industrials Chemicals Metals and Mining Energy Utility -5.08% 7.96% 6.80% 5.93% 5.24% 5.16% 4.93% 4.84% 4.52%

Week
BBB Split BBB BB Split BB B JPM Leveraged Loan Not Rated
4.30% 3.98% 3.95% 3.82% 3.63% 3.45% 3.36% 3.26% 3.23%

0.07% 0.04% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% -0.01% -0.02%

Split B/CCC -0.82%

Year-to-date 2012
Split B/CCC Not Rated B JPM Leveraged Loan 5.62% 4.30% 3.98% 3.73% 2.81% 2.30% 1.64% 9.92%

2.87% 2.78% 2.33% 2.19%

Split BB BB BBB Split BBB

Source: J.P. Morgan.

33

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Gainers and Losers


J.P. Morgan Global High Yield Index
Weekly Gainers Provident Funding Associates 10.125% Sr Nts 19 Open Solutions 9.750% Sr Sub Nts 15 Stena 7.000% Sr Nts 16 Mashantucket Pequot Tribe 8.500% Bds 15 NFR Energy 9.750% Sr Nts 17 NFR Energy 9.750% Sr Nts 17 Duquesne Light 5.900% Sr Nts 21 Duquesne Light 6.400% Sr Nts 20 Weekly Losers Reddy Ice 13.250% Sr Sec Nts 15 Stanadyne Automotive 12.000% Sr Disc Nts 15 River Rock Entertainment 9.000% Sr Nts 18 Jack Cooper Holdings 12.750% Sr Sec Nts (1st) 15 MGIC Investment Corp 5.375% Sr Nts 15 Radian Group 5.375% Sr Nts 15 Media General 11.750% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) 17 ONO Finance II 10.875% Sr Nts 19 Price 82.50 90.00 99.25 9.00 88.00 88.00 110.02 113.19 Price 12.00 82.50 64.00 96.50 77.00 71.00 91.00 85.00 Change 9.25 9.00 5.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.85 2.39 Change -28.00 -6.38 -6.00 -5.50 -5.50 -5.13 -5.00 -5.00 Industry Financial Technology Transportation Gaming/Lodging Energy Energy Utility Utility Industry Food/Beverages Industrials Gaming/Lodging Transportation Financial Financial Diversified Media Cable/Satellite Year-to-date 2012 Gainers Ahern Rentals Inc 9.250% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) 13 Open Solutions 9.750% Sr Sub Nts 15 Radian Group 5.375% Sr Nts 15 Hapag-Lloyd 9.750% Guar Nts 17 K. Hovnanian Enterprises 8.625% Sr Nts 17 Inversiones Alsacia 8.000% Sr Nts 18 Renaissance Securities Trading 11.000% Sr Bds 16 Choctaw Resort Development 7.250% Sr Nts 19 Year-to-date 2012 Losers Global Aviation Holdings 14.000% Sr Sec Nts (1st) 13 Residential Capital Corporation 6.500% Sr Nts 13 LBI Media 8.500% Sr Sub Nts 17 Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority 11.00% Sr Sub Nts 18 Empressa Distribuidora Norte 9.750% Nts 22 Reddy Ice 13.250% Sr Sec Nts 15 Petroplus Finance 6.750% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) 14 Patriot Coal 8.250% Sr Nts 18 Price 55.50 90.00 71.00 96.38 59.50 96.48 89.50 85.00 Price 30.75 30.00 26.00 72.75 57.00 12.00 38.00 75.50 Change 36.00 25.88 24.75 22.88 22.00 21.38 19.88 19.50 Change -48.25 -47.00 -29.13 -27.25 -25.00 -24.50 -21.50 -20.50 Industry Services Technology Financial Transportation Housing Transportation Financial Gaming/Lodging Industry Industrials Financial Broadcasting Gaming/Lodging Utility Food/Beverages Energy Metals/Mining

J.P. Morgan Leveraged Loan Index


Weekly Gainers Price Change 3.00 2.61 2.50 2.34 1.63 1.63 1.58 1.21 Change Industry Utility Technology Utility Technology Paper/Packaging Paper/Packaging Financial Diversified Media Industry Year-to-date 2012 Gainers Price Change 58.25 17.59 17.06 15.91 15.91 12.83 12.83 12.13 Change -29.92 -10.75 -10.50 -9.94 -9.50 -9.50 -9.42 -4.94 Industry Technology Healthcare Diversified Media Industrials Industrials Industrials Industrials Paper/Packaging Industry Diversified Media Utility Services Industrials Gaming/Lodging Gaming/Lodging Utility Telecomm. % change 155.1% 152.8% 128.8% 98.8% 85.2% 80.7% 80.6% 79.2% % change -53.7% -40.8% -39.0% -37.1% -37.0% -35.0% -33.9% -33.8% Terra-Gen Finance Co L+500 Term Loan 2017 99.00 Open Solutions L+212.5 Term Loan 2014 95.18 Topaz Power Holdings L+325 Construction TL 2014 92.50 Infor Global Solutions L+800 Initial Loan 2017 102.25 Kleopatra Acquisition L+250 Senior Term Facility 1 201693.38 Kleopatra Acquisition L+250 Senior Term Facility 1 201693.38 Swett & Crawford L+225 Term Loan (First Lien) 2014 82.83 SuperMedia L+800 Loan 2015 55.33 Weekly Losers Price Infor Global Solutions L+800 Initial Loan 2017 102.25 Sun Healthcare Group L+700 Term Loan 2016 94.90 Penton Media L+300 Term Loan (First Lien) 2014 78.46 Kion Group GMBH L+250 Facility C (USD) 2015 91.36 Kion Group GMBH L+250 Facility C (USD) 2015 91.36 Doncaster PLC L+400 Facility B2 2015 95.14 Doncaster PLC L+400 Facility B2 2015 95.14 Kleopatra Acquisition L+250 Senior Term Facility 1 201693.38 Year-to-date 2012 Losers Price Vertis Inc L+1175 Term Loan 2015 Texas Competitive Electric L+350 Term Loan 2014 Travelport LLC L+1350 Extended Tranche B Loan 2016 Hawker Beechcraft L+200 Term Loan 2014 Fontainebleau Las Vegas L+400 Initial Term Loan 2014 Fontainebleau Las Vegas L+400 Initial Term Loan 2014 Texas Competitive Electric L+450 2017 Term Loan 2017 Airvana Network Solutions L+800 Loan 2015 Year-to-date 2012 Gainers MTR Gaming Group Great Wolf Resorts Operating Bon-Ton Salem Communications Sears Holding Cheniere Energy Inc Headwaters Incorporated O Charleys Year-to-date 2012 Losers Education Management Exco Resources Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings RadioShack Corp McMoRan Exploration Quicksilver Resources Repsol YPF SA Inergy Ticker MNTG WOLF BONT SALM SHLD LNG HW CHUX Ticker EDMC XCO CCO RSH MMR KWK YPF NRGY 24.83 58.81 7.50 65.14 19.00 19.00 53.69 94.88 Price 4.77 7.33 7.71 5.11 58.85 15.70 4.01 9.84 Price 12.97 6.19 7.66 6.11 9.16 4.36 22.93 16.16

RJO Holdings Corp. L+675 New HoldCo TL 2015 75.00 Hawker Beechcraft L+200 Term Loan 2014 65.14 Technicolor L+600 Term B2 Facility 2017 83.75 Advanstar Communications L+225 TL (1st) 2014 79.20 Kion Group GMBH L+250 Facility C (USD) 2015 91.36 Kion Group GMBH L+250 Facility C (USD) 2015 91.36 Consolidated Comm L+375 Intial Term-2 Loan 2017 94.50 Consolidated Comm L+375 Intial Term-2 Loan (Ext) 201794.50

-2.00 Financial -1.96 Industrials -1.72 Consumer Products -1.60 Diversified Media -1.52 Industrials -1.52 Industrials -1.50 Telecomm. -1.50 Telecomm. Change 1.44 3.35 1.88 0.75 1.63 2.37 0.51 0.80 Change -0.89 -7.10 -1.16 -0.48 -0.45 -0.27 -0.31 -1.01 % change 28.1% 14.7% 13.2% 11.4% 11.1% 9.7% 8.9% 8.4% % chang -19.3% -14.0% -10.0% -9.9% -9.4% -8.7% -8.4% -7.6%

High-yield equities
Weekly Gainers SUPERVALU Inc Penn Virginia Resource Partners Alpha Natural Resources Great Wolf Resorts Operating Comstock Resources Hexcel Patriot Coal MBIA Weekly Losers Media General Centene Corp Commercial Vehicle MGIC Investment Corp Quicksilver Resources Cenveo Inc GFI Group Inc Lions Gate Ticker SVU PVR ANR WOLF CRK HXL PCX MBI Ticker MEG CNC CVGI MTG KWK CVO GFIG LGF Price 6.57 26.09 16.08 7.33 16.28 26.70 6.21 10.28 Price 3.73 43.70 10.39 4.35 4.36 2.82 3.40 12.21 Change 2.90 4.43 4.34 2.54 27.07 7.01 1.79 4.35 Change -15.02 -4.26 -4.89 -3.60 -5.39 -2.35 -11.75 -8.26

Note: Based on issuers within the JPMorgan Global High-Yield Index that have public equity.

Note: Based on issuers within the JPMorgan Global High-Yield Index that have public equity. 34

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield new issue activity


US dollar high-yield new issues:
Date 12-Apr-12 12-Apr-12 11-Apr-12 10-Apr-12 10-Apr-12 10-Apr-12 10-Apr-12 10-Apr-12 Issuer Intelsat Jackson FGI Operating Parker Drilling Solera Holdings (Audatex) SITEL LLC Constellation Brands El Paso Energy (Everest Acq) El Paso Energy (Everest Acq)

8 issues totaling $5.5bn


Issuance Maturity Yield Spread Rating 15-Oct-20 6.91 517bp B3/NR 1-May-20 7.88 629bp B3/B1-Apr-18 8.26 681bp B1/B+ 15-Jun-18 6.00 567bp Ba2/BB1-Aug-17 12.06 1111bp B1/B 1-May-22 6.00 401bp Ba1/BB+ 1-May-19 6.88 551bp Ba3/BB1-May-20 9.38 788bp B2/B Sector Use of Proceeds Cable and Satellite Refinancing Consumer Products Refinancing Energy Refinancing Services Refinancing Services Refinancing Food/Beverages General Corporate Energy Acquisition Finance Energy Acquisition Finance

Amt. Security Coupon $1,200.0 Sr Nts 7.25 $250.0 Sr Sec Nts (3rd) 7.88 $125.0 Sr Nts 9.13 $400.0 Sr Nts 6.75 $200.0 Sr Sec Nts (1st) 11.00 $600.0 Sr Nts 6.00 $750.0 Sr Sec Nts (2nd) 6.88 $2,000.0 Sr Nts 9.38

Non US dollar high-yield new issues:


Date Issuer Amt. Security

None
Coupon Maturity Issuance Yield Spread Rating Sector Use of proceeds

US dollar high-yield forward calendar:


Date 04/19/12 04/19/12 Issuer Amt. Carmike Cinemas Inc. $210.00 Physiotherapy Associates Holdings. $210.00

2 issues totaling $420mn


Rating B2 / B B3 / BSector Media Healthcare Use of proceeds Repay bank debt LBO Underwriter Macquarie JEFF / RBC

Security Sr Sec Notes (2nd) Sr Notes

Non-US dollar high-yield forward calendar:


Date Issuer Amt. Security

None
Rating Sector Use of proceeds Underwriter

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Weekly high-yield new-issue volume


$18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0
Non-US dollar new issuance US dollar new issuance

Weekly high-yield forward calendar


$6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0
Total Non-US dollar forward calendar Total US dollar forward calendar

29-Dec 5-Jan 12-Jan

19-Jan 26-Jan

2-Feb 9-Feb

16-Feb 23-Feb

1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar

15-Dec 22-Dec

22-Mar 29-Mar

5-Apr 12-Apr

1-Dec 8-Dec

22- 29- 5- 12- 19- 26- 2- 9- 16- 23- 1- 8- 15- 22- 29- 5- 12Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr

Source: J.P. Morgan. 35

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield new-issue activity


2002 2003 2004 2005 Volume (billion) $67.9 $151.6 $158.2 $106.1 Number of issues 260 504 583 375 By rating (as a percent of total volume) Split BBB 9.8% 7.4% 8.9% 5.9% BB 20.8% 20.6% 21.1% 21.6% Split BB 14.4% 9.3% 5.4% 8.3% B 51.6% 52.7% 44.0% 46.8% Split B 2.6% 6.0% 12.1% 10.0% CCC 0.3% 3.0% 7.0% 6.3% NR 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% By use of proceeds (as a percent of total volume) Acquisition finance/LBO 15.5% 13.5% 25.9% 38.0% General corporate 4.3% 7.1% 12.2% 11.8% Refinancing 73.4% 74.6% 57.4% 50.2% By security type (as a percent of total proceeds) Cash pay 99.1% 97.8% 97.7% 96.3% PIK/Deferred 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.9% Toggle notes 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% By industry (as a percent of total volume) Automotive 2.4% 3.2% 2.8% 5.7% Broadcasting 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% 2.2% Cable and Satellite 3.1% 4.3% 6.6% 6.4% Chemicals 3.2% 5.6% 5.8% 2.0% Consumer Products 2.9% 2.5% 3.0% 3.2% Diversified Media 5.3% 5.5% 2.9% 0.9% Energy 10.9% 10.5% 9.4% 11.9% Financial 2.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.6% Food and Beverages 5.4% 3.9% 2.7% 2.2% Gaming Lodging and Leisure 12.3% 5.8% 8.4% 5.4% Healthcare 9.2% 5.5% 7.1% 9.2% Housing 3.5% 2.8% 5.0% 4.9% Industrials 6.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.3% Metals and Mining 3.1% 3.4% 4.2% 4.8% Paper and Packaging 9.0% 7.6% 4.2% 4.8% Retail 1.9% 2.2% 2.8% 4.2% Services 4.6% 4.3% 3.3% 5.9% Technology 4.8% 2.5% 4.5% 7.3% Telecommunications 1.7% 9.1% 9.3% 6.7% Transportation 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% Utility 2.3% 8.9% 8.1% 3.2%
Source: J.P. Morgan

2006 $149.1 335 1.4% 29.3% 9.6% 38.8% 11.2% 9.0% 0.7% 44.4% 16.1% 38.4% 92.3% 4.8% 3.0% 9.0% 0.4% 6.3% 5.4% 1.7% 5.5% 9.5% 2.1% 2.5% 5.6% 7.1% 2.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 5.0% 11.0% 6.9% 1.1% 5.2%

2007 $147.9 321 6.5% 16.0% 7.9% 33.4% 21.1% 14.0% 1.1% 51.5% 12.0% 35.2% 87.7% 1.8% 10.5% 3.1% 1.6% 1.2% 2.3% 0.5% 3.4% 12.1% 5.0% 4.2% 3.7% 9.5% 2.5% 5.0% 8.3% 1.1% 4.5% 4.6% 4.9% 6.0% 1.1% 15.5%

2008 2009 $52.9 $180.7 115 408 2.5% 26.1% 13.1% 32.4% 7.5% 15.9% 2.7% 46.3% 10.9% 40.5% 88.5% 2.6% 8.9% 2.5% 1.2% 27.5% 0.9% 0.5% 1.5% 18.6% 0.0% 0.5% 9.7% 1.2% 5.4% 3.3% 3.3% 2.4% 3.4% 7.5% 4.1% 1.6% 0.9% 3.8% 9.3% 25.9% 19.8% 34.4% 6.9% 3.5% 0.3% 5.3% 15.9% 76.2% 99.0% 0.5% 0.4% 3.6% 2.5% 8.0% 2.8% 1.7% 2.1% 12.2% 1.7% 4.4% 7.4% 7.4% 4.0% 3.1% 4.5% 7.2% 4.1% 2.5% 2.0% 11.6% 2.8% 4.5%

2010 2011 1Q11 $302.0 $245.6 $107.7 653 510 214 8.5% 20.0% 14.8% 38.7% 10.0% 6.8% 1.3% 15.6% 15.0% 66.5% 99.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4.1% 1.6% 3.0% 4.2% 2.4% 1.9% 13.4% 8.7% 3.9% 4.0% 8.9% 5.0% 5.6% 5.9% 4.5% 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 6.3% 2.4% 3.1% 4.2% 28.2% 11.6% 38.4% 5.6% 10.4% 1.6% 22.1% 18.0% 55.3% 98.1% 0.5% 1.4% 5.6% 1.6% 6.3% 1.2% 0.8% 1.3% 14.7% 6.6% 2.5% 3.3% 11.1% 4.9% 3.7% 7.4% 4.3% 3.1% 3.1% 4.5% 6.9% 2.4% 4.5% 6.4% 30.8% 11.4% 35.9% 6.8% 6.1% 2.7% 13.1% 19.0% 60.6%

MTD YTD11 YTD $11.1 $99.0 $118.9 19 224 233 0.0% 23.8% 2.7% 62.7% 4.8% 6.1% 0.0% 40.7% 7.2% 52.2%

Last Current week week $7.6 $5.5 17 8 0.0% 31.7% 0.0% 68.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.8% 10.9% 39.4%

5.2% 5.8% 0.0% 17.7% 30.1% 22.5% 13.0% 10.6% 11.3% 46.0% 38.4% 46.3% 7.0% 6.6% 11.0% 9.5% 6.1% 8.9% 1.8% 2.4% 0.0% 12.2% 15.6% 23.5% 18.1% 17.9% 3.1% 63.0% 59.8% 73.4%

99.0% 100.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 4.4% 3.6% 3.5% 4.8% 1.7% 1.1% 17.9% 13.1% 2.4% 6.1% 0.0% 6.3% 2.0% 4.3% 2.6% 2.1% 5.3% 3.2% 6.8% 0.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 2.2% 6.5% 39.5% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%

97.5% 99.1% 100.0% 100.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 4.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.2% 3.5% 6.6% 4.2% 0.5% 0.8% 4.4% 0.0% 1.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.7% 1.6% 9.6% 12.6% 20.0% 24.2% 8.8% 11.9% 10.6% 3.2% 2.7% 0.0% 4.8% 5.5% 0.0% 7.3% 5.8% 0.0% 7.3% 7.1% 28.8% 3.9% 2.1% 4.0% 5.2% 4.1% 4.0% 5.2% 2.4% 0.0% 5.6% 1.9% 0.0% 4.7% 5.8% 7.0% 5.4% 2.9% 0.0% 4.3% 6.6% 7.9% 4.5% 0.4% 0.0% 2.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 52.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Annual high-yield new-issue volume


300.0 250.0 200.0 ($ bn) 150.0 100.0 50.0 31 29 0.0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD
46 1 10 69 73 43 47 47 126 100 95 68 181 151 152 158 149 148 106 53 119 302 246

High-yield market growth


1400 1200 Market size ($bn) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD
270 295 244 215 207 201 200 234 349 565 448 754 622 649 870 902 892 942 946 962 944 12901296 1229 1111

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Source: J.P. Morgan. 36

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Institutional loan new issue activity


US Dollar institutional loan new issues:
Date 4/12/12 4/12/12 4/11/12 4/11/12 4/11/12 4/10/12 4/10/12 4/10/12 4/9/12 4/9/12 Issuer Spirit Aero Systems ProQuest Key Safety Systems Aptalis PQ Corp EP Energy Sprouts Farmers Market Preferred Sands Veyance Technologies AMN Healthcare Services Amt. 550.0 150.0 75.0 200.0 200.0 750.0 100.0 125.0 50.0 200.0

10 institutional loans totaling $2.4bn


Maturity 7.0 yrs 6.0 yrs 2.0 yrs 5.0 yrs 2.0 yrs 6.0 yrs 6.0 yrs 5.0 yrs 2.0 yrs 6.0 yrs Ratings Ba2/BB B3/BNR/NR B2/B+ NR/NR Ba3/BBB2/B+ B2/B+ NR/NR Ba3/B+ Industry Diversified Media Diversified Media Diversified Media Healthcare Chemicals Energy Consumer Products Metals and Mining Diversified Media Healthcare Issuance Price 99.50 99.00 96.00 98.00 97.50 99.00 98.50 98.00 99.50 99.00 Yield 3.88% 6.25% 3.25% 6.00% 4.38% 6.75% 6.38% 8.00% 5.63% 6.25% Use of Proceeds Refinancing Refinancing Refinancing Refinancing Refinancing Acquisition Acquisition Other Refinancing Refinancing

LIBOR Facility Coupon floor TLB 300 0.75% TLB 475 1.25% Add-on TLB 225 0.00% 1st ov-liteTL 400 1.50% Add-on TLB 375 0.00% TL (Cov-lite) 525 1.25% TL (Cov-lite) 475 1.25% Add-on TLB 600 1.50% Incr. TLB 425 1.25% TLB 475 1.25%

US Dollar institutional loan forward calendar:


Launched 4/12/12 4/12/12 4/12/12 4/12/12 4/12/12 4/11/12 4/11/12 4/11/12 4/10/12 4/10/12 4/10/12 4/10/12 4/9/12 4/5/12 4/5/12 4/4/12 4/4/12 4/3/12 4/3/12 4/3/12 4/2/12 4/2/12 3/29/12 Issuer Amt. Facility Constellation Brands 250.0 TLB Seitel 275.0 TLB Osmose Holdings (Oaktree) 240.0 TLB Emdeon 1,221.0 TLB Emdeon 60.0 Add-on TLB TricorBraun 480.0 TLB On Assignment 490.0 TLB MegaPath 150.0 TLB First American Payment Systems 40.0 Incr. TLB Schrader (Madison Dearborn) 230.0 1st Lien TL Schrader (Madison Dearborn) 100.0 2nd Lien TL Blackboard 60.0 1st lien cov-liteTL Syniverse 925.0 TL (Cov-lite) Wendy's 1,125.0 TLB Global Tel Link 620.0 TLB North American Bancard 150.0 TLB MotorCity Gaming 581.9 TLB FGI Operating 330.0 TL (Cov-lite) Trident USA Health Services 175.0 1st Lien TL Trident USA Health Services 100.0 2nd Lien TL SLS Las Vegas 300.0 TLB Endurance International 535.0 TLB Plato Learning 240.0 1st Lien TL Coupon TBD 700 550 375 375 425-450 375 625 500 450-475 850-900 600 350 375 450 550 475 425 525 900 850 625 450-475

42 institutional loans totaling $15.1bn


LIBOR floor TBD 1.50% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.75% 1.25% 1.25% 1.50% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.50% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 2.00% 1.50% 1.25% Maturity 7.0 Years 6.0 Years 6.0 Years 6.5 Years 6.5 Years TBD 7.0 Years 6.0 Years 4.5 Years 6.0 Years 7.0 Years TBD 7.0 Years 7.0 Years 5.5 Years 6.0 Years 5.0 Years 7.0 Years 5.0 Years 5.5 Years 5.0 Years 6.0 Years 6.0 Years Ratings Ba1 / BB+ TBD / TBD TBD / TBD B2 / B B2 / B TBD / TBD TBD / TBD B3 / BB1 / B+ B2 / B B2 / B B2 / B B2 / B+ B2 / B+ B2 / B TBD / TBD Caa1 / B B1 / B+ NR / NR NR / NR TBD / TBD B2 / B TBD / TBD Use of Industry Proceeds Food/Beverage Refi Oil & Gas Refi Utilities LBO Healthcare Refi Healthcare Refi Paper/Packaging Dividend Technology Acq Telecom Refi Technology Dividend Diversified LBO Diversified LBO Technology Acq Technology Refi Restaurants Refi Technology Repricing Technology Dividend, recap Gaming/Lodging Repricing Diversified Refi Healthcare Dividend, recap Healthcare Dividend, recap Gaming/Lodging Project Fin Services Refi Broadcasting Acq

Sources: J.P. Morgan

Weekly institutional loan new issue volume


12.0 Weekly leveraged loan issuance ($bn) 10.0 8.0 6.0
4.2 5.5 3.4 3.2 2.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 10.4 10.0

Weekly institutional loan forward calendar


$20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 22- 29- 5- 12- 19- 26- 2- 9- 16- 23- 1- 8- 15- 22- 29- 5- 12Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr

4.0 2.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.2

2.5

29- 5- 12- 19- 26- 2- 9- 16- 23- 1- 8- 15- 22- 29- 5- 12Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr

Sources: J.P. Morgan

Source: J.P. Morgan.

37

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Institutional loan new issue activity


2006 $324.6 930 2.7% 27.1% 17.3% 30.8% 1.6% 1.3% 18.9% 0.0% 13.9% 18.6% 56.1% 6.8% 1.2% 0.9% 2.6% 0.0% 5.6% 1.1% 5.9% 5.3% 3.0% 5.6% 4.4% 1.1% 6.0% 5.3% 8.0% 3.6% 4.4% 2.3% 3.4% 3.3% 10.0% 9.2% 4.9% 2.8% 5.0% 2007 $388.3 915 2.7% 24.8% 24.5% 22.5% 2.8% 3.4% 19.0% 0.0% 11.7% 18.6% 63.7% 3.4% 0.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.4% 1.5% 5.6% 1.8% 7.0% 3.9% 1.0% 3.4% 6.3% 9.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 1.8% 3.7% 15.5% 5.0% 6.3% 5.8% 9.1% 2008 $72.4 187 3.0% 32.5% 16.3% 13.6% 0.9% 0.4% 27.0% 0.0% 3.0% 10.8% 74.1% 4.7% 4.2% 1.4% 1.8% 0.0% 3.0% 7.2% 2.6% 8.1% 0.7% 4.4% 7.9% 0.4% 5.6% 7.4% 5.5% 1.2% 5.9% 1.1% 4.4% 2.8% 7.3% 12.4% 4.2% 2.5% 5.3% 2009 $38.3 120 0.0% 26.1% 12.4% 26.3% 3.7% 4.5% 15.9% 11.0% 2.2% 45.2% 29.2% 4.0% 3.3% 14.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.7% 1.8% 5.4% 17.9% 4.4% 3.5% 4.7% 2.1% 9.0% 6.7% 10.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.5% 3.2% 3.3% 7.5% 6.3% 4.4% 1.1% 0.8% 2010 2011 $154.5 $229.3 368 487 0.1% 17.7% 13.2% 57.8% 0.4% 0.6% 9.1% 1.2% 5.7% 35.3% 39.9% 0.9% 4.2% 0.9% 12.7% 0.4% 1.4% 1.5% 3.5% 3.6% 5.1% 2.0% 2.6% 6.8% 7.7% 6.1% 13.1% 1.0% 8.0% 1.7% 2.3% 4.4% 13.4% 9.0% 4.7% 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 14.7% 12.8% 62.7% 1.8% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.6% 59.0% 31.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 7.1% 0.0% 4.0% 2.8% 2.1% 4.3% 3.3% 1.4% 4.2% 7.2% 5.9% 4.4% 15.0% 0.5% 6.8% 2.2% 2.4% 7.1% 8.0% 11.5% 3.3% 1.5% 2.1% 1Q12 $51.2 111 0.0% 20.5% 9.3% 65.6% 0.0% 0.5% 4.1% 0.0% 1.2% 54.6% 28.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 14.0% 0.0% 3.6% 1.6% 4.8% 3.2% 1.7% 4.7% 6.9% 3.7% 3.3% 2.5% 9.3% 2.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.9% 8.1% 20.8% 10.8% 3.8% 1.7% MTD YTD11 $8.3 $104.6 22 196 0.0% 27.2% 2.4% 39.5% 20.3% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 58.7% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 1.2% 10.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 6.7% 6.7% 1.5% 0.0% 26.9% 8.2% 0.0% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% YTD $59.4 133 Last Current week week $10.0 $2.4 17 10 0.0% 54.2% 8.3% 24.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 59.4% 35.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 4.2% 34.4% 31.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 Volume (billion) $57.7 $90.1 $154.3 $184.0 Number of issues 242 376 648 733 By rating (as a percent of total volume) Split BBB 7.2% 2.0% 0.7% 1.2% BB 51.7% 39.2% 27.0% 20.9% Split BB 12.5% 19.5% 11.7% 15.3% B 10.5% 23.8% 42.6% 37.9% Split B 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 1.0% CCC 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.9% NR 13.4% 12.0% 16.0% 22.7% Default 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% By use of proceeds (as a percent of total volume) Recapitalization 5.2% 12.5% 17.9% 19.9% Refinancing 51.8% 50.2% 35.3% 26.8% Acquisition 32.5% 29.4% 41.0% 46.8% General Corporate 5.1% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% Exit 3.9% 4.0% 0.4% 1.4% DIP 1.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.9% Other 0.2% 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% Unknown 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% By industry (as a percent of total volume) Automotive 1.3% 5.0% 0.4% 3.0% Broadcasting 2.9% 2.0% 1.8% 2.2% Cable and Satellite 0.6% 3.0% 4.1% 2.6% Chemicals 5.4% 6.7% 7.6% 6.2% Consumer Products 2.5% 3.1% 4.5% 3.1% Diversified Media 7.1% 4.8% 3.6% 3.5% Energy 2.5% 4.4% 4.0% 8.1% Financial 0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% Food and Beverages 8.3% 7.6% 5.1% 4.2% Gaming Lodging and Leisure 6.9% 4.6% 7.6% 7.9% Healthcare 8.8% 8.6% 6.7% 7.5% Housing 4.9% 5.2% 5.7% 8.5% Industrials 8.1% 2.4% 4.3% 3.1% Metals and Mining 2.8% 3.3% 2.9% 2.1% Paper and Packaging 4.8% 2.8% 4.4% 1.0% Retail 4.8% 5.3% 3.3% 4.6% Services 5.6% 7.8% 6.7% 10.8% Technology 5.1% 5.5% 4.5% 8.7% Telecommunications 5.3% 4.9% 7.4% 6.5% Transportation 2.5% 2.9% 7.5% 2.0% Utility 9.3% 8.9% 7.0% 3.5%
Sources: J.P. Morgan; S&P LCD.

0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 21.4% 9.5% 12.9% 8.3% 0.0% 61.2% 62.0% 68.2% 2.7% 2.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 6.2% 5.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 72.2% 55.2% 38.0% 17.7% 27.0% 41.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 7.7% 15.2% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 3.1% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 4.0% 4.1% 0.0% 6.6% 3.1% 0.0% 5.7% 1.6% 0.0% 1.4% 5.4% 0.0% 2.6% 7.2% 0.0% 5.8% 3.2% 0.0% 9.0% 2.8% 0.0% 6.5% 2.2% 0.0% 12.7% 8.9% 1.0% 0.6% 3.1% 9.2% 5.0% 2.6% 8.0% 4.3% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 7.1% 22.3% 6.0% 8.1% 6.8% 11.4% 17.9% 35.1% 2.4% 12.2% 17.6% 1.1% 3.3% 0.0% 1.6% 1.4% 0.0%

Annual institutional loan new issue volume


400
Institutional loan volume ($bn)
388.3

Monthly institutional loan new issue volume


60.0 Institutional loan volumes ($bn) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
2.1 18.8 10.910.1 25.8 13.516.2 13.7 12.5 10.9 10.7 9.4 14.1 7.3 18.3 16.1 7.7 5.5 8.5 9.5 9.7 6.3 49.9 44.3 38.2

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
28.3 56.7 59.8 90.1 43.5 34.1 57.7 184.0 154.3

324.6

229.3 154.5 72.4 38.3

25.5 19.4 8.3

59.4

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

YTD

Sources: J.P. Morgan; S&P LCD.

Sources: J.P. Morgan; S&P LCD. 38

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield supply and demand


Sources of supply and demand
2004 158.2 37.2 195.4 60.7 40.2 74.1 30.6 53.0 -2.1 256.5 -61.1 2005 106.1 112.8 218.9 38.2 38.7 54.2 38.1 55.4 -8.8 215.8 3.1 2006 149.1 30.1 179.2 27.4 49.0 57.9 30.4 56.9 5.5 227.1 -47.9 2007 147.9 50.7 198.6 46.3 63.8 32.0 19.2 58.7 5.1 225.2 -26.6 2008 52.9 55.9 108.8 14.9 35.5 26.9 26.5 57.7 5.3 166.9 -58.1 2009 180.7 150.2 331.0 22.7 45.6 36.8 13.1 68.8 31.9 218.8 112.1 2010 302.0 28.0 330.0 61.1 60.7 32.1 32.9 72.2 12.5 271.5 58.5 2011 245.6 38.4 284.0 73.4 51.3 47.4 34.7 79.0 15.6 301.3 -17.3 1Q11 107.7 3.5 111.2 14.2 5.8 11.7 29.4 18.6 20.4 100.1 11.1 MTD 11.1 0.2 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.2 2.5 -1.1 4.6 6.7 YTD 118.9 3.7 122.5 14.2 5.8 13.7 30.6 21.1 19.3 104.8 17.8 Last week 7.6 0.2 7.7 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 1.4 0.3 4.8 2.9 Curr. week 5.5 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.4 -1.3 0.4 5.2 New issuance Fallen angels Total Supply Calls Tenders Maturities Rising stars Coupon reinvestment @ 75% Mutual fund flows (AMG) Total Demand Supply surplus/(shortfall)

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Bloomberg; Lipper FMI.

High-yield mutual fund flows


36.0 24.0 12.0
1.7 11.0 5.2 2.3 5.2 3.4 -0.6 -3.2 10.9 6.5 11.1 3.9 21.6 19.7 32.9 31.9

Supply surplus / shortfall


112.1 120.0 100.0 80.0 58.5 47.6 50.3 60.0 43.2 48.2 40.0 17.8 21.0 17.1 12.5 20.0 11.1 3.1 0.0 -5.5 -6.7 -20.0 -17.3 -26.6 -40.0 -47.9 -60.0 -53.4 -58.1 -61.1 -80.0

Fund flows ($ bn)

15.9

1.8

5.5 5.1 5.3

0.0 -12.0

-2.1 -6.3 -8.8

($bn)

16.3 13.2

19.3 15.6 12.5

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Lipper FMI.

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD

Note: Includes fallen angels. Source: J.P. Morgan.

Four-week rolling high-yield mutual fund flows


3,000 2,400 1,800 $ mn 1,200 600 0 -600 -1,200 4- 11- 18- 25- 1- 8- 15- 22- 29- 7- 14- 21- 28- 4- 11Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr

Four-week rolling supply


$48.0 $40.0 $32.0 $ bn $24.0 $16.0 $8.0 $0.0 5- 12- 19- 26- 2- 9- 16- 23- 1- 8- 15- 22- 29- 5- 12Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Lipper FMI.

Source: J.P. Morgan.

39

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Leveraged loan supply and demand


Sources of supply and demand
2003 154.3 -83.6 70.6 6.3 31.0 37.3 33.3 2004 184.0 -92.9 91.1 3.2 53.0 56.2 34.9 2005 324.6 -110.7 213.9 7.5 93.0 100.5 113.4 2006 388.3 -149.1 239.3 -1.3 94.0 92.7 146.5 2007 72.4 -48.9 23.4 -8.6 23.0 14.4 9.1 2008 38.0 -90.4 -52.4 4.7 1.0 5.7 -58.1 2009 154.5 -142.1 12.4 18.0 3.0 21.0 -8.6 2010 229.3 -201.3 28.0 13.9 15.0 28.9 -0.9 2011 51.2 -40.2 11.0 0.5 5.8 6.3 4.7 MTD 8.3 -9.1 -0.9 0.4 1.5 1.9 -2.7 YTD 59.4 -49.2 10.3 0.8 7.3 8.1 2.1 Last week 10.0 -4.5 5.5 0.1 1.0 1.1 4.3 Curr. week 2.4 -5.5 -3.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 -3.9 Gross New Issuance Paydowns* Net Supply Retail inflows CLO issuance Total Demand Supply surplus/(shortfall)

Sources: J.P. Morgan; S&P LCD; Lipper FMI. *Note: Paydowns include amortizations, unscheduled paydowns, and bond-for-loan issuance.

Leveraged loan mutual fund flows


20.0 15.0 10.0 ($bn) 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-1.3 1.0 6.3 3.2 7.5 4.7 0.8 18.0 13.9

Supply surplus / shortfall


200.0 150.0 100.0 ($bn) 50.0 0.0 -50.0
-8.6 -14.6 2.3 -3.8 -58.1 33.3 34.9 9.1 -8.6 -0.9 2.1 146.5 113.4

-100.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD

2009

2010

2008

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Lipper FMI.

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Four-week rolling new-issue volume


$30.0 $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0
5- 12- 19- 26- 29- 16- 23- 18- 15- 22- 29- 5- 12Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr

CLO issuance

100 80 ($bn) 60 40 20 0
19.0 15.0 20.0 31.0 53.0

93.0

94.0

$ bn

23.0 15.0 1.0 3.0 7.3

2011
YTD

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Sources: J.P. Morgan; S&P LCD.

2012E

YTD
20.0

40

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield defaults
l l l l

There was one new leveraged credit default this week. Reddy Ice filed Chapter 11 affecting $451mn in high-yield bonds. Year-to-date, eight high-yield issuers defaulted affecting $3.9bn in bonds. In 2011, 21 high-yield companies defaulted for $18.5bn. The par- and issuer weighted high-yield default rates are 2.00% and 2.46%. Going forward, we continue to expect high-yield bond default rates to remain below their 4.2% long-term average over the next two years. Specifically, we forecast the default rate to end 2012 and 2013 at 1.5% and 2.0%.

April defaults
Date 12-Apr-12 Issuer Reddy Ice Debt ($ mn) 451.3 Industry Food and Beverages Rating at last issuance B1

Source: J.P. Morgan Note: Includes only US dollar-denominated debt from domestic high-yield issuers. * Indicates an issuer that has missed an interest payment and is currently in a 30-day grace period.

LTM default rate


based on par amount
18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan-94 Jan-95
Default rate Default rate including distressed exchanges

LTM default rate


based on number of issuers
Nov-09 16.32%
(incl. dist.exch.)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% Default rate 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97
12-Apr-12 2.00%

Mar-02 12.24%

Par-weighted default rate

Jan-02 10.24%

Nov-09 10.98%

12-Apr-12 2.46%

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10
42

Jan-11 2010

Note: Excludes distressed exchanges. Source: J.P. Morgan.

Note: Excludes distressed exchanges. Source: J.P. Morgan.

Default volume
94.6 100 90 80 70 56.0 55.6 60 50 28.3 40 22.0 24.9 22.9 22.922.0 30 19.4 18.5 15.1 20 8.6 7.3 10.3 8.2 7.24.85.28.0 7.9 5.0 4.73.4 3.2 10 2.5 3.6 3.9 0.30.11.10.61.0 0

Number of defaults
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 YTD
8 10 23 17 18 23 27 28 33 49 51 62 31 37 20 16 18 47 26 29 21 18 11 86

138 116 87 61 70

($bn)

21 21 8

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

YTD

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service.

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service.

41

Jan-12

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Leveraged loan defaults


l l l l

There were no new defaults in the institutional loan market this week. Year-todate, six loan issuers defaulted affecting $2.8bn in institutiona loans. In 2011, ten bank loan borrowers defaulted on $2.8bn in institutional banks loans. The par- and issuer weighted default rates for institutional loans are 0.77% and 1.10%. Going forward, we continue to expect loan default rates to remain below their 3.9% long-term average over the next two years. Specifically, we forecast default rates to end both 2012 and 2013 at 2.0%.

April defaults
Date None
Sources: J.P. Morgan, S&P LCD Note: Includes only US dollar-denominated debt from domestic high-yield issuers. * Indicates an issuer that has missed an interest payment and is currently in a 30-day grace period.

Issuer

Debt ($ mn)

Industry

LTM default rate


based on par amount
16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Default rate 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11
12-Apr-12 0.77% Jun-00 7.50%
Default rate Default rate including distressed exchanges

LTM default rate


based on number of issuers
Nov-09 14.61%
(including dist.exch.)

9.0% Issuer-weighted default rate 7.5% 6.0% 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% Dec-98

Dec-00 8.23%

Nov-09 14.18%

12-Apr-12 1.10%

Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10
10

Note: Excludes distressed exchanges. Sources: J.P. Morgan; S&P LCD.

Note: Excludes distressed exchanges. Sources: J.P. Morgan; S&P LCD.

Default volume
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
90.1

Number of defaults
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
93

60

($bn)

29.7 7.1 8.1 7.9 11.9 1.2 1.2 2.4 2.8

33

26

31 23 12 6 11 5 3 6

0.6

3.2

3.0

1.5

5.9

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

YTD

Sources: J.P. Morgan; S&P LCD.

Sources: J.P. Morgan; S&P LCD.

YTD
42

Dec-11

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield ratings upgrades and downgrades


2001 By number of issuers Upgrades Downgrades Upgrade/downgrade ratio By dollar volume ($bn) Upgrades Downgrades Upgrade/downgrade ratio 230 586 0.4 96.6 245.1 0.4 2002 194 597 0.3 72.6 391.3 0.2 2003 214 439 0.5 119.0 227.3 0.5 2004 280 330 0.8 166.8 196.8 0.8 2005 301 287 1.0 222.4 268.2 0.8 2006 547 496 1.1 2007 376 392 1.0 2008 238 470 0.5 147.7 506.8 0.3 2009 212 481 0.4 242.4 418.7 0.6 2010 387 258 1.5 365.6 216.4 1.7 2011 358 285 1.3 407.9 243.4 1.7 1Q11 113 100 1.1 130.0 85.0 1.5 MTD 12 16 0.8 10.8 10.3 1.1 YTD 125 116 1.1 140.8 95.3 1.5 Last week 9 14 0.6 4.9 5.8 0.9 Curr. week 5 2 2.5 2.4 0.6 3.7

351.6 266.5 446.3 333.5 0.8 0.8

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service; S&P.

Upgrades and downgrades (par amount)


600.0
Upgrades
507 446 391 352 268 334 267 148 242 419 366 408

Upgrades and downgrades (issuer)


700 600 500 400
216 243 141 95

500.0 400.0 ($ bn) 300.0 200.0 100.0 40 39 46 25 0.0 1996 1997

Upgrades Downgrades
425 446

586 597 439

Downgrades

547 496 376 392

470 481 387 258 358 285

245 109 127 98 95 97 80 69

222 227 197 167 119

300 200 100 0

73

259 237 230 223 194 214 147 135 139 114 95 93 72

330 280 301 287

238 212

125116

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

YTD

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service; S&P.

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service; S&P.

LTM upgrade-to-downgrade ratio (par amount)


2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09

LTM upgrade-to-downgrade ratio (issuer)


1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09

LTM upgrade-to-downgrade ratio

12-Apr-12 1.41

LTM upgrade-to-downgrade ratio

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-10

2011

12-Apr-12 1.12

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service; S&P.

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service; S&P.

43

Dec-11

YTD

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield rising stars and fallen angels


2001 By number of issuers Rising stars Fallen angels Rising star/fallen angel ratio By dollar volume ($bn) Rising stars Fallen angels Rising star/fallen angel ratio 29 49 0.6 24.1 66.4 0.4 2002 13 63 0.2 16.3 141.6 0.1 2003 13 43 0.3 13.4 39.7 0.3 2004 26 22 1.2 30.6 37.2 0.8 2005 36 25 1.4 37.8 112.8 0.3 2006 2007 27 22 1.2 30.4 30.1 1.0 24 30 0.8 19.2 50.7 0.4 2008 25 27 0.9 26.5 56.0 0.5 2009 15 58 0.3 13.1 150.2 0.1 2010 20 13 1.5 32.9 28.0 1.2 2011 30 12 2.5 34.7 38.4 0.9 1Q11 7 1 7.0 29.4 3 9.8 MTD 1 1 1.0 0.2 0.2 1.1 Last Curr. YTD week week 8 2 4.0 29.6 3.2 9.3 1 1 1.0 0.2 0.2 1.1 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service; S&P.

Rising stars and fallen angels (par amount)


150.0 125.0 ($ bn) 100.0 75.0 50.0 25.0 0.0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
66 51 56 38 33 35 30 28 3 142 150

Rising stars and fallen angels (issuer)


70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD
20 17 6 37 31 1818 13 13 49 44 39 27 29 2323 43 36 26 22 25 27 30 22 24 2527 20 15 13 12 8 2 30 63

Rising stars Fallen angels

Rising stars Fallen angels

58

113

40 37 38 3030 29 31 27 25 24 24 19 16 15 16 16 13 14 11 10 13 12 6 3

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service; S&P.

Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service; S&P.

Fallen angel bonds to be added to the J.P. Morgan Global High Yield Index
Approx. Glb Index weight 0.10% 0.11% lnclusion date 1-May-12 1-May-12

Issuer EDP Finance BV EDP Finance BV

Coupon 4.900% 6.000%

Maturity 1-Oct-19 2-Feb-18

Par ($mn) 1,000.0 1,000.0

Mdy Ba1 Ba1

SP BB+ BB+

Industry Utility Utility

YTW 8.4% 8.6%

STW 695bp 752bp

Note: If a bond is downgraded to high yield (fallen angel) it is added to the index subject to a seasoning periodit is added to index the first business day of the month closest to 90-days following the downgrade to high-yield. If a bond is upgraded to investment grade (rising star), it is immediately removed from the index. Sources: J.P. Morgan; Moodys Investors Service; S&P.

44

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

High-yield index profile


As of April 12, 2012 Summary profile of J.P. Morgan high-yield indices
Global Market value (bn) $813.3 Number of issues 1,664 Number of issuers 1,184 Yield to worst 7.63% Spread to worst 670 bp Current yield 8.29% Coupon 8.33% Yield to maturity 8.07% Maturity 6.45 yrs Yield to worst date 5.14 yrs Duration 3.82 yrs % of par 102.47% % of par (excl. def.) 102.73%
Source: J.P. Morgan.

Devel. Domestic $718.7 1,464 1,031 7.46% 654 bp 8.21% 8.29% 7.94% 6.47 yrs 5.08 yrs 3.79 yrs 102.82% 103.10% $662.8 1,365 960 7.44% 652 bp 8.24% 8.33% 7.94% 6.48 yrs 5.05 yrs 3.77 yrs 103.15% 103.41%

Dev. BB $339.0 595 397 5.77% 476 bp 6.99% 7.35% 6.21% 7.12 yrs 5.76 yrs 4.25 yrs 105.65% 105.65%

Instl $509.8 976 697 6.37% 544 bp 7.62% 7.97% 6.90% 6.76 yrs 5.22 yrs 3.91 yrs 105.43% 105.43%

HY 100 $159.6 100 100 7.77% 668 bp 8.14% 8.12% 8.00% 7.05 yrs 6.10 yrs 4.42 yrs 102.06% 102.06%

Liquid $231.2 200 200 7.43% 647 bp 8.16% 8.26% 7.88% 6.71 yrs 5.36 yrs 4.01 yrs 102.95% 102.95%

Euro 93.6 202 154 7.89% 734 bp 7.80% 7.60% 8.07% 4.69 yrs 4.12 yrs 3.26 yrs 98.67% 99.43%

Sterling US$ Euro. Euro. Curr. Euro. Agg. 12.6 51 43 9.36% 812 bp 8.97% 8.38% 9.43% 6.13 yrs 5.97 yrs 4.31 yrs 95.81% 96.79% $68.4 116 81 7.71% 674 bp 7.92% 7.84% 7.89% 6.17 yrs 5.52 yrs 4.05 yrs 98.95% 99.42% 139.2 246 189 8.21% 755 bp 8.01% 7.76% 8.37% 4.96 yrs 4.43 yrs 3.44 yrs 98.33% 98.93% 185.0 324 231 8.05% 732 bp 7.97% 7.77% 8.23% 5.14 yrs 4.60 yrs 3.52 yrs 98.39% 99.01%

Summary profile of J.P. Morgan High-Yield Global Index


Market weight JPMorgan Global HY Index by industry Automotive 3.46% Broadcasting 1.88% Cable and Satellite 4.26% Chemicals 2.86% Consumer Products 2.01% Diversified Media 1.87% Energy 13.36% Financial 9.66% Food and Beverages 3.76% Gaming Lodging and Leisure 4.64% Healthcare 7.45% Housing 5.40% Industrials 4.65% Metals and Mining 5.88% Paper and Packaging 4.21% Retail 3.46% Services 4.53% Technology 4.90% Telecommunications 5.85% Transportation 2.33% Utility 3.57% JPMorgan Global HY Index by rating Split BBB 8.21% BB 26.23% Split BB 13.91% B 31.55% Split B 8.88% CCC/Split CCC 9.06% Not Rated 0.80%
Source: J.P. Morgan.

Market value $28.2 $15.3 $34.6 $23.2 $16.4 $15.2 $108.6 $78.6 $30.6 $37.8 $60.6 $43.9 $37.8 $47.8 $34.3 $28.2 $36.9 $39.9 $47.6 $18.9 $29.0 $66.8 $213.3 $113.1 $256.6 $72.2 $73.7 $6.5

No. of issues 52 30 41 50 51 42 217 143 80 86 117 95 101 83 83 64 97 68 58 53 53 104 381 210 546 157 187 29

STW 546 bp 748 bp 598 bp 554 bp 603 bp 962 bp 615 bp 665 bp 630 bp 720 bp 672 bp 764 bp 619 bp 695 bp 627 bp 618 bp 742 bp 731 bp 679 bp 783 bp 726 bp 396 bp 487 bp 573 bp 703 bp 854 bp 1154 bp 1199 bp

YTW 6.38% 8.40% 6.85% 6.39% 6.78% 10.26% 7.23% 7.73% 7.07% 7.88% 7.59% 8.63% 6.95% 7.89% 7.29% 7.15% 8.16% 8.12% 7.76% 8.83% 8.58% 5.22% 5.91% 6.57% 7.84% 9.41% 12.30% 12.70%

YTM 6.61% 8.87% 7.38% 7.54% 7.76% 10.88% 7.50% 7.94% 7.65% 8.72% 8.15% 8.71% 7.47% 8.07% 7.75% 7.94% 8.95% 8.68% 8.13% 9.15% 8.75% 5.48% 6.32% 7.07% 8.38% 9.88% 12.65% 12.92%

Current yield 7.46% 8.83% 8.16% 7.95% 8.23% 10.09% 7.82% 7.62% 8.65% 9.06% 8.46% 8.68% 8.00% 8.14% 7.93% 8.27% 8.81% 9.00% 8.42% 8.75% 8.50% 6.59% 6.98% 7.66% 8.76% 9.61% 11.00% 10.52%

YTW date 4.97 yrs 4.92 yrs 4.69 yrs 4.60 yrs 4.19 yrs 3.68 yrs 5.91 yrs 5.70 yrs 4.20 yrs 3.76 yrs 4.71 yrs 5.53 yrs 3.98 yrs 5.10 yrs 5.84 yrs 6.33 yrs 4.05 yrs 4.59 yrs 5.20 yrs 6.46 yrs 7.41 yrs 7.84 yrs 5.79 yrs 4.67 yrs 4.52 yrs 4.73 yrs 4.26 yrs 4.10 yrs

Duration 3.91 yrs 3.64 yrs 3.71 yrs 3.64 yrs 3.18 yrs 2.86 yrs 4.44 yrs 3.93 yrs 3.28 yrs 2.87 yrs 3.64 yrs 4.12 yrs 3.22 yrs 3.94 yrs 4.26 yrs 3.79 yrs 3.18 yrs 3.39 yrs 3.96 yrs 4.24 yrs 5.15 yrs 5.23 yrs 4.29 yrs 3.69 yrs 3.45 yrs 3.53 yrs 3.09 yrs 3.13 yrs

Average rating Split BB B B Split BB B B Split BB Split BB B B B Split BB Split BB Split BB Split BB B B B Split BB Split BB Split BB

45

Peter D. Acciavatti (1-212) 270-9633 peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com Tony Linares (1-212) 270-3285 tony.linares@jpmorgan.com Nelson Jantzen, CFA (1-212) 270-1169 nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com Alisa Meyers (1-212) 834-9151 alisa.meyers@jpmchase.com

High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research Credit Strategy Weekly Update April 13, 2012

Leveraged loan index profile


As of April 12, 2012 Summary profile of J.P. Morgan leveraged loan indices
Leveraged Loan Market Value ($mn) Number of Loans Number of Borrowers Average Rating Margin Current Yield Years to Maturity Price Yield Spread DM Duration 446,628 750 616 Split BB L+381 5.10% 4.61 yrs 94.42 6.66% 561bp 569bp 3.86 Liquid 248,250 198 198 Split BB L+366 4.97% 4.92 yrs 93.43 6.65% 554bp 572bp 4.13 Second Lien 23,542 131 129 Split B/CCC L+656 8.28% 4.26 yrs 90.18 11.21% 1024bp 1011bp 3.30

Note: Yield, spread, DM, and duration are to maturity and based on forward curve analytics. Source: J.P. Morgan.

Summary profile of J.P. Morgan Leveraged Loan Index


Market Market weight value J.P. Morgan Leveraged Loan Index by industry Automotive 3.56% 15.9 Broadcasting 4.44% 19.8 Cable and Satellite 5.29% 23.6 Chemicals 4.07% 18.2 Consumer Products 2.40% 10.7 Diversified Media 4.46% 19.9 Energy 2.36% 10.5 Financial 4.59% 20.5 Food and Beverages 4.35% 19.4 Gaming/Lodg./Leisure 6.90% 30.8 Healthcare 12.89% 57.6 Housing 1.47% 6.6 Industrials 5.03% 22.5 Metals and Mining 1.26% 5.6 Paper and Packaging 2.03% 9.1 Retail 5.76% 25.7 Services 10.30% 46.0 Technology 9.51% 42.5 Telecommunications 3.14% 14.0 Transportation 1.71% 7.6 Utility 4.47% 20.0 J.P. Morgan Leveraged Loan Index by rating BBB 1.00% 4.4 Split BBB 4.63% 20.7 BB 31.22% 139.5 Split BB 15.31% 68.4 B 34.16% 152.6 Split B/CCC 3.80% 17.0 Not Rated 9.43% 42.1
Source: J.P. Morgan.

No. of issues 20 21 32 32 27 38 20 42 35 63 83 13 45 9 13 41 85 71 24 17 19 6 35 200 110 255 24 115

Margin L+360 L+393 L+356 L+331 L+408 L+394 L+391 L+408 L+323 L+379 L+379 L+418 L+335 L+360 L+420 L+372 L+386 L+402 L+399 L+356 L+438 L+234 L+280 L+351 L+373 L+412 L+396 L+425

Current yield 4.51% 5.21% 5.01% 4.36% 5.30% 6.49% 4.85% 5.55% 4.37% 4.98% 4.88% 5.57% 4.36% 4.66% 5.26% 4.80% 5.12% 5.09% 4.95% 4.85% 7.34% 3.05% 3.59% 4.47% 5.02% 5.47% 6.02% 6.07%

Maturity 4.66 yrs 4.53 yrs 4.80 yrs 4.67 yrs 4.45 yrs 3.82 yrs 4.32 yrs 4.33 yrs 4.47 yrs 4.31 yrs 4.93 yrs 4.85 yrs 4.49 yrs 5.29 yrs 5.15 yrs 4.86 yrs 4.15 yrs 4.94 yrs 4.96 yrs 3.81 yrs 5.12 yrs 4.37 yrs 4.95 yrs 4.95 yrs 5.11 yrs 4.34 yrs 3.75 yrs 3.93 yrs

Avg. price 99.03 88.74 95.47 98.88 97.10 81.61 98.20 91.97 99.31 95.06 98.83 96.35 97.18 99.85 99.56 99.13 96.35 97.67 99.07 95.82 69.42 99.62 99.87 99.44 98.96 91.97 77.78 89.50

To maturity (Forward curve) Yield Spread DM 5.30% 8.26% 6.49% 4.93% 6.33% 12.03% 5.76% 7.58% 4.81% 6.47% 5.50% 6.66% 5.73% 5.06% 5.84% 5.35% 6.36% 5.99% 5.58% 6.69% 14.18% 3.51% 4.10% 5.00% 5.54% 7.39% 13.07% 9.05% 424bp 726bp 539bp 388bp 529bp 1105bp 477bp 657bp 377bp 547bp 439bp 557bp 472bp 389bp 469bp 425bp 540bp 489bp 445bp 578bp 1304bp 255bp 296bp 388bp 440bp 640bp 1219bp 805bp 442bp 757bp 554bp 394bp 524bp 1091bp 491bp 662bp 369bp 553bp 448bp 546bp 483bp 399bp 479bp 432bp 535bp 504bp 467bp 567bp 1332bp 282bp 331bp 407bp 431bp 645bp 1232bp 806bp

46

J.P. Morgan North American Credit Research


383 Madison Avenue, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10179

JOYCE CHANG Head of Global Credit and Emerging Markets Research (212) 834-4203

H I G H G R A D E S T R AT E G Y A N D C R E D I T D E R I VAT I V E R E S E A R C H ERIC BEINSTEIN


eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . . (212) 834-4211, dominique.d.toublan@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-2370 miroslav.j.skovajsa@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5154 anna.x.cherepanova@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-3220

GLOBAL HIGH YIELD

AND

L E V E R A G E D L O A N S T R AT E G Y

PETER D. ACCIAVATTI
peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-9633, tony.linares@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-3285 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-1169 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-9151

ARUN N. KUMAR
Head of High Grade Research

DAVID COMMON
Head of High Yield Research

NORTH AMERICAN HIGH GRADE RESEARCH


AUTOMOTIVE eric.j.selle@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . . . . . (212) 270-9624, jenna.l.giannelli@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-9455 BASIC INDUSTRIES Chemicals and Metals & Mining robin.levine@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-1536, svetlana.x.goldenberg@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-9453 Home Builders, Gaming & Lodging susan.berliner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 270-3085, richard.j.degaetani@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-9524 Paper/Forest Products, Packaging tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5468, jonathan.j.mann@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-7239

NORTH AMERICAN HIGH YIELD RESEARCH


AUTOMOTIVE, SHIPPING eric.j.selle@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . . . . . (212) 270-9624, jenna.l.giannelli@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-9455 BASIC INDUSTRIES Chemicals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5468, jonathan.j.mann@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-7239 Homebuilding, Gaming & Lodging susan.berliner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 270-3085, richard.j.degaetani@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-9524 Metals & Mining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . dave.adam.katz@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-4593, bayina.bashtaeva@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-1372 Paper/Forest Products, Packaging tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5468, jonathan.j.mann@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-7239

BANKS, FINANCE AND SECURITIES COMPANIES kabir.x.caprihan@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-5613, matthew.hughart@jpmorgan.com . . (212) 270-4584 CONSUMER PRODUCTS virginia.chambless@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5481, crutcher.reiss@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-1682 ELECTRIC UTILITIES AND POWER GENERATION susan.voorhees@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-5200, larry.liou@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . . . . (212) 834-9455 ENERGY, PIPELINES, MLPS robin.levine@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-1536, svetlana.x.goldenberg@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-9453 HEALTHCARE arun.n.kumar@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5423, brett.g.gibson@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-7484 INSURANCE arun.n.kumar@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5423, brett.g.gibson@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-7484 MANUFACTURING, SERVICES Aerospace/Defense virginia.chambless@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5481, crutcher.reiss@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-1682 Manufacturing and Industrials virginia.chambless@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5481, crutcher.reiss@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-1682 REITS mark.streeter@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5086,, nicholas.j.northington@jpmorgan.com .(212) 834-5237 RETAIL virginia.chambless@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5481, crutcher.reiss@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-1682 TECHNOLOGY/TELECOMMUNICATION, CABLE AND MEDIA Technology brian.m.turner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 834-4035, monish.m.desai@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-4079 Telecommunication Services brian.m.turner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 834-4035, monish.m.desai@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-4079 Media & Entertainment michael.pace@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-6530, arjun.c.chandar@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-6797 TRANSPORTATION Airlines/EETCs/Aircraft/Rails/Freight mark.streeter@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5086, nicholas.j.northington@jpmorgan.com .(212) 834-5237

FINANCE AND SECURITIES COMPANIES dave.adam.katz@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-4593, bayina.bashtaeva@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-1372 CONSUMER PRODUCTS, FOOD AND RESTAURANTS carla.casella@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-6798, paul.a.simenauer@jpmorgan.com . . (212) 270-6861 ELECTRIC UTILITIES AND POWER GENERATION dave.adam.katz@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-4593, bayina.bashtaeva@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-1372 ENERGY gregg.w.brody@jpmorgan.com . . . . (212) 834-5997, jason.homler@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-9405 HEALTHCARE david.common@jpmorgan.com . . . . (212) 270-5260, jared.a.feeney@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 270-0699

MANUFACTURING, SERVICES Aerospace/Defense, Industrials, Services yilma.abebe@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-3265, ryan.p.dean@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-9566 GAMING, LODGING, LEISURE Gaming, Lodging susan.berliner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 270-3085, richard.j.degaetani@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-9524 Leisure michael.pace@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-6530, arjun.c.chandar@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-6797 RETAIL carla.casella@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-6798, paul.a.simenauer@jpmorgan.com . . (212) 270-6861 TECHNOLOGY/TELECOMMUNICATION, CABLE AND MEDIA Technology/Telecommunication Services thomas.j.egan@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-2149, lina.p.kabaria@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5669 Cable/Media michael.pace@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-6530, arjun.c.chandar@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-6797 Broadcasting/Publishing avi.a.steiner@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-5512, kenneth.r.norden@jpmorgan.com . . (212) 270-1564 TRANSPORTATION Airlines/EETCs/Aircraft/Rails/Freight mark.streeter@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5086, nicholas.j.northington@jpmorgan.com .(212) 834-5237

North America Credit Research

Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Conflict of Interest: This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of J.P. Morgan credit research analysts. Research analysts routinely consult with J.P. Morgan trading desk personnel in formulating views, opinions and recommendations in preparing research. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and report(s). Therefore, this research may not be independent from the proprietary interests of J.P. Morgan trading desks which may conflict with your interests. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, trading desk and firm revenues and competitive factors. As a general matter, J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates normally make a market and trade as principal in fixed income securities discussed in research reports.

Important Disclosures
Explanation of Credit Research Ratings: Ratings System: J.P. Morgan uses the following sector/issuer portfolio weightings: Overweight (over the next three months, the recommended risk position is expected to outperform the relevant index, sector, or benchmark), Neutral (over the next three months, the recommended risk position is expected to perform in line with the relevant index, sector, or benchmark), and Underweight (over the next three months, the recommended risk position is expected to underperform the relevant index, sector, or benchmark). J.P. Morgans Emerging Market research uses a rating of Marketweight, which is equivalent to a Neutral rating. Valuation & Methodology: In J.P. Morgans credit research, we assign a rating to each company (Overweight, Underweight or Neutral) based on our credit view of the company and the relative value of its financial instruments, taking into account the ratings assigned to the company by credit rating agencies and the market prices for the companys securities. Our credit view of a company is based upon our opinion as to whether the company will be able service its debt obligations when they become due and payable. We assess this by analyzing, among other things, the companys credit position using standard credit ratios such as cash flow to debt and fixed charge coverage (including and excluding capital investment). We also analyze the companys ability to generate cash flow by reviewing standard operational measures for comparable companies in the sector, such as revenue and earnings growth rates, margins, and the composition of the companys balance sheet relative to the operational leverage in its business.

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