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M*E*M*O*R*A*N*D*U*M

TO: DavidGillforCongress,IL13 FROM: DonnaVictoria,VictoriaResearch&Consulting DATE: April18,2012 Thismemorandumreportsonthefindingsofapolltakenin13thCongressionalDistrictofIllinoisApril1113, 2012.Fourhundredregistered,likelyvotersforNovember2012wereinterviewed.Thepollwasdesignedtoassessthe strengthsandweaknessesofDavidGillastheDemocraticnominee,atatimewhentheRepublicannomineewasyetto bedecidedfollowingTimJohnsonsannouncementofhisretirement.Allquestionsaboutthismemoshouldbe referredtoDonnaVictoria(donnaV@victoriaresearch.comor3015659500). Whatisevidentfromournewresultsisthatthisraceiswideopen,withDemocraticnomineeDr.DavidGill alreadyholdingasignificantleadovertwoprominentRepublicancandidates.Keyresultsareasfollows: ThemostimportantfindingisthatDavidGillhasasignificantbaseofsupportnomatterwhichcandidatethe Republicanseventuallyputforth.Inaheadtoheadtrialheat,GillbeatsJerryClarkehandily,40%to33%. WhenpairedagainstRodneyDavis,Gillhasadoubledigitlead:41%to31. The13thDistrictisanentirelynewdistrictinCentralIllinois;incumbentTimJohnson(R),whorecently announcedhewouldnotrunforthisseatafterall,currentlyrepresentsfewerthanathirdofthevotersinthe new13th.Itstandstoreasonthatthiscreatesanentirelynewplayingfieldforthisopenseatrace,withtwokey pointsinGillsfavor:hispreviouscampaignsgivehimasolidbaseintheold15thC.D.portion,wherehereceives over50%ofthevote,andtheRepublicansareengagedinadivisiveinsiderspatinwhichpartychairmenwill nameacandidate,sinceJohnsonwaiteduntilaftertheprimarytoannouncehisintentions,thusdepriving RepublicanPrimaryvotersofanysayintheirnominee. PresidentObamawonthispartofIllinoishandily,by11percentagepoints,in2008.Atpresent,theraceismuch closerfor2012,withthePresidentleadingMittRomneyby4percentagepointsinthenew13th.ThePresident willwininIllinoisandcanwininthe13thdistrict,butatpresentDavidGillisnotbenefittingfromanyoverlyrosy coattailsscenarioinvolvingthepresidentialraceGillhasearnedhisleadonhisownterms. DavidGillhasacompellingpersonalstoryandthepollfindingsshowhehasanabilitytomakegainsinthis racebyrelatinghisownlifeexperiencetohisissuepositionsandhiscommitmenttorepresentingthepeople ofthe13thDistrict.Heisanemergencyroomdoctorwhoiswellpreparedtotalkabouthealthcaresolutionsno matterwhattheSupremeCourtdecisionbrings.HehasexperiencedtherealstrugglesthatordinaryIllinoisans face,andhesharestheirfrustrationswiththegridlockandspecialinterestpoliticsinWashington.Whenthis messageiscommunicatedinthesurvey,Gillreadilyattractsundecidedvoters,andhecanwithstandharsh criticismandattacks.Gilliswellpositionedtobeverycompetitiveinthisdistrictifhehastheresourcesto communicatehismessage. Giventhecurrentpoliticalenvironmentofanythinggoesattacksandunbridledcampaignspending,votersare increasinglyskepticalabouttheinformationtheyreceive,andthisracelikelywillbebetweentwocandidateswhodont havevotingrecordsordistrictwiderecognition.Thewinnerislikelytobeapersonwhocanwinoncharacter someonewhohastheintegritytobehonestontoughissues,sothatvoterscantrusthimtomakeothertough decisionsinWashington.DavidGillfitsthisprofile.
www.victoriaresearch.com ILCD13 April2012