Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: South China Sea: Is China Getting What It Wished For? Carlyle A. Thayer April 24, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] As you know, the confrontation between Philippines and China in the South China Seaisgettingmoreandmoreserious.Couldyoucommentonthesituation?Chinese mediaiscallingforwar.Doyouthinkalimitedwarwillbreakout? ANSWER:ThesituationatScarboroughShoalisstable.AfterthePhilippinesremoved itsnavyfrigate,alltheshipsandvesselsinvolvedbyeithersidearecivilian.Noside onthespothasusedforceorthreatenedtouseforce.Chinahas,however,ordered thePhilippineCoastGuardcuttertoleaveChinesewaters.Chinahas reducedits maritime presence to one ship to match the single Philippine Coast Guard cutter thanhasbeentheresincereplacingthefrigate.TheChinesefishermenwhocaused thisincidentbyfishinginPhilippineswatershavelefttheareawiththeirillegalcatch. Both sides have given every indication that they intend to maintain a civilian enforcement presence at Scarborough Shoal. Unless a diplomatic agreement is reachedthestandoffismorelikelytoendwhenonesideisforcedtowithdrawdue to difficulties in maintaining a constant presence at Scarborough Shoal. The Philippineshasfewerresourcesandmostofitsshipsandboatsareinneedofrepair. Thelargerpictureismoreworrisome.NegotiationsbetweenManilaandBeijingdo not appear to be achieving results. Philippine government officials have called on ASEANforsupport.HoweverthereisgrowingcriticismofASEANforremainingsilent onthisissue.ThePhilippineshasissuedstronglywordedstatementswarningfellow ASEAN members that their interests in freedom of navigation and unimpeded commerceareunderthreatbyChineseactions.ThedangerhereisthatASEANwill becomemoredividedandthePhilippineswillrelymoreontheUnitedStates. Currently the Philippines and the United States are conducting a series combined jointmilitaryexercisesknownasBalikatanor ShouldertoShoulder.Thesearelong standingexercisesthatwereplannedlonginadvance.Theexercisesmainlyfocuson humanitarianassistanceandcivicactionandassistingthePhilippinesincontingency planningfornaturaldisasters.Buttheexercisesalsoincludefieldtrainingexercises. Oneexerciseinparticularinvolvesdefendingandretakinganoilrigfromterrorists.It isbeingheldinterritorialwatersofftheislandofPalawan.

2 Inaddition,thePhilippineshasrevealeditwillraisetheScarboroughShoalincident intalksnextweekinWashingtonbetweentheforeignanddefenceministersofthe twocountries. Sections of the Chinese media, the Liberation Army Daily and Global Times in particular, have reacted to these developments by releasing strongly worded statements threatening mini wars and other punitive action against the Philippines. These comments are worrisome on their own but do not reflect the considered view of Chinas top leadership. Under the Mutual Defense Treaty betweenthePhilippinesandtheUnitedStatesbothpartiesareobligedtoconsultin theeventtheterritorialintegrity,politicalindependenceorsecurityofeitherofthe PartiesisthreatenedbyexternalarmedattackinthePacific.Chinaislikelytoavoid crossingthisthreshold.NoChinesemilitarywarshiphasbeeninvolvedsofar. TheongoingstandoffatScarboroughShoalhasmajorimplicationsforASEANandits strategyoftryingtoconstrainChinathroughtheimplementationoftheDeclaration onConductofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea(DOC)andthedraftingofasupposed morebindingCodeofConduct.BoththeDOCandCOCaddresshowstatesshould acttowardsoneanotheruntilsovereigntydisputesaresettled.ButChinaisnotonly claiming sovereignty over every island and rock and adjacent waters that fall within its ninedash line map but actively asserting its jurisdiction. In simple terms China is pursuing a policy of might makes right. As long as China adheres to this position there is no basis for a settlement of sovereignty disputes on either a bilateralormultilateralbasis. The South China Sea is contested, as time goes on it will become more congested withcivilianlawenforcementvesselsandmilitarywarships.Itisonlyamatteratime before there is an accidental armed confrontation. Chinas new leadership must seriouslyreconsiderChinesepolicytowardstheSouthChinaSea.Chinaspolicywill exacerbate cleavages in ASEAN, rekindle the China threat, and invite the interventionofexternalpowers.IsthiswhatChinameansbyitspeacefulrise?