BELSPO FORUM Modelling Belgian Energy System With SEPIA LEAP

MODELLING THE BELGIAN ENERGY SYSTEM WITH SEPIA-LEAP FORUM
JOHAN COUDER, AVIEL VERBRUGGEN
SCIENCE FOR A SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT
(SSD)
Transversal actions Cluster of the research projects SEPIA - TUMATIM
INTERMEDIARY REPORT
MODELING THE BELGIAN ENERGY SYSTEM WITH SEPIALEAP
FORUM
SD/CL/06
Promoters Aviel Verbruggen (UA, Prinsstraat 13, 2000 Antwerpen) Wouter Nijs (VITO, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol)
Authors Johan Couder (UA) Aviel Verbruggen (UA)
Project SD/CL/006 FORUM: Modelling the Belgian energy system with SEPIA-LEAP
D/XXXX/XXXX/XX (to complete by Belspo) Published in 20XX by the Belgian Science Policy Avenue Louise 231 Louizalaan 231 B-1050 Brussels Belgium Tel: +32 (0)2 238 34 11 Fax: +32 (0)2 230 59 12 http://www.belspo.be Contact person: XXXXXXXX +32 (0)2 238 3X XX Neither the Belgian Science Policy nor any person acting on behalf of the Belgian Science Policy is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. The authors are responsible for the content. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without indicating the reference : Couder J. and Verbruggen A. Modelling the Belgian energy system with SEPIA-LEAP. Intermedirary Report. Brussels : Belgian Science Policy 20XX xx p. (Research Programme Science for a Sustainable Development)
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MODELLING THE BELGIAN ENERGY SYSTEM WITH SEPIA-LEAP
Contents
1. 2. The analytical framework: SEPIA-LEAP ........................................................................... 4 Structure of the demand sectors .......................................................................................... 6 2.1. Driving forces .............................................................................................................. 7 2.2. Buildings (dwellings and commercial buildings) ........................................................ 8 2.3. Industry (manufacturing sectors) ............................................................................... 10 2.4. Transportation ............................................................................................................ 11 3. The structure of the transformation sectors ...................................................................... 13 3.1. Combined heat and power or CHP ............................................................................ 13 3.2. Main power plants ..................................................................................................... 14 3.3. Petroleum refineries ................................................................................................... 17 3.4. Biofuel plants or biorefineries ................................................................................... 18 3.5. Hydrogen plants ......................................................................................................... 18 3.6. Waste processing ....................................................................................................... 19 4. Energy resources (total primary energy supply) ............................................................... 20
1. THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK: SEPIA-LEAP The SEPIA project was conducted in the framework of the BELSPO (Belgian Science Policy) project Science for Sustainable Development, and ran from January 2008 till December 2010. The goal of the project was to develop and discuss the feasibility of the main components of sustainability assessment in the Belgian energy policy context. SEPIA investigated decision support methodologies, procedures, structures and tools for a sustainable energy policy with a focus on stakeholder involvement. Identifying elements of consensus and of dissent across stakeholder groups about pragmatic designs of sustainability assessment provides a basis for sustainability assessment procedures adapted to the Belgian energy governance. In practice, SEPIA combined narrative scenario building and (quantitative) energy system modelling with participatory fuzzy-set multi-criteria analysis. The research methodology was interdisciplinary by attempting to integrate insights on energy system dynamics stemming from engineering, economics, policy sciences, sociology and ethics; while at the same time being attentive to the context-dependent nature of such knowledge (by trying to incorporate stakeholder insights). This article focuses on the modelling aspects of the Belgian energy system. For a detailed description of all other aspects of the SEPIA project we refer to [ Laes et al., 2011; Laes & Verbruggen, 2010]. In combining storylines with a model of the Belgian energy system, scenarios qualitatively explore diverse settings and quantitatively evaluate potential outcomes. Scenario elements can be modelled using explicit assumptions of how activity, technology and energy parameters change over time [Ghanadan & Koomey, 2005, p. 1124]. In the course of the SEPIA project, the university of Antwerp (UA) constructed a LEAP-based model of the Belgian energy system. LEAP (Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System) is a widely-used software tool for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment developed at the Stockholm Environment Institute [SEI, 2011]. LEAP was used to create SEPIA-LEAP, a simulation model that gave the experts in the SEPIA project the opportunity to assess the impact of different hypotheses via scenarios. SEPIA-LEAP is a bottom-up model, whose basic non-controversial physical (energy) accounting relationships allow forecasting as well as backcasting analysis. SEPIA-LEAP sets up an accounting balance for the flows of various energy carriers through the Belgian energy system from the sources of (primary) supply through transformation systems to the demand devices, which satisfy end-use demands for each time period (typically one year). Energy transformation and primary energy supply requirements are back-calculated form a set of final energy demands (end-use driven scenario analysis).
SEPIA-LEAP relies heavily on expert judgment. The degree of endogenization is fairly limited. The values of many parameters have to be provided as exogenous inputs into the model. Built-in functions however relieve the expert users of the burden of having to input too many parameters (fig. 1). SEPIA-LEAP is not capable of directly simulating price policies. On the demand side the model does not optimise market shares but instead analyzes the implications of possible alternative market penetrations on energy demand. On the supply-side it does not aim to find the least cost solutions but uses accounting approaches to provide answers to what-if type of analysis under different assumptions. Costs of alternative scenarios are not estimated. SEPIA-LEAP does not model economic and social effects either. The main reasons why the SEPIA team opted for LEAP are its strengths in addressing demand oriented policies, in particular lifestyle changes (e.g. more public transport) and accompanying measures (e.g. public awareness). Figure 1: Example of built-in functions in LEAP
The SEPIA-LEAP model of the Belgian energy system distinguishes demand sectors (energy end-use or final energy consumption), transformation sectors (transforming energy resources to energy carriers such as power and/or heat, oil products, biofuels and hydrogen), and energy resources (uranium, fossil fuels, renewables and waste).
2. STRUCTURE OF THE DEMAND SECTORS SEPIA-LEAP distinguishes three major demand sectors: buildings, industry and transportation (table 1). The sector agriculture, forestry and fishing is also included, but not modelled in detail as its total energy consumption in 2006 constituted less than 2.4% of total final energy consumption, excluding feedstock use of energy carriers. Table 1. Structure of the demand sectors in SEPIA-LEAP
Sector Buildings subsector Dwellings (households) Commercial buildings Base metals Type, process or mode Single-family (1) Multi-family
(2)
Industry
Non-metallic minerals
Pulp, paper and wood
Chemical sector
Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) casting steel Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) casting steel Other base metals Cement Quicklime Flat and hollow glass Other non-metallic minerals C-TMP (mechanical pulp) + graphic paper KRAFT (chemical pulp) + graphic paper Recycled paper (de-inked) + newsprint Recycled paper (non de-inked) + board Other paper and wood Ethylene from naphtha crackers Ammonia Other chemicals
Private (car, motorcycle) Public (road, light rail, rail) Freight Road (LDV, HDV) Rail Inland navigation Agriculture, forestry & fishing (1) Further differentiations, such as terraced houses, semi-detached and detached buildings, or rural, semi-urban and urban dwellings, etc., are not yet incorporated (2) In future versions of SEPIA-LEAP we hope to refine this category, providing subcategories such as (large / small) offices, health care, education, catering, etc. Buildings in industry are assigned to the industry sector.
Transportation
Other industry Passenger
The following sections provide a description of the most important variables, and how their values are set in the different scenarios. 2.1. DRIVING FORCES Energy demand in the end-use sectors (or demand for energy services) is mostly driven by a number of key activities or driving forces, namely: Population and average household size; Total floor area of commercial buildings; Outputs of different manufacturing sectors (either physical outputs or indices); Number of passenger-km and freight-km.
For dwellings the key variables are projected population growth and average household size. In case of commercial buildings, the driving force is total floor area (m). The projections for floor area are based on projected activity levels in different subsectors of the tertiary sector. Although these projections are usually given as growth in value added (VA) or number of employees, SEPIA-LEAP translates them to floor area, using known intensities such as m floor area per employee. For manufacturing the key variables depend on the subsector or process within a subsector. For certain processes, such as the production of steel, activities are represented by physical outputs (e.g. ton steel per year). For other subsectors, rather than using monetary outputs such as value added or sales, SEPIA-LEAP represents the growth of activities by a dimensionless index (with the index equal to 1 in the reference year). An index value of 1.3 by 2050 would simply mean that the activity has grown 30% relative to the reference year. Assigning different growth rates to activities lets SEPIA-LEAP capture two effects at once: a volume effect (increase or decrease in the absolute value of activities, e.g. production of steel), and a structural effect (e.g. a shift from manufacturing to services, and/or from energyintensive industrial activities to less energy intensive activities). A number of subsectors consist of a fairly limited number of firms. Closing down one or a few (large) factories, would have a sizeable and rather sudden impact on the output of that particular sector. For that reason SEPIA-LEAP introduces a so-called capacity switch. In the reference year capacity is set to 1. Changing that switch in a particular year from 1 to say 0.7, would mean that a subsector lost 30% of its total capacity at once, e.g. due to the closing down of one or more production units. Transportation activities are represented by two variables: passenger-km and freight km. Their evolution is also based on expert knowledge. Again, the expected growth
of these variables can and will differ from scenario to scenario, as determined by the experts. 2.2. BUILDINGS (DWELLINGS AND COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS) For dwellings a structural effect is simulated by introducing two categories of homes: single-family and multi-family. Multi-family buildings refer to any kind of building or building complex where it would be easy to share a number of services, in particular distribution of locally produced heat and/or power. Also, energy intensity for heating in multi-family buildings is given a similar level of thermal insulation in general lower than in single family buildings, for reasons of compactness. SEPIA-LEAP allows experts to input what percentage of all newly built homes in a particular year belong to either the single or multi-family class. Due to lack of data, at present only one type of average commercial building is considered. Concerning the energy intensity aspects of buildings, a first distinction is made between building related and other energy services. Building related energy services are heating, space cooling, ventilation, and auxiliary services (mostly energy consumption for pumps, fans and control). The other services include domestic hot water (DHW), cooking, wet appliances (clothes washers, dish washers), lighting, and other appliances. Whereas lighting and other appliances only use electricity, DHW, cooking and wet appliances can make use of other energy carriers. Wet appliances are treated separately, as they can rely on individual or local heat grids (hot fill) for their source of hot water. For cooking, the obvious choices are electricity, natural gas or LPG. For DHW, we have the added difficulty that DHW systems are often combined with the heating system. SEPIA-LEAP allows for this, and makes sure that the fuel mix for (combined) heating DHW systems stays consistent. For building related energy services SEPIA-LEAP introduces technological options basically by making a distinction between different types of buildings, namely (for each year in the time horizon): Surviving (reference year) building stock, without retrofit: Surviving building stock, with retrofit; New buildings, conforming to the ruling building standard in that particular year; New buildings, low energy; New buildings, extremely low energy.
Each of these types has its own average energy intensity, given as kWh/m of floor area. Floor space (m) is used as the driving variable for building related energy services. In addition, a difference is made between heated and cooled floor area, the latter usually being smaller than the former. For new buildings (and in principle also for retrofitted surviving building stock), the average floor area is not constant over time. The preference to live or work in larger or smaller buildings is seen as a lifestyle component. The progression of floor area per type of building is thus a parameter that can vary between different scenarios. The energy intensities for heating, cooling, ventilation and auxiliary services can and will change over time. For example, official building standards will become more stringent in the near future, and in the long run they may well converge with low energy and even extremely low energy building standards. Expert users of SEPIALEAP can influence the evolution of the energy intensities associated with different types of buildings, e.g. by introducing more stringent standards at an earlier or later time. The abovementioned average intensities refer to useful intensities in case of heating and space cooling. They are mainly influenced by the properties of the building shell: compactness, thermal insulation, air tightness, amount of glazing, orientation, etc. Once built, these properties are more or less fixed (bar retrofit), and will last for the remaining lifetime of the building. However, during that time, heating and cooling or HVAC systems in general may and will be replaced after a number of years (ranging from 15 to 30 years). To take this into account, SEPIA-LEAP introduces efficiencies for the HVAC systems, and final energy consumption is calculated by dividing the useful energy consumption for building services by the total system efficiency. Once more, these efficiencies can and will improve over time. [choice HVAC systems] Technology changes for building related energy services mostly depend on the shares experts attribute to the different types of buildings. To input these shares, the experts have to decide, from year to year, the remaining building stock, the share of remaining stock that is retrofitted, the number of new buildings and the types they belong to. The remaining building stock in year t equals remaining building stock in year t-1 minus demolished buildings. So first the experts have to input a yearly demolition rate. For the remaining surviving buildings, experts can enter a yearly retrofit rate (share of remaining surviving stock that gets a retrofitted building shell). New buildings in year t are calculated by subtracting from the required number of buildings (or floor area) in that particular year the number or remaining buildings (or floor area). Once the number of new buildings is known, the experts can attach
shares for the different types of desired new buildings (e.g. at least a quarter of all new buildings have to be extreme low energy). For DHW, cooking, lighting, wet and other appliances a slightly simpler method is employed. These services do not depend so much on building features as on household characteristics (household size, age of household members, occupancy rates, lifestyle patterns, etc.). Energy consumption is determined by multiplying energy intensity given as kWh/household with number of households. To simulate the penetration of new, energy-saving technologies SEPIA-LEAP assumes two kinds of technologies: reference and advanced, each with their own average energy intensities (advanced technologies obviously being the most efficient ones, i.e. having the lowest intensities). Expert users can indicate the desired share of each technology in the annually required purchases of new equipment. Requisite purchases are based on stock analysis, a built-in feature of the LEAP tool. The number of different appliances is kept at a strict minimum, to curtail the already vast input requirements. Last but not least, penetration rates are taken into account as well, even though it is assumed that every Belgian dwelling has DHW, lighting and at least some form of cooking device. 2.3. INDUSTRY (MANUFACTURING SECTORS) Energy consumption is determined for each of the subsectors and processes within subsectors. Structural shifts within industry are obtained by assuming different growth rates. It is thus possible that overall steel production declines, but where a negative growth of blast furnace (BF) steel is at least partly compensated by an increased production of electric arc furnace (EAF) steel (possibly giving EAF steel a larger share than BF steel). SEPIA-LEAP distinguishes four kinds of energy services within industry: high temperature process heat, low temperature process heat, machine drive and other (including energy use for buildings in industry and internal transportation). This obviously shows a rather simplified picture of all the real energy services within the manufacturing sectors. Unfortunately, even for this schematic version of industrial energy consumption, systematic, complete, reliable and timely data for the Belgian situation are sorely lacking. We have to rely on US and UK data [UK, 2009, US-EIA, 2009] instead, and adapt those to the Belgian situation to the best of our abilities. One reason to make the above distinction is that it gives experts the opportunity to provide more realistic estimates of cogeneration or CHP potentials (based on required low temperature process heat). Another reason is that it offers some indication of possible fuel mixes. In some high temperature processes it would be possible in theory at least to burn almost anything, including organic waste. As an aside, all four services can in principle use any kind of energy carrier. It is not the
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case that machine drive would only include fans, pumps, compressors etc. driven by electric motors. All kinds of motors are possible, steam motors included. The penetration of new, more energy efficient technologies is modelled in two ways: some of the old vintage capital stock has to be replaced, and firms have to invest in new vintage capital stock to meet expanded production requirements. Replacements are determined by introducing yearly retirement rates. These rates differ for each subsector, and the default values are based mainly on US data [US-DOE/IEA, 2009, 2011a, 2011b], although the expert users of SEPIA-LEAP are free to choose whatever rate they wish. For new capital stock, the experts have to indicate the ratio of high tech over reference technologies. High tech technologies have substantially lower energy intensities than reference technologies, and both are more efficient than existing stock technologies. Finally, intensities evolve over time, i.e. future technologies are assumed to become more and more energy efficient. In the SEPIA exercise the evolution of the energy intensities of the different services were largely based on expert judgment extracted from other models [US DOE/IEA, 2009, 2011a, 2011b; EU, 2009]. SEPIA-LEAP also recognizes that even old vintage stock may gradually improve over time, although less outspoken than in the case of new technologies. This is modelled through a gradual decrease of energy intensities, the rate of which is determined by the expert users. 2.4. TRANSPORTATION Structural shifts in transportation are in effect modal choices. The expert users initially choose the desired contribution of public transport to total passenger mobility. Next, for private transport the scenario builders decide on the division between (private) car and motorcycle usage, and for public transport on the fractions of public road, public light rail and public rail. Scenarios for freight transportation require determining the anticipated shares of road transportation, rail and inland navigation. Additional inputs for freight road transportation involve ascertaining the future roles of light duty vehicles (LDV) and heavy duty vehicles (HDV). The evolution of energy consumption in transportation depends mainly on the selection of various technologies, namely internal combustion engine (ICE), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (P-HEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV), grid-connected electric vehicle (GEV), and finally fuel cell vehicle (FCV). All of these technologies have different energy intensities, in terms of energy consumption per vehicle-km(MJ/v-km). These intensities in terms of MJ per vehicle-km are converted into intensities in terms of MJ per passenger-km or MJ per freight-km, using assumptions relating to passenger-loads (number of passengers per vehicle) or freight loads (ton per vehicle). Energy intensities and loads can vary over time. Changes of energy intensities as MJ/v-km are pure technological improvements,
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whereas changes in (passenger) loads can to a certain extent be seen as lifestyle elements (e.g. car pooling). Replacement of vehicles is based on stock analysis (fig. 2). Figure 2: example of a vehicle survival profile in LEAP
All vehicles with an internal combustion engine, including hybrids, can in principle make use of fossil fuels (LPG, petrol/gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas) or biofuels (bio-ethanol, biodiesel). By definition, BEV or GEV can only use (grid) electricity, and FCV hydrogen (currently, SEPIA-LEAP does not model FCV with onboard convertors). The experts have to input the desired shares of fuel mix per transport mode and transport technology.
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3. THE STRUCTURE OF THE TRANSFORMATION SECTORS Transformation sectors convert energy sources such as uranium, fossil fuels, biomass and renewables to (secondary) energy carriers such as electricity, heat, transportation fuels or hydrogen. In the current version, SEPIA-LEAP recognizes the following transformation sectors: combined heat and power (CHP) a.k.a. cogeneration, main power plants, petroleum refineries, biofuel plants or biorefineries, and hydrogen plants (table 2). Although strictly speaking not belonging to the transformation sector, waste incineration or waste processing with energy recuperation (power and/or heat) is also included, but treated separately within SEPIA-LEAP. Table 2. Structure of the transformation sectors in SEPIA-LEAP
Sector CHP Subsector Small-scale, local CHP Technology Steam motor, internal combustion engine (ICE), Stirling motor, fuel cell, combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) with or without CCS, gas turbine (GT), steam turbine backpressure and steam turbine condensing.
Main power plants
Gas turbines, bio(diesel) engines Coal steam turbine power plants with or without CCS; IGCC (integrated coal gasification combined cycle) with or without CCS; CCGT (combined cycle gas turbines) with or without CCS; biomass (wood) steam turbines; and finally biomass (wood) gasification. Base load Nuclear; flow renewables (*) Oil refineries Biofuel plants First generation Bio-ethanol from sugar crops; biodiesel (FAME) from rapeseed by pressure extraction + ester exchange Second generation Bio-ethanol; biodiesel Hydrogen Water based Electrolysis Biomass based Wood to hydrogen Fossil fuel based Natural gas reforming with or without CCS; coal gasification with or without CCS (*) For a rationale of why nuclear and renewables are mutually exclusive on the major directions of future power system, see Verbruggen (2008)
Large-scale CHP Peak load Load following
3.1. COMBINED HEAT AND POWER OR CHP In SEPIA-LEAP the activities of CHP plants are driven by heat demand. Total (net) heat demand is the sum of the heat demands of the demand sectors (households, commercial sectors, industry and agriculture), and of other transformation sectors (mainly petroleum refineries but possibly also biofuel and hydrogen plants). From this heat produced by waste processing is subtracted, if relevant. Finally, this remaining
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heat demand is corrected for heat (distribution) losses and in the reference year also for statistical differences to conform to the IEA energy balance of Belgium. The CHP sector consists of both small-scale, local (buildings, agriculture) and largescale, centralized (industry, heat and power sector) plants. In SEPIA it was assumed that small-scale heat demand equals demand from households, commercial sectors and agriculture, whereas large-scale heat demand originates (mostly) from industry. For both small-scale and large-scale heat demand the list of available CHP technologies is the same, but contributions may differ. For example, gas motors or in future Stirling engines will probably have higher shares for small-scale applications, whereas steam turbines or combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) will have higher shares for large-scale applications. The list of available CHP-technologies consists of steam motor, internal combustion engine (ICE), Stirling motor, fuel cell, combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT), gas turbine (GT), steam turbine backpressure and steam turbine condensing. Each CHP technology has its own heat efficiency and electric efficiency. These efficiencies can improve over time. The assumed fuel mix may depend on CHP technology. Steam motors utilize wood. Internal combustion engines or ICE consist either of gas motors operating on natural gas and/or biogas, or diesel motors using traditional diesel and/or biodiesel. Stirling engines are in principle the most versatile technology, able to operate on any external heat source: hydrogen, fossil fuels or biofuels, but also renewables such as geothermal heat or solar heat. For fuel cells the only allowed energy carrier is hydrogen (we assume no on-board converter). Gas turbines and CCGT normally run on natural gas, but biogas is equally allowed. Steam engines are quite flexible as well, operating on all kinds of fossil fuels or biofuels, or in some cases even waste. In case of CCGT-CHP, SEPIA-LEAP allows for possible carbon capture and storage (CCS). For most other CHP technologies, the SEPIA team assumed that the scale isnt large enough to make CCS a sensible option. The supposed carbon capture efficiency is 88.1% [IIASA, 2004]. Once the expert users have determined which CHP technology is required to cover a certain heat demand, the model calculates total fuel input, fuel mix and electricity output, based on desired fuel shares and known efficiencies. If relevant captured CO2 is also calculated. 3.2. MAIN POWER PLANTS
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Total electricity supply has to match total electricity demand. Final electricity demand is the sum of electricity required by the demand sectors (households, commercial sectors, transportation, industry and agriculture) and the transformation sectors (petroleum refineries, biofuels plants and hydrogen plants). To this sum total are added transmission and distribution losses, to determine total net electricity that has to be either produced within Belgium or imported. From this total SEPIA-LEAP deducts electricity generated by CHP plants, waste power plants and waste / landfill CHP plants. The end result in principle is the amount of electricity Belgian main power plants have to generate at bus bar. SEPIA-LEAP does not incorporate an electricity grid model for the EU or for Belgium and its neighbouring countries. To include the possibility of imports or exports of electricity, SEPIA-LEAP provides an input factor required domestic capacity. If this factor is lower than 1, the model first calculates a certain amount of electricity that has to be imported, before deciding how much extra domestic capacity is needed to match demand . At this stage of the SEPIA-LEAP development this factor is purely ad hoc, and used mainly to ensure that in the reference year the SEPIA-LEAP energy balance matches the IEA energy balance for Belgium. The methodology used to determine fuel consumption (and related GHG emissions) by power plants is roughly as follows. Once the required share in power output of a certain technology is determined by the experts (see following paragraphs), SEPIALEAP determines based on capacity (MWe) and availability factor (-) whether existing technology is able to produce the required amount of electricity. If yes, fuel input is calculated from the known efficiency (%) of that technology in a particular year. If not, new capacity (MWe) of the same technology is automatically added to make sure that required power output is satisfied. Based on the availability factors and efficiencies of the new power plants, fuel inputs are calculated for these additional units. Availability factors and efficiencies are technical inputs in SEPIALEAP. They can evolve over time (plants of the same technology becoming more efficient over time), at a rate decided by the expert users. In case of carbon capture and storage (CCS), CO2 capture efficiency is an extra technical input in SEPIALEAP. To determine the shares of the different main power plant technologies SEPIA-LEAP divides the duration load curve for main power plants into three parts: peak load demand, load following and base load demand (fig. 3).
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Figure 3: Example of a load duration curve in LEAP
Peak load demand is taken as a percentage of total electricity demand. This percentage may change over the years. For example, it may decrease as a result of peak load shaving policies or measures. The peaking power plants are limited in SEPIA-LEAP to gas turbines, diesel engines . Whereas gas turbines are assumed to operate almost exclusively on natural gas, the diesel engines can either use (ordinary) diesel or biodiesel. Peak load gas turbines and diesel engines with carbon capture and storage were in SEPIA a priori not considered to be realistic options. Nuclear power plants and flow or non-combustible renewables (hydro, wind, PV) are always considered to be base load plants. This means that to satisfy electricity demand required from main power plants they are always placed first in the merit order [Verbruggen, 2008]. New nuclear plant options include Gen-III and Gen-IV. Capacities of flow renewables cannot exceed exogenously determined technical potentials. For the load following, middle or intermediate load power plants SEPIA-LEAP distinguishes three main technologies: coal power plants, (natural) gas power plants and biomass power plants. For each year within the time horizon the expert users can determine the desired shares (%) for each of these technologies. Additional choices include whether newly added capacities should use gasification technologies (in case of coal or biomass), and whether
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carbon capture and storage (CCS) is required or not (in case of coal or natural gas). The complete list of potential new technologies thus entails advanced coal steam turbine power plants with or without CCS; IGCC (integrated coal gasification combined cycle) with or without CCS; CCGT (combined cycle gas turbines) with or without CCS; biomass (wood) steam turbines; and finally biomass (wood) gasification. 3.3. PETROLEUM REFINERIES There is not a one-to-one relationship between domestic demand for petroleum products and domestic production by the Belgian petroleum refineries. The ideal would be to have a model of the European (or even world) petroleum markets. This was not within the scope of the SEPIA project. In SEPIA-LEAP the evolution of the production of the petroleum refineries more or less follows the projected demand for oil based transportation fuels in Belgium. The reasoning behind this is as follows. Firstly the (largest) Belgian refineries mainly produce transportation fuels. Secondly, a decline for the demand of transportation fuels in Belgium would likely follow a similar decline in the neighbouring countries or other European countries. If need be, users of SEPIA-LEAP can input any evolution of the production of the Belgian petroleum refineries they anticipate. The modelling of petroleum refineries in SEPIA-LEAP is very schematic. Based on projected feedstocks (crude oil and refinery feedstocks) consumption and the total process efficiency (%) of Belgian refineries, total outputs (TJ) are determined. Total process efficiency in the reference year 2006 was estimated to be 95.3%. Outputs per petroleum product are based on the shares of these products in total output. Future changes in the lay-out of petroleum refineries could mean different shares for the various petroleum products. Total energy input (TJ) is based on total energy intensity (TJ energy required per TJ of total useful output). In a next step, shares of different fuels in total energy input are established. The fuel mix in refineries consists of refinery gas, petroleum cokes, residual fuel oil and natural gas. The Belgian petroleum refineries during their normal operations produce refinery gas and petroleum cokes. These fuels are always used first to meet the energy input requirements. For the remaining fuel consumption, the SEPIA-LEAP user may select different shares for residual fuel oil and natural gas. Although the consumption of (own-produced) residual fuel oil is as a rule cheaper, refineries may find it necessary to consume a certain amount of natural gas, e.g. to comply with SO2 emission standards. CO2-emissions are calculated based on the consumption of above mentioned fuels. SEPIA-LEAP also takes into account process-related emissions. Petroleum refineries have a fairly large heat demand. Heat generated by CHP is considered separately (see CHP module).
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More stringent (environmental and product related) standards, changing markets, the origin of the crude oil, etc. all have an impact on the operations of the refineries. These impacts would reflect on how refineries are modelled (total process efficiency, different mix of petroleum products outputs, energy intensity). SEPIA-LEAP does not handle these matters in great detail. One reason for this is that it is expected that by 2050 (traditional) petroleum refineries would only play a marginal role. 3.4. BIOFUEL PLANTS OR BIOREFINERIES Biofuels, in particular transportation biofuels such as bio-ethanol or biodiesel, may become increasingly more dominant in future, depending on the scenario. As with petroleum based transportation fuels, there need not be a one-to-one relationship between domestic supply and domestic demand. Basically, the expert users decide how the domestic production of biofuels will evolve. The first decade of this century saw the construction of a number of biofuels plants in Belgium. The modelling of biofuel plants is straightforward, and based on intensities such as biomass and electricity required per unit of output. In case fossil fuels are still needed, we assumed that natural gas is the preferred choice (although one can opt for other fuels, like fuel oil). SEPIA-LEAP makes an explicit distinction between first and second generation biofuels. By definition all biofuels produced from agricultural energy crops are first generation, and all biofuels from woody plants second generation. The different technologies considered in SEPIA-LEAP are first generation bio-ethanol from sugar crops (for Belgium, only sugar beet is considered relevant); first generation biodiesel (FAME) from rapeseed by pressure extraction + ester exchange; second generation bio-ethanol; and second generation biodiesel (BtL). Although some of the biomass can be produced locally, most of the biomass would more than likely have to be imported, unless the experts decide that it would be more preferable to import the biofuels directly rather than import large amounts of biomass and transform them to biofuels in Belgium. Biorefineries go one step further than biofuel plants. They would not only produce fuels, but also intermediate and final consumer goods from biomass. A complete concept of biorefineries has not as yet been incorporated within SEPIA-LEAP. 3.5. HYDROGEN PLANTS The hydrogen module in SEPIA-LEAP describes plants solely dedicated to the production of hydrogen. Although Belgium already produces small amounts of hydrogen, this hydrogen is mostly a by-product of other activities. Depending on the
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assumptions made in the scenarios, the demand for hydrogen may increase steeply in the future. Again domestic demand for hydrogen does not have to match domestic hydrogen supply or production. Any shortages or surpluses can be imported or exported. The potential role of domestic hydrogen production is left to the judgment of the scenario builders. Similar to biofuel plants, the modelling of hydrogen plants in SEPIA-LEAP is largely based on feedstock and energy input intensities. The list of hydrogen production technologies comprises electrolysis, wood to hydrogen, natural gas reforming with or without CCS, and coal gasification with or without CCS. The percentage shares of the different technologies are decided upon by the expert users. 3.6. WASTE PROCESSING The generation of electricity and or heat from waste is treated separately in SEPIALEAP. Waste refers to the remaining fraction (after selection of recoverable or recyclable parts) of municipal solid waste (MSW) and similar industrial waste. In a first step expert users determine the amount of MSW generated per year. This is based on scenario assumptions concerning population growth, and a factor reflecting household waste generated per capita. This factor should normally decrease, under influence of policies promoting waste prevention and recycling. For similar industrial waste SEPIA-LEAP relies on factors relating this generated waste to industrial activities. In a next step user inputs the desired shares of waste treatment technologies. Options are landfill, waste incineration with generation of electricity only, waste incineration with generation of heat only, CHP based on waste incineration, and fermentation (for the production of biogas). The modelling approach is very similar to the ones used in the modules for CHP and main power plants.
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4. ENERGY RESOURCES (TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY) Resources entail both domestic production (extraction) of primary energy carriers (in Belgium almost exclusively flow renewables, primary solid biomass including a fraction of MSW, other wastes and coal) and imports of energy carriers. From the demand and transformation modules SEPIA-LEAP calculates the amount of (primary) energy resources needed in Belgium. Uranium, crude oil and natural gas always have to be imported. Coal can be either imported or extracted domestically. In the SEPIA project the re-opening of Belgian coal mines was not considered a valid option and was therefore not simulated in SEPIA-LEAP. Constraints on the imports of uranium or fossil fuels were not explicitly examined, although SEPIA-LEAP does allow import limitations. SEPIA-LEAP calculates the requirements of both biomass for direct use (combustion in boilers etc), and biomass used in the transformation sector for the production of biofuels and/or biogas. Biomass can be produced locally or imported at the discretion of the scenario builders, but within exogenously determined given potentials [Neyens, 2008; Van Regemorter et al., 2007]. Table 4. Potentials of renewables in Belgium in 2050
Renewable category Biomass Subcategory Production [GWh] 9,306 4,585 23,000 6,820 14,440 8,000 2,400 0,750 potential
Wood and wood residue Bio-crops (wheat rapeseed) Biomass import Wind On-shore Off-shore Solar Solar PV Solar thermal Hydro Hydro Source: Neyens (2008), Van Regemorter et al. (2007)
&
REFERENCES Belgium (2011), BELGIUMS GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY (1990-2009) National Inventory Report submitted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, January 2011 EU (2009): Study on the Energy Savings Potentials in EU Member States, Candidate Countries and EEA Countries, Final Report for the European Commission, Directorate-General Energy and Transport EC Service Contract Number TREN/D1/239-2006/S07.66640, Karlsruhe, 14. March 2009, revised.
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http://ec.europa.eu/energy/efficiency/studies/doc/2009_03_15_esd_efficiency_ potentials_final_report.pdf Federaal Planbureau (2008): Bevolkingsvooruitzichten 2007-2060, Planning paper 105, Federaal Planbureau, Brussel, Mei 2008. Ghanadan, R. and Koomey, J.G. (2005): Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California, in: Energy Policy, 33, pp.1117-1142. IIASA (2004): Long-term Perspectives for Carbon Capture in Power Plants: Scenarios for the 21st Century, Interim Report IR-04-032, Laxenburg, October 22, 2004. Laes E., J. Couder, A. Verbruggen, G. Eggermont, J. Hug, F. Maes, G. Meskens, D. Ruan, J. Schrder, M. Jacquemain, P. Italiano (2011): Sustainable Energy Policy Integrated Assessment SEPIA - Final Report. Brussels : Belgian Science Policy 2011 104 p. (Research Programme Science for a Sustainable Development) Neyens, J. (2008): Hernieuwbare energie Potentieel in 2020, Hoorzitting MINA-Raad, IFEST, Gent, 22/10/2008. Nijs, W. and Van Regemorter, D. (2007): Post-Kyoto options for Belgium, 2012-2050, Working paper series n 2007-06, KU-Leuven, 2007. SEI (2011): LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, User Guide for Version 2011 First Draft, Stockholm Environment Institute, Sommerville, May 2011. UK (2009): Energy Consumption in the UK Industrial data tables 2009 update, Department of Energy & Climate Change, A National Statistics Publication, 09D/455B, London, July 2009. www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk US-DOE/EIA (2009): The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009, US Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington DC, October 2009. www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview US-DOE/EIA (2011a): Model Documentation Report: Industrial Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System, US Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington DC, May 2011.
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US-DOE/EIA (2011b): Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2011, Report Number DOE/EIA-0554(2011), US Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington DC, July 2011 US-EIA (2009): Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) 2006 Data Tables, US Energy Information Administration (EIA), released June 2009. http://www.eia.gov/emeu/mecs/mecs2006/2006tables.html Verbruggen A. (2008): Renewable and nuclear power: A common future?, in: Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 11, November 2008, Pages 4036-4047.
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BELSPO FORUM Modelling Belgian Energy System With SEPIA LEAP

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BELSPO FORUM Modelling Belgian Energy System With SEPIA LEAP

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MODELLING THE BELGIAN ENERGY SYSTEM WITH SEPIA-LEAP FORUM

JOHAN COUDER, AVIEL VERBRUGGEN

SCIENCE FOR A SUSTAINABLE

MODELING THE BELGIAN ENERGY SYSTEM WITH SEPIALEAP

Authors Johan Couder (UA) Aviel Verbruggen (UA)

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

MODELLING THE BELGIAN ENERGY SYSTEM WITH SEPIA-LEAP

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

Pulp, paper and wood

Other industry Passenger

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SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

Main power plants

Large-scale CHP Peak load Load following

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Figure 3: Example of a load duration curve in LEAP

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SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

SSD-Science for a Sustainable Development Science for a Sustainable Development SSD

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