The Donella Meadows Archive Voice of a Global Citizen

The Latest News from the Ozone Layer Twenty-five years ago there appeared two obscure scientific papers that rocked the industrial world. One of them, by Richard Stolarski and Ralph Cicerone, said that if chlorine atoms ever got wafted high up into the stratosphere, they could eat up the ozone layer. The second, by Mario Molina and Sherwood Rowland (who got the Nobel Prize for this work in 1995) said that chlorine atoms were already up there, that they were coming from human-made chemicals, and that the damage they could cause would threaten virtually all life on earth. The chemicals were chlorofluorocarbons, known as CFCs, then widely used in refrigerators, car air conditioners, insulating foam, cleaning agents, aerosol spray cans and fast-food hamburger wrappers. Until those two papers came out, everyone thought CFCs were benign. Only an atmospheric chemist could have imagined that they might be making mischief five miles over our heads. The mischief consisted of munching away the protective zone of ozone up there that filters out most of the ultraviolet rays from incoming sunshine -- the UV rays that give us sunburn, cataracts, snow-blindness and skin cancer and would do a great deal worse, if they came in any stronger. In the 25 years since the world received this warning a lot has happened to demonstrate that there is intelligent life on earth. Scientists learned much more very fast about the chemistry of the stratosphere. The United Nations pulled together governments to hammer out the 1987 Montreal Protocol and several later agreements to slow and then stop CFC manufacture. Industry did a brilliant job of finding other ways to do the many tasks that CFCs had been doing. A new report has just come out, written by 305 scientists from 35 nations under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, telling us, basically, that we did good. The damage we did to the ozone layer was deadly serious and is not over. But we're on our way to healing. Here are their main findings: "The Montreal Protocal is working." Human CFC production has now fallen to only seven percent of its 1989 peak of 1.3 million tons. Most nations are abiding by the agreements. There is some smuggling of illegal CFCs, but it is minor compared to the damage that has been averted. "The ozone layer is currently in its most vulnerable state." Ozone-depleting chemicals are expected to peak in the stratosphere around the year 2000. There's a delay between the production peak and the damage peak, because it takes years for a newly released CFC molecule to work its way up to the ozone layer. "The springtime Antarctic ozone hole continues unabated." Ozone depletion is worse over the South Pole than anywhere else. The vast ozone hole that opens there every October in the southern spring shows no sign of closing. "The late-winter/spring ozone values in the Arctic were unusually low in 6 out of the last 9 years." There are far more people in northern high latitudes than in southern ones, so this drop of ozone in the northern spring, with its measurable increase in UV radiation (about 7 percent across the United States), is cause for concern and will be for another decade or so. "The ozone layer will slowly recover over the next 50 years." That's how long the chlorine already up in the stratosphere will last. Our UV-filter is expected to be back to its 1980 state by about 2050, assuming the

international agreements continue to be followed and there are no large volcanic eruptions (which can also temporarily deplete ozone). "Few policy options are available to enhance the recovery of the ozone layer," We've already done about all we can do. We just need to keep doing it and wait and hope. There's one kicker in the new report. The stratosphere is cooling these days, because the depleted ozone layer is trapping less radiation there. That means, it seems, that more ultraviolet light is reaching the earth, but less infrared light, the kind that does the main warming. That effect may be counterbalancing as much as 30 percent of the warming that would otherwise be expected from another of our polluting activities, our emission of greenhouse gases. The ozone hole has been disguising some global warming. As it heals (which is a good thing), we may be in for an unusual surge in temperature (which is a bad thing.) We haven't yet done an intelligent job of responding to the global warming problem. One reason for that is the obstinate denial of a few highly placed ultra-conservative American Congresspersons, some of whom also loudly deny that there has ever been an ozone-layer problem. To them I can only say, do your homework. Read that report from the 350 scientists. It is written in utterly clear language, and it corrects the many misconceptions you (and your talk-radio friends) have been circulating. There's an especially good "frequently asked questions" section at the beginning. I have never before seen such thoroughly documented scientific proof of any environmental problem. The science is not in question. And the story of the past 25 years show that repairing global-scale environmental damage may be a challenge -- but it's possible. And we're up to it. With the ozone layer we are doing it. We could do it with the climate too. (Donella H. Meadows is an adjunct professor of environmental studies at Dartmouth College and director of the Sustainability Institute, a think/do tank that promotes sustainable systems.) Copyright Sustainability Institute This article from The Donella Meadows Archive is available for use in research, teaching, and private study. For other uses, please contact Sustainability Institute, 3 Linden Road, Hartland, VT 05048, (802) 436-1277. What is the ozone layer? The ozone layer is a section within the stratosphere of the atmosphere where the gas o3 is found. The ozone layer is earths protective shield which absorbs the harmful UV rays from the sun before they reach us on the surface. Why is the ozone layer so important to us? We all know that our mothers told us to wear sun block, or to cover up in the sun and to wear a capI do it to my children now. Why? Because the suns rays can cause skin cancer. It would be a whole lot worse if we didnt have the ozone layer, in fact, without the ozone layer our planet would be reduced to a waste land as temperatures on the surface would not make life sustainable. Besides for absorbing the UV rays from the sun, the ozone layer also absorbs the infra red rays that the earth reflects back into the atmosphere. This is commonly known as the greenhouse effect Without this function of the ozone layer, our earth would become too cold to support life. No wonder environmentalists and greenies worldwide want to protect our atmosphere from ozone layer depletion.

Where is the ozone hole? (Image courtesy of NASA) The ozone hole is in the Southern Hemisphere centred over Antarctica. It is not really a gaping hole, but rather an area in the ozone layer that is thinner than the rest of the layer around the globe. Many people believe that this hole is over Australia, but this is incorrect. The size of it does stretch slightly with the seasons but it is generally only over Antarctica. What caused this ozone layer depletion? About 20 years ago there was a major outcry against the use of CFCs or Chlorofluorocarbons. CFCs were then widely used in products like refrigerators, fire fighting agents, air conditioning and surgical sterilizers. Aerosol cans also made use of CFCs. Scientists discovered that these CFCs , which contain chlorine, can, under certain conditions breakdown ozone into oxygen. And these chlorine atoms were found in the air in the ozone layer above Antarctica. The banning of CFCs throughout the world followed, agreed upon by world leaders in 1987 documented in the Montreal Protocol treaty, and subsequently enforced in 1989. But is this the end of the story? Now that we are getting rid of CFCs will the ozone hole repair itself? Well the answer to that is NO. Why not you may ask? Well, what most of the media and the environmentalists do not tell you is about the natural weather phenomenon called the polar vortex NASA states in their ozone watch website: Each year for the past few decades during the Southern Hemisphere spring, chemical reactions involving chlorine and bromine cause ozone in the southern polar region to be destroyed rapidly and severely. This depleted region is known as the ozone hole. Well, chlorine atoms which are responsible for the depletion of the ozone layer are not seasonal. These atoms are around all the time. When the hole was first discovered by Gordon Dobson in the 1920s, CFCs were not that widely used, however the hole was still there, and has worsened in the years since discovery. Some scientists believe that the ozone layer depletion cannot be traced back to purely CFC usage but is the result of the seasonal winds that blow in the South Pole in August every year. This polar vortex is characterized by a steady rush of wind moving in an upward direction. Chlorine molecules are much heavier than the surrounding air and as such cannot float up into the ozone layer during other times of the year and it is only with this polar vortex that the wind currents are strong enough to actually carry the wrong doers up into the atmosphere over the Antarctic during the Southern Hemisphere spring each year. It is seen on ozone layer graphs that the hole deepens for only a few months of the year and then by November the ozone levels return to their first recorded levels.

Last month, you updated us on the status of acid rain. That got me thinking about another environmental scourge of the 1980sthe hole in the ozone layer. What ever happened to that? It's still a problem. As of a few weeks ago, the "hole"which isn't so much a gap in the ozone layer as an area of seasonal thinningis even bigger than it was at the height of the ozone panic in the 1980s. (At the moment, it spans a patch of sky almost the size of North America.) That said, the ozone layer is in much better shape today than it would have been had the world not taken decisive action 20 years ago. It's just that the damage we did in the old days is going to take a long time to heal. You might remember that ozone gasmade from triplets of oxygen atomshelps shield us from the sun's harmful UV-B rays. Most of it is in the lower stratosphere, roughly six to 30 miles above the Earth's surface, where it's created naturally by the interaction of sunlight and regular oxygen. Other gases, particularly those containing chlorine or bromine, can make ozone molecules break apart. Starting in the 1970s, scientists suspected that the widespread use of industrial chemicals might be putting additional chlorine and bromine into the stratosphere. In particular, researchers worried about the chlorofluorocarbons used in fridges, air conditioners, and aerosol spray cans and the halon gases used in fire extinguishers. (Human technology also creates some ozone, but that stuff tends to stay close to the ground, where it causes a range of health issues.) By the mid-1980s, researchers knew that ozone concentrations were decreasing around the world, threatening humans with an increased incidence of skin cancer and eye cataracts and endangering plants and other kinds of animals. In 1985, following several years of U.N.-sponsored meetings, 21 nations formally agreed to cooperate on researching and monitoring the issue. It came to a head two months later, however, when a team of British researchers showed that a huge "hole" had appeared in the ozone layer above the Antarctic. What had been a predicament now started to seem like an emergency. By 1987, 24 nations had ratified the Montreal Protocol (PDF), a landmark agreement that calls for a ban on producing and using nearly 100 of the most important ozone-depleting chemicals. As of this month, with the addition of East Timor, the protocol has been ratified by every member of the United Nations. Ninety-seven percent of the substances regulated under the Montreal Protocol have now been phased out and replaced in manufacturing with more ozone-friendly alternatives, like hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The remaining gases will be phased out globally by 2040. According to the United Nations Environmental Programme, enactment of the protocol has prevented some 20 million cases of skin cancer and 130 million cases of eye cataracts. Since many ozone-depleting substances are also greenhouse gases (PDF), the treaty has also helped with global warming: A 2007 paper estimated that over the past 20 years, the protocol has prevented the emission of 10.7 to 13.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent annually. Even so, it's going to take several decades for the Antarctic hole to close up for good. That's because the ozone-depleting gases we emitted before the Montreal Protocol are still floating around the stratosphere or making their way in that direction. Some of these gases can circulate for a century before their molecules break apart or air currents remove them from the sky. While we're waiting for the ozone layer to heal itself, a few new wrinkles have appeared in the story.Last month, researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a paper showing that nitrous oxidewhich isn't now regulated under the Montreal Protocolis on its way to becoming the leading destroyer of ozone. It turns out that the chlorine in some of the other, more prominent ozone-depleting gaseslike CFCsdampens the effects of nitrous oxide in the stratosphere. Now that their levels are decreasing, N2O is free to do more damage on its own. (As the Lantern has noted before, nitrous oxide is also an important greenhouse gas.) Meanwhile, fixing the hole in the ozone layer may end up worsening some other environmental problems. The hydrofluorocarbons we use in place of many CFCs don't contribute to ozone depletion, but some of

them have thousands of times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide. Given the projected boom in usage in the developing worldthanks to a growing appetite for refrigerators and air conditioners these chemicals may end up being a major contributor to climate change. (Researchers estimate that HFCs could be one-fifth as problematic as carbon dioxide by the year 2050.) Earlier this month, the United States, Canada, and Mexico issued a joint proposal for a "phase down" in HFCs, which can be replaced in some applications with more eco-friendly options, like carbon dioxide, ammonia, or HFCs with lower global-warming potential. In November, the signatories of the Montreal Protocol will hold their annual meeting in Egypt, so we should hear more on this topic in the next few months. There are many possible geo-engineering solutions open to scientists in the aim to stave off global warming. One of the main candidates to dim the solar energy input to the atmosphere is to inject huge quantities of sulphate particles high in the atmosphere. This mimics the emissions from a large volcanic explosion proven to cool the Earths atmosphere in the past. But, you guessed it, theres a problem. New research suggests that tampering with the atmosphere in this way will have serious repercussions for the ozone layer Now theres a surprise! On writing this weeks Carnival of Space, I came across an interesting discussion about the damage that can be caused by scientists tampering with weather. Nancy L. Young-Houser takes the strong view that under no circumstance is it OK to alter natural weather processes, even if the purpose is to advert a catastrophic hurricane or bring rain to drought-ridden regions. Looking at historic examples of cloud seeding for example, Nancy concludes that weather manipulation is not only morally but ethically wrong. There will always be a loser. Then today, the BBC ran an article on the perils of using high altitude particles to block sunlight from entering our atmosphere. The effect of such a large-scale measure could emulate the ejected particles from a huge volcanic explosion. Sulphide particles are known to be a highly efficient means to deflect sunlight, thus cooling our atmosphere, possibly saving us from the ravages of our self-inflicted global warming. (This effect was observed in the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, pictured.) But there is a big flaw in this plan according to new research published in Science. Sulphide particles can damage the ozone layer, possibly creating another hole in the ozone over the Arctic and undo the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, setting it back decades. Dr Simone Tilmes of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCar) in Boulder, Colorado, and her team analysed data and ran simulations of the sulphide effect on the atmosphere. Their conclusion? Injecting sulphide particles into the high atmosphere may lessen the effects of global warming, but it will also set back Antarctic ozone layer recovery 30 to 70 years. Sulphates are ideal particles on which atmospheric chlorine gases held in polar clouds will attach themselves to (pictured top). A chemical reaction between sulphate particle and chlorine destroys ozone molecules (O 3). The effects of this chemical reaction may cause accelerated damage in troubled polar regions. This ozone depletion was also recorded after the Mount Pinatubo eruption. Attempting to repair the global damage we are causing to the atmosphere by injecting even more particles at high altitudes may not be the best way forward. After all, as outlined in Nancys article, there

are many hidden risks when geo-engineering our atmospheric dynamics. Perhaps working on the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions may be a better idea, sooner rather than later.

Environmental Indicators: Ozone Depletion

ver 60 years ago, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were invented in the United States, and they soon found many uses throughout the world in refrigeration, air conditioning, and other industrial processes. Due to scientific evidence that CFCs and other chemicals destroy ozone in the upper atmosphere, the United States, the country which has traditionally been the largest emitter of CFCs worldwide, is rapidly scaling back the use of these chemicals and phasing out their production. The ozone (O3) layer in the stratosphere protects life on earth from exposure to dangerous levels of ultraviolet light. It does so by filtering out harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun. When CFCs and other ozone-degrading chemicals are emitted, they mix with the atmosphere and eventually rise to the stratosphere. There, the chlorine and the bromine they contain catalyze the destruction of ozone. This destruction is occurring at a more rapid rate than ozone can be created through natural processes. The degradation of the ozone layer leads to higher levels of ultraviolet radiation reaching Earth's surface. This in turn can lead to a greater incidence of skin cancer, cataracts, and impaired immune systems, and is expected also to reduce crop yields, diminish the productivity of the oceans, and possibly to contribute to the decline of amphibious populations that is occurring around the world. The chemicals most responsible for the destruction of the ozone layer are chlorofluorocarbons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl bromide, methyl chloroform, and halons. Chlorofluorocarbons have long been widely used as coolants in refrigerators and air conditioners and as foaming agents, solvents, and aerosol propellants. Carbon tetrachloride and methyl chloroform are solvents used for essential industrial applications. In the United States, carbon tetrachloride is now used almost entirely as a feedstock for the production of chlorofluorocarbons. Hydrogenated CFCs (HCFCs) have many of the same uses as CFCs and are increasingly employed as interim substitutes for CFCs. Halons have been used in fire extinguishers. Long predicted, the degradation of the ozone layer was dramatically confirmed when a large hole in the layer over Antarctica was reported in 1985. Smaller but significant stratospheric decreases have been seen over more populated regions of the Earth. Subsequent research

established that industrial chemicals are responsible for the observed depletions of ozone over Antarctica and play a major role in global ozone losses. Human Activities Chlorine and bromine are emitted to the atmosphere from both natural and human sources. These very stable human-made chemicals are not soluble in water and are not broken down chemically in the lower atmosphere. Thus, they survive long enough to reach the stratosphere. The CFCs and carbon tetrachloride are relatively unreactive in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere) and move unscathed into the stratosphere where they are decomposed by intense sunlight, releasing chlorine to catalyze the destruction of ozone molecules. Certain ozone-depleting chemicals (HCFC-22 and methyl chloroform) are more reactive in the troposphere and deliver less of their initial chlorine load to the stratosphere. Halons also are generally reactive in the troposphere and deliver only a fraction of their initial load of bromine to the stratosphere, but bromine is 40 times more efficient at destroying ozone than chlorine. Increasing attention is being focused on the ozonedepleting role of methyl bromide, which has three potentially major human sources (soil fumigation, biomass burning, and the exhaust of automobiles using leaded gasoline), in addition to a natural oceanic source. U.S. production of ozone-depleting gases has declined significantly since 1988, and has now reached levels (measured by their ozone depletion potential) comparable to those of 30 years ago. Because of the international agreements to decrease production and ultimately to phase out production of CFCs and halons, total equivalent chlorine (total chlorine and bromine, with adjustments to account for bromines higher ozone depletion potential) in the troposphere peaked between 1992 and 1994 and has since decreased. Total chlorine abundance in the stratosphere is at or near peak; stratospheric bromine is likely still increasing. Increasing ozone losses are predicted for the remainder of the decade, with gradual recovery by the mid-21st century. State of the Environment Worldwide monitoring has shown that stratospheric ozone has been decreasing for the past two decades or more. The average loss across the globe totaled about 3 percent at northern middle latitudes and 6 percent at southern middle latitudes since the mid-1960s, with cumulative losses of about 10 percent in the winter and spring and a cumulative 8 percent loss in the summer and autumn over North America, Europe, and Australia. Since the late 1970s, an ozone hole has formed over Antarctica each austral spring (September / October), in which up to 66 percent of the total ozone is depleted. Record low global ozone levels were recorded in 1992 and 1993. These lows were due, in part, to large amounts of stratospheric sulfate particles from the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991; the sulfate particles temporarily accelerated the ozone depletion caused by human-made chlorine and bromine compounds.

As expected from the increasing use of CFC substitutes, observations from several sites have revealed rising concentrations of these compounds in the atmosphere. These substitutes have short tropospheric lifetimes, which tends to reduce their impact on stratospheric ozone as compared to CFCs and halons. However, some are potent greenhouse gases. Ozone Depletion Over Antarctica, Mean October Values at Halley Station, 19562003 The link between a decrease in stratospheric ozone and an increase in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface has been strengthened during the last several years by simultaneous measurements of total ozone and UV radiation in Antarctica and the southern part of South America during the period of the seasonal ozone "hole." The measurements show that when total ozone decreases, UV increases. Furthermore, elevated surface UV levels in mid-to-high latitudes were observed in the Northern Hemisphere in 1992 and 1993, corresponding to the low ozone levels of those years. However, the lack of long-term monitoring of surface UV levels and uncertainties introduced by clouds and ground-level pollutants have precluded the unequivocal identification of a long-term trend in surface UV radiation. The graph to the left shows mean October values of total ozone over Halley Station in Antarctica from 1956 through 2003, and the graphic below shows Halley's location in northwest Antartica. In 1956, the mean October total ozone was 311 dobson units (DU). Mean total ozone in October reached a high of 322 DU in 1962, and a low of 122 DU in 1993. By October 2003, mean total ozone was 159 DU. Response Reacting to the environmental threat of ozone depletion, the nations of the world came together to create a global treaty, the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer. The agreement entered into force in 1988 and the subsequent Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer entered into force in 1989. Currently over 180 countries are parties to the Montreal Protocol. The parties to the Protocol decided on a timetable for countries to reduce and to end their production and consumption of eight major halocarbons. The Protocol also provides a ten-year delay in this timetable for those developing countries consuming less than 0.3 kilograms per capita. The Montreal Protocol timetable was accelerated in 1990 and 1992. Amendments were adopted in response to scientific evidence that stratospheric ozone is depleting faster than predicted. As part of an effort to speed the phase-out of production and consumption of ozone-depleting chemicals, the parties to the Protocol decided to provide technology transfer and funds from industrial to developing countries. Under the accelerated schedule, the production of most controlled gases is to cease by January 1, 1996. The developing

countries, however, may receive residual production from industrialized countries, not to exceed 15 percent of 1986 levels. Some individual governments have committed to even earlier phaseout deadlines. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ( EPA), under authority of the U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, issued regulations for the phaseout of production and importation of ozone-depleting chemicals controlled under the Protocol through a marketable permit program. In addition, EPA established controls on refrigerant recycling to prevent emissions in both motor vehicle and stationary systems , a ban on nonessential products, labeling requirements, a program to review safe alternative substances, and requirements to revise federal procurement specifications. Under the regulations, surplus or recycled substances can in general be stored to service existing machinery. Because of the importance of the ozone layer and the complexity of the chemical reactions affecting it, the condition of the ozone layer must continue to be monitored. Acknowledgements: This bulletin is first in a series of environment indicator bulletins covering major topics of environmental protection. It is a product of a collaboration between the World Resources Institute and the Environmental Indicators Team of EPA's Office of Policy, Division of Environmental Statistics and Information. This report was prepared in collaboration with the EPA Office of Air and Radiation's Global Programs Division ( GPD). The World Wide Web version was created by GPD based on the original hard copy. For Further Information: For additional information, please contact the contacts for each chart or Ms. Susan Auby, Mail Code 2152, Office of Environmental Information, USEPA, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20460. Phone (202) 260-4901, e-mail: auby.susan@epa.gov. A separate technical supplement provides source data, references, and contact information for this bulletin.