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Market Outlook

May 3, 2012

Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open flat to negative tracking negative cues
from Asian markets. Asian stocks fell as growth in Chinas services industries
slowed and employment reports from Europe to the U.S. and New Zealand fueled
concern the global economy is faltering.

Domestic Indices

US stocks turned a mixed performance on Wednesday trading session. The early


weakness on Wall Street came following the release of a report showing much
weaker than expected private sector job growth in the month of April. The private
sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs in April against an estimate of
183,000 jobs. While April's increase was the twenty-seventh consecutive monthly
advance, it nonetheless reflected a deceleration in the recent pace of hiring.
Investors would now keenly watch out for the jobless claims data due for release
today.
Indian shares ended modestly lower on Wednesday, erasing early gains, as
investors waited for the government's clarification on GAAR before deciding on the
future course of action. Weak PMI and infrastructure output data and growing
weakness in the rupee, which fell below 53 to touch a near 4-month low against
the dollar today, also weighed on investor sentiment.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,333 / 5,248 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 17,401 17,500 / 5,270 5,302 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
17,333 / 5,248 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
17,234 17,166 / 5,217 5,195 levels.
S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

SENSEX

17,166

17,234

17,333

17,401

17,500

NIFTY

5,195

5,217

5,248

5,270

5,302

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

(0.1)

Nifty

(0.2)

(9.0)

5,239

MID CAP

(0.3)

(16.9)

6,299

SMALL CAP

0.2

13.3

6,778

BSE HC

0.0

2.4

6,798

BSE PSU

(0.6)

(40.4)

7,209

BANKEX

0.3

(16.9) 17,302

31.7 11,860

AUTO

(1.7) (182.6) 10,463

METAL

(0.4)

(40.2) 11,026

OIL & GAS

(0.6)

(46.0)

7,919

0.7

41.8

5,746

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE IT
Global Indices
Dow Jones

Chg (%)

(0.1)

(10.8) 13,269

0.3

9.4

3,060

(0.9)

(54.1)

5,758

Nikkei

0.3

29.3

9,380

Hang Seng

1.0

Straits Times

0.7

21.0

2,999

Shanghai Com

1.8

42.1

2,438

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

0.5

0.2

$47.6

WIT

(0.2)

(0.0)

$9.6

IBN

(1.9)

(0.6)

$33.4

HDB

(1.2)

(0.4)

$33.4

NASDAQ
FTSE

Indian ADRs

INFY

Indices

Chg (%)

214.9 21,309

News Analysis

Auto sales numbers April 2012


4QFY2012 Result Reviews Bharti Airtel, HMCL
4QFY2012 Result Previews Marico, Aventis Pharma, KEC International

Advances / Declines

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

MTD

YTD

FII

2,114

1,573

541

(1,865)

43,461

725

876

(152)

(676)

(6,249)

FII Derivatives (May 02, 2012)


` cr

Purch

Index Futures

1,064

984

80

8,598

Stock Futures

903

1,029

(125)

20,433

Sales

Net

Open Interest

Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company

Losers

Price (`)

chg (%)

Sun TV Network

301

5.1

Titan Inds

243

4.3

88

4.2

Tata Motors

MMTC

805

3.6

United Breweries

555

3.6

India Cements

www.angelbroking.com

NSE

Advances

1,333

660

Declines

1,465

792

135

91

Unchanged

Net Inflows (April 30, 2012)

MFs

BSE

Company

Price (`)

chg (%)

Ashok Leyland

31

(5.4)

Pipavav Defence

80

(4.2)

305

(3.8)

Manappuram Fin.

29

(3.7)

Sintex Industries

71

(3.7)

Volumes (` cr)
BSE

1,805

NSE

9,876

Market Outlook
May 3, 2012

Auto sales numbers April 2012


Ashok Leyland (AL)
Ashok Leyland reported 57% yoy increase in total volumes to 8,686 units largely
on account of base effect in the MHCV segment and also due to incremental sales
from recently launched small commercial vehicle Dost. Excluding Dost volumes
jumped 17% yoy during the month.

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT)


BJAUT reported a modest 4% yoy growth in total volumes as the commercial
vehicle segment posted a 13% yoy decline during the month. Motorcycle sales too
posted a moderate 6% yoy growth to 342,324 units. The volume momentum in the
motorcycle segment continues to be impacted by general slowdown in the sector
and increasing competitive activity especially from Honda Motorcycles and
Scooters India. Exports too remained subdued and registered 7% yoy growth
during the month.

Result Reviews
Bharti Airtel (CMP: `318/TP: - /Upside: -)
Bharti Airtel (Bharti) reported a mixed performance for 3QFY2012, with operating
margins coming in ahead of our expectations while profitability came lower than
ours as well as street expectations due to higher than expected forex losses and
interest expenditure. Bhartis consolidated revenue stood at `18,477cr, up just
1.4% qoq. Revenue from mobile services for India came in at `10,510cr, up 3.3%
qoq on the back of 5.1% qoq growth in overall network traffic and 2.8% qoq
increase in MOU to 431min. However, APRM declined by 1.7% qoq to `0.44/min.
Zain Africas revenue stood at `5,308cr, down 0.9% qoq due to MOU as well as
ARPU declining sequentially by 2.1% and ~4.1% to 122min and US$6.8/month.
EBITDA margin of mobile India as well as Africa business increased by 15bp and
114bp qoq to 34.0% and 27.8%, respectively. Consolidated EBITDA margin of the
company grew by 100bp qoq to 33.3%. PAT came in at 1,006cr, down0.5% qoq,
negatively impacted by higher interest cost of `1057cr (due to forex fluctuations)
vs. 788cr in 3QFY2012 and higher tax rates. Overall the results of Bharti were
modest as the company continued to maintain its leadership with an increasing
subscriber base. But regulatory uncertainty remains an overhang of the stock as
the telecom industry is currently going through various operational and policy
uncertainties. We remain Neutral on the stock.

Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

80,967

33.1 6,791 17.9

11.5

17.8

2.0

6.5

2.2

FY2014E

88,684

33.4 8,367 22.0

12.5

14.4

1.8

5.5

1.8

Note: Estimates are subject to change post conference call

www.angelbroking.com

P/E P/BV

Market Outlook
May 3, 2012

Hero MotoCorp (CMP: `2,245/TP: - /Upside: -)


Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) reported in-line net sales growth of 11.9% yoy (flat qoq)
to `6,035cr driven by volume growth of 8.1% yoy and increase in average net
realization by 3.1% yoy. HMCLs volume performance was led by 7.4% and 17%
yoy increase in motorcycle and scooter sales, respectively. On the operating front,
EBITDA margins (adjusted for change in accounting for royalty payments) declined
20bp yoy to 11.9% primarily on account of increase in raw-material expenses.
Further savings in employee expenses and other expenses supported the margins.
Net profit however, jumped 20.3% yoy to `604cr as higher other income and
lower tax rate benefitted the profitability. At the CMP of `2,245, HMCL is
reasonably valued at 14.9x FY2014E earnings (historical multiple - 15x). Thus we
maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

PAT

EPS

ROE

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

P/E P/BV
(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2013E

26,161

15.4 2,868 143.6

56.3

15.6

7.5

9.0

1.3

FY2014E

29,681

15.3 3,007 150.6

43.8

14.9

5.8

7.3

1.0

Result Previews
Marico
Marico is expected to announce its 4QFY2012results. For the quarter, we expect
Marico to report 21.7% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `910cr, driven by
improved volumes and realizations. We expect OPM to contract by 211bp yoy to
13% due to increased input costs. Maricos earnings for the quarter are expected
to decline by 2.1% yoy to `70cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the
stock.

Aventis Pharma
For the 2QCY2012, Aventis Pharma is expected to post a net sales and profits of
around `312cr and `51.5cr, registering a yoy growth of 12.9% and 1.8%. On the
operating front, the margins are expected to dip by 110bps to end the period at
14.6%. We maintain our neutral view on the stock.

KEC International
For 4QFY2012, KEC International (KEC) is expected to register strong growth of
22.0% yoy to `1,902cr on the back of strong execution of its robust order book.
On the EBITDA front, the companys margin is expected to contract by ~250bp
yoy to 8.0% because of margin pressures in the domestic business (as was the case
in the previous quarter). Nonetheless, increased contribution from SAE Towers is
likely to support the companys margins. Interest cost is expected to remain at
elevated levels, resulting in a yoy decline of 13.2% at the earnings level to `68.2cr.
We recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `72.

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 3, 2012

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate


Bank of Baroda - (04/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

4Q FY12E

4Q FY11

y-o-y (%)

3Q FY12

q-o-q (%)

1,306

1,294

1,290

Grasim Industries Ltd - Consolidated (05/05/2012)


Particulars (` cr)

4Q FY12E

4Q FY11

y-o-y (%)

3Q FY12

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

6,942

6,390

6,260

11

EBITDA

1,541

1,650

(7)

1,413

EBITDA margin (%)

22.2

25.8

Net profit

757

865

22.6
(12)

669

Economic and Political News

India Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March 2012
TRAI allows MSOs to charge a carriage fee from broadcasters
Oil ministry seeks clarifications from RIL on CBM gas price
Vodafone ignored CBDT advice on tax liability: Government

Corporate News

BGR Energy bags `1,855cr order from Meja Urja Nigam


Petronet signs pact for `4,500cr Gangavaram LNG terminal
Tata Motors ends distribution alliance with Fiat
Kingfisher staff likely to move Labour Court over non-payment of salaries

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

13

Market Outlook
May 03, 2012

Result Calendar
Date

Company

May 03, 2012

Marico, Aventis, KEC International, Finolex Cables

May 04, 2012

Bank of Baroda, Corporation Bank, ITNL, D B Corp, ITD Cementation

May 05, 2012

Grasim Inds, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Syndicate Bank, UCO Bank, United Bank, Bank of Maharashtra

May 06, 2012

May 07, 2012

HDFC, Bosch India, GSK Pharma, GlaxoSmith Con, Andhra Bank, South Ind.Bank

May 08, 2012

Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Hindalco, IDFC, Shriram Trans., Central Bank, CESC, Dena Bank, CEAT

May 09, 2012

Punjab Natl.Bank, Ranbaxy, ABB, Union Bank, IRB Infra, NIIT

May 10, 2012

NTPC, Cipla, Lupin, Canara Bank, Cadila Healthcare, Sintex, Apollo Tyres, HEG

May 11, 2012

Dr Reddy's, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, Thermax, Goodyear

May 12, 2012

Madhucon Proj

May 13, 2012

May 14, 2012

Mundra Port, Ashok Leyland, Indraprasth Gas

May 15, 2012

May 16, 2012

J K Lakshmi Cements

May 17, 2012

Bajaj Auto

May 18, 2012

St Bk of India

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar


Date

May 03, 2012


May 04, 2012

May 10, 2012

May 11, 2012

Country

Event Description

US

Initial Jobless claims

Euro Zone

ECB announces interest rates

Germany

PMI Services

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

US

Unnemployment rate

China

Exports YoY%

UK

BOE Announces rates

UK

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported

Estimated

Thousands

21-Apr-12

388.00

376.50

Apr-12

1.00

1.00

Value

Apr-12

52.60

52.60

Thousands

Mar-12

120.00

161.00

Mar-12

8.20

8.20

% Change

Mar-12

8.90

8.50

% Ratio

May-12

0.50

0.50

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Feb-12

(2.30)

--

India

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Feb-12

4.10

--

US

Producer Price Index (mom)

% Change

Mar-12

--

--

China

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Mar-12

11.90

12.00

China

% Change

Mar-12

3.60

3.40

% Change

Mar-12

6.89

--

% Change

Mar-12

0.30

--

May 14, 2012

India

May 15, 2012

US

Consumer Price Index (YoY)


Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Consumer price index (mom)

Euro Zone

Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

% Change

Dec-11

(0.30)

--

Germany

GDP nsa (YoY)

% Change

Dec-11

1.50

--

Euro Zone

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Mar-12

2.70

--

US

Industrial Production

Mar-12

--

--

US

Housing Starts

Thousands

Mar-12

654.00

--

US

Building permits

Thousands

Mar-12

764.00

--

UK

Jobless claims change

% Change

Mar-12

3.60

--

May 16, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Market Strategy
May 03, 2012

Macro watch

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends


(%)

Exhibit 2: IIP trends


(%)

9.8

10.0

12.0

9.4

9.0
8.0

7.5

8.3
7.8

7.6

7.4

8.0
7.7
6.9

5.8

5.3

6.0

7.0

6.0

4.0
6.1

5.9

6.2
3.7

4.1

3.4

2.5

2.5
1.1

2.0

(6.0)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)

Mfg. PMI

60.0
9.7

9.6

9.5

9.4

9.8

10.0

9.9

7.7

8.0

Feb-12

Jan-12

Services PMI

58.0

9.5
6.9

7.0

56.0
6.9

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

(%)

Exports yoy growth

Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Imports yoy growth

90
75

Reverse Repo rate

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

Jul-11

May-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Jun-11

Oct-11

48.0

Sep-11

0.0

Aug-11

50.0

Jul-11

2.0

May-11

52.0

Apr-11

4.0

Jun-11

54.0

6.0

Apr-11

10.0

Dec-11

(5.0)

Source: CSO, Angel Research

12.0

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

Jul-11

Jun-11

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

2QFY10

1QFY10

4QFY09

3QFY09

(4.0)

May-11

(2.0)

5.0

Apr-11

Mar-11

6.0

9.5

9.4

10.0

8.5

CRR
8.00

8.00

60
7.00

45
30

6.00
4.75

5.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

Jul-11

Jun-11

May-11

4.00

Apr-11

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

Jul-11

Jun-11

May-11

Apr-11

Apr-12

15

(15)

7.00

Market Outlook
May 03, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Buy

115

133

2,243

1,570

1,884

17.9

17.9

9.8

11.1

11.8

10.4

2.8

2.3

25.9

24.3

1.4

1.1

United Phosphorus

Buy

120

210

5,522

7,797

8,150

19.7

19.7

16.0

18.6

7.5

6.4

1.1

1.0

16.1

16.4

0.7

0.7

Amara Raja Batteries

Buy

289

345

2,470

2,691

3,032

15.6

15.5

29.4

32.8

9.8

8.8

2.3

1.9

26.5

23.6

0.9

0.7

Apollo Tyres

Accumulate

88

100

4,428

13,580

15,007

10.1

10.2

10.5

12.5

8.3

7.0

1.4

1.2

21.8

30.7

0.5

0.4

Ashok Leyland

Buy

31

37

8,115

15,008

16,906

9.5

9.5

2.6

3.1

11.9

9.9

2.5

2.1

15.5

17.0

0.6

0.5

Automotive Axle

Neutral

516

779

1,211

1,390

11.6

11.4

48.1

55.3

10.7

9.3

2.6

2.1

26.8

25.2

0.7

0.6

Bajaj Auto

Buy

1,593

1,888

46,101

22,362

25,633

19.8

19.0

115.9

125.9

13.7

12.7

5.4

4.3

44.4

37.9

1.7

1.4

Bharat Forge

Accumulate

326

372

7,587

7,173

7,998

16.3

16.5

22.3

26.6

14.6

12.3

2.8

2.4

21.0

21.0

1.1

1.0

Bosch India

Neutral

8,800

27,629

9,335

10,564

18.3

18.3

394.5

439.3

22.3

20.0

4.5

3.7

20.1

18.7

2.6

2.2

CEAT

Buy

106

140

364

5,057

5,620

5.4

5.6

22.2

31.1

4.8

3.4

0.5

0.5

11.9

16.8

0.3

0.3

Exide Industries

Buy

126

155

10,672

5,812

6,710

16.2

16.5

7.6

8.9

16.6

14.1

3.1

2.6

19.4

19.8

1.5

1.2

FAG Bearings

Accumulate

1,512

1,594

2,513

1,531

1,748

18.8

18.5

118.0

132.8

12.8

11.4

2.8

2.3

24.0

21.9

1.4

1.1

Hero Motocorp

Neutral

2,245

44,830

26,161

29,681

15.4

15.3

143.6

150.6

15.6

14.9

7.6

5.8

56.4

43.8

1.4

1.1

JK Tyre

Buy

84

113

345

8,058

9,025

5.4

5.5

24.8

32.2

3.4

2.6

0.4

0.3

11.4

13.2

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

715

802

43,896

35,095

40,213

10.7

10.5

44.6

48.7

16.0

14.7

2.8

2.5

18.8

18.1

0.9

0.8

1,332

1,510

38,486

42,683

48,736

7.1

7.5

86.6

100.6

15.4

13.2

2.2

1.9

15.3

15.5

0.7

0.6

177

216

6,864

11,167

12,516

9.5

10.0

11.3

14.4

15.6

12.3

3.4

2.8

23.3

24.7

0.7

0.6

32

193

1,225

1,393

8.5

8.2

4.2

5.0

7.7

6.5

0.8

0.8

10.3

11.8

0.4

0.3

305

328

81,998 191,183 213,150

12.6

12.6

38.7

42.9

7.9

7.1

2.8

2.2

39.8

33.9

0.5

0.5

42

56

1,972

7,965

8,897

6.4

6.3

5.0

5.6

8.3

7.4

1.5

1.3

18.9

18.3

0.2

0.2

Sell

802

503

16,992

8,926

10,220

7.7

7.5

18.6

20.9

43.0

38.3

5.9

5.2

14.5

14.5

1.9

1.6

Sell

334

274

2,409

4,170

5,396

11.5

10.4

27.2

30.4

12.3

11.0

2.0

1.8

17.3

17.4

1.2

1.1

BHEL

Neutral

224

54,790

46,344

46,916

18.3

18.6

23.5

24.1

9.5

9.3

1.9

1.7

21.3

18.9

1.1

1.0

Blue Star

Buy

185

221

1,665

3,250

3,551

5.9

5.9

12.4

15.8

14.9

11.7

3.0

2.6

21.2

23.8

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

131

164

8,413

12,936

14,101

9.6

10.0

10.9

11.7

12.1

11.2

2.1

1.8

18.4

17.3

0.7

0.6

Jyoti Structures

Buy

45

67

368

2,622

2,801

10.6

11.0

10.9

13.4

4.1

3.3

0.5

0.4

12.7

13.9

0.3

0.3

KEC International

Buy

57

72

1,467

6,865

7,650

8.5

8.7

9.7

12.1

5.9

4.7

1.1

0.9

27.6

27.0

0.5

0.4

LMW

Buy

1,624

2,609

1,830

2,663

3,130

12.8

12.8

185.0

217.4

8.8

7.5

1.7

1.5

21.2

21.7

0.2

0.2

Thermax

Neutral

442

5,261

5,473

5,497

10.1

9.8

30.4

28.7

14.5

15.4

2.8

2.5

20.5

16.9

0.8

0.8

Maruti

Accumulate

Motherson Sumi

Buy

Subros

Neutral

Tata Motors

Accumulate

TVS Motor

Buy

ABB*
BGR Energy

Capital Goods

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 03, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Cement
ACC

Neutral

1,211

22,742

11,018

12,663

19.9

21.2

70.7

81.2

17.1

14.9

3.0

2.7

18.0

19.0

1.8

1.5

Ambuja Cements

Neutral

148

22,797

10,035

11,504

23.5

23.8

10.1

10.6

14.7

14.1

2.9

2.6

18.5

19.4

1.9

1.5

India Cements

Neutral

88

2,688

4,423

4,906

18.2

18.8

9.9

12.7

8.9

6.9

0.8

0.7

8.6

10.5

0.9

0.8

J K Lakshmi Cements

Buy

64

79

784

1,880

2,201

19.0

22.6

12.2

16.4

5.3

3.9

0.6

0.5

11.9

14.3

0.6

0.9

Madras Cements

Neutral

149

3,555

3,434

3,777

25.5

26.1

14.1

18.1

10.6

8.3

1.5

1.3

15.2

16.9

1.7

1.4

Shree Cements

Neutral

2,825

9,842

5,552

6,193

25.7

26.0

130.3

182.0

21.7

15.5

4.5

3.8

19.1

22.3

1.5

1.1

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,414

38,765

20,116

22,655

21.3

22.5

82.1

97.5

17.2

14.5

2.7

2.4

16.8

17.4

1.8

1.8

210

302

1,106

2,014

2,294

22.4

22.4

28.4

30.8

7.4

6.8

1.0

0.9

14.1

13.3

2.3

2.6

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

15

277

2,526

2,792

5.7

6.6

1.8

2.8

8.2

5.3

0.5

0.4

5.6

8.2

0.3

0.3

Hind. Const.

Neutral

21

1,283

4,239

4,522

11.1

11.8

(1.8)

(0.8)

(11.8)

(27.1)

1.2

1.4

(9.5)

(4.7)

1.3

1.2

IRB Infra

Buy

168

228

5,582

3,821

4,582

42.3

40.2

15.0

16.9

11.2

9.9

1.7

1.5

16.3

15.9

3.1

2.8

ITNL

Buy

185

265

3,596

6,619

7,263

23.8

24.2

24.7

26.2

7.5

7.1

1.2

1.0

17.0

15.7

2.1

2.2

IVRCL Infra

Buy

61

79

1,627

5,758

6,860

9.2

9.2

4.7

6.0

13.0

10.1

0.8

0.7

6.0

7.3

0.7

0.7

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

74

104

15,704

16,017

18,359

24.4

23.5

4.2

5.0

17.6

14.7

1.5

1.4

8.8

9.7

2.3

2.0

Larsen & Toubro

Buy

1,215

1,641

74,410

60,258

69,900

12.1

11.5

70.7

76.3

17.2

15.9

2.6

2.3

16.1

15.2

1.4

1.2

Madhucon Proj

Buy

55

84

403

2,503

2,903

10.7

10.7

5.8

6.6

9.4

8.3

0.6

0.6

6.6

7.0

0.7

0.7

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

47

76

1,215

5,790

7,022

9.2

9.5

3.5

5.4

13.6

8.8

0.5

0.5

3.7

5.6

0.8

0.8

Patel Engg.

Neutral

106

742

3,609

3,836

13.1

13.1

14.0

14.6

7.6

7.3

0.5

0.4

6.3

6.1

1.1

1.1

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

52

1,734

10,592

12,193

8.4

8.4

2.9

4.6

18.0

11.5

0.6

0.5

3.9

3.1

0.6

0.6

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

138

199

2,077

2,989

3,315

10.6

10.6

10.2

11.3

13.6

12.2

2.2

1.9

17.6

16.3

0.9

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

234

316

1,156

6,732

7,902

9.3

9.6

27.2

35.1

8.6

6.7

0.9

0.8

11.0

12.6

0.5

0.5

Allahabad Bank

Accumulate

170

193

8,513

7,700

8,677

3.4

3.3

37.4

40.9

4.6

4.2

0.8

0.7

19.0

17.0

Andhra Bank

Neutral

119

6,653

5,284

5,998

3.3

3.2

23.6

27.0

5.0

4.4

0.8

0.7

16.5

16.7

Axis Bank

Buy

1,102

1,587

45,543

16,157

19,557

3.2

3.2

116.4

139.1

9.5

7.9

1.8

1.5

20.0

20.3

Bank of Baroda

Buy

757

943

29,656

16,013

18,849

2.7

2.7

131.4

153.3

5.8

4.9

1.0

0.9

19.7

19.2

Bank of India

Accumulate

348

386

19,956

13,558

15,551

2.5

2.4

54.9

63.1

6.3

5.5

1.1

0.9

16.8

16.9

Bank of Maharashtra

Buy

54

62

3,172

3,665

4,107

3.5

3.5

10.7

13.5

5.0

4.0

0.8

0.7

17.8

17.5

Canara Bank

Buy

435

532

19,286

12,120

14,009

2.2

2.2

85.7

95.4

5.1

4.6

0.8

0.7

17.2

16.7

Central Bank

Reduce

98

92

7,218

6,860

7,934

2.4

2.4

13.1

19.9

7.5

4.9

0.9

0.9

10.5

13.8

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 03, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Financials
Corporation Bank

Buy

408

508

6,047

5,361

5,995

2.2

2.1

108.3

111.5

3.8

3.7

0.7

0.6

17.9

16.2

Dena Bank

Buy

95

118

3,331

3,003

3,366

3.0

2.9

23.2

25.6

4.1

3.7

0.7

0.6

18.0

16.9

Federal Bank

Neutral

419

7,168

2,766

3,163

3.4

3.3

49.5

57.2

8.5

7.3

1.1

1.0

14.0

14.5

HDFC

Neutral

672

99,265

7,244

8,625

3.3

3.3

31.2

37.2

21.6

18.1

4.2

3.8

34.2

31.3

HDFC Bank

Neutral

550

129,021

21,831

27,477

4.3

4.3

28.3

35.5

19.4

15.5

3.7

3.2

20.8

22.1

ICICI Bank

Buy

882

1,183

101,331

22,209

26,512

2.8

2.8

67.9

81.1

13.0

10.9

1.6

1.5

14.7

16.0

IDBI Bank

Buy

101

117

9,974

8,004

9,589

1.9

2.0

19.9

23.9

5.1

4.2

0.7

0.6

13.8

14.9

Indian Bank

Accumulate

221

240

9,476

6,469

7,244

3.5

3.3

45.5

48.8

4.9

4.5

0.9

0.8

19.6

18.2

IOB

Buy

89

104

7,113

7,328

8,264

2.5

2.5

15.9

21.1

5.6

4.2

0.6

0.6

12.7

13.9

J & K Bank

Neutral

910

4,410

2,420

2,792

3.5

3.6

178.0

195.8

5.1

4.7

0.9

0.8

19.5

18.6

LIC Housing Finance

Accumulate

258

286

12,268

2,108

2,607

2.6

2.6

24.5

30.6

10.6

8.5

2.0

1.7

20.1

21.4

Oriental Bank

Buy

233

285

6,808

6,431

7,315

2.7

2.6

54.4

63.8

4.3

3.7

0.6

0.5

13.6

14.3

Punjab Natl.Bank

Buy

866

1,138

27,426

20,708

24,094

3.5

3.5

156.3

178.7

5.5

4.8

1.0

0.8

19.7

18.5

South Ind.Bank

Neutral

24

2,715

1,368

1,557

2.8

2.7

3.7

3.9

6.5

6.1

1.2

1.0

19.1

17.7

St Bk of India

Buy

2,139

2,593

143,567

69,568

81,445

3.7

3.7

220.9

269.8

9.7

7.9

1.6

1.4

18.9

19.1

Syndicate Bank

Buy

106

128

6,363

7,069

7,961

3.1

3.0

23.3

27.5

4.6

3.9

0.7

0.6

17.4

17.2

UCO Bank

Neutral

78

4,913

5,727

6,443

2.5

2.5

17.8

18.8

4.4

4.2

0.9

0.8

17.8

16.2

Union Bank

Buy

227

266

11,889

10,352

11,988

2.9

2.9

40.7

49.5

5.6

4.6

0.9

0.8

16.8

17.4

United Bank

Buy

68

87

2,437

3,666

4,128

2.9

2.9

18.4

21.7

3.7

3.1

0.6

0.5

15.9

16.0

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

58

2,763

2,668

3,001

2.2

2.2

10.1

11.7

5.8

5.0

0.8

0.7

13.2

13.7

Yes Bank

Buy

348

470

12,296

3,209

4,144

2.7

2.8

33.9

41.5

10.3

8.4

2.2

1.8

23.1

23.3

3,533

33,893

10,961

12,773

16.3

16.3

120.3

142.5

29.4

24.8

9.7

7.7

36.9

34.7

3.0

2.5

559

650

6,671

5,906

6,856

6.9

7.0

22.3

28.3

25.0

19.8

10.2

7.6

45.2

44.1

1.1

1.0

1,118

15,198

3,007

3,417

21.1

22.1

37.7

42.6

29.6

26.3

35.3

28.5

129.4

120.1

4.9

4.3

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

Britannia

Buy

Colgate

Neutral

Dabur India

Neutral

110

19,154

6,010

6,929

17.4

17.6

4.4

5.2

24.9

21.2

9.4

7.6

41.4

42.1

3.2

2.8

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

2,778

11,684

3,111

2,687

16.9

15.8

100.6

86.1

27.6

32.3

8.4

10.2

33.3

33.8

3.4

4.0

Godrej Consumer

Reduce

548

512

18,648

5,904

6,905

17.8

18.1

22.6

26.9

24.3

20.3

6.6

5.4

29.9

36.3

3.3

2.9

HUL

Neutral

425

91,864

25,546

29,031

15.2

15.3

14.1

16.1

30.1

26.4

23.0

28.4

84.3

76.7

3.4

3.0

ITC

Neutral

245

191,160

28,955

33,595

35.9

35.7

9.2

10.5

26.7

23.3

8.5

7.0

34.8

33.1

6.3

5.4

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 03, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

OPM(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

EPS ( )
FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FMCG
Marico

Neutral

180

11,060

4,669

5,467

13.0

12.9

6.8

8.2

26.6

22.0

7.2

5.7

30.5

28.8

2.4

2.0

Nestle*

Neutral

4,606

44,407

8,731

10,539

21.0

21.4

119.3

147.9

38.6

31.1

23.7

16.1

73.0

61.6

5.1

4.2

Tata Global

Accumulate

119

136

7,381

7,011

7,712

9.7

10.0

6.0

7.1

20.1

16.7

1.8

1.8

8.9

10.2

0.9

0.9

HCL Tech

Accumulate

518

560

35,875

22,792

25,743

17.4

17.4

37.8

43.0

13.7

12.0

3.0

2.5

22.3

21.3

1.5

1.3

Hexaware

Neutral

128

3,794

1,821

2,105

19.0

18.6

9.8

10.7

13.1

12.0

3.0

2.6

23.7

22.5

1.8

1.5

Infosys

Accumulate

2,471

2,792

141,907

37,615

42,491

31.1

30.6

158.5

174.5

15.6

14.2

3.5

3.0

22.5

20.8

3.1

2.6

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

168

177

1,877

1,758

1,972

17.0

16.6

16.8

18.6

10.0

9.1

1.4

1.2

13.6

13.2

0.7

0.5

KPIT Cummins

Neutral

102

1,820

2,042

2,139

15.2

14.9

9.6

10.9

10.7

9.4

1.9

1.5

19.2

18.0

0.8

0.7

Mahindra Satyam

Buy

76

89

8,908

7,142

8,042

15.4

15.0

7.7

8.3

9.9

9.2

1.4

1.2

13.8

13.0

0.9

0.7

Mindtree

Neutral

602

2,439

2,172

2,450

16.1

15.5

53.9

58.5

11.2

10.3

2.1

1.7

18.9

17.0

0.9

0.8

Mphasis

Accumulate

377

433

7,914

5,904

6,320

18.3

17.9

38.7

41.2

9.7

9.1

1.5

1.3

14.9

13.7

0.9

0.7

NIIT

Buy

44

61

726

1,105

1,200

16.4

16.9

7.5

9.2

5.8

4.8

1.0

0.9

17.6

19.0

0.4

0.2

Persistent

Neutral

375

1,501

1,109

1,224

23.3

22.4

37.2

40.1

10.1

9.4

1.6

1.4

15.4

14.5

1.0

0.9

TCS

Neutral

1,268

248,117

57,189

66,329

29.3

28.7

63.2

70.9

20.1

17.9

6.1

5.0

30.5

27.7

4.1

3.5

Tech Mahindra

Accumulate

693

750

8,835

6,030

6,511

16.3

15.7

81.1

87.0

8.6

8.0

1.7

1.4

20.1

18.0

1.4

1.2

Wipro

Accumulate

405

430

99,457

41,918

46,879

19.4

19.9

25.1

28.7

16.1

14.1

3.0

2.6

18.6

18.3

2.0

1.7

D B Corp

Buy

209

274

3,838

1,656

1,869

26.0

26.8

14.0

16.1

15.0

13.0

3.4

2.9

24.8

24.1

2.2

1.9

HT Media

Buy

125

170

2,947

2,255

2,555

17.8

18.3

10.0

12.0

12.6

10.4

1.7

1.5

14.7

15.4

1.0

0.9

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

99

137

3,123

1,499

1,642

27.4

28.8

7.6

9.1

12.9

10.9

4.4

3.9

34.6

37.7

2.0

1.9

PVR

Neutral

150

389

625

732

17.4

16.9

12.4

15.8

12.1

9.5

1.9

2.0

8.5

9.9

0.8

0.7

Sun TV Network

Neutral

301

11,862

2,135

2,458

75.2

74.4

20.9

24.0

14.4

12.5

3.4

2.8

26.0

25.1

4.5

3.7

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

434

9,223

9,232

13,557

30.8

31.1

48.0

58.6

9.0

7.4

1.2

1.0

14.5

7.5

3.1

2.2

Coal India

Neutral

346

218,451

65,654

71,756

26.8

27.3

24.0

26.3

14.4

13.1

3.9

3.2

30.4

27.0

2.3

2.0

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

20

27

701

1,984

2,074

10.6

12.0

2.7

3.3

7.5

6.2

0.4

0.2

5.2

6.2

0.5

0.4

Hind. Zinc

Accumulate

127

139

53,514

13,043

14,223

51.8

52.8

14.8

16.6

8.6

7.7

1.7

1.4

21.2

19.9

2.4

1.8

Hindalco

Accumulate

120

136

22,975

84,638

88,753

9.6

10.5

15.2

17.3

7.9

6.9

0.7

0.6

8.7

9.2

0.5

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

697

15,541

39,161

43,958

17.8

17.9

72.2

89.5

9.7

7.8

0.9

0.8

10.1

11.4

0.7

0.6

MOIL

Neutral

254

4,270

979

1,061

45.7

46.8

24.5

26.6

10.4

9.6

1.6

1.4

16.1

15.8

2.2

1.9

Monnet Ispat

Buy

479

585

3,082

2,986

3,908

22.1

28.9

50.5

83.4

9.5

5.7

1.2

1.0

13.5

19.2

1.9

1.3

IT

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 03, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY13E

OPM(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

EPS ( )
FY13E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Metals & Mining


Nalco

Sell

NMDC

Accumulate

61

51

15,644

8,276

8,578

12.7

16.4

2.5

3.5

23.9

17.3

1.3

1.3

5.6

7.5

1.4

1.4

176

185

69,938

11,726

12,890

77.8

78.4

18.6

20.6

9.5

8.6

2.3

1.9

26.1

23.8

3.8

3.3

SAIL
Sesa Goa

Accumulate

96

102

39,756

52,461

62,935

18.0

18.8

13.2

14.5

7.3

6.6

0.9

0.8

12.4

12.3

1.1

1.0

Accumulate

188

206

16,356

9,067

9,316

35.7

35.5

44.5

44.3

4.2

4.2

0.9

0.8

23.5

19.5

0.4

0.1

Sterlite Inds

Buy

105

123

35,303

45,805

49,029

21.2

23.5

16.5

19.1

6.4

5.5

0.7

0.6

11.5

12.0

0.4

0.3

Tata Steel

Accumulate

462

503

44,885 141,358 142,265

11.1

13.7

45.8

58.9

10.1

7.9

1.0

0.9

10.0

11.7

0.6

0.6

Cairn India

Accumulate

345

372

65,751

15,513

16,074

74.0

69.7

51.1

48.6

6.8

7.1

1.1

1.0

18.3

14.8

3.1

2.3

GAIL

Buy

329

392

41,669

50,472

55,503

15.3

15.6

35.4

37.0

9.3

8.9

1.6

1.4

18.7

17.0

0.5

0.4

ONGC

Buy

267

319

228,389 148,157 150,563

37.6

39.5

31.0

33.6

8.6

7.9

1.5

1.4

18.8

18.1

1.2

1.0

Reliance Industries

Buy

743

872

243,414 325,734 328,669

10.9

11.7

65.8

70.1

11.3

10.6

1.2

1.1

11.9

11.5

0.7

0.7

Oil & Gas

Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma

Buy

54

95

1,011

1,576

1,813

15.9

16.9

8.2

9.5

6.5

5.7

2.3

1.9

35.0

34.3

0.9

0.7

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

129

175

3,753

5,243

5,767

14.6

14.6

13.8

14.7

9.3

8.8

1.1

0.5

11.4

10.9

1.1

0.9

Aventis*

Neutral

2,197

5,059

1,401

1,569

15.3

15.0

89.7

110.3

24.5

19.9

4.0

3.2

17.1

15.4

3.1

2.6

Cadila Healthcare

Buy

723

1,016

14,805

6,196

7,443

18.5

19.5

43.3

50.8

16.7

14.2

4.3

3.4

25.4

24.8

2.4

1.9

Cipla

Buy

317

380

25,489

7,006

8,164

20.0

21.2

17.0

19.0

18.7

16.7

3.4

2.9

16.8

18.2

3.6

3.1

Dr Reddy's

Neutral

1,761

29,843

9,183

10,063

25.7

25.1

92.1

89.9

19.1

19.6

4.1

3.6

22.8

18.8

3.3

3.0

Dishman Pharma

Buy

46

91

368

1,282

1,538

17.9

17.9

10.1

13.0

4.5

3.5

0.4

0.3

8.5

10.1

1.0

0.9

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

2,171

18,392

2,788

3,148

35.6

35.2

87.9

96.7

24.7

22.5

8.0

6.7

34.8

32.1

5.8

5.0

Indoco Remedies

Buy

471

665

578

685

837

15.2

15.2

55.5

66.5

8.5

7.1

1.3

1.1

16.4

16.9

1.0

0.9

Ipca labs

Buy

361

443

4,545

2,907

3,541

21.5

21.5

32.7

40.6

11.1

8.9

2.8

2.2

27.8

27.7

1.7

1.4

Lupin

Buy

546

656

24,403

8,272

9,929

19.7

20.0

29.7

32.8

18.4

16.7

4.8

3.7

25.0

22.9

3.0

2.4

Orchid Chemicals

Buy

181

270

1,276

2,143

2,508

21.8

21.8

28.3

38.1

6.4

4.8

1.3

1.0

19.3

23.4

1.5

1.2

Ranbaxy*

Neutral

500

21,091

12,023

12,264

19.9

16.9

41.1

36.9

12.2

13.5

2.6

2.3

30.0

17.6

1.5

1.4

Sun Pharma

Accumulate

598

634

61,573

9,272

11,080

40.3

36.3

26.7

28.8

22.4

20.8

4.5

3.9

22.1

20.8

5.6

4.6

CESC

Buy

252

342

3,148

4,927

5,429

23.8

23.9

41.0

46.2

6.1

5.5

0.6

0.6

10.4

10.7

1.2

1.2

GIPCL

Buy

67

98

1,010

1,557

1,573

28.7

27.5

10.4

10.2

6.4

6.6

0.7

0.6

10.5

9.6

1.1

0.9

NTPC

Buy

160

201

131,721

73,558

84,843

23.4

23.6

12.6

14.1

12.7

11.3

1.6

1.5

13.3

13.6

2.5

2.3

56

78

1,663

657

875

52.0

56.1

8.4

12.7

6.7

4.4

0.4

0.4

6.3

8.9

3.8

2.9

192

32,609

9,878

12,033

44.7

46.1

9.6

13.4

20.0

14.3

1.3

1.2

6.4

8.7

5.8

4.8

Power

Real Estate
Anant Raj

Buy

DLF

Neutral

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 03, 2012

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

80

115

3,333

2,441

3,344

53.0

46.7

21.4

25.4

3.7

3.1

0.3

0.3

8.4

9.1

3.2

2.4

Real Estate
HDIL

Buy

Telecom
Bharti Airtel

Neutral

318

120,742

80,967

88,684

33.1

33.4

17.9

22.0

17.8

14.4

2.1

1.8

11.5

12.5

2.2

1.8

Idea Cellular

Neutral

80

26,620

22,558

25,326

26.4

27.5

3.2

4.7

25.0

17.0

1.9

1.7

7.5

10.0

1.7

1.4

Rcom

Neutral

76

15,676

21,899

23,740

32.7

32.7

4.2

6.7

18.0

11.4

0.4

0.4

2.1

3.2

2.1

1.7

196

245

1,951

3,670

4,384

8.5

8.5

18.3

22.3

10.7

8.8

2.4

2.0

23.9

24.3

0.5

0.5

zOthers
Bajaj Electrical

Buy

CRISIL

Neutral

1,034

7,242

982

1,136

34.3

34.3

34.3

40.0

30.1

25.9

13.6

10.9

50.9

46.9

7.0

5.9

Finolex Cables

Buy

34

60

515

2,341

2,656

8.5

8.8

8.0

10.0

4.2

3.4

0.6

0.5

18.1

20.2

0.2

0.1

Graphite India

Buy

90

116

1,764

2,053

2,437

22.6

22.4

13.5

16.3

6.7

5.5

1.0

0.9

15.4

16.5

1.0

0.8

Greenply

Buy

211

298

509

1,800

2,047

11.1

11.6

34.1

49.6

6.2

4.3

1.1

0.9

20.2

23.7

0.5

0.4

Page Industries

Neutral

3,134

3,496

935

1,168

19.6

19.6

99.7

122.2

31.4

25.6

18.2

14.6

64.2

63.1

3.8

3.0

Sintex

Buy

71

129

1,944

5,219

5,912

16.5

16.9

15.8

21.4

4.5

3.3

0.7

0.6

14.7

17.1

0.6

0.5

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

261

439

245

1,045

1,173

12.3

12.4

61.5

73.2

4.2

3.6

0.8

0.7

20.2

20.4

0.5

0.5

SpiceJet

Neutral

28

1,245

5,384

6,443

(1.0)

4.1

(3.4)

2.4

(8.3)

11.8

(11.4)

24.0

0.4

0.4

Taj GVK

Buy

60

116

378

322

355

36.3

35.8

8.3

9.6

7.3

6.3

1.0

0.9

14.5

14.9

1.5

1.3

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 02, 2012

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
May 03, 2012

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