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COMSATS INSTITUTE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, WAH CANTT Department of Management Sciences

Research Tools and Techniques

Program: Text Book :Reference Book:BBA Semester: 5

Basic Econometrics by Damodar N. Gujarati 4th Edition An Introduction to Mathematical Analysis for Economic Theory and Econometrics by Dean Corbae, Maxwell B. Stinchcombe, Juraj Zeman (2009) Analysis of Economic Data by Professor Gary Koop (2009) Statistics and Econometrics: Methods and Applications by Ashenfelter (2003) Introduction to Statistics and Statistical Inferences Muhammad Ismail Khan (Assistant Professor in Management Sciences)

Pre-requisites: Instructor:

Course Description:This course is designed to provide students with tools and skills necessary in quantitative research. This course focuses on linear regression techniques. A good understanding will enable students to apply these techniques, as well as acquire relevant skills and knowledge of using regression analysis; the modern interpretation of regression, regression versus correlation, the concept of population regression function, the significance of stochastic disturbance term and classical normal linear regression model and confidence interval for regression coefficients. Further more this course also focuses on presenting single-equation regression models with two or three variables, including estimation and inference. This course examines how regression is used and how results are interpreted when data do not conform to some of the basic assumptions such as normality or homoscedasticity and heteroscedasticity of errors. Detailed use of SPSS and AMOS demonstrations with practical data evaluation and interpretation is the part of this course and group project is mandatory. Week-wise Breakdown

Week No. Week#1

Topics / Activities 1. Statement of theory and hypotheses

Chapter Introduction

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Week#2

2. Specification of the Mathematical Model of Consumption 3. Specification of the Econometric Model of Consumption 4. Obtaining Data 5. Estimation of the Econometric Model 6. Hypothesis Testing Single Equation Regression Models 1. Historical Origin of the Term Regression 2. The Modern Interpretation of Regression 3. Examples 4. Statistical Versus Deterministic Relationships 5. Regression Versus Causation 6. Regression Versus Correlation 1. Terminology and Notation 2. The Nature and Sources of Data for Economic Analysis: 3. Types of Data, 4. The sources of data, 5. The accuracy of data 6. A Hypothetical Example 7. The Concept of population Regression Function (PRF) 1. The Meaning of the Term Linear 2. Linearity in the Variables 3. Linearity in the Parameters 4. Stochastic Specification of PRF 5. The Significance of the Stochastic Disturbance Term 6. The Sample Regression Function (SRF) 1. The Method of Ordinary Least Squares 2. The Classical Linear Regression Model 3. The Assumptions Underlying The Method of Least Squares

The Nature of Regression Analysis

Week#3

Two-Variable Regression Analysis: Some Basic Ideas

Week#4

Two-Variable Regression Analysis: Some Basic Ideas Two-Variable Regression Analysis: The Problem of Estimation Two-Variable Regression Analysis: The Problem of Estimation Two-Variable Regression Analysis: The Problem of Estimation

Week#5

Week#6

1. The Coefficient of Determination 2. A Measure of Goodness of Fit 3. A Numerical Example

Week#7

1. Detailed Demo of SPSS software with numerical evaluation and interpretation of data

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Week#8

Use of SPSS presentations to interpret few data tables. Two-Variable Regression Analysis: The Problem of Estimation Two-Variable Regression Analysis: The Problem of Estimation Two-Variable Regression Analysis: The Problem of Estimation Classical Normal Linear Regression Model (CNLRM)

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1. Derivation of Least-Squares Estimates 2. Linearity and Unbiasedness properties of LeastSquares Estimators 1. Variances and Standard Errors of Least-Squares Estimators 2. Co variances between Alpha and Beta 3. The Least Square Estimator of Sigma Square 1. Minimum-Variance property of Least-Squares Estimators 2. Consistency of Least-Squares Estimators 1. The Probability Distribution of Disturbances 2. The Normality Assumption For Disturbances: why normality assumption? 3. Properties of OLS Estimators Under The Normality Assumption. 1. The Method of Maximum Likelihood (ML) 2. Maximum Likelihood Estimation of TwoVariable Regression Model 3. Numerical Example: maximum likelihood estimation of food expenditure in India. 1. Interval Estimation: Some Basic Ideas 2. Confidence Intervals For Regression Coefficients. 3. Confidence Interval for Sigma Square. 1. Hypothesis Testing: General Comments 2. Hypothesis Testing: The Confidence-Interval Approach 3. Two-Sided or Two-Tail Test 4. One-Sided or One-Tail Test 1. Hypothesis Testing: The Test-Of-Significance Approach: using t-test and Chi-square test. 2. Hypothesis Testing: Some practical Aspects Practical Demo and Training Session on AMOS software

Week#10

Week#11

Week#12

Classical Normal Linear Regression Model (CNLRM) Two-Variable Regression: Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing Two-Variable Regression: Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing Two-Variable Regression: Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing

Week#13

Week#14

Week#15

Week#16

Note:

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Course contents will be covered subject to availability of time. Therefore decision regarding addition or deletion of some topics is expected to be made during semester.