Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Crutzen et al. 84 (Paul J. Crutzen, Ian E. Galbally and Christoph Brühl, Climatic Change, Volume 6, Number 4
http://www.springerlink.com/content/h8jq3735g0587602/)
During a large nuclear war, the atmosphere would be loaded with huge quantities of pollutants, which
are produced by fires in urban and industrial centers, cultivated lands, forests and grasslands. Especially
detrimental are the effects of light absorbing airborne particles. An analysis of the amounts of the various
types of fuels which could burn in a nuclear war indicates that more than 1014 g of black smoke could be
produced by fires started by the nuclear explosions. Due to this, the penetration of sunlight to the
earth's surface would be reduced greatly over extended areas of the northern hemisphere, maybe even
globally. This could temporarily cause extreme darkness in large areas in midlatitudes and reduce crop
growth and biospheric productivity. This situation would last for several weeks and cause very
anomalous meteorological conditions. Much solar radiation would be absorbed in the atmosphere instead of
at the earth's surface. The land areas and lower atmosphere would, therefore, cool and the overlying
atmosphere warm, creating strong vertical thermal stability in a highly polluted atmosphere. For
extended periods and in large parts of the world, weather conditions would be abnormal. The resulting
cold, probably freezing, temperatures at the ground would interfere severely with crop production
during the growing season and cause extreme conditions for large sections of the biosphere. The
combination of lack of sunlight, frost and other adverse meteorological conditions would add enormously to
the already huge problems of the survivors.
***Desertification***
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 5
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Jiao 8 [Wu, China Daily, “Arable land reserves continue to decline,” April 17,
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-04/17/content_6624879.htm]
The country's arable land bank fell by 40,700 hectares last year, to 121.73 million hectares, still above
the government's 120 million "critical" mark, the Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR) said yesterday.
The figures were published in the 2007 National Land and Resources Communiqu. The total arable land
area at the end of 2006 was 122 million hectares, the MLR report said.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 6
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Desertification could affect one third of all land and one billion people.
Munir 4 [Shafqat, September 1, “Desertification, Drought hit sustainable development, food security”
http://www.jdhr.org/publications/papers/Desertification%20Article%20for%20PE.pdf
Desertification has long been recognized as a major economic, social, and environmental problem of
concern to many countries in all regions of the world. Desertification is the degradation of land in arid, semi-
arid, and dry sub-humid areas. Primarily human activities and climatic variations cause desertification. It
does not refer to the expansion of existing deserts. It occurs because dry-land ecosystems, which cover
over one third of the world's land area, are extremely vulnerable to over-exploitation and
inappropriate land-use. Poverty, political instability, deforestation, overgrazing, and bad irrigation practices
could all undermine the land's productivity. Over 250 million people are directly affected by
desertification in the world. In addition, some one billion people in over 100 countries are at risk.
These people include many of the world's poorest, most marginalized, and politically weak citizens.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 7
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Desertification results in food insecurity, droughts, and wars – hundreds of thousands die.
Koohafkan 96 [A.P., Senior Officer, Environment and Sustainable Development, “Desertification, drought and
their consequences,” http://www.fao.org/sd/epdirect/epan0005.htm]
By impoverishing the natural potential of the ecosystems, desertification also reduces agricultural yields,
making them more unpredictable. It therefore affects the food security of the people living in the
affected areas. The people develop a survival strategy in order to attend to their most urgent
requirements, and this in turn helps to aggravate desertification and hold up development. The most
immediate and frequent consequence of these survival attitudes is the increased over-exploitation of
accessible natural resources. This strategy is often accompanied by a breakdown in solidarity within the
community and within households, and encourages individualism and exclusion. It leads to conflict
between different ethnic groups, families and individuals. Lastly, desertification considerably heightens
the effects of climatic crises (droughts) and political crises (wars), generally leading to migration,
causing suffering and even death to hundreds of thousands of people worldwide.
These consequences, in turn, weaken the economies of the developing countries affected by
desertification, particularly when they have no other resources than their agriculture. This is
particularly true in the African countries in the dry zones: their economy is unable to offset the increasingly
serious effects of desertification, and they have to deal with emergency situations created by drought and
desertification despite the increasing debt burden that is reducing their possibility of making productive
investment in order to break the spiral of underdevelopment.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 8
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Koohafkan 96 [A.P., Senior Officer, Environment and Sustainable Development, “Desertification, drought and
their consequences,” http://www.fao.org/sd/epdirect/epan0005.htm]
Another consequence of desertification at the local and global level is the reduction in biodiversity, since
it contributes to the destruction of the habitats of animal and vegetable species and micro-organisms.
It encourages the genetic erosion of local livestock and plant varieties and species living in fragile
ecosystems. It is extremely difficult to put a figure on this loss because of our inadequate familiarity with the
features, the siting and the economic importance of the biodiversity of the dry zones. A substantial part of it is
still fairly unknown to scientists, even though the local people are very familiar with it. Reducing the
biodiversity directly affects the food and health of the local people who rely on a large number of
different animal and vegetable species. But it is also a loss to the whole of mankind. Many genetic
strains of cultivated plants which form the basis of the food and health of the world's population
originate from the dry zones: their disappearance can affect the possibility of producing plant-based
medicines to combat specific diseases or epidemics.
Safriel 97 [Uriel N., Professor, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, “Relations Between Biodiversity,
Desertification, and Climate Change,” Israel Environment Bulletin, Vol. 20, No. 1, http://www.israel-
mfa.gov.il/MFA/Archive/Communiques/1997/RELATIONS%20BETWEEN%20BIODIVERSITY-
%20DESERTIFICATION%20AN]
When the transformation of rangeland to irrigated cropland results in desertification, the effect on
biodiversity is in the loss of natural ecosystems. When the overexploitation of rangeland results in
desertification, the effects on biodiversity are first expressed in the direct loss of plant species and the
animals associated with them, and later in the loss of topsoil and the potential for rehabilitating
biodiversity. These biodiversity losses, both in goods and services, further exacerbate desertification in
the affected areas. They also affect adjacent and other areas, that used to enjoy some of the services,
such as aquifer recharge for example.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 9
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Koohafkan 96 [A.P., Senior Officer, Environment and Sustainable Development, “Desertification, drought and
their consequences,” http://www.fao.org/sd/epdirect/epan0005.htm]
Droughts occur frequently in the areas affected by desertification, and are generally a feature of their
natural climate. The relations between desertification and drought on the one hand, and human influence on
the other, are complex. Occasional droughts (due to seasonal or inter-year variations in rainfall) and
long-term droughts covering wide areas are both caused or aggravated by the influence of man on the
environment (the reduction in vegetation cover, the change in the Albedo effect, changes in the local
climate, the greenhouse effect, etc.). Human influence can also hasten desertification and aggravate the
negative consequences on man. But the degradation of land due to desertification has a serious
compounding effect on drought, and thereby reduces the chances of the local people to cope with
difficult periods.
Koohafkan 96 [A.P., Senior Officer, Environment and Sustainable Development, “Desertification, drought and
their consequences,” http://www.fao.org/sd/epdirect/epan0005.htm]
Lastly, desertification directly reduces the world's fresh water reserves. It has a direct impact on river
flow rates and the level of groundwater tables. The reduction of river flow rates and the lowering of
groundwater levels leads to the silting up of estuaries, the encroachment of salt water into water tables, the
pollution of water by suspended particles and salination, which in turn reduces the biodiversity of
fresh and brackish water and fishing catches, interfering with the operation of reservoirs and irrigation
channels, increasing coastal erosion and adversely affecting human and animal health. Lastly,
desertification leads to an accelerated and often unbridled exploitation of underground fossil water
reserves, and their gradual depletion.
UNCCD 8 [“Human Health Severely Affected by Desertification and Drought, says the World Health
Organization,” January 17, http://www.unccd.int/publicinfo/pressrel/showpressrel.php?pr=press10_12_00]
Furthermore, drought increases the susceptibility of some forests and rangelands to fire, often resulting
in severe episodes of air pollution, which may also affect neighbouring countries. This biomass burning
can cause acute respiratory disease and exacerbate chronic respiratory disease in children and adults.
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Desertification risks displacing 50 million by 2017 – it’s the biggest threat to stability.
Reilly 7 [William M., UPI U.N. Correspondent, “The Challenge Of Desertification,” June 28,
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_Challenge_Of_Desertification_999.html]
But, it's mass migration that raises the greatest fear of international instability.
One-third of all people -- about 2 billion -- are potential victims of desertification's creeping effect, UNU
said.
Left unchecked, the number of people at risk of displacement due to severe desertification is an
estimated 50 million over the next 10 years -- migrants worldwide equal in number to the entire population
of South Africa or South Korea.
Scholz 7 [Dr Imme, Head of Department, Environmental Policy and Management of Natural Resources, German
Development Institute, “The Role of Governance in Combating Desertification,” Febraury,
http://www2.gtz.de/dokumente/bib/07-0302.pdf
Desertification can also be a dangerous mechanism for the transmission of conflict. Environmental
migration means hardship not only for the people who have to leave their homes to seek a new living,
but also for those already living in the regions into which they move.
Already adept at competing for fertile land, water, food and other resources in their homelands, the
migrants are a significant threat for the residents in destination areas. Add in ethnic tensions or border
conflicts, for example, and you set the scene for confrontation. Look no further than Rwanda and the
Democratic Republic of Congo, the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia and neighbouring countries, and especially
Sudan, where you find all the ingredients for polarisation and violence: severe soil degradation, lack of
water, and animosity between settled and nomadic population, between Africans and Arabs.
Mouat1 8 [David, Desert Research Institute, “Desertification and Societal Uncertainties,” June, Air Lands
Newsletter, No. 60, http://ag.arizona.edu/OALS/ALN/aln60/mouat.pdf]
Environmental refugees are typically poor and need shelter, food and medical care. Additionally, they
may bring different customs, religions, agricultural practices and diseases with them, and many
governments, at national or local scale, simply do not have the resources to deal with this situation
(Tickell 2003). An influx of refugees into an area already experiencing environmental stress (such as
desertification) and depletion of resources is, according to Liotta (2003), likely to result in ethnic clashes
and infrastructure collapse. Adaptation is an infinitely preferable option, but may not be viable if decisions
are put off until it is too late.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 13
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UNCCD 8 [“Human Health Severely Affected by Desertification and Drought, says the World Health
Organization,” January 17, http://www.unccd.int/publicinfo/pressrel/showpressrel.php?pr=press10_12_00]
Furthermore, drought increases the susceptibility of some forests and rangelands to fire, often resulting
in severe episodes of air pollution, which may also affect neighbouring countries. This biomass burning
can cause acute respiratory disease and exacerbate chronic respiratory disease in children and adults.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 14
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Desertification and global warming contribute to each other – solving either problem will
solve the other.
Safriel 97 [Uriel N., Professor, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, “Relations Between Biodiversity,
Desertification, and Climate Change,” Israel Environment Bulletin, Vol. 20, No. 1, http://www.israel-
mfa.gov.il/MFA/Archive/Communiques/1997/RELATIONS%20BETWEEN%20BIODIVERSITY-
%20DESERTIFICATION%20AN]
Climate change, mainly global warming, results from non-sustainable development: emission of greenhouses
gases coupled with destruction of their natural sinks vegetation. Reduction of soil plant cover in drylands
due to the desertification process causes further reduction of sinks, i.e., global warming, which in turn
exacerbates desertification. Warming increases evapotranspiration hence aridity, thus bringing more
drylands under the risk of desertification. Loss of surface moisture due to desertification releases solar
energy, otherwise expended on evaporation, to warming of the lower atmosphere. This increases
warming and reduces rainfall. Thus, desertification and climate change are interlinked by positive
feedback relations. Desertification and climate change are therefore a manifestation of non-sustainable
development. Desertification can result from non- sustainable water resource development and use, and
climate change may further reduce water supplies.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 15
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Mwanundu and Lubbock 6 [Sheila, senior technical adviser for environment and natural resource
management, Annina, senior technical adviser for gender and poverty targeting, IFAD “Gender and Desertification:
Expanding Roles for Women to Restore Drylands,” May, http://www.ifad.org/pub/gender/desert/gender_desert.pdf]
Lack of access to water is also a serious constraint that has grown dramatically in recent years due to the privatization of water services,
poor service delivery and increasing population. It is dependent on land rights, control over resources, capacity, and social networks, all
of which are more severely restricted among women than among men. Land allocation policy is thus crucial to understanding water
rights and allocations. Local norms can curtail women’s ownership and rights of access to water resources (Gender and Water Alliance,
2003). Experience has shown that water rights are generally appropriated by the more powerful, and this does not lead to a proper
distribution and use of water resources. There is often fierce competition for irrigated land, and, because they have less social or political
power, women tend to be disadvantaged. The commonly held view that women cannot contribute fully to irrigation system maintenance
excludes them. However, in some countries, women are as active as men in digging irrigation canals and maintaining them (IFAD,
2001a). In areas of water scarcity, women lose out unless gender-sensitive policies have been adopted (Venkataswaran, 1995). In
addition, desertification forces poor women and children (most often girls) to travel ever greater distances
from home to fetch water for domestic use and livestock (as well as for fuelwood), sometimes exposing
them to violence and forcing girls to drop out of school to assist in these tasks. The alternative that
many overburdened women are forced to accept is a severe shortage of water for consumption, which
threatens the health of their families.
Increased responsibilities from desertification have not empowered women – all benefits
are illusory and confined to household decisions.
Mwanundu and Lubbock 6 [Sheila, senior technical adviser for environment and natural resource
management, Annina, senior technical adviser for gender and poverty targeting, IFAD “Gender and Desertification:
Expanding Roles for Women to Restore Drylands,” May, http://www.ifad.org/pub/gender/desert/gender_desert.pdf]
Women are significantly affected when erosion and diminished soil fertility result in decreased crop and livestock productivity, thereby
reducing the sources of income derived from these products. Beyond the deterioration in the physical environment, women claim
that desertification has changed the entire context of their lives (Leisinger and Schmitt, 1995).
Besides the resulting increase in workloads, women are particularly affected by the migration of growing numbers of men. As
environmental conditions worsen, more men migrate for longer periods, sometimes even permanently. Meanwhile, household and farm
chores are becoming not only more difficult but also more crucial to survival. The migrating men are contributing less and less to family
incomes. Women are therefore trying to expand their productive role to earn incomes and ensure living standards above mere survival
for their households.
As women increase their contributions of farmlabour and household maintenance, they are also becoming
responsible for more decision-making if long-term migration means that major decisions, such as the
purchase or sale of livestock or changes in cropping patterns, cannot wait for the men’s return. Women
are becoming de facto heads of households, and this is increasing the vulnerability of families to extreme
poverty as women assume traditionally male responsibilities without the same levels of access to financial,
technological and social resources. Women’s workloads and responsibilities have become greater, but
women have not enjoyed a corresponding rise in influence and opportunities.
Mwanundu and Lubbock 6 [Sheila, senior technical adviser for environment and natural resource
management, Annina, senior technical adviser for gender and poverty targeting, IFAD “Gender and Desertification:
Expanding Roles for Women to Restore Drylands,” May, http://www.ifad.org/pub/gender/desert/gender_desert.pdf]
Despite their multiple, major roles in agricultural, water and forestry management, women are not able to
access the full range of extension and advisory services, inputs and knowledge of new technologies that
are provided to men in the same communities. This is due to many factors, including: • high rates of
illiteracy • lack of land ownership • cultural restrictions on women’s mobility and participation in
public events • an extreme shortage of free time to attend training sessions and meetings • women’s own
lack of confidence • commonly held gender biases in institutions related to these sectors that view only
the men as the farmers and thus limit their outreach activities to men, wrongly assuming that somehow
knowledge will be conveyed to women.
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***AT Desertification***
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 17
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Phair 8 [John Today’s Farmer, “Earth has enough resources for both food and fuel, U.S.-based researcher says,”
April 26, http://cgi.bowesonline.com/pedro.php?id=98&x=story&xid=396234]
Nelson says there is enough arable land available to grow all the food and fuel the world needs, as well
as providing manufacturers with a source of affordable feedstocks and raw materials. “I want to make it
very clear that we can get all the material we need for all the products we need from the crops we grow.”
Nelson was a keynote speaker at the Growing the Margins conference in London. He said the it’s an amazing
time for farmers, but warned no one should underestimate the amount of transition and change that
agriculture must undergo in the near future. “There is a major re-alignment of agri-business, chemical,
bio-tech and petroleum companies already in progress and that will change the entire face of
agriculture. I can’t stress that too much.”
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 18
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Koohafkan 96 [A.P., Senior Officer, Environment and Sustainable Development, “Desertification, drought and
their consequences,” http://www.fao.org/sd/epdirect/epan0005.htm]
While the survival attitudes caused by desertification have often led to a decline in agricultural know-how,
they have conversely encouraged the development of technical know-how, particularly relating to the
environment and conservation. The micro-undertakings that have been implemented in many places over
the past fifteen years have made it possible to build up a store of know-how to be able to implement new
approaches. In many regions, the perception by the rural people of the importance of their environment
and the priority given to a better relationship with the environment, have also changed. More
increasingly, rural people are realising that:
-a fragile environment on which they depend for their survival is being neglected or over-exploited,
and it is now necessary to rehabilitate it and manage it sustainably;
-the environment belongs primarily to them, and that they must take the responsibility for the land
and set up organisations (groups, cooperatives, village development associations and other local
associations). Greater awareness at the highest level of government has also made it possible to draft and
adopt the International Convention on Desertification, and the undertaking by the Heads of State of most of
the world's countries to enter a partnership contract to effectively combat desertification by taking a
participatory approach.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 19
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Koohafkan 96 [A.P., Senior Officer, Environment and Sustainable Development, “Desertification, drought and
their consequences,” http://www.fao.org/sd/epdirect/epan0005.htm]
But desertification also leads to a positive change in certain behaviour patterns. These include, in
particular, the attitude of the women who have to cope with the problems caused by the absence of the
men, who have to leave to seek work elsewhere. The extra burden of work and the responsibilities
which the women have to undertake are having two consequences:
-women are now demanding greater ease of access to the land, particularly the land they manage
themselves. Women are gradually acquiring the permission of their communities, and are causing land
title rules to develop. Combating desertification cannot ignore or under-estimate the new power
relationship that is thus being created;
-women are becoming increasingly aware of the need to space births. In many places in the world, however,
they frequently come up against cultural and religious taboos, the disapproval of the men, and reluctance of
their government to support them.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 20
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AT Desertification: Reversible
IFOAM 6 [International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movement, “Organic Agriculture’s Role in Combating
Desertification,” http://www.ifoam.org/organic_facts/benefits/pdfs/IFOAM_Role_of_OA_in_
combating_desertification.pdf]
Desertification refers to land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various
factors, including climatic variations and human activities like conventional agriculture. Desertification is
caused mainly by overcultivation, overgrazing, deforestation and poor irrigation practices, which
result in organic matter loss, soil contamination, erosion, soil compaction and sealing, salinization and
long-term loss of natural vegetation.
Koohafkan 96 [A.P., Senior Officer, Environment and Sustainable Development, “Desertification, drought and
their consequences,” http://www.fao.org/sd/epdirect/epan0005.htm]
Even though the cycles of drought years and climatic changes can contribute to the advance of
desertification, it is mainly caused by changes in the ways man uses the natural resources, mainly by
over-grazing, land clearance, over-cropping cultivated land and wood formations and more generally
using land in a way that is inappropriate for the local conditions. Human activities connected with
agriculture, livestock and forestry production vary widely from one country and from one type of society to
another, as do the strategies for land-use and the technologies employed.
UNCCD 8 [United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, “World Day to Combat Desertification 17 June
2008,” June 17, http://www.unccd.int/publicinfo/june17/2008/menu.php?newch=l3]
Unsustainable agriculture has direct and strong impact on the soil to the point that it cannot regenerate
naturally. Soil nutrients and organic matter begin to diminish as intensive agriculture removes
quantities of nutrients greater than the soil’s natural regeneration capacities. As a consequence, the soil
is unable to recover, as it does during fallow periods, resulting an ever-increasing spiral of land
degradation and desertification.
The principal causes exacerbating land degradation derives from the farmers’ determination to maximize soil
productivity, which include: crops cultivated in areas at high risk from drought; shortening of crop
cycles and the reduction of fallow periods; insufficient use of fertilizer after harvesting; inadequate crop
rotation or worse, monoculture; intensive labour; intense breeding and overgrazing with pressure on
vegetation and soil trampling by livestock; separation of cattle rearing and agriculture, eliminating a
source of natural fertilizer or organic matter used to regenerate the soil; deforestation; bush and forest
fires; in mountainous regions, crops are cultivated along the downward sloping face rather than following the
natural contour lines of the mountain; deterioration of terraces and other soil and water conservation
techniques.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 22
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High population and government policy are amongst the causes of desertification.
Mwanundu and Lubbock 6 [Sheila, senior technical adviser for environment and natural resource
management, Annina, senior technical adviser for gender and poverty targeting, IFAD “Gender and Desertification:
Expanding Roles for Women to Restore Drylands,” May, http://www.ifad.org/pub/gender/desert/gender_desert.pdf]
Desertification refers to the process of land degradation that results from various factors in arid, semi-arid
and dry sub-humid areas. It is a process by which drylands lose their productive capacity, leading to food
insecurity and poverty, in a cause-effect relationship. Characterized by climate variability, these lands sustain
pastoralists and small-scale farmers, but are susceptible to desertification as a result of increasing human
population, inappropriate government land-use policies, settlement, climate change, deforestation,
expropriation of rangelands, land clearance, overgrazing, inappropriate irrigation practices, political
instability and poverty. The livelihoods of over 1.2 billion people inhabiting dryland areas in 110 countries
are currently threatened by drought and desertification.
Nasr 99 [Mamdouh, Center for Development Research, Bonn, “Assessing Desertification and Water Harvesting in
the Middle East and North Africa: Policy Implications,” Discussion Papers on Development Policy, No. 10,
http://www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/zef_dp/zef_dp10-99.pdf]
Salinization is the main desertification problem in irrigated agriculture. Salinization involves a number
of interrelated processes occuring in the soil, for example waterlogging, increasing salt content, and
alkalinization, in which some nutrients can no longer be absorbed due to the increasing pH-value of
the soil. This problem is caused by the overuse of water through unsuitable irrigation techniques,
accompanied by inefficient drainage systems. This type of desertification is to be seen in some of the
irrigated agriculture in Iraq and Egypt.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 23
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AT Desertification: GM Solves
The UNCCD has a framework set up that uses a diverse set of techniques to bring organic
agriculture anywhere.
UNCCD 8 [United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, “World Day to Combat Desertification 17 June
2008,” June 17, http://www.unccd.int/publicinfo/june17/2008/menu.php?newch=l3]
The UNCCD is providing a universal legal policy and advocacy framework for its 193 Parties to
combat desertification and land degradation. In implementing the Convention, the great leverage has been
made through the unique participatory process of local stakeholders, including farmers and rural
populations that offer a number of possibilities to illustrate. In addition, capacity building, sharing of best
practices and case studies, partnership development and awareness raising are some of the areas to be
refocused under the newly adopted Ten-year strategic plan and framework to enhance the
implementation of the Convention (2008-2018). The UNCCD supports member Parties to combat land
degradation for sustainable agriculture as the way for future.
The UNCCD has a program to preserve valuable traditional knowledge that promotes
sustainable agriculture.
UNCCD 8 [United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, “World Day to Combat Desertification 17 June
2008,” June 17, http://www.unccd.int/publicinfo/june17/2008/menu.php?newch=l3]
There are many local initiatives and traditional knowledge that comes from indigenous people and small
communities that can play an important role in promoting sustainable agriculture and protect soils and
water resources. Traditional knowledge and technology can actually be a key tool for the generation of
better livelihoods, incomes and sustainable land management trough sustainable agricultural activities.
The three Rio conventions (United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, UNCCD and United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change) are promoting initiatives to rescue and compile knowledge
produced by local and indigenous populations as well as to assess possibilities of adapting them to
modern production conditions. One example is the case of the “bio-mass increase” technology, known
in Honduras by the indigenous people as “Quezungual.” The technology involves the development of
agricultural activities and the protection of existing vegetation and biodiversity. The effectiveness of
Quezungal has been recognized by the World Bank and can be verified through the weaker damages
caused by the Mitch hurricane in regions where this technology was used relative to other regions.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 25
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IFOAM 6 [International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movement, EU, “Organic Agriculture’s Role in
Combating Desertification,” http://www.ifoam.org/organic_facts/benefits/pdfs/IFOAM_Role_of_OA_in_
combating_desertification.pdf]
Organic Agriculture increases the resilience of soils to both water stress and nutrient loss. It
contributes to combating desertification by preventing soil erosion and land degradation as well as by
helping rehabilitate degraded land.
Organic Agriculture helps: Improve soil fertility by maintaining and building a fertile living soil
through frequent organic matter inputs, sustained soil cover, crop rotations and intercropping. Organic
Agriculture farming systems integrate crops and animals and can therefore reduce overgrazing and
facilitate nutrient recycling on the farm. Prevent wind and water erosion of the soils through a better,
more stable soil structure and texture and through persistent and diversified soil cover and agro-
forestry. Improve water infiltration and retention capacity through high levels of organic matter and
permanent soil cover, such as cover crops or mulch, which substantially reduce the amount of water
needed for irrigation. Reduce surface and ground water consumption and subsequent soil salinization
through increased water retention capacity, reduction of water evaporation, and the creation of suitable
micro-climates in dry areas through diversified organic agro-forestry systems that can attract and
retain atmospheric humidity. Reduce ground and surface water contamination by refraining from the
use of synthetic pesticides and fertilizers, thereby protecting the little water available in dry areas from
pesticide contamination and nitrate and phosphate leaching.
IFOAM 8 [International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movement, EU, “How Organic Agriculture
contributes to combat Desertification,” June 16, http://www.freshplaza.com/news_detail.asp?id=23735]
Combating desertification requires an integrated approach. Organic Agriculture [1], including
techniques such as windbreaks, shelterbelts and reforestation, should be promoted and strengthened with
socio-economic measures that address insecure land tenure systems and promote sustainable human
settlements.
Organic Agriculture helps to improve soil fertility, prevent wind and water erosion, improve water
infiltration and retention capacity and reduce surface and ground water consumption and
contamination – all measures contributing to bringing land back to life.
Gerald A. Hermann, IFOAM’s President, emphasizes that “Farm practices that do not take care of the soil
and its organic and living content undermine the very resource agriculture depends on – the land.”
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 26
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Davies 5+ [Jonathan, World Initiative for Sustainable Pastoralism, “Global Changes in Pastoral Policy,” most
recent reference, http://www.inweh.unu.edu/inweh/drylands/IYDD_Conference_2006-Abstracts.pdf]
The future of the drylands lies in the hands of mobile pastoralists. In direct contrast to popular opinion,
pastoralism is essential to dryland ecosystem health and it is one of the few production systems that are
genuinely environmentally friendly to the drylands. Furthermore, and also in contrast to popular opinion,
pastoralism is the most economically viable means of managing the drylands. Nevertheless, many
governments, particularly in the developing world, still consider pastoralism to be the scourge of both
development and the environment and they create policies that deliberately undermine it. Yet some
governments around the world are slowly recognising the value of pastoralism and are beginning to
accommodate mobility within policy.
The World Initiative for Sustainable Pastoralism (WISP) is a global network for knowledge
management on pastoralism and sustainable land management. This paper from WISP will present
findings of a global review on the economics of pastoralism that illustrate the importance of pastoralism to
developing country economies, the policy failures that undermine pastoralism, and policy trends from around
the world. The paper will stress the importance of pastoralism in protecting drylands ecosystems and
will illustrate how this attribute is consistently under-valued, and thus is being lost.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 27
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IFAD 7 [August 20, “Opuntia spp: an efficient tool to combat desertification,” http://www.ifad.org/lrkm/tans/7.htm]
Marginal lands are fragile ecosystems, and when subjected to ploughing and indiscriminate vegetation
removal the result has been large-scale degradation and destruction of vegetative cover. The increasing
scarcity, if not disappearance, of several plant species indicates the magnitude of genetic and edaphic losses.
Significant achievements in desertification control using cactus to reverse the desertification trend and
restore the vegetative cover in marginal arid and semi-arid areas, appropriate integrated packages can
be applied for rangeland monitoring, livestock husbandry, and natural resources conservation.
Spineless cactus (Opuntia ficus-indica), a drought- and erosion-tolerant plant, is being used advantageously
in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco to slow and direct sand movement, enhance the restoration of
vegetative cover, and avoid the destruction by water of the land terraces built to reduce runoff.
IFAD 7 [August 20, “Opuntia spp: an efficient tool to combat desertification,” http://www.ifad.org/lrkm/tans/7.htm]
The increased importance of cacti, such as Opuntia species, in arid zones is because of their ability to (i)
grow in “deserts” and their drought tolerance; (ii) produce forage, fruit, and other useful products;
and (iii) mitigate long-term degradation of ecologically fragile environments.The various Opuntia
species have developed phenological, physiological and structural adaptations favouring survival in arid
environments, in which water is the main factor limiting the development of most plant species. Pre-eminent
among these adaptations are asynchronous reproduction and its crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM),
which combine with structural adaptations, such as succulence, to allow this plant to continue the
assimilation of carbon dioxide during long periods of drought. In this way, acceptable productivity levels
are attained even in years of severe drought.
They can develop in severely degraded soils, which are inadequate for other crops. Opuntia spp. have a great
capacity for adaptation and are ideal for responding to global environmental changes. Their root
characteristics avoid wind and rain erosion, encouraging their growth in degraded areas.
IFAD 7 [August 20, “Opuntia spp: an efficient tool to combat desertification,” http://www.ifad.org/lrkm/tans/7.htm]
In central and south Tunisia, cactus plantations provide a large amount of fodder for livestock and play a
key role in natural resources conservation. Land terraces are easily damaged by water runoff, but use
of cactus helps to stabilize them, with its deep and strong rooting system. Two rows of cactus pads are
planted on the inner side of the terraces (Figure 1). The rooting system is enhanced by the availability of the
water collected at the base of the terrace. Roots are widely spread on the elevated land part and penetrate
deeply in the soil to ensure stability of the terraces. In addition, cut-and-carried pads provide feed
resources during drought spells.
Cactus can be used in combination with cement barriers or cut palm leaves to stop wind erosion and sand
movement. It will fix the soil and enhance the restoration of the vegetative plant cover (Figure 2).
CommonAl planting techniquesSpineless cactus has been used for several years on a very large scale in arid
and semi-arid areas of North Africa. About 500000 ha have been planted in Tunisia for rangeland
improvement and erosion control in areas where rainfall ranges from 150 to 400 mm/year.
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More ev…
The most common pattern of macroevolutionary trends is extinction. In short “when a species is no
longer adapted to a changed environment, it may die. Extinction seems, in fact, to be the ultimate fate of
all species” (Relethford, 2005). One has to wonder the fate of the human race as the world becomes
more and more toxic and people become more ill. Are 60% (Ray & Oakley, 2003) of Americans taking
psychiatric medications because they are really mentally ill or is it our society that is sick and we the victims
of trying to adapt to a bad environment? How can we justify that 60% is a MAJORITY of the population that
is labeled as mentally ill? How long can we deny the damage of modern pollution to the human body
before we take action? How long can we sustain reproductive damage before we can no longer
reproduce and have children to share our tales of an earlier generation with? Occasionally I have heard
statements such as “we will evolve to tolerate air pollution.” Such statements are absurdities. Natural
selection only operates on variations that are present. If no genetic variation occurs to aid in breathing
polluted air, natural selection will not help us. Even in cases where genetic variation is present, the
environment may change too quickly for us to respond to natural selection. All we have to do is examine
the fossil record to see how inaccurate this misconception is—that 99% of all past species are extinct
shows us that natural selection obviously doesn't always work” (Relethford, 2005). If natural selection
does not work and we will not evolve to handle the ever increasing toxic burden then what hope is there for
us as the world becomes more and more toxic? How can we ensure our future survival as our bodies
become laden with mercury, lead, fire retardants, PCB’s, PBDE’s, Pesticides, Dioxins, pFA’s Phthalates,
Bisphenols, and other chemicals of modern day living while the powers that be deny any connection in the
name of profits?
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Air pollution is a serious threat to the diversity of life. This factsheet deals primarily with the effects of
acidification, nitrogen fallout, and ground-level ozone – where the specific pollutants are sulphur dioxide,
compounds of nitrogen and volatile organic substances. Another potentially serious threat is climate change,
only touched upon here, resulting from anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere of greenhouse gases. In
general it can be said of the effects of air pollutants on biological diversity that: Lower life forms are
usually more affected than higher forms Whereas the effects on larger organisms may be more noticeable,
those that can be seen on lower forms of life are far more extensive, as regards both the number of
species that are affected and sensitivity of individual species. Especially hard hit are lichens, bryophytes,
fungi, and soft bodied aquatic invertebrates. On land, plants are more affected than animals, but not in
freshwater By nature plants are less able to adapt to sudden changes in pollution levels and climate than
animals, which can often migrate or change their source of food. A wide survey of the literature (Tickle et al.
1995) gave evidence of more than three times as many terrestrial plants being affected by pollution as
animals. In freshwater ecosystems on the other hand the decline is greater among animal species than among
plants. It has been found in studies of benthic fauna in Sweden that the diversity of animal species declined
by 40 per cent with a reduction of the water's pH value by one unit, as against a decline of only 25 per cent
for plant species.
Air pollution is a significant contributory factor to the global decline in biodiversity To date, research
suggests that air pollution has been involved in the decline and attenuation of species, rather than their
extinction. It is likely, however, that if the trend continues, particularly sensitive groups in temperate
regions will continue to decline until they have become extinct. This is, for example, a real possibility for
some lichens. Pollution effects in some areas of the tropics, which are now becoming ever more
widespread, can also lead to extinction of species, since both biodiversity and ecosystems are more
fragile there than in temperate regions.
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More ev…
Even a limited nuclear war would release massive amounts of soot in the air
***Dioxin***
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Campell 8(Jonathan, Health consultant, Natural Therapies for Chronic Illness & Health Maintenance, July 1,
http://www.cqs.com/edioxin.htm)
We now know that dioxin exhibits serious health effects when it reaches as little as a few parts per
trillion in your body fat. Dioxin is a powerful hormone disrupting chemical. By binding to a cell's
hormone receptor, it literally modifies the functioning and genetic mechanism of the cell, causing a wide
range of effects, from cancer to reduced immunity to nervous system disorders to miscarriages and
birth deformity. Because it literally changes the functioning of your cells, the effects can be very obvious
or very subtle. Because it changes gene functions, it can cause so-called genetic diseases to appear, and
can interfere with child development. There is no "threshold" dose - the tiniest amount can cause damage,
and our bodies have no defense against it.
Unfortunately, according to the EPA, much of the population of the U.S. is at the dose at which there can
be serious health effects. How did this happen? For about 40 years we have seen a dramatic increase in the
manufacture and use of chlorinated organic chemicals and plastics. For chemicals, it was insecticides and
herbicides (weed killers). For plastics, it was primarily polyvinyl chloride (PVC). From phonograph records
to automobile seat covers to wire insulation to shampoo bottles to handbags to house siding to plumbing
pipes to wallpaper, we are literally surrounded by PVC. When these chemicals and plastics are manufactured
or burned, dioxin is produced as an unwanted (but inevitable) by-product. Dioxin is also formed in paper
bleaching, so that most paper products are contaminated. This exposes people who use chlorine-bleached
coffee filters (most of the products available), as well as compounding the risks of cancer of those who
smoke cigarettes.
Dioxin had been a little-known threat for many years near factories that produce PVC plastic or chlorinated
pesticides and herbicides, and where those pesticides and herbicides have been heavily used, such as on
farms, near electric and railway lines, apple orchards, paper company forests. It became better known when
Vietnam War veterans and Vietnamese civilians, exposed to dioxin-contaminated Agent Orange,
became ill. It has been a hazard downstream of paper mills (where chlorine bleach combines with natural
organics in wood pulp and produces dioxin).
Several towns and cities have become contaminated as a result of chemical spills or manufacturing
emissions, some that needed to be evacuated. Love Canal (Niagara Falls, N.Y), Seveso (Italy), Times
Beach (Missouri), Pensacola (Florida), and the entire city of Midland, Michigan have high concentrations of
dioxin.Bizarre health effects, such as cancer, spina bifida (split spine) and other birth defects, autism,
liver disease, endometriosis, reduced immunity, chronic fatigue syndrome, psychological disorders, and
other nerve and blood disorders have been reported.
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***Dioxin Answers***
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Fleming 94 (Bruce, Feb. 1994, Pulp and Paper, English Professor at the U.S. Naval Academy,
Annapolishttp://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3636/is_199402/ai_n8732335/pg_1?tag=artBody;col1)
According to EPA, bleach plant changes will prevent between 2 and 30 cancer cases/year by eliminating
dioxins and furans that accumulate in fish. The changes would also permit lifting 20 to 28 dioxin-related
fishing advisories.
The benefit of reduced cancer cases may not exist. The predicted 2 to 30 cancer cases results from
lengthy extrapolation and is a theoretical calculation based on unverified assumptions. It is
controversial whether any cancer can result from low-level dioxin exposures. (1) (2) Even at extremely
high doses (as in Seveso, Italy) evidence indicates dioxin is, at worst, a weak carcinogen for humans. (3)
Dioxin elimination is being achieved without taking drastic measures that will force mill closures. According
to the Vancouver Sun, dioxin levels in aquatic animals have dropped so fast that officials are considering
lifting the fisheries bans imposed in British Columbia during 1988. (4) British Columbia mills were not
required to eliminate chlorine and install oxygen bleaching to eliminate dioxin. They achieved it primarily by
high CIO sub 2 substitution--exactly what has been done in the U.S.
An AFPA/NCASI report shows the U.S. pulp industry has eliminated 90% of dioxin discharges
compared with 1988. In 1992, the entire U.S. industry released only 4 oz--a minute amount headed for
zero as more mills reach "nondetectable" status.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 44
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There are no risks of cancer because of Dioxin, even with direct contact
Studies about Dioxin are flawed and there is no conclusion on its effects
***Endocrine Disruption***
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Stamati and Pitsos 1 (Nicolopoulou and M.A, Professors of Pathology At the University of Athens, Oxford
Journals, 2001, http://humupd.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/7/3/323)
Over the last decades, many tons of man-made chemicals have been produced and released into the
environment. Many of these chemical substances have the ability to modulate the action of hormones
and are called endocrine disrupters. Cell receptors that have been pure receptors for thousands of years
have (due to industrialization), become susceptible to the action of exogenous chemicals. The balance of the
endocrine system is very important in the human body especially in females because the menstrual
cycle and fertility are very sensitive to hormone imbalances. This review considers the mode of exposure
and action of endocrine disrupters and focuses on their impact on the female reproductive system,
including female hormone concentrations, menstrual cycle, fertility, spontaneous abortion and the
development of endometriosis. An attempt is made to elucidate the impact of endocrine disrupters on the
female reproductive system, while admitting that most scientific data come from experimental animals and
the conclusions cannot be applied to humans easily. The aim is to present available information, highlighting
the impact of endocrine disrupters on the female reproductive system, in order to stimulate re-evaluation in
identifying hormone disorders.
Skakkebaek 1 (Niels E., Professor of Growth and Reproduction at the University of Copenhagen,
September 3, 2001, http://content.karger.com/ProdukteDB/produkte.asp?Doi=58100)
Over the last couple of generations, we have been exposed to an increasing number of endocrine disrupters
in our environment, including dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), PCB, certain pesticides, the phthalate
DBP, synthetic steroids in meat and many other agents (table 1), which act as agonists or antagonists of sex
steroids. Although biologists working with wildlife have been concerned about the possible effects of these
chemical agents on animal reproduction, it appears that clinicians have been less concerned about possible
health effects in humans. However, the increasing incidence of hormone-dependent cancers, including
cancer of the breast, prostate and testis, and signs of an increasing incidence of male reproductive
health problems should alert us to the possible association between exposure to endocrine disrupters
and the current high frequency of reproductive problems. In Denmark, for example, 5% of all children
are now born after assisted reproduction (intracytoplasmic sperm injection, in vitro fertilization, donor
insemination and intrauterine insemination) and 1% of all (mostly young) men develop testicular cancer.
Evidence exists to support the concept that hypospadias, undescended testis, poor semen quality and
testicular cancer are symptoms of an underlying testicular dysgenesis syndrome, which may be becoming
increasingly common due to adverse environmental effects. Experimental and epidemiological evidence
suggests that testicular dysgenesis syndrome is a result of disruption of fetal programming and gonadal
development during fetal life.
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Roeleveld 8 (Dr. N., “Project: Effects of Environmental Disruptors on Male and Female Reproduction”,
Narcis Research, September 2008,
http://www.narcis.info/research/RecordID/OND1298981/Language/en/;jsessionid=14b3znbglr7gv)
Environmental endocrine disruptors, e.g. PCBs, dioxins, organic solvents and pesticides, are hypothesized to
cause male reproductive disorders, such as reduced sperm quality, testicular cancer, hypospadias, and
cryptorchidism (Testicular Dysgenesis Syndrome), and other congenital defects due to intra-uterine exposure.
Direct exposure at reproductive age may cause male and/or female infertility, prolonged time-to-pregnancy,
spontaneous abortion and premature birth. In a comprehensive approach, this entire range of effects is studied
in all relevant time-windows. The innovative Testicular Dysgenesis Syndrome hypothesis will be explored in
4 case-referent studies with similar design. For parents of boys with and without cryptorchidism or
hypospadias the exposure to environmental endocrine disruptors will be assessed by postal questionnaires, a
recently developed instrument for exposure assessment, and estrogen activity in blood. For mothers of
patients with reduced sperm quality or testicular cancer, exposure to environmental endocrine disruptors
during pregnancy will be estimated using modified questionnaires and exposure assessment models. Other
adverse reproductive effects are evaluated in several case-cohort studies attached to current studies on
organic solvents and pesticides. One study pertains to occupational exposure to organic solvents among
construction painters compared to carpenters. Postal questionnaires are followed up by detailed studies on
prolonged time-to-pregnancy, preterm birth, and congenital malformations. In the pesticides study, male and
female workers in flower greenhouses are compared to cleaners and retail workers, using reproductive
questionnaires, sperm quality parameters, ovarian function, and biological monitoring of pesticides. In
addition, 3-4 case-cohort studies on other reproductive outcomes will be performed, including detailed
exposure assessment. According to the same model, a study will be developed among female workers on
vineyards and apple farms in South Africa with high-level exposure to pesticides. The combined results of
these studies will elucidate the role of environmental endocrine disruptors in the etiology of male and female
reproductive disorders and will provide leads for prevention.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 54
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Scientific Studies On Endocrine Disruptors Are Mere Speculation- They Can’t Be Certain
About Effects On Humanity
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Online 7 (“Are Your Products Safe? You Can’t Tell”, JS
Online, November 24, 2007, http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=689731)
Because the effects of endocrine disruptors may take years to reveal themselves, it is almost impossible
to say that a particular chemical caused a certain disease. There also is a lot of uncertainty about how
these chemicals work inside your body. So, scientists extrapolate. They can't test their theories on
humans. Instead, they have to rely on animal studies and try to figure out the implications for people.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Online 7 (“Are Your Products Safe? You Can’t Tell”, JS
Online, November 24, 2007, http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=689731)
"Science supports our side," said Marty Durbin, federal affairs managing director for the American
chemistry Council, the trade group representing the plastics industry. They say there is no reason to fear the
toys, baby bottles and other products containing the chemicals because none of their studies has
proved that the chemicals cause harm to people. Chemists for the industry say you would have to
consume 1,300 pounds of canned and bottled foods each day to notice any effects from the chemicals
those products contain. "I'm very comfortable with my kids and grandkids using these products, and that's
really my bottom line," said James Lamb, an industry consultant and former EPA regulator. "And it is
because I believe the industry has done the studies that need to be done and that they're interpreting
them properly.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 56
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Geographical disparities in studies prove that the effects of endocrine disruption aren’t bad
***Ozone Hole***
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Ozone Hole Up
Ozone hole is getting bigger.
Antarctica is Earth's southernmost and fifth largest continent with area of 14.4 million square kilometers (5.4 million
square miles), overlying the South Pole. About 98 % of Antarctica is covered with ice and this ice is thick in average
about 1,6 kilometers (1 mile), but will it stay this thick in future? Very unlikely with the current global warming
situation which affects Antarctica much more than other continents because of the continent's icy mass. This
particularly applies to Antarctic Peninsula that is warming five times more than average. Melting of the ice causes
sea level increase and the biggest ice melting so far (according to NASA) happened in 2005 when a mass of ice
about the size of California briefly melted and refrozed as the result of high temperatures. The area of
Antarctic Peninsula had significant increase in annual average temperature at about 2,5 °C in the past 50
years which is almost three times faster than in the rest of the world. Global warming especially affects the area
of Antarctic Peninsula. But ice melting isn't the only problem in Antarctica, there is a giant ozone hole over
Antarctica that continues to grow as we speak and was caused with the emission of chlorofluorocarbons into the
atmosphere. Ozone layer protects Earth from dangerous UVB ultraviolet light from the Sun by absorbing it.
Very high UVB levels have some very damaging effects on human health, particularly in form of skin cancer.
Collapsing of ice shelves is really a trend in Antarctic Peninsula and this negative trend will continue in future
too as scientists agree that temperature of Antarctica will rise over the next 50 years causing even more collapsing
and sea level increase. Life on Antarctica is also affected since for instance in last 30 years Adelie Penguin
populations shrunk by more than 30 % because of Antarctica's changed weather conditions. As said before
Antarctic area is extremely sensitive to global warming because of its icy mass and therefore deserves special
attention when talking about current ecological problems. Many agree that global warming is currently
ecological problem No.1, and if we accept this fact than we really have to do something with areas like Antarctica
and its opposite Africa that are least to blame for global warming, but ironically mostly exposed to global warming
effect.
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Singer 97 (S. Fred, Ph.D., president science and environment policy project, December,
http://www.sepp.org/research/scirsrch/ozon-agu.html)
The evidence from ground stations and satellites is not yet compelling to identify a long-term trend of
anthropogenic ozone depletion. UN reports [1] do not squarely address problems of data
contamination and instrument calibration [2]. A separate issue, inadequately discussed, is the
shortness of the global record, making the removal of the natural variations a daunting task [2].
Another fact is the absence of any credible evidence for a corresponding long-term upward trend of solar UV
radiation at the earth's surface. The widely publicized claim for such a trend [3] is acknowledged to be
spurious and based on a faulty statistical analysis [4]. Yet, ozone depletion is entirely plausible and to be
expected. But chlorine (from CFCs) may not be a major destroyer of ozone molecules in the lower
stratosphere where most of the ozone resides. Important clues are provided by the existence of the
Antarctic ozone hole and the pronounced ozone depletion caused by the Pinatubo eruption; they
indicate that the presence of particles is essential [5]--something not anticipated nor predicted by the
CFC-ozone theory of Rowland-Molina, which applies more appropriately to the upper stratosphere.
Another clue comes from the absence of ozone destruction in the middle stratosphere [6]; it suggests
that global depletion of ozone is related to the increasing levels of lower-stratospheric sulfate aerosols [7]. In
addition, there is evidence, both from theory [8] and from observations [9], that radicals derived from water
vapor are the most effective ozone destroyers in the lower stratosphere; their concentration may be rate-
limiting. But stratospheric WV is known to be rising [10], likely because of the increasing production of
methane by human activities [11].
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 76
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Ozone – Solvency Turn – Increases Warming
A recovery of the ozone layer could cause severe warming effects over Antarctica.
More ev…
ERL 8 (Evironmental Research Web, A Community website from IOP Publishing, Institute of Physics,
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/research/34812)
A new "coupled chemistry" climate model suggests that increasing stratospheric ozone levels in the
southern hemisphere could cause this region to warm by several degrees centigrade. The model also
shows that these changes in ozone might weaken westerly winds here and near the surface. These winds
currently protect Antarctica from warmer air masses circulating nearby. The results suggest that a full
recovery of the stratospheric ozone hole could significantly change the climate in the southern
hemisphere, and, surprisingly, even intensify warming in the Antarctic. While Earth's average surface
temperatures have been increasing, the interior of Antarctica has been showing a unique cooling trend
during the austral summer and autumn caused by ozone depletion, according to Judith Perlwitz of the
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, a joint institute of CU-Boulder and NOAA.
"If the successful control of ozone-depleting substances allows for a full recovery of the ozone hole over
Antarctica, we may finally see the interior of Antarctica begin to warm with the rest of the world," she
added.
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Lieberman 2 (senior policy analyst for CEI. 10/16 “Avoid environmental sensationalism” www.heartland.org
<http://www.heartland.org> )
One important lesson is to avoid environmental sensationalism. The Antarctic ozone hole, though real, has
proven to be an exaggerated phenomenon. The frequently-repeated speculation about ozone depletion-
induced increases in skin cancers, cataracts, and environmental damage has yet to be confirmed, even
after decades of research. Little wonder, since the feared increase in ultraviolet radiation turned out to
be considerably smaller than originally predicted. The ozone hole “crisis” is not being solved so much
as it is proving to have been less of a crisis in the first place.
The ozone hole above Antarctica may not be damaging life in the ocean below after all. If Californian
researchers are right, then increased ultraviolet radiation is having scarcely any effect on the growth of
marine plankton, the base of the ocean's food chain. The team, led by Kevin Arrigo of Stanford
University in Palo Alto, has created computer models of phytoplankton growth over a year in the
southern hemisphere before and after the ozone hole appeared in the 1980s. They included such factors
as the position of the ozone hole, cloud cover, and UV-B strength, the type of ultraviolet radiation that
increases as atmospheric ozone declines. To find out what increased UV-B did to phytoplankton, the
researchers compared two models: one based on data from 1992, a year with a yawning ozone hole and the
other with the same parameters except for the ozone levels, which were taken from 1978, a year of "normal"
conditions before the hole appeared. Over the southern hemisphere ecosystem as a whole, they found that
primary phytoplankton production decreased by only about 1 per cent in 1992, which is significantly lower
than other estimates. Arrigo's work does not discount the results of a number of studies showing that
increased UV-B can stunt phytoplankton growth by 10 per cent or more in localised areas or in the
laboratory (New Scientist, 8 August 1998, p 24). The difference is that his study looked at the big picture
of UV-B for the whole ocean. In previous studies, researchers scaled up measurements of plankton growth
beneath the hole and elsewhere to calculate an overall effect for the whole Southern Ocean. But although
they knew that factors such as cloud cover were important, they are difficult to include in such
calculations.
***Species Extinction***
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Each species is critical to the planet due to its environmental niche. These niches are critical
to ecosystem survival.
Australian Gov. 7 (Department of the environment, water, heritage, and the arts “Australia’s biodiversity”
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:NZQFQtGQVo0J:www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/hotspots/index.html+hot+spots+biodiversity&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=3&
gl=us)
Australia is one of seventeen countries described as being 'megadiverse'. This group of countries has
less than 10% of the global surface, but support more than 70% of the biological diversity on earth. The
concept was first developed by Russell Mittermeier in 1988, as a way to prioritise conservation action. Based on
an analysis of primate conservation priorities, he found that four countries accounted for two-thirds of all
primate species. The analysis was then expanded to include other mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians,
plants and selected groups of insects. This resulted in 17 countries being identified, representing more than
two-thirds of all (known) life forms and the majority of tropical rainforests, coral reefs and other priority
systems. The results of the assessment were published in the Megadiversity: Earth's biologically wealthiest nations
(Mittermeier, Gil and Mittermeier eds. 1997. Cemex, Mexico). Australia is home to between 600,000 and 700,000
species, many of which are endemic, that is they are found nowhere else in the world. These include, for example,
84% of our plant species, 83% of mammals, and 45% of birds. Australia's biodiversity - the plants, animals, micro-
organisms and their ecosystems - is threatened from the impacts of human activities. Since European settlement,
more than 50 species of Australian animals and over 60 species of Australian plants are known to have become
extinct. Refer to our SPRAT database for listings and details of threatened flora and fauna.
Australian Gov. 7 (Department of the environment, water, heritage, and the arts “Australia’s biodiversity”
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:NZQFQtGQVo0J:www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/hotspots/index.html+hot+spots+biodiversity&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=3&
gl=us)
Biodiversity hotspots are areas that support natural ecosystems that are largely intact and where
native species and communities associated with these ecosystems are well represented. They are also areas
with a high diversity of locally endemic species, which are species that are not found or are rarely found
outside the hotspot. The current, planned or potential management activities in hotspots place the natural
values at risk, and it is likely this risk will increase in the future in the absence of active conservation
management. Because the natural values of hotspots are largely intact, undertaking action now to maintain
these values has the potential to provide value-for-money in contributing to our efforts in biodiversity
conservation.
Hotspots account for only 1.4% of the earth’s surface but contain 44% of the earth’s
species. Their destruction guarantees total destruction
Sydney Morning Herald 4 (11/18/04, “Nearly 16,000 species threatened with extinction)
Nearly 16,000 of the world's plant and animal species face extinction largely because of the
destructive behaviour of mankind, says a major new environmental report . Over-exploitation, climate change
and habitat destruction are to blame for a crisis that has wiped out at least 27 species from the wild over the
last two decades, according to the World Conservation Union's (IUCN) red list of threatened species. The report
says more than 7000 animal species are threatened with extinction. They include 32 per cent of amphibians,
42 per cent of turtles and tortoises, 23 per cent of mammals and 12 per cent of birds. Among the casualties
since last year's report, the IUCN confirms the Hawaiian thrush has gone the way of the dodo with no sighting
of the bird for 15 years. Costa Rica's golden toad has also been listed as extinct largely through climate
change, pollution and disease.More than 8000 plants are listed as threatened with the St Helena olive tree the latest
to be declared extinct after the last remaining seedling withered and died in November last year without any seeds
kept.
Marine Hotspots
Marine Ecosystems are vital to human survival and 80% of marine hotspots are adjacent
to terrestrial hotspots furthering there importance
Fox 3 (Douglas, Freelance science writer More than Meets the Eye: Behavior and Conservation
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:HPdca1eso6MJ:www.conbio.org/CIP/article43mor.cfm+biodiversity+%22Invisible+threshold%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=
us)
Population models can be powerful tools for making policy decisions. But these tools can also
dangerously oversimplify reality, as a result overestimating how much exploitation a population can sustain
— or failing to predict the point where population decline crosses the invisible threshold into an accelerating
downward spiral.
“The opportunity we’re really missing,” says William Sutherland, a population biologist at the University
of East Anglia in the U.K., “is to create population models from an understanding of behavior. The reason that’s
incredibly important is we want to predict what will happen under novel conditions” such as exploitation or habitat
alteration.
The extinction of a single species does not spell destruction of the planet
Corneilius van Kooten &. Bulte 0 ( G, Cornelius , Erwin. A.R.E. Sinclair, University of British Columbia, Tilburg University and
University of BC, Conserving Nature’s Biodiversity: insights from biology, ethics and economics, eds. Van Kooten, Bulte and Sinclair, p. 6)
The neoclassical paradigm is the antithesis of the ecological view that natural capital imposes severe
constraints on growth—that economic collapse might be brought about by ecosystem collapse. The neoclassical
view is that, as biological resources become scarce, their relative values will rise, which leads to greater investments
in their conservation. These points are made by Simpson and Sedjo. The neoclassical view is that the elasticity of
substitution between natural capital and reproducible capital is high. Further, this view argues that loss of species is
exaggerated and that species loss does not result in ecosystem dysfunction, and possibly not a loss in genetic
diversity. It is possible to substitute some species for others. In Chapter 9, Bulte et al. explicitly argue that an
economist’s approach to conservation of nature and biodiversity is likely consistent with further conversion of
natural capital into alternative assets that are useful to society at large. They illustrate this point with several case
studies.
DALLAS MORNING NEWS 97, (October 27, 1997, p. lexis-nexis. (BLUEOC 0114)
Even though populations are disappearing quickly, Hughes said that the second "Science" paper is "a bright
spot in all this," describing how the tree of life could survive serious pruning. Even if 95 percent of all species are
lost, 80 percent of the underlying evolutionary history remains intact, write Nee and Sir Robert May, also a biologist
at Oxford. The scientists came up with equations to describe how much evolutionary history would remain after
some species went extinct. And they found that it didn't really matter whether they killed off species at random or in
a particular pattern. Choosing particular species to save didn't preserve much more evolutionary history than saving
species at random, the research shows. The work has implications for conservation biologists, who struggle with
choosing which species are the most important to protect. "It turns out that it really doesn't make a whole lot of
difference," Dr. Nee said.
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Botkin et al. 7 (Daniel, professor emeritus in the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology UC Santa Barbara “Forecasting the effects of
global warming on biodiversity” http://www.aibs.org/bioscience-press-releases/resources/03-07.pdf)
However, niche-theory models have a number of limitations (Guisan and Thuiller 2005). First, they are
primarily correlative, using observed statistical relationships between occurrences of a species and its
environment. Second, they assume that observed distributions are in equilibrium (or quasi-equilibrium) with
their current environment, and that therefore species become extinct outside the region where the
environment, including the climate, meets their present or assumed requirements—contradicting the data
reviewed earlier, as well as many natural history observations of transplanted species, that show species have
survived in small areas of unusual habitat (Pearson 2006), or in habitats that are outside the well-established
geographic range but actually meet their requirements. Thus niche-theory models are likely to overestimate
extinctions, even when they realistically suggest changes in ranges of many species. Another problem with
niche-theory models, as with most models, is that they are difficult to validate, and few have been adequately
validated. For example, Lawler and colleagues (2006) compare six approaches to modeling the effects of global warming on fauna, but do not attempt to validate
any of the models independently. Indeed, bioclimatic models vary greatly in their projections of extinction (e.g., Thuiller et al. 2005, Lawler et al. 2006, Pearson et al.
2006). An additional complication is that the relationship between the occurrence of a species and climatic variables is not always correlated with the mean. For
example, amphibian declines due to outbreaks of a pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) are related to the annual range of temperatures, not to
the mean temperature (Pounds et al. 2006).
Guisan and Thuiler 5 (Le Science Laboratoire de Biologie de la Conservation (LBC), Département d’Ecologie et d’Evolution (DEE) “Predicting
species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models” http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:2qpaAV-eH1YJ:www.will.chez-
alice.fr/pdf/GuisanThuillerEL2005.pdf+Guisan+and+Thuiller+2005&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=firefox-a)
A useful framework for clarification was recently pro- posed by Pulliam (2000), who proposed four
theoretical views of the relationship between niche and distribution: (a) the Grinellian niche, where a species
occurs wherever the environmental conditions are suitable (i.e. fundamental niche, with a population growth rate
‡ 1); (b) the realized niche of Hutchinson, where a species is excluded from part of its fundamental niche by a
competitor or a predator, (c) the source-sink dynamics, where a species commonly occurs in a sink habitat
where its population growth rate is < 1, and thus where it would disappear without constant immigration
from source habitats, and (d) the dispersal limitation situation, where a species is frequently absent from
suitable habitats because of recurring extinction events and limited dispersal ability preventing full
recolonization (e.g. Svenning & Skov 2004). Traditionally, plant ecologists have relied on niche concepts (a)
and (b), whereas zoologists have been keener to additionally consider scenarios.
Guisan and Thuiler 5 (Le Science Laboratoire de Biologie de la Conservation (LBC), Département d’Ecologie et d’Evolution (DEE) “Predicting
species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models” http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:2qpaAV-eH1YJ:www.will.chez-
alice.fr/pdf/GuisanThuillerEL2005.pdf+Guisan+and+Thuiller+2005&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=firefox-a)
The species–area method of forecasting changes in biodiversity under global warming has six
limitations (most summarized by Lewis 2006). First, it assumes an equilibrium (or very slowly changing)
relationship between species number and area. Second, the future climate probably will not be an exact
analog of the current one, so “moving” a bioclimatic zone for an ecological type may not be accurate
(Malcolm et al. 2006). Third, topographic variation, which affects the species–area curve shape,may be greater
or less in the future zone. Fourth, factors relating to the shape of areas and the amount of their fragmentation
suggest that an al ternative “endemics–area curve”may enable more accurate predictions (Harte et al. 2004).
Fifth, the correct z value must be chosen: It must apply to the entire area under consideration, and it must
also consider the type of area and timescale applicable (Rosenzweig 1995). Sixth,many species are not
confined to a particular vegetation zone or type. For the species–area relationship to predict species
extinctions, the area must be for closed communities. Thomas and colleagues (2004) used individual species
distributions as the basis for their analysis. They examined changes in realized niches without taking into account
the likelihood of changed interactions and adaptation, and thus the new areas that they predicted were probably too
small. How these area changes relate to changes in area of closed communities is unclear
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Guisan and Thuiler 5 (Le Science Laboratoire de Biologie de la Conservation (LBC), Département d’Ecologie et d’Evolution (DEE) “Predicting
species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models” http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:2qpaAV-eH1YJ:www.will.chez-
alice.fr/pdf/GuisanThuillerEL2005.pdf+Guisan+and+Thuiller+2005&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=firefox-a)
In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown
dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of
biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many
theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the
ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions
inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the
assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for
incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at
multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.
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Safriel 97 [Uriel N., Professor, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, “Relations Between Biodiversity,
Desertification, and Climate Change,” Israel Environment Bulletin, Vol. 20, No. 1, http://www.israel-
mfa.gov.il/MFA/Archive/Communiques/1997/RELATIONS%20BETWEEN%20BIODIVERSITY-
%20DESERTIFICATION%20AN]
However, the prospective loss of biodiversity due to global warming may still be mitigated by an exploitation
of the genetic diversity of species living in the semiarid ecosystems of Israel. There is a growing amount of
evidence supporting a theory which suggests that geographically peripheral populations of a species, as
compared to the populations of the same species inhabiting core areas of its geographical distribution, are
living under low environmental stability, have high within-species diversity, high evolutionary
potential, and most importantly high resistance to environmental changes, hence persistence under the
forecasted climatic change. There are therefore climate change scenarios that will cause core populations of
drought-resistant species to become extinct due to their low genetic diversity (hence a lack of drought-
resistant genotypes), whereas peripheral populations will persist and could be used to rehabilitate the
core areas of distribution of their species. This is not to say that the semiarid peripheral populations, if
protected from development and desertification, will not be affected by climate change. Climate change will
act as a selection agent, that will eliminate the non-resistant genotypes and thus will reduce genetic diversity.
But the populations will persist and will be used for rehabilitation of the core areas. The rehabilitated
population of a given species will differ in its genetic structure as compared to the extinct one it will be
composed predominantly of drought-resistant genotypes, originating in the semiarid region. But the species
will persist, and the ecosystems will not be damaged.
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Zimmer 7 (Carl, Writer for New York Times. 1/23/07 “A Radical Step to Preserve a Species: Assisted Migration”)
Conservation biologists are talking seriously about assisted migration because the effects of climate
change are already becoming clear. The average temperature of the planet is 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit higher
than it was in 1880. Dr. Camille Parmesan, a biologist at the University of Texas, reviewed hundreds of studies on
the ecological effects of climate change this month in the journal Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and
Systematics. Many plant species are now budding earlier in the spring. Animals migrate earlier as well. And
the ranges of many species are shifting to higher latitudes, as they track the climate that suits them best. This
is hardly the first time that species have moved in response to climate change. For over two million years, the
planet has swung between ice ages and warm periods, causing some species to shift their ranges hundreds of
miles. But the current bout of warming may be different. The earth was already relatively warm when it began.
“These species haven’t seen an earth as warm as this one’s going to be in a long, long time,” said Dr. Mark
Schwartz, a conservation biologist at the University of California, Davis.
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Sedjo 0 ( Roger, Sr. Fellow, Resources for the Future, “Conserving Nature’s Biodiversity: insights from biology,
ethics and economics”, eds. p. 114)
As a critical input into the existence of humans and of life on earth, biodiversity obviously has a very high
value (at least to humans). But, as with other resource questions, including public goods, biodiversity is not an
either/or question, but rather a question of “how much.” Thus, we may argue as to how much biodiversity is
desirable or is required for human life (threshold) and how much is desirable (insurance) and at what price, just as
societies argue over the appropriate amount and cost of national defense. As discussed by Simpson, the value of
water is small even though it is essential to human life, while diamonds are inessential but valuable to humans. The
reason has to do with relative abundance and scarcity, with market value pertaining to the marginal unit. This water-
diamond paradox can be applied to biodiversity. Although biological diversity is essential, a single species has only
limited value, since the global system will continue to function without that species. Similarly, the value of a piece
of biodiversity (e.g., 10 ha of tropical forest) is small to negligible since its contribution to the functioning of the
global biodiversity is negligible. The global ecosystem can function with “somewhat more” or “somewhat less”
biodiversity, since there have been larger amounts in times past and some losses in recent times. Therefore, in the
absence of evidence to indicate that small habitat losses threaten the functioning of the global life support system,
the value of these marginal habitats is negligible. The “value question” is that of how valuable to the life support
function are species at the margin. While this, in principle, is an empirical question, in practice it is probably
unknowable. However, thus far, biodiversity losses appear to have had little or no effect on the functioning of the
earth’s life support system, presumably due to the resiliency of the system, which perhaps is due to the redundancy
found in the system. Through most of its existence, earth has had far less biological diversity. Thus, as in the water-
diamond paradox, the value of the marginal unit of biodiversity appears to be very small.
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Motluk 2 (Alison, literary critic, Salon.com, book review, “Future Evolution” by Peter Ward, January 29,
http://www.salon.com/books/review/2002/01/29/ward/)
But Ward's Big Idea is a fascinating one. (Good thing, too, as this isn't the first book he's written on the
topic.) Unlike the doomsayers out there, he doesn't think there's another mass extinction looming. Rather, he's
convinced it's well underway, and that the worst is already over. Most of the big mammals that are going to die off
already have. Among those no longer with us are the mastodons, the mammoths, the saber-toothed tiger, the giant
short-faced bear. "It is visible in the rear-view mirror, a roadkill already turned into geologic litter -- bones not yet
even petrified -- the end of the Age of Megamammals," he writes.
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Randall & Farmer, (Alan, Michael Professors at Ohio State, 1995, “Handbook of Environmental Economics”
http://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/eeeenvchp/)
Recognition of other co-equal or superior values, moral principles, or individual concerns returns us to the slick
terrain. The case for biodiversity is always circumstantial, that is, relative to the possibilities that are available and
the strength of the competing claims. Ehrenfeld (1988) claimed the high ground by resisting all the circumstantial
approaches as mere manifestations of the moral repugnancy of homocentrism. But, his victory is empy, since it
depends on first-principle or preeminent value status for biodiversity, and such status is unlikely to survive scrutiny
given the powerful appeal of many other candidates.
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Raup 91 (David, Dr. of Zoology. University of chicago., EXTINCTION: BAD GENES OR BAD LUCK, p.187 (MHHAR3474)
In Chapter 1, I suggested that without species extinction, biodiversity would increase until some saturation level was
reached, after which speciation would be forced to stop. At saturation, natural selection would continue to operate
and improved adaptations would continue to develop. But many of the innovations in evolution, such as new body
plans or modes of life, would probably not appear. The result would be a slowing of evolution and an approach to
some sort of steady-state condition. According to this view, the principal role of extinction in evolution is to
eliminate species and thereby to reduce biodiversity so that space -- ecological and geographic -- is available for
innovation.
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***Water Scarcity***
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Water key to social, economic, cultural, and political wellbeing among isolated, poor
regions sharing sources
Sandia Lab 06 (Sandia is a National Nuclear Security Administration laboratory. “Address water scarcity, water
quality issues around the world now, Sandia/CSIS report says” FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 31, 2006
http://www.sandia.gov/news/resources/releases/2006/waterpol.html accessed July 5, 2008)
The white paper included several other findings. They include: • Water is a foundation for human prosperity.
Adequate, high-quality water supplies provide a basis for the growth and development of human social,
economic, cultural, and political systems. Conversely, economic stagnation and political instability will
persist or worsen in those regions where the quality and reliability of water supplies remain uncertain.
• Water problems are geopolitically destabilizing. Water scarcity and poor water have the potential to
destabilize isolated regions within countries or regions sharing limited sources of water. There is an
increasing likelihood of social strife and armed conflict resulting from pressures of water scarcity and
mismanagement. • Poor governance and poor economies in regions around the world where water is
scarce impair the application of innovative technology and innovative policies.
Water wars are real and dangerous in both cases of water scarcity and flooding
WP 07 (Doug StruckWashington Post Staff Writer. “Warming Will Exacerbate Global Water Conflicts”
Washington Post Monday, August 20, 2007; A08 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2007/08/19/AR2007081900967_pf.html accessed July 5, 2008)
The potential for conflict is more than theoretical. Turkey, Syria and Iraq bristle over the Euphrates
and Tigris rivers. Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt trade threats over the Nile. The United Nations has said
water scarcity is behind the bloody wars in Sudan's Darfur region. In Somalia, drought has spawned
warlords and armies. Already, the World Health Organization says, 1 billion people lack access to
potable water. In northern China, retreating glaciers and shrinking wetlands that feed the Yangtze River
prompted researchers to warn that water supplies for hundreds of millions of people may be at risk. "The
government is talking about harmony between man and nature. But we still haven't seen the turning
point," Ma Jun, author of "China's Water Crisis," said in a phone interview from Beijing. Even where global
warming brings more precipitation, it may come at the wrong time. If precipitation that traditionally
feeds a glacier comes too early, as rain instead of snow, the result is a quick torrent followed by months of
meager trickle. And if the rain comes in torrents, it brings scenes like those this summer from Texas and
India.
Water scarcity creates irrigation problems in both the US and developing countries
WP 7 (Doug StruckWashington Post Staff Writer. “Warming Will Exacerbate Global Water Conflicts” Washington
Post Monday, August 20, 2007; A08 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2007/08/19/AR2007081900967_pf.html accessed July 5, 2008)
Humans have long attempted to reconcile nature's inconstancies with giant plumbing: reservoirs and
dams that hold back floodwaters for more gradual release; dikes and other barriers to protect developed
areas; canals and pipelines to take water from wet areas to dry. But that kind of infrastructure is expensive,
especially for Third World governments. Environmentalists decry the impact on wildlife. And building
dams in earthquake zones tempts disaster. Even in rich California, "there's been no significant reservoir
construction for many years," said Dave Kranz, a spokesman for the state Farm Bureau. "Reservoir
construction is terribly expensive. It's easier to block a reservoir than to build one." Researcher Seager
suggests that humans ought to bend more to nature than trying to bend nature. "We're not going to be
able to carry on like we are," he said. "Do we really want to keep growing irrigated alfalfa in the high
desert, in New Mexico and Arizona? It really makes no sense." But Mark McKean, a Fresno Valley farmer,
had to leave some of his fields of cotton unwatered when the flow in the irrigation canals stopped this
summer. But he chafes at Seager's suggestion. "Sure, my tomatoes can be grown in other parts of the world,"
he said. "But do we want to give up the economic base that supports small, rural towns? Do we want to
ignore child labor growing our food somewhere else? Do we want to know if pesticides are being used?
What are we willing to pay for all that?"
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Companies face reputational risk with investors and customers with water shortage
Ostroff 8 (Jim, “Drought's Impact on Businesses Gaining Scrutiny: Lenders, investors and customers are becoming increasingly aware of
how water shortages can be a negative for businesses.” The Kiplinger Washington Editors, June 3, 2008
http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/forecast/archive/drought_impact_on_firms_gains_scrutiny_080603.html accessed July 5, 2008)
Water shortage risks are already an issue in emerging economies, such as in China, India and South
Korea. In those nations and in the U.S., even the potential for problems related to water can influence
perceptions of companies held by individual and commercial customers and investors. Craig Hanson,
deputy director of the World Resources Institute program for people and ecosystems, says: "Companies
should expect they'll face a reputational risk over water usage...[and] companies that are perceived as
water hogs in areas where water is becoming scarce will become targets of community groups."
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A major drought has squeezed electricity output at big dams across southwest China, highlighting the risks of
Beijing's massive hydropower expansion plans on coal and oil markets in a warmer, drier world. Ships are stranded,
millions are short on drinking water, and power supplies to big consumers in several Chinese provinces have been
cut back, industry officials and local media have said. And while building more dams will help Beijing meet more of
its electricity demand using resources within its own borders, it also risks short-term surges in consumption of oil,
coal or natural gas to generate emergency power when rivers run low. The world's number-two energy user already
gets 15 percent of its electricity from hydropower and aims to increase capacity by more than half to 190 gigawatts
—over double Britain's entire stock of power plants -- by the end of the decade. But Australia's similarly ambitious
Snowy Hydro power scheme, designed more than half a century ago as a lifeline for the fertile yet dry Murray-
Darling river basin, offers a grim warning. Normally the provider of three quarters of the mainland's renewable
energy, it has seen output tumble and drowned towns re-emerge from shrinking reservoirs after years of poor rains.
"The Australian example shows how risky hydropower is, from the point of view of droughts," said CLSA analyst
Simon Powell. "The Snowy system really is not being dispatched at all. And that has caused a tightening of supply
on the generation side, resulting in a spiking of wholesale electricity prices." Other countries like Pakistan and
Vietnam that are heavily reliant on hydropower have been forced to step up imports of fuel oil or buy power from
neighbours during dry spells, driving up costs for producers and unsettling regional oil markets.
WORSE TO COME
But the country has naturally low per capita water resources, and China's top water official has warned that the
challenge of managing scarce supplies is compounded by climate change. The frequency of both the droughts and
floods that regularly batter China are expected to increase in a warmer world. And rural demands could compound
the impact of short supplies, because China tends to time releases of water to suit the needs of farmers rather than
power companies. For instance, water levels behind major reservoirs nationwide rose 6 percent in early January
from 2006, but only because dam operators are stocking up ahead of spring planting season. Below dams, boat
traffic piled up on drought-stricken rivers, and authorities had to release water from behind the Three Gorges Dam to
ease cargo ship stranding downstream. That may have helped power wholesalers in the manufacturing hub of
Guangdong, which is looking to the dam for extra supply to help tide over expected summer shortfalls, local media
reported. But if the dam cannot deliver, generators will have to chase tight coal or pricey fuel oil supplies, pushing
prices up in a cycle that global warming could make unpleasantly familiar.
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Christian Science Monitor 08 (“Is water becoming ‘the new oil’? Population, pollution, and climate put the
squeeze on potable supplies – and private companies smell a profit. Others ask: Should water be a human right?” By
Mark Clayton: Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor. May 29, 2008 edition
http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/05/29/is-water-becoming-‘the-new-oil’/ accessed July 5, 2008)
Water, Dow Chemical Chairman Andrew Liveris told the World Economic Forum in February, “is the oil of this
century.” Developed nations have taken cheap, abundant fresh water largely for granted. Now global population
growth, pollution, and climate change are shaping a new view of water as “blue gold.” Water’s hot-commodity
status has snared the attention of big equipment suppliers like General Electric as well as big private water
companies that buy or manage municipal supplies – notably France-based Suez and Aqua America, the largest US-
based private water company. Global water markets, including drinking water distribution, management, waste
treatment, and agriculture are a nearly $500 billion market and growing fast, says a 2007 global investment
report. But governments pushing to privatize costly to maintain public water systems are colliding with a
global “water is a human right” movement. Because water is essential for human life, its distribution is best
left to more publicly accountable government authorities to distribute at prices the poorest can afford, those
water warriors say. “We’re at a transition point where fundamental decisions need to be made by societies
about how this basic human need – water – is going to be provided,” says Christopher Kilian, clean-water
program director for the Boston-based Conservation Law Foundation. “The profit motive and basic human need
[for water] are just inherently in conflict.”
Will “peak water” displace “peak oil” as the central resource question? Some see such a scenario rising.
“What’s different now is that it’s increasingly obvious that we’re running up against limits to new [fresh water]
supplies,” says Peter Gleick, a water expert and president of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Envi-
ronment, and Security, a nonpartisan think tank in Oakland, Calif. “It’s no longer cheap and easy to drill another
well or dam another river.” The idea of “peak water” is an imperfect analogy, he says. Unlike oil, water is not
used up but only changes forms. The world still has the same 326 quintillion gallons, NASA estimates. But
some 97 percent of it is salty. The world’s remaining accessible fresh-water supplies are divided among industry
(20 percent), agriculture (70 percent), and domestic use (10 percent), according to the United Nations. Meanwhile,
fresh-water consumption worldwide has more than doubled since World War II to nearly 4,000 cubic
kilometers annually and set to rise another 25 percent by 2030, says a 2007 report by the Zurich-based
Sustainable Asset Management (SAM) group investment firm. Up to triple that is available for human use, so
there should be plenty, the report says. But waste, climate change, and pollution have left clean water supplies
running short. “We have ignored demand for decades, just assuming supplies of water would be there,” Dr.
Gleick says. “Now we have to learn to manage water demand and – on top of that – deal with climate change,
too.”
Population and economic growth across Asia and the rest of the developing world is a major factor driving
fresh-water scarcity. The earth’s human population is predicted to rise from 6 billion to about 9 billion by 2050, the
UN reports. Feeding them will mean more irrigation for crops.
Increasing attention is also being paid to the global “virtual water” trade. It appears in food or other products that
require water to produce, products that are then exported to another nation. The US may consume even more
water – virtual water – by importing goods that require lots of water to make. At the same time, the US exports
virtual water through goods it sells abroad.
In the US today, about 33.5 million Americans get their drinking water from privately owned utilities that make up
about 16 percent of the nation’s community water systems, according to the National Association of Water
Companies, a trade association.
“While water is essential to life, and we believe everyone deserves the right of access to water, that doesn’t
mean water is free or should be provided free,” says Peter Cook, executive director of the NAWC. “Water should
be priced at the cost to provide it – and subsidized for those who can’t afford it.”
But private companies’ promises of efficient, cost-effective water delivery have not always come true. Bolivia
ejected giant engineering firm Bechtel in 2000, unhappy over the spiking cost of water for the city of Cochabamba.
Last year Bolivia’s president publicly celebrated the departure of French water company Suez, which had held a 30-
year contract to supply La Paz.
In her book, “Blue Covenant,” Maude Barlow – one of the leaders of the fledgling “water justice” movement – sees
a dark future if private monopolies control access to fresh water. She sees this happening when, instead of
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curbing pollution and increasing conservation, governments throw up their hands and sell public water
companies to the private sector or contract with private desalination companies.
“Water is a public resource and a human right that should be available to all,” she says. “All these companies are
doing is recycling dirty water, selling it back to utilities and us at a huge price. But they haven’t been as
successful as they want to be. People are concerned about their drinking water and they’ve met resistance.”
Private-water industry officials say those pushing to make water a “human right” are ideologues struggling to
preserve inefficient public water authorities that sell water below the cost to produce it and so cheaply it is
wasted – doing little to extend service to the poor.
Cooperative water sharing negotiations will solve for now, even with conflicts of interest
Spillmann 5 (Kurt R., “Attention is increasingly being drawn towards rivalries around the precious resource
water.” Science Life Published: 06.10.2005, 06:00 http://archiv.ethlife.ethz.ch/e/articles/sciencelife/kolukrsp3.html
Water wars? Accessed July 16, 2008)
In his painstaking analysis of all conflicts related to water listed by the FAO, Aaron T. Wolf concludes that
predictions of water wars are exaggerated and that willingness to co-operate and co-operative solutions
are more often employed to resolve this type of altercation. The German scientist Petra Holtrup has also
found many examples proving the capability, in practice, of numerous non-binding action programmes
which enable those involved to agree on a co-operatively regulated, and therefore non-violent, use of
waterways that flow through more than one country. The Research Center for Security Studies at ETH
Zurich has also shown, within framework of the NCCR North-South Programme, how co-operation can be
fostered with regard to scarce water supplies in the basin of the Nile by the means of so-called
"dialogue workshops“ (1).
Such co-operative solutions nevertheless come in for some fundamental criticism. Co-operation calls for
renunciation, says John Waterbury, political scientist and President of the American University in Beirut.
Waivering one's right to something is fundamentally irreconcilable with one's own interests, he states,
and this is the reason why the problem-solving power of such regulations was, at best, only a "Utopian
vision". It was difficult in practical terms to grasp the concept of "for the common good", which
counted for far less with the individual than costs that touched him or her directly.
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The link between warming, migration, and conflict is too shaky for you to vote on this
impact.
UNDEP 7 (“Climate Change and Conflict: The Migration Link” International Peace Academy members Nils
Petter Gleditsch, Ragnhild Nordås and Idean Salehyan UNDEP May 2007, PDF accessed July 16, 2008)
The link between climate change, migration, and conflict remains conjectural. Because it is difficult to
isolate different causes of migration, it is unclear whether specific population movements have
occurred as a direct result of environmental stresses rooted in climatic shift.There is good evidence
linking conflict and emigration in sending areas and immigra- tion and conflict in receiving areas. On the
other hand, there is a lack of consensus and systematic data on the effects of climate change on
migration and on the effect of climate-induced migration on conflict. Clearly identifying the sources of
environmentally- induced migration and environmental conflicts is a difficult, yet much needed endeavor.
Empirical evidence can only reveal patterns of social behavior that have already occurred. Much of the
debate about climate change involves future forecasts and possible scenarios.It is quite possible that the
most disruptive effects of climate change will occur at some point in the future. Thus, preparation for future
events must be rooted in an analysis of best and worst case scenarios and firm theoretical founda- tions
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No water wars from migration—at worst, there will be small unorganized riots.
UNDEP 7 (“Climate Change and Conflict: The Migration Link” International Peace Academy members Nils
Petter Gleditsch, Ragnhild Nordås and Idean Salehyan UNDEP May 2007, PDF accessed July 16, 2008)
Purely environmental migrants, on the other hand, often do not have political agendas in their home
region and they do not necessarily regard themselves as victims of persecution deserving justice. If
people flee for economic or environmental reasons rather than because of armed conflict, the risk of
importing organized and sustained conflict should be lower. Current migration patterns are instructive in
this regard. Across Europe and North America, hundreds of thousands of economic migrants gain access each
year. Although racist attacks, ethnic riots, and murders do occur, such incidents have generally been
short-lived and without large-scale organization.
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***Warming Answers***
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Bergeron et al 98 (Another Look at the Little Ice Age Yves Bergeron, Mike Flannigan and David W. Schindler
BioScience, Vol. 48, No. 11 (Nov., 1998), pp. 884-885)
However, our own research indicates that there is a large regional variation in the response of fire
activity and lake levels to climate warming. Contrary to what is portrayed by Schindler for northwestern
Ontario, the warming after the end of the Little Ice Age (c. 1850) in Quebec's boreal forest has led to a
decrease in forest fire activity (Bergeron and Archambault 1993) and an increase in lake water levels
(Begin and Payette 1988, Tardif and Bergeron 1997). Schindler argues that climatic warming implies an
increase in tem- perature, which in itself may cause an increase in fire activity as well as increased
evapotranspiration and lake level decline. However, increased temperature is often associ- ated with an
increase in precipitation that often can more than compensate for the effect of increased temperature
on the water balance. Our work strongly suggests that de- creased forest fire activity and in- creased
lake levels in Quebec's boreal forest are related to a more positive water balance since the post- Little
Ice Age warming began. This interpretation has been con- firmed by simulations of the Fire Weather Index
(FWI) for a doubling of carbon dioxide scenario using a general circulation model (GCM; FWI integrates
weather variables that control fire intensity and spread and is inversely related to the water bal- ance.
Simulations showed that ex- cept for Central Canada, where the FWI might increase significantly, most of
the boreal forest would be characterized by a decreased or un- changed maximum or mean FWI. In a
recent study (Flannigan et al. in press), we were able to show that historical frequency of forest fires
observed in the Canadian boreal for- est was indeed what was predicted by the GCMs. Although we
tend to agree with Schindler that boreal for- ests are threatened, we think that the scientific arguments on
climatic warming developed in his article do not properly take into account large regional differences
in the climate and in the response of the ecosystem to changes in the climate.
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Botkin et al. 7 (Daniel, professor emeritus in the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology UC Santa Barbara “Forecasting the effects of
global warming on biodiversity” http://www.aibs.org/bioscience-press-releases/resources/03-07.pdf)
Now that it is widely accepted that global warming is happening, there is a growing demand for accurate
forecasts of its effects, and much concern about its effects on biological diversity. Specialists know that
theoretical models of these effects are limited—although useful in certain contexts when all the provisions,
preconditions, and limitations of a given model are understood—and should not be taken literally. Often,
however, the media do not convey these caveats. It is no wonder that policymakers and the general public are
confused. The purpose of an environmental forecast is either to support a decision process or to test a
scientific hypothesis. To support a decision process, it must be clear which decisions the forecast expects to
improve. To mitigate the effects of global warming on biodiversity, two distinct kinds of actions are needed: long-
term actions, such as reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, and short-term ones, such as designing an appropriate
nature reserve. Fossil evidence and recent ecological and genetic research, along with specific problems with present
forecasting methods, lead us to believe that current projections of extinction rates are overestimates. Previous
work has failed to adequately take into account mechanisms of persistence. We note a Quaternary
conundrum:While current empirical and theoretical ecological forecasts suggest that many species could be at
risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages few extinctions are documented (Willis et al. 2004). The
potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable
forecasting.
Botkin et al. 7 (Daniel, professor emeritus in the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology UC Santa Barbara “Forecasting the effects of
global warming on biodiversity” http://www.aibs.org/bioscience-press-releases/resources/03-07.pdf)
Fossil evidence and recent ecological and genetic research, along with specific problems with present
forecasting methods, lead us to believe that current projections of extinction rates are overestimates. Previous
work has failed to adequately take into account mechanisms of persistence. We note a Quaternary
conundrum:While current empirical and theoretical ecological forecasts suggest that many species could be at
risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages few extinctions are documented (Willis et al. 2004). The
potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable
forecasting.
Botkin et al. 7 (Daniel, professor emeritus in the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology UC Santa Barbara “Forecasting the effects of
global warming on biodiversity” http://www.aibs.org/bioscience-press-releases/resources/03-07.pdf)
Among the many meanings of the term “biodiversity,” it is important to select one as the focus for
each specific forecast. Most of the existing literature on forecasting the effects of global warming on
biodiversity seems to assume that “biodiversity” has some universally accepted meaning, and that readers
already know what this is. However, biodiversity is a complex concept, and its meanings are becoming both
more complex and more quantitative as greater emphasis is placed on DNA analysis as a determinant of
genetically distinct units. As if distinctions among different levels of organization of biodiversity (genes,
species, ecosystems, etc.) were not already complex, there are even more fundamental distinctions between
different ways of valuing biodiversity: intrinsic value (species’ value independent of human use and needs)
and use value (the human use of diversity, ranging from the desire to harvest one species to the ability to see
and appreciate complex ecosystems).
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***Oil Spills***
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C) Extinction
Bearden`2k(Lt. Col, Tom Bearden, PhD Nuclear Engineering, April 25, 2000,
http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/042500%20-%20modified.htm)
Just prior to the terrible collapse of the World economy, with the crumbling well underway and rising,
it is inevitable that some of the [wmd] weapons of mass destruction will be used by one or more nations
on others. An interesting result then---as all the old strategic studies used to show---is that everyone will fire everything as
fast as possible against their perceived enemies. The reason is simple: When the mass destruction
weapons are unleashed at all, the only chance a nation has to survive is to desperately try to destroy its
perceived enemies before they destroy it. So there will erupt a spasmodic unleashing of the long range
missiles, nuclear arsenals, and biological warfare arsenals of the nations as they feel the economic
collapse, poverty, death, misery, etc. a bit earlier. The ensuing holocaust is certain to immediately draw
in the major nations also, and literally a hell on earth will result. In short, we will get the
great Armageddon we have been fearing since the advent of the nuclear genie. Right now, my personal estimate is that we have
about a 99% chance of that scenario or some modified version of it, resulting.
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B) Extinction
McMichael`3 (Anthony J, National Centre of Epidemiology and Population Health Director, Climate Change and Human
Health: Risks and Responses, p. 254,
http://books.google.com/books?id=tQFYJjDEwhIC&pg=PA254&lpg=PA254&dq=coral+reefs+critical+human+survival&source
=web&ots=PpvyXNZ_Ve&sig=HuTi0RaOUUfhEhs1_zYoDQhJFz0&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=4&ct=result#PPP
1,M1)
Coral reefs are one of the most threatened global ecosystems and also one of the most vital. They offer
critical support to human survival, especially in developing countries, serving as barriers for coastal
protection; major tourist attractions; and especially as a productive source of food for a large portion of
the population (39, 40). Coral reefs supply a wide variety of valuable fisheries, including both fish and
invertebrate species (41). Some fisheries are harvested for food, others are collected for the curio and
aquarium trades.
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Changed shipping lanes keep the oil away from major marine habitats
Doyle`2k (Jim, San Francisco Chronicle, Shipping Lanes Moved Farther Out
New routes should keep oil spills from reaching Central California coast, June 1, 2000, http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-
bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2000/06/01/MN54659.DTL)
The new shipping lanes are aimed at preserving the rugged Central California coastline, especially the
waters of four national marine sanctuaries that commercial cargo vessels pass through. The Monterey Bay
National Marine Sanctuary, the nation's largest offshore refuge, has the greatest biodiversity of cold-water
marine life in the world. Its kelp forests provide habitat for a wide range of wildlife, including rare sea otters,
sea birds, fish and invertebrates, many of which are particularly susceptible to the effects of an oil spill. ``A
major spill can kill thousands of animals,'' said Holly Price, water quality director for the sanctuary. ``The
name of the game here is prevention -- preventing that oil from reaching the coast.''
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***Deforestation***
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Akhand Jyoti 3 (Akhand Jyoti is the leading magazine in Mathura, India. “The Disaster of Deforestation” March-April 2003.
http://www.akhandjyoti.org/?Akhand-Jyoti/2003/Mar-Apr/Deforestation/)
Imagining Earth without forests is a horrifying picture to conceive. As its knowledge base has expanded and
deepened, mankind has realised that forests are extremely important to the survival of humans and other life
forms on earth. Yet deforestation continues unabated in different parts of the world. According to the World Resource Institute based at
Washington DC (U.S.A.), the rates of rainforest destruction are 2.4 acre per second, 149 acres per minute, 214000 acres per day and 78
million acres per year. Literature survey and research by Stephen Hui reveals that British Columbia has about 40% of its original forests
remaining, while Europe has less than half; the United States have approximately 1-2% of their original forest cover; more than
80% of the planet’s natural forests have already been destroyed.1 This article examines the importance of forests,
the effects of deforestation on health and environment and an effective remedy to replenish the flora already lost. Plants and animals,
along with microorganisms, comprise life on Earth. Herbivorous animals sustain their life by consuming plants. Carnivorous animals
and birds kill herbivorous animals for food; therefore indirectly they also depend on plants. Sea creatures eat aquatic plants and humans
consume crop plants. A large variety of birds feed on seeds. There would rarely be any animal or bird who do not use plants directly or
indirectly to satisfy their food requirements. It is thus not surprising that tropical forests are the home to 70% of the world’s plants and
animals (more than 13 million distinct species) 30% of all bird species and 90% of invertebrates.2 Loss of forests has led to the
extinction of thousands of species, estimated to be 50000 species annually. Besides being the source for
food, plants help us in a number of other ways. Animals, including humans, inhale oxygen and exhale
carbon dioxide; plants take up carbon dioxide and in return they release oxygen – this exchange is very
important. Forests in particular act as a huge carbon dioxide sink. If there were not enough trees to
absorb carbon dioxide, its accumulation would make the environment poisonous. Over the last 150 years, the
amount of carbon dioxide has increased by about 25%.3 Carbon-dioxide also contributes to global warming.
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Butler 7 (Rhett Butler has been researching and studying rainforests since 1995. “INCREASE OF TROPICAL DISEASES”
http://rainforests.mongabay.com/0904.htm)
The emergence of tropical diseases and outbreaks of new diseases, including nasty hemorrhagic fevers like ebola
and lassa fever, are a subtle but serious impact of deforestation. With increased human presence in the
rainforest, and exploiters pushing into deeper areas, man is encountering "new" microorganisms with
behaviors unlike those previously known. As the primary hosts of these pathogens are eliminated or
reduced through forest disturbance and degradation, disease can break out among humans. Although
not unleashed yet, someday one of these microscopic killers could lead to a massive human die-off as
deadly for our species as we have been for the species of the rainforest. Until then, local populations will continue
to be menaced by mosquito-borne diseases like dengue fever, Rift Valley fever, and malaria, and water-borne diseases like cholera.
Many emergent and resurgent diseases are directly linked to land alterations which bring humans in closer contact with such pathogens.
For example, malaria and snailborne schistosomiasis have escalated because of the creation of artificial pools of water like dams, rice
paddies, drainage ditches, irrigation canals, and puddles created by tractor treads. Malaria is a particular problem in deforested and
degraded areas, though not in forested zones where there are few stagnant ground pools for mosquito breeding. These pools are most
abundant in cleared regions and areas where tractors tear gashes in the earth. Malaria is already a major threat to indigenous peoples who
have developed no resistance to the disease nor any access to antimalarial drugs. Malaria alone is cited as being responsible for killing
an estimated 20 percent of the Yanomani in Brazil and Venezuela. Malaria—caused by unicelluar parasites transferred in the saliva of
mosquitoes when they bite—is an especially frightening disease for its drug-resistant forms. Thanks to poor prescribing techniques on
the part of doctors, there are now strains in Southeast Asia reputed to be resistant to more than 20 anti-malarial drugs. There is serious
concern that global climate change will affect the distribution of malaria, which currently infects roughly 270 million people worldwide
and kills 1-2 million a year— 430,000-680,000 children in sub-Saharan Africa alone. The outbreak of disease in the tropics does not
affect only the people of those countries, since virtually any disease can be incubated for enough time to allow penetration into the
temperate developed countries. For example, any Central African doctor infected with the ebola virus from a
patient can board a plane and land in London within 10 hours. The virus could quickly spread,
especially if airborne, among the city's population of 8 million. Additionally, every person at the
airport who is exposed can unknowingly carry the pathogen home to their native countries around the
world.
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Rochen and Stock 98 (Andy Rochen and Jocelyn Stock are undergraduate researchers at the University of Michigan. “Deforestation
and Society” http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/deforestation.htm)
To understand why deforestation is such a pressing and urgent issue, forests must first be given credit for
what they bring to global ecosystems and the quality of life that all species maintain. Tropical Rainforests
presently give a place to call home for 50% - 90% of all organisms, 90% of our relatives, the primates, and
50 million creatures that can live no place but the rich rainforests (World Rainforest Movement 16). Not only
are other species at risk, but the human race also benefits from what the trees give. From something as minor as
the spices that indulge food to life giving medicines, the rainforests amplify and save lives. According to the World
Rainforest Movement, 25% of medicines come from the forests (28). This is a number that does not do
justice to all the cures that have yet to be discovered or that have been destroyed. The forests give life, not
only to other species, but they help to prolong the human race. The forests have global implications not just on
life but on the quality of it. Trees improve the quality of the air that species breath by trapping carbon and other particles
produced by pollution. Trees determine rainfall and replenish the atmosphere. As more water gets put back in the
atmosphere, clouds form and provide another way to block out the sun’s heat. Trees are what cool and regulates the earth’s
climate in conjunction with other such valuable services as preventing erosion, landslides, and making the most infertile soil
rich with life. Mother earth has given much responsibility to trees.
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Abiola 97 (Jayeola Omotola Abiola is an Undergraduate, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, College of Environmental
Resources Management, University of Agriculture, P.M.B. 2240, AbeoLuta, Ogun State, Nigeria. “FORESTRY FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT: TOWARD THE 21st CENTURY” http://www.fao.org/forestry/docrep/wfcxi/publi/V8/Ee/V8E_E1.HTM)
Forest degradation as a result of deforestation ignites a lot of problems for human existence and the
problem if unchecked can cause further ecological problems leading to human extinction. Forest clearing due
to logging, land degradation resulting from shifting cultivation social and economic development, range10 depletion as a result of
overgrazing, project execution without environmental impact assessment (EIA) leads to climatic changes, global warming,
loss of biological diversity pollution and desertification. The tropical forest ecosystem which has been
described as home to more than half the earth's species (Spore 59 1995) has been disappearing at the rate of tens of
thousands of square kilometers per year. Over this period, tropical deforestation rate increased by more than 50 percent and the world
lost 10% of its tropical forest. Loss of biological diversity is another major area of` concern in forestry for
sustainable development. Countless plants and animals have been driven into extinction through
deforestation, thus contributing to the build up of green house gases. Biodiversity is a comprehensive word for the
degree of nature variety including both the number and frequency of ecosystems, species and genes in a given assemblage (Mc Neely
1988). Biological diversity is a word which embraces both species richness and genetic diversity of an
ecosystem, both of which are threatened. Throughout the world, species extinction and a reduction in
genetic variability is taking place at rates never before witnessed, especially in the tropical forests
which are often thought of as being the richest area. These losses can be attributed to various factors including
pollution, physical disturbance of the forest, exploitation for food and other uses, deliberate extirpation, habitat loss and fragmentation.
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AT – Deforestation
Despite decreased deforestation, rates are rising and forests are still at risk
WWF 7 (The WWF is the largest multinational conservation organization in the world. “Amazon Deforestation Rates Decreasing,
Rainforests Still Threatened” http://www.worldwildlife.org/who/media/press/2007/WWFPresitem6285.html)
New data from the government of Brazil shows that deforestation rates for the Brazilian Amazon from
August 2006 to July 2007 have fallen for the third consecutive year - and are the lowest registered for the region since 1991.
While these rates have reached historic lows, deforestation in the Amazon still proceeded at an
alarming speed. During the government's survey period more than 2.7 million acres disappeared -
equaling about four football fields of rainforest per minute. There are also indications that
deforestation rates may be on the increase since the end of the reporting period.
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***Deforestation Answers***
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Fiset 7 (Nathalie Fiset, M.D., is an expert author at ezinearticles.com. “Benefits of Deforestation” March 2007.
http://ezinearticles.com/?Benefits-of-Deforestation&id=504455)
Whenever people talk about deforestation, usually the things that spring to mind are negative thoughts brought on mostly by media
hypes and environmentalist drives. People think about global warming, depletion of natural resources, and the casual extinction of
indigenous fauna and flora. Yet people don't seem to realize that there are actually quite a few benefits of deforestation.
One of the easiest benefits of deforestation to spot are the economic ones. Lumber products are one of the most staple
constructive materials in human society. Whether it's raw lumber used for making tables and houses, or paper and other
wood by-products, we simply cannot live without the use of lumber. Like steel and stone, wood is one of the most basic
natural resources, and unlike steel and stone, it is renewable simply by growing more trees. The only real trick to balancing it's
consumption is to grow more trees to replace the ones taken. On a similarly related note, keep in mind that a lot of jobs revolve
around the use of lumber. Wood cutters aside, there are those who work in processing plants to make
glue from wood sap, process pulp into paper, and others. This is another benefit of deforestation; it
opens more job opportunities for people who would otherwise be unemployed. These job opportunities are more than simply a
humanitarian concept; society at large would suffer if all of the people working in the wood industry were to
suddenly find themselves jobless. This benefit of deforestation not only covers the people who cut down
trees and process them, but also extends to the people who "clean up" after them. For every patch of forest
cut down, arable land becomes available for farmers, or can be used as an area to place urban living
sites like apartments, houses, and buildings. The number of people employed by such a construction project are many and
varied. Or, if the city/government mandates replanting trees to replace the lost ones, then jobs are also provided for those people who do
the seeding after a patch of forest is stripped. Thinking about it, the cleared areas are places which provide a lot of
potential for growth, and this is yet another benefit of deforestation. As stated above, arable land is
valuable, and the act of deforestation to clear a place for farm land provides a much needed additional
food source for man. More often than not, the soil in a forest is much richer than that of regular farm lands because of the wide
variety of life it supports. This new land area grants a much needed place to grow a food supply to deal with the planet's steadily
expanding population of humanity. Then, of course, there is the fact that these cleared areas may be razed for urban renewal. Given
our burgeoning population growth, additional living areas made on cleared forest land is another
benefit of deforestation. These places can be converted into more than just housing areas. Buildings which can house offices for
work, or factories to produce clothing and other essential items, or even research facilities for things like new medical or technological
advances can be placed in these deforested areas. Lastly, another benefit of deforestation to consider is the access it provides to other
natural resources that may lay within the forest's land area. Some places with heavy forests are home to iron ore, mineral, and even oil
deposits which can be used for man's needs. These natural resources would otherwise lay dormant and untapped unless people access
them. The act of deforestation may not be entirely necessary to get at these deposits sometimes, but coupled with the advantages given
above, the combination of opening up a new mine or oil well when taken with extra living spaces or farm lands for food makes a lot of
sense. So, given all of the benefits of deforestation outlined above, you can see that more often than not, the good
outweighs the bad. The planet's environment may indeed suffer from the effects of deforestation, but
that is due to irresponsible use of the resources and other benefits provided, not the deforestation itself.
As people living on the planet, our duty is not to "hold back" and stop cutting trees. It is to use what we glean from the Earth responsibly
and wisely for humanity and the planet's benefit.
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Andersen 97 (Lykke E. Andersen, Professor, Department of Economics University of Aarhus, Demmark. “A Cost-Benefit Analysis of
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon” Rio de Janeiro, January 1997 www.ipea.gov.br/pub/td/td0455.pdf)
This paper has attempted to collect the best available evidence on the total economic value of standing
Amazonian rain forest. Estimates were calculated for both a low discount rate of 2% and a higher discount rate of 6%. The low
discount rate is most compatible with the rate a global social planner would adopt. At this rate the total economic value of a standing rain
forest is estimated at roughly $l8,000/hectare (in 1990 US$). The value of a standing forest was compared with
estimares of the net present value of different agricultural land uses. It was shown that a sequence of
land uses provides the optimal development strategy. Loggers should first be allowed to extract the
commercially valuable timber from the virgin forest. Then smallscale farmers should be granted
property rights and be allowed to use the land as they find optimal. This is likely to be unsustainable slash-and-
burn cultivation of annual crops initially, but as the area develops and population densities and land prices increase, there will be a
natural intensification in the use of land and the area will eventually be covered with sustainable perennial crops. This sequence of land
uses yields an estimated net present agricultural value of roughly $24,000/hectare. With spill-over effects to the urban
sector the total net present value of agricultural land increases to about $l20,000/hectare. The potential
benefits of deforestation thus seem to exceed the costs at the current level of deforestation. However, these
two estimares of the costs and the benefits of deforestation only represent one point on the cost curve and one point on the benefit curve,
namely the points associated with approximately 10% deforestation. As the level of deforestation increases, the global costs of
deforestation will rise, and it will eventually pass the value of agricultural land. At that point, the international comunity has to provide
incentives to induce Brazil to preserve the remainder of the forest. The external benefits of a standing rain forest amounts to roughly
$9,000/hectare at the current level of deforestation. At the optimal level it will be much higher. Thus, international transfers in excess of
$9,000/hectare will be needed to secure that deforestation in the world largest remaining rain forest will not exceed the globally optimal
level.
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Bala et al. 7 (G. Bala, K. Caldeira, M. Wickett, T. J. Phillips, D. B. Lobell, C. Delire, and A. Mirin, “Combined climate and carbon-cycle
effects of large-scale deforestation” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1871823)
Atmospheric CO2 content is greater in the Global deforestation experiment by 381 ppmv because of both
the release of carbon stored in trees in the early 21st century and the loss of CO2 fertilization of
forested ecosystems seen in the Standard simulation (Fig. 1). Despite higher atmospheric CO2
concentrations, the global- and annual-mean temperature in the Global case is cooler by ≈0.3 K than the
Standard case. Thus, on a global-mean basis, the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are
overwhelmed by the cooling biophysical effects. Relative to the Standard case, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is
higher by 299, 110, and 5 ppmv in the Tropical, Temperate, and Boreal cases. The global-mean temperature differences relative to the
Standard case in year 2100 in the Tropical, Temperate, and Boreal experiments are +0.7 K, −0.04 K, and −0.8 K, respectively (Fig. 1),
implying that the combined carbon-cycle and biophysical effects from tropical, temperate, and boreal deforestation are, respectively, net
warming, near-zero temperature change, and net cooling. These latitude-band experiments thus suggest that projects in the tropics
promoting afforestation are likely to slow down global warming, but such projects would offer only little to no climate benefits when
implemented in temperate regions and would be counterproductive, from a climate-perspective, at higher latitudes. The linear sum of the
area-weighted global-mean temperature change over all of the latitude-band experiments is −0.1 K in the year 2100. This value is close
to the corresponding −0.3 K temperature change of the Global deforestation simulation, suggesting a near-linear behavior of the large-
scale climate system despite the many nonlinear processes represented by the INCCA model. The linear sum is slightly larger because,
in the latitude-band experiments, our dynamic vegetation model allows the forests to expand in the regions that are not deforested (23,
26), and forests have lower albedo and absorb more solar radiation than grasses. The presence of trees in the latitude-band deforestation
experiments and the consequent higher CO2 fertilization causes the linear sum of CO2 changes from the Tropical, Temperate, and
Boreal experiments to be lower than that of the Global case by 67 ppmv in year 2100. Because the linear sum of the temperature
response from latitude-band experiments is approximately equal to that of the Global case (Fig. 1), we focus our analysis on our global-
scale deforestation simulation for brevity. The removal of forests in the Global case results in an atmospheric CO2 concentration at year
2100 that is 381 ppmv greater than in the Standard simulation (1,113 vs. 732 ppmv; Fig. 1). In the Standard A2 scenario, 1,790 PgC
carbon is emitted to the atmosphere over the 21st century (Fig. 2). By year 2100, the terrestrial biosphere in the Global deforestation
experiment has 972 Pg less carbon than in the Standard case. Approximately 82% (799 PgC) of this carbon resides in the atmosphere,
with the oceans taking up the remaining 18% (173 PgC). The ocean uptake increases in the Global case (444 vs. 271 PgC in Standard)
because the higher atmospheric CO2 concentration drives an increased flux of carbon into the oceans.
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Bala et al. 7 (G. Bala, K. Caldeira, M. Wickett, T. J. Phillips, D. B. Lobell, C. Delire, and A. Mirin, “Combined climate and carbon-cycle
effects of large-scale deforestation” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1871823)
The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to
slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate.
However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud
cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed
with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-
dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-
scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle
effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and
evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly
beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only
marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for
climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 154
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Monga Bay News 5 (“Deforestation does not cause flooding says new study FAO/CIFOR news release”
http://news.mongabay.com/2005/1012-fao-cifor.html)
Deforestation and logging do not increase the risk of major floods according to a new report from the
UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Center for International Forestry Research
(CIFOR). The study, citing evidence showing that the frequency and extent of major floods has not
changed over the last century despite significant reductions in forest cover, challenges the conventional
belief that forest loss causes floods. Instead, FAO and CIFOR say that deforestation does have a role in small floods and
topsoil erosion by eliminating the buffering and soil anchoring effects of forests. Further, the report accuses Asian governments of using
deforestation as an excuse to deflect criticism over their poor handling of human settlement in areas unsuitable for habitation.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 155
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CIFOR 5 (Center for International Forestry Research Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations “Forests and floods:
Drowning in fiction or thriving on facts?” RAP Publication 2005/03 Forest Perspectives,
http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/ae929e/ae929e04.htm#bm04)
It is commonly believed that forests are necessary to regulate stream flow and reduce runoff, and to some extent this is true. But, in
reality, forests tend to be rather extravagant users of water, which is contradictory to earlier thinking (FAO 2003). Considerable
quantities of rainfall (up to 35 per cent) are commonly intercepted by the canopies of tropical forests and evaporated back into the
atmosphere without contributing to soil water reserves. Much of the water that does soak into the soil is used by the trees themselves.
This should put to rest the belief that extensive reforestation or afforestation will increase the low flows in the dry season (Hamilton and
Pearce 1987). Therefore, replacing forest cover with other land uses almost always results in increased runoff and stream flow. Runoff
and stream-flow patterns will gradually return to original levels if an area is left to revert back to forest. Converting forest to grasslands,
however, will normally result in a permanent increase in total water runoff. Contrary to popular belief, forests have only a
limited influence on major downstream flooding, especially large-scale events. It is correct that on a local scale
forests and forest soils are capable of reducing runoff, generally as the result of enhanced infiltration and storage capacities. But this
holds true only for small-scale rainfall events, which are not responsible for severe flooding in downstream areas. During a major
rainfall event (like those that result in massive flooding), especially after prolonged periods of preceding rainfall, the forest soil
becomes saturated and water no longer filters into the soil but instead runs off along the soil surface.
Studies in America (Hewlett and Helvey 1970), and South Africa (Hewlett and Bosch 1984) were amongst some of the first
to question the importance of the link between forest conversion and flooding. Studies in the Himalayas
indicate that the increase in infiltration capacity of forested lands over non-forested lands is
insufficient to influence major downstream flooding events (Gilmour et al. 1987; Hamilton 1987). Instead, the main
factors influencing major flooding given a large rainfall event, are: (i) the geomorphology of the area; and (ii) preceding rainfall
(Bruijnzeel 1990, 2004; Calder 2000; Hamilton with King 1983; Kattelmann 1987).
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CIFOR 4 Center for International Forestry Research Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “The great flood myth”
http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/Publications/Corporate/NewsOnline/NewsOnline36/flood.htm?WBCMODE=PresentationUnpublished
"Haiti's deforestation allows flood water to run unchecked," declared USA Today. Haiti's prime minister pointed the finger at poor
farmers for cutting down trees for fuel and to make charcoal. The Associated Press ran touching interviews with the elders of the flood-
ravaged Haitian town of Mapou about how they had been forced to fell trees to cook their food even though they knew it would
eventually bring about their own destruction. France's foreign minister promised aid to reforest the denuded hillsides. It was a
predictable response. Just about every time there is a major flood anywhere in the world, small farmers and loggers are held to account.
Floods in Bangladesh are blamed on forest clearing in the Himalayas. In the late 1990s, loggers took the rap for the thousands who died,
and the billions of dollars of damage done, during Hurricane Mitch in Central America, and for the floods along China's Yangtze river.
Indeed, the idea that loggers and small farmers help cause devastating floods is so ingrained inmost
people's minds that few would think to question it. But the idea is deeply flawed. There is not a shred
of scientific evidence to suggest that logging or deforestation play significant roles in massive floods.
And the myth is doing great damage to farmers who need forests to survive.
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AT – Deforestation - Exaggerated
There is little scientific information about the extent of deforestation
Rothbard and Rucker 97 (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, “The rainforest issue:
Myths and facts” CFACT Briefing Paper #102. http://www.cfact.org/site/view_article.asp?idCategory=5&idarticle=214)
Why these claims are wrong: While some advocates like to make grand, sweeping statements about rainforest
loss and put in big numbers that make it sound catastrophic, Roger Sedjo and Marion Clawson, writing for
Resources for the Future, dug into the available evidence and said, "Information about the tropical moist forests is
relatively scant. What information we do have comes from anecdotal evidence -- provided by isolated
investigations at single times and places -- than from systematic studies conducted over large areas and
lengths of time... A hard look at the available data supports the view that some regions are
experiencing rapid deforestation. However, the view that this is a pervasive phenomenon on a global
level is questionable." (Rational Readings, Julian Simon, p. 745) So what does available evidence show? And where do
environmentalists begin to get their numbers? Well U.S. News and World Report (12/13/93) explains that while the figure of 40 million
acres per year "has taken on a life of its own," it is being "cited and recited without reference to its origins. Yet almost half the estimated
total comes from a very rough estimate made by a Brazilian scientist who used sensors on a U.S. weather satellite to count the number of
fires burning in the Amazon at one time in 1988 [at the height of government-subsidized deforestation]. He estimated the size of each,
[guessing at the number of acres being cleared by each fire then assumed that 40 percent would never return to their forested condition,
and finally doubled this number to arrive at an estimated guess for global deforestation.] The resulting number was into the widely cited
report by the World Resources Institute...that helped fuel the alarm over vanishing tropical forests; [and] was cited by Gore and other
administration officials last spring in announcing support for the Biodiversity Treaty.
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AT – Biodiversity Loss
Rothbard and Rucker 97 (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, “The rainforest issue:
Myths and facts” CFACT Briefing Paper #102. http://www.cfact.org/site/view_article.asp?idCategory=5&idarticle=214)
Another important fact, according to Sedjo and Clawson, relates to a study done by the Food and Agriculture Organization and U.N.
Environmental Programme by J.P. Lanly. Lanly is Forest Coordinator for the UNEP/FAO Tropical Resources Assessment Project and his
study "indicates that [of the roughly 7 million acres worldwide per year] the undisturbed or "virgin"
broadleaved closed forests have a far lower rate of deforestation than the total, being only 0.27 percent
annually as compared with 2.06 percent annually for logged over secondary forest. This figure indicates that
deforestation pressure on the more pristine and generally more genetically diverse tropical forests is quite low."
Further, "these findings are in sharp contrast to the conventional view that the tropical forests are
`disappearing at an alarming rate' and suggest that concerns over the imminent loss of some of the
most important residences of the world's diverse genetic base, based on rates of tropical deforestation,
are probably grossly exaggerated." (Simon, Rational Readings, p.746) Sedjo and Clawson also said "While the local effects
of rapid deforestation may be severe, the evidence does not support the view that either the world or the tropics are experiencing rapid
aggregate deforestation. Furthermore, the evidence shows that current rates of deforestation are quite
modest in much of the world's virgin tropical forests, for example those of the Amazon; and therefore
they are probably in little danger of wholesale destruction in the foreseeable future." (Eco-Sanity, p.90)
Sandra Brown, professor of forestry at U. of Illinois and Ariel Lugo, project leader at the U.S. Forest Service's Institute of Tropical
Forestry in Puerto Rico also studied available data and "concluded the `dangerous' misinterpretation and exaggeration of the rate of
deforestation has become common." As for the amount of deforestation in relation to total forest area, Thomas Lovejoy, then of the
World Wildlife Fund, offered a low projection of 50% deforestation between 1980 and 2000 in Latin America and a high of 67%. The
source for this was a set of satellite photos taken in 1978 and reported in the Washington Post to show that "as much as one-tenth of the
Brazilian Amazon has been razed." But according to Fulbright scholar and ecologist Robert Buschbacher
working in Brazil, the Landsat photos "concluded that 1.55 percent of the Brazilian portion of the Amazon has
been deforested." "On the basis of this and other evidence, Buschbacher says, `Because of a relatively
low percentage of forest clearing and the remarkable capacity of the forest to recover its structure...the
threat of turning the Amazon into a wasteland is exaggerated.'
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AT – Biodiversity Loss
Numbers about species loss are exaggerated, actual extinctions remain low and don’t
threaten human survival
Rothbard and Rucker 97 (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, “The rainforest issue:
Myths and facts” CFACT Briefing Paper #102. http://www.cfact.org/site/view_article.asp?idCategory=5&idarticle=214)
Another real-world observation that casts doubt on the Wilson theory actually comes from an island, Puerto
Rico, where according to Lugo, human activity reduced the area of primary forest by 99%. "But because of
extensive use of coffee shade trees in the coffee region and secondary forests, forest cover was never less than 10 to 15%...[and] in an
analysis of bird fauna, [it was] concluded that seven bird species (four of them endemic) became extinct after
500 years of human pressure...and that exotic species enlarged the species pool. In the 1980's, more birds were
present on the island (97 species) than were present in pre-Columbian times (60 species)...Secondary forests in Puerto Rico have [also]
served as refugia for primary forest tree species as well." (Lugo, "Biodiversity," p.66) So what do real-world observations say about the
worldwide loss of species? Well in response to questions about species extinction, the World Conservation Union (IUCN) commissioned
a book in 1992 to look into the matter. According to Simon, all the authors are ecologists who express concern abut the
rate of extinction. Nevertheless, they all agree that the rate of known extinctions has been and continues to
be very low. They found, "60 birds and mammals are known to have become extinct between 1900 and
1950," "actual extinctions remain low...many species appear to have either an almost miraculous
capacity for survival, or a guardian angel watching over their destiny," and not "a single known animal
species...could be properly declared as extinct, in spite of the massive reduction in area and
fragmentation of their habitats in the past decades and centuries of intensive human activity." (Simon,
Scarcity or Abundance, pp. 200-202) So given all of this, why do environmentalists persist in using grandiose numbers to express their
concerns about species loss? Dr. Julian Simon notes that "biologists with whom I have discussed this material agree that the
numbers in question are most uncertain. But they say the numbers do not matter scientifically. The conclusion would be
the same, they say, if the numbers were different even by several orders of magnitude. If that is so, why mention any numbers at all? The
answer, quite clearly is that these numbers do matter in one important way; they have they power to frighten in a fashion that numbers
much smaller would not. The [Congressional Office of Technology Assessment] OTA 1986 document says: `Conveying the importance
of biological diversity will require a formulation of the issue in terms that are easily understandable and convincing.' These frightening
numbers meet that test. I can find no scientific justification for such use of numbers." Thus, the lack of any
evidence for mass extinctions causes no hesitation on the part of those environmentalists calling for
quick and draconian action.
Jays Net News 6 (NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON" Nuclear & Biological Weapons. http://www.jaysnet.com/666nuke.html)
In a thermonuclear bomb, the explosive process begins with the detonation of what is called the primary stage. This consists of
a relatively small quantity of conventional explosives, the detonation of which brings together enough fissionable uranium to create a
fission chain reaction, which in turn produces another explosion and a temperature of several million degrees. The force
and heat of this explosion are reflected back by a surrounding container of uranium and are channeled toward the secondary stage, made
up of tritium or other fusion fuel. The tremendous heat initiates fusion, and the resulting explosion of the secondary stage blows the
uranium container apart and causes it too to fission, thus contributing to the explosion and producing fallout (the deposition of
radioactive materials from the atmosphere) in the process. (A neutron bomb is a thermonuclear device in which the uranium container is
absent, thus producing much less blast but a lethal "enhanced radiation" of neutrons.) The entire series of explosions in a
thermonuclear bomb takes a fraction of a second to occur.A thermonuclear explosion produces blast,
light, heat, and varying amounts of fallout. The concussive force of the blast itself takes the form of a shock wave that
radiates from the point of the explosion at supersonic speeds and that can completely destroy any building within a radius of several
miles. The intense white light of the explosion can cause permanent blindness to people gazing at it from a distance of dozens of miles.
The explosion's intense light and heat set wood and other combustible materials afire at a range of
many miles, creating huge fires that may coalesce into a firestorm. The radioactive fallout contaminates air, water,
and soil and may continue years after the explosion; its distribution is virtually worldwide.Thermonuclear bombs can be hundreds or
even thousands of times more powerful than atomic bombs. The explosive yield of atomic bombs is measured in kilotons, each unit of
which equals the explosive force of 1,000 tons of TNT. The explosive power of hydrogen bombs, by contrast, is frequently expressed in
megatons, each unit of which equals the explosive force of 1,000,000 tons of TNT. Hydrogen bombs of more than 50 megatons have
been detonated, but the explosive power of the weapons mounted on strategic missiles usually ranges from 100 kilotons to 1.5 megatons.
Thermonuclear bombs can be made small enough (a few feet long) to fit in the warheads of intercontinental ballistic missiles; these
missiles can travel almost halfway across the globe in 20 or 25 minutes and have computerized guidance systems so accurate that they
can land within a few hundred yards of a designated target.Edward Teller and other American scientists developed the first hydrogen
bomb, which was tested at Enewetak atoll on Nov. 1, 1952. The U.S.S.R. first tested a hydrogen bomb on Aug. 12, 1953, followed by the
United Kingdom in May 1957, China (1967), and France (1968). During the late 1980s there were some 40,000 thermonuclear devices
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 161
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stored in the arsenals of the world's nuclear-armed nations. This number declined during the 1990s. The massive destructive threat of
these weapons has been a principal concern of the world's populace and of its statesmen since the 1950s.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 162
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Deforestation
The deforestation rate has been cut in half, represents a downward trend
Environmental News Service 5 (“Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon Cut by Half” http://www.ens-
newswire.com/ens/aug2005/2005-08-29-03.asp)
Over the last 11 months there has been a 50 percent drop in deforestation in the Amazon region,
according to satellite data released Friday by the Brazilian Environment Ministry. From August 2003 to July 2004, a total
of 18,724 square kilometers were logged in the region. From August 2004 to June 2005, the area
destroyed was 9,106 square kilometers, explained Environment Minister Marina Silva at a news conference in the capital.
The new figures are based on images from the Brazilian space agency INPE, the first results of an observation
project called STOP (Detection of Deforestation in Real Time), conducted with the support of the Institute for the Environment and
Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama) and the Environment Ministry. The purpose of STOP is to supply to the government and the
public with information about new areas of deforestation in Amazonia. "STOP underestimates the areas cleared, utilizing sensors of
smaller spatial resolution with high frequency of observation to reduce the limitations of cloud cover," explains Gilberto Câmara,
general coordinator of INPE's Land Observation division. Silva told reporters that two sensors aboard different satellites,
each monitoring deforestation, both show a downward deforestation trend. The MODIS, aboard Landsat, has
spatial resolution of 250 meters and covers Brazil every three to five days. The WFI, carried on the CBERS-2 satellite, presents a spatial
resolution of 260 meters and covers Brazil every five days.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 164
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Deforestation
Carnacchio 97 (C. J. Carnacchio is a staff writer for the Michigan Review. “The Sky Falls on Environmental Myths”
http://www.umich.edu/~mrev/archives/1997/10-8-97/environment.htm)
Myth #3: Deforestation and Clear-cutting: America's forests are not vanishing. There are 730 million acres of
forest land in the United States today. The growth on those acres is extremely dense, with a total of 230
billion trees (that's 900 trees for each American). When the pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock, 45 percent of
what is now the 48 contiguous United States was covered by mature forest land. Today, 32 percent is
still covered by forest, two thirds of the total before the pilgrims arrived. Contrary to environmentalist propaganda,
clear cutting does not leave behind a scarred and barren wasteland. It is usually done in a
checkerboard manner leaving behind large areas of forest. The areas where cutting occurs are then
replanted. Trees are a valuable commodity, and companies have an incentive not to overcut them. Today,
many companies are planting millions of trees on their own land and carefully harvesting them. Even the U.S. Forest Service admits
that, "Drastic as it may seem, clear cutting plays a legitimate and prominent role in scientific forestry. Properly done, it paves the way for
a new, unencumbered and hence vigorously growing forest." Clear cutting was even practiced by the Indians, who burned areas to
provide a cleared space for new growth, which was favored by animals they hunted such as elk and deer.
Rothbard and Rucker 97 (David Rothbard and Craig Rucker, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, “The rainforest issue:
Myths and facts” CFACT Briefing Paper #102. http://www.cfact.org/site/view_article.asp?idCategory=5&idarticle=214)
Why these claims are wrong: While some advocates like to make grand, sweeping statements about rainforest
loss and put in big numbers that make it sound catastrophic, Roger Sedjo and Marion Clawson, writing for
Resources for the Future, dug into the available evidence and said, "Information about the tropical moist forests is
relatively scant. What information we do have comes from anecdotal evidence -- provided by isolated
investigations at single times and places -- than from systematic studies conducted over large areas and
lengths of time... A hard look at the available data supports the view that some regions are
experiencing rapid deforestation. However, the view that this is a pervasive phenomenon on a global
level is questionable." (Rational Readings, Julian Simon, p. 745) So what does available evidence show? And where do
environmentalists begin to get their numbers? Well U.S. News and World Report (12/13/93) explains that while the figure of 40 million
acres per year "has taken on a life of its own," it is being "cited and recited without reference to its origins. Yet almost half the estimated
total comes from a very rough estimate made by a Brazilian scientist who used sensors on a U.S. weather satellite to count the number of
fires burning in the Amazon at one time in 1988 [at the height of government-subsidized deforestation]. He estimated the size of each,
[guessing at the number of acres being cleared by each fire then assumed that 40 percent would never return to their forested condition,
and finally doubled this number to arrive at an estimated guess for global deforestation.] The resulting number was into the widely cited
report by the World Resources Institute...that helped fuel the alarm over vanishing tropical forests; [and] was cited by Gore and other
administration officials last spring in announcing support for the Biodiversity Treaty.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 165
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Whelan 99 (Dr. Elizabeth M. President of the American Council on Science and Health http://www.acsh.org/
healthissues/newsID.408/healthissue_detail.asp)
Was there ever any real health problem at Love Canal? Yes, there was, in the sense that there was an
enormous amount of media-induced stress placed on residents who were terrified that they and their children
would become ill. But no there was never any documented evidence that exposure to chemicals at the
site caused death or disease. Indeed, in 1980, a panel of scientists appointed by Governor Hugh Carey
concluded that "inadequate" scientific studies might have exaggerated the seriousness of the health
problems caused by toxic waste. Dr. Lewis Thomas of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, chairman
of the panel, declared "as a result of this review, the panel has concluded that there has been no
demonstration of acute health effects linked to exposure to hazardous wastes at the Love Canal site.
The panel also concluded that the chronic effects of hazardous wastes exposure at Love Canal have neither
been established or ruled out yet." Nearly 20 years have passed since those blue-ribbon panel findings and
there is still no evidence of an increased incidence of disease or birth defects associated with exposure
to the Love Canal chemicals. Clearly, we must strive to manage the benefits of technology safely and
appropriately. We must also acknowledge that heavily industrialized areas of this country are no longer
pristine. But such acknowledgements do not justify exaggeration or sheer fabrication of health risks
that were never documented.
Milloy 1 (Steven J. Steven J. Milloy is: the founder and publisher of JunkScience.com and DemandDebate.com; a
portfolio manager of the Free Enterprise Action Fund ; and a columnist for FoxNews.com http://books.google.com
/books?id=q78ACwC9xYwC&pg=PA144&vq=hazardous+waste&dq=%22hazardous+waste%22,+junk+science%2
2&source=gbs_search_s&sig=ACfU3U1TCYz4OwbrZereNX6IIex-UckZgw)
Hazardous waste studies have not linked childhood cancer with hazardous waste sites. A recent study of
hazardous waste sites in North Carolina reported “No significantly elevated cancer incidences were
found at the county level . Two Zip Code areas had statistically significant elevations in cancer incidence (p
< .05) Only three of the cancer cases we mapped resided within a 1.6-km (1 mile) buffer zone of a National
Priorities list hazardous waste site. These three cases were not in the zip code areas that had increased
incidence rates.” Another recent study found no association between childhood cancer and 460
hazardous waste sites in the United Kingdom.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 167
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Milloy 1 (Steven J. Steven J. Milloy is: the founder and publisher of JunkScience.com and DemandDebate.com; a
portfolio manager of the Free Enterprise Action Fund ; and a columnist for FoxNews.com http://books.google.com
/books?id=q78ACwC9xYwC&pg=PA144&vq=hazardous+waste&dq=%22hazardous+waste%22,+junk+science%2
2&source=gbs_search_s&sig=ACfU3U1TCYz4OwbrZereNX6IIex-UckZgw)
To scare Americans into supporting a political agenda, former EPA administrator Carol Browner
utters alarmist half-truths such as “Half a million children live within a mile of a toxic waste site in the
United States”, and “Were very concerned about the one-quarter of Americans who live within four
miles of a superfund site.” But there is no evidence- none- that just living near a toxic waste site has
harmed any childs health.
Milloy 1 (Steven J. Steven J. Milloy is: the founder and publisher of JunkScience.com and DemandDebate.com; a
portfolio manager of the Free Enterprise Action Fund ; and a columnist for FoxNews.com http://books.google.com
/books?id=q78ACwC9xYwC&pg=PA144&vq=hazardous+waste&dq=%22hazardous+waste%22,+junk+science%2
2&source=gbs_search_s&sig=ACfU3U1TCYz4OwbrZereNX6IIex-UckZgw)
By early 1983, though, the EPA changed its tune. The agency was reeling from a major scandal involving
its toxic waste cleanup program. Looking to restore the agencies reputation, EPA staff recommended
the very public banning of a chemical. Alar was targeted. But the available data wouldn’t allow the
chemical to go quietly. Some EPA staff determined the alleged health effects from Alar were well within
the range of safety. A panel of outside scientific advisors agreed with those EPA staff. They rejected the
proposed ban. The agency repealed the proposed ban in January 1986, only to have activists pick up the ball.
Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 168
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Morrone and Lohner 2 (pg. 83 Michele Ph.D., R.S. Director, Environmental Studies. College of Arts and Sciences · Voinovich School of Leadership and Public
http://books.google.com/books?id=JjgbVjyzsfAC&dq=%22
Affairs, Timothy W. senior environmental specialist with American Electric Power
hazardous +waste%22,+junk+ science%22&pg=PP1&ots=NRcljDuINn&source=citation&sig=0ENHBG
XVV_PVdRsvbAHYGavPXSo&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=11&ct=result#PPA72,M1)
Similar studies have been done by independent organizations fro individual power plants. In an analysis of
the emissions of an eastern utility company power plant that burns almost 7 million tons of eastern coal
per year. Dr. Gray found very low levels of risk associated with the emissions, non-cancer risks were
below the acceptable RFC, and the cancer risks were below the 1 in a million level. In a similar analysis
of ten Midwestern power plants, it was found that the cancer risk ranged between 0.06 and 0.5 in 1
million, well below the level the EPA considers negligible. All ten plants release chemicals that have the
potential to cause noncancer health effects if exposure is high enough. However, the analysis found that the
hazard index was much less than one, indicating that exposure was much lower than the air concentration
considered “safe”.
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***Econ Tools***
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US economy resilient
Kevin L. Kliesen, Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 2006 (“Despite Setbacks, the U.S.
Economy Steams Forward”, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3678/is_200601/ai_n17170028)
Through it all, the economy has exhibited extraordinary resilience, experiencing only a relatively minor
recession in 2001 and only a moderate recovery over the next year or so. But since mid-2003, real GDP has
increased at a little more than a 4 percent annual rate. This rate is about one percentage point higher than the
Congressional Budget Office's estimate of potential real GDP growth but a bit lower than other estimates.
With actual growth exceeding potential growth, the unemployment rate has fallen to 5 percent (as of
November 2005) and the manufacturing capacity utilization rate in October rose to its highest level in five
years. The U.S. economy's resilience reflects two key developments. First, growth of labor productivity
(output per hour in the nonfarm business sector) remains historically elevated. Over the past five years, labor
productivity has increased at a brisk 3.4 percent annual rate, far above the 50-year average growth of 2.2
percent. second, financial markets and the business community are confident that the Federal Reserve
will keep inflation low and stable. This credibility not only reduces risk premiums that are embedded in
interest rates, but it enables the Fed to offset potentially damaging economic disturbances without the
markets calling into question its inflation-fighting bona fides. As long as long-term inflation expectations
remain low and stable and labor productivity growth stays strong, the economy should continue to grow at
or slightly above its estimated potential rate of growth in 2006. Economic activity in 2006 should also
receive a boost from the rebuilding efforts in the Gulf Coast and, hopefully, from the absence of further large
increases in crude oil and natural gas prices. The rebuilding and relative stability in energy prices would help
boost business investment and help produce a more moderate headline inflation rate in 2006. The end result
would be an improvement in household purchasing power. With this outcome, the economy in 2006 should
add jobs at a rate of about 150,00 to 175,000 per month.
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Inflation low, but growth would increase inflation, crushing global economic growth
Daily Times 6-27-07 [“World growth stronger, inflation poses risk,”
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2007%5C06%5C27%5Cstory_27-6-2007_pg5_29]
FRANKFURT: The world economy is powering ahead at a faster pace than expected two months ago,
building up global inflationary pressures, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund said
on Tuesday. Inflationary dangers pose the greatest risk to the rosy world outlook. But so far rapid gains
in commodity prices, now spreading from metals and energy to food and agricultural products, have not
pushed up consumer prices broadly, Simon Johnson said at a news briefing. “There are real inflationary
pressures when you run a world economy this fast,” Johnson said at a briefing where he forecast global
growth of around 5 percent this year. The United States, Japan and Europe are no longer benefiting from
falling prices for imported goods, which adds to inflationary dangers associated with fast growth, he
said. Despite these pressures, Johnson said: “We see very little inflation feeding through.”
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