Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
***Uniqueness***
SDI 2008 5
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( ) Electoral indicators
Montopoli 6/25/08 [BRIAN political correspondent, CBS NEWS
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/06/25/politics/horserace/entry4207063.shtml]
Does Barack Obama already have the presidency locked up? For Democrats, it might be tempting to
think so. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out yesterday shows Obama with a 12 point edge – an
advantage that stretches to 15 points when Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are included. The poll also suggests
that more voters are identifying as Democrats than Republicans, and that John McCain is suffering
from a “passion gap” – while just 58 percent of conservatives said they would vote for McCain, 79
percent of liberals vowed to vote for Obama. In addition, almost every metric in the race favors the
Democratic candidate – among them the candidate’s fundraising ability, trends in party identification,
and disenchantment with the current (Republican) president. McCain seems to realize that he faces an
uphill battle: At a fundraiser yesterday, the presumptive GOP nominee said, “We are behind, we are the
underdog. That’s what I like to be.”
SDI 2008 6
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( ) Former Clinton supporters especially women will vote for the democrat, Obama, not
McCain, the Republican; that’s the Hogart 7/1 card.
SDI 2008 8
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( ) the card doesn’t actually say that Obama will lose, it says it will give McCain an
opportunity to insult him
SDI 2008 11
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( ) Prefer our evidence—There is no way that early polls could have been conclusive in ’06
( ) This is a straw person argument-the same article also talks about how Obama is
winning and will win the election—the entire argument is a wash—throw this out and
prefer the rest of our Uniqueness evidence
SDI 2008 12
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***Link***
SDI 2008 14
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( ) Voters won’t perceive the spending aspect of the plan, it will be spun as helping US-
Sino relations
Collier, Chronicle Staff Writer, 7/5/2007 [Robert, "U.S. is pressured to help China curb emissions," lexis]
Ironically, the best way of winning congressional support for energy cooperation with China might be
to cast it as a solution for the bilateral tension, said Israel, who will soon introduce legislation to create a
$20 million program to fund joint research and development with Chinese universities on low-emissions coal
generation, as well as solar and wind energy.
"As long as many of my colleagues don't really believe in global warming, they won't care that China
is the No. 1 emitter," Israel said. "But if they believe that the United States is less secure because of
China's voracious appetite for energy, they will be more receptive to ways to reduce that appetite."
( ) Their Coiler 7 doesn’t say anything about voters changing their votes due to spending
money.
( ) Doesn’t matter what congress thinks about the plan, the voters like it
FERSHEE, asst prof of law @ University of North Dakota School of Law, 2008 [Joshua P., “Changing
Resources, Changing Market: The Impact of a National Renewable Portfolio Standard on the U.S. Energy
Industry”, 29 Energy L.J. 49, lexis/ttate]
Public opinion polls, growing support from utilities, and continually increasing state RPS
legislation indicate that support for a renewable energy mandate is stronger than ever. However,
opposition remains strong. Rightly or wrongly, the majority of Americans appear ready to take a
calculated risk to find out if renewable energy can fulfill its promise. The question remains: Is
Congress?
( ) Unique link turn – climate initiatives are uniquly polarizing – rps differs - supported by
both sides of the aisle
Manka, 2007, public relations professional
[Maria Surma, “Congress to Pass Federal Renewable Energy Standard?”, Green Options, February 28, 2007,
http://mariasurmamanka.greenoptions.com/2007/02/28/congress-to-pass-federal-renewable-energy-standard/,
Zhang]
The Dow Jones Newswire reports that Congress is “likely” to pass a renewable energy standard – in this instance
called a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) – in the next several months. Renewable energy requirements have
stronger support on both sides of the aisle as opposed to the more controversial limits on global warming emissions.
Prudential Equity Group analyst James Lucier went so far as to say, “An RPS can almost certainly be done this
year… It's one of the few things investors can count on in this Congress."
SDI 2008 17
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Their cards indicate a specific time in which there was a fight. This has absolutely no
impact on the upcoming election.
Their Coile card never once talks about RPS, just a generic policy that the republicans
opposed – no risk of a link turn.
GOP senators don’t effect the election, voters effect the election.
Their evidence is terrible – doesn’t talk about voter perception, just legislators.
Voters are going to be excited about ending oil dependency, they will not focus on changing
their vote due to a flip flop on one issue – that’s 1NC Young 6/24/08
Plan is net popular – Congress supports combining tax credits with mandates – Popular
with the public – view as job creation and relief from oil
Podesta et. al 05. (John, Chief of Staff under President Clinton and Visiting Prof of Law at Georgetown U,
“Taking Action on Oil Savings”, Center for American Progress, September 13,
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2005/09/b1033079.html)
In the face of record-breaking oil company profits, progressives can offer decisive action and visionary leadership –
to provide immediate relief to working Americans, reduce long-term structural demand for oil, create real
transportation choice, and retool the auto industry for jobs in the markets of the future. Public opinion is with us.
Voters are looking for real answers and concrete action to break our dependence on oil.
Their Barnow 2 card is terrible – it says it might be perceived as a tax, but it never once
says that the people will oppose it
Congressman have realized the negative impacts of Ethanol and will protect their
constituents
Lieberman 4/2/08 Senior Policy Analyst, Energy and Environment, Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic
Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation [Ben, Time for Second Thoughts on the Ethanol Mandate,
http://www.heritage.org/Research/energyandenvironment/wm1879.cfm]
The anger over high gasoline prices was the main impetus behind the 2005 and 2007 energy bills and their successively higher ethanol mandates.
The public may have mistakenly assumed that ethanol is cheaper than gasoline, but reality is beginning to
hit home. When everything is taken into account, including the lower fuel economy from ethanol-blended fuel, the mandate
is adding to the cost of driving—which is precisely why ethanol had to be mandated in the first place. The AAA calculates that ethanol has
recently cost 20 to 30 cents per gallon more than regular gasoline.[1] And that does not take into account the heavy taxpayer subsidies, including
a 51-cent-per-gallon tax credit, without which ethanol would be even costlier. Proponents insist that economies of scale will kick in and make
ethanol more affordable as the mandated levels are ratcheted up, but there is no sign of that actually happening. The opposite is more likely. For
example, ethanol costs more to transport than gasoline, and the expanding mandates necessitate usage well outside of its
Midwestern home base. Ethanol is also more expensive to use in the summer: It contributes to smog and in several
markets can be used only with a costlier base blend that compensates for this shortcoming; but this blend must be used year-round. Over the
longer term, the law requires that corn alternatives like cellulosic ethanol be used as well. Cellulosic ethanol—made from certain grasses, wood,
or crop waste—is currently far more expensive than even corn ethanol. It is only a matter of time before the public realizes
that the mandate is contributing to their pain at the pump. The media are belatedly picking up on this point.
Eventually, Members of Congress—at least those outside of the 10 or so Midwestern states where much of the corn and ethanol
production is concentrated—will realize that the mandate is a lousy deal for their constituents, and they may want
to do something about it.
SDI 2008 24
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( ) Even if tradable permits are normally unpopular, the inclusion of grandfathering build
political support
Center for Clean Air Policy 99 - ( p.21 of TP Shared Negative Addendum)
SDI 2008 25
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( ) Plan is popular with Evangelicals – Nothstine 6/18 (p.6 of TP Shared Negative Addendum)
( ) Evangelicals key to the election – there’s still time but McCain must rev them up
Dallas Morning News, 7/6/08
It's a risky move, though, as religious conservatives have been instrumental to Republican victories for a
generation. Some social conservatives warn that the appeal to moderate swing voters will jeopardize
already lukewarm support from evangelicals.
"McCain is in grave danger right now of causing a good number of potential supporters to just stay home in
resignation," said East Texas evangelist Rick Scarborough.
Phil Burress of the Ohio Christian Alliance, who met privately with Mr. McCain a week ago in Cincinnati, said evangelical leaders
urged him to pick a social-conservative running mate and to talk more openly about issues they care about, especially abortion and gay
marriage.
"We need something from Senator McCain to help rev up our people," Mr. Burress said. "Our people are
flat. They don't seem interested."
The McCain campaign says it is committed to making evangelicals part of a winning coalition.
In recent weeks, it has created nine-member Christian-outreach teams in 14 battleground states and arranged the visit with Mr. Graham. It is scheduling
private meetings with local evangelical leaders, beginning with the session in Ohio.
In addition, the campaign has a 1,000-person e-mail list of social conservative and national leaders with influence in local communities.
Marlys Popma, who heads the McCain campaign's religious-outreach effort, said that while the Arizona senator is not as openly expressive of his faith as
Mr. Bush is, his record on abortion, same-sex marriage, home schooling and the appointment of judges is a strong selling point to social conservatives.
"The more they see the good stuff about John McCain and then compare him to Barack Obama, we're not
going to have a problem getting excitement out of our base," she said.
Ms. Popma dismissed Mr. Obama's active appeal to moderate evangelicals, which the Illinois Democrat highlighted last week on a tour touting values
such as patriotism, faith and service.
"Barack Obama can do everything he wants to meet with evangelical leaders. I have to believe that most of that is a shell game," she said. "He can do
everything he wants, but if they don't agree with him on issues, he's going to have a hard time selling himself."
Shifting from GOP
In 2004, 62 percent of white evangelicals said they leaned Republican, and almost 80 percent voted for Mr. Bush.
But a recent national survey by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life indicates a shift away from the GOP. According to the survey, half of
evangelicals now align themselves with Republicans.
Given that change, Ms. Simmons said, "we have to do a far better job appealing to independents and Democratic voters while still maintaining that base."
Mr. McCain has sought to mend fences damaged in the 2000 presidential campaign, in which he labeled some religious leaders "agents of intolerance."
But campaign stumbles have hampered efforts to corral evangelicals. Mr. McCain pursued the endorsement of San Antonio megachurch pastor John
Hagee, only to reject it - and that of influential Ohio pastor Rod Parsley - in a political dustup over remarks they'd made about Catholics and Muslims.
One supporter close to Mr. McCain said the Arizona Republican doesn't understand evangelicals the way Mr. Bush did.
"They know he's not part of them," the supporter said. "It's like he's observing them as if they are Martians."
Doug Wead, who headed Christian outreach efforts for former President George Bush in 1988, said the McCain campaign has bungled its rapprochement
with the religious right.
"Normally, you have to have it done two years in advance," he said. For the elder Mr. Bush's campaign, "we met with all the leadership by 1986. It was in
the bag."
Mr. Wead said the
problem is not that evangelicals will flock to Mr. Obama but that they won't work actively for
Mr. McCain in churches and communities.
"It's a priceless infrastructure that is built in with volunteers and paid staff," he said. "Some of the TV
ministries have mailing lists the size of the NRA, and to take them out, to have them unused is just deadly
for the Republican Party in three areas: voter registration, voter education and voter turnout."
Others say there is still time. But they warn that softening the appeal to religiously conservative voters to
gain moderate support is not a winning strategy.
"The fact is, McCain's moderates can't beat Obama's adoring groupies," said Deal Hudson, a conservative
Catholic leader and McCain supporter.
Voting against Obama
Even Mr. McCain's pitch to evangelicals goes beyond the religious right and to moderates whose faith-
based agenda also includes climate change, immigration, AIDS and poverty.
That's the group that Mr. Obama was targeting with a faith-based message Tuesday in Ohio, home of a massive voter turnout effort among evangelicals
by the Bush campaign four years ago.
McCain advisers believe religious-right voters will come around in November. The campaign's internal polls suggest that the Arizona Republican has a 60
percent margin of support among evangelicals over Mr. Obama. But diminished turnout in the group, particularly in close states,
could be fatal to Mr. McCain.
SDI 2008 26
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2NC Link Wall – Tradeable Permits – AT: Energy Prices Link Turn
Their Nothstine 6/18 card never once gives a warrant to why public would not like the plan,
just that congress doesn’t want to raise prices
Prefer our Young 6/24 Link evidence saying that voters will actually perceive alternate
energy as an end to oil dependence and will therefore like it.
Waste storage facility won’t be built until WAY AFTER the election only the immediate
action will be perceive – it is massively popular with public – new polls prove
Marshall E. Purnell President, American Institute of Architects, CQ Testimony, 6/11/08
The American public believes the time is now to reduce energy usage and reduce the impacts of climate change.
The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners recently conducted a nationwide poll of voters and found that
74 percent of those polled agreed that "the government should take the lead in promoting real estate
development that conserves our natural resources." In addition, 71 percent of voters agreed that "the
government should immediately put into effect new energy policies that drastically reduce greenhouse gas
emissions." The American public supports conserving our precious resources, and believes that it is in the best
interests of our nation and the world to reduce our reliance on fossil fuel produced energy and move towards a
sustainable future. Reducing energy use in our nation's homes would be a major step towards that goal.
( ) Green wire 07 - Does not function as a link turn because it doesn’t say republicans care
either way about the global warming issue, only that “republicans lack attention to global
warming” and the card doesn’t imply this will lead to a lose in the elections
( ) The un-underlined section of the card specifies GOP base against the Carbon Tax not
alternative energy as a whole
( ) Turn - Alternate energy incentives cause GOP win co-opts criticism, steals a key issue
and inaction hurts incumbent party
Staunton, 6/24/08 (Dennis, Irish Times EU Correspondent, lexis)
WASHINGTON - With consumers fuming over the high cost of gasoline, Republicans and Democrats each want to
prove they alone offer the path to lower pump prices.
Republicans argue that drilling in coastal waters, Alaska and the Rocky Mountain West will boost oil supplies.
Democrats counter that alternative-energy development will free consumers from fossil-fuel captivity.
The problem, energy analysts say, is that neither solution will cut prices right now. Even over the long term, only a
marriage of the two approaches will work.
And neither party will agree to a wedding in an election year with the Oval Office at stake.
"The parties have a lot of incentive not to solve the problem and blame the other side," said Julian Zelizer, political-
science professor at Princeton University and author of several books on Congress. "Unhappy voters are the voters
people think can be swayed."
In the last month, Democratic Reps. Mark Udall of Eldorado Springs and Ed Perlmutter of Golden and Republican
Rep. Marilyn Musgrave of Fort Morgan have held news conferences at gas stations.
Lawmakers know they must offer fixes, with pollsters for both sides saying voters list fuel costs as a top concern.
There are no clear-cut solutions, however.
High gas prices have started to prompt less driving, but they're still too low to force rapid change. Oil would need to
hit $150 to $200 a barrel and stay there before private investment moves heavily into alternative fuels and
transportation, said John Kilduff, energy analyst at MF Global in New York.
Repealing Environmental Protection Agency limits on the sulfur content in diesel fuel would increase fuel supplies,
said Philip Verleger, an Aspen-based energy economist. But that's politically difficult.
Voters want anything that might work.
In a Zogby International poll this month asking what government actions people favored to lower fuel costs, 60
percent backed encouraging domestic drilling. Almost as many, 59 percent, supported cutting demand by boosting
fuel-efficiency standards, and 54 percent endorsed the use of alternative fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel.
The survey did not ask people to pick one option over another. Political advisers are coaching Republicans to talk
about more drilling and renewable energy. Democratic strategists suggest giving solutions that include cracking
down on oil speculators and pushing gas alternatives. They also advise blaming President Bush.
Playing both ends against middle
Presidential candidates are aiming for pleasing the political middle, analysts said.
"There is a choice that is before folks," said Hari Sevugan, a spokesman in Democrat Barack Obama's presidential
campaign. "Do we want leadership that's been tied to the folks making money from (high gas prices), or do we want
leadership that's fighting for us on this?"
SDI 2008 31
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( ) Extend the Cillizia 08 and their own Perce 08 evidence, Both cards Claim Independents
are Key to winning the critical Swing states of Michigan, Colorado, Wisconsin, and
Minnesota. Even If they win Envrionmental issues are not important to the average voter,
we control the Link debate because Independents will decide the electoral college
( ) Energy independence and fossil fuel emissions are the key election issues
Belli, Managing Editor of E 2008 (Brita, E: the Environmental Magazine Vol. 19, Iss. 2 proquest)
And the momentum, fanned in large part by college students, is carrying global warming from the sleeper issue it
was in the 2006 midterm elections to a defining campaign talking point. In May, energy independence and global
warming trailed only health care as America's most important domestic challenge, according to Democratic pollster
Stan Greenberg. And by last October, the only issue appearing more than global warming in campaign ads was the
Iraq war.
( ) Extend our Young 6/24 evidence that say that energy is the key issue with 51% voters
because people want to break their addiction to oil especially now .
***Impact***
SDI 2008 35
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( ) Extend 1NC Watkins ‘7 saying LOST is key to solve for leadership, power projection,
proliferation, terrorism, and economy because it helps the US pursue it’s most important
foreign policy objectives abroad including regulations of trade and shipping routes.
SDI 2008 36
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( ) US Ratification Key to Economy – eez, continental shelf, telecomm and seabed mining-
prefer our evidence because it is more comparative and points out how the advantages
outweigh the disadvantages of LOST
Webb, 9/27/07 (Jim, Senator, FNS)
Our economic interests are advanced in numerous ways, including by codifying our right to an exclusive
economic zone out to 200 nautical miles, in which the United States has sovereign control over the resources
-- whether living or nonliving; by providing the means for international recognition of our sizeable
continental shelf, particularly off the coast of Alaska where we can export mineral resources; by setting clear
rules for laying of undersea cables, which are an essential component of the telecommunications
infrastructure; by establishing an international framework for deep seabed mining in areas outside of national
jurisdictions, which we have long expected would be subject to international regulations.
( ) Increased family planning assistance can secure stable population size—Its not too late
to solve
Richard Cincotta et al, Senior Research Associate, Population Action International, 2003, The Security
Demographic, p. 40
Support for international family planning efforts has waned, however, in recent years—and at an
inopportune time.48The need for more and better quality reproductive health care, contracep- tives and
counseling is growing. Nearly 1.1 billion young people aged 15 to 19 are entering their re- productive years,
most of them unaware of the risks and responsibilities of sex and reproduction. Three million people die each
year from aids. And still, around 515,000 women perish annually from largely preventable pregnancy-related
causes, including about 70,000 deaths from unsafe abor- tions.49 Can the world change course? According to
demographers, it already has. Growth of global pop- ulation is decelerating more dramatically than was
anticipated even in the mid-1990s. The United Nations Population Division, the most widely consulted
demographic accountant on these matters, has set its 2002 medium variant projection—the one the division
deems most predictive—at 7.9 bil- lion people in 2025. That’s about 1.5 billion more people than today. But
it is also nearly 600 mil- lion fewerthan the same UN demographers had projected for 2025 just a decade
earlier.50Yet, the growth rate of population would be slower still if not for the fact that an estimated 38
percent of all pregnancies worldwide—some 80 million annually—are either unintended at the time or
unwanted at any time.51 The global demographic transition is still far from complete. While one-third of
the world’s countries have made their way fully through the transition, more than a third remains in
the early and middle phases. The future could see a continuation of today’s impressive declines in
fertility and childhood mortality, and a reversal in the hiv/aidspandemic—but only if policymakers support
and fund the policies and programs that make such change possible. If the relationships between the
demographic transition and conflict seen in the post-Cold War years hold in the coming decades, decisions
made today that affect funding that facilitates this momentous transition could have an enormous
influence, not only on demographic prospects, but also on the future of global security.
SDI 2008 40
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( ) Their Strobel 08 card merely states that he will call for sanctions as part of his solution
and it even states that he was unsatisfied with past overtures toward Iran. No where in the
card does it state that McCain will take the same actions as Obama.
( ) Their Slate Magazine 08 evidence that says McCain is not calling for military action is
terrible. It states that he is still keeping all his options on the table and refuses to consider
direct talks
( ) Their Hayes 08 card is terrible all it says is that McCain’s position is to “basically”
engage in some type of diplomacy
( ) Their O’Donnell card concedes that McCain is against peaceful visitations and that he
is concerned that if he does diplomacy it will make the US and Iran seem like equals.
They say that McCain will use diplomacy but McCain advocates diplomacy backed with
the willingness to use American force
Ted Van Dyk, Staff writer of Crosscut. 7/9/08 Campaign strategy session
http://www.crosscut.com/politics-government/15695/Campaign+strategy+session/
On foreign policy issues, Obama reflects his party's greater emphasis on multilateralism, international
institutions, and identification with Third World problems, as well as its shunning of military options in
general. McCain is a greater advocate of assertiveness on behalf of American interests and of
diplomacy backed, in the end, with a willingness to use American force.
Magnitude – Nuke war means everyone is either dead or is at a huge risk for cancer –
eventually everyone will be dead. Compared to unlikely advantages, our impact is bigger
because everyone will be affected.
Timeframe – overpopulation is already occurring so WMD conflict can come literally any
day now. Their advantages have to go through multiple steps to lower emissions and then
change energy policies – it will take multiple years.
Probability – every scientist with a brain realizes the human population is out of control
and the chance of fighting over resources is 100% because it’s human instinct. Their
advantages are extremely improbable due to the terminal defense.
Disad turns case: nuke war means dust in the air – exacerbates global warming. Nuke war
will kill the economy because key infrastructure will be destroyed. Plus, oil dependency will
be exacerbated because the middle east will be our enemies.