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Almost all innovation in the design of motor vehicles stems from developments in electronics. This Hype Cycle identifies key technologies that will affect future automotive electronic applications and examines the issues facing the automotive industry.
2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 4 What You Need to Know ...................................................................................................... 4 The Hype Cycle .................................................................................................................... 4 The Priority Matrix ................................................................................................................ 6 On the Rise........................................................................................................................... 6 Hydrogen Fuel (Internal Combustion Engines) ....................................................... 6 Autonomous Vehicle................................................................................................ 7 At the Peak ........................................................................................................................... 8 Autosar .................................................................................................................... 8 Hydrogen (Fuel Cell) ............................................................................................... 8 Lane Departure Warning ......................................................................................... 9 802.11b/g................................................................................................................. 9 802.11p (DSRC) .................................................................................................... 10 Sliding Into the Trough ....................................................................................................... 10 Biometric Ignition ................................................................................................... 10 Night Vision Enhancement Systems ..................................................................... 11 Head-Up Displays.................................................................................................. 11 Integrated Starter Alternator Damper .................................................................... 12 42-Volt Net............................................................................................................. 12 Local Interconnect Network ................................................................................... 13 Safe-by-Wire Plus.................................................................................................. 13 Active Steering ...................................................................................................... 14 Haptics................................................................................................................... 15 FlexRay.................................................................................................................. 15 Removable Solid-State Storage ............................................................................ 16 Adaptive Cruise Control......................................................................................... 16 Brake-by-Wire........................................................................................................ 17 CMOS Image Sensors........................................................................................... 17 Radar Sensors....................................................................................................... 18 Remote Diagnostics .............................................................................................. 19 Rigid Disk Drives ................................................................................................... 19 Climbing the Slope ............................................................................................................. 20 Hybrid Electric Vehicles......................................................................................... 20 Portable Navigation Devices ................................................................................. 20 Bluetooth Automotive........................................................................................ 21 GPS/Telematics..................................................................................................... 21 Ultrasonic Parking Sensors ................................................................................... 22 Media Oriented Systems Transport....................................................................... 23 Digital Radio .......................................................................................................... 23 ESP/ESC ............................................................................................................... 24 Entering the Plateau ........................................................................................................... 24 CAN/J1850 ............................................................................................................ 24 Appendixes ......................................................................................................................... 26 Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels .................................... 28 Recommended Reading.................................................................................................................. 29
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases ........................................................................................................... 28 Table 2. Benefit Ratings .................................................................................................................. 28 Table 3. Maturity Levels .................................................................................................................. 29
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics, 2008 .................................................................... 5 Figure 2. Priority Matrix for Automotive Electronics, 2008 ................................................................ 6 Figure 3. Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics, 2007 .................................................................. 26
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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ANALYSIS
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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visibility
Lane Departure Warning Hydrogen (Fuel Cell) Autosar 802.11b/g 802.11p (DSRC) Biometric Ignition
Night Vision Enhancement Systems Head-Up Displays Integrated Starter Alternator Damper Safe-by-Wire Plus Active Steering Haptics ESP/ESC Digital Radio CAN/J1850
42-Volt Net Local Interconnect Network FlexRay Removable Solid-State Storage Adaptive Cruise Control
Brake-by-Wire
Media Oriented Systems Transport Ultrasonic Parking Sensors GPS/Telematics Bluetooth Automotive Portable Navigation Devices Hybrid Electric Vehicles Rigid Disk Drives Remote Diagnostics Radar Sensors CMOS Image Sensors As of July 2008
Technology Trigger
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
time
Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years
Source: Gartner (July 2008)
2 to 5 years
5 to 10 years
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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benefit
5 to 10 years
802.11p (DSRC) Active Steering Head-Up Displays Radar Sensors
transformational
GPS/Telematics
high
Brake-by-Wire Digital Radio ESP/ESC Haptics Integrated Starter Alternator Damper Night Vision Enhancement Systems
moderate
802.11b/g Bluetooth Automotive Media Oriented Systems Transport Removable Solid-State Storage
low
As of July 2008
On the Rise
Hydrogen Fuel (Internal Combustion Engines)
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Auto manufacturers have been developing liquid hydrogen fuel from water using solar power for internal combustion engines. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The quest for alternative, clean fuels is relentless as shortages of fossil fuels loom. Fuel cell technology is being developed, but liquid hydrogen is also being explored as a replacement fuel for internal combustion engines, which will reduce air
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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pollution and will also be renewable. However, compared with petrol engines, the costs of current hydrogen solutions remain prohibitive. User Advice: The manufacture, storage and delivery of hydrogen fuel as a mainstream fuel alternative is still many years away because the technology to make the supply chain viable remains a challenge for the industry. Business Impact: Hydrogen fuel offers a risk-averse and cost-effective solution to alternative fuel technology, without reinventing the entire powertrain system in motor vehicles, as has been proposed for electric or hybrid-fuel-cell vehicles. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: BMW; Ford; General Motors; Hydrogen Car Company; Mercedes-Benz Recommended Reading: "Hybrid Electric Vehicles Are a Step Toward 'Greener' Cars"
Autonomous Vehicle
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: An autonomous vehicle is one that can drive itself from a starting point to a predetermined destination in "autopilot" mode using adaptive cruise control, active steering (steer-by-wire), an anti-lock braking system (brake by wire) and GPS navigation technology. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Collision avoidance systems (including adaptive cruise control), electronic throttle, active steering and brake-by-wire technologies promise to deliver a car that can use its navigation and lane-keeping support systems to drive itself from a starting point to a destination without colliding with other road users. The deployment of autonomous vehicles is being developed as a safety application. The two most recent U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Grand Challenges, held during 2H05 and 2H07, demonstrated the viability of this technology in the desert. In the summer of 2008, another DARPA Grand Challenge will bring a pilot project to U.S. highways. User Advice: The development of autonomous vehicles largely depends on sensor technologies. Many types of sensor will be deployed in the most effective autonomous vehicles. Sensor data needs high-speed data buses and very high-performance compute processors to provide realtime route guidance, navigation and obstacle detection. Business Impact: Car manufacturers are developing autopilot technology as a safety system for drivers. It is being presented as a driver-assistance technology, rather than as an autopilot system that will take over the driver's role. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: BMW; General Motors; Mercedes-Benz; Toyota; Volkswagen; Volvo Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Active Safety Electronics Will Make Cars Smarter and Safer"
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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At the Peak
Autosar
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Autosar automotive open system architecture is the name of a joint initiative by automotive OEMs, suppliers and tool developers to develop an open, standardized architecture for automotive software and electrical hardware. Specifically, the aim is to provide basic infrastructure for developing software, user interfaces and management functions for all system domains within a vehicle's electronics. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: At present, proprietary products dominate in automotive electronics. This situation prevents automotive OEMs and their suppliers from sharing technologies. As a result, assuming the number of functions performed by automotive electronics continues to grow exponentially, their proliferation will become difficult to control. Autosar is currently in the product prototyping and development phase. When it becomes commercially available it will provide a much improved architectural environment for the management of functions and system domains. User Advice: Autosar is rapidly gaining attention from automotive OEMs and system designers. Work on prototype products is under way. Autosar is positioned to emerge as the de facto standard for automotive electronics hardware and software platforms. Business Impact: If Autosar succeeds, car manufacturers will be able to standardize and share components and thereby lower system development costs for future automotive electronics. Many of Autosar's low-level components are based on the OSEK-VDX operating system, which is widely deployed by automotive OEMs in Europe. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: BMW; Bosch; Continental; DaimlerChrysler; Ford; PSA Peugeot Citroen; Siemens VDO Automotive; Toyota; Volkswagen
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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User Advice: Hydrogen fuel-cell trials are starting in major vehicle test drives as the global economy readies itself for an ongoing oil reserve crisis. Hydrogen fuel cells may be used as replacement fuel for electric vehicles. Business Impact: This is a more environmentally friendly alternative to electric fuel cell technology. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: Ballard Power Systems; General Motors; Mitsubishi; Siemens AG Recommended Reading: "Hybrid Electric Vehicles Are a Step Toward 'Greener' Cars"
802.11b/g
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: This refers to access infrastructure that supports 802.11b and 802.11g standards. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: 802.11b/g is used more in homes than in offices, but it is starting to attract interest from automotive manufacturers looking to provide Internet access in the car. User Advice: Although 802.11b/g is widely used in many applications, automotive OEMs should wait for 802.11p, the version specifically designed for automobile applications. However, it is important to understand that the timing of 802.11p is linked to the deployment of the necessary
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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infrastructure. The 802.11p standard is expected to be released in 2009. Deployment will be three to five years after that. Business Impact: The effects of 802.11b/g deployment will be mobility, convenience, real-time collaboration and wireline replacement. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Audi; BMW; DaimlerChrysler; Nokia; Volkswagen
802.11p (DSRC)
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.11p standard, also referred to as Wireless Access in the Vehicular Environment (WAVE), is a standard in the IEEE 802.11 family that defines enhancements required to support Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) applications. The specification covers communications between vehicles and the roadside infrastructure in the licensed band of 5.9GHz (5.85GHz to 5.925GHz). 802.11p will be used as the blueprint for Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC). Position and Adoption Speed Justification: 802.11p is used in ad hoc wireless network communications for vehicular applications. User Advice: 802.11p is emerging as a dominant technology for wireless, short-range transaction communications, such as road tolling. Business Impact: 802.11p significantly enhances traffic flow by increasing the bandwidth of tolling plazas and by improving overall transaction-processing cycles. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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User Advice: Biometric ignition system readers need to be made more cost-effective and practicable for automotive OEMs to implement. Current solutions are not suited to frequent use, as fingerprint readers are easily obscured by smears. Business Impact: Biometric ignition technology enhances security for ignition systems in cars. It also enables highly personalized settings for the driver's seat, mirror, steering and driving mode (sporting or economy, for example). Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Bosch; Delphi; Siemens VDO Automotive Recommended Reading: "Manufacturers Personalize Car Electronics to Tempt Buyers" "Automotive Keyless Ignition: Going Biometric"
Head-Up Displays
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Head-up display (HUD) devices use light-emitting diode (LED) or liquid crystal display (LCD) projection technology to display images within a driver's line of vision. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Early warning signals and night vision enhancement systems use HUD technology. With the demography of the global population leading increasingly to an ageing global community, vision aids will enhance driver safety. User Advice: Already deployed by BMW as an option in its 5 Series, HUDs are slowly gaining market penetration. They are especially helpful in countries with high-speed freeways and for night-driving vision enhancement.
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Business Impact: HUDs enhance the safety of drivers when traveling in darkness. They enable drivers to keep their eyes on the road while critical information is projected through the windscreen. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Delphi Automotive Systems; Microvision; Siemens VDO Automotive Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Active Safety Electronics Will Make Cars Smarter and Safer"
42-Volt Net
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Auto makers are increasingly using electronics in innovative ways and to differentiate themselves. The 14-volt electrical system limits the amount of power available for new features, so auto makers and suppliers have proposed a standard 42-volt electrical system. The highervoltage system has implications for the electronics in vehicles and enables electronic systems that were not previously possible. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Most early 42-volt applications will target the powertrain because it is there that the greatest compliance with environmental regulations can be
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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achieved. In addition, auto makers are likely to target luxury or high-end vehicles, where higher profit margins will help to justify the cost of change. User Advice: The development of 42-volt systems has been put on hold until the industry can justify the cost of implementation. However, legislation may bring implementation of 42-volt systems forward. Business Impact: The development of electric vehicles could result in synergies suitable for the 42-volt system, and reduce costs and risks. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Embryonic Sample Vendors: BMW; Delphi; Denso; Johnson Controls; Renault; Siemens VDO Automotive; Toyota; Vishay Recommended Reading: "Hybrid Electric Vehicles Are a Step Toward 'Greener' Cars"
Safe-by-Wire Plus
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: The Safe-by-Wire Plus consortium was formed in 2004 to create a single and open global standard for an automotive safety bus. By defining a standardized bus interface, designs to ensure occupant safety may be substantially simplified, enabling rapid customization and reduced development costs. By the end of 2005, version 2.0 of the Automotive Safety Restraints Bus
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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(ASRB) was released. The ASRB 2.0 specification is now a global standard, ISO22896, otherwise known as Safe-by-Wire Plus. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Automotive safety is a key application area for automobile manufacturers because it increases sales of new cars. Reducing costs delivers an opportunity for manufacturers of safety electronics to deliver higher-value application complexities to automotive OEMs. User Advice: Safe-by-Wire Plus will be implemented by automotive OEMs as an enhancement to car safety systems and as a way to reduce the cost of electronics in auto safety applications. The Safe-by-Wire Plus bus speed can be changed on the fly, but is capable of speeds of 20, 40, 80 or 160 kilobits per second. Business Impact: Safe-by-Wire Plus will deliver enhancements to future safety systems for vehicle occupants, enabling connectivity between airbag crash sensors, airbag squib inflators and seat-belt pretensioners. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: Analog Devices; Autoliv; Bosch; Continental; Delphi; Key Safety Systems; NXP; Renesas; TRW Automotive Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Solid Prospects for Airbag Control Module Semiconductors"
Active Steering
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Active steering enables proportional steering ratios to be achieved by a stepper motor. The motor is controlled by a dedicated electronic control unit. It delivers sharper and more direct responses to steering at low speeds, and it makes parking in tight spots effortless. At high speeds, the steering is less direct so the vehicle is unaffected by small accidental steering movements on straight roads. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: A safety feature built into the system countersteers the vehicle to prevent spinning if the driver has to swerve sharply in an emergency maneuver. Safety features such as active steering will appeal to the aging demographic. User Advice: Active steering is aimed at enhancing vehicle safety and will be a major constituent technology in developing and enabling the autonomous vehicle. Business Impact: Active steering enhances vehicle safety and enables "autopilot" capability of next-generation cars. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: ZF Lenksysteme
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Active Safety Electronics Will Make Cars Smarter and Safer"
Haptics
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Haptics refers to the use of tactile interfaces, such as gloves or a joystick, to provide touch or force feedback as part of the user interface. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: In cars, multifunction computer systems, such as those for navigation and "infotainment," are using haptic technology to help drivers navigate through menu-driven applications. The use of haptic technology is well established in games and remote controls, but wider adoption will depend on broader acceptance of virtual-reality applications, or on more-seamless inclusion in standard interface components, such as touchpads and mice. Haptic technology is being deployed in high-end automobiles using a joystick-like controller for multifunction systems. BMW first implemented this technology in its 7 Series model with the iDrive controller. User Advice: Haptic technology in cars needs to be optimally aligned with the user-interface software to enable user-friendly multimedia access and control. Business Impact: Haptic technology helps provide force-feedback communication to drivers without them having to look away from the road at complex controls. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Immersion; SensAble Technologies
FlexRay
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: FlexRay is a new network communications system targeted specifically at the nextgeneration of automotive, or "by-wire" applications. These applications demand high-speed bus systems that are deterministic, fault-tolerant and capable of supporting distributed control systems. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The need for a network standard that can cope with the data transmission rates of by-wire technology is growing. User Advice: FlexRay was first targeted at high-speed automotive and industrial-networking applications. It was initially for chassis applications, but semiconductor vendors are now starting to target automotive powertrain and safety electronics applications. Business Impact: With the increasing amount of data communication between a vehicle's electronic control units, it is important that a high data rate can be achieved. FlexRay is initially aimed at a data rate of approximately 10 Mbps, but the design of the protocol allows for much higher data rates to be achieved. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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vehicle ahead and decelerating the engine or, in extreme conditions, applying the braking system. When the road is clear, the system enables the car to accelerate to the set speed. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: BMW; DaimlerChrysler; Denso; Ford; General Motors; Robert Bosch; Toyota Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Active Safety Electronics Will Make Cars Smarter and Safer"
Brake-by-Wire
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Brake-by-wire systems will eliminate hydraulic braking systems by replacing conventional actuators with electric motor-driven units. This does away with many of the manufacturing, maintenance and environmental concerns associated with hydraulic systems. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Brake-by-wire systems provide a safer and moreprecise braking system, with a high degree of efficiency and accuracy. User Advice: Consumers will need to be convinced that this technology is at least as reliable as established hydraulic and mechanical braking systems. Business Impact: Brake-by-wire systems enhance vehicle safety and enable "autopilot" capability of next-generation cars. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: ADC (Continental Temic); Bosch; Continental Automotive Systems; Delphi; Denso; Visteon Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Active Safety Electronics Will Make Cars Smarter and Safer"
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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User Advice: Safety is a major driver for the use of image sensors and image analysis systems in automobiles, and these sensors and systems will be used for several different applications. To date, image sensors in cars have been primarily used for backup cameras to detect objects behind a car when in reverse. In the future, image sensors will be used for lane change assistance, night vision, parking assistance, front-seat occupant detection for smart airbag deployment, drowsy driver alert and backseat monitoring. Systems that provide the driver with an accurate picture of the changing environment surrounding them and help them make better decisions in critical situations or intervene with vehicle control if necessary will drive this accident-limiting technology. Business Impact: The combination of rugged image sensors with high dynamic range and highperformance image-processing capabilities in automobiles will deliver several new applications to enhance driver safety and security. As performance increases and the cost of imaging systems decreases, image sensors will penetrate more classes of automobiles. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: ADC (Continental Temic); Bosch; Delphi; Visteon
Radar Sensors
Analysis By: Adriana Blanco Definition: Radar sensors use Doppler radar systems for measuring the vehicle's linear velocity. Beams are emitted and the reflections from vehicles nearby are used to calculate distance, relative positions and relative speed. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: These type of sensors are good for situations that require effective distance measurements and relative positions of other vehicles. The 24GHz frequency is used for close-range (less than 30 meters) sensing features such as blind spot detection and lane change assistance. The 77GHz frequency is used specifically for adaptive cruise control (ACC) long-range sensing (less than 140 meters). User Advice: Traditionally, ACC is only activated at speeds of more than 30 kilometers per hour. Consequently, it was not well-suited for city use, but was usually intended instead for motorway use. Currently, better performance sensors are available for short distances and have improved the monitoring of the surroundings of a car in stop-and-go driving conditions typical of city driving. Users should also consider the possibilities of wireless communications such as 802.11p and GPS for collision avoidance systems, such as car-to-car communications and car-to-infrastructure communications. Business Impact: Overall, sensors are used for monitoring different areas around and inside the car. Radar sensors are used for close-range and long-range sensing, depending on the frequency used. The use of this type of sensor, among others, will enable 360-degree visibility around the car, enabling safety and driving assistance features that will not only warn drivers but also intervene actively in the mechanics of the vehicle to avoid a collision. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Sample Vendors: Continental; Delphi; Hella; Mitsubishi; M/A-COM; Robert Bosch; TRW Automotive
Remote Diagnostics
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Remote diagnostics refers to the wireless transmission of vehicle diagnostics data to an authorized dealer service center for vehicle maintenance purposes. The automatically captured diagnostics information and the automatically delivered service requests to the dealership are sometimes referred to as telematics, but this is actually the same telemetry technology used in Formula 1 motor racing. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Remote diagnostics offers a value-added service for car owners and reduced vehicle downtime when scheduled for routine servicing. User Advice: Recommendations will depend on widespread infrastructure availability for wireless networking, such as Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM), general packet radio service (GPRS), Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution (EDGE) or 802.11x technologies. Business Impact: Experience is likely to foster vehicle manufacturer brand loyalty. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: Less than 1% of target audience Maturity: Emerging Sample Vendors: ATX Group; BMW; Mercedes-Benz; OnStar
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 5% to 20% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Garmin; Magellan; TomTom
Bluetooth Automotive
Analysis By: Mike Williams; Stanley Bruederle Definition: Bluetooth is a short-range wireless communication technology that enables connectivity between electronic devices and peripherals. A collection of Bluetooth profiles exists that permit the connection of a wide variety of peripherals to computers and phones. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: This maturing technology can be effective when used to connect peripherals such as headsets in cars. It also enables connectivity between portable mobile devices such as mobile phones, in-car entertainment systems and GPS navigation devices. Bluetooth technology has enabled cost-effective delivery of hands-free car kits to many car owners and drivers worldwide. Bluetooth technology is now being used for streaming digital music content from cell phones and portable MP3 players inside cars. Microsoft's Sync (Ford) and Blue&Me (Fiat) offer this feature for digital music streaming. User Advice: Embedding Bluetooth capability during car manufacturing is still an expensive option. Most consumers prefer to install lower-cost Bluetooth car kits or Bluetooth earpieces/headsets available from aftermarket channels as a less expensive solution. Business Impact: Bluetooth enables cost-effective implementation of wireless peripheral connectivity. In many applications, Bluetooth will compete with wired connectivity solutions such as the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers' 1394/Universal Serial Bus (USB) interface connectivity technology. Benefit Rating: Moderate Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Acura; Aisin Seiki; Audi; BMW; Continental; Delphi; Fiat Automobiles; Ford; Honda; Hyundai; Johnson Controls; Lexus; Nissan; Nokia; Parrot; Peiker acustic; PSA Peugeot Citroen; Renault; Saab; Toyota; Visteon; Volkswagen Recommended Reading: "Bluetooth in Automobiles: A Reality Check"
GPS/Telematics
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: The term "GPS/telematics" refers to use of the Global Positioning System to provide navigational assistance and location-based services to vehicles (in emergencies, for example). Position and Adoption Speed Justification: The picture regarding GPS navigation in vehicles is somewhat fragmented, with a range of technological approaches. Also, whereas some GPS products are installed while vehicles are still in the factory, others are fitted later by dealers.
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Telematic systems are starting to be used for consumer and fleet transport services. Automatic crash notification (ACN), in which emergency calls are triggered by an airbag system, is also emerging. In future, GPS navigation and telematics will enable fully autonomous vehicles. User Advice: Sales of GPS navigation units have increased significantly since the introduction of low-cost, portable products. Although this technology is not yet installed in all new cars, it probably will be in the future. Business Impact: GPS/telematics technology enables navigation and location-based services, and can improve driver and passenger safety through features such as ACN. Benefit Rating: Transformational Market Penetration: 1% to 5% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Audi; BMW; DaimlerChrysler; Delphi Automotive Systems; Denso; Ford; Garmin; General Motors; Nissan; Siemens VDO Automotive; Toyota; Volkswagen Recommended Reading: "Dataquest Insight: Automotive GPS Navigation Market to Grow Strongly" "Forecast: Automotive GPS Navigation Systems, Worldwide, 2000-2010"
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Digital Radio
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Digital radio broadcasts via satellite or terrestrial broadcasting systems that deliver CD-quality audio sound and clarity. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: Most media content is making a natural progression toward a digital format, so it is inevitable that radio transmission will migrate from analog formats to digital ones. Digital radio offers greater flexibility, quality and availability of service than analog radio systems. User Advice: Three leading digital radio technologies in use globally are: WorldSpace satellite radio in western Asia, the Middle East and Africa; digital satellite radio in the United States; and digital audio broadcasting in Europe. Business Impact: Incremental revenue-generating models could emerge from the availability of digital radio formats. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Adolescent Sample Vendors: Alpine Electronics; Audiovox; Blaupunkt; Clarion; Continental Automotive Systems; Delphi; Eclipse; Goodmans; Grundig; JVC; Kenwood; Panasonic; Pioneer; Tivoli; US Electronics
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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ESP/ESC
Analysis By: Mike Williams Definition: Electronic stability program (ESP)/electronic stability control (ESC) is an enhancement to anti-lock braking system (ABS) technology that focuses on dynamic control of vehicles. Position and Adoption Speed Justification: ESP/ESC was developed by OEMs in the automotive electronics industry to control vehicles in cases of oversteer and understeer. User Advice: ESP/ESC is fitted to vehicles with an ABS. In coming years, the technology will be widely adopted in several kinds of ABS in many different types of vehicle. Business Impact: ESP/ESC improves vehicle safety, especially by ensuring the best handling in emergency situations. Benefit Rating: High Market Penetration: 20% to 50% of target audience Maturity: Early mainstream Sample Vendors: Bosch; Continental Teves; Denso
Sample Vendors: Audi; BMW; DaimlerChrysler; Ford; General Motors; Toyota; Volkswagen
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Appendixes
Figure 3. Hype Cycle for Automotive Electronics, 2007
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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visibility
Lane Departure Warning Hydrogen (Fuel Cell) Autosar 802.11b/g 802.11p (DSRC) Biometric Ignition Safe-by-Wire Plus
Removable Solid-State Storage Fabric Sensors Integrated Starter Alternator Damper Night Vision Enhancement Systems FlexRay Autonomous Vehicle Hydrogen Fuel (Internal Combustion Engines) Active Steering CMOS Image Sensors Adaptive Cruise Control Haptics Head-Up Displays 42-Volt Net Local Interconnect Network ESP/ESC Digital Radio Media Oriented Systems Transport Ultrasonic Parking Sensors GPS/Telematics Rigid Disk Drives Remote Diagnostics Bluetooth Hybrid Electric Vehicles Brake-by-Wire As of July 2007
CAN/J1850
Radar Sensors
Technology Trigger
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
time
Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years
Source: Gartner (July 2007)
2 to 5 years
5 to 10 years
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
High
Moderate
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Definition Slightly improves processes (for example, improved user experience) that will be difficult to translate into increased revenue or cost savings
RECOMMENDED READING
"Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles, 2008" "Dataquest Insight: Top Electronic System Functions, 2007" "Manufacturers Personalize Car Electronics to Tempt Buyers" "Dataquest Insight: Active Safety Electronics Will Make Cars Smarter and Safer"
Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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Publication Date: 8 August 2008/ID Number: G00159716 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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