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Brussels,BostonUniversity,23/06/09

EARNEDVALUE EARNED VALUE APracticalApproach pp


PMI Belgium
Stephan Vandevoorde, Ing. Director of Programs & Events
stephan.vandevoorde@pmi-belgium.be stephan.vandevoorde@pmi-

Stephan Vandevoorde, Ing. Manager LT BE


stephan.vandevoorde@fabricomstephan.vandevoorde@fabricom-gti.com + 32 (0) 478 254761

CONTENT
IntroductiontoEarnedValue ApplyingEarnedValueManagement Experiences

Specialtopic:EarnedSchedule

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EV

WhataboutTimeForecasting? What about Time Forecasting?


PMIPracticeStandardforEarnedValueManagement,2005
VARIANCE ANALYSIS ScheduleVariance=SV=EV PV<0=delay>0=ahead SchedulePerformanceIndex=SPI=EV/PV<1=delay>1=ahead TimeEstimateatCompletion=EACt=PD/SPI PD=PlannedDuration

FORECAST

PMBOKGuide,FourthEdition
VARIANCE ANALYSIS ScheduleVariance=SV=EV PV<0=delay>0=ahead SchedulePerformanceIndex=SPI=EV/PV<1=delay>1=ahead S h d l P f I d SPI EV / PV <1 d l >1 h d Appliedontothecriticalpath ???

FORECAST

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EV

SV SPIRevisited SV SPI Revisited


ScheduleVariance SV=EV PV <0delay =0ontime >0ahead Bydefinitionatendofproject: EV=totalPV(BAC) ThusSV=PV PV=0 Showsperfectperformance!!! Whatifwearelate? SVisespressedinEuros Difficulttounderstand SchedulePerformanceIndex SPI=EV/PV <1delay =1ontime >1ahead Bydefinitionatendofproject: EV=totalPV(BAC) ThusSPI=PV/PV=1 Showsperfectperformance!!! Whatifwearelate? SPIisdimensionless Easiertounderstand

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EV

RealLifeLateProject Real Life Late Project


Sep/03 0 100 100 Nov/03 Jan/04 Mar/04 May/04 Jul/04

SV

200 300 400 400 500 600 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85

StartingMei/04: positivetrend forSV&SPI butweare slippingfurther Somethingis wrong

SPI
0.80 0 5 0.75 0.70 23/06/2009 EV 5

AnotherMethod Another Method


PMI Practice Standard for Earned Value Management Box 3-1:
Time-Based Schedule Measures An Emerging EVM Practice

Describes basic principles of a new method called Earned Schedule

Provides foundation for further development of and research intended to result in Earned Schedule acceptance as a valid extension to EV
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EarnedSchedule Earned Schedule


Created by Walt Lipke, Schedule is Different, The Measurable News, Summer 2003

PV

SV EV

time AD ES SV(t) PD

Earned Schedule (ES) = the time when the EV was to be achieved

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EarnedSchedule Earned Schedule


VARIANCE ANALYSIS ScheduleVarianceTime=SV(t)=ES Schedule Variance Time = SV(t) = ES AD AD=actualduration <0=delay0>ontime0=ahead Expressedintimeunits SchedulePerformanceIndexTime=SPI(t)=ES/AD <1=delay1=ontime>1=ahead FORECAST TimeEstimateatCompletion=EACt=PD/SPI(t) ToCompletePerformanceIndexTime TSPI(t)=(PD ES)/(PD AD)iftarget=PD TSPI(t)=(PD ES)/(LRD AD)iftargetisLatestRevisedDuration

ASSESS ASSESS REALISM

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EV

RealLifeLateProject Real Life Late Project


0 0.000 100 0.500

1.000 200 1.500 300 2 000 2.000 400 2.500 500 SV SV(t)

3.000

600

3.500

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RealLifeLateProject Real Life Late Project


1.000 0.950 0 950 0.900 0.850 0 850 0.800 0.750 0 750 0.700 0.650 0.600 SPI(t) SPI

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RealLifeLateProject Real Life Late Project


14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

AD ES PD PD/SPI / PD/SPI(t)

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RealLifeLateProject Real Life Late Project


1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 SPI(t) TCSPI(t) TCSPI(t) 11 TCSPI(t) 12

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ESResearch ES Research
Emperical evidence:
Vandevoorde St., Vanhoucke M., International Journal of Project Management, May 2006 A Comparison of different project duration forecasting methods using p p j g g earned value metrics

State of the Art Report on Forecasting Duration Methods Earned Schedule provide schedule metrics which behave correctly during the whole project life Earned Schedule forecasting is more reliable, and usefull to sanity check schedule expectations

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ESResearch ES Research
Academical Research:
Funded by PMI Belgium & FWO, Vlaanderen

Vanhoucke M., Vandevoorde St., Journal of the Operational Research Society, October 2007 A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration
IPMA Research Award 22nd World Congress Rome Earned Schedule is the better performer for forecasting
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ESResearch ES Research

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ESResearch ES Research

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Information
A Belgian Research Effort

Book coming out soon EV/ES software package www.protrack.be

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Free Info, downloads, templates: www.earnedschedule.com Please respect copyright


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