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Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
2009 is the toughest year for airlines Quadruple Squeeze No one is immune! Falling Demand
Overcapacity
400 aircraft delivery in Asia Pacific
Fuel Volatility
Most airlines are hedged at $100 / bbl Reduction in fares & fuel surcharge
H1N1 Flu
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
Fuel prices
Fuel prices continue to be volatile While fuel prices have fallen, many airlines losing money/see lower profits due to hedging position Over 40 airlines have gone bankrupt and more financially weak airlines are expected to follow
2
3 4
Overcapacity
Overcapacity still persist A lot of aircraft coming into Asia Pacific, capacity growing faster than demand
NEW!!!
4
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
2009 industry losses doubled to US$9.0 billion Asia Pacific airlines hardest hit - US$3.3 billion loss Industry revenues to fall by US$80 billion or 15% to US$448 billion
Source: IATA
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
Source: IATA
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
4 0
-1.4
% Growth in RPKs
-4 -8
-2.6 -3.8 -5.7 -8.4 -9.1 -10.1 -11.6 -3.7 -5.9 -6.2 -5.6 -9.1 -10.1 -11.1
-15.6
Africa
Asia Pacific
Europe
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Total
Source: IATA
1Q09 yoy passenger traffic fell by 9.1% Asia Pacific 1Q09 yoy passenger traffic fell by 12.4%
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
The number of aircraft parked continue to increase (> 2300 aircraft parked in 2009)
Source: Ascend
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
10
266m
500m
700m 627m 2b 2.2b 3.5b 4b 7b 6b 3.1b 1.5b 1.8b
4b
19b 21b
31 b
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
11
161m 120m
+
40m
38m 3QFY08 46m 9m 4QFY08 FY08 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 FY08
1QFY08
2QFY08
_
177m
465m 472m
12
98m
320m 450m 470m 510m 650m 1.2b 1.2b 1.3b 1.3b 1.3b 1.1b 640m
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
13
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
15
3. Investors and analysts have expressed reservations on the comparability of our results to our peers unless our MTM losses are explicitly stated in line with other airlines. As such, they have been speculating on what would have been MAS financial results in an FRS 139 environment.
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
16
Air China
25 m
811 m
908m
17
18
FRS 139 Resetting of MTM Losses (Example) FRS 139 Resetting of MTM Losses
Balance Sheet @ 1/01/09
MTM Losses
(based on forward curve @ 31st March 2009)
(90)
(100)
Q1
(10)
Q2
0
Q3
0
Q4
0
2010
0
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
19
Q1
P&L (10)
Q2
-
Q3
-
Q4
-
2010
20
Note : Simulated reference. Other factors influencing derivates valuations are held constant
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
70
US$/bbl
60
50
SinJet
40
WTI Crude Jan-Mar09 SinJet avg 1Apr-10Jun09 SinJet avg Jan-10Jun09 SinJet avg
US$55/bbl
3/6/2009 4/3/2009 2/13/2009 2/20/2009 2/27/2009 3/13/2009 3/20/2009 3/27/2009 4/10/2009 4/17/2009
US$64/bbl
5/1/2009 5/8/2009 4/24/2009 5/15/2009
US$59/bbl
5/22/2009 5/29/2009 6/5/2009
30
1/2/2009 1/9/2009 1/16/2009 1/23/2009 1/30/2009 2/6/2009
Sin Jet
Source: Bloomberg SinJet and WTI Crude prices from 2 Jan 2009 rights reserved Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All
WTI Crude
21
266m
500m
700m 627m 2b 2.2b 3.5b 4b 7b 6b 3.1b 1.5b 1.8b
4b
19b 21b
31 b
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
23
161m 120m
+
40m
38m 3QFY08 46m 9m 4QFY08 FY08 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 FY08
1QFY08
2QFY08
_
177m
465m 472m
24
1Q09 impact of challenging operating environment resulted in demand and revenue decline
+ Operating loss of RM138 million in 1Q09 Total operating expenditure decreased by 20%
Revenue declined due to the worst global recession in 70 years Seat factor dropped 13.1 ppts Pax yield up 4% to 29.5 sen/RPK
In response to the collapse in demand, we have proactively reduced capacity by 11%
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
25
1Q08 (RM mil) 2,246 401 156 392 147 406 2 3,750 1,442 2,175 133 (4) (14) 115 5 (0) 120
26
1,594 400 171 235 65 275 2,740 713 2,165 (138) (557) (17) 12 (700) 6 (1) (695)
19.7
-16%
16.5
1Q08
1Q09
1Q08
1Q09
13,565
-11%
12,095
Yield (sen/RPK)
28.4
+4%
29.5
6,785
1Q09 1Q08
*Excluding Firefly and MASwings Including fuel surcharge and admin fees
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
27
Freighter
RCTKM* (sen/CTKM) 57.6 -24% 43.7
1Q09
1Q08
1Q09
64.4
-0.4ppts 64.0
603
-28% 436
1Q08
* Include (cargo) fuel surcharge
1Q09
1Q08
1Q09 28
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
Maintenance Leasing Sales Incentives Advertising Staff Costs In flight cost Commissions Fuel Others TOTAL
Engine maintenance for B777 New lease of 738-800 in 2009, one-off rate reduction in MASkargo lease rental in 2008
Largely decline in pax growth Removal and reduction in commission Lower avg fuel price from US$114 to US$62 and lower consumption
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
29
1Q09 Fuel Analysis Reduction in total fuel cost from lower fuel price and consumption
RM billion
-0.63 1.44
1,220
- 0.73
+0.15 -0.25
0.71
1Q08
Price
Forex
Volume
1Q09
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
30
Cash
Negotiable Deposit
Other Current Assets Non Current Assets Deferred Tax Assets Total Assets Long Term Borrowing Other Liabilities Total Liabilities
4,3,772
2,942
3,572
830
2,132 3,208 20 9,132 (668) (8,911) (9,579)
1,045
2,311 3,142 (0) 10,070 (986) (4,887) (5,873)
4,617
Net Assets
Represented by: Shareholders Equity Minority Interests
(447)
(459) 12
4,197
4,186 11
31
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
Proforma as at 29th May 2009, the shareholders equity is +RM692 m (i.e. no longer meeting the PN17 criteria)
We have obtained a PN17 waiver from Bursa
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
32
33
Proforma non-FRS139
FRS 139
1.73
1.73
1.73
Reserves
2.382
(2.19)1
(1.04)3
Equity
4.11
PN 17 Threshold = RM0.06 b
(0.46)
0.69
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
34
66 61
56 52 52 50
3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr
58
51
30 Apr
8 May 15 May
22 May
29 May
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
Since 31st March 2009, oil price has increased more than 35% As of 29th May 2009, MAS could benefit from hedging gain of RM1.1 billion in the Q2 P&L Consequently, it could mean that MAS Q1 RM695 million will be fully reversed by the RM1.1 billion
RM
1.1b gain
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
36
If oil price continue to rise higher than 31st March 2009 (USD 49 / bbl WTI )
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
37
Initiatives
We are on track to achieve profitable growth but interrupted by current global recession
35x 737-800 6x A380 15x ATR Codeshares & Interline
Everyday Low Fares All Inclusive Fares MH Value Fares Weekend Specials Fuel Surcharge Reduction
Profitable Growth
MH & safety Skytrax 5-Star award (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009) >34 awards (2005 - 2008)
Competitive fares
5 Star
Get more customers, more revenue Lower cost
Increased internet sales 3rd party MRO Haj & Charter Firefly
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
39
Our focus for 2009 is to continue with our competitive fares initiatives to stimulate demand
1
Everyday Low Fares
2
MH Value Fares
MH Stimulus Package
40
With Everyday Low Fares & All Inclusive Low Fares Internet sales improved by 173% in 2008
MH Value Fares MATF & MATTA
FARES
2008/09
RM 475 mil
Total internet sales improvement from Jan-Dec08 -
2007/08
Mar
Aug
May
Dec
June
July
Sept
Nov
2009
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
Feb
Mar
41
Jan
Apr
Oct
99 m
57 m
42 m 31 m 44 m
Jan 08
Jan 09
Feb 08
Feb 09
March 08
March 09
+82.5%
Sales in RM million
+164%
+121%
42
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
One of the first airlines in It is about providing value They will now have full
control of their travel experience with four new fare options for economy class travel. and choice to our customers Asia to launch these fare options
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
43
Aggressively Domestic & Global Sales MAS connects to hundreds of destinations with 700 sales staff and 1,300 agents in over 30 countries worldwide
Malaysia Airlines Travel Fair February 2009 MATTA Travel Fair March 2009
MHs global travel fairs are proven to deliver results up to 50% up lift of passengers Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
44
Our travel fair has showed 50% - 415% improvement in passenger and revenue
MATF MATTA
+52%
92,000
140,000
+42%
100 m
70.32 m
+525%
25,000
+415%
18.1 m
3.51 m
4,000
2008
2009
2008
2009
2008
2009
2008
2009
Pax
Sales (RM)
Pax (000)
Sales (RM m)
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
45
Something for everyone! 9 deals covering first, business and economy class travel Covers 7 deals for
economy class travel, 1 for business and 1 for business and first class
Covers domestic,
ASEAN and international travel
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
46
5.
2.
3.
1.
4.
Dual Pricing & Aggressive Sales Subsidiary ancillary / revenues Strategic Alliances
6.
7.
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
48
On track to implement tough cost measures in 2009 to preserve cash target RM700m RM1b
1
2 3
4 5
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49
1 3 Dynamic
Pricing
Maintain Yield and accept a reduction in seat factor Drop Yield and reduce drop in seat factor Tandem increase in yield and seat factor (complicated but needed fine tuning)
2
Yield
3
Drop Yield Drop Seat Factor
High
2
Low Low
Seat Factor
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
50
Peak Flights
Cost plus pricing Aim to maximise profit Accept lower Seat Factor in return for higher yields
51
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
51
ROUTE
LHR
MH1 MH2 MH4
AMS
MH16 MH17
SYD
LAX
MH90
EWR
MH91
FLIGHT
MONTH
DAY
31
28
31
31
28
31
31
28
31
110,076 P&L
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
52
53
If oil price continue to rise higher than 31st March 2009 (USD 49 / bbl WTI )
54
Thank You
Back-up
Bookings (000)
411,000
245 m
207,000
2008
2009 *
2008
2009 *
+81%
*January 2009 24 May 2009
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
+98%
57
1 3 Dynamic
Pricing
Maintain Yield and accept a reduction in seat factor Drop Yield and reduce drop in seat factor Tandem increase in yield and seat factor (complicated but needed fine tuning)
2
Yield
3
Drop Yield Drop Seat Factor
High
2
Low Low
Seat Factor
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
58
Sales & Booking improvement of 126% and 158% despite economy slowdown
Sales (RM)
269 m
Bookings (000)
236,000
119 m
91,000
2008
2009
2008
2009
+126%
JanuaryMarch 2009
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
+158%
59
Category 1
Category 2
-108 +23
+564 -695
*Note: Category 1 - One off items, e.g., gain on sale of properties, disposal of aircraft Category 2 - Unusual items occurred during the year due to change in estimates and/or change in accounting policies, revised depreciation
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
60
5.9%
17,160
27,427
19,536
13,160
5% 0% -5%
7.4
5.7 76.1
7.2
5.6 77.6
0.4%
1.2%
58,529
45,395
-0.8%
63,853
50,889
-5.6% -8.2ppt
-5.8%
-5.7ppt
-2.3ppt -5.5%
-2.6%
SIA
Thai
Ask RPK Yield
Cathay
RASK SF ppt
Qantas
Source: Company, Research reports estimates Note: 1) SIA Jan-Mar09 2) Thai Jan-Mar09, seat factor Jan-Feb09 3) CX data 2H08 31/12/08 4) Qantas data 1H09 31/12/08 5) ASK & RPK in million 6) Yield (US cents/RPK) 7) RASK (US cents/ASK)
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
61
5.9% 5% 0.4% 0% -0.8% -5% -5.4% -10% -10.7% -15% -14.9% -20% -20.3% -25% -15.2% -15.3% -2.6% -5.6% -5.8% -1.8% -5.5% 1.2% 71.2 76.1 77.6 79.7 -2.4ppt -2.3ppt -5.7ppt -8.2ppt
Ask
Yield Cathay
RASK Qantas
SF
Source: Company, Research reports estimates Note: 1) SIA Jan-Mar09 2) Thai Jan-Mar09, seat factor Jan-Feb09 3) CX data 2H08 31/12/08 4) Qantas data 1H09 31/12/08 5) ASK & RPK in million 6) Yield (US cents/RPK) 7) RASK (US cents/ASK)
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved
62
800
738
700
80%
On T ar g et ( 8 0 - 8 9 )
87%
600
T hr esho ld ( 70 - 79 )
60%
500
400 40%
300
200 20%
Total (initiatives registered) Total (due by end Mar 09) Completed (by end Mar 09)
100
Delayed
63
64