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1st Quarter 2009 Financial Results

as at 31st March 2009


Presentation to Media
Dato Sri Idris Jala (MD/CEO) Tengku Dato Azmil (ED/CFO) 12 June 2009

State of the aviation industry

Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved

2009 is the toughest year for airlines Quadruple Squeeze No one is immune! Falling Demand
Overcapacity
400 aircraft delivery in Asia Pacific

Fuel Volatility
Most airlines are hedged at $100 / bbl Reduction in fares & fuel surcharge

H1N1 Flu
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved

2009 is the most challenging time for the airline industry


1

Fuel prices
Fuel prices continue to be volatile While fuel prices have fallen, many airlines losing money/see lower profits due to hedging position Over 40 airlines have gone bankrupt and more financially weak airlines are expected to follow

2
3 4

Overcapacity
Overcapacity still persist A lot of aircraft coming into Asia Pacific, capacity growing faster than demand

Global economic slowdown


Delaying spending due to economic uncertainties Weaker demand for discretionary travel Lower global air traffic, companies downgrading from business to economy Globally, airlines have recorded dips in passenger loads and yield pressures

H1N1 Flu Pandemic


Heightened level of alert to Phase 5, spreading globally A huge threat to airline and air travel recovery

NEW!!!
4

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IATA Airline industry outlook remains fragile


Carriers in all regions expected to report losses in 2009

2009 industry losses doubled to US$9.0 billion Asia Pacific airlines hardest hit - US$3.3 billion loss Industry revenues to fall by US$80 billion or 15% to US$448 billion

Passenger traffic expected to contract by 8%


Cargo to decline by 17% Yields to decline 7% Industry shrinking - 6% capacity cut Growing concern on traffic - swine influenza

50 airlines have gone bankrupt in the last 18 months

Source: IATA, June 2009


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Weak trends in freight and travel continues


International Passenger and Freight Growth

Source: IATA
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Sharp fall in traffic downward trend continues


International Passenger Load Factors

Source: IATA

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Sharp fall in traffic, Asia Pacific hardest hit!


Passenger Growth by Region
8
4.7 Jan-09 3.1 0.4 Feb-09 2.7 Mar-09 YTD-09

4 0
-1.4

% Growth in RPKs

-4 -8

-2.6 -3.8 -5.7 -8.4 -9.1 -10.1 -11.6 -3.7 -5.9 -6.2 -5.6 -9.1 -10.1 -11.1

-12 -16 -20


-13.7

-11.2 -12.4 -12.8 -14.5

-10.6 -12.0 -13.4

-15.6

Africa

Asia Pacific

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

North America

Total
Source: IATA

1Q09 yoy passenger traffic fell by 9.1% Asia Pacific 1Q09 yoy passenger traffic fell by 12.4%
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Pressure mounts amidst new capacity

Source: Ascend, IATA

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The number of aircraft parked continue to increase (> 2300 aircraft parked in 2009)

Source: Ascend

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10

State of the Airline Industry - 2008


3.8b 3.2b

630m 550m 244m

320m 330m 400m

266m

500m
700m 627m 2b 2.2b 3.5b 4b 7b 6b 3.1b 1.5b 1.8b

4b

19b 21b

31 b

(Net income in RM)


Source: Bloomberg

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NOT EXHAUSTIVE

11

State of Malaysian Carriers in 2008 Profitability impacted by tough operating environment


244m

161m 120m

+
40m
38m 3QFY08 46m 9m 4QFY08 FY08 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 FY08

1QFY08

2QFY08

_
177m

(Net income in RM) Source: Company results announcement


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465m 472m

12

State of the Airline Industry - 1st Quarter 2009

42m 21m 300m 21m

98m

320m 450m 470m 510m 650m 1.2b 1.2b 1.3b 1.3b 1.3b 1.1b 640m

2.3b 2.3b 2.8 b

(Net income in RM)


Source: Bloomberg

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NOT EXHAUSTIVE

13

Early Adoption of FRS 139

What is FRS 139?


Financial Reporting Standard 139 is a standard issued by the Malaysian Accounting Standards Board (MASB) that establishes the principles for recognising and measuring financial assets, financial liabilities and certain contracts to buy or sell non-financial items. It is similar to International Accounting Standard IAS39 which are already adopted by many international airlines. FRS 139 is to be made mandatory in Malaysia effective from 1st January 2010.

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15

Key Rationale for Early Adoption FRS 139


1. Most airlines have hedged fuel at US$100+ per barrel and are incurring huge MTM losses 2. FRS 139 has been adopted in most countries. Most airlines (Singapore Airlines, Cathay, Qantas) are on IAS 39 regime and US & European airlines are already on IAS 39/FAS 133

3. Investors and analysts have expressed reservations on the comparability of our results to our peers unless our MTM losses are explicitly stated in line with other airlines. As such, they have been speculating on what would have been MAS financial results in an FRS 139 environment.
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16

Many have declared mark-to-market losses in 2008


Singapore Airlines Cathay Pacific China Airlines 629 m Shanghai Airlines China Eastern Air France - KLM

Hedging Gain / Loss (USD)

Air China

25 m

811 m

908m

980 m 994 m 1.18b


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Asia Pacific airlines fuel hedging mark to market losses for 2008 Source : Bloomberg, Analyst Reports, Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, internet

17

Impact from adoption of FRS 139


1. P&L MTM losses - Big hit in opening reserves at 1st January 2009 Effectively, the P&L is reset to oil price forward curve as at 1st January 2009 MTM impact will change depending on the oil price forward curve Upward movement will result in MTM gain

Downward movement will result in MTM loss


The fuel MTM losses are effectively paper losses and will only be realised over the next three years and the quantum realised is subjected to the actual oil prices 2. Balance Sheet Unrealised hedges will be recognised in the Balance Sheet

No impact on MAS healthy cash position, fundamentals remain intact


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18

FRS 139 Resetting of MTM Losses (Example) FRS 139 Resetting of MTM Losses
Balance Sheet @ 1/01/09

MTM Losses
(based on forward curve @ 31st March 2009)

(90)

(100)

Profit & Loss

Q1
(10)

Q2
0

Q3
0

Q4
0

2010
0

Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved

* Simulated for reference only

19

FRS 139 Resetting of MTM Losses (Example)


USD 70 USD 60 USD 50
Balance Sheet (90)
Gain Loss

MTM Loss (100)

Q1
P&L (10)

Q2
-

Q3
-

Q4
-

2010
20

Note : Simulated reference. Other factors influencing derivates valuations are held constant
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved

Oil price volatility continues into 2009


Hedges provide protection from the rising fuel price
80

10 Jun 2009 SinJet US$78/bbl WTI US$71/bbl

70

US$/bbl

60

50

SinJet

40
WTI Crude Jan-Mar09 SinJet avg 1Apr-10Jun09 SinJet avg Jan-10Jun09 SinJet avg

US$55/bbl
3/6/2009 4/3/2009 2/13/2009 2/20/2009 2/27/2009 3/13/2009 3/20/2009 3/27/2009 4/10/2009 4/17/2009

US$64/bbl
5/1/2009 5/8/2009 4/24/2009 5/15/2009

US$59/bbl
5/22/2009 5/29/2009 6/5/2009

30
1/2/2009 1/9/2009 1/16/2009 1/23/2009 1/30/2009 2/6/2009

Sin Jet
Source: Bloomberg SinJet and WTI Crude prices from 2 Jan 2009 rights reserved Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All

WTI Crude

21

1st Quarter 2009 Financial Highlights

State of the Airline Industry - 2008


3.8b 3.2b

630m 550m 244m

320m 330m 400m

266m

500m
700m 627m 2b 2.2b 3.5b 4b 7b 6b 3.1b 1.5b 1.8b

4b

19b 21b

31 b

(Net income in RM)


Source: Bloomberg

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NOT EXHAUSTIVE

23

State of Malaysian Carriers in 2008 Profitability impacted by tough operating environment


244m

161m 120m

+
40m
38m 3QFY08 46m 9m 4QFY08 FY08 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 FY08

1QFY08

2QFY08

_
177m

(Net income in RM) Source: Company results announcement


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465m 472m

24

1Q09 impact of challenging operating environment resulted in demand and revenue decline
+ Operating loss of RM138 million in 1Q09 Total operating expenditure decreased by 20%

Revenue declined due to the worst global recession in 70 years Seat factor dropped 13.1 ppts Pax yield up 4% to 29.5 sen/RPK
In response to the collapse in demand, we have proactively reduced capacity by 11%

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25

Overview of Group Profit & Loss: 1Q09 vs 1Q08


1Q09 (RM mil) Passenger Pax Revenue Fuel Surcharge Other Revenue Cargo Belly & Freighter Fuel Surcharge Other Revenue Gain on sale of properties Revenue Expenditure Fuel Non-fuel Operating Profit before fin cost & taxes Derivative losses Finance costs Taxation Operating Profit after fin cost & taxes Share of results of Associated Companies Minority Interest Net Profit after tax
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1Q08 (RM mil) 2,246 401 156 392 147 406 2 3,750 1,442 2,175 133 (4) (14) 115 5 (0) 120
26

1,594 400 171 235 65 275 2,740 713 2,165 (138) (557) (17) 12 (700) 6 (1) (695)

1Q09 Passenger*: RASK , Yield , Seat Factor


Pax Revenue (RM mil) 2,666 -25% 1,999 RASK (sen/ASK)

19.7

-16%

16.5

2,220 1,551 16.4 12.8

1Q08

1Q09

1Q08

1Q09

Capacity ASK (Mil km)

13,565

-11%

12,095

Yield (sen/RPK)

28.4

+4%

29.5

Seat Factor (%) RPK (Mil km)

-13.1ppts 69.2 9,386 1Q08 -28% 56.1 23.6 22.9 1Q09

6,785
1Q09 1Q08

*Excluding Firefly and MASwings Including fuel surcharge and admin fees
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27

1Q09 Cargo: Belly


540 Cargo Revenue* (RM mil) -45% 298

Freighter
RCTKM* (sen/CTKM) 57.6 -24% 43.7

1Q08 Capacity CTKM (Mil km) 936 -27%

1Q09

1Q08

1Q09

682 Yield* (sen/LTKM) 89.5 -24% 68.3

Cargo Load Factor (%)

64.4

-0.4ppts 64.0

Filled LTKM (Mil km)

603

-28% 436

1Q08
* Include (cargo) fuel surcharge

1Q09

1Q08

1Q09 28

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Total expenditure decreased 20%, Fuel costs decreased 50%


Costs 1Q09 RM mil vs 1Q08 RM mil Variance

Maintenance Leasing Sales Incentives Advertising Staff Costs In flight cost Commissions Fuel Others TOTAL

320 495 23 22 531 89 73 713 612 2,878

+38 +34 +10 +6 -12 -19 -24 -729 -43 -739

Engine maintenance for B777 New lease of 738-800 in 2009, one-off rate reduction in MASkargo lease rental in 2008

Advertising ELF & All Inclusive Fares campaign

Largely decline in pax growth Removal and reduction in commission Lower avg fuel price from US$114 to US$62 and lower consumption

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29

1Q09 Fuel Analysis Reduction in total fuel cost from lower fuel price and consumption

RM billion

-0.63 1.44
1,220

- 0.73
+0.15 -0.25

Price decreased by USD52 from USD114/bbl to USD62/bbl

0.71

1Q08

Price

Forex

Volume

1Q09

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30

Balance Sheet Healthy Cash Balance


RM mil 31 Mar 2009 31 Dec 2008

Cash

Negotiable Deposit
Other Current Assets Non Current Assets Deferred Tax Assets Total Assets Long Term Borrowing Other Liabilities Total Liabilities

4,3,772

2,942

3,572

830
2,132 3,208 20 9,132 (668) (8,911) (9,579)

1,045
2,311 3,142 (0) 10,070 (986) (4,887) (5,873)

4,617

Net Assets
Represented by: Shareholders Equity Minority Interests

(447)
(459) 12

4,197
4,186 11
31

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Impact to Balance Sheet


Unrealised MTM loss triggers negative equity Shareholders equity as at 31st March 2009 is -RM459 m. This means that technically we meet the definition of a PN17 company However operations remains robust and healthy

Proforma as at 29th May 2009, the shareholders equity is +RM692 m (i.e. no longer meeting the PN17 criteria)
We have obtained a PN17 waiver from Bursa

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32

Rationale for obtaining PN17 waiver from Bursa


First time adoption and transition to FRS139 Negative equity of RM0.46 billion of which -RM3.3 billion is attributed to MTM The fuel MTM losses are effectively paper losses. These will only be realized over time as the hedges are contractual arrangements over the next three years (2009, 2010, 2011) The fuel MTM will fluctuate with oil price movements. It will reduce if the oil prices move upwards relative to current forward curve. It is such that on daily basis, MAS could be in and out of PN17. MAS liquidity is still strong with cash balance of RM3.8 billion and minimum immediate obligation.
* projected opening 1/1/2009 with FRS139 ** projection made in April 2009
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33

Equity position would be positive at 29 May forward curve


Balance Sheet
as at 31Mar09 (in RM billion)

Proforma non-FRS139

FRS 139

Proforma FRS 139


with fuel MTM (29May09)

Share cap & RCPS

1.73

1.73

1.73

Reserves

2.382

(2.19)1

(1.04)3

Equity

4.11
PN 17 Threshold = RM0.06 b

(0.46)

0.69

Include unrealised MTM loss of RM3.33 billion

No unrealised MTM in reserves

Unrealised fuel MTM loss dropped by RM 1.15 billion

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34

MTM Trend: Sensitivity to oil prices


Fuel MTM has improved by RM1.1 billion since 31 Mar 2009 due to upward price movement
RM (Million)

Weekly Fuel MTM movement relative to 31/03/2009

66 61

1,000 800 600 400 200 0

56 52 52 50
3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr

58

51

30 Apr

8 May 15 May

22 May

29 May

Fuel WTI (USD/ bbl) 35

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Potential hedging gains in Q2 due to oil price movements


Ceteris paribus (all else being equal)

Since 31st March 2009, oil price has increased more than 35% As of 29th May 2009, MAS could benefit from hedging gain of RM1.1 billion in the Q2 P&L Consequently, it could mean that MAS Q1 RM695 million will be fully reversed by the RM1.1 billion

RM

1.1b gain

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36

If oil price continue to rise higher than 31st March 2009 (USD 49 / bbl WTI )

+ Potential hedging gain of RM 1.1 billion


(as at 29th May 2009)

+ Continue to be protected with restructured hedges


(47% remaining volume hedged @ USD 103/ bbl WTI for 2009)

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37

Initiatives

We are on track to achieve profitable growth but interrupted by current global recession
35x 737-800 6x A380 15x ATR Codeshares & Interline

Grow network, build capacity

Everyday Low Fares All Inclusive Fares MH Value Fares Weekend Specials Fuel Surcharge Reduction

Profitable Growth
MH & safety Skytrax 5-Star award (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009) >34 awards (2005 - 2008)

Competitive fares

5 Star
Get more customers, more revenue Lower cost

Savings 2006: RM 665 m 2007: RM 738 m 2008: RM 936 m

Increased internet sales 3rd party MRO Haj & Charter Firefly

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39

Our focus for 2009 is to continue with our competitive fares initiatives to stimulate demand
1
Everyday Low Fares

2
MH Value Fares

MH Stimulus Package

Global Travel Fairs (MATF & MATTA)


Internet
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40

With Everyday Low Fares & All Inclusive Low Fares Internet sales improved by 173% in 2008
MH Value Fares MATF & MATTA

YoY Sales Comparison


180 160

FARES

Sales in Million (MYR)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

2008/09

RM 475 mil
Total internet sales improvement from Jan-Dec08 -

2007/08

Mar

Aug

May

Dec

June

July

Sept

Nov

2009
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Feb

Mar
41

Jan

Apr

Oct

Significant improvement in internet sales for Q1 2009 (compared to 2008)


112 m

99 m

57 m
42 m 31 m 44 m

Jan 08

Jan 09

Feb 08

Feb 09

March 08

March 09

+82.5%
Sales in RM million

+164%

+121%
42

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MAS has also introduced MH Value Fares


How would you like to fly today?

One of the first airlines in It is about providing value They will now have full
control of their travel experience with four new fare options for economy class travel. and choice to our customers Asia to launch these fare options

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43

Aggressively Domestic & Global Sales MAS connects to hundreds of destinations with 700 sales staff and 1,300 agents in over 30 countries worldwide
Malaysia Airlines Travel Fair February 2009 MATTA Travel Fair March 2009

MHs global travel fairs are proven to deliver results up to 50% up lift of passengers Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved

44

Our travel fair has showed 50% - 415% improvement in passenger and revenue
MATF MATTA

+52%
92,000

140,000

+42%
100 m
70.32 m

+525%
25,000

+415%
18.1 m

3.51 m

4,000

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

2008

2009

Pax

Sales (RM)

Pax (000)

Sales (RM m)

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45

GOOD RESPONSE TO MAS STIMULUS PACKAGE

Something for everyone! 9 deals covering first, business and economy class travel Covers 7 deals for
economy class travel, 1 for business and 1 for business and first class

Covers domestic,
ASEAN and international travel

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46

Challenges & Outlook 2009

3 thrusts and 7 KBAs to survive this crisis


Serve Customers
Make Money Save Money

5.
2.

3.

1.

MH initiatives / win awards

4.

Dual Pricing & Aggressive Sales Subsidiary ancillary / revenues Strategic Alliances

6.

7.

Capacity Cut Cost reduction / Budget cut 7% Fuel Hedging Restructuring


48

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48

On track to implement tough cost measures in 2009 to preserve cash target RM700m RM1b
1
2 3

Budget cut 7% across the board in 2009


Freeze all recruitment Freeze all discretionary training and traveling

4 5

Stop discretionary expenditure


Prioritise projects

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49

Strategic Approaches to deal with the crisis (i.e collapse in demand)


High

Increase Yield Drop Seat Factor

1 3 Dynamic
Pricing

Maintain Yield and accept a reduction in seat factor Drop Yield and reduce drop in seat factor Tandem increase in yield and seat factor (complicated but needed fine tuning)

2
Yield

3
Drop Yield Drop Seat Factor
High

2
Low Low

Seat Factor

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50

We have embarked on a revolutionary dual pricing approach Dual Pricing


Framework

Non Peak Flights


Competitive pricing Capture market share Go for high Seat Factor (e.g. Everyday Low Fares, travel fair, aggressive promotion, etc)

Peak Flights
Cost plus pricing Aim to maximise profit Accept lower Seat Factor in return for higher yields

51
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51

Our approach goes down to the route DNA level


MH Pax Business

ROUTE

LHR
MH1 MH2 MH4

AMS
MH16 MH17

SYD

LAX
MH90

EWR
MH91

FLIGHT

MONTH

DAY

31

28

31

31

28

31

31

28

31

110,076 P&L
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52

MAS Fundamentals Remain Intact


At current times Cash is king - cash & negotiable deposits of around RM3.8 billion as at Mar09

We do not take delivery of new jet aircraft until end 2010


To date, we have already proactively cut capacity by 11% in 2009

Cost savings of over RM2 billion over the last 3 years


We already have put in place stringent controls over costs and investments MAS continues to be hedged will continue to be protected from rising fuel prices Drive aggressive sales - forward booking remains strong Reinvent the way we manage inventory and yield
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53

If oil price continue to rise higher than 31st March 2009 (USD 49 / bbl WTI )

+ Potential hedging gain of RM 1.1 billion


(as at 29th May 2009)

+ Continue to be protected with restructured hedges


(47% remaining volume hedged @ USD 103/ bbl WTI for 2009)
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54

Thank You

For further queries, please email kinhoong.ma@malaysiaairlines.com

Back-up

Sales & Bookings Up by 81% and 98% despite H1N1 Flu


Sales (RM)
443 m

Bookings (000)
411,000

245 m

207,000

2008

2009 *

2008

2009 *

+81%
*January 2009 24 May 2009
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved

+98%

57

Strategic Approaches to deal with the crisis (i.e collapse in demand)


High

Increase Yield Drop Seat Factor

1 3 Dynamic
Pricing

Maintain Yield and accept a reduction in seat factor Drop Yield and reduce drop in seat factor Tandem increase in yield and seat factor (complicated but needed fine tuning)

2
Yield

3
Drop Yield Drop Seat Factor
High

2
Low Low

Seat Factor

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58

Sales & Booking improvement of 126% and 158% despite economy slowdown
Sales (RM)
269 m

Bookings (000)
236,000

119 m

91,000

2008

2009

2008

2009

+126%
JanuaryMarch 2009
Copyright Malaysian Airline System Berhad 2009. Highly Confidential . All rights reserved

+158%

59

1Q09 Loss After Tax Core net loss of RM108m


RM million

Net Loss After Tax

Category 1

Category 2

Net Loss on Recurring Basis

-108 +23

+564 -695

*Note: Category 1 - One off items, e.g., gain on sale of properties, disposal of aircraft Category 2 - Unusual items occurred during the year due to change in estimates and/or change in accounting policies, revised depreciation
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60

Peer performance - yoy [option 1]


15% 11.2% 10%

Year on Year Comparison (%)

5.9%

17,160

27,427

19,536

13,160

5% 0% -5%

7.7 5.5 71.2

7.4

5.7 76.1

7.2

5.6 77.6

0.4%

1.2%

58,529

45,395

-0.8%

63,853

-5.4% -10% -15%

50,889

-5.6% -8.2ppt

-5.8%

-5.7ppt

-2.3ppt -5.5%

-2.6%

-1.8%-2.4ppt 8.4 6.7 79.7

-10.7% -15.2% -20% -20.3% -25% -15.3% -14.9%

SIA

Thai
Ask RPK Yield

Cathay
RASK SF ppt

Qantas

Source: Company, Research reports estimates Note: 1) SIA Jan-Mar09 2) Thai Jan-Mar09, seat factor Jan-Feb09 3) CX data 2H08 31/12/08 4) Qantas data 1H09 31/12/08 5) ASK & RPK in million 6) Yield (US cents/RPK) 7) RASK (US cents/ASK)

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61

Peer performance - yoy [option 2]


15% 11.2% 10%

Year on Year comparison (%)

5.9% 5% 0.4% 0% -0.8% -5% -5.4% -10% -10.7% -15% -14.9% -20% -20.3% -25% -15.2% -15.3% -2.6% -5.6% -5.8% -1.8% -5.5% 1.2% 71.2 76.1 77.6 79.7 -2.4ppt -2.3ppt -5.7ppt -8.2ppt

Ask

RPK SIA Thai

Yield Cathay

RASK Qantas

SF

Source: Company, Research reports estimates Note: 1) SIA Jan-Mar09 2) Thai Jan-Mar09, seat factor Jan-Feb09 3) CX data 2H08 31/12/08 4) Qantas data 1H09 31/12/08 5) ASK & RPK in million 6) Yield (US cents/RPK) 7) RASK (US cents/ASK)

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62

No compromise on quality: Customer Value Proposition


MHCVP Progress (as at end Apr 09)
100%
Out st and ing ( 9 6 - 10 0 ) Exceed ing ( 9 0 - 9 5)

800

738
700

80%

On T ar g et ( 8 0 - 8 9 )

87%
600

T hr esho ld ( 70 - 79 )

60%

500

400 40%

300

200 20%

Total (initiatives registered) Total (due by end Mar 09) Completed (by end Mar 09)

738 707 614 93

100

Cumulative closure rate is at 87%


0% Total Copyright Malaysian Airline System BerhadCumulative Closure All rights reserved 2009. Highly Confidential . Rate

Delayed

0 projects initiated by end of Mar 2009

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MAS hedging position


MAS has restructured hedges in light of volatile fuel prices this is a more prudent measure than unwinding hedges Oil prices have moved up 25% since 31 March (until 2 June 2009) Restructured hedge position 53% @ US$106 WTI MAS will still be protected from rising fuel prices which will translate into write back on MTM unrealised hedging losses MAS effectively pays spot prices on the fuel it consumes today since all hedging losses has been accounted for. Consistent hedge practice ensures stable/longer term outlook
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