ESSMAN/RESEARCH

MARKETING RESEARCH THAT WORKS

FORUM COMMUNICATIONS COMPANY NORTH DAKOTA POLITIAL POLLING/JUNE 12 PRIMARY ELECTION SUMMARY REPORT CONFIDENTIAL _____________________________________________________________________________________
PROJECT OVERVIEW

Essman/Research, an independent marketing research firm in Des Moines, Iowa, was retained by Forum Communications Company to gather statistical data to determine whether voters in North Dakota approve or disapprove of two ballot measures on the June 12, 2012 primary ballot as well as identifying the candidates that voters will likely support for the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

Determine support for the following measures among likely voters: Whether North Dakota property taxes should be abolished (Measure No. 2) Whether University of North Dakota is required to be the Fighting Sioux (Measure No. 4) Who will voters support in the Primary Election for the Republican US House race Brian Kalk faces Kevin Cramer Who will voters support in the General Election race for North Dakotas open US Senate seat Democrat Heidi Heitkamp faces Republican Rick Berg or Duane Sand Who will voters support in the General Election race for the U.S. House Pam Gulleson (Democrat) faces Kevin Cramer or Brian Kalk (Republican)
TARGETED AUDIENCES

North Dakota residents/18+ years of age th Likely to vote in the June 12 Primary Election
METHODOLOGY

Essman/Research randomly surveyed 500 residents who are likely (extremely, very or th somewhat) to vote in the June 12 Primary Election. The polling was conducted from May 3 to May 8, 2012. 392 surveys (78%) were completed with residential landlines. 108 surveys (22%) were completed with cell phones. Essman/Research developed the survey and the random sample, conducted the polling, analyzed the data and prepared the Summary Report.
SAMPLING CONFIDENCE/MARGIN OF ERROR

On the total sample of 500 surveys, at a 95% confidence level, the margin of error is +/- 4.3%.
100 EAST GRAND SUITE 340 DES MOINES, IOWA 50309-1800 TEL: 515.282.7145 FAX: 515.282.4535 mail@essmanresearch.com www.essmanresearch.com

ESSMAN/RESEARCH

MARKETING RESEARCH THAT WORKS

DEMOGRAPHICS

Gender Female Male Age 18-30 31-45 46-65 65+ County Case Burleigh Grand Forks Ware Sioux Morton Stutsman Williams Stark Rolette Walsh Burke Cavalier Dickey Golden Valley LaMoure Ramsey Richland Traill Barnes Benson Emmons Grant Griggs McLean Pierce Ransom Steele Wells Bowman Divide Dunn

Percent/# of surveyed respondents

52% (262) 48% (238)

15% (76) 35% (175) 35% (177) 15% (72)

23% (116) 13% (63) 8% (42) 8% (41) 5% (25) 4% (21) 3% (15) 3% (15) 3% (14) 2% (10) 2% (10) 1% (5) 1% (5) 1% (5) 1% (5) 1% (5) 1% (5) 1% (5) 1% (5) 1% (4) 1% (4) 1% (4) 1% (4) 1% (4) 1% (4) 1% (4) 1% (4) 1% (4) 1% (4) 1% (3) 1% (3) 1% (3)

100 EAST GRAND SUITE 340 DES MOINES, IOWA 50309-1800 TEL: 515.282.7145 FAX: 515.282.4535 mail@essmanresearch.com www.essmanresearch.com

ESSMAN/RESEARCH

MARKETING RESEARCH THAT WORKS

Foster 1% (3) Kidder 1% (3) McKenzie 1% (3) Nelson 1% (3) Oliver 1% (3) Sheridan 1% (3) Less than 1% (1-2 surveys) completed in each of the following counties: Bottineau, Eddy, Logan, McIntosh, Pembina, Sargent, Slope, Towner, Billings, Hettinger, McHenry, Mercer, Mountrail Political Party Affiliation
Percent/# of surveyed respondents

Republican Independent Democrat Other Political Views Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Education Less than high school High school/GED Two year degree Some college College degree Post graduate Refused Attended College University of North Dakota North Dakota State University Other Ethnicity Caucasian African American Asian American Indian Native American Other Refused

38% / (192) 37% / (183) 23% / (117) 2% / (8)

5% / (24) 15% / (73) 27% / (135) 36% / (179) 18% / (89)

2% / (12) 19% / (97) 12% / (61) 18% / (89) 31% / (156) 17% / (84) <.5%/ (1)

23% / (55) 19% / (45) 58% / (140)

90% / (450) <.5% / (1) <.5% / (1) 1% / (3) 5% / (25) 2% / (12) 2% / (8)

100 EAST GRAND SUITE 340 DES MOINES, IOWA 50309-1800 TEL: 515.282.7145 FAX: 515.282.4535 mail@essmanresearch.com www.essmanresearch.com

ESSMAN/RESEARCH

MARKETING RESEARCH THAT WORKS

KEY FINDINGS SUMMARY

Likely to vote in the June 12th Primary Election. Among the North Dakota residents polled, 83% are extremely or very likely to vote in th the June 12 Primary.
Percent/# of surveyed respondents

Extremely likely 55% / (277) Very likely 27% / (137) Somewhat likely 17% / (86) A higher percentage of residents in Burleigh, Grand Forks and Ward counties are th extremely or very likely to vote in the June 12 Primary.
All Counties (500) Likely to Vote Extremely or Very Likely 83% (414) All counties, excluding Sioux (475) 83% (396) Sioux County (25)* 72% (18) County Breakdown Burleigh Cass County County (63) (116) 94% (59) 6% (4) 78% (90) 22% (26) Grand Forks (42) 88% (37) 12% (5) Ramsey County (5)* 40% (2) 60% (3) Ward County (41) 85% (35) 15% (6)

17% 17% 28% Somewhat (86) (79) (7) Likely *Significance testing is unreliable due to the small sample size.

100 EAST GRAND SUITE 340 DES MOINES, IOWA 50309-1800 TEL: 515.282.7145 FAX: 515.282.4535 mail@essmanresearch.com www.essmanresearch.com

ESSMAN/RESEARCH

MARKETING RESEARCH THAT WORKS

Initiated Constitutional Measure No. 2: The elimination of property taxes

This initiated constitutional measure would amend the North Dakota Constitution to eliminate property taxes, poll taxes and acreage taxes. The measure would require the Legislature to replace lost revenue to cities, counties, townships, school districts, etc. with state-level taxes and other revenues, without restrictions on how these revenues may be spent by the political subdivisions. If the election were held today, would you vote YES to approve the measure or NO to reject the measure? On Initiated Constitutional Measure No.2, the poll finds that 74% of likely voters plan to reject the measure, with only 26% voting for approval. There were no significant differences among party affiliation.
Measure No. 2 Yes, to approve No, to reject Total 100% (500) 26% (128) 74% (372) Republican (192) 28% (54) 72% (138) Political Party Democrat (117) 27% (31) 74% (86) Independent (183) 21% (39) 79% (144)

A higher percentage of likely voters 30+ years of age (77%) compared with younger voters, 18-30 years of age (65%), plan to reject Measure No. 2.
Measure No. 2 Yes, to approve No, to reject Total 100% (500) 26% (128) 74% (372) 18-30 (76) 36% (27) 65% (49) Age Breakdown 31-45 46-65 (175) (177) 26% 23% (45) (41) 74% 77% (130) (136) 65+ (72) 21% (15) 79% (57)

Among counties, a slightly higher percentage of likely voters in Burleigh and Ramsey counties plan to reject Measure No. 2.
County Breakdown All All counties, Sioux Burleigh Cass Counties excluding Sioux County County County (500) (475) (25)* (63) (116) Yes, to 26% 25% 32% 21% 27% approve (128) (120) (8) (13) (31) 75% 68% 73% No, to 74% 79% (355) (17) (85) reject (372) (50) *Significance testing is unreliable due to the small sample size. Measure No. 2 Grand Forks (42) 24% (10) 76% (32) Ramsey County (5)* 20% (1) 80% (4)* Ward County (41) 34% (14) 66% (27)

100 EAST GRAND SUITE 340 DES MOINES, IOWA 50309-1800 TEL: 515.282.7145 FAX: 515.282.4535 mail@essmanresearch.com www.essmanresearch.com

ESSMAN/RESEARCH

MARKETING RESEARCH THAT WORKS

Why would you vote Yes to abolish property taxes? (Aided. Single response.) Forty-seven percent of the residents who plan to vote yes to abolish property taxes believe the states surplus revenues from other taxes make property taxes unnecessary.
Percent/# of surveyed respondents

States surplus revenues from other taxes make property taxes unnecessary I believe in less government It puts more money in my pocket Other responses

47% / (60) 23% / (30) 20% / (25) 10% / (13)

TAXES ARE OUTDATED. PROPERTY TAXES ARE OUT OF HAND. THEY'RE TO THE POINT NOW TO WHERE PEOPLE ARE LOSING HOMES EASY. IT'S EXTORTION. HALF THE STATE DOESN'T PAY PROPERTY TAXES. I THINK IT WOULD JUST BE EASIER. IT MAKES PEOPLE MORE WILLING TO BUY PROPERTY. TOO MUCH MONEY GOES TO THE SCHOOLS. THEY HAVE FREE REIGN ON THE MONEY. MY PROPERTY TAXES ARE TOO HIGH. I LIVE IN AN AREA WHERE I DON'T PAY FOR PROPERTY TAXES. I DON'T THINK OTHER PEOPLE SHOULD EITHER. FIGURING OUT PROPERTY TAXES ON A NEW HOME WE JUST BUILT WOULD BE OUTRAGEOUS. I REALLY DON'T HAVE ANY REASONS WHATSOEVER TO SPECIFY BECAUSE I DON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND THE REASON OF VOTING. THIS IS MY FIRST YEAR OF VOTING, I REALLY DON'T UNDERSTAND ANY OF IT. I BELIEVE THE TAX SYSTEM IS UNFAIR TO THE SCHOOLS. I THINK IT DEPENDS ON STUDENT POPULATION AND NOT THE POPULATION OF THE COUNTY AND TAXES GENERATED BY IT. MORE PEOPLE CAN AFFORD HOMES WITHOUT PROPERTY TAXES REFUSED (2)

Among party affiliation, a higher percentage of Democrats (65%) than Republicans and Independents (43%) say the states surplus revenues make property taxes unnecessary. A higher percentage of Republicans (35%) believe in less government; whereas a higher percentage of Independents (31%) want more money in their pocket.
Yes, to approve Measure No. 2 States surplus revenues from other taxes make property taxes unnecessary I believe in less government It puts more money in my pocket Total 100% (128) 47% (60) 23% (30) 20% (25) Republican (54) 41% (22) 35% (19) 13% (7) Party Affiliation Democrat (31) 65% (20) 13% (4) 19% (6) Independent (39) 44% (17) 15% (6) 31% (12)

100 EAST GRAND SUITE 340 DES MOINES, IOWA 50309-1800 TEL: 515.282.7145 FAX: 515.282.4535 mail@essmanresearch.com www.essmanresearch.com

ESSMAN/RESEARCH

MARKETING RESEARCH THAT WORKS

Why would you vote No to abolish property taxes? (Aided. Single response.) Fifty-eight percent of the residents who plan to vote no to abolish property taxes say they are unsure how the tax structure will be redone to make up for the lost revenue.
Percent/# of surveyed respondents

Unsure how taxes will be redone to make up for lost revenue. There would be less government control It could cause government to run out of money Other responses

58% / (215) 27% / (102) 11% / (40) 4% / (15)

WE ARE JUST AGAINST IT IN OUR TOWN BECAUSE IT DOESN'T GIVE US AN ADVANTAGE OF LIVING IN A CHEAPER HOUSE. TAXES ARE LINKED TO OTHER PROGRAMS, STATE FUNDED PROGRAMS, PROGRAMS THAT YOU LIKE OR APPROVE. I DON'T KNOW WHAT IT'S ABOUT. IT WOULD TAKE THE MONEY AWAY FROM SMALL COUNTIES AND FOR SCHOOL , FIRE DEPARTMENT , AND POLICE. HOW WILL THEY PAY FOR THE SCHOOL AND FIRE DEPARTMENT AND POLICE IF WE DON'T PAY PROPERTY TAXES? IT JUST NOT A GOOD MEASURE AT THIS TIME. I FEEL LIKE THEY'LL GO AFTER THE SCHOOL SYSTEMS. THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT OF STATE THAT DON'T HAVE TO PAY THE TAXES IF YOU ELIMINATE THEM. I DON'T TRUST THE PEOPLE IN THE LEGISLATURE TO DO WHAT'S RIGHT. I DON'T TRUST ANYBODY BECAUSE THEY ARE GOING TO FIGURE OUT SOME WAY TO SCREW IT UP. IT WON'T HELP THE COMMON MAN. I DON'T KNOW. BECAUSE THERE'S NO WAY THE STATE CAN GET BY WITHOUT HAVING TAXES OF SOME KIND. I'M REALLY UNDECIDED. I THINK THEY'LL JUST PASS MORE TAXES. I WOULD VOTE NO BECAUSE THERE WOULD BE NO RESTRICTIONS ON HOW THE GOVERNMENT USES THE MONEY. REFUSED (3)

Among party affiliation, a higher percentage of Republicans (34%) than Democrats and Independents (23%) believe there will be less local government control if property taxes were abolished.
No, to reject Measure No. 2 Unsure how taxes will be redone to make up lost revenue There would be less local government control It could cause government to run out of money Total 100% (372) 58% (215) 27% (102) 11% (40) Republican (138) 57% (79) 34% (47) 6% (8) Party Affiliation Democrat (86) 58% (50) 22% (19) 16% (14) Independent (144) 58% (83) 24% (35) 13% (18)

100 EAST GRAND SUITE 340 DES MOINES, IOWA 50309-1800 TEL: 515.282.7145 FAX: 515.282.4535 mail@essmanresearch.com www.essmanresearch.com