Fiscal Stability Treaty Referendum Opinion Poll

18th May 2012

Prepared for:

(1) Job No: 01912

MUST BE INCLUDED Methodology and Weighting

RED C interviewed a random sample of 1005 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 14th to 16th May 2012. A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two. Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote. Finally, some people tell RED C that they intend to vote, and have a good past voting record, but say they dont know who they would vote for or refuse to answer the question. Whenever such people say which party they voted for in the last election, RED C ascribe 50% to the party they voted for previously. We have seen from analysis of past elections that this is the most likely outcome and this reallocation tries to overcome the effect of the spiral of silence where voters are do not want to admit who they will vote for. In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO.
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Key Findings
The latest RED C/Paddy Power poll for the Fiscal Stability Treaty sees a relatively stable proportion of voters suggesting they will vote Yes, with the proportion high enough to suggest that Treaty currently remains likely to be passed. However it does suggests a slight shift towards more undecided voters away from the Yes camp, when compared to the last RED C poll a week ago. In todays poll, just under two thirds of the population (59%) claim they will definitely go and vote in the Referendum, with 14% suggesting they will definitely not or are very unlikely to go and vote. RED C poll analysis excludes this 14% as previous analysis suggests they are very unlikely to vote. Half (50%) of all likely voters claim that they will vote yes to ratify the treaty, 31% claim they will vote No and 19% remain undecided. When these undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side secures 62% of the vote and 38% are left voting No. The greatest support for the treaty lies primarily among older, 55+ age groups, higher social grades and those residing in Dublin and ROL. 18-24 year olds and those from Conn/Ulster are most likely no vote supporters and would take some effort to persuade otherwise, however even in these demographics when undecided voters are excluded the treaty would still be passed. Support by party allegiance shows a polarization, with Fianna Fil, Fine Gael and Labour voters getting more likely to vote Yes for the referendum, while Sinn Fein and Independents are more likely to be No vote supporters.
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Likelihood to Vote in Fiscal Stability Treaty Referendum

(Base: All adults 18+/ all adults 18+ likely to vote)

In any one referendum, turnout might be at only around 60% of all eligible to vote. It is important therefore that we control our voting intention questions by how likely people are to vote. RED C ask respondents to say how likely it is that they will go and vote using a ten point scale where 10 means they would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 means they would be certain not to vote. We then exclude anyone who gives a score of 1-3 from our voting intention calculations, as these people will not vote in an election anyway.

1 = Definitely Will Note Vote 10 = Definitely Will Vote

1-3

4-7

8-9

10

14

15

12

59

Unlikely Voters

Possible Voters

Very Likely Voters

Definite Voters

Following charts are based on possible, likely and definite voters.

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Likely vote behaviour towards the European Treaty

(Base: All adults 18+/ all adults 18+ likely to vote)

How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum? %

29th March 12 17th May 12

Treaty Vote Intention (excl Dont Knows) %

29th March 12 17th May 12

Yes in favour No against Dont know

49

50

59

62

33 18

31 41 19 38

Q. European Union country leaders have agreed on a new European Fiscal Stability Treaty in 2012, that would entail greater oversight by the EU over member states budgets. In the upcoming referendum, you will have the option to vote YES in favour of Ireland ratifying the treaty, or NO against Ireland ratifying the treat. How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum?

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Paddy Power Referendum Poll In Context of all RED C polls

(Base: All adults 18+/ all adults 18+ likely to vote)

How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum? %

29th Jan 4th Mar 25th Mar 29th Mar 29th Apr 13th May 18th May 29th Jan

Treaty Vote Intention (excl Dont Knows) %

4th Mar 25th Mar 29th Mar 29th Apr 13th May 18th May

Yes in favour No against Dont know

40 44 49 49 47 53 50

53 60 59 60 58 63 62

36 29

33 33 35 31 31 47 40 41 40 42 37 38

24 26 18 18 18 16 19

Q. European Union country leaders have agreed on a new European Fiscal Stability Treaty in 2012, that would entail greater oversight by the EU over member states budgets. In the upcoming referendum, you will have the option to vote YES in favour of Ireland ratifying the treaty, or NO against Ireland ratifying the treat. How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum?

*March 25th Onwards Includes Question about likelihood to vote (6)

How do you think you would currently vote in the EU Treaty referendum excluding those not likely to vote?
(Base: All adults 18+ excluding those not likely to vote)

Gender

Age

Class

Region

How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum?

Total % 50 31 19

Male % 53 33 14

Female 18-34 % % 48 29 23 44 36 20

35-54 % 49 31 20

55+ % 58 25 17

ABC1 % 57 24 19

C2DE % 41 40 19

F % 70 14 16

Dublin % 53 30 17

Conn/ ROL Munster Ulster % % % 54 28 18 49 31 20 43 35 22

Yes No Dont Know

PARTY SUPPORT How do you think you would currently vote in such a referendum? Total % 50 31 19

Fianna Fail 63 19 18

Fine Gael 77 7 16

Labour 67 21 12

Sinn Fein 10 78 12

Ind. 37 51 12

Undecided 39 25 37

Yes No Dont Know

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How do you think you would currently vote in the EU Treaty referendum excluding Dont Knows and those not likely to vote?
(Base: All adults 18+ excluding those not likely to vote)

Mar 12

May 12 Region

Gender Total % Male % Female % 18-34 %

Age 35-54 % 55+ %

Social Class ABC1 % C2DE % Dublin %

ROL %

Munster Conn/Ulster % %

YES

59 62

61 62

58

52 55 63

55

61 71 69

61 71

55

51 61 64 59 66 60 61

58 55

NO

41 38

39 38

42

37

48

45

45

39 29 31

39 29

45

49 39 36 41 34 40 39

42 45

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How do you think you would currently vote in the EU Treaty referendum excluding Dont Knows and those not likely to vote?
(Base: All adults 18+ excluding those not likely to vote)

Mar 12 Current Party Support

May 12

Total %

Fianna Fail %

Fine Gael %

Labour %

Sinn Fein %

Ind. %

12 27 42

YES

48 59 62 62 77 77 92 88 73 69 76

NO

52 41 38 38 23 23 8 31 24

58

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