Mapping the Seafloor Aids Tsunami; Coastal Ecosystem Monitoring

For map lovers, digital elevation models (DEMs) are the perfect virtual exploration tool. Zoom in to Alaska's King Cove to see how the sea floor drops off just south of the island. Pan over to the Gulf of Mexico to check out the shallows west of Florida. These maps don't just allow for detailed tours. For a couple of years, researchers have used DEMs to monitor tsunami impacts. Now, they're also helping scientists keep an eye on the health of ecosystems. CIRES researchers and colleagues with NOAA's National Geophysical Data The science Center have spent the last few " Mapping the sea years producing 10-meter resolution DEMs of dozens of floor used to predict coastal areas around the tsunami impacts also country, from Hawaii to Maine. prove useful in These are primarily for tsunami mitigation, to serve forecast monitoring and warning programs," said ecosystem. CIRES' Barry Eakins, science lead of the Coastal Science Team producing the models. NOAA's Lisa Taylor directs the team. Emergency managers trying to plan for potential tsunami inundation events need precise elevation information, she said. DEMs can also be used for ecosystem modeling, to predict storm surges associated with hurricanes, to understand coastal upwelling, and to characterize fish habitat, Eakins said. To produce the technical models, Eakins, Taylor, and colleagues use every source of elevation data availablerecent data from sophisticated remote-sensing instrumentation on satellites, airplanes, or boats; or from historic maps produced by federal, state, and local institutions. DEMs are used operationally, in NOAAs Tsunami Forecast and Warning System, and theyre beginning to reach ecosystem managers. CIRES graduate student Jason Caldwell is using DEMs for his Ph.D. research on salmon in the Central Valley Project of California. Caldwell, whose advisor is CIRES Fellow Balaji Rajagopalan, said the projects overall goal is to improve the decision-making tools relied on by water resource and fisheries managers in the Sacramento River Basin, to reduce fish mortality from higher stream temperatures in summer months.

Water forecast 2057: A 50-50 proposition?

Future of western supplies grim, but not unmanageable
As the West warms, a drier Colorado River system could see as much as a 1-in2 chance of fully depleting all of its reservoir storage by mid-century, assuming current management practices continue on course. Thats grim news for the roughly 30 million people who depend on the Colorado River for drinking and irrigation water. A research team, led by CIRES Fellow Balaji Rajagopalan, examined how vulnerable the Colorado River system is to water supply variability and to projected changes in water demand. The team found that through 2026, the risk of fully depleting reservoir storage in any given year remains less than 10 percent under any scenario of climate fluctuation or management alternative. During this period, reservoir storage could even recover from its current low level, about 65 percent of capacity in the summer of 2009. But if climate change results in a 10 percent reduction in the Colorado Rivers average streamflow, the chances of fully depleting reservoir storage will exceed 25 percent by 2057. Streamflows and reservoirs Reservoirs could have too little water to draw from in any given year as streamflows decrease: Flow Reduction 0% 10% 20% Chance of depletion per year after 2057 1-in-13 1-in-4 1-in-2 , threats to water supplies wont be felt immediately, he said. Total storage capacity of reservoirs on the Colorado exceeds 60 million acre feet, almost 4 times the average annual flow on the river, and the two largest reservoirsLake Mead and Lake Powellcan store up to 50 million acre feet of water. As a result, the risk of full reservoir depletion will remain low through 2026, even with a 20 percent stream flow reduction induced by climate change. Between 2026 and 2057, if current management practices continue, the risks of fully depleting reservoir storage would be about 7 times the risk expected otherwise. Implementing more aggressive management practices reducing downstream releases during shortages , for example would lessen the additional

If climate change results in a 20 percent reduction, the chances of fully depleting reservoir storage will exceed 50 percent by 2057, Rajagopalan said. On average, drying caused by climate change would increase the risk of fully depleting reservoir storage nearly ten times more than the risk we expect from population pressures alone, said Rajagopalan. A 50 percent chance in any given year is an enormous risk and huge water management challenge, he said. But even under the most extensive drying scenario