I.B.

Mathematics HL Core: Probability

Index: Please click on the question number you want Question 1 Question 3 Question 5 Question 7 Question 9 Question 11 Question 2 Question 4 Question 6 Question 8 Question 10 Question 12

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Question 1 If A and B are two events such that P(A) = Find a. b.

3 2 3 , P(B) = , and P ( A B ) = 8 3 7

P ( A B)
P (A B)

Determine whether or not events A and B are independent. Click here to read the solution to this question Click here to return to the index

Solution to question 1 a. For events A and B we have:

P ( A B ) = P ( A) + P (B ) P ( A B )
P ( A B ) = P ( A) + P (B ) P ( A B )
= 2 3 3 103 + = 3 8 7 168

b.

P (A B) =

P (A B) P (B )

103 103 = 168 = 2 112 3

103 3 , then events A and B are not independent. 112 8

Now as P ( A B ) P ( A ) i.e.

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Question 2 If events A and B are such that they are independent and P ( A ' ) = 0.8 , P ( B ) = 0.4 find a. b.

P ( A B) P ( A B)

Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Give a reason for your answer. Click here to read the solution to this question Click here to return to the index

Solution to question 2 a. For event A

P ( A ) = 1 P ( A ' ) = 1 0.8 = 0.2

For independent events A and B we have

P ( A B ) = P ( A) P (B ) = ( 0.2 )( 0.4 ) = 0.08

b.

P ( A B ) = P ( A) + P (B ) P ( A B ) = 0.2 + 0.4 0.08 = 0.52

As P ( A B ) 0 , then events A and B are not mutually exclusive. Click here to read the question again Click here to return to the index

Question 3 If events A and B are independent and P ( A ) =

3 2 , P ( A B ) = , find P ( B ) . 10 5

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Solution to question 3 Now for events A and B

P ( A B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) P ( A B ) and as A and B are independent P ( A B ) = P ( A) P (B )

We have:
P ( A B ) = P ( A) + P (B ) P ( A) P (B ) 2 3 3 = + P (B ) P (B ) 5 10 10 2 3 7 = + P (B ) 5 10 10
7 1 1 P (B ) = P (B ) = 10 10 7

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Question 4 In a university entrance examination 65% of the students are female. It is found that 7% of the male students and 8% of the female students passed the examination. a. Find the probability that a student selected at random passed the entrance examination. If a student is selected at random and passed the entrance examination, what is the probability that the student is male?

b.

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Solution to question 4 Let M be the event that a student is male and E be the event that the student passed the examination. Note the M means the student is female and E, the student did not pass the examination. First draw a tree diagram
P ( M E ) = ( 0.35 )( 0.07 ) = 0.0245

P ( E ) = 0.07

P ( M ) = 0.35

P ( E ' ) = 0.93

P ( M E ' ) = ( 0.35 )( 0.93 ) = 0.3255

P ( E ) = 0.08 P ( M ' ) = 0.65 P ( E ' ) = 0.92

P ( M ' E ) = ( 0.65 )( 0.08 ) = 0.052

P ( M ' E ' ) = ( 0.65 )( 0.92 ) = 0.598

a.

P (Passed) = P ( E ) = P ( M P ) + P ( M ' P )
= ( 0.35 )( 0.07 ) + ( 0.65 )( 0.08 ) = 0.0245 + 0.052 = 0.0765

b.

P (M P ) = =

P (M P ) P (P )

0.0245 0.0765 245 = 765 49 = 153

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Question 5 A random variable X has a probability distribution as shown in the table x P ( X = x) Find: a. b. c. d. k 2 0.1 3 k 4 0.2 5 0.15 6 0.3

E(X)
E(X2)

(The standard deviation)

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Solution to question 5 a. b.

k = 1 0.1 0.2 0.15 0.3 = 0.25

E(X) =

xP ( X = x )
all x

= 2 ( 0.1) + 3 ( 0.25 ) + 4 ( 0.2 ) + 5 ( 0.15 ) + 6 ( 0.3 ) = 4.3

c.
E X2 =

( )

x P ( X = x)
2 all x

= 4 ( 0.1) + 9 ( 0.25 ) + 16 ( 0.2 ) + 25 ( 0.15 ) + 36 ( 0.3 ) = 20.4

d. First we have to calculate Var ( X )
Var ( X ) = E ( X 2 ) 2 , where = E 2 ( X )
= 20.4 4.32 = 20.4 18.49 = 1.91

= Var ( X ) = 1.91 1.38 to 3 s.f.

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Question 6 A discrete random variable X can take on two values only 4 and 8. If E ( X ) = 5.5 , write the probability density function in table form. Click here to read the solution to this question Click here to return to the index

Solution to question 6 First form a probability density function in the form of a table a and b to be calculated. x P ( X = x) 4 a 8 b

Now a + b = 1 and E ( X ) = 4a + 8b = 5.5 Solving simultaneously we have

a + b = 1 1. 4a + 8b = 5.5 2.

giving a = 0.625 and b = 0.375 Rewriting the probability density function in table form

x P ( X = x)

4 0.625

8 0.375

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Question 7 a. b. A die is thrown six times find the probability of throwing at least three sixes. Find how times the die must be thrown so that the probability that there is at least one six is greater than 0.95

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Solution to question 7 a.
1 1 5 and q = 1 p = 1 = . Let X 6 6 6 be the random variable the number of times a six is obtained. Therefore 1 X Bin ( n, p ) X Bin 6, , as the die is thrown 6 times i.e. n = 6 . 6

Let obtaining a 6 be a success. Then p =

5 1 P ( X = x ) = Cx q p = Cx 6 6 We require the P ( X 3 ) = P ( X = 3 ) + P ( X = 4 ) + P ( X = 5 ) + P ( X = 6 )
n nx x 6

6 x

5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 = 6C3 + 6C4 + 6C5 + 6C6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 125 25 5 = 20 + 15 46656 + 6 46656 + 46656 46656 2500 375 30 1 = + + + 46656 46656 46656 46656 2906 1453 = = 46656 23328 b.
1 Now X Bin n, and we need to find n such that P ( X 1) > 0.95 6 P ( X 1) = 1 P ( X = 0 )

1 P ( X = 0 ) > 0.95
n 0

5 1 1 C0 > 0.95 6 6
n

5 1 > 0.95 6
5 0.05 > and taking logs we have: 6
n
n

log ( 0.05 ) 5 5 log ( 0.05 ) > log log ( 0.05 ) > n log n > (Reversing the 5 6 6 log 6 inequality sign as dividing by a negative inequality) n > 16.4 .
Therefore the die must be thrown 17 times.

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Question 8 Bags of flour are filled using a machine. The time taken T seconds is a random variable and has a probability density function ( t ) where

2kt ( t ) = kt ( 4 t ) 0 Find
a. b. c.

0t 2 2<t 4 otherwise

E (T ) P (1 T 3 )

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Solution to question 8 a.

As T is a random variable then

all t

(t ) dt = 1
2 4

t2 t3 k t dt + k ( 4t t ) dt = 1 k + k 2t 2 = 1 32 0 2 20 64 8 16 22 3 2k + k 32 8 + = 1 2k + k = 1 k = 1 k = 3 3 3 3 22

writing out the probability function we have:

3 14 t 3 (t ) = t ( 4 t ) 28 0 0t 2 2<t 4 otherwise

Now sketch the function y

3 7

y=

3 t 14

y=

3 t (4 t ) 28

b.

E (T ) =

all t

t ( t ) dt =

3 14

2 0

t ( t ) dt +
2 3

3 28

t ( 4t t ) dt
4 2 2 2 4

3 = 14 =

2 0

3 t dt + 28
2

4 2

4 3 3 3 t3 ( 4t t ) dt = 14 t3 + 28 43 t4 0 2

3 8 3 256 32 1 15 3 + 28 3 64 3 + 4 = 7 = 2 7 14

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c.

We require P (1 T 3 ) . The probability is the area under the curve between

1 t 3 , see the diagram below

y= 3 t 14 y= 3 t (4 t ) 28

We have to integrate in two parts 3 P (1 T 3 ) = 14 =

3 t dt + 28 1

3 2

3 t2 3 2 t3 4t t ) dt = + ( 2t 14 2 1 28 32
2

3 1 3 8 3 3 3 11 5 2 2 + 28 18 9 8 + 3 = 14 2 + 28 3 = 7 14

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Question 9

The weight of a group of students in a university is a random variable X with the following probability density function.
2 2 sin x 0 x ( x ) = 0 otherwise

Calculate, giving your answers in exact form:

a. b. c. d.

the mode

E(X)
E X2

( )

Var ( X )

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Solution to question 9
2 2 sin x 0 x First sketch the probability function ( x ) = . 0 otherwise
y

a.

y= 2

sin2 x

The mode is the maximum part of the curve, which from the graph happens at x= . 2
b.

By the symmetry of the curve E ( X ) = E(X2) =

c.

all x

x 2 ( x ) dx =

x 2 sin2 x dx .
0

Using integration by parts we have

u = x2 du = 2 x dv = sin2 x v = sin2 x dx =

1 2

(1 cos 2x ) dx = 2 x 2 sin 2x
1

E(X

)=

2 1 1 x sin x dx = x 2 x sin2 x 2 2 0
2 2

2x 1 x sin2 x dx 2 2

2 x 3 1 2 2 1 = x sin2 x x 2 x sin2 x dx 2 4 0 0 2 3 x 3 1 x sin2 x dx = + 2 3 0 2 0

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Using integration by parts again for

x sin 2 x dx
0

u=x du = 1

dv = sin2x 1 v = sin2x dx = cos 2 x 2

2 3 3 1 1 1 E(X ) = + ( x ) cos 2 x + 2 3 2 2 0 2

cos 2 x dx

2 3 1 + [ sin2 x ] 0 6 4 4

2 3 = 6 4 2 1 = 3 2 2 2 3 = 6
d.
Var ( X ) = E X 2 E 2 ( X ) = =

( )

2
3

1 2 2
2

Note: = E ( X ) =

12

1 6 = 2 12

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Question 10

If X is a continuous random variable with a probability density function ( x ) , where

1 2x 2 1 ( x ) = x + 3 6 0 0 x 1 1 x 4 otherwise

a. b. c. d.

Sketch y = ( x ) Find the cumulative distribution function F ( x ) and sketch y = F ( x ) Find the median Find P ( 0.5 x 3 )

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Solution to question 10 a.

Sketching
1 2x 2 1 ( x ) = x + 3 6 0
y
y= 1 x 2

0 x 1 1 x 4 otherwise

y =

1 2 x+ 6 3

b.

The cumulative distribution function F ( x ) is calculated in terms of t and written out in terms of x.
F (t ) =

t 0

( x ) dx

Consider 0 x 1 F (t ) =

t
0

x2 x t2 dx = = 2 4 0 4

Note: F (1)

(1) =
4

1 4

Consider 1 x 4
1 F (t ) = + 4 =

1 x 2 2x 1 t 2 2t 1 2 x 2 6 + 3 dx = 4 + 12 + 3 = 4 + 12 + 3 + 12 3 1 1
t

t 2 2t 1 + 12 3 3

Check F ( 4 )

( 4) =

12

2 ( 4) 3

1 =1 3

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Now rewriting F ( x ) , the cumulative function in terms of x.

x2 4 2 2x 1 x F (x) = + 12 3 3 1 0 x 1 1 x 4 x4

Sketching y = F ( x )

y 1
y= x2 4 y=

y =1

x 2 2x 1 + 12 3 3

c.

We need to find F ( m ) = 0.5 , where m is the median Now F (1) =

1 , therefore the median is the range 1 x 4 4 m 2 2m 1 1 m 2 2m 5 + = + = 0 m 2 8m + 10 = 0 m = 1.55 12 3 3 2 12 3 6

d.

P ( 0.5 X 3 ) = F ( 3 ) F ( 0.5 ) 1 ( 0.5 ) + 12 3 3 4 41 = 48

(3) =

2 (3)

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Question 11

A sample of 1000 breakfast cereal boxes, have a mean weight of 250 grams and a standard deviation of 2.5 grams. If a box is found to have a mass less than 245 grams or more than 255 grams the box is rejected and sent back, to be emptied and refilled. Find the number of boxes that have to be refilled if the weight of the cereal boxes is normally distributed.

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Solution to question 11

Let X be the random variable the weight of the boxes of cereal. Then X N ( , 2 ) X N ( 250, 2.5 2 ) . and Z N ( 0, 1) where Z =
X

245 250 255 250 We require P ( X < 245 or X > 255 ) = P Z < or Z > 2.5 2.5 P ( Z < 2 or Z > 2 ) = 1 ( 2 ) + 1 (2)

= 2 2 (2) = 0.0455
The number of boxes = ( 0.0455 )(1000 )
=1 = 2.5

= 45.5
Approximately 46 boxes are rejected.
245 250 255

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Question 12

The error X in measuring steel rods produced by a small engineering company, is normally distributed, with mean and standard deviation . It is known that 36.32% have an error less than 25nm and 3.22% have an error greater than 30.5nm.
a. b.

Find the mean and standard deviation . Find the range symmetrical about the mean within which 80% of the rods lie.

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Solution to question 12 a.

Let X be the random variable the errors in measuring the rods . Then X N ( , 2 ) . We know that

P ( X < 25 ) = 0.3632

P ( X > 30.5 ) = 0.0322

=1

=1

-z 0 25

z 30.5

P ( Z < z ) = 0.3632 1 ( z ) = 0.3632

P ( Z > z ) = 0.0322 1 ( z ) = 0.0322

( z ) = 1 0.3632 ( z ) = 0.6368 z = 0.35 z = 0.35

( z ) = 1 0.0322 ( z ) = 0.9678 z = 0.85

Forming two simultaneous equations by De-standardising (i.e. X = Z + ) we have 25 = 0.35 + 1. 35 = 1.85 + 2. Solving we have = 25.875, = 2.5

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b.

Considering the diagram below we can see ( z ) = 0.9

0.9 0.1

Using linear interpolation 1.28 0.8997 z 0.9 1.29 0.9015

0.1

z 1.28 1.29 1.28 = 0.9 0.8997 0.9015 0.8997

-z 0 z 22.7 25.875 29.1

z = 1.28 +

1.29 1.28 ( 0.9 0.8997 ) 0.9015 0.8997 = 1.2816

De standardising we have

( ) X = 2.5 (1.2816 ) + 25.875 = 29.07916

Therefore 22.7 < X < 29.1 .

X = 2.5 1.2816 + 25.875 = 22.67083

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