Hidden Treasure*

Truths about 2012

o see whats in front of ones nose is a constant struggle, said George Orwell. This implies a political attitude that can be observed in some countries in the face of a crisis. What comes to mind are the perennial problems of poverty, food scarcity, and financial debt crises. The first two are typical problems of poor countries, while the third is mostly confined to rich countries or those with complex economies. Rich or poor, though, one can feel the inability to deal with truth at the worst of times as clear for all to see, together with historys tendency to repeat inconvenient truths (such as debt problems). Indeed, recognizing the presence of these issues right in front of us is a struggle and a skill, if not a gift that we have yet to receive. Common sense tells us that ignoring or pretending that problems do not exist does not stop them from existing. In fact, ignoring them only makes things worse. I have always been telling my staff and family, If you dont own your problems and emotions in a tough situation, those problems and emotions will own you. At the onset of 2012, a refreshing resolution would be to see the truth that stares us in the face, and deal with it. Scarcity in varying forms is the single truth that we constantly need to confront this year, so that we stretch our limited resources and maximize happiness within a limited time. Since rice feeds half of the world, it is one crop that we dont want to be scarce because we dont want half of the globe to go hungry. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecast global rice trade to be down to 33.8 million tons in 2012 from 34.3 million tons in 2011. According to the FAO Rice Market Monitor (November 2011, vol. XIV, issue no. 4), international rice trade was at an all-time high as it went up by 1 million tons because of the increase in Asian demand for rice imports. In 2012, this may not be the case because of the low import demand from Asia, following the decline in Thai exports and Asias high domestic stocks (particularly in India). I see this New Year in a positive light, though, and feel that rice trade will be put in balance by promising imports from India, Pakistan, and Myanmar, back to back with demand from China, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

From a rice traders perspective, scarcity will be a problem if we underestimate the needs of our growing population, ignore the drastic effects of climate change, undervalue rice production in a backdrop that includes the production of other grains, fail to distribute rice surpluses, and fail to take advantage of the benefits of rice research and development. Also, one needs to realize the value of rice trade, of how important it is in compensating for the lack of supplies in certain areas. Divisions throughout the world, in the philosophy that governs society, in finances, in available resources, and in terms of food and availability, are yet another truth that one cannot ignore. The truth is that the number of hungry on the globe is much greater than what many in the political realm want to admit, because to admit this means to dedicate efforts for a solution, but this is not the case; hence, reluctance to accept the reality. The intellectual divide is further widened in a world that is hampered by increasingly limited opportunities for success. While computers help bridge the gap, not everyone in the world has access to electricity. Another great divide is motivation. The truth is that certain nations do not want to work at a pace of efficiency that comes naturally to other nations, and yet these nations want to have the same amount of benefits compared to what has been painstakingly built over many years of exhaustive effort. This is a reality that so few want to talk about as it reveals a lack of responsibility. Frankly, any entitlement-based society is not good because it reduces efficiency and clouds the natural truth that rewards should largely go to those who created growth in the first place. The world is beset with many problems and the key lies in being truthful about problems, as this opens doors to solutions. So, my prayer as 2012 starts is that it will be a year of wise reflection in which our hearts open to the truth.

Jeremy Zwinger Publisher

* The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Rice Research Institute. Rice Today January-March 2012

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