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Marcus Callahan February 10th 2012 Test 1 A dyadic conflict spiral is a problem between two countries that have

found themselves in an ever increasing level on conflict. This conflict most likely started with a simple rivalry between the two countries that has escalated significantly. This ties into power transition theory in that often times the conflict spiral is pushed along by a weaker opponent who wishes to change the status quo, whose power suddenly increases to the point of being a threat to the stronger countries. The more quickly this happens, the more of a threat they are perceived to be. This is because rising states have every reason to go to war once they believe they have a chance at defeating the higher powers. The power shift does not need to be a true power shift; the perception of a power shift is all two countries need to begin moving toward war. Either side can, and will, go to war when it seems like the best time for that country to begin. Whether on the perceived higher side of its own decline, where it believes that the situations will never be better than that moment to engage the enemy; or waiting for your own perceived rising power to surpass the declining powers strength enough that you are comfortable attacking. In addition, the change in the relationships draws a lot of worry from the opposite and other countries around the world. This will either lead to balancing and counter balancing from both sides in what amounts to an arms race, or cause the rising state to begin threatening the declining state, bringing on a huge potential for a conflict spiral and eventual war. Conflict spirals tend to come from one the two countries placing their own troops on alert or suddenly building weapons. The opposite country tends to see these actions as preparing for war, and therefore they begin taking

their own precautions. However, this leads the first country to see the same thing leading them to step their production up and so on. In the time leading up to world war one, the power balance in Europe had a sudden and sweeping shift toward Germany. The nations that make up Germany today were able to create a single unified Germany under the leadership of the Prussian government. The newly formed Germany was much more powerful that the nations that came together to form it and it was able to reasonably compete economically, socially and militarily on a global scale. In fact, Germany was able to double the gross national product of Britain, one of the largest economies in the world, 30 years after its creation. Soon after that, they proved themselves to be the most militarily powerful country in Europe. This, of course, terrified Germanys neighbors since any sort of German expansion would come directly from the previous most powerful nations in Europe. As Germany was coming to power so quickly, it began to dwarf the rise of other countries such as the entire Russia Empire. Germany began to see the surrounding countries as potential enemies, and it viewed itself as lacking a defense from blockade or along any of their borders. They believed that Russia would soon become a great super power as they had one of the largest populations in the region and were in the process of becoming highly industrialized. In a few short years, they would be far more than Germany could handle. This sudden power balance shift helped to spur the conflict spiral that eventually descended into World War One and these perceptions on both sides helped to fuel much of the war. The power in the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires dramatically changed during this time as well. The Ottoman Empire was being ripped apart by rebel forces with enthusiastic help from other countries such as Austria and Russia. It was seen as a declining power with land that would be easily taken from them and annexed into the surrounding countries. In the Austro-

Hungarian Empire, they were facing many of the same problems. However, rather than being truly in decline, they simply werent growing as fast as the great powers of Europe at the time. They were living outside of their means after their last war and the military was weak and ineffectual. They used out of date weapons and could not afford to bring up any more power than they already had. So while they held a great power status, they were completely unable to back that up with any actual power. Finally, when the people of the Ottoman Empire began their rebellion, it spurred other rebellions of Southern Slavic people including in the AustroHungarian Empire, weakening them further. France was unable to continue the great military prowess that they had demonstrated for so long for many reasons. They had not kept up with the rest of the world in terms of industry and remained a greatly agricultural nation. This led to a relative decline in comparison with the surrounding countries that had chosen to move along. As a result, France had a far smaller economy than Germany, and produced no more than 40% of what Germany produced. They also did not grow in population, while the population of Germany exploded. This allowed Germany to hold a more powerful military force twice the size of Frances military as well. Britain had always been considered the most dominant force in the world, but that position had been waning for quite some time up to this point. The other countries were passing it in new industries, which is where Britains power rested. Germany was increasing production of these new technologies much more quickly than Britain, which also allowed Germanys army to pass them several times over in sheer numbers. When this began happening, the continents greatest power was suddenly not significantly more powerful than any other nation in the continent, changing the power structure in Europe to a multi-polar stage where Germany was able to shine quite a bit more than the surrounding countries would have like.

On the whole, this is what began the conflict spiral into World War One, this series of events that caused the entire country to suddenly be in danger of war with Germany when they reached their full potential. Each critical point that each country went through caused them to fear Germany and its allies more. With Germany becoming so powerful as well, they feared more what would happen if they waited for Germany to become the superpower that it had the potential of being. In the Six Day War, relations between the Jewish and Muslims peoples in this region had always been rocky, therefore it is arguable the initial part of the conflict spiral for this and all wars between the two sides was with Isaac and Ishmael since they both hold claims to the land and are the descendants of the two sides. Later, there was a surge of ethno-nationalistic groups that pushed for the expulsion of the opposite side of the conflict. This caused additional mistrust and dislike between the two groups, further pushing along the spiral toward violence and conflict. While that the ethno-religious issues constitute a large part of the core of the ongoing fight between the two peoples that is not the cause in its entirety. Territory makes up quite a bit of the conflict spiral on both sides. As I said both groups lay claim to the same piece of land, which creates a problem when the land is so very important to the two groups. Neither group will allow the land to simply fall out of their control without fighting back. Initially the conflict was between the population of the area and the incoming Jewish immigrants, but that was widened to include the surrounding people as well once they became established in the area. The displaced people petitioned the surrounding governments for protection and help in the recovery of their country. This allowed the surrounding governments to help their own regimes by attacking and criticizing the Jewish immigrants. Of course, this forced the immigrants to move to protect themselves from the

possibility of war between the two. When the surrounding countries saw this they prepared themselves as well. Other countries came in to help the situation to end peacefully, but they were essentially seen as all but unwelcome invaders and could do little to change the situation. The two sides saw each other as invaders on the same land, which led to a large amount posturing and threatening between the two before the Israelis suddenly erupted into a war that neither had seen coming even a month before the beginning of it. The introduction of the Jewish immigrants displaced the Palestinians, who then went to the other countries for help in getting their land back. This set off the other side of the conflict spiral with both sides then working toward protecting themselves from the other side. The dyadic spirals role in the cause of war is a complex one but essentially it creates a situation in which both countries must make sure to keep up with their potential enemy. In order to make sure that they are not destroyed when the other side takes the initiative to attack, both sides must watch the other closely. When they do this they, every movement by the opposite country to increase the size of their army is viewed as a step to war. Every time the enemy builds a new weapon, the opposite side must do the same to not be outgunned when war does eventually break out. However the first side views this as a threat, causing them to move forward in their own production. The dyadic spiral causes both to be on edge and ready for war at any time, which makes them more likely to attack the other in order to have the advantage when they feel they are stronger than the other.

Part 2 Rivalries create a multitude of problems on the global scale since two countries locked in a rivalry can so easily begin a war when they find the advantage to be on their side. A rivalry between two countries will lead to a conflict more often than not even if other countries step in to try to settle the issue peacefully. The situation in the Middle East between the Palestinian nation and the Jewish nation is one such example. These two sides have been warring for an incredibly long time; all the way back to the two sons of Abraham both believing that God had blessed them with this land. This creates a problem when two sides are locked in a battle where both sides believe that they are right in their endeavor with the fervor only religious problems mixed with territory issues can create. In the six day war, the two sides exploded into a battle that neither knew was about to occur even one month before. They tried to work out peace in the region many times but the distain for the opposite side was too great from either front. This distain was a huge catalyst in the continuing conflict between the two countries. They were almost completely unable to come to any sort of agreement that they could both be happy with due to both the fact that they were unwilling to take anything but everything that they felt that they were entitled to, and the hatred that they felt for each other led them to not consider the other sides claim in any way whatsoever. The rivalry also helped to create the conditions of war by splitting the two peoples both from each other, and in their own factions. Certain groups on both sides were much more willing than the average person to fight for what they believed in. These groups were willing to essentially massacre the entire other side in order to rid the world of what they believed to be a disease of the region. Since the creation of these on one side would help to create another one

that was at least as devoted on the other side, fervent sub factions would lead the charge on each other with terroristic attacks and kidnappings. These would result in defensive moves from the currently victimized country and, in turn, creating conflict spirals from which they would be unlikely to escape without war or at least some conflict between the two. Should the rivalry have been handled differently before the six days war ever occurred it is unlikely that the war would have ever occurred, rather being handled through other less violent terms if at all possible. If there was any warning of the war before it happened, other countries almost definitely would have stepped in to try to solve some of the problems before they occurred, especially considering the multitude of outside countries that had helped create, and therefore had a reason to protect Israel and their interests. Israel attacked the surrounding countries out of a need to defend themselves through a preemptive strike to make sure that they were able to defeat the enemy. They felt they were vulnerable to strikes from the enemies surrounding them so they took the advantage of striking first with a surprise attack and destroying much of the advantages that the other countries were creating. This being the case, assuming that the conditions in the region were at least tolerable between the two sides; there would be no reason for Israel to feel the same way that it did on that day. If they felt safe, it is likely that they would have simply continued their own existence rather than going out and instigating a war. The factions within the Israeli military would have been a ridiculous minority if they existed at all given the changed political front. The conditions in the Middle East included a terrible rivalry between the Jewish people and the Arab people. They both felt that they were entitled by God to the exact same piece of land, and therefore were completely unwilling to compromise on any part of the agreement. As such Israel began to feel threatened by the growing number of Palestinian friendly countries that

surrounded it. The rivalry between the two sides forced the Israelis to consider that every country around them an enemy that would need to be dealt with once the time was right, eventually leading to the six day war. The rivalry held quite a lot of power in creating the situation that would lead to this issue, including spurring the creation of factions on both sides of the turmoil calling for the eradication of the opposite side, creating a condition of hatred between the two sides and creating an arena were the surrounding countries could help to strengthen their own regimes through conflict with the Israelis. If the rivalry conditions were different, even to a point where the two sides were able to tolerate the presence of the other without waiting to the bigger backing country to turn its back, the entire situation would have been vastly different, likely allowing the two sides to come to a peaceful resolution rather than going to war over it.