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REPORT ON THE FINANCIAL POSITION AND PERFORMANCE OF ROLLS ROYCE PLC AND COSTAIN PLC FOR THE YEAR 2011
Plagiarism declaration: The attached coursework is my own work and all references contained within it have been correctly cited and the original authors acknowledged. Student: Ogle, Paul 25 May, 2012 (K1059295)
Introduction
The processes involved in building a solar energy network for 10,000 households in the UK are very complex. A project of such magnitude has numerous potential adverse risk factors, however corresponding positive environmental, financial and sociological benefits. This project is unique in its concept, particularly for such a northern latitude, therefore an effective project management planning process is demanded. Breaking down the complexity of this project into definable tasks and measurable accomplishments is necessary to improve the chances of successful completion. The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is an effective example of a technique used to handle a program of such scale and will be described in this paper. There are also a number of risks associated with the planning, construction and operational processes of this massive solar installation program. The recent UK political uncertainty regarding renewable solar energy, coupled with the aforementioned factors, means these risks must be measured and analysed to determine firstly, whether project actually goes ahead and secondly, how they can be mitigated. This report will therefore initially define and evaluate the Risk Management Strategy for this solar power network.
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Med Med Med High Low Low Low High Med Very low Low High High Med v.low High V.High High Low Med Low
Significant Catastrophic Catastrophic Significant Medium V.high Low. med Catastrophic Negligible Critical Critical V. High Marginal Significant Significant Negligible Catastrophic Catastrophic Catastrophic Negligible Negligible
24 25 26 27 28
Noise Logistical complexity in supplying reliable electricity Significant exchange rate fluctuations Archaeological find during construction Fuel price drop significantly
Table 1: Details for the PI Matrix Diagram Next, an evaluation of the recognized risks needs to be performed to establish what the likelihood of them occurring is and what the severity is of the impacts on those parties affected. This evaluation is probably the most significant in the entire project planning process, as this will decide whether the project actually takes place. The risk factors can be clearly presented in a Probability, Impact (PI) Matrix Diagram as shown below: Very High 0.9 High 0.7 Medium 0.5 Low 0.3 Very Low 0.1 Negligible 18 0.045 14 0.035 11, 22 14, 15 0.09 22 0.07 27 0.05 9 0.03 18, 27 0.01 Marginal 24 0.18 6, 25 0.14 25, 16 0.1 7, 26 0.06 12, 17, 28 0.02 Significant 0.2 19 0.36 2 0.28 3 0.2 21, 16 0.12 13 0.04 Critical 0.4 1 0.72 10, 20 0.56 4 0.4 5 0.24 8 0.08 Catastrophic 0.8
23, 24
28
Note: Upper number in each cloured box represents the risk category from table 1. The lower number is the overall risk factor, multiplied by the probability factor and the impact factor. Where the risk factor is 0.2, this then needs urgent attention. 0.08 to 0.2 requires regular attention and 0.08 needs merely to be regularly monitored.
The probability figures and ratings themselves are critical in the effectiveness of this PI matrix. Under or over estimating a risks impact, or the probability of it occurring affects the significance of this technique greatly. Hence, accuracy is key to getting the most out of this system.
Once the PI Matrix is refined, the most critical tasks need to be reviewed and then the implementation of planning processes as mediation measures. The most critical zones in a PI matrix is the upper right hand red zone, or those tasks with an overall rating higher than a defined limit. For this project, this level has been set at 0.2. These things are most likely to occur with the most disastrous consequences. Risk reduction measures for some of the most critical risks in Table 1 could be undertaken in the following ways: Reliability is the biggest issue with solar energy in the UK. Therefore, the system needs to be supplemented with mains grid connection as a smart grid operation system i.e. balancing variances in power production and demand. A worrying study by Boyle (2008) suggests domestic applications for domestic solar PV in Ireland is not currently feasible, even with government support. Therefore, a balance will need to be reached between the types of solar energy types to be used. Concentrated solar heating for example is not suited to the UK (EGM202, 2011). Storage mechanisms are not yet effective enough to allow an independent solar energy system for stand-alone, grid-free systems of anywhere near 10,000 houses. However, integrating solar heating is an effective means of storing the suns energy and reducing electricity consumption. Without financial backing, this project will not go ahead. Government and local unwillingness to support this project because of misguided information will also have the same result. In-depth research and reporting on estimated energy and water heating production needs to be completed to assure the feasibility of this project and earn investor trust. Major logistical hold-ups will ruin the project companys reputation and also reduce the chances of the operations completion. Contingencies such as back-up supply sources and large scale storage facilities could reduce the chances problems eventuating.
Review and updates of the planning processes must be continuous before, during and after project completion. Those with higher risk values clearly take priority in review regularity.
Breakdown
Structure
(WBS)
should
be
Potentially unknown variables and high-risk areas should have been defined and accounted for since the risk management process forces a closer analysis of the entire project. The risk management system allows the decision tree technique to be used to determine whether this project is ultimately feasible. Providing this is the case, a pooling of all the work and tasks and jobs needs to be categorized. The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is an effective method grouping together all such tasks into a diagrammatic, flow-chart form and provides a platform to initialise more detailed planning systems such as MS Project.
References
Boyle, F (2008). Domestic applications of solar PV systems in Ireland: The reality of their economic viability. Ept of mech engr, Dublin Institute of Technology, Dublin. EGM202 (2011). Project Management EGM202, Kingston University . Handout and online resources made available by lecturers during renewable energy engineering postgrad course; Lung, Robson & Yeghiazarian (21-25 Nov, 2011). Viewable at: https://studyspace.kingston.ac.uk/webapps/portal/frameset.jsp?tab_tab_group _id=_11_1&url=%2Fwebapps%2Fblackboard%2Fexecute%2Flauncher%3Fty pe%3DCourse%26id%3D_5883892_1%26url%3D
Other Resources Bachy, G (1997). What to be implemented at the early stage of a large scale project. Elsevier publication, University of Helsinki. Komendantova & Patt (2005). Perception of risks in renewable energy projects: thecase of concentrated solar power in north Africa. International Institute for applied systemy and analysis, Austria