CB RICHARD ELLIS

Metro Manila
www.cbre.com.ph Fourth Quarter 2011

PPP to Spur Growth in the Property Sector

Quick Stats
GDP Growth (4Q2011) GNI Growth (4Q2011) Forex (Feb12) wtd avg 91-Tbill (Mar12) 5-year Tbond Rate (Jan 11) 7-year Tbond Rate (Feb12) Inflation (Feb12) Phisix (29 Feb12) close 3.7% 3.5% PhP42.66: US$1 2.148% 4.674% 5.00% 2.70% 4,897.65

Hot Topics
Low office vacancy rates sustained on the back of strong expansionary demand Demand for luxury condominiums supported by growth in expatriate population High consumer spending spurs further expansion of retail brands Lease rates stable on the back of weaker export demand in billion PhP

THE Philippine Government capital expenditures such as new infrastructures, schools and other institutional facilities are beneficial to the Philippine economy both in the short and long term. These add to the economic benefits of foreign direct investments (FDI) into the country year-on-year. However, FDI inflows are not constant due to its dependence on the global economic situation. Thus, there is pressure on the Philippine Government to compensate this even if it entails deficit spending in order to sustain the growth of the economy. The Aquino Administration was criticized for the dismal performance of the economy in 2011. Low capital spending of the government as shown by the low deficit of P197.8 billion resulted to a dismal GDP growth of 3.7 percent compared to the 7.3 growth in 2010 where the countrys deficit reached to a high level at P314.5 billion. Thus, after fixing the leaks in concerned government agencies, public spending is expected to boost the economy this 2012.
0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 2000 2001 2002 2003

signed Executive Order 8 on September 8, 2010, creating the PPP Center to accelerate financing, construction, and operation of infrastructure projects under his administration. The PPP is a strategic move to address the lack of funds by the national government and the need for capital expenditure to stimulate economic growth. The Philippines operates on deficit spending given relatively low income generation from taxes and tariffs. With the private sector investments, the PPP would contribute to a faster economic growth which translates to additional tax revenues from the property sector. Private sector participation in infrastructure development will fill in the gap brought about by low savings and low investment. Infrastructure projects of the government will result in more jobs, higher incomes, and lower structural inflation. Consequently, the construction industry will be the immediate and primary beneficiary of

-64.8 -134.2 -147.0 -210.7 -199.9 -187.1 -146.8

-12.4

-68.1 -197.8 -298.5 -314.5

* Executive Order 8 reorganizes

and renames the Build-Operate and Transfer (BOT) Center to the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center of the Philippines. It also transfers the BOT Center, which is under the Department of Trade and Industry, to the National Economics and Development Authority (NEDA). Financing, construction and operation of government infrastructure projects are expected to speed up with its implementation.

Philippine Budget Deficit

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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The Private-Public Partnership (PPP) program being pursued by the Aquino administration can increase the countrys nominal gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 3.8 percent in the medium term if all the public-private partnership projects were fully implemented on time. President Aquino

PPP projects which will greatly influence the growth and expansion of the PH Property Sector. According to the PPP Center, the Philippine Government intends to bid out eight to sixteen PPP projects this year continued on page 7
2011, CB Richard Ellis Philippines, Inc.

MarketView Metro Manila

OFFICE MARKET
Office Stats Business District Makati Fort Bonifacio Vacancy Rate % 4.47 4.16 New Supply in 4Q2011 11,925 Upcoming Supply in 1Q2012 93,523 Average Average Average Asking Lease Asking Lease Asking Lease Rate 4Q2011 Rate 3Q2011 Rate 4Q2010 840 833 780 697 695 651

Ortigas
Alabang Quezon City Occupied Space
800

5.68
3.84 2.33

17,058
17,000 -

9,241

537
543 519

549
546 517

542
481 492

600 GLA (in '000 sqm)

400

200

Makati Fort Bonifacio Alabang QC Ortigas

The office market ended the year on a high note as rental recovery was evident across major business districts on the back of the strong demand for both traditional and BPO spaces in Metro Manila. Vacancy levels has been on a consistent decline due to the increased absorption of office spaces across major business districts. Leasing market in the CBD and Ortigas was primarily driven by expanding multinational companies and local firms. On the other hand, the continuous growth of the BPO industry has been benefitting the business districts of Fort Bonifacio, Alabang and Quezon City as new and expanding BPO companies continue to locate their operation in these areas. Expansionary demand from local and multinational companies remained as the main driver of the office market in Makati CBD. Rental growth was sustained in the fourth quarter with Grade A rents increasing from the previous quarters PhP833 per square meter per month to PhP840 per square meter per month, translating to a 0.84% q-o-q growth. Vacancy level in the area slightly increased from 4.23% in the previous quarter to 4.47% brought about by the office consolidation and relocation to company-owned office facilities. Strong demand was maintained and given the tight market supply, there remained the opportunity for upward rental movement. Landlords however have been cautious in raising rents to maintain the competitiveness of the office market in Makati CBD considering the continued price pressures from the other business districts. Supply pressures in the area are expected to ease upon the completion of the Zuellig Building in the second quarter of 2012.

Upcoming Supply

800

600 GLA (in 000 sqm)

400

200

2012 2013 2014

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OFFICE MARKET (continued from page 2)

Alabang declined from the previous quarters 5.05% to 3.85% due to the strong take-up of the newly-completed office building. After three consecutive quarters of increasing rents, lease rates in the area have generally remained stable and now stood at PhP543 per square meter per month. Demand in the Quezon City business district was primarily driven by the increasing requirements of expanding BPO companies. Vacancy rates remained below 3% during the quarter but went up from the previous quarters 0.76% to 2.33%. Rental levels in the area slightly inching up to PhP519 per square meter per month from PhP517 per square meter per month in the previous quarter. Additional supply of 52,496 square meters of BPO leasable area is expected in 2012. The recent downturn and uncertainty in Europe and US is expected to further spur the demand for office spaces particularly in BPO buildings as foreign companies outsource some of their operations to reduce costs. However, the pending antioutsourcing bill of the US proves to be a threat to the growing BPO industry in the country as US accounts for 70% of the Philippines business process outsourcing market. The possible negative impact of this bill can be avoided once the country starts exploring alternative markets. Rental growth is expected in the coming quarters but landlords are seen to remain cautious in raising lease rates and to observe the tolerance levels on rents of locators.
Average Asking Lease Rate Average Asking Lease Rates of Prime and Grade A Buildings located in the business districts of Makati, Fort Bonifacio, Ortigas, Alabang and Quezon City Market Coverage Operational Prime and Grade A Buildings Supply Leasable Area within Market Coverage New Supply Leasable Area completed during the period Upcoming Supply Buildings that have either begun construction as evidenced by site excavation or foundation work, and is on-going or are for implementation as disclosed by developers Occupied Space Supply under contract with a tenant during a period Net Absorption The change in occupied space during the period for buildings included in the Market Coverage Vacant Space Supply that is not under contract with a tenant during the period Vacancy Rate Vacant Space as a percentage of the Base Inventory

Zuellig Building Lease rates in Fort Bonifacio generally remained stable during the quarter with rents slowly inching up from PhP695 per square meter per month in the previous quarter to PhP697 per square meter per month. Nonetheless, a 7.15% y-o-y rental growth was observed from PhP651 per square per month in the same period last year. The increased occupancy level of newly-completed traditional building contributed to the decline in vacancy rate from the previous quarters 6.28% to 4.16%. An additional 349,570 square meters of BPO leasable area is already in the pipeline by 2012 but this will not adversely affect the vacancy rate of the area due to the strong pre-commitment levels of the upcoming BPO office buildings. In Ortigas business district, vacancy rate remained within the 5% level but slightly increased from the previous quarters 5.1% to 5.68% brought about by the supply turnover of 17,058 square meters of leasable area during the quarter. Lease rates in the area also declined by 2.19% from PhP549 per square meter per month to PhP537 per square meter per month. Office supply in Ortigas is mostly from old traditional offices but an expected supply of 292,368 square meters of leasable area will be turned over by 2012. Most of these office space developments will cater to the growing BPO market. Despite the additional office supply of 17,000 square meters during the quarter, vacancy rate in

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RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Sound macroeconomic fundamentals signify the sustained growth of the domestic market albeit economic turmoil in the west. Continued expansion in the outsourcing industry is a boon to the upbeat service sector. Accelerated growth of the BPO sector trickles down to the luxury residential market which caters to housing requirements of expatriates. Capital values peaked in the third quarter of 2011 and remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2011. Transactions were concentrated on leases since only few units were available for sale during the period. Demand is coming primarily from investors. Lease rates of luxury condominiums which have peaked in the third quarter were held steady in the fourth quarter as demand from expatriates remained strong. Rental rates of three bedroom apartments in the CBD reached PhP242,550 per month while rent in Fort Bonifacio is at PhP240,000 per month. Majority of expatriates assigned to BPO offices in major cities outside Metro Manila are still housed within Metro Manila and only travels to their designated offices when necessary. As such, expansion of BPO companies outside the capital also translates to increase in demand for luxury condominiums. Even with the strong demand for luxury condominiums, landlords were cautious in raising rents as expatriates may opt to lease units located within newly constructed Grade A condominiums or lease houses located within luxury villages particularly with the increase in the supply of newly renovated houses. In Makati CBD, two luxury condominiums are under construction. Raffles Residences is set for turnover in the second quarter of 2012 and will add 220 luxury condominium units. Discovery Primea will add 90 luxury condominium units upon its completion in 2013. In Fort Bonifacio, 96 luxury condominium units are expected with the turnover of Shangri-La at the Fort which will be the first green luxury condominium. Luxury condominiums are always almost at full occupancy and these properties have been attractive to investors who are looking for income generating assets. Given the strong demand of investors, capital values may increase in the coming months. Rents are expected to remain stable even with the upcoming turnover of Raffles Residences as the continued rise in expatriate population is expected to support the demand. Rising income, positive employment situation and stable inflow of overseas remittances supports the growing demand for condominiums in general. Developers were prompted to venture into the residential condominium market due to restrictive land values and lack of sizable continued on page 7

Luxury Residential Condominium Stats

District Makati CBD Rockwell Center Bonifacio Global City Rental Rates PhP240K - PhP250K PhP210K PhP230K PhP230K - PhP250K

Upscale Condominium Stats

Size (sqm) Legaspi Village 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 40 - 80 110 - 150 150 - 250 60k-100k 75k-150k 150k-220k 80k 115k 185k Lease Range (PhP) Average (PhP)

Olore dio core feu Salcedo Village

Luxury Residential Houses Stats*

Village Forbes Park Dasmarias Village Urdaneta Village Bel Air Village Rental Rates PhP350K PhP500K PhP300K PhP400K PhP250K PhP300K PhP150K PhP250K

feuis amconsed molorem volor iuscing eugue cor summy nim do conullam,- vel ipisim vel ex enis et adipsum 115k vent 2 Bedroom 110 150 100k-125k augue feugait, quam amet 250aliscilit vulputat. Pute vercidunt am inis 3 Bedroom 150 150k-200k 160k quiscil dolorem velenis ad magnim velenim volore dolobor Apartment Ridge eetumsandrem vullan77 122 zzrit, core40k-65k cons augue et dignim dolese dolore 1 Bedroom 50k mincip eugue deliquisis aliquisim nit laoreet utpat la feugait deliquip 2 Bedroom 122 - 160 60k-80k 70k et ilit ad dolortisit, ver sis ea cons eum vent praessit luptat, corercilit 3 Bedroom 265 - 285 90k-150k 120k ullummod tio odignit ulla alis ectem dolore tem inim adiamet ad Rockwell Center eratie magna am, vullam, quip exerit wis aliquisl er ad magna faci 1 Bedroom 75-85 70k-90k 80k tie magna acilla faccumsandre min velit nulla adip enisis euisl exero 2 Bedroom ut nullut velessi blaoreet100k-140kvullam, quam 125-157 120k dolorem quisit adigna am 3 Bedroom 197-247 vercilis 160k-250kam, quis 175k inci eu facip exeros aliquismod te niamet autat
Bonifacio Global City 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 50-76 93-157 140-306 70k-90k 125k-150k 180k-220k 80k 140k 190k Fourth Quarter 2011

* Recent developments have prompted us to defer the use of size as a criterion in measuring lease rates for houses in these upscale communities. Extensive renovations done on a number of smaller houses in these communities have resulted in some of them fetching higher lease rates compared to their bigger but older counterparts.

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RETAIL MARKET
The economy sustained a positive trajectory on the back of expansions of the off-shoring and outsourcing sector and steady stream of overseas remittances. Rising income and favorable employment situation translated to higher consumer spending. Overall sentiment improved despite economic woes due to the euro zone debt crisis. Substantial growth in retail sales was recorded during the Yuletide season. Extended mall hours coupled with marked down prices of retail items encouraged spending. The period is favorable for landlords with the uptick in rental revenues supported by an increase in sales component of rents. Throughout the year, both local and international brands were active in the leasing market. New entrants include Tullys Coffee, Jamba Juice, Paris Hilton Handbags and Accessories, and Van Laack. Tea-based beverage brands such as Gong Cha, Chatime, and Happy Lemon were pumping up the number of their outlets across Metro Manila. More international labels are expected to enter the local market as buying habits of consumers continue to improve. The proliferation of pocket retail developments away from the business districts marks the trend towards decentralization. Neighborhood centers, strip malls, and convenience stores are positioned near residential and office developments to provide much needed shopping convenience. Retailers are patronizing this move as they are ensured of enough foot traffic and lower rental costs. Emerging retail areas are concentrated in the Bay Area, Quezon City, and southern Metro Manila mainly in Muntinlupa and Paraaque. Bonifacio High Street Central, which houses several retail outlets and restaurants, was opened in November in time for the holiday rush. The 6-storey mixed use building, which has a total gross leasable area of 28,000 square meters, incorporates office space starting from the third floor. Share of HFCE Items to Total:1H2011
Clothing, 1.8% Sin goods, 1.4%

Rec.,2.1%

Health, 2.2% Educ, 3.2% R&H, 4.1% Comms, 5.5%

Food, 40.7%

Furnishings, 6.1% Transport, 9.0 %

H&U 11.3% Misc, 12.7%

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

Retail projects in the pipeline include SM Aura in Bonifacio Global City. It will have 157,495 square meters of gross floor area. In Quezon City, Magnolia Town Center is expected to be completed in 2012. It will be situated amidst rising residential condominium developments in the city. Meanwhile, existing shopping centers are currently being redeveloped to improve mall patronage. Alabang Town Center will have an additional 33,000 square meters while Festival Supermall is slated to expand 80,000 square meters more after the ongoing construction. Following the holiday season, the retail sector will remain active with more international retailers showing interest in entering the domestic market. Consumer sentiment will be sustained as major drivers such as the BPO sector and overseas remittances show no signs of slowing down. Upcoming retail centers are dominantly located in vertical projects such as Alphaland Makati, San Lorenzo Place, and One Shangri-la Place. Integration of office-retail and residential-retail developments will continue particularly in the fringe areas.

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INDUSTRIAL MARKET
The exports industry struggled until the fourth quarter as demand for electronics remained weak due to continued economic woes of industrialized countries particularly Japan, US and the Euro zone countries. Total value of exported goods declined in the fourth quarter by 10.8% from PhP495.352B to PhP441.89B during the same period in 2010. Full year growth in the value of exported goods in 2011 also declined compared to 2010, albeit in a lower rate at 5.3% from PhP2.367T to PhP2.241T. Lease rates were kept stable during the quarter to further encourage demand for industrial properties. Though the country continues to attract investment commitments from both local and foreign firms, it is still not enough to push rental levels up given the abundant supply of industrial properties across the country. Leasing activity remained concentrated in major industrial parks and Freeport zones outside Manila. Clark Freeport Zone continued to attract investments from export-oriented manufacturing firms engaged in the production of pharmaceutical products and aircraft parts. The period also witnessed the entry of foreign-based companies who are either relocating or expanding their manufacturing and assembly facilities within CFZ. Meanwhile, majority of investment pledges in Subic Freeport are from local firms engaged in renewable energy projects. This has shifted bulk of the demand for industrial properties in Subic from services and logistics to energy-related ventures. The Global Gateway and Logistics Center within the Clark Freeport Zone is expected in the next two to three years. This development will include a 76hectare Logistics Park which will provide 4.5 million square feet of turn-key facilities for warehousing, distribution, light industrial and manufacturing operations. On the other hand, authorities of the Subic Freeport have already set the expansion of the Freeport to include neighboring towns in Bataan and Zambales. Lease rates are expected to remain stable in the coming quarters still due to the lack of aggressive demand for industrial facilities that could push the rental levels up. Electronics industry is expected to bounce back in the coming quarters due to the increasing global consumer electronics expenditure. The recovery of the electronics industry will further spur demand for industrial facilities in the country. There is optimism on the increase in demand for industrial facilities as interests from foreign companies who are looking to relocate in the country have been growing. Most of these companies are engaged in electronics and steel manufacturing, ship building and garments production. Rising labor costs in China have been a major concern for existing manufacturing locators and some have already signified interests to relocate in the country. Likewise, the continued strong consumption spending will be a boon to the industrial sector. The rise in the production of fast moving consumer goods would increase the requirements for logistics, storage and warehouse facilities.

SUBIC BAY FREEPORT

Metro-Manila : 130 kms (68 Miles) / 2.5 Hours Size : 67,000 hectares / 165,560 acres Power : 130 mws Water : 33,000 cubic meters/day Telco Provider: Subictel (PLDT) Lease Rate : US$0.40 - US$1.50 /sqm* US$2.00 - US$20.00/sqm (SFB)* Some Industrial & Business Park Subic Bay Industrial Park & the Subic Techno Park

CLARK FREEPORT ZONE

Metro Manila : 80 Kms (50 Miles) / 1+Hour Size : 33,653 Hectare / 83,158 Acres Power : 50mws + External Water : Max 40k cubic meters/day (2010) Telco Providers : PLDT & Digitel Lease Rate : US$ 0.30 /sqm (Main Zone Lot)* PhP5,500 - PhP25,000 /ha (Sub Zone Lot)* US$1.50- US$5.00 /sqm (SFB)* Some Industrial & Business Parks BerthaPhil Business Park, Clark Premiere Industrial Park, and the PhilExcel Business Park

CALABARZON
Metro-Manila :110 Kms (68 Miles) / 2 Hour Drive to Batangas Power : Varies by Location Water : Varies by Location Telco Providers : Varies by Location (PLDT etc.) Selling Rate : PhP2,300 - PhP4,500 /sqm (Lot) Lease Rate : PhP46 - PhP76 /sqm (Lot)* US$2 US$6 /sqm (SFB)*

Some Industrial & Business Parks Calamba Premiere Intl Park, Carmelray Industrial Park (I & II), Cavite Export Processing Zone, First Cavite Industrial Estate, First Philippine Industrial Park, Gateway Industrial Park, Greenfield Automotive Park, Laguna International Industrial Park, Laguna Technopark, Light Industry & Science Park (I, II, & III), Lima Technology Center, and Philtown Industrial Park

Fourth Quarter 2011

* Lease rate per month SFB (Standard Factory Building)

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PPP to Spur Growth (continued from page 1)

worth a total of P142 billion. The priority PPP projects are the LRT 1 Cavite extension, the NAIA expressway phase 2 and the NLEX-SLEX connector road. The development of lands in the areas covered by the PPP program will boost the prices of land in those areas. For example, there was an observed increase in land values between Clark and Subic from P30 to P50 to P300 to P500 per square meter, resulting to a higher realty tax intake for the local government. The P21-billion Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway (SCTEx) which was completed in 2007 is the 93.77-kilometer flagship project seen to help convert the central and northern Luzon regions into a super region of economic growth. The SCTEx reduced travel time between the Subic Bay Freeport Zone and the Clark Special Economic Zone to half an hour, and between Clark and the Hacienda Luisita industrial estate in Tarlac to 20 minutes. It has provided access to other growth centers like Bataan and Tarlac. Another noteworthy infrastructure project is the SLEx Toll road 3 (Calamba, Laguna to Santo Tomas, Batangas) which is an extension of the Toll road 2 (Alabang to Calamba) and connects the expressway to the Southern Tagalog arterial road going to Batangas City. The SLEx-STAR link is a 7.3kilometer toll road from South Luzon Expressway in Calamba City, Laguna to the STAR Tollway in Sto Tomas, Batangas. It was completed in October 2010 and opened to the public by December of the same year. The South Luzon Tollway Toll road 2 and 3 is a P14 billion joint venture project of the PNCC and the Malaysian company MTD Capital Berhad and the Manila Toll Expressway Systems, Inc. (MATES) with a thirty (30) year concession period. The Tollway from Alabang to Batangas City provide easy access and shorter travel time going to Metro Manila and effectively provides access to two major ports in Batangas and Manila. While land prices from Alabang to Calamba has already registered significant increase over the last two years with developed residential lot prices rising from P8,000 per square meter to as much as P21,000 per square meter (Nuvali), industrial parks are also pressured to raise their rents due to rising land prices. Given this development, agricultural lands traversed by the SLExSTAR Link and STAR Tollway will be encouraged to be converted for industrial and residential use given the new road project. This will translate to new industrial parks, new residential subdivisions, new neighbourhood strips and complimenting institutional developments such as schools, hospitals and other support facilities. Page 7
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The PPP program is not limited to road and toll-way projects. It also includes tourism-related projects that compliment the hospitality industry such as airport and seaport. Given its potential, major investors have already expressed their interest to take part in this growthinducing opportunity. Ayala Corp. won the Aquino government's first publicprivate partnership project December last year with its bid to a 4-kilometer road connecting the Daang Hari Road to the Susana Heights interchange of South Luzon Expressway. The Ayala group announced that it will invest P200 billion for public-private partnership (PPP) projects in the next five years in various sectors which include toll roads, water and power facilities, airports and railways. As the roll-out of PPP projects are underway, investors and developers are very aggressive in their efforts to acquire raw lands suitable for new property developments. All this will sustain business activity for the Property Sector in the Philippines in the short and long term.

RESIDENTIAL MARKET (continued from page 4)

land for horizontal developments in Metro Manila particularly within and near the business districts. From 44,811 units launched in 2010, the volume increased to 57,979 units in 2011, a 29% growth y-o-y. Bulk of the upcoming condominium units in the next five years fall within the range of PhP40,000 to PhP100,000 per square meter depending on the location. This is expected to supply the underserved mid-income market in Metro Manila. Rapid urbanization and changing lifestyle prompted dwellers to adopt condominium living. Buyers are recognizing the benefits of acquiring condominium units which includes accessibility to workplace, retail centers and schools. Affordable residential condominium projects are targeted to start-up families, young professionals, empty nesters and families of OFWs. Buying appetite was sustained amidst single-digit interest rates on home loans offered by commercial banks. Developers are devising flexible payment schemes to attract more buyers. Reservation fee for mid-market condominium units usually cost PhP10,000 to PhP25,000 while down payment can be stretched up to 2 or 3 years.
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FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

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Manila Office 10th Floor Ayala Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Avenue, Makati City 1226 Phone: (632) 752-2580 / 848-7388 Fax: (632) 752-2571 Cebu Office Unit 1505, 15th Floor Ayala Life-FGU Center, Mindanao Avenue corner Biliran Road Cebu Business Park, Cebu City 6000 Phone: (6332) 318-0070 / 236-0462 http://www.cbre.com.ph

Rick Santos Chairman

Rick.Santos@cbre.com.ph

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Victor Asuncion
Global Research & Consultancy Victor.Asuncion@cbre.com.ph

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Unit 1505, 15th Floor Ayala-FGU Center Mindanao Avenue corner Biliran Road Cebu Business Park Cebu City, Philippines T: (6332) 318-0070 / 236-0462

Mabel Luna

Valuation & Advisory Services Mabel.Luna@cbre.com.ph

Lui Matti

Asset and Portfolio Management Lui.Matti@cbre.com.ph

Yvette Acebedo

Residential Services Yvette.Acebedo@cbre.com.ph

2011 CB Richard Ellis, Inc. We obtained the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified its accuracy and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease of financing, or withdrawal without notice. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct your own investigation of the property and transaction.

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