Energy Landscape in 2020: Smart and Sustainable?

Roberta Gamble, Director Energy & Power Systems

Focus Points

Context: Mega Trends Drive Change Global Market Dynamics The Energy Mix

Solar and Wind Forecasts Smart Grid Advances to Meet the Challenge

Energy in 2020

Mega Trends Impacting the Energy Industry

Top Global Mega Trends

URBANIZATION
Mega City Mega City SMART Cities and SMART Infrastructure SMART Cities and SMART Infrastructure

SMART FACTORY
SMART and GREEN SMART and GREEN

SOCIAL
Growing Middle Class Growing Middle Class Geo Socialization Geo Socialization

INFRASTRUCTURE
Power, Water, Transport Power, Water, Transport

ECONOMY
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers Emerging Outsourcing Hotspots Emerging Outsourcing Hotspots

BUSINESS
New Business Models New Business Models

TECHNOLOGY
SMART Clouds SMART Clouds Virtual World Virtual World Wireless Intelligence Wireless Intelligence

HEALTH & WELLNESS

Health, Wellness Health, Wellness Aging Populations Aging Populations

Market Trends Driving Energy

Infrastructure Growing Economies, Populations

Need to for Greener Energy solutions

Energy

BRIC, N-11 Among Fastest Growing Economies

6.0

BRIC
2009 $8.9 2030 $9.9 2030 $42.8 2009 $32 2030 $32

5.0

Growth Rate (%)

4.0

3.0

2.0

-(1.0)

N-11
2009 $4.3

-(2.0)

G-7
4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 25000 35000 40000 45000

-(3.0) 3000

GDP ($Trillion)
6

Outsourcing Hotspots of 2020

St. Petersburg Krakow Prague Bucharest Cairo Mexico City Chennai Singapore Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Buenos Aires Beijing Delhi Shanghai Kolkat Shenzhen a Moscow

R&D Centres Production Plants Engineering Services Centres

7

Rise of the Middle Class in 2020: Over 1 Billion from India and China Alone

140 Million

700 Million

400 Million

120 Million

15 Million

Stimulus Packages Target Infrastructure, Energy

Canada $26 billion UK $4.6 billion

Russia Major share of the $20 billion stimulus package Germany $32 billion France Construction stimulus $6.3 billion Italy $5 billion China $333 billion

Spain $10 Billion USA Estimated that over $2.2 trillion is needed over next 5 years for infrastructure Government stimulus packages allocates $72 billion

Indonesia $1.17 billion

Australia $16.2 billion

Shift in Energy Consumption

Europe Latin Am erica18% Europe 22% Russ ia Europe 5% 29% Middle Russia East 3% 6% Africa Middle Eas t 3% 3% India 6% Africa 3% Russ ia India 9% 4% Rest of Asia 15% Middle East 2%

4% Latin Ameri ca 6%
Latin Am erica 7%

North Ameri ca North Ameri ca 32% 28% North America 23% China 5%

Rest of Asia Africa 15% 3% ChinaChina 13% 20% Rest of Asia

India 3%

13%

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The Energy Mix Today and in 2020

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Top 10 Energy Technologies to Watch For in 2020

Advanced Batteries and Storage

Wind

SMART Grid

Nuclear Power

Top 10 Energy Technologies of the Future

Biofuels

Distributed Geothermal

Key technologies that are poised Key technologies that are poised to have a profound impact on the to have a profound impact on the global energy industry. These global energy industry. These areas represent high potential areas represent high potential ROI. ROI.

Fuel cells

Energy Management Solar PV, CSP

Carbon Capture and Storage

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Fuel Balance Today and in 2020

30000

25000

3%

Solar, Other Renewables Wind

20000

Hydro Nuclear Gas

15000

10000

Oil Coal

5000

0 2010
13

Why Solar and Wind?

14

Solar and Wind Market Growth

15

Photovoltaic Market Global Growth

Megawatts Installed

CAGR 33.5%

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan

16

Photovoltaic Market Global Growth

46% CAGR to 2016

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan

17

Concentrated Solar Power Global Market Growth

Megawatts Installed
CAGR 49.6%

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan

18

Concentrated Solar Power Global Market Growth

Megawatts Installed
43% CAGR to 2016

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan

19

Wind Power Market Global Growth

Megawatts Installed

Global CAGR 22%

US: 24% CAGR

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan

20

Solar and Wind Power Market Drivers

21

Solar and Wind Power Market Restraints

22

Smart Grid Connection to the Future

23

Primary Objectives for Utilities by 2020

1.

Increase Power Availability

2.

Improve Energy Efficiency

-by minimizing interruptions in power delivery

3.

-by reducing waste in power delivery and energy losses

4.

Accommodate Renewable Power

Preparing for Growing Power Load

-Prevent congestion on the power lines and interruptions

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Driving the Market

Supply-Side Drivers Demand-Side Drivers
Need for Power Information

Renewable Energy

Mitigate New Build T&D

Electric Vehicles

Respond to Energy Legislation

Net Metering

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

25

New Business Models for Utilities

Current Business Model
Electricity usage bill

Power generation

Power transmission

Power distribution

Metering

Electric appliances/ devices

Customer service

Distribution

Future Business Model

Distribution Power generation Power transmission Power distribution Third-party energy management services Electric appliances/ devices

Power from utility

Monitoring Metering and energy portal

Power generation

End User/ Grid

Customer service Current flow Information flow

Monitoring Energy Information Services

Power from Distributed Ge neration units

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Energy in 2020

27

Fuel Balance Today and in 2020

Solar, Other Renewables

30000

7% 3%
Solar, Other Renewables Wind Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil

25000

20000

Hydro Nuclear Gas

15000

10000

Oil Coal Coal

5000

0 2010 2020
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 Installations of renewable energy technologies will more than double Government incentives will be a big driver Wind and other technologies will achieve increasing price parity Current traditional power sources will evolve: more gas, cleaner coal, expanded nuclear The grid will have to keep up and will be an increasing area of investment
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FROST.COM

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