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April 2012
Sometimes the best answers aren't right under your nose. For example, the
most popular market indicator is home prices. But prices are what we call a
lagging indicator, because they reflect closed sales. Leading indicators are
forward-looking. Watch activity related to list price received at sale, days on
market and months supply of inventory to see how sellers might be regaining
their pricing power. Favorable supply-demand trends may be ticking away from
the buyer
Moral of the story:
y for the first time in years.
y
y Price is but a single
g
picture in the gallery.
New Listings in the Austin region decreased 1.8 percent to 3,690. Pending
Sales were up 34.8 percent to 2,841. Inventory levels shrank 26.8 percent to
8,679 units.
Prices enjoyed a boost. The Median Sales Price increased 8.0 percent to
$205,000. Days on Market was down 21.2 percent to 64 days. The supplydemand balance stabilized as Months Supply of Inventory was down 42.1
percent to 4.4 months.
When monitoring residential real estate activity, it is always important to keep
tabs on the overall economy and job growth. Preliminary Q1-2012 GDP growth
came in at 2.2 percent, which, while disappointing to some observers and
slower than Q4-2011, still signals economic expansion and not contraction.
Expedited bank processing and easing lending standards are also encouraging
developments.
Quick Facts
+ 8.1%
+ 8.0%
- 26.8%
Change in
Closed Sales
Change in
Median Sales Price
Change in
Inventory
Market Overview
New Listings
Pending Sales
Closed Sales
Days On Market Until Sale
Median Sales Price
Average Sales Price
Percent of List Price Received
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Months Supply of Inventory
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported.Current as of May 10, 2012. All data from ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings
4-2009
4-2010
4-2011
4-2010
4-2011
4-2010
4-2011
4-2010
4-2011
4-2010
4-2011
4-2010
4-2011
4-2010
4-2011
4-2010
4-2011
4-2010
4-2011
4-2010
4-2011
12,913
- 2.0%
2,107
2,841
+ 34.8%
7,169
9,150
+ 27.6%
1,860
2,011
+ 8.1%
5,926
6,680
+ 12.7%
81
64
- 21.2%
88
76
- 14.1%
$189,900
$205,000
+ 8.0%
$185,000
$195,000
+ 5.4%
$261,662
$265,996
+ 1.7%
$246,860
$252,016
+ 2.1%
93.4%
95.6%
+ 2.4%
92.6%
94.4%
+ 1.9%
166
172
+ 3.3%
170
179
+ 5.4%
11,859
8,679
- 26.8%
--
--
--
7.6
4.4
- 42.1%
--
--
--
4-2012
Months Supply
of Homes for Sale
4-2009
13,181
4-2012
- 1.8%
4-2012
3,690
4-2012
Percent of Original
List Price Received
4-2009
3,756
4-2012
+/
4-2012
4-2012
+/
4-2012
Closed Sales
4-2009
4-2012
4-2012
Pending Sales
4-2009
4-2011
4-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings
A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
April
Year To Date
16,450
4,960
13,181
3,756
2010
12,913
3,690
-24.3%
-1.8%
2011
2012
2010
-19.9%
-2.0%
2011
2012
Month
Prior
Year
Current
Year
+/
May
3,464
3,544
+2.3%
June
3,796
3,551
-6.5%
July
3,674
3,164
-13.9%
August
2,978
2,702
-9.3%
September
2,683
2,484
-7.4%
October
2,543
2,483
-2.4%
November
2,083
2,052
-1.5%
December
1,795
1,585
-11.7%
January
2,785
2,593
-6.9%
February
2,669
2,892
+8.4%
March
3,971
3,738
-5.9%
April
3,756
3,690
-1.8%
12-Month Avg
3,016
2,873
-4.7%
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales
A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month.
April
Year To Date
9,150
2,872
2,841
8,575
7,169
2,107
2010
-26.6%
+34.8%
2011
2012
2010
-16.4%
+27.6%
2011
2012
Month
Prior
Year
Current
Year
+/
May
1,443
2,255
+56.3%
June
1,656
2,188
+32.1%
July
1,639
2,104
+28.4%
August
1,527
1,865
+22.1%
September
1,396
1,697
+21.6%
October
1,423
1,635
+14.9%
November
1,293
1,468
+13.5%
December
1,163
1,268
+9.0%
January
1,451
1,715
+18.2%
February
1,569
2,049
+30.6%
March
2,042
2,545
+24.6%
April
2,107
2,841
+34.8%
12-Month Avg
1,559
1,969
+26.3%
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales
A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
April
Year To Date
2,252
2,011
6,520
1,860
2010
6,680
5,926
-17.4%
+8.1%
2011
2012
2010
-9.1%
+12.7%
2011
2012
Month
Prior
Year
Current
Year
May
2,307
2,081
-9.8%
June
2,211
2,356
+6.6%
July
1,654
2,182
+31.9%
August
1,686
2,226
+32.0%
September
1,425
1,823
+27.9%
October
1,346
1,603
+19.1%
November
1,340
1,497
+11.7%
December
1,573
1,733
+10.2%
January
1,059
1,190
+12.4%
February
1,225
1,417
+15.7%
March
1,782
2,062
+15.7%
+/
April
1,860
2,011
+8.1%
12-Month Avg
1,622
1,848
+15.1%
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
April
Year To Date
81
66
2010
88
64
+22.3%
-21.2%
2011
2012
76
70
2010
Prior
Year
Current
Year
+/
May
62
76
+22.2%
June
67
72
+8.3%
July
70
74
+5.8%
August
72
77
+7.1%
September
77
78
+0.7%
October
88
80
-8.7%
November
86
80
-8.0%
December
92
84
-8.7%
January
88
83
-5.7%
February
93
81
-12.3%
March
92
79
-14.5%
Month
+25.3%
-14.1%
2011
2012
April
81
64
-21.2%
12-Month Avg
79
77
-3.0%
90
80
70
60
50
40
1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
April
Year To Date
$205,000
$185,000
2010
$189,900
$179,900
+2.6%
+8.0%
2011
2012
2010
Prior
Year
Current
Year
+/
May
$186,000
$192,000
+3.2%
June
$198,000
$198,000
0.0%
July
$211,555
$190,000
-10.2%
August
$194,000
$191,500
-1.3%
September
$188,731
$185,000
-2.0%
October
$190,000
$187,785
-1.2%
November
$179,500
$184,000
+2.5%
December
$189,000
$187,000
-1.1%
January
$184,500
$176,700
-4.2%
February
$185,000
$190,000
+2.7%
March
$182,250
$199,101
+9.2%
Month
$185,000
$195,000
+2.8%
+5.4%
2011
2012
April
$189,900
$205,000
+8.0%
12-Mo. Median
$190,000
$190,539
+0.3%
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
April
Year To Date
$261,662
$265,996
$246,860
$228,668
2010
$252,016
$230,857
+ 14.4%
+ 1.7%
2011
2012
2010
Prior
Year
Current
Year
+/
May
$236,487
$259,972
+9.9%
June
$265,235
$262,654
-1.0%
July
$275,446
$255,611
-7.2%
August
$257,321
$250,351
-2.7%
September
$241,609
$244,565
+1.2%
October
$255,409
$247,299
-3.2%
November
$243,559
$242,531
-0.4%
December
$245,024
$242,579
-1.0%
January
$241,053
$223,644
-7.2%
February
$237,568
$249,024
+4.8%
March
$241,250
$256,797
+6.4%
Month
+ 6.9%
+ 2.1%
2011
2012
April
$261,662
$265,996
+1.7%
12-Month Avg
$250,885
$251,749
+0.3%
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
April
Year To Date
94.2%
94.8%
2010
93.4%
92.6%
94.4%
95.6%
-1.4%
+2.4%
2011
2012
2010
-1.6%
+1.9%
2011
2012
Month
Prior
Year
Current
Year
+/
May
94.8%
93.4%
-1.4%
June
94.1%
93.8%
-0.3%
July
93.1%
93.5%
+0.4%
August
92.4%
93.2%
+0.8%
September
91.9%
92.9%
+1.1%
October
91.2%
93.0%
+2.0%
November
91.3%
92.8%
+1.7%
December
91.5%
92.6%
+1.2%
January
91.6%
92.9%
+1.4%
February
92.3%
93.6%
+1.4%
March
92.6%
94.6%
+2.1%
April
93.4%
95.6%
+2.4%
12-Month Avg
92.7%
93.5%
+0.9%
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
April
Year To Date
166
172
2010
170
179
158
154
+7.7%
+3.3%
2011
2012
2010
Prior
Year
Current
Year
+/
May
154
168
+8.9%
June
149
165
+10.4%
July
144
170
+18.2%
August
157
174
+10.7%
September
161
181
+12.6%
October
161
177
+10.3%
November
170
182
+7.0%
December
160
180
+12.1%
January
168
192
+14.2%
February
167
182
+8.8%
Month
+7.5%
+5.4%
2011
2012
March
171
173
+1.7%
April
166
172
+3.3%
12-Month Avg
161
176
+9.9%
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
April
Month
13,099
11,859
8,679
2010
+7.7%
-26.8%
2011
2012
Prior
Year
Current
Year
+/
May
13,780
12,075
-12.4%
June
14,348
12,155
-15.3%
July
14,646
11,905
-18.7%
August
13,967
11,259
-19.4%
September
13,249
10,551
-20.4%
October
12,416
10,064
-18.9%
November
11,347
9,388
-17.3%
December
10,015
8,267
-17.5%
January
10,098
8,227
-18.5%
February
10,285
8,335
-19.0%
March
11,183
8,692
-22.3%
April
11,859
8,679
-26.8%
12-Month Avg
12,266
9,966
-18.9%
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
April
Prior
Year
Current
Year
+/
May
7.4
7.4
+0.6%
June
7.9
7.3
-7.4%
July
8.2
7.0
-14.9%
August
8.0
6.5
-19.0%
September
7.8
6.0
-23.1%
October
7.4
5.7
-24.1%
November
6.8
5.2
-23.0%
December
6.0
4.6
-23.3%
January
6.0
4.5
-25.3%
February
6.2
4.5
-28.1%
March
6.9
4.6
-33.9%
Month
7.6
6.8
4.4
2010
+7.7%
-26.8%
2011
2012
April
7.6
4.4
-42.1%
12-Month Avg
7.2
5.6
-21.6%
3
1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
All data comes from the ABOR Multiple Listing Service. Provided by the Austin Board of REALTORS. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12