New

Jersey Board of Public U7li7es (NJBPU)

State of New Jersey

An Advanced Atmosphere/Ocean Assessment Program: Reducing the Risks Associated with Oshore Wind Energy Development As Dened by The NJ Energy Master Plan and
The NJ Oshore Wind Energy Economic Development Act

Principal Inves.gators: Dr. Sco( Glenn and Dr. Rich Dunk, CCM Team Members: Dr. Josh Kohut, Dr. Hugh Roarty, Louis Bowers, Greg Seroka, John Kerfoot, Laura Palamara, Mike Crowley, Ethan Handel, Colin Evans
New Ocean Data Hi-Res Weather Model SpaIal ValidaIon Data Wind Power StaIsIcs
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 Ecological baseline studies of oshore wind power already performed (shown to leA) Avian species Fisheries Marine Mammals Sea turtles

This project is the physical baseline study

Rutgers University - Coastal Ocean ObservaIon Lab

OperaIons, Research & EducaIon Center

Vessels - Satellite
Satellite Ships/ Vessels CODAR Glider

REMUS Modeling Leadership

Data Vis. Security Educa7on

Satellite Data Acquisi7on Sta7ons

CODAR Network

Glider Fleet

3-D Forecasts

Project Objectives: 1) Develop a new satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data product that (a) preserves coastal upwelling centers, (b) includes storm mixing and (c) can be used as the bottom boundary condition for a high resolution atmospheric forecast (Crowley, Kerfoot, Palamara). 2) Deploy a medium-range Multi-static High Frequency Radar Network for surface current mapping that covers the full New Jersey coast from New York Harbor to Delaware Bay (Roarty, Handel, Evans). 3) Leverage the NJ DEP nearshore Glider Program for subsurface ocean data as available (Kohut, Kerfoot). 4) Configure and operate a nested high-resolution atmospheric forecast model that resolves coastal upwelling and seabreeze (Bowers, Seroka). 5) Validate the atmospheric model using spatial HF Radar surface data (Kohut, Palamara) and available meteorological time series and vertical profile data (Bowers, Seroka). 6) Develop wind statistics from the validated high-resolution forecast model (Bowers, Seroka).

Satellite Testbeds
Corporate Partner: SeaSpace Since 1992
SST SST & OC

SST/ Weather

SST & OC

Rutgers

U. Delaware

Satellite SST Products

Real-Time Global (RTG) 1/12 degree (~9.25 km) Most recent 24 hrs of in situ (buoys, ships) and satellite (AVHRR and METOP) data

Gemmill et al. (2007

Satellite SST Products

Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) SST 1 km resolution Previous 14 days (weighted) of MODIS, AMSR-E, GOES/POES, OSTIA

Haines et al. (2007)

AVHRR+SPoRT Composite
AVHRR declouding algorithm specific to Mid-Atlantic Bight, summer (for now)
<10C removed (cloud) near IR albedo >2.3% removed (clouds) Other tests on changes (within ~3km X 3km grid boxes) of SST (1C) and near IR albedo (0.15%)

3-day AVHRR coldest pixel composite Then, coldest pixel composite with SPoRT

AVHRR+SPoRT Composite Example

Existing NOAA Product New Rutgers Product

We can now resolve upwelling using satellites

Cloud Masking *Cloud Masking* MODIS 7-day
(old method) (new method, unique to Rutgers) (old method)

and SST for hurricane simulaIons: e.g. Hurricane Irene

SPoRT + RTG RU declouded product Dierence

Mid-Atlantic Bight HF Radar Network

1000 km Alongshore Length Scale

Mid-Atlantic HF Radar Network 14 Long-Range CODARs 7 Medium-Range CODARs 15 Short-Range CODARs 36 Total Triple Nested & Multistatic

12

HF Radar Testbeds
Corporate Partner: CODAR Ocean Sensors Since 1997
Short Range 25 MHz

36 Sites

Long Range 5 MHz

Multi-Static Triple Nested

Medium Range 13 MHz

CODAR Wave Data - Wildwood

Rutgers AIS Network for Vessel Traffic

Autonomous Underwater Gliders Since 1998

Satellite Ocean Color Corporate Partner: Teledyne Webb Research

MARACOOS Leveraged Glider Flights Since 2007

Satellite SST

Subsurface Glider Data

8/20 8/30

9/1 9/20

Autonomous Pla[orms: Dissolved Oxygen 2010

8

2-4 mg/L 4-6 mg/L >6 mg/L

5
10/08 10/25 11/2 11/19

Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L) 6

Water Quality Tracking Hurricane Irene

Dissolved Oxygen

RU-WRF domains

3 km horizontal resoluIon over NY Bight 0.75 km horizontal resoluIon over study area By comparison, North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model from NOAA is 12 km horizontal resoluIon
Model is being run in real-7me, for precise comparison to onsite met towers

Data is currently being extracted from the model at a selected array of grid points within the study domain producing several Virtual Meteorological Towers.

Forecast from June 4 valid 18Z June 5 (yesterday)

NAM 12km

RU-WRF 3km

RU-WRF 0.75km

In this case, RU-WRF 0.75km develops sea breeze about 1 hour before RU-WRF 3km

NAM 12km

RU-WRF 3km

RU-WRF 0.75km

3 hours later

Virtual Met Tower Examples

Onshore (KACY) Oshore

IMPACT OF OCEAN OBSERVATIONS ON HURRICANE IRENE INTENSITY FORECASTS

Hurricane Irene
Aug 20-29
Total inches of rainfall

32

First tropical storm to threaten New York City since Hurricane Gloria in 1985 Flooding records broken in 26 rivers Caused at least 56 deaths Damage nearly $8 billion

Hurricane Irene

39.5N 73W Surface Current Time Series Total Current Near-Inertial Current

Wave & Wind Direction Time Series

Eye Passes over NJ mid-day on Aug 28

Hurricane Irene

39.5N 73W Surface Current Time Series Total Current Near-Inertial Current

Wave & Wind Direction Time Series

Eye Passes over NJ mid-day on Aug 28

Hurricane Irene Surface Current Wavelet Analysis

Direct Wind Forcing Inertial Response

Aug 27 Frontside

Aug 28 Eye

Aug 29 Backside

Aug 30 Inertial

Aug 31 Inertial

Sep 01 Inertial

RU-WRF Atmospheric Forecast Model

85 Wind Speed (kts) 75 65 55 45 35

Maximum Sustained Wind Speed (10m)

NHC Best Track NHC Forecast

Date

Temperature

Two Gliders Deployed by MARACOOS in Hurricane Irene

RU23 Deployed for MARACOOS. Map subsurface T/S structure for fisheries. Damaged early - drifter Recovered by fisherman Provided data on inertial currents during storm.

RU16 Deployed for EPA. Map bottom dissolved oxygen. Provided data on mixing during storm.

WRF Model Run: SST Update

27/120028/0600 28/060029/0600

Run Comparison
WARM (RTG only) COLD Update (AVHRR)

Hurricane Irene Forecast Sensitivity to SST

Maximum Wind Speed Error (knots)
Date/Time (UTC) 27/1200 27/1800 28/0000 28/0600 28/1200 28/1800 29/0000 29/0600 Sum of Squares RMSE Original NHC Forecast 5 10 10 5 15 15 15 10 800 9.43 WRF WRF Warm SST Warm SST (RTG only) (RTG only + OML Model) -17.22 -17.23 4.1 4.2 1.39 -2.14 -1.2 -1.04 2.39 4.79 4.97 3.51 3.62 1.93 10.48 9.84 457 7.13 452 7.09 WRF Cold SST (AVHRR) -6.17 5.88 3.96 -1.21 0.5 -2.67 -0.89 4.52 118 3.61

Cold SST Produces the best intensity forecast!

NJ Sea Breeze Example

Land wind direction Near shore wind direction

Offshore wind direction

Wind Speed [m/s]

RU-WRF Model 2km SimulaIon

Sea breeze case study May 31, 2012:

RU-WRF run at 3km resoluIon

Sea breeze animaIon:

RU-WRF 3km run with RUSST

10m Wind Speed (kts) at KACY

Time 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 Obs RU-WRF NWS 3 8 8 7 8 1.5 7.1 7.6 6.9 8.4 RU-WRF NWS Error Error 1.5 5 2 0.9 9 1 9 0.4 1 8 0.1 1 6 0.4 2 Average 0.7 kts 1.4 kts Error

RU-WRF vs. NWS:

Throughout sea breeze case study, RU-WRF predicted wind speed more accurately than NWS forecasts

10m Wind DirecIon at KACY

Time (UTC) 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 OBS NW NW NW NW N N N N SE SE - SE S S S RU-WRF N NW NW NW NW N N N N N NE E SE SE S NWS N N N N NW

RU-WRF vs. NWS:

RU-WRF captures SE sea breeze wind direcIon NWS does not

Walt Drag (NWS Mt. Holly):

simulation OUTPerformed the 12z/21 SPC WRF w a nice depiction of the sqline..albeit shorter than reality...mainly nw NJ... it also far outperformed the HRRR from 01z/22. it also picked up the Gustiness associated with the CFP in E PA/central NJ at 03z with 34+KT gusts. Well done! Walt 0339z/22 from home

Virtual Met Tower Examples:

May 31, 2012 sea breeze case

Coastal/Oshore Monitoring
Meteorological Tower Meteorological Buoy Oshore verIcal LIDAR

Coastal/Oshore Scanning LIDAR

Infrared Satellite

Coastal Radar (CODAR)

Coastal/Oshore Monitoring
Oshore verIcal LIDAR

Coastal/Oshore Scanning LIDAR

!

Enhanced High Resolution Coverage

13 MHz CODAR

Surface Ocean Currents

CODAR Processing
Raw Tidal DeIded 30-h Low- Pass Filtered

CODAR Wavelet Analysis

RAW CODAR Currents

DeIded CODAR Currents

NOAA buoy 44009

Winds

CODAR seabreeze animaIon

HF Radar Derived Linear Wind Model

Current Transient [U'] (cm/s)

Wind Transient [W'] (cm/s)

Rotate wind vectors according to complex correla7on Calculate the slope and intercept of best t line U'c(x,y,t) = slope(x,y)*W'(t)

Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Coupling

BPU Meeting June 6, 2012: Main Takeaway Points Demonstrate variability of the offshore wind resource for designated study area by using high resolution nested atmospheric modeling Validate modeling efforts with existing data as well as with OSW developers coastal/offshore data (scanning LIDAR, offshore vertical LIDAR, three 60m coastal met towers) The NJ sea breeze has a large impact on wind resource during peak energy demand season Sea surface temperature is a critical input variable to the atmospheric model for producing accurate wind resource assessments; RUCOOL has developed a unique technique for declouding satellite imagery to ensure that coastal upwelling and storm mixing processes can be resolved CODAR is a unique monitoring system for detecting surface currents and the associated spatial wind variability within the study area Wave data and spatial variability of the waves attained from CODAR can also be used to determine surface roughness features which is an input to the atmospheric model This work can be used as a basis for a representative forecasting/ predicting program