School of Advanced International Studies The Johns Hopkins University International Negotiation & Bargaining Professor Zartman Ofc:

Rm 415 Rome Office Hours: Thurs 10-1 or by chance or appointment Syllabus This course is designed to provide an understanding of the process of negotiation, in international diplomacy or anywhere else. It will present various approaches to the explanation of outcomes, show their strengths and limitations, and apply them to actual cases. In the process, it will also develop insights into the matter of how best to negotiate. In the first half of the course, theoretical approaches and concepts will be examined; in the second half, these approaches will be used to examine specific cases. Throughout, the subject will be placed in the context of the political science paradigm of power. The basic texts for the course are: + Terrence Hopmann, The Negotiation Process and the Resolution of International Conflict (University of South Carolina Press, 1998) paperback. [1996 version in hardback] Richard Shell, Bargaining for Advantage: Negotiation Strategies for Reasonable People (Penguin 2000), paperback + Victor Kremenyuk et al, International Negotiations: Analysis, Approaches, Issues (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2001), paperback + Snyder & Diesing, Conflict Among Nations (Princeton 1978), paperback * I.W. Zartman & Maureen Berman, The Practical Negotiator (Yale 1982), paperback Daniel Druckman, "Negotiating" in Zartman and Rasmussen, Peacemaking in International Conflict (USIP 1997) + Francois de Callieres, On the Manner of Negotiating with Princes (Houghton Mifflin Co, 2000) Available through Isabelle (10 copies available) Primary sources for case studies are the participant accounts in: + Mario Cuomo, Forest Hills Diary (Random House 1978), paperback (Out of print; buy a used copy if you can find one - it's a classic). Alaster Sparks, Tomorrow is Another Country (University of Chicago Press 1996), pt I * R.F. Kennedy, Thirteen Days (Norton 1966), paperback. * Uri Savir, The Process (Random House 1998), pp. 1-95 (pt I). Other books that will be particularly useful are: Steven Brams, Superpower Games (Yale 1985), paperback. Alan Coddington, Theories of the Bargaining Process (Aldine 1968). I. W. Zartman and Jeffrey Z. Rubin, eds., Power and Negotiation (U Michigan 2000). Barbara Farnham, ed., Avoiding losses, taking risks : prospect theory and international conflict (Michigan 1994), chaps 1&2. John McDonald & Diane Bendahmane, eds., Perspectives on Negotiation (GPO/Foreign Service Spring 2004 (202) 663-5745 (301) 622-5151 Zartman@jhu.edu

Institute, 1986) + Alexander George et al, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Little Brown 1971) +Harold Nicolson, Diplomacy (Oxford 1964), chaps. 2-5. Paul Pillar, Negotiating Peace (Princeton, 1983) Jeffrey Rubin & Bert Brown, The Social Psychology of Bargaining and Negotiation (Academic 1975) Paul Swingle, Structure of Conflict (Academic 1970) Oran Young, ed., Bargaining (Indiana 1975) Peyton Young, ed., Negotiation Analysis (Michigan 1992) + I.W. Zartman, ed., The 50% Solution (Yale 1987), paperback + I.W. Zartman, ed., The Negotiation Process (Sage 1978), paperback Leigh Tompson, The Mind and Heart of the Negotiator (Prentice Hall 2001), paperback In the Cuban case: Kennedy and Khrushchev, "Exchange of Letters," Department of State Bulletin, 19 November 1973, pp. 635-55 Jack Snyder, "Rationality at the Brink," XXX World Politics 3:345-65 on Strategic Analysis: Robert Axelrod, "Effective Choice in the Prisoner's Dilemma," XXIV Journal of Conflict Resolution 1:3-26 on Processual Analysis: C.B. Pepper, "Kidnapped, "New York Times Magazine, 20 November 1977 on Integrative Analysis: Daniel Druckman, "Stages, Turning Points and Crises," XXX JCR 2:327-60 (1986). and on Behavioral Analysis: Bertram Spector, "Psychological Types;" and for review, Zartman, "In Search of Common Elements." All books are on reserve. Thorough bibliographies are found in the first texts. Books with the * are available for purchase. Readings with a are on electronic reserve (password: strength04). Books with a + are classics, out of print and worth buying if a used copy can be found. Items marked with are recommended readings. Each student will give an analytical report explaining the outcome of one of the cases (sessions 10-14) using one of the specific analytical approaches. There will also be a term paper analyzing a negotiation case of the students choosing and using the concepts learned in the course to explain the outcome. Two copies of the 30-page typed paper are due by 14 May; late papers will not be accepted. Students should consult with the instructor about the topic. Papers should be documented (footnotes) explanations of a particular case outcome, making full and explicit use of the concepts presented in lectures and readings.

1. Negotiation as a Decision-Making Mode 22 January What are the different ways in which decisions can be made? What are the defining characteristics as a decision-making mode? What are the ingredients of the negotiation process? How has the study of diplomacy and negotiation evolved? What types of questions were asked earlier and currently? How can questions of determination, explanation and causation be answered in regard to negotiation? How can power questions be asked in regard to negotiation? How can you grasp an elephant? Druckman, "Negotiating" + Hopmann, Negotiation Process, 1, 3 Young, Negotiation Analysis chap. 1 Zartman & Berman, The Practical Negotiator, 1 Zartman, The Negotiation Process, Introduction and 4 Zartman, 50% Solution, Intro 2. Structural Analysis 29 January How can power structures be described for the analysis of negotiation? How do power structures affect tactics? How can power structures be changed? What effects do such changes and attempts have on the rhythm of negotiations? What effects do internal power structures have on tactics? What other elements besides the structure of possessions and abilities are subsumed under structural analysis? Kremenyuk, International Negotiation, chap 5 Zartman & Rubin, Power and Negotiation, chap. 1, 11 &12 Shell, Bargaining I 6 Thompson, Mind &Heart, 3, 7 Snyder & Diesing, Conflict Among Nations pp. 256-75 Hopmann, Negotiation Process, Chap 7 Swingle, Structure of Conflict chaps 3, 4, 5 (Young, Bargaining pp. 5, 319, 343) (Zartman, 50% Solution, II: chaps 2 and 3; III: chaps 1 and 3) Zartman & Berman, The Practical Negotiator, chap 6 Case: 50% Solution, III: chap 2 on Malta 3. Strategic Analysis 5 February How can value structures be described for the analysis of negotiations? When do parties want to negotiate? How can their value structures be changed? How can their strategic choices be changed? What are the assumptions of strategic analysis? How do value structures affect tactics? Axelrod, "Prisoner's Dilemma" Brams, Superpower Games, pp 1-61 Hopmann, Negotiation Process, chap. 4 Kremenyuk, International Negotiation, chap. 13 Young, Negotiation Analysis, chapters 4, 7 Thompson, Mind &Heart, 11, App. 1 (Rubin & Brown, The Social Psychology of Bargaining and Negotiation, chap. 6) Snyder & Diesing, Conflict Among Nations pp 408-18, 37-66, 79-129 Swingle, Structure of Conflict, chaps. 1, 7 Young, Bargaining pp. 23, 38, 53, 245, 253, 270, 319 Case: Zartman, The Negotiation Process, chap. 6 on Vietnam

4. Processual Analysis 12 February What kinds of process models are applicable to negotiations? How do security point theories differ from end point theories? What determines the differences in concession rate theories? How can these differences be used by negotiators? If constant effect theories are not applicable, what variable effect theories apply to negotiation? What are the strengths and weaknesses of process theories? When should concessions be made? What effect does prospect theory have on process? Kremenyuk, International Negotiations 12 Shell, Bargaining II Pepper, "Kidnapped" Young, Negotiation Analysis, chapters 5, 6 Hopmann, Negotiation Process, chapters 5, 10 Snyder & Diesing, Conflict Among Nations pp 33-37 Swingle, Structure of Conflict, chap. 2 Young, Bargaining pp 131, 145; 191, 219, 231 Zartman, The Negotiation Process, chaps. 1, 2, 7 Farnham, Avoiding Losses, Taking Risks, Chaps. 1 & 2 (Zartman, 50% Solution IV) Case: Pillar, Negotiating Peace, chap. 3, esp. pp 90-102, 120-143 5. Simulation To be announced

6. Behavioral Analysis 19 February What is the effect of personality on the negotiation process? What behavioral typologies are useful for understanding negotiation? How can personality be separated from process? How can behavioral patterns be changed? How does power relate to personality in negotiation? What is the role of trust in negotiation? Snell, Bargaining for Advantage, all de Callieres, On the Manner of Negotiating with Princes Filley, Interpersonal Conflict Resolution Hopmann, Negotiation Process, chapter 8 Nicolson, Diplomacy, chaps 2-5 Thompson, Heart and Mind 5, 6, 10 Rubin & Brown, The Social Psychology, chap. 7-8 Snyder & Diesing, Conflict Among Nations pp 297-310, 332-39 Spector paper "Psychological Types" Swingle, Structure of Conflict, chapter 6 (Zartman, 50% Solution II.1) Zartman, The Negotiation Process, chapters 3, 9 Zartman & Berman, The Practical Negotiator, chap. 2 Case: Zartman, 50% Solution, V, chap 3: Newspaper Strike

7. Integrative Analysis 26 February When do negotiations take place? How can they be brought about? How is a ripe moment defined? How are terms of trade established in negotiation? What is the nature of a formula. How is a formula achieved? What ideas of justice are present in negotiations? What patterns of behavior are associated

with formulation? What is the role of deadline? How can it be established and changed? What are the strengths and weaknesses of working within a formula? Druckman, "Stages, Turning Points and Crisis", XXX Journal of Conflict Resolution) MacDonald & Bendahmane, Perspectives on Negotiation, chaps 5, 8 Thompson, Mind & Heart, 2, 4, 8 Hopmann, Negotiation Process, chapter 6 Young, Negotiation Analysis, chapter 2. Raiffa, Art & Science of Negotiation III (Rubin & Brown,The Social Psychology of Bargaining and Negotiation, chaps 5, 9, 10) Zartman, The Negotiation Process, chaps 4, 5, 8, 9 Zartman & Berman, The Practical Negotiator, chaps 3-5 Case: Zartman, The Negotiation Process, chap 10 Pillar, Negotiating Peace 6 (all) 8. Exam REVIEW: 4 March Zartman, Contending Approaches

Cases How can each type of analysis be applied to explain the outcome in each case? Can any of the analyses be used to show mistakes by the parties? What particular lessons for negotiating does the case illustrate? Which type of analysis is most powerful in explaining outcomes in the case? How can power be analyzed in each case? Required reading is asterisked; how does it refer to concepts discussed? 9. Cuban Missile Crisis Brams, Superpower Games, 2.1-2.4, 2.9-2.10 * Kennedy, Thirteen Days Snyder, "Rationality at the Brink," XXX World Politics Snyder & Diesing, Conflict Among Nations, index Zartman, 50% Solution, IV Oslo Dean Pruitt, ed. International Negotiation II 2: 175-278 David Makovsky, Making Peace with the PLO Jane Corbin, The Norway Channel Mahmoud Abbas, Through Secret Channels pp. 103-230 Shimon Peres, Battling for Peace pp. 281-306 * Uri Savir, The Process, pt. I Forest Hills Dispute * Cuomo, Forest Hills Diary (skip the Afterward if you must) No Class 11 March

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House-Senate Conference - AGOA 15 April Once you click on the link, hit "Text of Legislation", once you get to the next screen, click on the bill number and then "GPO's PDF". >http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d106:HE00250:/bss/d106query.html >http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d106:HE00488:/bss/d106query.html >http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d106:HE00489:/bss/d106query.html >http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d106:SN01387:/bss/d106query.html >http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=106_cong_public_l 14. South Africa Zartman, Elusive Peace pp. 147-74 * Sparks, Tomorrow is Another Country, pt I 22 April