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From: GBA Strategies Date: June 5, 2012

Meehan on Thin Ice: Pennsylvanias 7th District Up for Grabs

Pennsylvanias newly-drawn 7th Congressional District is a prime opportunity for a Democratic pickup in Novembers election. Voters in this toss-up district are not at all enthusiastic about incumbent Pat Meehan and any early support he has disintegrates almost immediately when they hear basic information about his positions on important issues. A recent survey of likely voters in PA-71 shows that, while Meehan is better known at this point than challenger George Badey, Badey has the potential to rise in dramatic fashion here if he is able to inform voters about Meehans record in Washington. Democrats Can Win in this Toss-up District Congressional race is a toss-up. In a generic Congressional contest between a Democrat and a Republican, the race is a statistical tie, with the Republican holding a slight 40 38 percent edge. But Obama and Casey have real advantages. By a 48 41 percent margin, 7th District voters choose Barack Obama over Mitt Romney in the race for President. Obama leads Romney by 23 points among Independent voters, a crucial voting block in this district. Senator Casey leads Republican Tom Smith by an even wider margin, 51 37 percent.

Meehans Early Edge Evaporates, Boosting Badey Voters not interested in sending Meehan back to Congress. More than half of the electorate can identify Congressman Meehan, but only 28 percent say that he deserves to be re-elected to Congress, while 39 percent say that someone new should get a chance. Even in Delaware Countythe Congressmans homejust 35 percent say he deserves re-election. Meehans support disintegrates. Pat Meehans initial 50 30 percent lead is incredibly soft and built almost entirely on name identification. After voters hear two statements about the Congressmans record on Medicare and womens health, his 20-point advantage disappears completely. Badey leads Meehan at this point, 41 38 percent, before most voters have even been introduced to him.

Survey conducted May 30-June 3, 2012 among 400 likely general election voters in Pennsylvanias new 7th Congressional District. Interviews were conducted with respondents on both landlines and cell phones. Findings include a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.

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