Energy Intensive Energy-Intensive Sectors of the Indian Economy

Options for Low-Carbon Development (LCD) Low Carbon Preliminary Findings

PATHWAYS FOR LOW CARBON GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Copenhagen, Denmark December 11, 2009

Indias Current Carbon Footprint

India i I di is among the top 10 emitters of CO2 th t itt f
due to the size of its economy and population, but per capita CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (2007)

India 1.2 tonnes vs. global average of 4.4 tonnes d 2 l b l f India one of 20 countries exhibiting successive decline over two subperiods

CO2 emission intensity of GDP (PPP) on par with global average

Indias development needs are massive:

400 million people who still lack access to electricity 456 million living at $1 25 a day (in 2005, U S dollars at PPP). $1.25 2005 U.S. PPP) 2007 electrical energy deficit of about 10 percent and peak shortages over 17 percent Two thirds of households rely on biomass for cooking One third of households rely on kerosene for lighting

Electricity supply is inadequate and unreliable

India Has a Scarcity of Clean and Primary Fuels

Current i t ll d capacity of 145 GW of which 77 GW (53 %) is coal-fired C t installed it f f hi h i l fi d India has plans to maximize all sources of renewable energy by 2032, and significantly increase the share of clean energy such as nuclear and solar

160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2.12 7000 16000 58 15000 2344 683 50000 5000 1033 45000

150000

36878 9755

Potential

Current Installed

source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy and Integrated Energy Policy

Scenarios and Sensitivity Analyses

Scenario 1 FiveYearPlans AverageannualGDP growth20092031 Powersectorrepairand maintenance PowerSectorexpansion T&DLossreduction Demandsectors: Industry,Household, Nonresidential,Transport 7.6% Scenario2 Delayed Implementationof SupplyMeasures" 7.6% Asscenario1 Asperplans, historically adjusted 50%slippagein cleancoal,hydro, andrenewables Delayed5years Asscenario1 Scenario3 "AllOutStretch" 7.6% Enhancedprogram Additional20GW Solar and20GW imported Hydro Accelerated10years Additionalenergy efficiencymeasuresin each sector Asscenario3plus additionalcarbonneutral electricitycapacity

SensitivityAnalyses

Asscenario1but withreducedGDP growth(6.6%)

20%slippage

Total CO2 Emissions in Scenario 1 Findings Five Year Plans Scenario

In the five I th fi sectors, CO2e emissions increase from 1.1 billion t t i i i f 1 1 billi tonnes to 4.5 billion tonnes from 2007 to 2031; carbon intensity improves by 28 percent during the same period
Billiontonnes CO2 Billi 16% 29% 4% 51% 1%

5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

2031 Gridsupplyelectricity Nonresidential Captivegeneration Roadtransport Industry

Total CO2 Emissions in Scenario 3 Findings All-out Stretch Scenario

Using technologies available on commercial basis as point of departure - lowest growth of CO2e emissions in the five sectors, increases from 1.1 to 3.7 billion tonnes from 2007 to 2031; carbon intensity improves by 41 percent during the same period
Billiontonnes CO2 16% 26% 5% 53%

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 10 0.5 0.0

2031
Captivegeneration Roadtransport Industry

Gridsupplyelectricity Nonresidential

Potential for Red cing Emissions fo Reducing

Implementing all the demand-side and supply-side I l i ll h d d id d l id measures in scenario 3 reduces emissions in 2031 by 815 million tonnes CO2
Scenario1 2,287 , 169 1,281 1 730 4,468 Scenario3 1,937 , 170 950 1 594 3,653 Decrease 350 0 330 0 136 815 %Decrease 15 0 26 0 19 18

Source Gridsupplyelectricity pp y y Captivegeneration Industry Nonresidential Roadtransport Total(in2031)

Preliminary Findings Power Sector

Grid l t i it G id electricity generated increases by 4.3 in scenario 1 and 3.9 in t di b 43i i d39i scenarios 2 and 3 Coal continues to dominate electricity generation 100 73% in Sc1 Generationfromcoal(%) 80 84% in Sc2 71% in Sc3 60
Scenario 1 40

Only drops to 38% when 132 GW of carbon-neutral capacity added

Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 3 sensitivity analysis

20 0

Preliminary Findings Power Sector

T&D l loss reduction d i
One of the most cost-effective means of improving power sector performance and reducing CO2 emissions Impact of pace of T&D Loss Reduction Program
ChangeinCO2 emissions in20072031 (milliontonnes) 568 248 1,392 Change20072031 (billion2007rupees)in investmentin 94 6 227

T&Dlossreduction implementation Acceleratedby10years Acceleratedby5years Delayedby5years

Delayed implementation, lowers capital expenditures implementation for grid by about 15 percent - if shortfall is supplied by greater captive

Emerging Conclusions and Implications on Growth

Vast expansion needs for power generation V i d f i
4 to 6 times 2007 levels by 2031 More than 5 times 2007 levels by 2031

Explosive growth in transport fuel needs as a natural consequence of income growth and greater availability and delivery of basic services Despite Indian consumption expected to remain frugal:
Richest third of urban households in 2031 consuming one third of the EU average current electricity consumption Per capita consumption of the industry products in 2030 no higher than per capita world production in 2006 Car ownership in 2031 of 86 / 1000, significantly lower than 300 765 / 1000 observed in most high-income countries today

Emerging Conclusions a d Implications o e g g Co c us o s and p cat o s on Development

Success f S factors f a l for lower-carbon development in all b d l i ll major sectors include:
Comprehensive and large-scale changes in investment, p g g , performance, and governance, particularly in the power sector Improvement in implementation achievement targets Strong coordination of institutions across all levels of governmentfederal, state, and municipal Enhanced performance of the relevant institutions Setting up a reliable monitoring and evaluation system one can anticipate even faster emissions growth over time compared to Scenario 2 where CO2e emissions increase from 1.1 billion tonnes to 4.7 billion tonnes from 2007 to 2031.

Without any of the above elements,

Emerging Conclusions and Implications on Transport

Mitigation i Mi i i is particularly difficult i l l diffi l
Due to low private vehicle ownership rates coupled with exploding urban populations and rapid economic growth How it is implemented today will lock India into development pathways that may be difficult to change Difficult but fundamental changes that transform land use and transit policies i li i Adoption of high fuel economy and tight local emission standards, critical for new vehicles

Transport infrastructures has long operational life

Mitigation requires

Emerging Conclusions a d Implications o C ea e g g Co c us o s and p cat o s on Clean Energy

The fi di Th findings in this study underscore the challenge of expanding i thi t d d th h ll f di energy access and meeting energy needs, at affordable costs, and with limited global environmental impact within the menu of technological options currently available Study does not allow making conclusive statements about the costs of achieving different future carbon trajectories
But h B t shows possibilities for significant improvements in energy ibiliti f i ifi ti t i efficiency in many sectors, with low or potentially negligible costs

Decision makers in India will have to carefully consider the costs, benefits and risks of different transformative cleaner-energy transformative options, notably
enhance regional trade in cleaner energy sources Deploy aggressively new and emerging carbon-neutral energy sources

Energy Intensive Energy-Intensive Sectors of the Indian Economy

Options for Low-Carbon Development (LCD) Low Carbon Preliminary Findings

PATHWAYS FOR LOW CARBON GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Copenhagen, Denmark December 11, 2009