Prognoza unui fenomen, analiza tendinelor, analiza varianelor sezoniere Studierea evoluiei n timp a unui fenomen a fost realizat

cu o noua baz de date n care sunt prezentate noptrile hotelului lunare, pe o perioad de 4 ani, din 2007 pn n 2010.

Model Description Model Name Series or Sequence Transformation Non-Seasonal Differencing Seasonal Differencing Length of Seasonal Period Horizontal Axis Labels Intervention Onsets Reference Lines Area Below the Curve Applying the model specifications from MOD_2 Data None None Not filled 1 MOD_2 Numarul de inoptari pe luna None 0 0 12

Case Processing Summary Numarul de inoptari pe luna Series or Sequence Length Number of Missing Values in User-Missing the Plot System-Missing 48 0 0

Analiznd datele, am observat c exist o tendin de cretere a vnzrilor, acestea fluctueaz de la o lun la alta i sunt influenate de momentele anului, manifestndu-se o component sezonier; se aplic modelul multiplicativ. y= * trendul componenta sezonier Pentru a afla distana ntre dou maxime succesive, aplicm autocorelaia i autocorelaia parial.
Model Description Model Name Series Name Transformation Non-Seasonal Differencing Seasonal Differencing Length of Seasonal Period Maximum Number of Lags Process Assumed for Calculating the Standard Independence(white noise) Errors of the Autocorrelations Display and Plot Applying the model specifications from MOD_4 a. Not applicable for calculating the standard errors of the partial autocorrelations. All lags
a

MOD_4 1 Numarul de inoptari pe luna None 0 0 12 16

Case Processing Summary Numarul de inoptari pe luna Series Length Number of Missing Values User-Missing System-Missing Number of Valid Values Number of Computable First Lags 48 0 0 48 47

Autocorrelations Series:Numarul de inoptari pe luna Box-Ljung Statistic Lag 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Autocorrelation .248 -.195 .065 -.002 -.048 -.031 -.070 -.014 -.144 -.264 .268 .487 -.067 -.189 -.024 -.108 Std. Error
a

Value 3.152 5.141 5.368 5.368 5.496 5.551 5.836 5.847 7.124 11.534 16.205 32.036 32.347 34.877 34.917 35.793

df 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Sig.

.140 .138 .137 .135 .134 .132 .131 .129 .127 .126 .124 .122 .121 .119 .117 .115

.076 .077 .147 .252 .358 .475 .559 .664 .624 .317 .134 .001 .002 .002 .003 .003

a. The underlying process assumed is independence (white noise). b. Based on the asymptotic chi-square approximation.

Partial Autocorrelations Series:Numarul de inoptari pe luna Partial Lag 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Autocorrelation .248 -.274 .225 -.181 .103 -.129 .005 -.022 -.199 -.156 .429 .224 -.177 Std. Error .144 .144 .144 .144 .144 .144 .144 .144 .144 .144 .144 .144 .144

14 15 16

-.121 -.116 -.097

.144 .144 .144

Perioada sezonier este 12 luni. Pentru a afla coeficienii de sezonalitatea, aplicm Seasonal Decomposition.
Model Description Model Name Model Type Series Name 1 MOD_5 Multiplicative Numarul de inoptari pe luna 12 Span equal to the periodicity and all points weighted equally Applying the model specifications from MOD_5

Length of Seasonal Period Computing Method of Moving Averages

Seasonal Factors Series Name:Numarul de inoptari pe luna Seasonal Factor Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (%) 74.6 67.7 118.9 74.3 78.2 102.5 101.2 98.2 80.5 95.6 125.6 182.6

Coeficienii de sezonalitate care sunt mai mari de 100, ne arat c vnzrile nregistreaz creteri, iar cei care au valori sub 100 nregistreaz scderi. Astfel coeficienii care nregistreaz creteri sunt cei din luna martie, iunie, iulie, noiembrie i decembrie. n luna decembriee se nregistreaz cele mai mari vnzri. Dorim s aflm care sunt tendinele de cretere a seriei ajustate de sezonalitate.