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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE

Change and the Heartland


Big issues, bite-size lessons

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Timely, Expert Environmental Crops? Articles How Will All That Extra C02 Affect Change
esearchers at the University of Illinois prepared accessible articles about how environmental change may impact the Midwest. The brief articles are paired with graphics and presented as approachable, digestible front-andback color handouts. We need your help getting these articles out to the public. Either as PDFs or prints. Heres why its worth the effort. Content Based on Sound Science Every day, people are bombarded with misinformation about environmental change. Often, this misinformation is more accessible and better presented than the hard science that should be guiding policy. Change and the Heartland makes that science accessible and relates current ideas and terminology to issues important to the public. Timely Stories Tackle Vital Issues While Contextualizing Environmental Change Basics By discussing issues that directly affect every day life, Change and the Heartland speaks to a broad audience. Contextualizing environmental change concepts makes the material more useful, compelling and teachable. Bright, Layered Design Reinforces Key Concepts Change and the Heartland uses popped headers, graphics and calculated repetition to reinforce key concepts. Readers are rewarded at all levels of effort, from a cursory skimming to a deep reading. Dedicated readers will finish with an understanding of essential environmental change concepts and vocabulary. Join Illinois Environmental Change Institute in Distributing This Work If you can contribute to this effort or a second series please contact Editor Dr. Michelle Wander: mwander@illinois.edu

19 Researchers 17 Topics
Dr. Lisa Ainsworth and Kelly Gillespie: Corn, Beans and CO2 Dr. Jeff Brawn : Bird Population Shifts Dr. Clark Bullard : Habitat Fragmentation Dr. Brian Deal and Robert Boyer: Climate Savvy Urban Planning Dr. Wes Jarrell : Climate and Food Security Dr. Madhu Khanna : The Economics of Miscanthus Dr. Mindy Mallory : Emissions Offsets and Uncertainty Dr. John Marlin : Climate Change and Native Pollinators Dr. Steffen Meller : Corn Ethanol vs Gasoline Dr. Richard Mulvaney, Dr. Saeed Khan, Dr. Tim Ellsworth: Fertilizer and Soil Carbon Dr. Thomas Overbye : The Future of Power Generation Dr. Robert Pahre : Free Market Land Management Dr. Jrgen Scheffran : Climate Change and Global Security Dr. Cory Suski : Climate Change and Aquatic Habitats Dr. Michelle Wander and Dr. Carmen Ugarte: Climate Friendly Cropping Practices Dr. Donald Wuebbles : Climate Projection for 2050

Change and the Heartland was developed by the University of Illinois Agroecology and Sustain- Editor: Michelle Wander mwander@illinois.edu able Agriculture Program for The Environmental Change Institute at Illinois. asap.sustainability. Editor: John E. Marlin jmarlin@illinois.edu Design: Crystal Bartanen and John E. Marlin uiuc.edu : eci.illinois.edu

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

How Will All That Extra C02 Affect Crops?

magine that the atmosphere is a buffet for plants, one that provides the carbon dioxide (CO2) they use to produce sugars. What if every day that buffet served up a little bit more CO2 for plants to eat? Would the plants grow faster, become larger? Or is it possible for plants to overeat or overheat? A unique experiment at the University of Illinois is answering this question. The Soybean Free-Air Gas Concentration Enrichment experiment (SoyFACEsoyface.illinois.edu) is growing soybeans and corn at concentrations of CO2 expected for the year 2050. The soybeans and corn are grown according to standard agricultural practices and are not isolated from other environmental factors such as rainfall, sunlight, and insects. Soybean Yields May Increase 15%

Key Term

Carbon Fertilization
A common trick in greenhouses is to give plants extra carbon dioxide. Some plants can use that extra CO2 to produce extra food and grow faster. This is known as carbon fertilization. Now, as cars, factories, and powerplants pump CO2 into the atmosphere of greenhouse Earth, CO2 is fertilizing plants on a global scale. CO2 fertilization doesnt affect all plants equally. In general, this global increase in CO2 will give a boost to trees and shrubs, but not to some grasses. For crops, CO2 fertilization may boost soybean yields, but it will probably not affect corn yields. DeLucias laboratory is that plants grown in elevated CO2 are preferred by insects. Beetles eat more leaves, live longer, and have more offspring when feeding on leaves grown at high CO2. This is true for two reasons. Soybeans grown at elevated CO2 have higher sugar content, and they shut down a key natural insect defense pathway. So not only are insects attracted to the tastier leaves, it appears that the leaves dont put up a ght while theyre chewed. In addition to rising CO2, ozone (O3) concentrations at the ground level are increasing, and SoyFACE is studying this change. Ozone at ground level is generated when smog reacts with sunlight. Unfortunately,

SoyFace has provided the unprecedented ability to investigate yield responses of soybean and corn grown at high CO2 under real eld-scale conditions. The results so far have been clear and consistent: elevated CO2 at levels anticipated for 2050 improves soybean yields by 15% and has no effect on corn yields. Both Corn and Soybeans May Be More Drought-Resistant Both crops have improved soil moisture when grown at elevated CO2, suggesting that they might be more drought-tolerant in the future. Increased Ozone and Pests May Negate CO2 Benets The SoyFACE story about changing climate is not completely rosy. An unexpected result from the experiment done by Evan

Corn and Beans

Changing the Air They Eat

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


ozone does not always form where the smog is produced. Smog can travel hundreds of miles before it reacts with sunlight, which effectively increases the concentration of ozone in rural areas, including much of the midwestern corn belt. Ozone will react with any living tissue to cause oxidative damage and, in plants, ozone decreases photosynthetic carbon gain. In the SoyFACE experiment, elevated ozone concentrations have caused an average 17% reduction in soybean seed yield. Therefore, while future elevated CO2 levels alone might increase yield, increased herbivory and elevated levels of atmospheric ozone will decrease yield and possibly negate benets derived from rising CO2. Why Does Extra Carbon Dioxide Improve Yields for Beans But Not Corn? The impact of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant and crop growth and production has been a major research interest around the world because plants use atmospheric CO2 to build the carbon-based molecules that humans and all other animals rely on for growth. Additionally, climate change factors such as rising temperature and increasing drought stress will reduce future crop yields, while rising CO2 has been considered a potential silver lining of global climate change. How different crops respond to rising CO2 depends on the process of photosynthesis. Plants convert CO2 and water into sugar molecules and oxygen in the presence of light. Our worlds entire food web depends on photosynthesis for the basic building blocks of life. This is why plant physiological response to climate change is a focus of research. For many plants, including soybeans (referred to as C3 plants), the rst step in photosynthetic carbon xation involves an enzyme called Rubisco (ribulose 1,5 carboxylase/oxygenase). Corn and many other grasses (called C4 plants) rely on a different enzyme (phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase) to take up CO2 before releasing it in specialized cells for uptake by Rubisco. Even though Rubisco is the most abundant enzyme on earth, it is currently running under capacity in C3 plants because atmospheric CO2 levels are not high enough to maximize the rate at which R can convert CO2. Increasing the supply of CO2 to C3 plants will increase the rate of Rubiscos reaction and the subsequent production of sugars.

Ozone Negates C02 Bene ts

Blue: Extra CO2 boosted soybean yields 15% Red: Extra ozone decreased soybean yields 17% CO2 fertilization did not signicantly boost corn yield

In C4 plants, CO2 is concentrated in specialized cells that contain Rubisco. This concentration mechanism means that rising atmospheric CO2 wont directly benet C4 photosynthesis. Thus, C4 crops such as corn and sorghum are predicted to be less responsive to rising CO2 than C3 crops, which include wheat and soybean. Why Does Extra CO2 Increase Drought Resistance? Increased access to CO2 can have a signicant inuence on drought tolerance in both C3 and C4 crops. Leaf surfaces in both types of plant are covered in tiny pores, called stomata, which open and close to allow CO2 to diffuse into the leaf. When these pores are open, water vapor escapes. Plants grown with elevated CO2 do not need to open their stomata as much to satisfy CO2 needs, so less water is lost. This increases whole-plant water use efciency and allows both C3 and C4 crops to maintain higher photosynthetic rates during times of drought.
About the Researchers Dr. Lisa Ainsworth is an assistant professor of plant biology and adjunct in crop sciences and with the USDA-ARS at the University of Illinois. Kelly Gillespie is a PhD candidate in physiological and molecular plant biology working under Dr. Ainsworth.
Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

How Will Climate Change Affect Birds?

ow climate change will affect birds is a complicated topic, owing to the diversity of bird species. In Illinois alone, there are well over 400 species recorded, and this list includes species associated with forests, oak savannas, grasslands, shrublands, aquatic ecosystems, and urban environments. Moreover, there are species that live in Illinois all year round, some that are here only in the winter, and many that migrate here to breed. The migrants include those that travel comparatively short distances, often arriving from the southern U.S., and the long-distance neotropical migrants that y great distances from Central or South America. With all these species and their diverse lifestyles, there are local issues regarding climate change and other phenomena that are far more extensive in geographic scope. Climate Change May Affect Food Availability Bird Migration Routes Faster Than Birds Can Adapt One feature common to all bird species is that over evolutionary time, birds of northern or temperate latitudes have adapted to seasonal changes in food availability and temperature. As a result, birds time their annual cycles of breeding and migration to match their need for resources with availability of resources. For example, birds time nesting so that food (mainly arthropods) will be at peak availability when they are feeding their young. Numerous studies have shown that rapid climate change can lead to mismatches in timing between peak resource availability and bird activity. For many species, the physiological changes that prepare birds to breed or migrate are induced partly by predictable changes in day length from winter to spring. The timing of these events can therefore be rather inexible. The onset of spring and increases in temperature may be advanced with climate change, however, and this could affect when food

Key Term

Indicator Species
An indicator species is any biological species whose presence, absence, or abundance can tell you something about its environment. Biologists use indicator species to determine ecosystem or environmental integrity. Birds have been used as bioindicators because their ecology is well understood and the relationships between their growth and development and food supply are tightly linked. Birds feed at all levels of the ecological pyramid and are relatively easy to observe. Earlier breeding and brooding of cardinals is an indication of increased food supplies caused by climate changeinduced warming.

Birds Cope

becomes available for birds. There is thus signicant potential for birds to mistime their activities and as a result to suffer decreases in survival, breeding success, or both. The complicated annual cycle of long-distance migrants renders them especially vulnerable to temporal mismatching of resource need and availability. In Illinois, this group comprises dozens of species and includes most of the warblers, vireos, orioles, thrushes, and swallows. These species depart from their wintering grounds with no information about environmental conditions in the north. Some simply pass through our region for a few weeks on their way to more northern breeding grounds, but many settle and breed in Illinois. Like all birds, migrants need ample food when they are breeding, but they have added needs during migration, which

with Environmental Change

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


is very energetically expensive. The availability of food on migratory stopover sites is therefore deemed critical for long-distance migrants. Birds time their migration to synchronize their arrival at such sites with the spring emergence of insects, especially caterpillars. The timing of bud break, leaf growth, and insect emergence responds to variation in spring temperature and precipitation warmer usually means earlier. Birds migrating from southern regions may arrive when they cannot exploit peak abundances of arthropods. Less food means that birds must extend stopover times until they can get refueled. Studies done at the University of Illinois clearly demonstrate the potential of problems for migratory birds. Dr. Paul Strode examined long-term trends in the timing of when migratory birds arrive in the Midwest, and he found that the availability of food for migrating birds is changing rapidly. Birds have to spend more time refueling at southern stopover sites, which has led to a nearly 3-week decrease in the window of time they have to reach their breeding grounds. Climate Change May Put Bird Breeding Times Out of Sync with Food Availability

Land Use and Climate Changes Impact Bird Populations, Especially Migratory Birds
In the 1900s and 1950s, scientists from the Illinois Natural History Survey systematically surveyed birds across Illinois. Over the last three years we repeated this survey. One of the interesting results is that 16 of the 82 species for which we have 8species expanding sufcient data to conduct analy8species south ses have expanded their ranges. expanding Of these species, 8 went north north and 8 went south. A common trait among many of those species was their frequent use of urban habitats. Additionally, 73% of resident species (birds that do not migrate south in winter) that were not present statewide in the 1900s expanded their range by the 2000s. In contrast, only 18% of migratory birds expanded their range. Changes in land use have had the largest impact on species ranges, and this trend is likely to continue. The three resident species that have not expanded their ranges are likely limited by cold winters, and global climate change is expected to allow these species to expand north. The greatest concern for the future is associated with migratory birds. These species are often of conservation concern and appear to be less adaptable to changes in land use and climate. It will be important to preserve the habitats they require and develop strategies that could help them adapt to the changing environment.

Figure

theIllinois surveyed werepeat isthat16 conducta species,8 thatexpa species,w werespec amongm southwas Additiona migrateso statewide 2000s.In expanded thelarges likelytoc notexpan winters,a thesespe thefuture speciesar tobeless Inthefutu habitatst couldhelp environm

Migration is energetically costly, but no bird activity is more demanding than breeding. Breeding too early or too late with respect to food could lead to signicant population declines. Studies from Illinois are needed on this important topic, but work in the agricultural landscapes of Europe indicates that certain species can adjust the timing of their breeding effort, but others suffer reduced breeding success and lower survival rates of adults. Extrapolating to nearDr. Mike Ward, visiting assistant professor in the Department term changes predicted under even the most optimistic cliof Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois mate models suggests that many insect-eating birds will experience important differences between the time when they have expanded northward over the last 100 years. Several need food and the time when it is most plentiful. factors likely contribute to these shifts, but there is little doubt that long-term climate change will add to signicant Climate-Induced Habitat Shifts Could Signicantly changes in where we nd birds in our state. Affect Bird Distribution Throughout the Midwest Monitoring the status of bird populations and their habiA changing climate will also change the distributions tats will be essential as climate-induced changes develop. and geographic ranges of many terrestrial ecosystems. Cer- With this information, biologists will be better able to mantain plant species will become more common in Illinois, age habitats and landscapes to preserve the avifauna of the some will be unaffected, and others will become rare or region. locally extinct. Habitat for birds will be created or lost, and this will certainly lead to changes in the distribution of About the Researcher Dr. Jeff Brawn is a professor and head of the Department of birds in the region. Long-term studies in Illinois indicate Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences at the Univerthat the distributions of, for example, certain forest birds are surprisingly uid and rapid. Northern cardinals, for one, sity of Illinois.
Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu. Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Can Our Wildlife Shift Along with the Climate?

very nation on earth is debating what to do about global warming: how to stop it, and how to adapt to the warming thats already under way. Even the most aggressive and costly proposals to stop global warming will leave us with a warmer world in 2100. If we do nothing, Illinoiss climate will resemble that of east Texas. The effects of climate on agriculture and industry have received great attention, while its inuences on wildlife and habitat have been largely ignored. Illinois Once Had Unbroken Corridors of Habitat for Species to Move Along as Climate Changed Our pioneer ancestors settled into an Illinois ecosystem that had survived more gradual climate changes over millennia. The unbroken corridors of riparian forests and wetlands that lined the river valleys allowed wildlife and their food supplies to adapt and migrate. Over time, however, these corridors were severed, as the USDA and the Army Corps of Engineers made bottomlands safe for row crops by draining lands and modifying drainage. Species May Be Unable to Adapt to Climate Change What will happen to the wildlife and wildowers and trees that are trapped in these tiny, fragmented, and isolated habitats across Illinois? Some kinds of birds and animals can move their homes 500 miles in a century, but what about the whole food chain of animals and plants on which they depend? Can these healthy ecosystems move intact across miles of cropland 5 miles a year60 feet a day, every single day? If they cannot, they will perish as a result of global warming. Even the most optimistic scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions will not signicantly improve this bleak outlook for wildlife. Due to the accumulated emissions and inertia in the

Key Term

Adaptation
Adaptation is a strategy undertaken to prevent or cope with damage from climate change. Biocorridors are an important example of climate change adaptation. They allow plants and animals to respond to climate shifts by migrating in search of survivable conditions. There are three different kinds of biocorridors: line corridors, strip corridors, and habitat corridors. Line corridors allow for movement, but the width is too thin for interior species to live there. Strip corridors are wide enough to allow interior species to live and thrive. Habitat corridors are big enough for reproduction to occur.

system, Illinoiss climate would still move about 250 miles per centuryonly 30 feet a day instead of 60. For most plants and animals, that too is impossible to negotiate without contiguous corridors in which species can migrate. Changing Land Management Could Create Contiguous NorthSouth Migration Corridors So as we change the way we manage agricultural land, we must mitigate some of the habitat fragmentation by providing contiguous northsouth migration corridors that will minimize species extinctions and protect the biodiversity that is our natural heritage. To accomplish this we need to change the policy framework, and for that we need a shared vision of a landscape that citizens embrace. The costs need not be prohibitive.

Escape Routes

for Wildlife As Habitats Heat Up


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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


Siting Corridors Near Rivers Could Provide Flood Control and Spawning Ground for Commercial Freshwater Fish The most cost-effective locations for migration corridors are along rivers, where land is least costly and where most of our remaining biodiversity exists. As national energy policies make production of biofuels more attractive than row crops, many river bottoms could be converted to production of woody biomass for cellulosic ethanol. Planting ood-tolerant species that are also good wildlife habitat could allow levees to be breached to reconnect the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers with their oodplains. Then federal funds otherwise needed to raise levees in St. Louis and New Orleans could subsidize oodplain forests that could not only store spring oodwaters, but also provide spawning habitat to revive the commercial freshwater shing industry. Siting Along Small Rivers and Streams Decreases Farmland But Provides Recreational and Ecological Benets Along smaller rivers and headwater streams the challenge is greater, because the land is more valuable. The threat is greater, too: as food and biofuel compete for nite land, fencerow-to-fencerow farming is expanding from streambank to streambank. Here new policies might aim to offset the cost of lost agricultural production by restoring natural habitats along corridors in a way that provides additional benets, such as public access for shing, walking, cycling, and other outdoor recreation. These corridors could extend back a couple hundred yards from small rivers, while even the smallest tributary streams could be lined with narrow strips of native trees or grasses. Some states already prohibit grazing and logging near rivers and streams to protect water quality and biodiversity. Siting Corridors Along Highways Could Also Promote Migration

Streambank-to-Streambank Planting Destroys Habitat Corridor Near Spoon River

2003

2005
plant and insect species to migrate. Illinois has already begun to plant prairie grasses along some state and interstate highways to promote that vital migration. Sound Policy Makes Successful Corridors

Its not too late to start discussing visions like this, debating their costs and benets and how they will be shared. If we change the policy framework and do it right, we all Siting corridors along highways could also be part of the have a lot to gain. If we fail to act, we stand to lose whats solution. Currently, the sheer scale of interconnected high- left of Illinoiss natural heritage. ways blocks migration corridors for some kinds of animals except where drainage culverts allow passage. On the other About the Researcher hand, if paired with habitat, this scale and connectivity can Clark Bullard is a research professor in the Department of be an advantage, providing opportunities for some kinds Mechanical Science and Engineering at the University of Illinois.
Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu. Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Can Tall Grass Miscanthus Replace Coal?

heres been a lot of talk about the benets of growing the tall grass Miscanthus on midwestern farms. It requires few chemical inputs, sequesters carbon, and can be burned as renewable energy in coal power plants. Some think Miscanthus could join corn and beans as a staple crop. But is it protable? Would Miscanthus help farmers earn enough money to keep their farms? Its a complicated question, but agricultural economists at the University of Illinois have been crunching the numbers. The short answer is no. Coal is cheap, and it could cost twice as much to produce the same energy with Miscanthus. The long answer is that there are no short answers. Coal is cheap, but it has hidden costs. Miscanthus is expensive, but it has hidden benets. To capture those benets, the state or federal government might use policies to reward farmers who grow Miscanthus and power plants that burn it. Madhu Khanna and her colleagues have studied the potential for Miscanthus in Illinois. The research, funded by the Dudley Smith Initiative and the Illinois Council on Food and Agricultural Research, examines different ways that the government might support Miscanthus, the costs of subsidizing it, and how farmers might respond to these subsidies. Miscanthus Is Relatively Expensive But Better for Climate Right now you need to burn $1.12 worth of coal to produce 1 gigajoule of energy in Illinois. It would cost at least $2.30 to get that same energy by burning Miscanthus. But coal has a relatively large carbon footprint. If you substitute Miscanthus for coal, the footprint is much smaller. This is because burning Miscanthus to produce 1 gigajoule of energy emits a much smaller quantity of carbon emissions than burning coal. Moreover, Miscanthus emits contemporary carbon,

Key Term

Contemporary Carbon
When you burn Miscanthus it releases a lot of CO2, just like coal does. So why does it have a smaller carbon footprint? The answer lies in the carbons origin. The carbon in coal comes from deep within the Earth. When we release it into the atmosphere, it increases the overall amount thats up there. The carbon in Miscanthus was pulled from the atmosphere the same year the plant grew. When we burn Miscanthus were just recycling carbon the plant took up through photosynthesis. Carbon thats already circulating in the atmosphere is known as contemporary carbon and is not included in carbon accounting. The ideal power plant would release no carbon at all. But if you have to choose between releasing ancient carbon from coal and zero-cycle carbon from plants, contemporary carbon is the better choice.

whereas coal emits carbon that has been long sequestered underground. There are a number of ways that state and federal governments can convince power plants to make this climate-savvy substitution. Billion-Dollar Subsidy Mitigates 11% of Coal Power Plant Emissions What if you wanted 5% of Illinois energy to come from Miscanthus? This would require a $1 billion subsidy over 15 years (based on 2003 prices), reduce CO2 emissions from coal power plants by 11% over 15 years, and cause 1.7% of Illinois cropland to be

Miscanthus

Economics of a Tall Grass

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


switched to Miscanthus. If you wanted 13% of Illinois energy to come from Miscanthus, you would need to spend $3.7 billion in subsidies over 15 years and would reduce emissions from coal plants by 20%. Government Support Could Be Mandates, Carbon Tax, or Cap-and-Trade Instead of subsidizing the use of bioenergy, the government could establish other policies to encourage the use of biomass by power plants. For example, it could mandate that power plants get 5% of their energy from biomass. This would create demand for Miscanthus and raise the price that power plants would be willing to pay for it, thereby creating incentives for farmers to grow it. Alternatively, CO2 emissions could be taxed, which would increase the cost of carbon-intensive coal, making Miscanthus an attractive option for power plants. Policies could also set caps for emissions from coal power plants and create incentives for plants to obtain tradable carbon credits. Credits could be earned by replacing some portion of coal with biomass, which would increase the willingness of power plants to buy CO2-mitigating Miscanthus even if it is more expensive than coal. Their willingness would increase with the value of their credits. Khannas study found that if the goal of these policies is mitigating CO2 emissions through ring Miscanthus in coal power plants, the carbon tax or a cap-and-trade policy would be the most cost-effective way to support the production and use of this crop. No matter which policy the government chooses, Khannas research can project where Miscanthus production is likely to be viable in Illinois given its yields and costs.

Figure4a.AcreageofMiscanthusat$2.8/GJand15%CofiringLimit

Miscanthus Mostly in Southern Illinois

With $1 billion in government support, Miscanthus could occupy 1.7% of Illinoiss productive acreage, mostly in the south. That acreage could generate 5% of the states electricity and reduce emissions from coal power plants by 11%.

canthus as much. And if breeding or technology increases the yield of Miscanthus, it will be more competitive with coal. Also, coal power plants might learn how to burn Miscanthus in higher proportions with coal. Coal power plants can only co-re biomass with coal in blends of 5% to 25%. As the blend rate increased, the demand for Miscanthus would increase. And, of course, crop prices could affect Miscanthus Mostly in South, Close to Power Plants these scenarios. If corn production became highly protFor starters, more Miscanthus will be grown in southern Il- able, farmers would be less willing to make the switch to linois than northern. Miscanthus likes warm weather. It yields Miscanthus. Growing Miscanthus for electricity production in Illimore in the south, and that would make it more competitive nois is probably not viable without government support. against coal. Miscanthus would also be grown close to coal plants, probably within 35 miles, because transporting it lon- If that support comes, Miscanthus will be grown more in southern regions and close to power plants, and it will reger distances increases both costs and its carbon footprint. quire at least $1 billion of subsidy over 15 years. Coal Prices, Climate Shifts, and Innovation Could About the Researcher Affect Miscanthus Adoption A few things could affect these results. If the cost of coal goes up, the government wont need to support MisDr. Madhu Khanna is a professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics and the Energy Biosciences Institute, Institute of Genomic Biology.
Editors:

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Will Urban Planning Change with the Climate?

s our cities expand, so do the ills that accompany unplanned growth and dependence on automobiles. These hidden costs have begun to reveal themselves in the form of auto congestion, productivity losses, dwindling municipal budgets (and consequently higher taxes), respiratory illnesses, rising gasoline prices, accident deaths, obesity, and climate change. Climate Change Hastened by GrowBuildDrive Cycle of Conventional Urban Planning The connection between land use and climate change thus grows unfortunately apparent as we destroy increasingly more natural carbon sinks (prairie, wetlands, and forest) to clear land for constructing more buildings (that we burn fossil fuels to heat, cool, and power) to which we must drive (burning more fossil fuels). Reversing this unsustainable growbuilddrive cycle will require fundamental changes in the way our communities plan and operate. But will we recognize a better alternative when we see one? Can we be sure that the decisions we make today dont imperil our childrens ability to make decisions in the future? Can we determine the future effects that our complex and ever-evolving urban areas will have on valued existing services? Yes, we can, but doing so requires our being able to . . . Forecast potential future changes to our cities Identify important existing resources and services Understand how the potential future changes will affect these resources and services

Key Term

Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is a method of strategic planning that some organizations use to make exible, long-term plans. Typically this technique relies on systems thinking to develop plausible scenarios or story lines that describe causal relationships between factors of concern. Scenarios are designed so that they are both possible and uncomfortable. The goal is to help communities anticipate hidden weaknesses and inexibilities in organizations along with deciencies in policy or infrastructure.

Considering Multiple Alternative Scenarios Improves Land Use and Urban Planning To address this challenge, our multidisciplinary research team at the University of Illinois is developing tools that groups can use to engage in forecasting and scenario building to predict the likelihood of land use change throughout a region and to understand the localized urban impacts of that change. Developing tools to enable planning is essential to address wicked problems like climate change. Such problems are complex, and they include aspects and outcomes that are ambiguous and tradeoffs that can be morally and politically divisive. Other systemic problems that are similarly wicked include urban crime, the AIDS virus, racism, and the lack of affordable housing. Like with climate change, their effects on society can be mitigated, to be sure, but solutions will likely require foresight and generations of public investment.

Cities Plan

for a Changing Climate

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Navigating the uncertainty of wicked problems requires a exibility and persistence that cannot be addressed in a single round of policy. Accordingly, the eld of urban planning has begun to adopt a new framework of problem solving called scenario planning that instead forecasts multiple futures so that local leaders can prescribe multiple solutions to a spectrum of possible problems. Scenario planning helps communities engage in difcult decision making by forecasting multiple likely futures, identifying the challenges inherent in each, and crafting policies and plans to address those challenges. New Tools Allow Flexibility, Community Input, and Continuous Calibration of Land Use Plans Our tool, the Land Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model (LEAM), develops scenarios that let users glimpse likely futures. Its greatest value is that it can be used for reiterative planning where local planners, land owners, and resident stakeholders participate in developing scenarios. LEAM was used in Peoria, Illinois, to help citizens and planners arrive at a consensus on infrastructure and investment. The scenarios developed helped reveal and resolve critical environmental stresses that could have been created by proposed development actions and exacerbated by climate change. Peoria is a central Illinois city of about 300,000 people nestled in the Illinois River valley and surrounded on all sides by prime farmland. New planning questions emerged as it became clear that the proposed infrastructure strategy would conict with farmland protection and preservation of the scenic and environmentally sensitive river bluffs. Conicts between community goals became apparent only when all three policies were modeled simultaneously. Simulations indicated that the farm protection strategy, a type of rural zoning, would increase the likelihood of development on the treasured bluffs. By simply enacting bluff protection before enacting the rural zoning standards, both the bluffs and the rural farmland were preserved. The importance of farmland protection did not change; the question became how to accomplish the goal without compromising local resources.

Predicting Population Growth


Peoria Tri-County Region Population Change by 2030

This LEAM-generated population growth prediction is one of many tools used to anticipate future variables affecting plans. Blue indicates an increase, red a decrease.

Scenario Planning and Community Input Lead to Good Policy No single panacea can equitably mitigate and adapt to climate change and the host of environmental issues confronting our communities. We can, however, engage in exible, evolutionary planning that balances ecological, economic, and social needs in order to address these wicked planning problems. Even though we cannot literally travel into the future, new simulation technology can help us visualize the outcome of different plans, policies, and strategies before weve invested precious public resources to implement them. Planning support systems can help democratize the planning process by enabling entire communities to evaluate and contribute to these plans and participate in the decision-making process that results in wise policy and investment.
About the Researchers Dr. Brian Deal is an assistant professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Illinois. Robert Boyer is a graduate student in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning working under Dr. Deal.

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Editors:

Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Will Climate Change Affect Food Production?

verybody eats, but few people consider all the processes and practices that bring food to their table. These processes and practices make up the food system, which is inextricably linked to environmental change. Environmental Change Will Stress the Food System and Impact Food Production Several types of environmental change affect food systems, including climate change, urbanization, reforestation, energy availability, and environmental issues. Urbanization and agriculture are generally pitted against each other in the form of competition for land. Some types of agriculture cause nuisance and even health problems for surrounding residents. Issues related to climate change and its effect on food systems are just now being broadly considered and addressed. These include increased or decreased precipitation, changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, average temperature increases, and more erratic, powerful weather-related events. Decreased Precipitation in Some Regions Will Affect Irrigated and Rain-Fed Farms Areas with dry growing seasons, like the American West, frequently use irrigation from groundwater or surface water sources. Many of these sources rely on snow melt to ll reservoirs during the summer; the water is stored in ice until it melts. As winters and summers warm up, this mountain ice and snow melts earlier and faster, potentially leading to spring oods and low summer supplies. Limited water may mean that fewer western acres will be planted. Also, salts may also accumulate faster in elds receiving less water, adversely affecting crop growth. Farmers fortunate enough to rely on rainfall for crops may see

Key Term

Food System
A food system is the entire set of processes, and their local as well as global impacts, surrounding food production, harvest, processing, packaging, storing, shipping, selling, preparation, consumption, and recycling byproducts. Our current food system is highly centralized, meaning a few large producers and processors serve a vast number of consumers. Food is generally shipped over long distances and grown with the aid of fossil fuels. As climate change and increased demand raise the price of fossil fuels, a more distributed, localized, and diversied food system may arise, one that sidesteps high transportation, storage, and processing costs.

it critically diminished. They would have the option of switching to irrigation but may run into the problems just described. Switching to drought-tolerant crops, or even drought-tolerant types within a crop type, may solve the problem, at least temporarily. Increased Precipitation Could Cause Flooding and Disrupt Planting Increased precipitation could be a boon or a burden. In irrigated areas, increased precipitation may allow for conversion to rain-fed agriculture. In areas already wet, increased precipitation would make it more difcult to get into the eld with annual crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. Planting would frequently be delayed, with shorter intervals of dry soil in spring.

Food Security

in a Changing Environment

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


More precipitation would also make it difcult to get grain crops to dry down, while traction for harvesters would worsen. For fruits and vegetables, it would also be more difcult to get into elds for harvest, and the crops would likely have more disease problems and a shorter shelf life. If these problems make growing current crops too difcult, farmers may try growing others, though new equipment required for such a switch may be prohibitively expensive. Increased Precipitation Would Leach More Nutrients from Soil and Promote Plant Diseases and Insect Pests More precipitation could also ush nutrients and chemicals through the soil more rapidly, making it harder to keep fertilizer in the root zone available to plants. It may also increase soil erosion. More precipitation could also increase the variety and frequency of fungal and bacterial diseases, in addition to ooding root zones for extended periods. Precipitation Arriving Earlier or Later in Season May Disrupt Cropping Climate change may cause precipitation to arrive earlier or later each season. This could keep farmers out of the elds when they need to plant or could jeopardize the survival of seedlings. Some crops have very sensitive periods, particularly during pollination, when drought or excessive wetness can dramatically change the amount of seed or fruit produced. Besides arriving earlier and later in the season, weather events will in general become more severe and erratic. This will negatively impact farmers ability to plan when crops should be planted, harvested, and treated with chemicals. Though farmers have always dealt with unpredictable weather, those problems will worsen as climate change progresses. Increased Temperature May Affect How We Store and Process Food Warmer weather means that more energy must be used where harvested crops are frozen or refrigerated, either for transport or for storage. At the same time, efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions will force a shift from fossil fuels to other fuel types and increase the cost of energy. Canning and drying as preservation methods may become more important than freezing, where continual energy is required to maintain food in its frozen condition.

Average Miles Traveled by Produce


Conventionally sourced Broccoli Apples Sweet corn Lettuce Potatoes Tomatoes Peppers Onions 1,846 1,726 1,426 1,823 1,155 1,569 1,589 1,759 Locally sourced 20 61 20 43 75 60 44 35

Food in the U.S. is regularly shipped thousands of miles. This distance represents economic and environmental costs. A local food model could signicantly diminish those costs. Statistics provided are for Iowa.
Source: Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture, www.leopold.iastate.edu

Food processing requires energy, and as energy costs increase, using methods that require less energy will become more desirable, including the use of supercritical uids for drying and low-temperature pasteurization. Diversied Local Food Model Could Provide Food Security, Lower Transportation Costs, Protect Flavor Higher energy costs may increase demand for fresh foods, which avoid the energy costs of storage and preservation. This demand could increase the number of local farms, which can quickly supply fresh food with lower transportation and preservation costs. This local food as harvested also protects taste and nutrition. New techniques for extending the growing season that require relatively low energy inputs could make a more localized model of food production viable throughout the year. Enhancing the balance between local and distant food sources can help buffer uncertainties of production. For example, droughts in typical supply areas may eliminate distant sources of vegetables and fruit, while local growing conditions may support robust crop production.
About the Researcher Dr. Wes Jarrell is interim director of the Environmental Change Institute and professor of sustainable agriculture and natural resources at the University of Illinois.
Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

How Will Cap-and-Trade Affect Firms and Farms?


s Congress contemplates a cap-and-trade system to limit greenhouse emissions, its important to understand how such a system will affect the Midwest. Key Term

Emissions Allowance
Under a cap-and-trade system, rms will be given (or they will purchase at auction) permits, called emission allowances, to emit CO2. The advantage of a capand-trade system is that aggregate emission targets are met in the most economically efcient, or least-cost, manner. This happens because some rms are able to reduce emissions at a lower cost than other rms. The low-cost rms can reduce their emissions to a level where they have extra allowances to sell to high-cost rms; the high-cost rms nd it cheaper to buy extra allowances than to reduce emissions to their allowed level.

Cap-and-Trade Will Create a New Tradable Commodity to Be Tracked A cap-and-trade system will inject a new commodity into the economyemission allowances. Such allowances will determine the quantity of pollutant a rm is permitted to emit; under a cap-and-trade system, these will be an important input for many rms and an output for others. The system is created because rms are required to hold allowances for the emissions they produce. The nature of supply and demand will have important consequences for price behavior of the emission allowances, and therefore important implications for the risk management efforts of rms all over the Midwest. Unpredictable Emissions Allowance Price Makes Long-Term Planning Difcult The price of emission allowances, which will depend primarily on the total allowances the government permits, will be highly uncertain, and their price behavior will likely evolve over time. Uncertainty about prices will cause volatility, which makes risk management difcult. If rms could only know for sure what they would pay for allowances in the future, they could plan and adjust. Price volatility of the emission allowances largely will be impacted by how the cap-and-trade policy is designed. For example, whether rms can bank allowances for future use or borrow from future allowances will matter a lot. Banking and borrowing of emission allowances allows the supply to be smoothed from periods of low demand to periods of high demand, which makes price movements more stable.

Lawmakers Can Also Affect Price of Allowances There will also be uncertainty, especially at rst, about policy makers commitment to enforcing emission caps. Many cap-and-trade designs include a safely valve that in some way modies the stated cap, which can either increase or decrease the volatility of prices. Consider, for example, a policy that issues additional emission allowances in the event that prices become too high. In this case there is uncertainty about the intercept of the supply of allowances, which introduces additional volatility into the market. In addition to limiting the range in which allocation price can uctuate, price caps on emission allowances prevent the aggregate emission target from being met in the least-cost manner.

Cap-and-Trade

and Risk Management

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


Trading Mechanisms for Allowances May Operate Like Market for Commodities Like Corn and Soybean As a large spot market for emission allowances develops, rms will seek out parties with whom they can contract in advance to lock in the price at which they can buy or sell emission allowances. A forward contract is an agreement to pay a certain price for a commodity at a certain future date. Whether these forward contracts would mature into a viable exchange-traded contract like corn or soybean futures and other commodities is uncertain. However, exchangetraded contracts already exist for the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions allowances resulting from the acid rain program of the 1990 Clean Air Act, as well as for European Union allowances, although they do not attract the kind of volume seen in the more traditional commodity contracts. Cap-and-Trade May Increase Energy Costs for Farmers and Provide New Source of Income Most cap-and-trade proposals (including the one that has passed the U.S. House of Representatives) exempt agricultural producers from emissions regulations, but as consumers of energy farmers will be indirectly affected if the prices and/or volatility of energy-intensive products like diesel fuel and fertilizer change. But beyond this indirect impact, the climate bill passed by the House includes a program to provide incentives . . . for activities undertaken in the agriculture sector that reduce greenhouse gas emissions or sequester carbon. It is still unclear how such a program would be designed, and the design will be crucial to the Agricultural Incentives Program of the cap-and-trade legislation meeting its objectives. Emissions are a ow variable, regulated in units measured as tons per unit of time. Emission allowances for carbon sinks, sometimes called carbon offsets, are a stock variable measured in tons currently sequestered in the soil. It is difcult to design a program that rewards farmers or other entities for carbon sequestered in the past while exempting them from current emissions. Imagine a farmer who has land planted to a perennial cover crop that sequesters carbon. Under such a program the farmer may earn emission allowances that could be sold. However, if the farmers carbon emissions are not regulated, the emission allocation must be accompanied by

Allowance Price Is Unpredictable


P Allowance Price High Price Mean Price Low Price Demand Low Supply Mean Supply High Supply

Q emission allowances Politics, carbon sinks, and variable enforcement will inuence the supply of emission allowances. Prices will be highest with low supply (few allowances) and high demand (low emissions cap).

Number of Allowances

some kind of long-term agreement by the farmer to not reMean lease the sequestered carbon. Otherwise Highfarmer would Low Supply Supply the Supply P be free to plow the soil and release the carbon for which he High Price rewarded an emissions allocation. Even a or she was long-term contract has problems, because a farmer will be Mean Price willing to utilize a cover crop for only a certain number of years. If the farmer plows the soil at the end of the contract Low Price period, the sequestered carbon may be lost if the farmer is not accountable for his or her emissions. Demand To address this issue, the program could be designed so that farmers, by accepting emission allocations that they can sell today, elect this land use on this tract to be monitored and accountable for carbon emitted in the fuQ emission ture. This type of program would have high monitoring allowances costs, however, and it is difcult to envision a design that is both simple (cheap) to monitor and accurately accounts for carbon ows and not just carbon stocks at one period in time.
About the Researcher Dr. Mindy Mallory is an assistant professor in the Department Mean of Agricultural P Consumer Economics at the Supply and Low Supply Supply High University of Illinois. High Price
Mean Price Low Price
Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Demand Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Are Wild Bee Pollinator Populations Declining?


Key Term

ational concern over honey bee colony collapse has generated interest in the status of the other 3,522 U.S. bee species, most of them wild pollinators. Because bees are the primary pollinators of many owering plants and important crops, a national decline in overall wild bee populations would seriously affect the economy as well as natural plant communities. European countries have sampled bee populations for decades and have documented regional declines. Commercial and wild U.S. bee populations have not been systematically monitored, but there is evidence that the ranges and numbers of some species are shrinking. Hundreds of Unique Illinois Bee Species Provide Different Pollination Services Bumble bees are important wild pollinators, largely due to their robust size, long tongues, ight range, versatility, pollination efcacy, and the number of owers they use for pollen and nectar. They also engage in buzz pollination (the buzz they make while on a ower vibrates the pollen receptacle at the frequency to expel the pollen), an important mechanism that honey bees do not exhibit. Bumble bees live in colonies initiated each spring by solitary queens that overwinter from the previous autumn. The colonies get bigger as the season progresses. University of Illinois scientists are surveying bumble bees across the U.S. and comparing them with historical records from tens of thousands of museum specimens to track any signicant changes in species richness and distribution over the last 20 years. The Illinois Natural History Survey insect collection has about 360,000 Hymenoptera specimens (ants, bees, and wasps) dating from the 1800s to the present. Sixteen of 49 U.S. bumblebee species were historically recorded in Illinois before 1949. A comparison of museum specimens with recent eld collections shows that the richness of bumble bee species

Citizen Scientist
Citizen scientists are members of the public who volunteer time and effort to gather data needed by scientists. At BeeSpotter, citizen scientists and amateur bee hunters partner online with scientists to gather images of bees around Illinois. Each spotting helps illuminate which bees live where. If you would like to help researchers understand and protect bee populations, snap some photos and visit beespotter.mste.uiuc. edu to contribute.
University of Illinois

Native Pollinators

in the state declined substantially in the past century, especially between 1940 and 1960. Four historically recorded species were not found during extensive collecting in 2006 and 2007, while four other bumble bees were found in fewer areas of the state. Most bees are solitary and do not associate with their offspring or siblings. They emerge each year and mate, and nest in soil tunnels or in tunnels or cavities found or dug in wood, plant stems, or other material. The females provision cells with pollen and nectar for their young. Some species are active during most of the growing season, while others are active only for a few weeks. They typically die before their offspring emerge. Carlinville, Illinois, is home to one of the oldest and most comprehensive studies of bees ever conducted. Between 1884 and 1916, Charles Robertson collected 296 species on over 400 plants. A re-collection in the area in the early 1970s concentrated on 24 selected plants. University researchers found 82 percent of the bee species originally present on those plants.

Cope with Environmental Change

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


To survive, bees primarily require suitable nesting sites close to a continuous source of pollen and nectar when adults are active. Given their small size, bees can maintain themselves in much smaller areas than larger species like mammals. The bees at Carlinville are probably still present because some suitable habitat remains, although their overall numbers are likely greatly reduced. Likewise, the resources needed by a large bee or bumble bee colony to successfully reproduce far exceed those of a small solitary spring bee. The situation is further complicated by the fact that some bees, like honey bees, are generalists and use many plants, while others are adapted to obtain pollen and nectar from only a few specic plants. Habitat Fragmentation, Pesticide Use, and Conventional Landscaping Stress Bee Populations Bees are vulnerable to various modern practices as well as to introduced diseases. Land use and landscaping changes that occurred after World War II greatly impacted many species. The switch to row crops, removal of fencerows, conversion of mixed hay pastures to grasses or green alfalfa, and the advent of roadside herbicide spraying and mowing removed nesting habitat and eliminated useful owering plants in rural areas. In and around urban areas, new subdivisions are begun by scraping away, piling, and often removing topsoil, together with its nesting bees. The new landscaping often lacks plants that provide pollen and nectar throughout the growing season. Extensive pesticide use in soil and on plants also kills countless bees. Bee habitat is becoming increasingly limited and fragmented, forcing bees to live in ever-smaller areas. This isolation, in turn, makes it more difcult for bees to maintain genetic diversity and to recolonize habitats. Climate Change Could Force Bee Populations to Shift; Habitat Fragmentation Could Inhibit the Migration If climate change causes shifts in temperature, rainfall, and ultimately the plants that can survive in an area, bee species that cannot adapt must emigrate to survive. However, bees have a relatively short ight range. Many species would probably be unable to bridge the distances between locations with suitable habitat in much of Illinois and would suffer dramatic declines. Habitat fragmentation would also make it difcult for species already adapted to new conditions to colonize the area. For example, species that currently range from Louisiana to Canada will likely adapt, while species found only in the Southwest may not be able to migrate to Illinois.
Planting a Variety of Native Plants Provides Pollinators Food Throughout Season Number of pollinator species that
Longtongued bees 16 21 17
visit each plant ShortButtertongued flies and bees moths

Plant Virginia Bluebell Spring Beauty foxglove beardstongue Swamp Milkweed Browneyed Susan Sawtooth sunflower Aster pilosus

Season early spring early spring late Spring summer summer

2 37 5

6 9 3

12 23

6 25

15 7

summer fall fall 29 37 9 53 13 30

Landscaping with Native Plants and Habitat Corridors Scientificplantname Would Help Feed Bees and Aid Migrations Using native plants and carefully selected ornamentals

short in rural areas, along roadsides, long neighborhoods, parks, and in and public landscaping would tongued tongued Other of help mitigate the impacts Plant Season bees islands and corridors Hymenoptera habitat fragmentation. Creating habitat bees 16 pollinators as well 0 2 would provide food for bees and other as Mertensia early near suitable nesting sites would many birds. Planting on or virginica be even more helpful.spring The table above lists a few of the many 21 37 0 plants that together could provide a continuous food resource Claytonia early throughout the growing season. Comprehensive lists of suitviginica spring able plants and their availability could be developed for differ21 17 0 ent parts of Illinois. Highways, rural roads, railroads, streams, Polemonium and related land could form corridors for the migration and reptans spring dispersal of native bees, butteries, birds, and other animals. 22 19 1 Cercis About the Researchers canadensis spring Dr. John Marlin is an associate 16 director of 43 Illinois Susthe 10 tainable Technology Center. Dr. Sydney Cameron is an associate Salixinterior spring professor in the Department of Entomology and the Program in Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Biology at the University of Illinois.
Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Ethanol or Gas: Which is Best for the Climate?

Ethanol or Gas
in a Warming World?

f we grow corn grain to produce ethanol to power cars, do we end up using more energy than we create? Is replacing gasoline with corn ethanol better for the climate? Whats the best way to calculate how ethanol production and use affect climate? Right now many folks are asking these questions and coming up with differing answers. This in part results from the differing assumptions made when generating estimates. The balance sheet for corn ethanol is inuenced signicantly by the assumptions used. Key variables are grain yields, the amount of nitrogen fertilizer used to grow grain, the amount of nitrous oxide released from agricultural elds, and, last but not least, the amount of carbon sequestered by soils in the form of organic matter. Researchers lead by Steffen Mueller of the Energy Resources Center at the University of Illinois at Chicago tried to get the numbers right in evaluating the inuence of changing land use and production practices on the carbon balance surrounding an ethanol plant where plans were to double capacity. They evaluated trends by carefully examining changes to each acre of land in the vicinity of a selected ethanol plant, the Illinois River Energy Center (IRE) in Rochelle, about 80 miles west of Chicago. Remote sensing and survey methods were used to create a snapshot of land use trends in 200607; the researchers found that even though demand for corn was high, land near the plant was not diverted from other uses. This alleviated concern about environmentally sensitive land being removed from conservation uses. In 2007, about 100,000 acres were needed to supply the corn to produce 58 million gallons of ethanol. Farm surveys were used to determine both yield and N fertilizer application rates because U.S. averages do not accurately represent the above-average growing conditions in Illinois.

Key Term

Global Warming Potential


Global warming potential (GWP) measures the total greenhouse gas contribution of a person or practice. Since practices cause the release of many different greenhouse gases, and each one has a different potential to affect the climate, scientists like to convert them all to a single unit, known as CO2e. CO2e expresses how much a given amount CO2 might affect climate over 100 years. One ton of CO2 equals 1 ton of CO2e, whereas 1 ton of N2O, which is 300 times as potent as CO2, equals 300 tons of CO2e. GWP of six major greenhouse gases over 100 years: 1 ton CO2 = 1 ton CO2e 1 ton methane = 25 tons CO2e 1 ton nitrous oxide = 300 tons CO2e 1 ton HFC 134a = 1,430 tons CO2e 1 ton HFC 23 = 14,800 tons CO2e

Average grain yield was over 180 bushels per acre. If this increases to near 280 bushels, as predicted for the region by 2030, we could reduce the area needed to supply the ethanol plant by 30%. The study found that corn growers supplying the plant use an average of about 368 g/bu of nitrogen. Nitrogen fertilizer use contributes to the global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol, rst at the fertilizer production plant, where energy-intensive manufacturing processes emit greenhouse gases, and then in the

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


eld, where a certain amount of nitrogen is lost to the atmosphere as nitrous oxide (N2O). N2O is a gaslike carbon dioxide that insulates the earth, causing temperatures to rise. There are several ways to estimate the amount of N2O released, and approaches differ notably in the amounts predicted. The method selected for doing the estimate makes a big difference, because the warming caused by one molecule of N2O is about 300 times that of CO2. Emissions are offset to some extent by the amount of CO2 that is captured by plants and then sequestered as soil carbon in organic matter. The net GWP of the ethanol production plant was estimated based on existing crop rotations and tillage practices. The study did not consider global adjustments in land use patterns from U.S. biofuels production. Under certain conditions, the amount of warming caused by the release of heat trapping gasses or consumption of energy to produce nitrogen fertilizers was offset or canceled out by the amount of warming reduced by soil carbon sequestration. Ethanol or Gas? According to Dr. Muellers study, corn ethanol from northern Illinois has 40% less impact on the climate than gasoline. Farm practices like cover cropping and no-till farming could further reduce that impact.
About the Researcher Dr. Steffen Mueller is principal research economist at the Energy Resources Center at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

Carbon Accounting
How to calculate a products GWP or CO2e , footprint
you want know impact 1 If product willtohave on whatclimate, a the you have to track its CO2e emissions through every stage of its life cycle.

impact 2 Corn ethanolsthe farm.on global warming begins on CO is released


2e

whenever equipment like a tractor is burning gas and whenever nitrogen fertilizer applied to the soil returns to the air as nitrous oxide.
CO2e

CO2e

CO2e

?
CO2e

In the case of corn ethanol, you have to follow the product from the farm where the corn seed is planted to the vehicle where the ethanol is nally burned, releasing energy and emissions.

The farm lowers its global warming potential when it takes carbon from the atmosphere and traps it in the soil. Practices like no-till farming and planting cover crops are good ways to do just that. When you subtract the CO2e trapped from the CO2e released, the farms in northern Illinois that used cover cropping and no-till roughly broke even.

CO2e

is trans3 After leaving the farm, cornprocessed ported to processing facilities,

Global Warming Impact of IRE Produced Corn Ethanol

CO2e

gCO2/MJ

into ethanol, transported to gas stations, and combusted in vehicles. CO2e released during each step is added to the overall GWP of corn ethanol.
CO2e

100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 C-Sequestration IRE Biorefinery Other Ag and Distribution N Fertilizer IRE & CO2Sequestration IRE Net GWI

+ +

CO2e

mate impact, meaning that it does contribute to climate change. But the study found that its contribution was lower than that of gasoline.

GWP

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Editors:

Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Average Ethanol Plant

Gasoline

is tallied, 4 When all Illinois has corn ethanol from northern a net-positive cli-

CO2e

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Can Conventional Farming Sequester Carbon?

eginning in the 1950s, the agricultural landscape of Illinois shifted from the traditional family farm, with legume-based rotations and integrated animal production, toward intensive cash-grain cropping of corn and soybeans. This shift was made possible by a postwar expansion in the availability of commercial nitrogen fertilizers that boosted corn yields with improved hybrids. The past ve decades have seen a remarkable increase in corn yield and also in the consumption of fertilizer nitrogen, often overapplied as a means to ensure high yields. Unfortunately, the input-intensive approach used in achieving this yield increase has been decidedly negative in its consequences for soil carbon, a key component of fertility and an important means of storing carbon that would otherwise be contributing to climate change as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Nitrogen Fertilization Increases Organic Carbon Inputs But Not Storage Long-term experiments at the Morrow Plots at the University of Illinois show that applying nitrogen fertilizer reduces stored soil carbon even as it increases the amount of residue carbon left in elds. Historical yield records for the Morrow Plots reveal impressive gains in corn production since the shift to commercial fertilization in 1955. Five decades later, the cumulative result has been a massive input of residue carbon (91 to 124 tons per acre), yet the only signicant changes in soil organic carbon were net losses, and these tended to be more extensive for the subsurface soil than for the plow layer. In effect, nothing remained from the residue carbon incorporated in the past 51 years, and a decline had usually occurred in native soil organic carbon. This decline contributed directly to increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide. To ascertain

Key Term

Carbon Sink
A carbon sink is a natural or humanmade reservoir that accumulates and stores some carbon-containing chemical compound for an indenite period. People usually refer to carbon sinks as places to store atmospheric (CO2) that would otherwise contribute to global warming. The largest natural carbon sinks are the oceans and soil. The largest humanmade carbon sinks are landlls and, potentially, underground reservoirs where excess CO2 could be piped. Agricultural soil has signicant potential to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Farming practices such as nitrogen fertilizer application and tillage affect the amount soil can store. When stored in soil, carbon has a number of functions. It can improve soil stability, prevents nutrient leaching, and can stabilize pH. Generally, farmers who store more carbon in their soil are both combatting climate change and improving the productivity of their soil.

Soil Carbon

whether the Morrow Plots are unique in documenting a detrimental effect of synthetic nitrogen fertilization on soil storage of organic carbon, extensive effort was made to compile baseline changes from 48 published eld trials with synthetic nitrogen. The resulting database, representing a wide range of soil and climatic conditions, cropping systems, and management practices, conrms the effectiveness of nitrogen/phosphorus/potassium fertilization for increasing biomass production but not for sequestering soil carbon. On the contrary, the usual nding has been

and Nitrogen Fertilizer

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


a decrease over time in organic carbon levels. If nitrogen fertilization increases the input of carbon into the soil without increasing carbon storage, there must be more extensive microbial decomposition of residue carbon to CO2. Soil Carbon Losses Increased by Removing Above-Ground Residues or Overapplying Nitrogen The adverse impact of nitrogen fertilization in promoting the loss of soil organic matter will be exacerbated by removing above-ground residues, which act as a buffer to reduce microbial attack on native soil carbon. Before the 1950s, this practice promoted soil degradation in the Corn Belt by depleting soil carbon and several major nutrients (notably nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur) while enhancing erosion and compaction. With heavy usage of synthetic nitrogen, the impact would be far worse today, so caution is warranted with the current trend toward using crop residues for bioenergy production. The long-term consequences of removing above-

Illinois Soil Nitrogen Test


The Illinois Soil Nitrogen Test (illinoissoilntest.nres. uiuc.edu/about.html) lets farmers estimate how much nitrogen their soil can provide to crops, giving them a better idea of how much fertilizer they should apply. The tool helps farmers maximize the return on their fertilizer investment, while minimizing the adverse environmental effects of overfertilization.

N Fertilizer Commonly Overapplied

Conventional Cropping Practices Cause Decline in Soil Organic Carbon


120 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 120 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 120 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 -15
Residue C input Soil C storage (0-18 in.)

C-C

C-O(S)

C-O-H

ground residues are readily apparent from the developing world, where soils have been depleted by many centuries of residue removal to provide animal feed and fuel for the kitchen. In the Midwest, residues would be used as a ex fuel subsidized at public expense. To minimize further loss of soil organic carbon, reducing fertilization beyond the crops nitrogen requirement should be emphasized. One option would be to account for the soils indigenous nitrogen-supplying power using the Illinois Soil Nitrogen Test (ISNT), in which case application rates can be adjusted specic to each site. Nitrogen inputs can be further reduced if fertilization is postponed to better coincide with crop nitrogen need, ideally by a sidedress application in late spring. This strategy will help producers cut their cost of production while moderating the detrimental effects of overfertilization on air, water, and soil resources.
About the Researchers Dr. Richard Mulvaney is a professor in the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science at the University of Illinois. Dr. Saeed Khan is a research specialist and Dr. Tim Ellsworth is an associate professor in the same department.
Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Tons of Carbon per Acre

Unfertilized

NPK

HNPK

Fig. 1. Cumulative input and storage of carbon between 1955 and 2005 with and without NPK or HNPK fertilization of Morrow Plots cropped to continuous corn [C-C], a cornoats (before 1967) or corn-soybean (since 1967) rotation [C-O(S)], or a corn-oats-alfalfa hay rotation [C-O-H].

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

ost people give little thought to the source of the electricity that comes out of the outlet. And why should they? The American electric power grid has been designed as the ultimate in plug-and-play conveniencejust ip a switch and the light comes on. Aside from the monthly bill and the occasional blackout, electricity is easy to take for granted. Yet lately it is hard to open a newspaper without seeing references to the changes brewing in the electric industrycap-andtrade, renewable electric energy sources, global climate change, plans to phase out incandescent light bulbs, cyber security, and the so-called smart grid. Top Engineering Achievement of the 20th Century The humble electric outlet is a gateway to one of the most complex and largest entities ever created. Except for a few islands and other isolated systems, the entire electric grid in North America is really just one big circuit. It has billions of individual electric loads, tens of millions of miles of wire, and tens of thousands of electric generators. Electric lines operating at up to 765,000 volts (more than 6,000 times the typical household value of 120 volts) allow electricity to be transferred hundreds of miles with very low losses. The intricacy of this grid was recognized in 2000 by the U.S. National Academy Engineering as the top engineering achievement of the 20th century, beating out the automobile, the airplane, and electronics, among other competitors. Reliability, Economies of Scale, Vulnerability, and Price Volatility An interconnected electric system has two primary benets: reliability and economics. An interconnected grid with thou-

What is the Future of Electricity in the U.S.?


Key Term

Smart Grid
With our current electrical grid, you can be either a consumer or producer. Producers are centralized power plants, and consumers are the millions of buildings they serve. With a smart grid, digital technology would allow everyone to be a producer and feed surplus electricity into the grid. People with rooftop solar panels or wind turbines could sell excess power back to their municipalities. The grid would also increase reliability and transparency while reducing the costs of energy distribution.

Will Coal

sands of generators means that when even the largest generator fails, the lights stay on. From an economic perspective it also means that utilities can trade electricity, taking advantage of lower cost generation that may take place hundreds of miles away. Large electricity markets, such as the Midwest Independent Transmission Operator covering 13 states and the province of Manitoba, allow electricity to be traded in real time, similarly to what occurs on Wall Street with stocks. But this high degree of connectivity has a detrimental side effect: if something goes wrong, the results can quickly be felt over a large area. The blackout on August 14, 2003, which affected more than 50 million people in eight states and the province of Ontario, provided ample evidence that widescale blackouts are not a thing of the past. Electricity markets can also fail through high price volatility. For example, in June

Be the Fuel of the Future?

Issue 1:11 ref: http://hdl.handle.net/2142/16455

1998, the wholesale price of electricity in Illinois soared more than 100-fold, increasing from typical values per kilowatt-hour of perhaps 5 cents up to $7.50. A much longerlasting market problem occurred in California in 2001, resulting in the bankruptcy of the states largest utility, Pacic Gas and Electric. Electricity Created on Demand and Delivered Milliseconds After Generation These problems arise because of some of electricitys unique properties. For example, batteries provide a convenient way to store the electricity needed to run cell phones and ashlights, but there is no inexpensive means for storing large amounts. So pretty much second by second, the electricity created by generators must equal that used by all the consumers on the grid (called the load). The grid thus represents the ultimate in just-in-time manufacturing. Because electricity moves at nearly the speed of light, its always delivered to the outlet within milliseconds of having been created in a generator. This exibility is important because there is a continual need to keep total generation in balance with total load. Fortunately, the total load on the electric grid is relatively stable, since devices being turned on are balanced somewhat by others being turned off. But over the course of days, weeks, and seasons there can be large variations in total electricity consumptionthe load on a hot summer afternoon might be several times what is at 3 a.m. on a Sunday morning in fall. Engineers Cannot Control the Path Electricity Takes from the Generator to the User Another peculiarity of electricity is that, with few exceptions, there are no mechanisms to directly control how electricity ows from generator to consumer. Engineers can monitor how it ows through the high-voltage electric grid (known as the transmission system), but there is no means to change the ow of electricity on an individual transmission line, short of totally disconnecting the line. The adage that electricity takes the path of least resistance is somewhat misleading, because electricity doesnt ow along a single route from the generator to the load. Rather, it spreads throughout the transmission system as dictated by what engineers call impedance. Also, when one line fails, say due to a lightning strike, it is automatically taken out of service in less than a blink of the eye, and just as fast the electricity automatically redistributes itself to the other lines.

The Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator Control Center controls the grid in much of the Midwest, including most of Illinois.

Courtesy of Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc., Carmel, Indiana www.midwestmarket.org

Power Lines Often Run at Capacity Because Permission to Build New Lines Takes Years Finally, the electric transmission system has only a limited capacity for transferring electricity. Just like an extension cord can overload when carrying too much electricity, transmission lines have limitations. Because its difcult to gain permission to build new lines, the transmission system is becoming increasingly loaded just due to growth. It often makes economic sense to operate that increasingly loaded grid as close to its limit as possible to take advantage of more inexpensive electricity generation. 40% of Electricity from Coal, 2% From Renewables On the supply side, about 40% of the total energy used in the U.S. comes by way of electricity, a percentage that has been gradually increasing. In 2008, we got almost half of our electricity from coal, about 21% from nuclear, 19% from natural gas, and 6% from hydroelectric. While some renewables are growing rapidly, their overall percentages are still relatively small, with wind supplying slightly more than 1%, wood and other biomass about 1% (a number that has decreased over the last decade), and solar less than 0.01%. But these percentages vary widely by state. Indiana gets more than 95% of its electricity from coal, while in Illinois, coal and nuclear dominate, supplying 95% of the total in roughly equal shares. California gets essentially none of its electricity from coal, while Oregon and Washington get 60% and 73%, respectively, from hydro.

Why the differences? Obviously, hydro is only practical where there is lots of water, plus large differences in elevation in which to construct reservoirs. States with large coal reserves or good railroads have tended to use coal since to date it has been a relatively inexpensive source. The same is true for natural gas and pipelines. Distribution of nuclear power depends on historical attitudes of utilities and their statesin Illinois, Commonwealth Edison invested heavily in nuclear during the 1970s and 1980s, whereas Indiana utility companies did not. Coal Accounts for a Third of All CO2 Emissions from All Energy Sources, Predominating in the Midwest and South The power industry produces about 40% of humanproduced emissions. But these vary substantially by fuel type. Nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro power create essentially no emissions. Overall, the burning of coal for electricity generates more than 85% of total electricity emissions, and hence more than a third of the total for all energy sources. Any attempt to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will need to involve coal generation. There are no quick, inexpensive, short-term xes to this issue, at least not for the Midwest. Some states, including Illinois, have a lot of capacity for natural gas generation. In fact, Illinois has more natural gas capacity than nuclear, and almost as much as coal. So a fast, but certainly not inexpensive, way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions would be to use more natural gas generation. But some states, including Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio, do not have enough capacity to supplant a large percentage of their coal usage. Natural gas generation also tends to be more expensive than coal, and substantially more expensive than nuclear. Of course, more natural gas generation could be built, but the cost de-

pends on highly volatile fuel prices. With prices currently below $4/Mbtu, natural gas generation can be quite competitive with coal. But just last year natural gas prices were three times as high and could rise again with increased demand. A second potential approach to reduce emissions would be to import more electricity from states with alternative generation sources. However, while the high-voltage transmission grid does allow for such transfers, the capacity to move power long distances is actually quite limited. The system was designed to meet the needs of local utilities, to move electricity from their generators to their customers. Illinois might be able to import 15% of its total electric usage, but such imports would need to come from neighboring states, which also depend on coal. New long-distance transmission lines could be built, but quite a few lines would be needed, and getting approval for any new line takes years. Wind Power Requires a Lot of Space; Solar Is Expensive and May Be Years Away Of course we can build new generation, and as a glance around the midwestern countryside indicates, wind is a rapidly growing, carbon-free, relatively economic source of electricity. But it would take a lot of windand lots of land and quite a few yearsto substantially replace our existing fossil fuel generation. A ballpark gure is that each 10 to 15 megawatts (MW) of wind capacity requires about 1 square mile of land. While most of this land can still be farmed, and payments to landowners can be signicant, a peak load of about 30,000 MW in Illinois alone means a lot of countryside dotted with wind turbines. As of June 2009, Illinois had 915 MW of wind capacity, Indiana 531, and Iowa 2,883. Also, wind turbines can generate only when the wind is blowing, and the highest loads often occur on days with very little wind. The renewable energy source with the most potential is solar power. But while costs have been decreasing, solar power remains quite expensive compared to other alternatives. It will probably not make a substantial contribution to our total electric consumption for at least a decade. With Help of Smart Grid, Conservation a Good Start Consumers can make a difference, too. One way to achieve lower carbon dioxide emissions would be to simply use less electricity. This goal could be achieved through multiple means, including simple ones, such as turning off unused lights and buying more efcient light bulbs and

Energy generated per state by various methods. Coal predominates in the Midwest.

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


appliances. Educating consumers about their true energy usage minute-by-minute could also prompt them to conserve. This could be done with a smart grid, with digital meters showing consumers their exact energy usage instantaneously. Some experts estimate that savings of 5% to 15% are possible. Whether such savings can actually be achieved by most people over the long run, as opposed to by the dedicated few who spend the time to monitor their electric usage, is yet to be seen. Some of these purported savings can be easily achieved with existing devices, such as programmable thermostats, that have been available for decades. And some strategies may actually be counterproductive. For example, turning off the basement dehumidier can result in short-term savings on the power bill, but the practice could be detrimental to the long-term health of a house and its occupants. Added to this is the possibility that the new smart meters could become a target of choice for hackers. The cyber vulnerability of the electric grid, from the meters to the overall control systems, is an area of growing concern. Increasing Costs Could Provoke Conservation The more challenging but ultimately quite effective strategy for decreasing consumption of electricity is to increase its cost. Basic economics tells us that the more something costs, the less we use. The ultimate premise behind capand-trade legislative initiatives is to reduce usage of carbon dioxideproducing fuels such as coal by making them more expensive. How much nancial pain needs to be inicted depends on how quickly the carbon dioxide emissions are to be reduced. Small Solar Generators May Be Installed at Homes, But Probably Not Wind Turbines

Wind Power Generated 30,000 Megawatts in 2009

30,000 megawatts can power 30 million homes


Graphic courtesy of AWEA (www.AWEA.org).

Finally, in an ironic twist, the electric power industry may be moving back to where it began in the 1880s, with small generators supplying a handful of customers. Distributed generation, often in the form of rooftop solar or a backyard wind turbine, is a small but growing source of electricity. While there is certainly gratication for some in About the Researcher Dr. Thomas J. Overbye is the Fox Family Professor in Elecreducing the monthly electric bill, the large upfront costs of this power generation can make for long payback periods, trical and Computer Engineering at the University of Illinois. even when installation is coupled with tax breaks that may cover more than 50% of the total cost.

Whether these individual generators will ever make economic sense for most homeowners depends on the degree of economy of scale present, keeping in mind that the total losses in moving electricity from distant generators to a customers house seldom exceed 20%. With wind there are substantial economics of scale, since larger turbines cost less to build per unit of energy, and the wind is substantially faster at 200 to 300 foot hub heights of MW-size commercial wind turbines (power output rises with the cube of the wind speed). With solar photovoltaics there is substantially less economy of scale, so rooftop installations may eventually become competitive. So whats in store for the electric grid? With large uctuations in fuel prices, pending carbon reduction legislation, uncertainties about new technology, and a ballooning federal decit, it is really hard to say. It is certainly an exciting time to be an engineer in the electric industry, and our university enrollments in this eld are at record levels. But as consumers in the Midwest we may be in for some rocky years; someday we may look back fondly on the low electric rates we enjoy today.

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Editors:

Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Should the Free Market Manage Public Lands?

limate change will impact public land that our government maintains for conservation and recreation. The severity of that impact will depend on how well the lands are managed. Right now they are managed from the top down by government employees. Some suggest that opening up management decisions to market forces would benet the lands and the public, a philosophy called free-market environmentalism (FME). What are the pros and cons of a free-market approach to public lands management in a changing climate? How might market forces change the character of our public parks? Government Manages Many Lands Throughout the Midwest In the Midwest, the National Park Service manages three national parks (Cuyahoga Valley, Isle Royale, and Voyageurs) and four national lakeshores (Apostle Islands, Indiana Dunes, Pictured Rocks, and Sleeping Bear Dunes). The Park Service also manages the Mississippi National River and Recreation Area, Ozark National Scenic Riverways, and Saint Croix National Scenic River, as well as 23 historic sites and 10 national trails in the region. The U.S. Forest Service also has a signicant presence in the region. It manages three national forests in Michigan, two each in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and one each in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. It also manages Illinoiss Midewin National Tallgrass Prairie. Finally, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service manages national wildlife refuges throughout the region7 in Illinois, 3 in Indiana, 8 in Iowa, 7 in Michigan, 19 in Minnesota, 9 in Missouri, 4 in Ohio, and 9 in Wisconsin. The federal government also holds some lands in trust for Indian reservations in Iowa and Michigan, and many lands in Minnesota and Wisconsin. These public lands serve a variety of values, including outdoor recreation,

Key Term

Market-Based Solution
Market-based solutions or instruments are also referred to as economic or price-based policy tools. Advocates argue that the free market, property rights, and tort law provide the best tools to preserve the health and sustainability of the environment. This is in contrast to the most common modern approach of proactive environmental legislation.

wildlife and game management, wilderness, scientic research, and public education. FME Can Avoid Shortcomings of Governments Top-Down, Command-and-Control Approach Free-market environmentalism maintains that government land management agencies are imperfect agents, taking actions that serve bureaucratic instead of public interests. For example, agencies will always want to increase their staff and budgets. As a result, they will prefer staff-intensive regulatory policies, known as command-and-control systems. They also prefer solutions that require spending money over policies that leave decisions in the hands of private actors. For example, the U.S. Forest Service hires its own timber cruisers to ascertain the market value of forest tracts instead of using public auctions to nd this value. Top-down government management allows inefcient policies to exist because the political system is inuenced by lobbyists in industry and some types

Public Land

and the Free Market

Issue 1:12 ref: http://hdl.handle.net/2142/16454

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


of nongovernment organizations. These political factors mean that mobilized actors reap economic benets without paying for the environmental costs of their activity. Polluters dont pay for the harm they inict on others, logging companies dont pay market prices for their timber leases, mining companies pay almost no royalties, and tourists enjoy subsidized roads, campgrounds, marinas, and other facilities in our national parks and forests. Advocates of FME maintain that the market would be immune to the inuence of lobbyists and that many environmental harms could be reduced simply by making people pay for the environmental services they use. FME also suggests that markets can help private actors nd lower-cost ways to mitigate the economic damages of climate change. FME May Be Ineffective at Managing Wildlife and Limit the Range of Activities on Public Lands While FME could overcome many limitations of government management, it comes with problems of its own. For example, protecting certain wildlife on public lands would be difcult with this approach, and it would likely limit certain recreation opportunities. FME would be good at protecting species with clear commercial and recreational value, like deer and sh. But it would have a harder time protecting species like songbirds and poison ivy, which have no clear economic use. Unfortunately, ecosystems must be managed holistically, and species with obvious economic value, like deer, may depend on valueless species farther down the food chain. As climate change will likely disrupt many of these natural systems, FME may be poorly suited to guide our policy responses. Just like market-based management would favor certain species, it would also favor more commercial forms of recreation, such as recreational vehicles, camping in developed campsites, concessioner businesses, and hunting and shing. RV campers dont require much land, and they spend much more than backpackers do. Under FME, catering to a diversity of recreational interests may not be economically feasible for public lands managers. In response, FME advocates might propose privatized protection of habitats and ecosystems, relying on voluntary contributions. Certainly many public land trusts, including the Nature Conservancy, the National Audubon Society, and Ducks Unlimited, protect valuable parcels of land in this way. These trusts are also attractive in that they rely

3040% 2030% 1020%

510% 35% 13%

01%

Percentage of Land per State Managed by U.S. National www.fs.fed.us Forest Service

on voluntarism. People who value nature contribute to these groups and pay for them, while people who do not value them dont pay. Unfortunately, the theory of public goods shows that voluntary provision undersupplies public goods, though various mechanisms have been proposed to solve this problem.From the standpoint of democratic theory one might also wonder who controls these trusts, and to what extent they are representative of the public interest. In general, FME has not yet thought seriously about how majority rule interacts with the free market, especially if the majority favors nonmarket policies. Given Its Pros and Cons, FME Should Be Applied Conscientiously The ideological side of free-market environmentalism wants to make markets the solution to all land management problems. This idea does not really follow from sound economic theory, and it ignores the politics behind all policy making. The shortcomings of an FME approach become most evident in the case of noneconomic wildlife and wilderness preservation. The more defensible FME claim is that if government chooses to achieve some environmental goal, it can achieve that goal at least cost by developing market solutions to the problem.
About the Researcher Dr. Robert Pahre is a professor of political science at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign.
Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Will Climate Change Affect American Security?

ar, civil unrest, and political instability have no single cause, but history has shown that climate change can be an important contributor to internal and external threats to a nations stability. Climate Change: A Threat Multiplier of Instability According to the retired admirals and generals of the Military Advisory Board, climate change is a threat multiplier of instability that will seriously exacerbate already marginal living standards in many Asian, African, and Middle Eastern nations, causing widespread political instability and the likelihood of failed states. The group found that fragile nations, when exposed to climateexacerbated migration, border tension, disease, and resource conicts, can breed extremism and terrorism. That instability could impact Americas domestic and international interests. Climate Change Will Stress Wealthy Nations and May Cause Fragile States to Fail Wealth will play a signicant role in how different countries cope with climate change. Wealthy, developed nations will have the political stability and infrastructure necessary to cope with the initial impacts of climate change. Some may even see slight increases in agricultural productivity as their breadbaskets become more temperate. As the century progresses, those developed nations may nd that the costs of mitigating climate change reach several percent of their gross domestic product. Catastrophic climate impacts, such as the melting of Greenlands ice sheets, could threaten even a developed nations capacity to respond.

Key Term

Threat Multiplier
A threat multiplier exacerbates existing trends, tensions, and instability. Climate change is a threat multiplier that will intensify nation-destabilizing trends such as freshwater shortages, agricultural failure, and migration due to disasters and environmental degradation.

Less-developed nations will have a harder time adjusting to climate impacts. Many lack the political and physical infrastructure to cope with climate change. Its impacts would exacerbate existing problems, including poor agricultural production and depleted freshwater, and introduce new obstacles to development. Nations on the brink of instability could be pushed to outright failure. Effects on Water, Agricultural Production, and Infrastructure May Contribute to Instability Over 1 billion people worldwide do not have access to safe drinking water. Regardless of climate change, this situation is likely to worsen as rising populations and economic growth strain existing resources. Climate change will exacerbate the problem by changing rainfall patterns and depleting glaciers that provide melt water. One of the regions most likely to experience the negative impacts of shifting rainfall patterns is the western United States, while re-

Climate Change

and International Con ict

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


duced glacier melt will affect over one sixth of the worlds population. It is unclear how water scarcity will affect international conict. Areas where rainfall is less consistent tend to experience more conicts, and water scarcity can lead to destabilizing competition and migration, although precedents of outright water wars are rare. By shifting precipitation patterns, climate change will likely decrease agricultural productivity in many developing nations worldwide. This will not only impact the 850 million people who already are undernourished. According to the German Advisory Council, a warming of 3.6 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit could lead to agricultural losses for all producers. Like freshwater scarcity, food scarcity can lead to destabilizing competition and migration. Global warming will increase the risk of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, oods, typhoons, and heat waves. These events will signicantly impact health and infrastructure and contribute to instability. As with agricultural impacts, natural disaster will disproportionately affect less-developed regions, some of which will experience events more frequently while being less equipped to cope with their impacts. The densely populated coasts of Bangladesh, India, and China will also pose special challenges to storm damage mitigation. Mass and Incremental Migration Could Ripple Instability Outward Climate-exacerbated instability and conict in one nation can quickly spill into neighboring regions. Migration would be a key driver of that domino effect as migrants compete with residents for scarce resources and regions ethnic balances are disrupted. The impact of these migrations will depend on their character. A mass exodus after a catastrophic weather event will have a very different impact than gradual, planned shifts from unfavorable areas. Whatever their character, migrations will be more likely between less-developed nations with inadequate resources to maintain their borders. Climate Stresses Could Lead to Cooperation A global problem is an opportunity for global collaboration. Events like the 2009 Climate Conference in Copenhagen, host to more than 40,000 representatives of government, private, and nonprot organizations, are critical opportunities to address climate and its inuence on national security.
About the Author Dr. Jrgen Scheffran is professor of climate change and security at Hamburg University in Germany.

Destabilizing Impacts of Climate Change Are Felt Differently Across Globe

Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Editors:

Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

What Will Happen to Fish and Aquatic Wildlife?

quatic communities are an important resource for the Midwest. These ecosystems provide drinking water, food, and recreation opportunities for millions of people, and they are essential for the health and functioning of the terrestrial environments that surround them. Todays aquatic communities are the result of a host of interactions between species and their environment, and the structure of these communities is dictated by a balance of processes such as predation, competition, and reproduction that have taken centuries to become established. Climate Change Will Alter the Character of the Midwests Aquatic Ecosystems

Key Term

Thermal Habitat
Thermal habitat is the range of water temperatures in which sh can survive and reproduce most successfully. Fish are generally classied as cold-, cool-, or warm-water sh. Cold-water sh prefer temperatures under 68 degrees Fahrenheit. Cool-water sh thrive between 68 and 76 degrees, and warm-water sh at 76 degrees and higher. As climate change increases the average temperatures in our lakes in rivers, cold-water sh will have to adjust along with the temperatures, either by living at greater depths or shifting northward.

Climate Change

Currently, climate change is threatening to upset the balance in aquatic communities, with potentially serious consequences. As Thermal Habitats of Common Fish air temperatures increase, so do water temperatures, and increases Cold-water: rainbow trout in water temperature may dramatically change aquatic ecosysCool-water: smallmouth bass, walleye tems. Scientists in the Midwest with access to long-term data have Warm-water: largemouth bass, striped bass, Roanoke documented that lakes in this region have begun freezing later bass, white bass, black crappie, yellow perch, various in the year and starting to melt earlier in the year compared with catsh species and bullheads 150 years ago, demonstrating the impact of climate change on the areas water bodies. It is almost certain that climate will continue to warm in the coming decades; the exact impacts on aquatic eco- the water around them. Fish become less active in the winter, and in summer their biological processes run systems are not known, but a number of shifts are likely. faster, requiring more food and oxygen. Fish have optimal temperatures, which are one factor that denes Warmer Water May Have Negative Effect on the Fish the geographical ranges for aquatic organisms; at temand Aquatic Wildlife in the Midwest peratures higher or lower than optimal, performance Most organisms on the planet have an optimal temperature can be compromised, thereby limiting organisms disat which their bodies function best. Fish and other aquatic or- tributions. Inversely related to temperature is the amount of ganisms are no exception, and, because they are cold-blooded, their internal temperature is dictated by the temperature of oxygen dissolved in water; warmer water contains less

Puts Aquatic Life in Hot Water

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17.92 19.95 20.97 20.42 oxygen than cooler water, 22.58 resulting in increased oxygen de19.3 mand for cold-blooded organisms and less oxygen provided 19.53 in the environment. Warming of the environment can thus 19.95 have a host of negative consequences for aquatic organisms 19.84 that can result in dramatic changes to ecosystems. 19.2 20.18 18.58 Southern Limits of Some Midwestern Fish May Shift Northward 18.58 18.81 17.62 Habitat refers to the set of living and nonliving fac19.42 tors that are required by organisms to survive. Temperature, 17.88 which is one component of habitat, is a resource that organ18.74 isms seek, similar to food19.62 shelter. As climate-induced and 18.89 increases in temperature occur and oxygen availability de18.38 creases, the habitat characteristics for aquatic organisms can 18.17 become suboptimal, potentially threatening their survival. 20.67 The rst inclination of aquatic organisms when con20.2 fronted with habitat challenges is simply to shift locations 21.34 and seek conditions closer to those they prefer. However, 20.35 depending on the species, 18.3ability to move, its current its distribution, and the conditions in its current water body, 18.91 17.29 such optimal habitat might not exist, and organisms might 20.46 be forced to either leave altogether or risk becoming vulnerable to predation. For 20.23in the Midwest, one of the sh 18.33 main predictions from increased global temperatures is a 22.56 reduction in thermal habitat, coupled with a northward shift 20.66 in ranges as individuals and species migrate to cooler water 19.81 closer to their optimums. 19.76commercial sheries in the For ocean, such consequences21.06 be more severe and could could 22.11 result in the migration of a food source out of a local area, 19.91 potentially having negative consequences on communities that might depend on these 19.5 for protein. sh 20.41 18.73 Climate Changes Effect on20 Complex Aquatic Ecosystems Is Difcult to Predict 18.42 22.16 18.35 While the northward migration of species is likely, the 20 indirect and ecosystem-level consequences of shifts in22.42 not certain. An ecosystem duced by climate change are 22.21

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE INSTITUTE


Great Lakes Temps Are Trending Upward
25

August Temperatures, Lake Michigan

20

15c

1948

2008

10 August Temperatures, Lake Erie


30

30
25 5 25 20 20c 2008 0 1948 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 15 1 As temperatures in aquatic habitats shift, sh and other creatures will have to shift with them. 10

Series1 Linear (Ser

phytoplankton, and algae will also be affected by warmer temperatures, with potential changes in productivity. Thus, while it is possible to predict the impact of climate change on individual species, linking changes to ecosystem-level alterations remains a challenge.
5 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61

Comprehensive Monitoring Needed to Understand and Mitigate Climates Effect on Aquatic Resources

It is important that we continue comprehensive monitoring and observation programs to document not only the abundance of and distribution of aquatic organisms but also changes to temperature, oxygen, and other characteristics of aquatic ecosystems. Improved monitoring will help scientists identify any changes to aquatic communities, therecomprises an interacting web of species that are coupled by providing clearly dened paths for future conservation by processes such as predation, competition, and reproducactivities to protect them. tion that have all taken centuries to reach equilibrium. If a novel species is introduced to this balance, or if a particular About the Researcher species should become less abundant due to thermal limitaDr. Cory Suski is an assistant professor in the Department of tions, the consequences for the ecosystem are difcult to Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences at the University predict. Increased temperatures wont just impact mobile of Illinois. organisms such as sh; primary producers such as plants,

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Editors:

Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

Can We Keep Soils Covered as Climate Changes?

rop diversication and using cover crops and perennials can do great things for soil, water, and wildlife. So why dont farmers do more of both? The half-billion acres in Illinois and Iowa used to produce corn and soybean could be diversied without losing an annual cash crop simply by adding winter cover crops. Winter cover crops provide important ecosystem services by capturing nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus that would be leached if soils were left bare. Growing cover crops can add organic matter and improve soil physical properties in ways that help prevent erosion and increase soils water-holding capacity. On top of all this, covers provide needed winter habitat for wildlife. Unfortunately, fewer than 20% of farmers in the Corn Belt have ever used cover crops, and those who have tried them have planted only a tiny fraction of their land. Fear of yield loss and time constraints are the main reasons farmers cite to explain why they dont experiment with cover crops. New Tools Reduce Barriers to Cover Cropping Cover crops can t into no-till systems when they are killed with herbicides and/or rolled. Improved tillage equipment lets growers incorporate mature covers including rye and vetch mixes that add biomass and nitrogen. New one-pass tillage tools leave plenty of surface residue and a level seedbed while reducing both the energy and time it takes to incorporate heavy covers like winter rye. Even though these vertical disks are wider to suit todays applications, they have been constructed to make them easy to transport on existing rural roads. Hopefully these advances in techniques and technology will help make cover cropping more mainstream. Mainstreaming cover crops will be an important part of conserving arable land.

Key Term

Ecosystem Services
Ecosystem services include provisioning, such as the production of food and water; regulating, such as the control of climate and disease; supporting, such as nutrient cycles and crop pollination; and cultural, such as spiritual and recreational benets. Soils contribute to all of these essential ecosystem services. Cover cropping can help maintain soil health and ensure that its services continue.

Cover Crops Can Protect Soil From Increasingly Intense Rains and Flooding The increased frequency and intensity of spring and fall rains in this region have increased both the need to protect prime agricultural land with winter covers and perennial buffers and the challenge of using these methods. Fortunately, new farm programs might encourage more farmers to make the extra effort. At present the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and Conservation Stewardship Programs provide cost-share payments of $50 to $80 per acre depending on the scenario and the cover crop grown. At these rates it would cost us about a billion dollars to protect the arable soils in Illinois and Iowa. This is a fraction of the costs of the ood damage experienced in Illinois and Iowa in 2008. Changes in drainage and hydrology have combined with agricultural intensication and urban sprawl to make our landscape more vulnerable to intense weather. Planting cover crops

Crop Rotation

Cover Crops and the Bottom Line

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and buffers would not have stopped the rains, but countless studies indicate that their presence would have reduced ooding, leaching, and erosion, and as a result would have done much to keep needed nutrients and organic matter where they belong. Programs Paying Farmers to Sequester Carbon Could Increase Adoption of Cover Crops Market-based programs that provide modest peracre payments (approximately $2 per ton of carbon sequestered) to reward farmers for using practices that increase soil organic matter might provide additional encouragement if they rewarded farmers for planting covers. Programs available today reward farmers for use of no-tillage practices and permanent grass sod. There is plenty of evidence suggesting that cover crops and diversied rotations both increase soil organic matter levels. Work has been ongoing for a decade to improve site-specic estimation of carbon sequestration rates in Illinois. Studies addressing the inuence of notillage practices applied to corn and soybean production systems, the use of organic management practices, and the inclusion of cover crops in row crop production have found that sequestration rates vary among soils.

Increases in Soil Carbon Bene t Production and the Environment


Simple calculations show that the bene ts of soil organic matter to crop performance greatly exceed the value that is being paid for carbon sequestration and that small gains in soil organic matter are worth money.
Per-acre value ($) of soil Changes in stock size organic carbon Soil organic N C (metric Total min N tons) N (kg) (kg) supply Yield Sequestration A B C D E F G Management 24.8 1,920 57.6 20.2 87 0 0 Base row crop 26.0 2,080 62.4 21.2 91 13 1 Organic A: Values at the Windsor Organic Research Trial from beginning and end of 3-yr transition study (sequestration rate would be 11.4 metric tons of carbon per year. B: Assuming increases of 11.8 units of N per 10 units of soil organic carbon C: Assuming I had 3% of total N mineralizes to become plant-available D: Assuming Mineralized N is valued at $0.34 kg N E: Productivity value of soil organic matter associated with expected corn F: Value of annual increase in soil organic carbon in EU=(organic-base metric ton cabon 1/3 years in transition x $33 metric ton carbon paid by EU exchange. G: Value of annual increase in soil organic carbon in US = rate of exchange x $2.3 metric ton carbon paid by Chicago Climate Exchange.

crops or simple yield increases show that direct benets to crops are worth as much as or more to farmers than carbon Cover Cropping and Organic Management Practices payments, at least at rates set by voluntary markets now Both Sequester Soil Carbon in Illinois Study available to Corn Belt farmers. Prices for soil carbon are On-farm and experiment station results show that cover likely to increase tenfold if we cap carbon emissions and alcropping and organic production produce soil carbon seques- low soil sequestration to be included as an offset for greentration rates similar to those achieved in no-tillage systems, house gas emissions. ranging from 0 to 0.5 metric tons per acre per year. The upper rate is in line with credits being given by the Chicago Climate Cover Crops a New Opportunity for Farmers Exchange for using no-tillage practices for row crops. Lower Cover cropping, like no-till, is an opportunity for farmers rates of sequestration can occur when soil organic matter levels are high before the new practices are adopted or if factors to protect their soil and boost their bottom line. Crops could like drought, other production factors, or extreme moisture also protect soils from the increasingly intense weather reduce productivity and/or accelerate organic matter decom- events farmers are likely to face with climate change. Poliposition. We already know that decay rates will increase with cies that reward farmers for cover cropping could increase temperatures. This means the amount of residue or biomass rates of adoption. returned to the soil will need to be increased to maintain curAbout the Researchers rent soil organic matter reserves. Cover Crops Provide Nitrogen to Soil, Increase Yield Estimates of the value of ecosystem services provided by soil organic matter in the form of nitrogen supplied to
Dr. Michelle Wander is an associate professor in the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois. Dr. Carmen Ugarte is a postdoctoral researcher in the same department.

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

Editors:

Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (jmarlin@illinois.edu) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

Change and the Heartland

How Climate Change Will Affect the Midwest

Big issues, bite-sized lessons

What will the Climate be like in 2050?

hile climate change is a problem around the entire world, its important to understand how it is already affecting us close to home, and is likely to continue doing so. Scientists at the University of Illinois are working hard to project how the Midwests climate will change over the coming century and how those changes will affect our health, our agriculture, and our economy. 2050s Climate Depends on Our Energy Choices The amount of climate change expected in the next century depends to a large extent on the energy choices we make today and over the next decade or two. These choices will determine future emissions of heat-trapping gases. If emissions continue to grow, as they have over the last hundred years, a temperature increase of 4 to 8 degrees can be expected across the Midwest. But if emissions can be reduced, temperatures are likely to increase by 2.5 to 5 degrees instead. More and Longer Heat Waves, Lower Air Quality In 1995, a heat wave in Chicago led to 700 deaths. Temperatures soared as high as 106 degrees during the day and stayed above 80 degrees on many of the hottest nights. Such heat waves will be more commonplace in 2050. Under lower emissions scenarios, they could occur once per decade. Under higher emissions scenarios, they could happen once a year. Those heat waves will increase the risk of blackouts as power plants are strained by air conditioner use, leaving citizens more vulnerable to high temperatures. Along with higher temperatures will come increased ozone production. When breathed, ozone harms our lungs. It particularly affects the young, the old, and people with asthma.

Climate Projection for Illinois

With higher emissions, Illinois summers may feel more like those in Tennessee or Alabama, and Michigan would feel like Kentucky. With lower emissions, Illinois could feel like Arkansas, and Michigan could feel like southern Illinois.

Hot Weather Means More Mosquitoes and Ticks, New Pests and Diseases Cold winter temperatures are what keep the Midwest safe from many of the pests and weeds that thrive in southern states. Mild winters may allow new insect pests, such as re ants, and new weeds, such as kudzu, to spread throughout the Midwest. Mild winters will also extend the season for existing pests, including

Climate 2050

Projections for the Midwest

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mosquitos and ticks. New pests and higher populations of existing pests increase the risk of of diseases like West Nile virus. Waterborne diseasecausing bacteria, viruses, and protozoa will also ourish in warmer temperatures, leading to more frequent beach closures. Those waterborne diseases could become a health hazard when more frequent heavy downpours increase the risk of ooding. Wetter springs also may delay planting, while more intense storms increase the likelihood of damaging oods. Long-Term Drop in Great Lakes Levels as Evaporation Increases

Warmer temperatures mean less ice covering the Great Lakes during winter. Reduced ice cover extends the length of time that water can evaporate from the lakes into the air. Crops Would Welcome Longer Growing Season, Though increased evaporation may initially be offset by But Weather May Bring Damage and Delays increasing precipitation, evaporation is likely to dominate by midcentury. Farmers will have a longer growing season in 2050, and the Long-term average lake levels are projected to drop extra CO2 in the atmosphere may help crops grow more quick- by 0.5 feet for Lake Superior and up to 1.5 feet for Lake Michigan, requiring costly dredging to keep many canals ly. But these benets are likely to be offset by other factors. Mild winters will allow different insects and diseases of and harbors open. crops to move up from the south, while outbreaks of pests already present in the Midwest will increase in severity. Midwestern Summers May Feel Like South, Winters Also, increased CO2 will tend to benet weeds more than More Like East certain crops. The drier, hotter summers may mean cropAs the climate shifts, Midwesterners may experience killing droughts and temperatures that inhibit pollination of plants like corn. The heat will also affect livestock produc- summers more like those in the South, and winters more like the East. Illinois summers, for example, by 2050 may tion as farmers pay more to keep their animals cool. feel more like Alabama under lower emissions scenarios, More Frequent, More Severe Heat Waves or like east Texas under higher emissions scenarios. Although winters will be warmer by 2050, well still see about as much snow, meaning that Chicago winters, for example, may feel more like Cleveland does today under a lower emissions future, or like Pittsburgh under a higher one. Native Midwestern plants and animals will have to shift along with the climate or risk possible extinction. Urban areas and the Great Lakes may inhibit that migration. The Future Is in Our Hands Climate change has already irrevocably altered the character of the Midwest, but our emission decisions today will make a difference tomorrow. Making sound, sensible emission reductions will ensure that our communities, our economy, and our ecosystems continue to thrive.
About the Researchers Dr. Donald Wuebbles is the Harry E. Preble Endowed Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois. Katharine Hayhoe is an adjunct research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois and a professor in the Department of Geosciences at Texas Tech University.
Editors: Michelle Wander (mwander@illinois.edu) John E. Marlin (marlinje@gmail.com) Designers: John E. Marlin, Crystal Bartanen Copyeditor: Molly Bentsen

By mid-century in Chicago, heat waves similar to the record-breaking one in 1995 may occur as often as every 10 years, on average, under a lower emissions future, and once every year under higher emissions.
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, NOAA/USGCRP (2009)

Copyright 2010, University of Illinois Board of Trustees. Change and the Heartland was developed for the Environmental Change Institute by the Agroecology and Sustainable Agriculture Program, in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. To read the rest of the series, visit eci.illinois.edu.

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