Tuesday, 19 June, 2012

5 Day Statewide Weather Outlook

No Threat
Lightning
South FL (Tue-Sat), Central FL (Wed, Thu-Sat), North FL (Thu- Sat)

Low Threat
Flooding Damaging Wind/Hail Tornado

Moderate Threat
Excessive Heat
North FL (Fri-Sat)

High Threat
Tropical
South FL/Gulf Coast

Wildfire
North & Central FL (Tue-Wed) Statewide (Thu-Sat)

Rip Currents
Southeast FL (TueThu, Fri-Sat); Northeast/East Central FL (Tue-Fri, Sat); Panhandle (Tue-Sat)

South Florida (Tues-Sat) Central FL (Wed-Sat)

Low Pressure Trough and Moisture Moving Northward

Approaching Tropical Disturbance Brings Rain Florida

Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center

Total Forecast Rainfall (in inches) through Saturday

Heavy Rain Event Possible Across South Florida Through the WeekendMinor Coastal Flooding Possible in the Florida Keys, With Localized Flooding of Roadways in Urban and Low-Lying AreasDry Conditions Continue for North Florida, but Rain Chances Increase Later in the WeekModerate to High Rip Current Risk Along the Florida East Coast and Much of the PanhandleTropics Beginning to Get Active
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 06.19.12

Tuesday: High pressure will remain in place over North and Central Florida Tuesday which will bring mostly sunny and pleasant conditions to areas north of Lake Okeechobee. A few isolated showers may develop along the sea breeze and affect coastal locations, but rain chances are less than 20% and most of the area will stay dry. Mostly clear and calm conditions over North and Central Florida will persist through the overnight hours. A few coastal showers along the Atlantic Coast may develop, but much like the forecast for today, most areas will stay dry. Under nearly full sunshine, daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected for much of the area. However, breezy east winds of 5-15 mph and gusts to 20mph along the Peninsula and 5-10mph along the Panhandle should help it feel pleasant and will actually keep daytime high temperatures along the East Coast in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will also fee pleasant, ranging from the mid and upper 60s inland to low and mid 70s near the coast across North Florida and ranging from the low to mid 70s across Central Florida. For South Florida, a different story is unfolding. Increasing moisture and energy associated with a low pressure disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean Sea will bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances to the southern Peninsula through the next couple of days and perhaps beyond. Rainfall amounts may reach up to 1-1.5 inches today and a few thunderstorms will likely develop over the area. Although widespread severe weather is not expected, a few of the storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Showers and isolated storms will continue overnight into Wednesday morning. Increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across South Florida Tuesday afternoon and in the mid to upper 70s overnight. Wednesday: Beyond Tuesday, the forecast becomes much more complicated and depends on what comes of the disturbance in the Caribbean. All of the computer models show it moving slowly northward into the south or southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and that some weak development may occur west of the Florida Keys. Regardless of any organized tropical development, as it lifts northward on Wednesday, it will begin to stream abundant tropical moisture into the southern half of the state. The question is how far north this moisture will go through the end of the week. It is more likely that given the presence of high pressure to the north of Florida, that North Florida and Central Florida areas north of the I-4 corridor should once again be mostly dry on Wednesday, with the exception of a very small chance of isolated showers near the coast in the afternoon. Lingering showers may be present east of I-75 at night as east winds continue to push any coastal showers onshore. Further south, moisture should spread northward into southern Central Florida towards Tampa and Melbourne, resulting in a 20-40% chance of scattered showers for the area during the day and a 20-30% chance overnight. South of Lake Okeechobee, a 60-80% of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast since that area will be closest to the disturbance. Although lightning strikes and gusty winds are possible in thunderstorms, the main threat will be heavy rainfall from the early morning hours through Wednesday night, especially near Southwest Florida. Current rainfall estimates are between 0.5 and 1.5 across mainland South Florida, with 1-3 inches possible along the Florida Keys. Although it will generally take about 3.5-4 inches of rain to generate significant flash flooding concerns, any heavy rainfall occurring in a short period of time, especially in urbanized areas, may cause flooding issues. If the threat of heavy rain increases, Flood Watches will likely be issued for much of South Florida on Wednesday.
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 06.19.12

Mostly cloudy skies and rain will keep temperatures in the low 80s along the Keys and mid to upper 80s across mainland South Florida Wednesday afternoon while more sunshine further north results in highs reaching the upper 80s low 90s. The close proximity of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will keep breezy conditions in place with east winds around 10-20 mph statewide, which may also help keep East Coast areas a few degrees cooler. Overnight lows will begin to warm from previous nights and most of the state should only drop into the low and mid 70s overnight. However, a few inland Northeast Florida areas might briefly dip into the upper 60s. Thursday-Saturday: The main story for the end of the week into the weekend will continue to be where the low pressure disturbance moves and how much moisture will be in place over the area. Computer models generate an area of low pressure, but differ in its placement, ranging from the southcentral Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campache near the Yucatan Peninsula while a strong ridge high pressure stretches across the Southern Plains and eastern U.S. This may likely generate a weak steering flow and many models keep the disturbance in the Gulf through the next several days. This is where things get interesting and the forecast becomes highly uncertain. Long story short, keep the umbrellas handy because most of the state should see at least some rain this weekend. Even if the low develops in the southwestern or south-central Gulf, an attached boundary currently forecast by many of the models should continue to provide the impetus for abundant tropical moisture spreading north across the state from the eastern side of the system. High pressure north of the state should limit the amount of rain activity across North Florida and rain chances are only around 20-30% Thursday through Saturday during both the day and nighttime periods, but high rain chances in the 40-60% range will continue across Central and South Florida through the weekend. If the low is not steered further west, these rain chances will likely increase statewide. Once again, heavy rainfall will be the main threat, but it looks like most of the heavier amounts may stay offshore. Rainfall totals Thursday through Saturday are expected to be in the 1-3 in range across South Florida, with lesser amounts across North and Central Florida. This would make 5 day cumulative totals in the 2-6 inch range south of Lake Okeechobee and up to 2 inches northward, with isolated higher amounts possible. Because of the heavy rainfall and above normal tides in the Florida Keys, minor coastal flooding is possible along with street flooding in the lower-lying areas of the islands. Daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast to continue across North and Central Florida through Saturday, with mid to upper 80s across South Florida each afternoon. However, a few inland North Florida locations may reach the mid 90s by Saturday and heat index values may reach the upper 90s to low 100s Friday and Saturday afternoon across North Florida. Overnight lows continue the warming trend, with statewide lows Saturday night in the 70s. NWS Mobile Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards Current Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Listed By County

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 06.19.12

Rip Currents: At the coast, wind and ocean conditions will bring a high risk of rip currents to the beaches of Southeast Florida Tuesday. Strong onshore winds, lingering ocean swells, and tidal effects will combine to bring this risk to the coastlines of Palm Beach County through MiamiDade County. These same conditions will bring a moderate risk to the beaches of Northeast Florida and East Central Florida. For the Western Panhandle beaches, winds and waves will also result in a moderate rip current risk along the Emerald Coast. The rest of Floridas Gulf Coast will see a low risk Tuesday. Conditions on Wednesday will be similar, with an elevated risk along the Panhandle and Atlantic Coastlines. With high pressure to our north and the disturbance to our south, winds will remain elevated and in a general onshore direction along the Atlantic Coast this week. These winds in combination with rough surf and ocean swells and currents will keep an increased rip current risk in place along the entire Atlantic Coast, from Nassau County through Miami-Dade County through Saturday. Moderate easterly winds will also persist along the Emerald Coast and the coastline of the Western Big Bend through the early part of the weekend and this will also keep the rip current risk elevated along these beaches. For the rest of the Gulf Coast, although rough surf is in the forecast, offshore winds will likely keep the rip current risk at a lower level along the beaches of the Eastern Big Bend, Nature Coast and the Sun Coast. We encourage all beachgoers that plan to enter the surf to look for warning flags and to also swim within sight of a lifeguard. Everyone should check their local rip current forecast and learn how to escape a rip current before going to their beach destination. Drought & Fire Weather: Our fire weather concerns will remain at a lower level this week due to elevated rain chances and increasing humidity values throughout the state. However, with isolated thunderstorms in the forecast, we will continue to have a minor threat for lightning induced wildfires. We encourage all residents and visitors to stay Firewise. With the summer-like pattern of afternoon showers and storms settling over the state, our drought is slowly decreasing and should continue to improve through August. However, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows 73.5% of the state is still under abnormally dry conditions, 22% under a severe drought, and only 1.75% of the northern Big Bend under extreme drought. The estimated rainfall amounts needed to eliminate the drought are near 3-6 inches over the Florida Panhandle, western Big Bend, and northern Central Florida. An estimated 6-9 inches of rain (on top of the normal rain value for this time of year) is needed for many areas south of the I-4 Corridor and away from the immediate coast of Southeast Florida. Tropics: The eastern Atlantic is expected to remain quiet over the next five days, but a few disturbances are developing in the Caribbean Sea, as well as the western Atlantic north of Bermuda. According to the National Hurricane Center, the low north of Bermuda still has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system within the next 2 days. However, it is running out of time as it will begin to enter a more hostile environment by Thursday. Even if development occurs, this system will not be a threat to the U.S. and will move northeast into the open Atlantic. As for the large disturbance in the northwest Caribbean Sea, there is currently a low chance (10%) of any tropical development before Thursday, but it will still bring the threat for heavy rainfall to Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas as it slowly moves northwest into the Gulf of Mexico at 5-10 mph. However, many computer models are indicating that conditions
FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 06.19.12

could become more favorable for development late in the week and that an area of low pressure may organize. Models differ in the placement of the low, ranging from the eastern Gulf of Mexico west of the Florida Keys to the southwestern Gulf in the Bay of Campeche. At this time, its interaction with a trough of low pressure affecting Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico may keep it from becoming a significant system, but its worth watching through the week, especially since some computer models eventually bring the low northward to the Central Gulf Coast early next week. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ocean is expected to remain quiet with a broad area of high pressure stretching from the Azores to Bermuda combining with extremely dry air from the Sahara Desert.
For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here.

Have a great week!! Amy Godsey, State Meteorologist Michelle Palmer, Deputy State Meteorologist State Meteorological Support Unit Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org www.KidsGetAPlan.com

FDEM Statewide Weather Synopsis 06.19.12