Beverly-Hanks & Associates Third Quarter Market Report 2011

Beverly-Hanks & Associates
Third Quarter Market Report 2011
Executive Summary & Regional Forecast
County Specific Market Review
Commercial, Distressed & Land Market Review Pages 8-10
Pages 2-3
Pages 4-7
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Presidents Message
We are pleased to provide you with our third-quarter report and assessment of the WNC real estate markets. Sharing information and counsel to assist in informed decision making is a central premise of our companys mission. This report is the result of the research of numerous individuals within our organization. It is this type of teamwork, an unwavering focus upon our customers, and the assembly of Western North Carolinas top real estate professionals that has continuously garnered Beverly-Hanks and Associates position as the market leader. For a complete digital version and the supporting data, please go to beverly-hanks.com. We welcome the opportunity to be of service. Warm Regards,
Executive Summary
The important point I want to convey is this: the market is improving! Some statistics (such as those in the Market Indicator graph at the bottom of the page) show a view of the past, and these are the indicators most often reported in the media. Dont necessarily believe everything you hear.
Sales Pace
You may recall that at the end of the second quarter we expressed optimism for improvement in sales for the last half of 2011. I am pleased to report that third quarter sales were significantly improved. It was not until May of this year that our pending sales (tentative agreements between buyers and sellers) began to outpace 2010. Pending sales are a better indicator of current market conditions than closed sales. Closed transactions often lag pending sales by as much as 90 days. Our market has experienced a strong summer and fall sales season. I am pleased to report that Beverly-Hanks pending sales are up 10 percent and we are on pace for our best year since 2008.
Values
Average sales price continues to fall; this is a reflection of both devaluation and buyers current preference towards purchasing more modest homes.
Inventory
Distressed sales continue to increase as a percentage of total sales and are currently twenty-two percent for the year. We are pleased to introduce in this edition of our report a page (9) dedicated to reporting on distressed properties in the region. We expect this trend to continue for some time. Many banks still have large inventories of property and are releasing them into the market on a gradual basis. Strategic defaults by borrowers who are underwater continue to increase and until unemployment and the overall economy improve many borrowers will continue to struggle.
Trends
Neal Hanks Jr. President
Our projections for the near future are continued gradual improvement with downward pressure on prices. Inventory levels remain excessive and todays buyer is more cautious and more investment minded than ever before. We believe the bottom of this market correction is behind us and that price stabilization is on the horizon. A Beverly-Hanks and Associates Realtor can provide you with a thorough analysis of the market and help you determine if there are opportunities available to you.
Market Indicators
2010 Year End
2010 Q3 2011 Q3 3,650 188 92.5% 405 3,648 215 91.9% 405
2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 -.05% -6.31% 14.36% -.65% 0%

Market deterioration No change Market improvement
Home Sales (units) Average Sales Price Average Days on Market Average List to Sell Ratio Average Units Sold/Month
4,649 169 92.23% 390
$250,894 $228,369 $213,954
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Information in the above chart is derived from Buncombe, Henderson, Haywood, Madison, Rutherford, Polk, and Transylvania counties real estate markets. Information as reported by the NC Mountains Multiple Listing Service, which does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
Regional Forecast
Who Will Buy All The Homes?
With an overabundance of inventory and a sales pace that is only increasing modestly, we are often asked how our markets will ever absorb all of the available homes. Before we answer, lets consider our local market a little more thoroughly. We know that at our current sales pace the market is buying (absorbing) 405 residential units (homes) every month. With a current inventory of 8,666 residential units, it would take twenty-one months for all of the current inventory to be purchased assuming that no additional ones are introduced. In a twelve month period we could expect to absorb 56% of the 8,666 homes currently offered for sale. There is some optimism that the sales pace will increase as the number of households expands. That number in the Asheville MSA (Buncombe, Henderson, Madison, and Haywood Counties) is expected to increase from 180,000 to 190,000 by 2015*. Even with the expansion of households this would still leave a score of homes to be purchased. Again, we have to ask the question. Who will purchase the remaining inventory? *2010 US Census
In-Migration
Folks from other regions will be essential to the balancing of our markets. VP of Relocation Larry Zapf confirms that the strongest in-migration will originate from eastern NC with Florida a strong second. This trend has been historically consistent. Beverly-Hanks.com analytics allow us to track website viewers by geography, which we believe is a leading indicator for future purchasers. The top states for viewership are described in Graph (A). The viewership and recent closed transactions of California and Texas have caught our attention and we are preparing initiatives accordingly. We believe that out-of-town buyers are especially essential to the luxury market recovery. An additional 28,000+ viewers have visited Beverly-Hanks listings via its Luxury Portfolio marketing program LuxuryPortfolio.com. To view the most 1 popular states for our luxury viewership visit our Facebook page.
Everyone Loves WNC

The worlds love affair with WNC is critical to market stability.
Accolades from the past 120 days:

OUTSIDE MAGAZINE TRIP ADVISOR
Dupont State Forest, Top 5 State Parks in the Nation Top 10 Food and Wine Destinations
Beverly-hanks.com
views by state
Other, 26,658!
GOOD MORNING AMERICA

Most Beautiful Place in America
AMERICAN STYLE
North Carolina, 51,980!
20.00! 18.00! 16.00! 14.00!
Top 25 Small City Arts Destinations

Virginia, 939! Pennsylvania, 968! California, 1,180! Tennessee, 1,231! Texas, 1,352!
FODORS
21 Places Were Going In 2011
Georgia, 1,882! New York, 2,013! South Carolina, 3,391! Florida, 5,089!
12.00! 10.00! Freddie Mac Fixed 30 Yr.! 8.00! 6.00! 4.00! 2.00! 0.00!
Second Homes and Investors
It is likely that many of these out-of-area buyers will be second home purchasers or investors. Second home purchasers are realizing that now is the time to realize their dream of a home in the mountains and with prices bottoming out and interest rates at 50 year lows well positioned investors are capable of earning returns that havent been available in our markets for years.
Although Freddie Mac attempts to provide reliable, useful information in this document, Freddie Mac does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Estimates contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac currently and are subject to change without notice. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution. 2010 by Freddie Mac !
Now is the Time
An uptick in interest rates (Graph B), which is almost certainly to come, will alter the landscape for purchasers. The change is expected to create a sense of urgency among out-of-area second home and investor buyers easing the burden of our existing inventory levels.
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Apr-71! Apr-72! Apr-73! Apr-74! Apr-75! Apr-76! Apr-77! Apr-78! Apr-79! Apr-80! Apr-81! Apr-82! Apr-83! Apr-84! Apr-85! Apr-86! Apr-87! Apr-88! Apr-89! Apr-90! Apr-91! Apr-92! Apr-93! Apr-94! Apr-95! Apr-96! Apr-97! Apr-98! Apr-99! Apr-00! Apr-01! Apr-02! Apr-03! Apr-04! Apr-05! Apr-06! Apr-07! Apr-08! Apr-09! Apr-10! Apr-11!
Buncombe County Market Review

Market Indicators
2010 Year End
2010 Q3 2011 Q3
2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 -5.83% 16.77% -0.10% 0%
Average Sales Price Days on Market Average List to Sell Ratio Average Units Sold/Month
$251,026 $246,779 $232,373 166 93% 186 155 93.40% 192 181 93.30% 192
Indicators continue to reflect the impact of distressed property sales and consumers changing appetites. The average sales price ended 5.8% lower than this time last year and the days on the market has increased to nearly 200. Increased sales are leading to some optimism. Properties compellingly priced are even garnering competition among buyers.
2 Inventory Absorption Trends
Inventory Absorption Trends

Price Range
Balanced Market Prices Sellers Market Prices
Buyers Market Prices
Trend
# of Months 10 Q3
# of Months 11 Q3
Price Range
Trend
# of Months 10 Q3
# of Months 11 Q3
MONTHS
Inventory Gauge 15.6 Months of Inventory

13% from Q2
$0 to $75K $75 to $150K $150 to $200K $200 to $250K $250 to $300K $300 to $350K $350 to $400K $400 to $450K $450 to $500K $500 to $550K
4 12 14 15 19 18 28 20 23 30
4 11 12 16 18 19 22 15 28 21
$550 to $600K $600 to $700K $700 to $800K $800 to $900K $900 to $1M $1 to $2M $2 to $3M $3 to $5M $5M +
Indicates an increase in available homes for sale Indicates a decrease in available homes for sale
* *
42 44 71 52 138 102 90
* *
40 43 33 54 45 176 31 11
Closed Sales
Indicates inability to calculate trend due to lack of sales activity
Indicates no change in available homes for sale
Most price ranges have seen a decrease in inventory. This reduction is the result of a few factors. Some sellers are simply withdrawing from the market and are content to hope for recovery. After years of waiting, a flurry of current sales activity in the high-end market has boosted the optimism of sellers. The perceptible decrease in inventory is motivating some buyers to act. Consumers increasingly believe that the market has bottomed or is very close to bottoming out. With residential lot prices similar to those in 1990s, some buyers are even beginning to build.
$900 to $1M! 0.1%! $800 to $900K! 0.3%! $700 to $800K! 1.2%!
$1 to $2M! 0.7%! $75 to $150K! 27.2%!
$0 to $75K! 6.6%!
$150 to $200K! 20.1%!
$550 to $600K! 0.9%!
$600 to $700K! 0.6%! $200 to $250K! 14.0%!
$500 to $550K! 1.9%! $450 to $500K! 2.4%! $400 to $450K! 3.2%! $350 to $400K! 4.7%!
$250 to $300K! 10.3%! $300 to $350K! 5.6%!
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Information as reported by the NC Mountains Multiple Listing Service, which does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
Henderson County Market Review

Market Indicators
Days on Market
Average Sales Price
2010 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 Year End $224,319 $223,149 $193,947
Average List to Sell Ratio Average Units Sold/Month

92% 84
225
92.65% 85
212
92.8% 82
227
2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 -13% .16% -4% 7%
Closed sales in quarter three when compared to the same months in 2010 are up 20% with a total of 281 sales. The current increased sales pace and inventory reduction are welcome news for the sellers. The average sales price declined by an additional 13.4% during the first nine months of 2011 as compared to the same time period in 2010.
2 Inventory Absorption Trends

Price Range $0 to $75K $75 to $150K $150 to $200K $200 to $250K $250 to $300K $300 to $350K $350 to $400K $400 to $450K $450 to $500K $500 to $550K Trend # of Months 10 Q3 6 16 17 22 26 27 35 31 29 37 # of Months 11 Q3 5 13 20 23 23 44 36 34 45 63 Price Range $550 to $600K $600 to $700K $700 to $800K $800 to $900K $900 to $1M $1 to $2M $2 to $3M $3 to $5M $5M +
# of Trend Months 10 Q3 220 52 160 95 75 72 90
The number of properties available has decreased by 8%. Sales have been only partially responsible for this reduction. Homes being withdrawn or converted into rentals have also contributed to the decline. Since quarter two, the number of months of inventory has decreased by 10% to 20.7 months. A balanced real estate market is commonly thought to be when there is six months of inventory available.
Indicates an increase in available homes for sale Indicates a decrease in available homes for sale Indicates inability to calculate trend due to lack of sales activity
* * *
# of Months 11 Q3 225 167 153 117 63 158

* *
* * *
MONTHS

10% from Q2
Closed Sales
$1 to $2M! 1%!
The two most active price ranges for closed homes continues to be $75,000 to $150,000 and $150,000 to $200,000. Year to date, over ninety-five percent of all sales have been below $500,000. The successful sale of homes in these lower sales brackets has been primarily responsible for the additional downward pressure on the average sales price in Henderson County.
$600 to $700K! 0%! $500 to $550K! 1%! $450 to $500K! 2%! $400 to
$75 to $150K! 33%! $0 to $75K! 10%!
$450K! 3%! $150 to $200K! 24%!
$350 to $400K! 2%! $300 to $350K! 4%! $250 to $300K! 8%!
$200 to $250K! 13%!
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Haywood County Market Review

1
Market Indicators
Average List to Sell Ratio Average Units Sold/Month

Days on Market
Average Sales Price
2010 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 Year End $196,218 $200,796 $186,040
90% 42
267
90.12% 42
248
90.6% 44
275
10.88% 0.53% 4.76%
2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 -7.3%
The Haywood County market continues to offer opportunities for those with resources to purchase and remains challenging for those who need to liquidate. As sellers are making significant reductions to asking prices, the numbers of homes going under contract is increasing as the end of the fall selling season nears.
2

Price Range $0 to $75K $75 to $150K $150 to $200K $200 to $250K $250 to $300K $300 to $350K $350 to $400K $400 to $450K $450 to $500K $500 to $550K Trend # of Months 10 Q3 8 18 30 49 53 42 74 40 223 120 # of Months 11 Q3 6 22 28 39 69 44 73 47 60 27 Price Range $550 to $600K $600 to $700K $700 to $800K $800 to $900K $900 to $1M $1 to $2M $2 to $3M $3 to $5M $5M + Trend
MONTHS

5% from Q2
County festivals and street fairs, critical elements of the local economy, have produced larger numbers of attendees in recent years. This increased visitorship will likely spur sales activity as visitors recognize values here in second homes and vacant land. Market recovery is inextricably linked to the vacation and second home markets. These glimmers of improvement are reason for cautious optimism for those property owners who purchased during the boom years.
* * * *
# of Months 10 Q3 290 60 80 160 70 200
# of Months 11 Q3 131 59 60 99 126
* * *
* * * *
Closed Sales
Twelve out of nineteen price ranges demonstrated increased sales activity. Times are difficult for sellers expecting to obtain in excess of $1 million for their property, since no sales have occurred since the beginning of the year. Investors looking for rental properties had avoided the county in the recent past as escalating prices made their return on investment unappealing. This trend is quickly changing with many homes selling well below $100,000, making vacation rental properties tempting for investors.
$700 to $800K! 1.4%!
$900 to $1M! 0.7%! $75 to $150K! 29.3%!
$600 to $700K! 0.7%! $500 to $550K! 1.4%! $450 to
$0 to $75K! 15.6%!
$500K! 0.7%!
$350 to $400K! 2.7%!
$300 to $350K! 6.8%!
$150 to $200K! 22.4%!
$250 to $300K! 8.2%!
$200 to $250K! 10.2%!
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Rutherford County Market Review

Market Indicators
2010 Year End
2010 Q3 2011 Q3
2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 46.29% -3.78% -22.38%
Average Sales Price Days on Market Average List to Sell Ratio Average Units Sold/Month
$279,526 $296,029 $243,986 -17.58% 296 91.77% 6.9 270 91.85% 6.7 395 88.37% 5.2
Like other counties that are dependent upon buyers for second home and vacation rental properties, Rutherford County has been particularly impacted by an over abundance of inventory, a larger percentage of distressed properties, and a lack of out-of-town buyers. With some of the regions deepest reductions in prices, the market is showing faint signs of improvement. Inventory levels in many price ranges have begun to decrease in recent months.
2

Price Range Trend
MONTHS

20% from Q2
$0 to $75K $75 to $150K $150 to $200K $200 to $250K $250 to $300K $300 to $350K $350 to $400K $400 to $450K $450 to $500K $500 to $550K
# of Months 10 Q3 10 20 36 39 85 23 48
# of Months 11Q3
Price Range
Trend
*
Closed Sales
Eleven of nineteen price ranges experienced reductions in inventory when September levels were compared to August. The opportunity for reasonable returns on investment are emerging for savvy investors. Many investors were pushed out of the market during the areas boom years leading up to 2006. With over 80% of sales occurring below $250,000, cash flowing vacation rental properties are beginning to become a reality once again.
105 350
8 22 39 28 60 35 72 170 60
$550 to $600K $600 to $700K $700 to $800K $800 to $900K $900 to $1M $1 to $2M $2 to $3M $3 to $5M $5M +
* * * * * * *
# of Months 10 Q3 80 100 110
# of Months 11 Q3
* * * * *
80 90
* * * * * * *
70
$700 to $800M! 1%! $600 to $700M! 1%! $450 to $500M! 2%! $400 to $450M! 1%! $350 to $400M! 4%! $300 to $350M! 5%! $250 to $300M! 6%! $200 to $250M! 11%! $0 to $75M! 30%!
$75 to $150M! 25%!
$150 to $200M! 14%!
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Beverly-Hanks
Commercial Real Estate Continues Upward Trend
Commercial real estate occupancy rates improved marginally in the third quarter continuing the upward trend since the perceived bottom during 2009 and 2010. While interest rates remain at historically low levels, funding for new commercial development is only available for projects with solid fundamentals and product demand. An absence of new product being built, and marginally improving employment figures, have been key factors in the absorption of existing commercial space. The construction of new commercial space will remain limited for the foreseeable future leading to improving rental and occupancy rates for owners of existing commercial real estate assets.
A
Fundamentals for Commercial Financing:
Space demand and preleasing Tenant and developer financials Location demographics
Chart A demonstrates that cumulative construction contract values are at the lowest levels in ten years.
News Headlines Affecting Commercial Real Estate

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the Twist in September. The central bank will swap $400 billion in short-term government bonds into longer maturing ones, and reinvest proceeds from maturing securities into mortgage-backed securities. The Fed Chairmans intent is to maintain interest rates at historically low levels. The US Government neared the brink of default on its debt in August, due to a stalemate on the required agreement to increase its debt ceiling. This was coupled with continued concern in Europe as EU nations and lenders work through debt concerns. Despite the gradual nature of the recovery for commercial real estate, many analysts and individual investors believe that many leading indicators continue to show signs of improvement.
Economic Leading Indicators
2008 8.8% $355 63%
2009 10.1% $320 59%
2010 9.8% $335 55%
2011 9.2% $350 60%
Forecast 2012 9.0% $365 62%
(US Bureau of Labor & Statistics) (US Census Bureau) (NAR)
US unemployment
Retail sales in billions Hotel occupancy
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Information as reported by the National Association of Realtors, which does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by NAR may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
Distressed Property Sales

The presence of distressed property in the marketplace continues to play a strong role in determining property values as well as impacting which price ranges are selling. Regionally, distressed properties account for 22% of sales, but only represent 7.4% of the available properties clearly demonstrating the publics interest in the values represented by distressed properties.
In Foreclosure! Short Sale! 2%! 3%! REO! 17%!
Types of Distressed Property

Foreclosure: Property obtained by a lender after a mortgagors inability to pay. Short Sale: The lender allows a property to be sold for less than the amount owed on a mortgage. unsuccessful sale at a foreclosure auction.
Henderson County In foreclosure units Short sale units REO units Total distressed sales 736 YTD 10 16 104 130
Non-Distressed! 78%!
REO: Property owned by a lender after an
Buncombe County In foreclosure units Short sale units REO units Total distressed sales
1,727 YTD 45 58 257 360
Total Closed Units 2.6% 3.4% 14.9% 20.8%
Haywood County In foreclosure units Short sale units REO units Total distressed sales
394 YTD 8 10 81 99
Rutherford County In foreclosure units Short sale units REO units Total distressed sales
140 YTD 4 3 30 37
Madison County In foreclosure units Short sale units REO units Total distressed sales
79 YTD 4 5 22 31
Polk County In foreclosure units Short sale units REO units Total distressed sales
107 YTD 2 1 15 18
Transylvania County In foreclosure units Short sale units REO units Total distressed sales
228 YTD 3 10 41 54
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WNC Land Market Review

The analogy of climbing a mountain seems particularly appropriate when considering the market for undeveloped residential lots (0-3 acres with restrictions). Essentially, the market for developable lots has improved, but there is still almost eleven years of inventory present in the market if the current sales pace continues. Four out of the seven counties benefited from increased sales when the first nine months of 2010 and 2011 are compared, Table A. Even with some counties reporting a reduced sales pace, the regions sales as a whole still increased by three percent giving some hope to sellers.
0-3 Acres with Restrictions

County Buncombe Haywood Henderson Polk Madison 2011 YTD Closed Units 145 60 49 9 Change from 2010 24% 5% 12% 300% 19% 3% 40% 87%
15 32
NCMtnsMLS
Transylvania
Rutherford
381
29
B
1,307! 1400! Active Units! 1,085! Closed Units YTD! 1,030! 1000! 1200!
800! 611! 644! 600!
400! 189! 60! Buncome! Haywood! 49! Henderson! 101! 15! Madison! 9! Polk! 32! 29!
Graph B demonstrates the unbalance present in the market even with this increased sales pace, which is largely confined to the lower price brackets. More than 80% of sales have taken place under $100,000. Many of the more expensive lots exist in developments that have struggled with high foreclosure rates, failing developers, and a lack of second home buyers. As we discussed early in the report, second home buyers were largely the target market for these more expensive lots and until they return, the higher priced lots will languish.
145!
200!
Rutherford! Transylvania!
0!
Active Parcels
C
$1 Million +, 17! $750-$1Mil, 24! $500-$750K, 54! $400-$500K, 63! $0 to $100K, 3,884!
Closed Sales
D
$0-$100K! 81.4%!
$300-$400K, 128!
$750-1Million! 0.3%! $500-$750K! 0.3%!
$200-$300K, 231! $100-$200K, 958!
$400$500K! 0.8%!
$300$400K! 1.8%! $200-
$100-$200K! 11.3%!
$300K! 4.2%!
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Local Market Results

Why should you care that we have been the market leader for more than 35 years? Our broker associates deliver consistent results that you can count on. They are industry-leading real estate professionals who are highly trained and prepared to provide you with expert counsel on the constantly changing market trends.
NC Mountains MLS Market Share: Sales Volume

2011 Quarter Three
30%! 25.7%! 25%! 20%! 15%! 10%!
8.5%! 13.5%! 11.2%! 9.4%!
22.6%!
21.2%!
23.2%!
23.1%!
25.3%!
25.4%!
25.8%!
Change in share due to change in how KW reports to regional MLS. Without change, share would be 15.09%!
15.1%!
15.2%!
15.3%! 12.0%!
5%! 0%!
2006YE!
2007YE!
2008YE!
2009YE!
2010YE!
2011Q1!
2011Q2!
2011Q3!
Beverly-Hanks & Associates! Prudential Lifestyle Realty!
Keller Williams Professionals! Century 21 Mountain Lifestyles!
Preferred Properties! RE/MAX Mountain Realty!
Information as reported by the NC Mountains MLS, which does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS may not reect all real estate activity in the market.
Other companies claim to have a competitive advantage. Our agents have many. Here are just a few:
Our affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World, the largest network of independent residential firms in the world includes 550 member companies representing 140,000 associates across the U.S. and in more than 30 countries. This affiliation along with our other lead referral programs generated $68 million of home sales for Beverly-Hanks just last year. Our Marketing Department has proven success in advertising, publishing and design. We prepare marketing reports, an annual buyers Welcome magazine, and proven advertising campaigns. Tried and true strategies like direct mail campaigns are in place for every listing. Beverly-Hanks Mortgage Services is owned and operated by Beverly-Hanks and Associates and its joint venture partner Cunningham & Company. Our loan officers have a vested interest in making sure your transaction closes on time with no surprises. Through our Buyer Assurance program, buyers are pre-approved before they even begin the process of searching for a home.
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Western North Carolina Market Review

All Counties in NC Mountains MLS
Price Range $0 to $75K $75 to $150K $150 to $200K $200 to $250K $250 to $300K $300 to $350K $350 to $400K $400 to $450K $450 to $500K $500 to $550K $550 to $600K $600 to $700K $700 to $800K $800 to $900K $900 to $1M $1 to $2M $2 to $3M $3 to $5M $5M Plus Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 42 62 59 28 27 13 6 8 4 2 2 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 42 71 49 30 23 14 12 7 7 1 0 5 3 1 0 2 0 0 0 53 88 52 37 25 14 9 6 5 0 3 1 3 0 6 0 0 0 44 76 40 39 19 12 14 7 2 5 6 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 49 74 48 35 17 17 8 7 6 4 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 49 49 57
95
Active Previous Monthly Year to Monthly Sold Months of inventory Month's Inventory % Date Average Inventory Inventory of Change 9/30/11 439 1016 748 454 330 190 134 95 64 45 23 33 27 14 6 27 0 0 0 3648 48.8 112.9 83.1 50.4 36.7 21.1 14.9 10.6 7.1 5 2.6 3.7 3 1.6 0.7 3 0 0 0 405.3 255 1588 1543 1144 1009 640 572 272 321 160 210 237 194 122 110 342 78 25 6 8828 5.2 14.1 18.6 22.7 27.5 30.3 38.4 25.7 45.2 32 80.8 64 64.7 76.2 157.1 114 unk unk unk 21.8 256 1562 1593 1166 1034 679 609 289 325 162 202 250 202 146 116 348 81 26 6 9052
-0.4
48
92
106 113 129 122 141 138 115 105 100 63 41 25 25 10 7 6 2 4 1 5 1 1 0 0 0 55 34 26 21 19 11 9 4 2 4 3 1 5 0 0 0 73 45 24 12 9 11 5 3 2 4 0 0 6 0 0 0 58 42 23 14 11 4 9 2 5 6 1 1 3 0 0 0
1.7
-3.1 -1.9 -2.4 -5.7 -6.1 -5.9 -1.2 -1.2 4 -5.2 -4 -16.4 -5.2 -1.7 -3.7 -3.8 0 -2.5
258 267 408 384 401 467 484 484 434
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Buncombe County Market Review

Buncombe County
Price Range $0 to $75M $75 to $150M $150 to $200M $200 to $250M $250 to $300M $300 to $350M $350 to $400M $400 to $450M $450 to $500M $500 to $550M $550 to $600M $600 to $700M $700 to $800M $800 to $900M $900 to 1M $1M to $2M $2M to $3M $3M-$5M $5M Plus Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 18 14 26 13 14 7 5 4 2 2 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 18 24 29 14 10 7 6 4 4 0 0 4 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 18 50 41 16 18 13 6 2 5 2 0 1 1 2 0 5 0 0 0 14 62 35 21 19 12 7 9 4 1 2 5 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 10 52 42 26 15 13 14 4 3 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 55 53 33 24 12 13 6 3 4 1 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 14 77 47 28 20 11 15 9 6 7 4 0 4 1 0 3 0 0 0 17 62 46 40 25 14 8 6 9 4 2 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 14 47 44 29 26 13 9 7 2 2 0 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 Active Previous Monthly Year to Monthly Sold Months of inventory Month's Inventory % Date Average Inventory Inventory of Change 9/30/11 122 448 367 221 175 104 83 52 38 24 13 19 18 9 8 9 0 0 0 1729 13.6 49.8 40.8 24.6 19.4 11.6 9.2 5.8 4.2 2.7 1.4 2.1 2 1 0.9 1 0 0 0 192.1 57 519 492 392 332 217 202 87 113 56 57 90 66 54 40 176 31 11 0 2992 4.2 10.4 12.1 15.9 17.1 18.7 22 15 26.9 20.7 40.7 42.9 33 54 44.4 176 unk unk unk 15.6 54 513 519 402 336 218 207 98 112 54 49 95 70 58 46 171 34 12 0 3048
5.6 1.2 -5.2 -2.5 -1.2 -0.5 -2.4 -11.2 0.9 3.7 16.3 -5.3 -5.7 -6.9 -13 2.9 -8.8 -8.3 0 -1.8
111 125 180 196 185 228 246 237 201
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Haywood County Market Review

Haywood County
Price Range $0 to $75M $75 to $150M $150 to $200M $200 to $250M $250 to $300M $300 to $350M $350 to $400M $400 to $450M $450 to $500M $500 to $550M $550 to $600M $600 to $700M $700 to $800M $800 to $900M $900 to $1M $1 to $2M $2M to $3M $3M to $5M $5M Plus Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 5 9 8 5 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 7 10 12 7 0 2 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 5 13 6 6 2 4 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 11 13 6 5 4 2 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 17 13 12 9 2 1 6 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 64 9 17 12 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 49 8 16 13 5 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 6 10 8 7 4 5 2 0 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 Active Previous Monthly Year to Monthly Sold Months of inventory Month's Inventory % Date Average Inventory Inventory of Change 9/30/11 75 107 84 50 23 20 10 6 7 4 2 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 396 8.3 11.9 9.3 5.6 2.6 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 44 48 258 252 217 169 97 81 31 40 12 29 26 20 11 14 22 3 2 0 1332 5.8 21.7 27.1 38.7 65 44.1 73.6 44.3 50 30 145 65 66.7 110 140 unk unk unk unk 30.3 46 246 234 223 159 111 91 32 41 12 30 25 21 15 13 24 4 2 0 1329
4.3 4.9 7.7 -2.7 6.3 -12.6 -11 -3.1 -2.4 0 -3.3 4 -4.8 -26.7 7.7 -8.3 -25
0 0
0.2
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Henderson County Market Review

Henderson County
Price Range $0 to $75M $75 to $150M $150 to $200M $200 to $250M $250 to $300M $300 to $350M $350 to $400M $400 to $450M $450 to $500M $500 to $550M $550 to $600M $600 to $700M $700 to $800M $800 to $900M $900 to $1M $1 to $2M $2M to $3M $3M to $5M $5M Plus Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 5 14 14 4 9 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 6 17 8 4 6 3 3 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 10 28 12 19 10 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 89 10 21 21 6 8 1 4 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 10 38 14 9 8 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 89 6 27 30 9 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 93 10 28 26 12 7 7 2 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 36 20 17 9 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 10 29 22 7 5 2 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 Active Previous Monthly Year to Monthly Sold Months of inventory Month's Inventory % Date Average Inventory Inventory of Change 9/30/11 78 241 169 87 73 27 24 14 12 4 1 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 739 8.7 26.8 18.8 9.7 8.1 3 2.7 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 82.1 40 352 362 222 186 132 96 53 60 28 25 37 34 13 14 35 8 2 0 1699 4.6 13.1 19.2 22.9 23 44 35.5 33.1 46.1 70 250 185 170 130 70 175 unk unk unk 20.7 48 350 364 225 191 139 110 55 59 31 27 38 30 17 15 35 9 1 1 1743
-16.7 0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -2.6 -5 -11.7 -3.4 1.7 -9.7 -7.4 -2.6 13.3 -23.5 -6.7 0 -11.1 100 -100 -2.5
101 100
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Madison County Market Review

Madison County
Price Range $0 to $75M $75 to $150M $150 to $200M $200 to $250M $250 to $300M $300 to $350M $350 to $400M $400 to $450M $450 to $500M $500 to $550M $550 to $600M $600 to $700M $700 to $800M $800 to $900M $900 to 1Mil $1M to $2M $2M to $3M $3M to $5M $5M Plus Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 4 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 4 3 3 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 2 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 1 2 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Active Previous Monthly Year to Monthly Sold Months of inventory Month's Inventory % Date Average Inventory Inventory of Change 9/30/11 15 19 18 5 8 5 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 79 1.7 2.1 2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.8 6 57 35 41 41 19 26 8 11 2 11 7 9 5 1 6 1 2 0 288 3.5 27.1 17.5 68.3 45.6 31.7 86.7 20 55 unk unk unk unk unk unk unk unk unk n/a 32.7 6 54 35 39 47 22 26 12 10 2 6 9 9 8 2 5 1 2 0 297
0 5.6 0 5.1 -12.8 -13.6 0 -33.3 10 0 83.3 -22.2 0 -37.5 -50 20
0 0 0
-3
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Polk County Market Review

Polk County
Price Range $0 to $75M $75 to $150M $150 to $200M $200 to $250M $250 to $300M $300 to $350M $350 to $400M $400 to $450M $450 to $500M $500 to $550M $550 to $600M $600 to $700M $700 to $800M $800 to $900M $900 to 1Mil $1M to $2M $2M to $3M $3M to $5M $5M Plus Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 0 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 1 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 4 3 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 6 1 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 1 3 4 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 17 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 2 3 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 Active Previous Monthly Year to Monthly Sold Months of inventory Month's Inventory % Date Average Inventory Inventory of Change 9/30/11 8 34 16 12 10 6 3 5 2 4 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 108 0.9 3.8 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.6 3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 0.1 0 0 0 12
5
5.6 15.8 34.4 32.3 31.8 50 90 22 85 17.5 65 150 50 60 unk 120 unk n/a n/a 30.2
6 61 74 50 41 33 34 14 16 10 15 12 14 7 7 16 7 0 0 416
-16.7 -1.6 -16.2 -16 -14.6 -9.1 -20.6 -21.4 6.3 -30 -13.3 25 -28.6 -14.3 -28.6 -25 -28.6 0
60 62 42 35 30 27 11 17 7 13 15 10 6 5 12 5 0 0 362
0
-13
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Rutherford County Market Review

Rutherford County
Price Range $0 to $75M $75 to $150M $150 to $200M $200 to $250M $250 to $300M $300 to $350M $350 to $400M $400 to $450M $450 to $500M $500 to $550M $550 to $600M $600 to $700M $700 to $800M $800 to $900M $900 to $1M $1M to $2M $2M to $3M $3M to $5M $5M Plus Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 8 7 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 4 7 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 4 5 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 8 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 3 3 1 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 2 4 2 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 2 1 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 6 2 6 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 5 2 4 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 Active Previous Monthly Year to Monthly Sold Months of inventory Month's Inventory % Date Average Inventory 9/30/11 Inventory of Change 42 34 19 16 9 7 5 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 140 4.7 3.8 2.1 1.8 1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 0 0 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.6 37 83 81 51 60 28 36 17 18 6 10 8 9 4 5 10 1 0 0 464 7.9 21.8 38.6 28.3 60 35 72 170 60 unk unk 80 90 unk unk unk unk n/a n/a 29.7 38 76 90 45 65 32 38 17 20 5 11 10 12 6 4 13 0 0 0 482
-2.6 9.2 -10 13.3 -7.7 -12.5 -5.3 0 -10 20 -9.1 -20 -25 -33.3 25 -23.1 100 0 0 -3.7
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Transylvania County Market Review

Transylvania County
Price Range $0 to $75M $75 to $150M $150 to $200M $200 to $250M $250 to $300M $300 to $350M $350 to $400M $400 to $450M $450 to $500M $500 to $550M $550 to $600M $600 to $700M $700 to $800M $800 to $900M $900 to $1M $1M to $2M $2M to $3M $3M to $5M $5M Plus Totals Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2 10 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 5 6 4 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 22 3 4 7 3 4 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 28 0 4 3 4 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 19 3 10 4 1 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 4 5 4 5 2 3 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 5 5 7 3 1 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 27 6 8 5 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 27 3 10 5 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 35 Active Previous Monthly Year to Monthly Sold Months of inventory Month's Inventory % Date Average Inventory 9/30/11 Inventory of Change 32 62 36 29 20 11 5 8 1 8 1 1 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 226 3.6 6.9 4 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0.8 0 0 0 25.1 23 104 128 84 99 62 61 40 33 33 37 33 29 15 15 48 17 5 0 866 6.4 15.1 32 26.2 45 51.7 122 44.4 330 36.7 370 330 290 unk unk 60 unk unk unk 34.5 18 103 130 89 104 64 59 36 40 31 39 34 25 21 15 50 15 5 3 881
27.8 1 -1.5 -5.6 -4.8 -3.1 3.4 11.1 -17.5 6.5 -5.1 -2.9 16 -28.6 0 -4 13.3 0 -300 -1.7
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Beverly-Hanks &amp; Associates Third Quarter Market Report 2011

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Beverly-Hanks &amp; Associates Third Quarter Market Report 2011

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Beverly-Hanks & Associates

Third Quarter Market Report 2011

Executive Summary & Regional Forecast

County Specific Market Review

Commercial, Distressed & Land Market Review Pages 8-10

Neal Hanks Jr. President

2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 -.05% -6.31% 14.36% -.65% 0%

4,649 169 92.23% 390

$250,894 $228,369 $213,954

Everyone Loves WNC

Accolades from the past 120 days:

GOOD MORNING AMERICA

Top 25 Small City Arts Destinations

21 Places Were Going In 2011

Second Homes and Investors

Now is the Time

Buncombe County Market Review

2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 -5.83% 16.77% -0.10% 0%

2 Inventory Absorption Trends

Inventory Absorption Trends

Inventory Gauge 15.6 Months of Inventory

Indicates inability to calculate trend due to lack of sales activity

Indicates no change in available homes for sale

$900 to $1M! 0.1%! $800 to $900K! 0.3%! $700 to $800K! 1.2%!

$1 to $2M! 0.7%! $75 to $150K! 27.2%!

$150 to $200K! 20.1%!

$550 to $600K! 0.9%!

$600 to $700K! 0.6%! $200 to $250K! 14.0%!

$250 to $300K! 10.3%! $300 to $350K! 5.6%!

Henderson County Market Review

Average Sales Price

2010 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 Year End $224,319 $223,149 $193,947

Average List to Sell Ratio Average Units Sold/Month

2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 -13% .16% -4% 7%

2 Inventory Absorption Trends

# of Trend Months 10 Q3 220 52 160 95 75 72 90

# of Months 11 Q3 225 167 153 117 63 158

Balanced Market Prices Sellers Market Prices

Inventory Gauge 20.7 Months of Inventory

$75 to $150K! 33%! $0 to $75K! 10%!

$450K! 3%! $150 to $200K! 24%!

$350 to $400K! 2%! $300 to $350K! 4%! $250 to $300K! 8%!

$200 to $250K! 13%!

Haywood County Market Review

Average List to Sell Ratio Average Units Sold/Month

Average Sales Price

2010 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 Year End $196,218 $200,796 $186,040

10.88% 0.53% 4.76%

2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 -7.3%

Inventory Absorption Trends

Inventory Gauge 30.3 Months of Inventory

# of Months 10 Q3 290 60 80 160 70 200

# of Months 11 Q3 131 59 60 99 126

Indicates inability to calculate trend due to lack of sales activity

$700 to $800K! 1.4%!

$900 to $1M! 0.7%! $75 to $150K! 29.3%!

$600 to $700K! 0.7%! $500 to $550K! 1.4%! $450 to

$350 to $400K! 2.7%!

$300 to $350K! 6.8%!

$150 to $200K! 22.4%!

$250 to $300K! 8.2%!

$200 to $250K! 10.2%!

Rutherford County Market Review

2010Q3 v. 2011Q3 46.29% -3.78% -22.38%

Beverly-Hanks & Associates Third Quarter Market Report 2011

Beverly-Hanks & Associates Third Quarter Market Report 2011