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Calibration

Good morning!

INTRODUCTION
Chad Weinman

INTRODUCTION
Chad Weinman

CALIBRATION
What, Why, How

WHAT?
a method for gauging and improving an individuals ability to make better estimates

WHY?
Heres a question to get us started: Who among us always gets complete & perfect quantitative data for their FAIR analyzes?

N obo dcomplete Who among us always gets y & perfect do quantitative data for their es! FAIR analyzes?
Heres a question to get this started:
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WHY?

FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision

FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision

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FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision

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FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision

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FAIR CONCEPTS
Probability vs. Possibility Objective vs. Subjective Accuracy vs. Precision

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NOT ACCURATE

t N o d. oo G

NOR PRECISE
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ACCURATE
ne fi s. m thi I h it w

NOT PRECISE
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ACCURATE
is is ! h d T oo G

& PRECISE
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NOT ACCURATE

t ! n s Do t h i e ik l

PRECISE
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OKAY:
We now are all comfortable again with the difference between accuracy and precision. But how and where does this directly relate in our fair modeling?

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LESSON:
As FAIR practitioners when we look to estimates and ranges, we should aim for accuracy with hint of precision. This is what decision-makers prefer. Its even what my wife prefers :)

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FAIR
Measuring Risk (quantitative)

Loves Uncertainty

Utilizes Estimations & Ranges to Create Distributions

Min, M/L, Max values + Condence


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FAIR
Measuring Risk (quantitative)

IS Loves Uncertainty E R E RE ON H H E TI W RA IB TS Utilizes Estimations & Ranges to Create Distributions AL FI C

Min, M/L, Max values + Condence


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Example: Threat Event Frequency

A DISTRIBUTION
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Example: Threat Event Frequency

Form the ends of our distribution

A DISTRIBUTION
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Example: Threat Event Frequency

Shape the curve

A DISTRIBUTION
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Example: Threat Event Frequency

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THE DISTRIBUTION
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Example: Threat Event Frequency

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MONTE CARLO
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Example: Threat Event Frequency

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MONTE CARLO
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Example: Threat Event Frequency

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NOW WHAT IF WERE NOT CALIBRATED?


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Example: Threat Event Frequency

!
0 6 12 18 24 30

HOLD UP - WHATS THAT?


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Example: Threat Event Frequency

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0 6 12 18 24 30

REAL TEF FOR CURRENT YEAR


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Example: Threat Event Frequency

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0 6 12 18 24 30

WHAT IF WERE CALIBRATED?


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Example: Threat Event Frequency

!
0 6 12 18 24 30

WHAT IF WERE CALIBRATED?


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Example: Threat Event Frequency

!
0 6 12 18 24 30

WHAT IF WERE CALIBRATED?


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FOOD 4 THOUGHT
Research in Decision Physiology starting in 70-80s have extensively shown few people are naturally calibrated. But theres hope!

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HOW
Calibration believe it or not is improved by practice. We learn whether we are by nature over-condent or under-condent.

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ONE MORE THING:


* If your range is larger than someone elses, youre not wrong. * You are correct if you are 90% condent in each side of your range.

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LETS GET STARTED...

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ONE

WHAT IS THE AVG. WINGSPAN OF 747?

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TWO IN 1938 A BRITISH STEAM LOCOMOTIVE SET A NEW SPEED RECORD BY GOING HOW FAST? (IN MPH)
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THREE WHAT YEAR WAS FIRST SEASON IN THE MAJOR LEAGUE FOR THE CLEVELAND INDIANS?
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FOUR

HOW MANY INCHES LONG IS A US $20 BILL?

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FIVE ON AVERAGE, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT EFFORTS IS SPENT ON DESIGN?
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SIX

HOW DEEP BENEATH THE SEA WAS THE TITANIC FOUND?


(IN MILES)

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SEVEN WHAT IS THE AVG. TEMPERATURE IN OF THE ABYSSAL ZONE

(WHERE OCEANS ARE > 6,500 FEET DEEP)

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EIGHT

HOW MANY YEARS WAS NELSON MANDELA IN PRISON?

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NINE

HOW OLD WAS THE YOUNGEST PERSON TO FLY INTO SPACE?

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TEN FINAL QUESTION WHAT IS THE ALTITUDE OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN THAT I HAVE SUMMITED?
(IN FEET)

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HOW DID WE DO?

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?
Thank you! Chad Weinman chad@redpointrisk.com LinkedIn
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