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April 4, 2012
V and MA Preview
CONSUMER & BUSINESS SERVICES/BUSINESS SERVICES
In consideration of strong quarterly volume trends we are raising our estimates for V and MA. We believe fundamentals are benefiting from solid US retail sales trends and continued x-border volume strength. We raise our FY12/FY13 estimates for both companies, and expect both to affirm their respective forward outlooks. Given our favorable fundamental view as well as a waning of extraneous valuation overhangs (Durbin, Merchant Litigation) we are raising our PTs for V to $140 (from $126) and for MA to $475 (from $400). Shares remain attractive, in our view, although we expect share appreciation to largely track earnings growth from here with limited further multiple expansion.
KEY POINTS
We anticipate solid quarters for both V (2Q:FY12) and MA (1Q:FY12) as volume trends (cross-border volume, purchase volume, processed transactions) remain healthy. We expect V to affirm its FY12 outlook for low double-digit revenue growth and high-teens EPS growth, despite Durbin-related headwinds in 2H:FY12. Similarly, we anticipate MA will affirm its two-year ('12-'13) average revenue and EPS growth targets of 12-14% and 20%, respectively. Reflecting stronger volume trends, we raise our FY12E EPS for V to $6.08 from $6.05 (vs. Street of $5.97) and our FY13E EPS $0.10 to $7.09 (17% growth). For MA, we raise our FY12E EPS to $22.01 from $21.75 (vs. Street's $22.00) and our FY13E EPS to $25.86 (from $25.50). V's FY12 guidance calls for low double-digit revenue growth and high-teens EPS growth, while MA anticipates 20% constant currency EPS CAGR over the next two years. V now trades at a ~4% discount to MA. As V bears the brunt of the Durbin impact in coming quarters, we expect modestly faster revenue growth for MA (despite very difficult comps) over the next 12 months. Also, with improved clarity regarding the merchant case, MA's potential exposure appears very manageable (likely was most significant risk factor). Accordingly, we wouldn't preclude MA sustaining its modest valuation premium near term. Longer term, after V anniversaries Durbin and growth accelerates, we anticipate V could regain its valuation premium. V and MA outperformed the market during 1Q:CY12, up 16% and 13%, respectively (vs. 12% for the S&P500). After their strong recent performance, V and MA trade at ~16x and ~16.5x CY13E EPS, respectively, which we think is reasonable considering likely mid- to high-teens EPS growth over intermediate term. Given our favorable fundamental view as well as a waning of extraneous valuation overhangs, we maintain Outperform ratings and raise our PTs for V to $140 from $126 and for MA to $475 from $400.
Brent.Navon@opco.com
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. See "Important Disclosures and Certifications" section at the end of this report for important disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the end of this report, where applicable.
Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229
Current NC NC
Source: Company reports and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Note: All figures in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted NC, No Change. O, Outperform; P, Perform; U, Underperform
Source: Company reports, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Reflecting the stronger than anticipated intra-quarter volume trends, we raise our 1QFY12 EPS estimate for MA $0.07 to $5.24. We now anticipate 1Q:FY12 purchase volume growth of 14.8% Y/Y to $626B (domestic +14% Y/Y to ~$237B, international +15% Y/Y to $389B) and 70bp of Y/Y margin compression to 55%. For FY12, we raise our EPS estimate to $22.01 (up ~18% Y/Y) from $21.75 (vs. Street's $22.00) driven by ~12% revenue growth (~12% volume growth) and 60bp of margin expansion to 52.5%. Also, we raise our FY13 EPS estimate to $25.86 (17.5% Y/Y) driven by 11% revenue growth to $8.34B and 50bps of margin expansion to 53.0%. We anticipate MA will affirm its 2-year ('12-'13) compounded constant currency EPS growth objective of 20% when it reports results in May. Visa: V's volume trends thru February are also encouraging (see Exhibit 2 below). On a normalized (adjusted for extra day) basis, cross-border volume grew 16% Y/Y in February (20% reported growth including extra day), US payments volume grew 6% Y/Y (11% Credit, 4% Debit, and 10% reported growth), and Processed Transactions grew 8% Y/Y (11% reported) globally. V's intra-quarter trends imply healthy results for the quarter; although less upside compared to our prior estimates relative to MasterCard. Exhibit 2: V Volume Trends
Visa Quarterly Trends Trends by Quarter End 12/10 Processed Transactions US Purchase Volume Credit (~24% of volume) Debit (~29% of volume) Constant FX Cross-border Volume 15% 13% 7% 16% 15% 3/11 13% 12% 9% 13% 13% 6/11 11% 11% 10% 11% 14% 9/11 9% 9% 10% 8% 15% 12/11 8% 7% 10% 5% 13% 9% 7% 10% 4% 15% By Month Same Day Jan '12 Feb '12 Feb '12 11% 10% 15% 7% 20% 8% 6% 11% 4% 16% 17% Opco Est. 3/12E 9% 8%
Reflecting V's volume trends through February, we raise our 2Q:FY12 EPS estimate to $1.54 from $1.50 (vs. Street's $1.49), which implies 25% Y/Y EPS growth. We also raise our FY12 EPS estimate to $6.08 (up 22%), from $6.05, driven by payments volume growth of 10% Y/Y to $4,020B (domestic up 7% Y/Y to $2.15B, international +13% Y/Y to $1.87B), 60 basis points of Y/Y margin expansion to 60%, and ~4% fewer shares outstanding. We raise our FY12 revenue assumption by approximately $75M to $10.2B (11% Y/Y growth) which reflects $58M higher cross border revenue, and ~$21M higher Data processing revenue. Recall FY12 guidance calls for low double-digit revenue growth and high-teens EPS growth. We also raise our FY13 EPS estimate $0.10 to $7.09, which reflects ~10.6% revenue growth to $11.29B and 100bps of margin expansion to 61%.
Revenue EPS
FY12E OpCo Y/Y Chg Street Y/Y Chg $ 7,511 11.9% $ 7,546 12.4% $ 22.01 17.7% $ 22.00 17.6%
FY13E OpCo Y/Y Chg Street Y/Y Chg $ 8,343 11.1% $ 8,469 12.2% $ 25.86 17.5% $ 25.81 17.3%
Source: FactSet, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.; note Y/Y changes reflect OPCO vs. OPCO estimates Exhibit 4: Visa Estimates (vs. Street)
FY12E OpCo Y/Y Chg Street Y/Y Chg $ 10,210 11.1% $ 10,175 11.2% $ 6.08 21.8% $ 5.97 21.3% FY13E OpCo Y/Y Chg Street Y/Y Chg $ 11,289 10.6% $ 11,331 11.4% $ 7.09 16.6% $ 7.00 17.3%
Revenue EPS
Source: FactSet, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.; note Y/Y changes reflect OPCO vs. OPCO estimates Macro Indicators Remain Solid, Especially in the US: Below we discuss some of the primary variables that we believe influence purchase volumes. US Retail Sales Solid Thru February: Despite recent market volatility/macro concerns, US retail sales in the first two months of 1Q12 were surprisingly strong and accelerated each month from a Y/Y perspective (following 4 months of deceleration Y/Y). Unadjusted US retail sales (ex-auto) closely track US purchase volume trends as reported by Visa/MasterCard (see Exhibit 5). Thus far, the metric is up 8.0% Y/Y in 1Q:CY12 (vs. 6.5% in 1Q:CY11, 8.0% in 2Q:CY11, 8.1% in 3Q:CY11, and 6.4% in 4Q:CY11) and compares to our revised US purchase volume estimates of 8% and 14% for Visa and MasterCard, respectively. Y/Y retail sales accelerated throughout the quarter as unadjusted retail sales rose 6.0% in January and 10.0% in February (following 6.9% Y/Y in October, 6.7% Y/Y in November, and 5.8% Y/Y in December). Recall ~52% of Visa's and ~36% of MasterCard's purchase volume is generated in the US. We note that elevated gas prices (discussed later in the report) have buoyed retail sales in recent quarters: however, Y/Y comparisons are becoming increasingly difficult. Exhibit 5: Y/Y Change V/MA US Purchase Volume vs. US Retail Sales (ex-Auto)
Y/Y Change US Retail Sales (ex-Auto) vs. Visa/MasterCard US Purchase Volume
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Visa US Purchase Volume MasterCard US Purchase Volume Unadjusted US Retail Sales and Food (ex-Auto)
Source: US Census Bureau, Company reports, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Cross-border/International Travel: After moderating in Oct/Nov, Y/Y airline traffic growth was solid to start the year, growing 5.5% in January (vs. 6.0% in 1Q:CY11, 10.1% in 2Q:CY11, 6.1% in 3Q:CY11, and 5.5% in 4Q:CY11), according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This improvement in January may reflect gradual improvement in the macro environment and appears consistent with V/ MA's solid intra-quarter cross border volume trends. We suspect gradual improvement in the macro
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12
environment could serve as a tailwind for V/MA's cross-border revenue, which represents ~25% of Visa/MasterCard's gross revenue and likely represents the highest revenue/margin transaction for each company. Historically, global airline traffic has correlated with cross-border volume growth as outlined in Exhibit 6. For Visa, we expect international transaction revenue to grow ~22% Y/Y to $760M on 16.5% volume growth (~4.5pt of improved yield Y/Y) in 2Q:FY12 (end March). We estimate MasterCard's gross crossborder revenue to grow ~12% to $516M in 1Q:CY12 on 17.5% Y/Y constant currency volume growth, and a likely conservative 5% Y/Y yield decline. Exhibit 6: Global International Airline Traffic Y/Y Change vs. Est. Constant Currency Cross-border Volume Growth
IATA International Traffic and Cross Border Volume 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% (5%) (10%) (15%)
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09
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11
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08
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/0
/1
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/1
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IATA International Traffic Visa Cross-border est. Volume MasterCard Cross-border est. Volume
Source: ATA, Company reports, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Gas Prices: While gasoline prices are down from the May 2011 highs, gas prices have risen the past nine weeks and should provide a very modest tailwind for Visa and MasterCard's purchase volume growth in 1Q:CY12. In aggregate, we estimate US gas purchases account for ~8% and ~6% of US purchase volume for Visa and MasterCard, respectively. As we outline in Exhibit 7, average gas prices to date in the March quarter are up 8% Y/Y to ~$3.50 per gallon (vs. +35% Y/Y to $3.73 per gallon in 2Q:CY11, +34% Y/Y to $3.59 in 3Q:CY11, and +17% to $3.32 in 4Q:CY11), according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Similarly, retail sales at US gas stations grew 17.7% Y/Y in 2011 (up 11% YTD thru February), according to the US Census Bureau. As we started to see this quarter, tougher comparisons in CY12 will likely diminish purchase volume tailwinds. We estimate rising gas prices in 1Q:CY12 provided a nominal purchase volume growth tailwind for Visa and MasterCard of ~30bps and ~20bps, respectively (~60bps and ~45bps tailwind to US purchase volume growth, respectively) during the quarter.
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$1.87
Y/Y Change
Source: US Department of Energy, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. International Growth: We expect international growth to continue to outpace US growth given significantly lower levels of card usage overseas. That said, intra-quarter trends reflect stronger US purchase volumes than we originally anticipated. MasterCard has greater relative exposure to international markets; we estimate that international purchase volume will comprise ~62% and ~46% of MasterCard and Visa's total purchase volume, respectively, during FY12. For perspective, Europe represents approximately 44% of MA's International volume, or ~27% of total purchase volume, which could represent a modest risk during CY12. For Visa, we anticipate 14% Y/Y international purchase volume growth to $438B (vs. 8% domestic growth to $513B) in the March quarter; for FY12, we estimate international volume growth of 12.6% Y/Y to $1.87T (vs. 7% Y/Y domestic growth to $2.1T). For FY13, we estimate international purchase volume growth of 13% and domestic purchase volume growth acceleration to 8% as the company anniversaries Durbin-related headwinds from FY12. As Visa does not own/consolidate Visa Europe, the company has very limited core Europe exposure. Such limited exposure could provide an advantage (relative to MA) if Europe deteriorates further and experiences sluggish volume trends (that said, Europe volumes have held up well in recent quarters for MA). We note that Visa's Central Europe/Middle East Africa (CEMA) volume represents <4% of V's total purchase volume. For MasterCard, we anticipate 15.4% Y/Y international purchase volume growth to $389B (vs. 13.9% growth in domestic purchase volume to $237B) in the March quarter. For CY12, we estimate international purchase volume growth of 12.4% Y/Y to $1.72T (vs. 11.4% domestic growth to $1.004T). The moderating volume growth in FY12 largely reflects MA's European exposure (~27% of total purchase volume). We project European volume growth deceleration to 6% (vs. 17% in CY11) in CY12 which considers the recent uncertainty in Europe as well as the Y/Y weakness in the euro. As shown in Exhibit 8 below, Eurozone retail sales continue to contract modestly. We note that MA's European volume held up well in 4Q (~13% C/C volume growth) despite apparent macro headwinds and decelerating volume growth from AXP (4% CC growth in EMEA region). We cannot preclude elevated volatility in the region during CY12. Accordingly, we are mindful of potential headwinds throughout CY12, but are also cognizant of MA's strong European performance in the last few quarters (~13% local currency volume growth during CY11) despite a backdrop of contracting retail sales. Also, we estimate the average 1Q euro rate implies euro depreciation of 4.3% Y/Y for the quarter, and at current spot rates euro depreciation would imply ~7% headwind in 2Q:CY12.
Y/Y Change
$2.50
1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% EU 17 Quarterly Retail Average EU27 Quarterly Retail Average 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q 11 1Q:12
Source: Eurostat and company reports (1Q:12 Estimates Updated through February)
Purchase Volume by Region ($Bs) Asia Pacific $ 797 $ 239 $ 230 $ 246 $ 271 $ 986 $ 275 $ 261 $ 282 $ 298 $ 1,116 $ 1,253 Asia Pacific Y/Y (Nominal) 21.5% 21.9% 23.7% 15.1% 13.3% 12.2% 18.9% 24.9% 28.4% 13.8% 14.5% 10.1% Asia Pacific Y/Y (Constant Currency) 15.0% 11.5% 13.7% 17.5% Asia Pacific Q/Q 13.3% -4.0% 7.2% 10.2% 1.5% -5.0% 7.9% 5.9% Canada Canada Y/Y (Nominal) Canada Y/Y (Constant Currency) Canada Q/Q CEMEA CEMEA Y/Y (Nominal) CEMEA Y/Y (Constant Currency) CEMEA Q/Q LAC LAC Y/Y (Nominal) LAC Y/Y (Constant Currency) LAC Q/Q International Int'l Y/Y (Nominal) Int'l Q/Q US US Y/Y US Q/Q Total Visa Inc. $ Payments Volume Y/Y Chg (Nominal) 23.7% $ 190 $ 53 $ 48 $ 55 $ 55 $ 211 $ 57 $ 51 $ 57 $ 59 $ 225 $ 244 22.6% 12.8% 11.1% 6.4% 8.6% 9.1% 10.0% 12.2% 7.5% 6.4% 4.1% 7.7%
6.8% 8.2% 7.0% -9.4% 8.4% 14.6% 7.7% 0.0% 3.6% -10.4% 12.1% 3.5%
98 $ 30 $ 30 $ 35 $ 37 $ 132 $ 39 $ 38 $ 41 $ 44 $ 162 $ 197 25.6% 30.4% 34.7% 30.0% 22.6% 22.0% 30.4% 40.0% 37.0% 27.5% 17.0% 18.0%
32.2% 11.1% 31.2% 0.0% 36.7% 16.7% 36.1% 5.7% 5.4% -1.9% 7.1% 6.6%
$ 253 $ 82 $ 77 $ 86 $ 90 $ 335 $ 94 $ 88 $ 93 $ 97 $ 372 $ 424 31.1% 28.1% 32.5% 14.6% 10.8% 14.0% 32.8% 39.2% 30.4% 13.8% 7.2% 8.3%
26.7% 18.8% 22.4% 13.5% 26.1% -6.1% 20.9% -4.8% 28.7% 12.1% 26.4% 9.8% 23.8% 4.3% 27.2% 7.3% 4.4% -6.8% 13.9% -5.8% 5.6% 11.9% 7.9% 5.3% 10.1% 5.6%
$ 1,338 $ 404 $ 385 $ 422 $ 453 $ 1,664 $ 465 $ 438 $ 472 $ 499 $ 1,874 $ 2,118 24.3%
15.1% 2.6%
12.6%
13.0%
$ 1,807 $ 493 $ 477 $ 518 $ 516 $ 2,004 $ 529 $ 513 $ 552 $ 551 $ 2,146 $ 2,315 11.8% 12.6% 10.9% 7.1% 7.9% 11.6% 10.5% 9.1% 7.3% 7.7% 6.5% 6.8%
4.2% -3.3% 8.8% -0.5% 2.5% -3.0% 7.6% -0.1%
$ 3,145 $ 897 $ 861 $ 941 $ 969 $ 3,668 $ 994 $ 951 $ 1,024 $ 1,050 $ 4,020 $ 4,432 16.5% 16.8% 16.6% 10.8% 9.6% 10.3% 15.6% 17.1% 16.9% 10.5% 8.9% 8.4%
Source: company reports and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. estimates Exhibit 10: MasterCard Purchase Volume Estimates
FY1 0 1 Q:1 1 2 Q:1 1 3 Q:1 1 4 Q:1 1 FY1 1 1 Q:1 2 E 2 Q:1 2 E 3 Q:1 2 E 4 Q:1 2 E FY1 2 E FY1 3 E Purchase Volume by Region (in billions) APMEA $ 411 $ 120 $ 132 $ 144 $ 152 $ 548 $ 150 $ 163 $ 172 $ 181 $ 666 $ 781 APMEA Y/Y (nominal) 25.9% 29.9% 40.4% 38.5% 25.6% 33.2% 25.2% 23.2% 19.5% 19.4% 21.6% 17.3% APMEA Y/Y (local) 21.6% 27.2% 27.2% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% APMEA Q/Q -1.2% 10.5% 9.1% 5.6% -1.6% 8.7% 5.9% 5.4% Canada Canada Y/Y (nominal) Canada Y/Y (local) Canada Q/Q Europe Europe Y/Y (nominal) Europe Y/Y (local) Europe Q/Q Latin America Latin America Y/Y (nominal) Latin America Y/Y (local) Latin America Q/Q International Int'l Y/Y (nominal) Int'l Q/Q US US Y/Y US Q/Q $ 95 $ 24 $ 28 $ 28 $ 29 $ 109 $ 26 $ 29 $ 30 $ 31 $ 115 $ 122 14.5% 14.3% 16.7% 16.7% 11.5% 14.7% 6.6% 3.2% 6.0% 6.0% 5.4% 6.0% 7.1% 10.3% 10.7% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -7.7% 16.7% 0.0% 3.6% -11.8% 13.0% 2.6% 3.6% 604 $ 158 $ 181 $ 185 $ 184 $ 708 $ 171 $ 186 $ 191 $ 200 $ 748 $ 800 11.8% 13.3% 26.6% 20.5% 9.5% 17.2% 8.7% 2.8% 3.2% 8.5% 5.7% 7.0% 12.7% 14.1% 13.7% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6.3% 14.9% 2.2% -0.5% -7.0% 8.7% 2.6% 4.6% 126 $ 36 $ 40 $ 43 $ 45 $ 164 $ 42 $ 46 $ 48 $ 53 $ 189 $ 218 28.6% 33.3% 37.9% 34.4% 18.4% 30.2% 18.0% 15.4% 11.1% 17.3% 15.3% 15.3% 25.0% 28.0% 29.1% 24.8% -5.3% 11.1% 7.5% 4.7% -5.6% 8.7% 3.5% 10.5%
$ 1,236 $ 337 $ 381 $ 400 $ 410 $ 1,528 $ 389 $ 424 $ 440 $ 465 $ 1,718 $ 1,921 17.9% 20.8% 31.4% 27.6% 16.1% 23.7% 15.4% 11.2% 10.1% 13.3% 12.4% 11.8% -4.5% 13.1% 5.0% 2.5% -5.2% 9.0% 4.0% 5.5% 63.1% $ 813 $ 208 $ 227 $ 227 $ 239 $ 901 $ 237 $ 251 $ 252 $ 264 $ 1,004 $ 1,079 1.0% 7.2% 11.3% 13.2% 11.7% 10.9% 13.9% 10.7% 11.0% 10.3% 11.4% 7.5% -2.8% 9.1% 0.0% 5.3% -0.9% 6.1% 0.3% 4.6%
$ 2,048 $ 545 $ 608 $ 627 $ 649 $ 2,429 $ 626 $ 675 $ 693 $ 728 $ 2,721 $ 3,000 10.6% 15.2% 23.1% 22.0% 14.5% 18.6% 14.8% 11.0% 10.5% 12.2% 12.0% 10.2%
Valuation
Finalization of the US debit interchange/routing rules and clarity regarding potential Merchant litigation exposure removed significant overhangs on the shares and contributed to strong stock price performance for both V and MA during 2H:CY11 and into 1Q:CY12, in our view. During 1Q:CY12, V and MA appreciated 16% and ~13% respectively (vs. the S&P 500's ~12%). That said, the shares remain attractive, in our view, although we expect share appreciation to largely track earnings growth from here with limited further multiple expansion. Visa trades at ~19x (or 16.3x our CY13 EPS estimate) our revised CY12 EPS estimate of $6.34this compares to V's long-term average (NTM estimates) of ~20x. Similarly, MA trades at ~19.5x (or 16.7x our CY13 EPS estimate) our revised CY12 EPS estimate of $22.01 (vs. the long-term average of ~17.4x). V now trades at a ~4% discount to MA, well below the ~14% historical average premium Visa has enjoyed since its IPO in March 2008. We attribute Visa's historical premium (see Exhibit 11 below) to its stronger global market share (unchanged), higher operating margins (unchanged), more conservative balance sheet (unchanged), greater exposure to the faster growing emerging markets (unchanged) and greater exposure to the faster growing US debit market (headwind, i.e., Durbin). Also, V shareholders are not exposed to potential liability from the merchant litigation case whereas MA is liable for 12% of a global settlement. We expect V to bear the brunt of the Durbin impact over coming quarters (beginning in 2Q:CY12), and accordingly, revenue growth should decelerate toward high-single- to low-double-digits. Similarly, as MA laps prior-year conversion wins, and generally strong 2011 volume trends, we expect top line growth deceleration toward the low teens. In short, we expect similar revenue growth from each over the next four quarters (we expect modestly faster revenue growth for MA over next twelve months). Also with improved clarity regarding the merchant case, MA's potential exposure seems very manageable; perhaps the most notable factor impacting valuation discussion since beginning of year. Accordingly, we wouldn't preclude MA sustaining its modest valuation premium to V over the near term. That said, over the longer term, after V anniversaries Durbin headwinds and begins to see accelerating growth, we anticipate that V could regain its premium valuation. We continue to believe long-term growth prospects for both V and MA remain very favorable. Given Visa and MasterCard's strong global brand, high profitability, strong pricing power and favorable long-term secular tailwinds, we believe their shares deserve sizable valuation premiums to the market. In our view, MasterCard and Visa can deliver high-teens to 20% annual EPS growth over the intermediate term and generate very strong FCF. Our $140 PT for V is based on ~19x our revised CY13 EPS estimate, and our $475 PT for MA is based on ~18.5x our revised CY13 estimate.
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Visa P/E (L-Axis) MasterCard P/E (L-Axis) Visa Premium vs. MasterCard (R-Axis)
4/2/2012
Revenue Domestic assessments Cross-border volume fees Transaction processing fees Other revenues Gross Revenue Rebates and incentives Total Net Revenue Operating Expenses Personnel Professional fees Telecommunications Data processing Travel and entertainment Other Total G&A Advertising and marketing Depreciation & amortization Total Operating Expenses Operating income (loss) Other Income (Expense) Interest expense Investment income Other Total other income Pre Tax Income Income tax expense/(benefit) Net income allocated to unvested units Net income Proforma EPS Diluted shares EBITDA Revenue Y/Y Growth: Domestic assessments Cross-border volume fees Transaction processing fees Other revenues Gross Revenue Rebates and incentives Total Net Revenue Y/Y Growth: Personnel Total G&A expenses Advertising and marketing Total Operating Expenses EBITDA Operating income Net income Proforma EPS Margin Analysis % of Revenues: Personnel Advertising and marketing Total operating expense Rebates/Incentives (% of gross revs) EBITDA margin Operating margin Tax rate Net margin
Glenn Greene (312) 360-5942
2,641 1,927 2,198 791 7,558 (2,019) 5,539 1,219 204 57 90 58 229 1,857 782 148 2,787 2,752 (52) 57 5 2,757 910 3 1,845 $ 14.05 131.3 2,900 FY10 10.9% 27.7% 7.7% 0.9% 12.5% 24.8% 8.6%
11
95 $ 14.5%
109 $ 14.7%
115 $ 5.4%
122 6.0%
604 $ 11.8%
708 $ 17.2%
748 $ 5.7%
800 7.0%
126 $ 28.6%
164 $ 30.2%
189 $ 15.3%
218 15.3%
0.129% 0.133% 0.133% 0.134% 0.134% 0.134% 0.136% 0.136% 0.136% 0.136% 0.136% 0.136% 0.136% 0.137% 0.137% 0.136% $ 2,641 $ 723 $ 809 $ 843 $ 871 $ 3,245 $ 848 $ 915 $ 939 $ 987 $ 3,689 $ 939 $ 1,012 $ 1,042 $ 1,099 $ 4,092
Processed transactions (MM) 23,052 5,971 6,601 7,016 7,677 27,265 7,553 8,119 8,489 8,598 32,760 8,460 9,094 9,508 9,544 36,605 Y/Y Change 2.8% 11.1% 17.4% 20.5% 23.2% 18.3% 26.5% 23.0% 21.0% 12.0% 20.2% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.0% 11.7% Implied revenue per transaction $ 0.0954 $ 0.0988 $ 0.0954 $ 0.0988 $ 0.0888 $ 0.0952 $ 0.0892 $ 0.0861 $ 0.0892 $ 0.0891 $ 0.0884 $ 0.0895 $ 0.0864 $ 0.0895 $ 0.0894 $ 0.0887 Transaction processing fee revenue (MM) $ 2,198 $ 590 $ 630 $ 693 $ 682 $ 2,595 $ 674 $ 699 $ 758 $ 766 $ 2,897 $ 757 $ 785 $ 851 $ 853 $ 3,246 Total Revenue / Total Volume 0.270% 0.275% 0.274% 0.290% 0.266% 0.276% 0.277% 0.275% 0.286% 0.266% 0.276% 0.277% 0.278% 0.287% 0.270% 0.278%
12
FY10 Service revenues Data processing revenues International transaction revenues Other revenues Gross Revenue Volume and Support Incentives Total Operating Revenue Operating Expenses Personnel Network, ESP and communications Advertising, marketing & promotion Professional and consulting fees Depreciation & amortization Administrative and other Total Operating Expenses Operating income Other Income (Expense) Interest expense Investment income Total other income Income (loss) before income taxes Income tax expense/(benefit) Income (loss) before minority interest Minority interest Net income Proforma EPS Diluted shares EBITDA Revenue Y/Y Growth: Service revenues Data processing revenues International transaction revenues Other revenues Volume and Support Incentives Total Operating Revenue Y/Y Growth: Personnel Advertising, marketing & promotion Total Operating Expenses EBITDA Operating income Pretax income Net income Proforma EPS Margin Analysis % of Revenues: Volume & Support Incentives (% of gross rev) Personnel Advertising, marketing promotion Total operating expense EBITDA margin Operating margin Tax rate Net margin $ 3,497 3,125 2,290 713 9,625 (1,560) 8,065 1,222 425 964 286 265 314 3,476 4,589 (72) 48 (25) 4,564 1,674 2,890 (4) 2,887 3.91 739 4,854
12/10 1Q:FY11 1,008 844 630 161 2,643 (405) 2,238 357 80 197 61 67 110 872 1,366 4 12 16 1,382 498 884 884 $ 1.23 719 1,433
3/11 2Q:FY11 1,093 823 624 156 2,696 (451) 2,245 351 80 183 77 70 101 862 1,383 (12) 6 (6) 1,377 497 880 1 881 $ 1.23 714 1,453
6/11 3Q:FY11 1,055 886 662 167 2,770 (448) 2,322 363 91 251 84 74 114 977 1,345 (11) 88 77 1,422 539 883 1 884 $ 1.26 704 1,419
9/11 4Q:FY11 1,105 925 758 171 2,959 (576) 2,383 388 106 239 115 77 96 1,021 1,362 (13) 5 (8) 1,354 476 878 2 880 $ 1.27 692 1,439 $
FY11 4,261 3,478 2,674 655 11,068 (1,880) 9,188 1,459 357 870 337 288 421 3,732 5,456 (32) 112 79 5,536 2,010 3,526 4 3,530 4.99 707 5,744
12/11 3/12E 6/12E 9/12E 1Q:FY12 2Q:FY12E 3Q:FY12E 4Q:FY12E 1,151 951 748 178 3,028 (481) 2,547 389 98 190 70 80 102 929 1,618 (10) 9 (1) 1,617 590 1,027 2 1,029 $ 1.49 690 1,698 $ 1,181 930 760 168 3,038 (547) 2,491 394 97 232 87 80 105 994 1,497 (6) 18 12 1,509 472 1,037 2 1,039 1.54 675 1,577 $ 1,130 996 781 180 3,086 (562) 2,524 399 98 295 88 81 106 1,068 1,456 (3) 18 14 1,471 485 986 2 988 1.47 672 1,537 $ 1,217 1,020 857 184 3,277 (629) 2,648 416 101 286 97 82 111 1,092 1,556 (1) 18 17 1,572 518 1,054 2 1,056 1.58 669 1,638
FY12E 4,678 3,897 3,145 709 12,429 (2,219) 10,210 74 1,597 394 1,003 342 323 424 4,083 6,127 (20) 62 42 6,169 2,065 4,104 8 4,112 $ 6.08 676 6,450
12/12E Consumer Discretionary / CONSUMER & BUSINESS SERVICES 3/13E 6/13E 9/13E 1Q:FY13E 2Q:FY13E 3Q:FY13E 4Q:FY13E FY13E 1,247 1,056 846 190 3,340 (544) 2,796 424 106 252 97 87 109 1,074 1,721 18 18 1,739 578 1,161 2 1,163 $ 1.75 664 1,808 $ 1,295 1,033 848 179 3,356 (597) 2,758 428 105 254 94 85 110 1,075 1,683 19 19 1,702 566 1,136 2 1,138 1.73 659 1,768 $ 1,247 1,103 871 192 3,413 (614) 2,799 432 106 277 95 86 112 1,109 1,690 19 19 1,709 568 1,141 2 1,143 1.75 654 1,776 $ 1,342 1,120 956 197 3,615 (680) 2,936 445 112 285 100 88 117 1,146 1,789 19 19 1,808 601 1,207 2 1,209 1.86 649 1,877 $ 5,132 4,313 3,521 759 13,725 (2,436) 11,289 1,728 429 1,067 386 345 449 4,404 6,885 75 75 6,959 2,314 4,645 8 4,653 7.09 656 7,230 FY13E 9.7% 10.7% 12.0% 7.0% 9.8% 10.6%
FY10 1Q:FY11 2Q:FY11 3Q:FY11 4Q:FY11 10.2% 21.9% 23.5% 20.8% 21.2% 28.6% 10.4% 13.0% 11.9% 10.2% 19.5% 14.1% 14.5% 15.3% 22.5% 14.1% -15.3% -9.8% -8.7% 2.4% 26.4% 8.3% 21.2% 14.0% 36.8% 16.7% 14.2% 14.6% 14.4% 12.6%
FY11 1Q:FY12 2Q:FY12E 3Q:FY12E 4Q:FY12E 21.8% 14.2% 8.0% 7.1% 10.1% 11.3% 12.6% 13.0% 12.4% 10.2% 16.8% 18.7% 21.7% 17.9% 13.0% -8.1% 10.6% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 20.5% 18.8% 21.3% 25.4% 9.2% 13.9% 13.8% 11.0% 8.7% 11.1%
FY12E 1Q:FY13E 2Q:FY13E 3Q:FY13E 4Q:FY13E 9.8% 8.4% 9.7% 10.3% 10.3% 12.0% 11.1% 11.1% 10.8% 9.9% 17.6% 13.1% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 8.3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 18.0% 13.2% 9.2% 9.4% 8.0% 11.1% 9.8% 10.7% 10.9% 10.9%
13
797 $ 21.5%
239
21.9% 15.0% 13.3%
230
18.9% 11.5% -4.0%
246
24.9% 13.7% 7.2%
271
28.4% 17.5% 10.2%
986 $ 23.7%
275
15.1% 1.5%
261
13.8% -5.0%
282
14.5% 7.9%
298
10.1% 5.9%
$ 1,116 $ 13.3%
309
12.2% 3.4%
293
12.2% -5.0%
316
12.2% 7.9%
335
12.2% 5.9%
$ 1,253 12.2%
190 $ 22.6%
53
12.8% 6.8% 8.2%
48
9.1% 7.0% -9.4%
55
10.0% 8.4% 14.6%
55
12.2% 7.7% 0.0%
211 $ 11.1%
57
7.5% 3.6%
51
6.4% -10.4%
57
4.1% 12.1%
59
7.7% 3.5%
225 $ 6.4%
62
8.6% 4.6%
55
8.6% -10.4%
62
8.6% 12.1%
64
8.6% 3.5%
244 8.6%
98 $ 25.6%
30
30.4% 32.2% 11.1%
30
30.4% 31.2% 0.0%
35
40.0% 36.7% 16.7%
37
37.0% 36.1% 5.7%
132 $ 34.7%
39
30.0% 5.4%
38
27.5% -1.9%
41
17.0% 7.1%
44
18.0% 6.6%
162 $ 22.6%
48
22.0% 9.0%
47
22.0% -1.9%
50
22.0% 7.1%
53
22.0% 6.6%
197 22.0%
253 $ 31.1%
82
28.1% 26.7% 18.8%
77
32.8% 26.1% -6.1%
86
39.2% 28.7% 12.1%
90
30.4% 23.8% 4.3%
335 $ 32.5%
94
14.6% 4.4%
88
13.8% -6.8%
93
7.2% 5.6%
97
8.3% 5.3%
372 $ 10.8%
106
13.2% 9.3%
100
14.3% -6.0%
106
14.3% 5.6%
111
14.3% 5.3%
424 14.0%
$ 1,338 $ 23.7%
404
22.4% 13.5%
385
20.9% -4.8%
422
26.4% 9.8%
453
27.2% 7.3%
$ 1,664 $ 24.3%
465
15.1% 2.6%
438
13.9% -5.8%
472
11.9% 7.9%
499
10.1% 5.6%
$ 1,874 $ 12.6%
525
12.8% 5.2%
495
13.1% -5.6%
534
13.0% 7.8%
564
13.0% 5.6%
$ 2,118 13.0%
$ 1,807 $ 11.8%
493
12.6% 4.2%
477
11.6% -3.3%
518
10.5% 8.8%
516
9.1% -0.5%
$ 2,004 $ 10.9%
529
7.3% 2.5%
513
7.7% -3.0%
552
6.5% 7.6%
551
6.8% -0.1%
$ 2,146 $ 7.1%
566
7.0% 2.7%
554
8.0% -2.1%
596
8.0% 7.6%
598
8.5% 0.3%
$ 2,315 7.9%
$ 3,145 $ 16.5%
897
16.8% 14.5% 8.2%
861
15.6% 13.0% -4.0%
941
17.1% 13.5% 9.3%
969
16.9% 13.2% 3.0%
$ 3,668 $ 16.6%
994
10.8% 2.6%
951
10.5% -4.3%
$ 1,024
8.9% 7.7%
$ 1,050
8.4% 2.5%
$ 4,020 $ 1,091 $ 1,050 $ 1,130 $ 1,162 $ 4,432 9.6% 9.7% 10.3% 10.3% 10.7% 10.3%
3.9% -3.8% 7.7% 2.8%
45,412 12,580 12,040 13,038 13,262 50,920 13,600 13,124 14,114 14,290 55,127 14,688 14,305 15,384 15,576 59,952 13.9% 15.2% 13.1% 11.2% 9.4% 12.1% 8.1% 9.0% 8.3% 7.8% 8.3% 8.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.8% $ 0.0688 $ 0.0671 $ 0.0684 $ 0.0680 $ 0.0697 $ 0.0683 $ 0.0699 $ 0.0709 $ 0.0705 $ 0.0714 $ 0.0707 $ 0.0719 $ 0.0722 $ 0.0717 $ 0.0719 $ 0.0719 12.9% -4.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% -0.7% 4.2% 3.7% 3.8% 2.3% 3.5% 2.9% 1.9% 1.7% 0.8% 1.8% $ 3,125 $ 844 $ 823 $ 886 $ 925 $ 3,478 $ 951 $ 930 $ 996 $ 1,020 $ 3,897 $ 1,056 $ 1,033 $ 1,103 $ 1,120 $ 4,313 -16.2% 0.266% -15.3% 0.270% -16.7% 0.250% -16.2% 0.270% -19.5% 0.253% -17.0% 0.260% -15.9% 0.263% -18.0% 0.251% -18.2% 0.265% -19.2% 0.258% -17.9% 0.259% -16.3% 0.266% -17.8% 0.253% -18.0% 0.267% -18.8% 0.260% -17.7% 0.261%
^Purchase transaction volume is Oppenheimer estimate as the metric is reported on a one quarter lag Glenn Greene (312) 360-5942
Source: Company reports and Oppenheimer estimates. Numbers are proforma
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Potential Conflicts of Interest: Equity research analysts employed by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. are compensated from revenues generated by the firm including the Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Investment Banking Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation based upon revenues from specific investment banking transactions. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst and any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst covers. Additionally, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member of a company that such analyst covers. In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.
Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc:
Stock Prices as of April 4, 2012
MasterCard Incorporated (MA - NYSE, 430.94, OUTPERFORM) SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI - NYSE, 24.02, OUTPERFORM) Visa Inc. (V - NYSE, 118.98, OUTPERFORM)
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All price targets displayed in the chart above are for a 12- to- 18-month period. Prior to March 30, 2004, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. used 6-, 12-, 12- to 18-, and 12- to 24-month price targets and ranges. For more information about target price histories, please write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004, Attention: Equity Research Department, Business Manager.
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System as of January 14th, 2008: Outperform(O) - Stock expected to outperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months. Perform (P) - Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months. Underperform (U) - Stock expected to underperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months. Not Rated (NR) - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not maintain coverage of the stock or is restricted from doing so due to a potential conflict of interest. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System prior to January 14th, 2008:
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Buy - anticipates appreciation of 10% or more within the next 12 months, and/or a total return of 10% including dividend payments, and/or the ability of the shares to perform better than the leading stock market averages or stocks within its particular industry sector. Neutral - anticipates that the shares will trade at or near their current price and generally in line with the leading market averages due to a perceived absence of strong dynamics that would cause volatility either to the upside or downside, and/or will perform less well than higher rated companies within its peer group. Our readers should be aware that when a rating change occurs to Neutral from Buy, aggressive trading accounts might decide to liquidate their positions to employ the funds elsewhere. Sell - anticipates that the shares will depreciate 10% or more in price within the next 12 months, due to fundamental weakness perceived in the company or for valuation reasons, or are expected to perform significantly worse than equities within the peer group.
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos. Rating OUTPERFORM [O] PERFORM [P] UNDERPERFORM [U] Count 332 258 7 Percent 55.61 43.22 1.17 Count 147 91 3 Percent 44.28 35.27 42.86
Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. do not correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with FINRA rules, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has assigned buy ratings to securities rated Outperform, hold ratings to securities rated Perform, and sell ratings to securities rated Underperform.
Additional Information Available Please log on to http://www.opco.com or write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004, Attention: Equity Research Department, Business Manager.
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