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1AC - INHERENCY
CURRENT INCENTIVES ARE NOT ENOUGH. NUCLEAR ENERGY FACES MANY HURDLES
TO GET OFF THE GROUND.
CDP 2008 - CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS
FURTHER CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT NEEDED FOR RESURGANCE OF NUCLEAR POWER, US
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DOCUMENTS, HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY, 4-23
WASHINGTON D.C. - The Science and Technology Committee today held a hearing to explore the
potential for nuclear power to provide an increased proportion of electricity in the U.S. Witnesses at the
hearing highlighted the environmental and strategic benefits of nuclear energy and pointed to ways
Congress can support the development of new nuclear power plants. "Nuclear energy has all the properties
and benefits our world needs to successfully combat global climate change and meet our energy needs."
said Congressman Brian Bilbray (R-CA). "Nuclear energy is one of the cleanest energy sources known to
mankind, but the United States has not built a new nuclear power plant in nearly 20 years. If we are to
truly harness this great technology and solve our environmental problems, we must make a commitment to
nuclear research and development as well as the production of new nuclear facilities." Companies over the
last nine months have filed nine license applications with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to
build a total of fifteen new nuclear reactors in the U.S. No new reactors have been built in the U.S. in over
twenty years, largely due to high upfront costs and uncertainty, deterring investments in such
facilities. Further, Mr. Robert Van Namen, Senior Vice President of Uranium Enrichment at USEC, said
that our domestic companies are at a disadvantage. "Domestic fuel companies constructing new facilities
face stiff competition in a market dominated by foreign, vertically integrated Finns, many of which benefit
from the financial and political support of their .governments." He continued, "Now is the time for the U.S.
government to encourage the efforts of our domestic companies to rejuvenate the U.S. nuclear fuel cycle
so it can meet the demand of an expanded nuclear power generating capacity in the decades to
come." Many in the industry have expressed that strong federal incentives are necessary to build new
plants. Incentives authorized within the last three years include: loan guarantees for new nuclear plants;
cost-overrun support; a production tax credit; and a joint government-industry cost-shared program to help
utilities prepare for a new licensing process. However, it is expected that currently authorized loan
guarantees will only cover the first 4-6 new plants. Representing the largest owner and operator of
commercial nuclear power plants in the U.S., Marilyn C. Kray, Vice President of Exelon Nuclear and
President of NuStart Energy Development, highlighted the challenges a company faces when attempting to
build a new nuclear plant. These impediments include lack of confidence in a long-term solution for
used fuel disposal, and lack of public confidence in nuclear power.
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - WARMING ADVANTAGE
From studies of long-past climate, including the famous hockey-stick curve of the past millennium's temperature
(Science, 4 August 2006, p. 603), the IPCC concludes that the recent warming is quite out of the ordinary. 'Northern
Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very
likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years." the
report concludes, "and likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years contrarians
have conceded that greenhouse gases may be warming the planet, but not by much, they say. The climate system is not
sensitive enough to greenhouse gases to overheat the globe, they say. For the first time, the IPCC report directly counters
that argument. Several different lines of evidence point to a moderately strong climate
Sensitivity (Science, 21 April 2006, p. 351). The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 thickened the stratospheric haze
layer and cooled climate, providing a gauge of short-term climate sensitivity. Paleoclimatologists have determined how
hard the climate system was driven during long-past events such as the last ice age and how much climate changed then.
And models have converged on a narrower range of climate sensitivity. The IPCC concludes that both models and past
climate changes point to a fairly sensitive climate system. The Warming for 3 doubling Of CQ2 "JS
very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C," says the report, not the less than 0.5°C favored bv
some contrarians. A best estimate is about 3°C. with a iikeiy range of 2°c to 4.s°c. what next?
Looking ahead, the report projects a warming of about 0.4°C for the next 2 decades. That is about as rapid as the
warming of the past 15 years, but 50% faster than the warming of the past 50 years. By ttlG end Of thJS
century, global temperatures might rise anywhere between a substantial
1.7°C and a whOPPinq 4.0°C. depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted. In some model
projections, late-summer Arctic sea ice all but disappears late in this century. It is very likely that extremes of heat, heat
waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. Rain in lower latitudes will decrease,
leading to more drought.
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - WARMING ADVANTAGE
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 rose by a record amount over the past year. It is the third
successive year in which they have increased sharply. Scientists are at a loss to explain why the rapid rise
has taken place, but fear the trend could be the first sign of runaway global warming.
Runaway Global Warming promises to literally burn-up agricultural areas into dust worldwide by
2012, causing global famine, anarchy, diseases, and war on a global scale as military powers
including the U.S., Russia, and China, fight for control of the Earth's remaining resources.
Over 4.5 billion people could die from Global Warming related causes by 2012, as planet Earth
accelarates into a greed-driven horrific catastrophe.
10
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
TWO - STARVATION
The IPCC Working Group III Subgroup on Agriculture, Forestry and Other Systems (AFOS) report
concludes: The anticipated rise in global average temperature of about 2 to 3 oC over the next century
will most likely lead to severe impacts on agriculture and forestry such as: a shift of the climatic zones
by several hundred kilometres towards the poles, enlarging the arid zones in the tropical and subtropical
regions, and reducing the land available for agriculture, a rise in sea level of about 0.3 metres, inundating
valuable land in coastal areas, especially in tropical and subtropical zones, a gradual breakdown of many
ecosystems like forests in temperate and boreal regions, leading to additional CO2 emissions and thus to
further greenhouse warming, potentially increased effects from pests and weeds.
Marine and land food species may also be affected by the increasing levels of ultraviolet radiation reaching
the earth as a result of unavoidable ongoing depletion of stratospheric ozone. This could lead to a reduced
production of biomass and photosynthesis, thus again enhancing the CO2 content of the atmosphere.
The Group concludes that "it is likely to be enormously difficult task for mankind, not only to limit climate
change to a tolerable level, but also to simultaneously achieve sufficient food production for a still rising
WOrld p o p u l a t i o n . . . (K. Heinloth (Physikalisches Institutdes Universit t Bonn) & R P. Karimanzira, "Outcomes and policy recommendations from the IPCC/AFOS
working group on climate change response strategies and emission reductions", Climatic Change, v 27(1), p 139-146, May 1994)
Eminent US scientists. Henry Kendall and David Pimental. agree with the conclusions of the IPCC
workshop. In modelling food supply requirements for various population levels, they conclude that global
warming and ozone depletion may have catastrophic effects on global food production. While most
countries were food self-sufficient in the early 1960s, few remain so. The increasing reliance on fertilisers, pesticides and irrigation,
increasing spread of soil erosion, ground and surface water pollution, sal inisation, and rapid degradation of productive land has
contributed to significantly reduced food production. In Africa, per capita grain production has decreased by 22 percent since 1967.
Simultaneously, global population is projected to double in 40 years, necessitating a tripling of current food
production to maintain all peoples above the poverty line. Water is considered the major limiting factor, but
the problems associated with irrigation suggest that this is not the answer. Their study finds that while
global wanning may benefit some crops, it may also benefit pests, insects and weeds.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - WARMING ADVANTAGE
Philip Sutton from Greenleap and David Spratt from Carbon Equity argue that "human activity has
already pushed the planet's climate past several critical 'tipping points', including the initiation of
major ice sheet loss".
They quote US climate scientist James Hansen who warned in 2007 that the loss of 8 million square kilometres of Arctic sea ice now
seems inevitable, and may occur as early as 2010 — a century ahead of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections.
"There is already enough carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere to initiate ice sheet disintegration in
West Antarctica and Greenland and to ensure that sea levels will rise metres in coming decades", the report's
authors say.
"The projected speed of change, with temperature increases greater than 0.3°C per decade and the
consequent rapid shifting of climatic zones will, if maintained, likely result in most ecosystems failing to
adapt, causing the extinction of many animal and plant species. The oceans will become more acidic.
endangering much marine life.
"The Earth's passage into an era of dangerous climate change accelerates as each of these tipping
points is passed. If this acceleration becomes too great, humanity will no longer have the power to
reverse the processes we have set in motion."
The authors conclude that we can avert this potential disaster, but warn that the science demands that "politics as usual'' be rejected.
"The climate crisis will not respond to incremental modification of the business as usual model."
"The sustainabilitv emergency is now not so much a radical idea as simply an indispensable course of
action if we are to return to a safe-climate planet", the authors conclude.
Cam Walker, spokesperson from FoE, usedthe report's launch on February 4 to call on the government to urgently review the role of
the Garnaut Climate Change Review w h i c h is to make recommendations on carbon emission targets.
Walker criticised the terms of reference for Ross Garnaut, and the government's policy of a60% cut in emissions by 2050, saying that
global warming of 3^ would lead to disaster.
"The government is potentially allowing Garnaut to engage in dangerous trade-offs with the lives of many species and many people
rather than setting a safe-climate target", he said.
Walker said the government is behind the times on climate science and urged it to bring James Hansen, head of the US NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Science, and that country's most eminent climate scientist, into the review process "so that the science
was put first rather than last in making climate policy".
Walker said that Hansen warned in December that climate tipping points have already been passed for large
ice sheet disintegration and species loss, and there is already enough carbon in the Earth's atmosphere for
massive ice sheets such as on Greenland to eventually melt away.
"These impacts are starting to happen at less than one degree of warming, yet the government E effectively planning on allowing
warming to run to 3 degrees", said Walker.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - WARMING ADVANTAGE
In addition, natural forests provide recreation and unique scientific beauty while at the same time serving as
the basis for natural communities that provide life support to organisms (including people). As mentioned,
one vital by-product of plant photosynthetic activity is oxygen, which is essential to human existence. In
addition, forests remove pollutants and odors from the atmosphere. The wilderness is highly effective in
metabolizing many toxic substances. The atmospheric concentration of pollutants over the forest, such as
particulates and sulfur dioxide, are measurably below thai of adjacent areas (see Figure 2.3).
In view of their ecological role in ecosystems, the impact of species extinction may be devastating. The rich
diversity of species and the ecosystems that support them are intimately connected to the long-term survival
of humankind. As the historic conservationist AJdo Leopold stated in 1949, "The outstanding scientific
discovery of the twentieth century is not television or radio, but the complexity of the land organisms... To
keep even,' cog and wheel is the first precaution of intelligent tinkering."
An endangered species may have a significant role in its community. Such an organism may control the
structure and functioning of the community through its activities. The sea otter, for example, in relation to
its size, is perhaps the most voracious of ail marine mammals. The otter feeds on sea mollusks, sea urchins,
crabs, and fish. It needs to eat more than 20 percent of its weight every day to provide the necessary energy
to maintain its body temperature in a cold marine habitat. The_exliri£Ji2JD-fif such keystojlS or controller
species from the ecosystem would cause great damage, Its extinction could have cascading effects on many
species, even causing_secondary extinction.
Traditionally, species have always evolved along with their changing environment. As disease organisms
evolve, other organisms may evolve chemical defense mechanisms that confer disease resistance. As the
weather becomes drier, for example, plants may develop smaller, trucker leaves, which lose water slowly.
The environrrigiiL howeverJs now developing and changing rapidly, but evolutioms slow, requiring
hundreds of thousands of years. If species are allowed to become extinct^,jjic total.biological diversity
on Earth will be greatly reduced; therefore, the potential Connatural adaptation and change also will be
reduced, thus endangering the .diversity
14
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - WARMING ADVANTAGE
FOUR-CARBON DIE-OXIDE
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc) estimates that the range of stabilised atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration
by 2050 will be between 450 parts per million (ppm) and 550 ppm. A paper published in the journal Current Science (Vol 90. No 12)
argues that these concentration levels have not been correlated to health impacts. According to the paper, 426 ppm is the permissible
exposure over a lifetime. The author says that increasing levels of carbon dioxide, apart from affecting climate, will
have serious toxic effects on humans and other mammals. Higher carbon dioxide concentration affects
health by reducing blood ph causing difficulty in breathing, rapid pulse rate, headache, hearing loss,
sweating and fatigue. Some studies have also shown possibilities of embryonic or foetal abnormalities due
to increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
A study on health effects of high indoor carbon dioxide concentrations has established that at 600 ppm.
occupants felt stuffy, and above this level, symptoms of poisoning started to show. At 1.000 ppm. nearly all
the occupants were affected.
All these effects were observed with only a transient exposure and not over a lifetime. On an average, carbon dioxide levels in offices
reach 800-1,200 ppm and up to 2,000 ppm in overcrowded conference room; At present, carbon dioxide concentration in
the atmosphere is about 380 ppm. When it reaches 600 ppm. the Earth will have a permanent outdoor
atmosphere exactly like that of a stuffy room, which life may not adapt to.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - WARMING ADVANTAGE
16
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - WARMING ADVANTAGE
He believes only a massive expansion of nuclear power, which produces almost no CO2. can now check
a runaway warming which would raise sea levels disastrously around the world, cause climatic turbulence
and make agriculture unviable over large areas. He says fears about the safety of nuclear energy are
irrational and exaggerated, and urges the Green movement to drop its opposition.
In today's Independent, Professor Lovelock says he is concerned by two climatic events in particular: the
melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which will raise global sea levels significantly, and the episode of
extreme heat in western central Europe last August, accepted by many scientists as unprecedented and a
direct result of global warming.
These are ominous warning signs, he says, that climate change is speeding, but many people are still in
ignorance of this. Important among the reasons is "the denial of climate change is in the US. where
governments have failed to give their climate scientists the support they needed".
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - WARMING ADVANTAGE
18
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - WARMINGADVANTAGE
In May 2004 James Lovelock, originator of the Gaian (earth systems) hypothesis, stirred media interest when he
reiterated his support for nuclear power (NP) as part of the solution to the overwhelming threat that humanity
(and the planet) is facing from global wanning. Since then the nuclear industry has been lobbying hard to restart
its failing programme by presenting it as the answer to global warming.
James Lovelock knows better than any of us that the solution to global warming will involve complex
changes involving everything from finance to forestry and gigawatts to goat management, interacting together in a huge system
change. Above all, it will involve a shift in our perception of the world. Literally hundreds of new technologies
will be rolled out, primarily in energy conservation, energy efficiency, and many modes of renewable
energy technology.
The key to all this, as James taught us, is that Gaia moves in cycles that interact in mutually complementary ways, sometimes
facilitating each other and sometimes inhibiting each other. We must leave behind our old ways of thinking in isolated, linear, cause
and effect modules, and learn to think in the way that nature moves, in interrelated web-like systems.
The paradox is that nuclear power is an outstanding example of linear thinking. You dig out your uranium, you
bum it, and you bun,' it (or fire it off into the sun or something, whatever). From a systems point of view, the main thing to
bear in mind is that you must try to cause as few cancers as you can reasonably get away with, which
means isolating the nuclear cycle as best you can from the rest of nature, (and of course, you have make sure that
nobody with brown skin gets hold ofnuclear power, because they might develop nuclear weapons from it, and give them to Osama bin
Laden.).
When I put this systems argument to James Lovelock, his only response was that nuclear fission reactions have occurred in nature.
This is true: but asteroid hits are also a part of nature, but this does not mean that we should contemplating attracting asteroid hits in an
effort to extract energy from them. His response is not a valid defence of his position, and the systems argument against nuclear power
still stands.
James recognises that nuclear power is a risky business, but says that we must use it, because if we
continue to use coal oil and gas, it is certain that global warming will cause immense damage to
planet and people.
We must address the question raised by an environmentalist of the stature of James Lovelock. Should we accept nuclear power,
despite its dangers and drawbacks, as a necessary instrument in the battle against global warming''
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - ECONOMY ADVANTAGE
20
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - ECONOMY ADVANTAGE
FIRST, BLACKOUTS!
21
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - ECONOMY ADVANTAGE
significant investment: a high-voltage line from the coal fields of West Virginia to Baltimore and
Washington, D.C. and another, extending from West Virginia to Philadelphia, New Jersey, and Delaware.
However, these lines, hundreds of miles long, would not be necessary, if the mandate existed to build new
nuclear plants where the capacity would be near the load centers.While Virginia and Maryland utilities are
considering such new builds, most of the nuclear power plants that are under consideration by utilities are
in the semi-rural Southeast, where there is political support for new plants, and building more high-voltage
transmission lines to carry the power is unlikely to be held up for 15 years by "environmental" court
challenges. Some of that new nuclear-generated power from the Southeast will be used locally, for growing
demand, and some will be wheeled to the energy-short regions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, which
refuse to build their own capacity. Companies that have been buying up transmission capacity will make a
bundle, in the process.Investment in new transmission capacity overall has left the grid system vulnerable
to even small instabilities. The industry estimates that $100 billion is needed in new transmission capacity
and upgrades, as quickly as possible. The 2003 blackout did spur some increase in investment industry-
wide, from $3.5 billion per year to $6 billion in 2006. But profit-minded companies are only willing to
invest funds where there is a profit to be made, namely to carry their "economy transfers." regardless of
how that destabilizes the grid system overall. In a July 2006 article, three former electric utility executives,
who formed the organization, Power Engineers Supporting Truth (PEST), out of disgust with the refusal of
the government to pinpoint deregulation as the cause of the massive grid failure, after the 2003 New York
blackout, stated that the "core issue is an almost fundamentalist reliance on markets to solve even the most
scientifically complex problems... [Plolicy makers continue to act as if some adjustment in market
protocols is all that is required, and steadfastly refuse to acknowledge the accumulating mass of evidence
that deregulation ... is itself the problem. Social scientists call this kind of denial, cognitive dissonance."The
engineers, who have among them, more than five decades of experience in the electrical utility industry,
insist that "new transmission lines will not by themselves improve reliability. They may increase transfer
capacities, and hence improve commercial use of the grid," but will not necessarily improve performance of
the system. "Reliability standards have already been reduced to accomodate greater use of the grid for
commercial transactions," they warned (Table IQ.There has been a huge penalty for this disruption of the
functioning of the electric grid. PEST estimates that the 2003 blackout incurred economic losses in excess
of S5 billion. The California blackouts cost in excess of SI billion each. The national impact of declining
reliability and quality, they estimate, is in excess of S50 billion. Where To Go From Here When the
California energy crisis of 2000-2001 was raging, distraught state legislators and the embattled Gov. Gray
Davis searched for a solution. Although they knew what that solution was, they protested that it would be
impossible to put the toothpaste of deregulation back in the tube. Lyndon LaRouche and EIR proposed that
that was exactly what needed to be done.On Monday, July 17, 2006, in the midst of an intense Summer
heat wave, one of Con Edison's 22 primary feeder lines failed, below the streets of the City of New York.
Over the next several hours, five more feeder lines were lost. Voltage was reduced 8% to limit the
instability, and the utility was faced with 25,000 customers—about 100,000 people—in the heat and dark.
It took until midnight July 23—seven days later—to restore 20,000 of the affected customers, according to
Con Edison.The New York City blackout was the result not of a Summer heatwave, but of the decades of
underinvestment in the infrastructure that distributes electric power from central feeder lines, through
transformers, to the wires that deliver power to each home, school, factory, office building, small business,
and hospital. Some of Con Edison's underground infrastructure goes back almost as far as Thomas Edison's
first central generating station and underground cable, on Pearl Street in lower Manhattan, in 1882. It was a
length of 59-year-old cable whose failure was a factor in the July blackout. A couple of years ago in
Philadelphia, workers for PECO Energy found that some underground utility cable still in service dated to
1899. In July 1999. the failure of outdated cable was blamed for power outages in Manhattan affecting
200.000 people. In San Francisco, a failed cable in December 2003 created an outage for 100.000 residents.
"We've been using equipment far beyond its original intended life because we've been concerned with the
cost of replacement and the need to keep utility rates down," remarked Dean Oskvig, president of Black &
Veatch, an engineering firm based in St. Louis, last month.Industry-wide, there is agreement that
weaknesses due to the age of the underground distribution cable have been exacerbated by the way the
22
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
system is run in today's deregulated world. To "save money." the industry has turned to a policy of "run to
failure," where a company waits for a failure before replacing aged power lines and other equipment. Black
& Veatch reports that although utilities currently spend more than $18 billion on local distribution systems,
most of that is to string new wire to new housing developments (which will likely come to an end soon,
along with the housing boom), and that an additional $8-10 billion per year is needed to replace obsolete
and corroded equipment.On top of this disinvestment policy, local distribution systems, like the
transmission system, are being stretched beyond their design limits. In addition to chronological age,
overheating of equipment that is caused by heavy electricity use and is repeatedly stressed will age faster,
and is more likely to fail suddenly.In 1986, Con Edison began a program to replace all of its older cable
with a newer design. It is spending about $25 million per year, and at that rate, the utility will not finish
until 2024. By that time, some of its replacement cable will be 38 years old. Con Edison delivers electricity
to 3.2 million customers, through 95,000 miles of underground cable, and 33,000 miles of overhead wires.
Estimates are that about 27% of its underground cable needs to be replaced. Why is it taking decades to
replace old cable?According to media reports, recently Southern California Edison sought approval from
the state Public Utilities Commission to replace 800 miles of aging underground cable, after concluding
that cable failures were the leading cause of outages that could be prevented. But "consumer advocates"
opposed the utility's request to recoup the $145 million cost of replacement, on the grounds that the utility's
records were not adequate to ensure the worst cables would be replaced first. The utility will proceed and
spend $250 million more than is recouped in customers' bills anyway, because they "don't want to get too
far behind." Apparently the shareholder-driven "consumer advocates" never added up the economic, and
sometimes, life-threatening costs, of the alternative—blackouts.Before deregulation, companies like Con
Edison would make investments in infrastructure that were deemed necessary, to maintain a level of service
and reliability that met industry-wide standards, assured that state regulators would allow them to recover
the costs, and maintain their financial health. Today, many states have no authority to either order
investments or compensate companies that make them, leaving Wall Street and the "free market" to decide
who shall have reliable electric power.Between 1990 and the year 2000, utility employment in power
generation dropped from 350,000 to 280,000, as utilities looked for ways to slash costs, to be
"competitive." Over the same decade, employment in transmission and distribution went from 196,000 to
156,000, in a system that is growing more complex by the day. Today, the average age of a power lineman
is 50 years."Quick profit," deregulation, shareholder values, environmentalism. have all run their course,
and nearly taken down the electricity grid. It is time to change the axioms.Transmitting Power, or Just
Profits?Yes, there need to be more power plants built, to make up for the deficits in electric-generating
capacity in many parts of the country. It is also the case that entire regions, in particular the West and East
Coasts, have so much congestion on their transmission lines, that they cannot import the power they need.
And as seen in New York City this past July, breakdowns in 100-year-old underground local distribution
systems are now leaving tens of thousands of people in the dark, and must be replaced.But it is foolhardy to
think that the needed investments will be made under the present regime. Today, thanks to deregulation, a
company can earn more profits by not building anything, and instead charging more for what they already
produce, by creating shortages. This strategy was implemented to perfection six years ago by Enron and
other power pirates in California, which withheld power to raise prices through the roof, allowing them to
steal tens of billions of dollars out of the pockets of electricity consumers throughout the West
Coast.Today, unregulated utility companies do not plow a large portion of their profits back into improving
infrastructure, but instead pay out higher dividends to stockholders. If even a regulated company has any
hope of raising hundreds of millions of dollars on Wall Street to finance growth, it must prove itself
creditworthy, by cutting costs and showing it can abide by shareholder values.Individual companies no
longer cooperate to ensure the overall reliability of the electric grid. They compete to build power plants
and transmission lines based on their return on investment, not on the physical requirements of a regional
system. They make themselves "competitive" to undercut the competition by cutting maintenance costs and
getting rid of as many employees as they can.For two decades, industry officials and the North American
Electric Reliability Council (NERC) have warned that restructuring the electricity system would destroy it.
An understanding of that danger provoked Dr. Anjan Bose, former Dean of Engineering at Washington
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
State University, to comment, citing the advancement of power systems expertise in China and India that
"the next time a grandstanding politician in North America compares our grid to that of the Third World, he
may actually mean it as a compliment."There is no way to "Fix" the system, as Congress has tried to do. by
piling on more and more Federal regulations, to try to patch up the gaping holes in the broken system that
now exists. The only remedy is to return the intention of the industry to one of providing universally
reliable service, by putting the toothpaste of deregulation back in the tube.The nearly two dozen states that
have restructured their local industry, forcing utilities to sell their generation assets to conglomerate holding
companies, in order to "compete," must return responsibility and oversight for electric generation and
disribution to the state utility commissions. These public servants should decide what should be built, and
where, on the basis of providing for the general welfare, not the profit profiles of companies headquartered
a half-continent away.The now-congested and unstable long-distance high-voltage transmission systems
that criss-cross the nation must be used for the purpose for which they were intended: to enable bulk power
transfer in case of emergency, not to wheel power from one end of the country to the other so a company
can import cheaper power, charge a few cents less, and beat out the competition. Responsibility for the
transmission system should be taken out of the hands of the Federal deregulators, and returned to the
regional reliability councils that formulated the rules of the road to keep the system robust.There are no
shortcuts. Decisive action is needed to reverse the past thirty years of failed policies.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
25
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - ECONOMY ADVANTAGE
ONLY NUCLEAR POWER CAN PROVIDE RELIABLE ELECTRICAL POWER TO KEEP OUR
NATION'S INFRASTRUCTURE FROM GOING UNDER
FERTEL 2004
(March 4 2004, Marvin S., Senior Vice President and Chief Nuclear Officer Nuclear Energy Institute,
"United States Senate Committee Energy and Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy", Testimony, pg
online @ http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/speechesandtestimony/2004/energysubcmtefertelextended)
America's 103 nuclear power plants are the most efficient and reliable in the world. Nuclear energy is the
largest source of emission-free electricity in the United States and our nation's second largest source of
electricity after coal. Nuclear power plants in 31 states provide electricity for one of every five U.S. homes
and businesses. Seven out of 10 Americans believe nuclear energy should play an important role in the
country's energy future. 1
Given these facts and the strategic importance of nuclear energy to our nation's energy security and
economic growth. NE1 encourages the Congress to adopt policies that foster continued expansion of
emission-free nuclear energy as a vital part of our nation's diverse energy mix.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1 AC - ECONOMY ADVANTAGE
OIL PEAK IMMINENT - PRICE SHOCKS WIL RIPPLE THROUGH OUR NATIONS
INFRASTRUCTURE
LANDRY 2007
(March 30 2007, Cathy, of the American Petroleum Institute, "GAO warns of peak oil threat to global
economies", pg LEXIS)
World oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. the US Government Accountability
Office said March 29, cautioning that if the phenomenon occurs "soon" and "without warning." it could
cause oil prices to surge to unprecedented levels and result in "severe" economic damage. "The prospect
of a peak in oil production presents problems of global proportions whose consequences will depend
critically on our preparedness." GAO, the nonpartisan investigative arm of Congress, said in a report.
"While these consequences would be felt globally, the United States, as the largest consumer of oil and one
of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be especially vulnerable among the
industrialized nations of the world." Despite the threat of peak oil, the US government currently has no
"coordinated or well-defined strategy" to address the uncertainties about the timing of peak oil or to
mitigate its potential effects. For that reason. GAO recommended that the federal government take
immediate action, and suggested that the US energy secretary take the lead in coordinating a government
strategy. The government effort. GAO said, should include a monitoring of global supply and demand with
the intent of reducing uncertainty about the timing of peak oil production. It also should assess alternative
technologies in light of predictions about the timing of peak oil and periodically advise Congress on likely
cost-effective areas where government could assist the private sector with development or adoption of the
new technologies. GAO pointed out that there are "many possible alternatives" to using oil, but that
alternatives will require large investments and in some cases will require major investments or
breakthroughs in technology. "Investment, however, is determined largely by price expectations, so unless
high oil prices are sustained, we cannot expect private investment to continue at current levels," GAO said.
But if the peak were anticipated, it said, oil prices would rise, signaling industry to increase efforts to
develop alternatives and consumers of energy to conserve and look for more energy-efficient products.
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1 AC - ECONOMY ADVANTAGE
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30
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1 AC - ECONOMY ADVANTAGE
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1 AC - ECONOMY ADVANTAGE
numerous chemical companies. There is no doubt that this powerful new tool will play a major role in
feeding the World's population in the coming century, but its adoption has hit some bumps in the road. In the second essay, Editor-at-
Large Michael Heylin examines how the promise of agricultural biotechnology has gotten tangled up in real public fear of genetic manipulation and
corporate control over food. The third essay, by Senior Editor Mairin B. Brennan, looks al chemists embarking on what is perhaps the greatest intellectual
quest in the history of science—humans 1 attempt to understand the detailed chemistry of the human brain, and with it, human consciousness. While this
quest is, at one level, basic research at its most pure, it also has enormous practical significance. Brennan focuses on one such practical aspect: the effort
to understand neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease that predominantly plague older humans and are likely to
become increasingly difficult public health problems among an aging population. Science and technology are always two-edged swords. They bestow the
power to create and the power to destroy. In addition lo its enormous potential for health and agriculture, genetic engineering conceivably could be used
to create horrific biological warfare agents. In the fourth essay of this Millennium Special Report, Senior Correspondent Lois R. Ember examines the
challenge of developing methods to counter the threat of such biological weapons. "Science and technology will eventually produce sensors able to detect
the presence or release of biological agents, or devices that aid in forecasting, remediating, and ameliorating bioattacks," Ember writes. Finally,
Contributing Editor Wil Lepkowski discusses the most mundane, the most marvelous, and the most essential molecule on Earth, H20. Providing clean
water to Earth's population is already difficult—and tragically, not always accomplished. Lepkowski looks in depth at the situation in Bangladesh—
where a well-meaning UN program to deliver clean water from wells has poisoned millions with arsenic. Chemists are working to develop better ways to
detect arsenic in drinking water at meaningful concentrations and ways to remove it that will work in a poor, developing country. And he explores the
evolving water management philosophy, and the science that underpins it, that will be needed to provide adequate water for all its vital uses. In the past
two centuries, our science has transformed the world. Chemistry is a wondrous too! that has allowed us to understand the structure of matter and gives us
the ability to manipulate that structure to suit our own purposes. It allows us to dissect the molecules of life to see what makes them, and us, tick. It is
providing a glimpse into workings of what may be the most complex structure in the universe, the human brain, and with it hints about what
constitutes consciousness. In the coming decades, we will use chemistry to delve ever deeper into these
mysteries and provide for humanity's basic and not-so-basic needs.
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1 AC - PROLIFERATION ADVANTAGE
33
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1 AC - PROLIFERATION ADVANTAGE
34
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35
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36
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1 AC - PLAN
The United States Federal Government should substantially increase loan guarantees for
the expansion of domestic nuclear power facilities.
We'll clarify.
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1AC - SOLVENCY
38
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1AC- SOLVENCY
39
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1AC - SOLVENCY
development." David Torgerson, chief technology officer and senior vice-president of Atomic Energy of Canada, says the way
uranium resources are used by power generators is driven by cost and supply. During the 1990s, for example, uranium prices were so
low that it made more economic sense to just use it once and then stick the spent fuels in wet or dry storage. But some countries dont
have their own uranium resources, leaving them dependent on imports from other, potentially hostile jurisdictions. As uranium prices
rise, the economics ofthe once-through fuel cycle also become bss appealing when measured against the costs of waste management
and disposal. "As the nuclear renaissance takes off and more reactors are built, it's likely the price of uranium will increase (even
more), and people will be looking at ways of getting more value outof that uranium," says Torgerson. "Any time you can convert a
waste into an asset, then you're going in the right direction." He's quick to point out that the DUPIC process is
also "proliferation resistant." meaning there is no chemical separation ofthe spent uranium's more
dangerous components, primarily plutonium. which could be used by extremists or rogue nations to
produce nuclear weapons. Only mechanical processing is required to change the shape ofthe spent fuel
rods into shorter Candu rods. Mechanical reprocessing, while it has some safety and transportation issues,
could be cheaper than conventional chemical reprocessing. "Because this is so much simpler, you have to
expect the economics are going to be so much better." says Torgerson, pointing out that the South Koreans
studied the economics ofthe DUPIC fuel cycle in the 1990s and found it could compete against other fuel
options. "This is one ofthe characteristics we're certainly pushing." For countries such as China, which
already have Candu reactors in their fleet, it's an approach that could prove attractive. AECL estimates that
waste fuel from three light-water reactors would be enough to fuel one Candu. Daune Bratt, a political
science instructor and expert on Canadian nuclear policy at Calgary's Mount Royal College, says he can
envision two revenue streams going to Candu operators that choose to embrace the DUPIC process. One
stream would be the revenue that comes in through the generation and sale of electricity; the other would
come from a tipping fee that operators of light-water reactors would pay to unload their spent fuel. "These
(Candu) operators wouldn't be buying the spent fuel, they'd be paid to use the spent fuel for environmental
reasons," says Bratt. "If you can minimize the waste, you bring tremendous value."
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
1AC - SOLVENCY
NUCLEAR ENERGY IS THE MOST COST EFFECTIVE WAY TO ADDRESS ENERGY AND
POLLUTION CONCERNS
FORATOM 2006 - EUROPEAN ATTOMIC FORUM
NUCLEAR ENERGY THE MOST COST EFFECTIVE, 2-1,
http://www.foratom.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=219&Itemid=938
Each country needs an appropriate energy strategy, reflecting its natural resources and its energy needs.
Nuclear energy enables countries to:
* reduce their reliance on imported fossil fuels and electricity imports
* increase their energy independence
* strengthen security of energy supply.
With greater reliance on nuclear energy, countries are less likely to be seriously affected by fossil fuel
shortages and sudden rises in fossil fuel prices. The uranium used in nuclear fuel is available from various
countries with a long history of political stability, including Australia and Canada. This has a stabilising
effect on uranium prices and supply. Any rise in uranium prices would have only a minor impact on the
cost of a nuclear kilowatt-hour, as fuel makes up a comparatively small part of the total cost of producing
nuclear electricity. Power plants that burn fossil fuels are more fuel-intensive: producers and consumers
therefore face a much greater risk of increased costs due to higher fuel prices.
Many existing nuclear power plants have already been paid for. Their operating costs are therefore low, and
the electricity produced is among the cheapest in comparison with other sources. Cost projections show
that new power reactors will also be competitive, even assuming low gas prices and heavy subsidies
for wind power.
Many studies have recently been conducted to compare the costs of generating electricity by different
energy sources, including nuclear, which concluded that nuclear is the most cost-effective power source.
The OECD/NEA report. "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity", underlines the cost advantages,
especially at discount rates of 5% and 10%, that nuclear energy has when it comes to generating electricity.
These advantages are all the more significant when one considers that demand for energy is set to continue
growing steadily across the world. A recent report conducted by the World Nuclear Association (WNA),
'The New Economics of Nuclear Power", draws the conclusion that in most industrialized countries new
nuclear power plants offer the most economical way to generate electricity. Moreover according to a
study commissioned by the German Federation, postponing plans to shut down nuclear power plants would
reduce Germany's electricity generating costs and cut greenhouse gas emissions.
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1 AC - SOLVENCY
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1AC - SOLVENCY
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1AC - SOLVENCY
OTHER ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FAILS - NUCLEAR POWER IS THE ONLY HOPE - BOTH
SIDES OF THE ISSUE AGREE
DISCOVER 2008 - SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND THE FUTURE
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY OUR BEST HOPE, 4-25, http://discovermagazine.com/2008/may/02-is-nuclear-
energy-our-best-hope
Four years ago this month, James Lovelock upset a lot of his fans. Lovelock was revered in the green
movement for developing the Gaia hypothesis, which links everything on earth to a dynamic, organic
whole. Writing in the British newspaper The Independent, Lovelock stated in an op-ed: "We have no time
to experiment with visionary energy sources: civilisation is in imminent danger and has to use
nuclear—the one safe, available energy source—now or suffer the pain soon to be inflicted by our
outraged planet." Lovelock explained that his decision to endorse nuclear power was motivated by his
fear of the consequences of global warming and by reports of increasing fossil-fuel emissions that drive the
warming. Jesse Ausubel, head of the Program for the Human Environment at Rockefeller University,
recently echoed Lovelock's sentiment. "As a green, I care intensely about land-sparing, about leaving land
for nature," he wrote. "To reach the scale at which they would contribute importantly to meeting global
energy demand, renewable sources of energy such as wind, water, and biomass cause serious
environmental harm. Measuring renewables in watts per square meter, nuclear has astronomical advantages
over its competitors." All of this has led several other prominent environmentalists to publicly favor new
nuclear plants. I had a similar change of heart. For years I opposed nuclear power, but while I was
researching my book Power to Save the World: The Truth About Nuclear Energy, my views completely
turned around. According to the Department of Energy, just to maintain nuclear's 20 percent share of the
energy supply, the United States would need to add three or four new nuclear power plants a year starting
in 2015. (There are 104 nuclear power plants currently in operation in the United States.) But no new
nuclear power plants have been built here in 30 years, partly because of the public's aversion to nuclear
power after the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 and the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. Now NRG Energy, based in Princeton, New
Jersey, is sticking its neck out with plans to build two new nuclear reactors at the South Texas Project facility near Bay City. The new-
reactors w i l l be able to steadily generate a total of 2,700 megawatts—enough to light up 2 million households, advertisement | article
continues below The United States alone pumped the equivalent of nearly 7 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in
2005. More than 2 billion tons of that came from electricity generation—not surprising, considering that we burn fossil fuels for 70
percent of our electricity. About half of all our electricity comes from more than 500 coal-fired plants. Besides contributing to global
warming, their pollution has a serious health impact. Burning coal releases fine particulates that kill 24,000 Americans annually and
cause hundreds of thousands of cases of lung and heart problems. America's electricity demand is expected to
increase by almost 50 percent by 2030. according to the Department of Energy. Unfortunately, renewable
energy sources, such as the wind and sun, are highly unlikely to meet that need. Wind and solar
installations today supply less than 1 percent of electricity in the United States, do so intermittently, and
are decades away from providing more than a small boost to the electric grid. "To meet the 2005 U.S.
electricity demand of about 4 million megawatt-hours with around-the-clock wind would have required
wind farms covering over 780,000 square kilometers," Ausubel notes. For context, 780,000 square
kilometers (301,000 square miles) is greater than the area of Texas. Solar power fares badly too, in
Ausubel's analysis: "The amount of energy generated in [one quart] of the core of a nuclear reactor requires
[2.5 acres] of solar cells." Geothermal power also is decades awav from making a significant
contribution to America's electricity budget.
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1AC - SOLVENCY
45
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
47
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In its report dated January 10, 2005, the NETF identified the unavailability of
financing as a significant obstacle to new nuclear power plant construction. The
NETF recommended that the US government offer a range of financial incentives for the
construction of the first few reactors, such as: secured loans, loan guarantees, accelerated
depreciation, investment tax credits, production tax credits and government power
purchase agreements.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
Currently, the world is led to believe that nuclear power is "evil" and does nothing but
harm society.
By Fareed Zakaria NEWSWEEK
Apr 21,2008 Issue
Interviewing Patrick Moore, one of the cofounders of Greenpeace
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
After six years of the Bush administration pushing for more oil production and new
nuclear power. Democrats want to provide new incentives for energy efficiency and
renewable energy while limiting those for nuclear power.
The United States if failing to invest and fund nuclear energy technology.
W. J. Nuttall, Judge Institute of Management and Cambridge University Engineering
Department, 2005, "Nuclear Renaissance: Technologies and Policies for the Future of
Nuclear Power"
This book does not argue for a return of the days of the welfare state for nuclear
power. What is observed, however, is that the liberalized markets of North America and
western Europe have, thus far, failed to capture properly all aspects of energy policy and
that these shortcomings have disproportionately harmed new investment in nuclear
generation capacity.
50
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
Climate change sceptics sometimes claim that manv leading scientists question
climate chanae. Well, it all depends on what you mean by "many" and "leading". For
instance, in April 2006, 60 "leading scientists" signed a letter urging Canada's new
prime minister to review his country's commitment to the Kyoto protocol. This appears
to be the biggest recent list of sceptics. Yet manv, if not most, of the 60
signatories are not actively engaged in studying climate change: some are not
scientists at all and at least 15 are retired. Compare that with the dozens of
statements on climate change from various scientific organisations around the
world representing tens of thousands of scientists, the consensus position
represented bv the IPCC reports and the 11,000 signatories to a petition
condemning the Bush administration's stance on climate science. The fact is that
there is an overwhelming consensus in the scientific community about global
warming and its causes. There are some exceptions, but the number of sceptics is
getting smaller rather than growing. Even the position of perhaps the most
respected sceptic. Richard Lindzen of MIT, is not that far off the mainstream: he
does not deny it is happening but thinks future warming will not be nearly as
great as most predict. Of course, just because most scientists think something is
true does not necessarily mean they are right. But the reason they think the way
they do is because of the vast and growing body of evidence. A study in 2004
looked at the abstracts of nearly 1000 scientific papers containing the term "global
climate change" published in the previous decade. Not one rejected the consensus
position. One critic promptly claimed this study was wrong - but later quietly withdrew
the claim.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
. it Will get a WhOle lOt The last time the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
assessed the state of the climate, in early 2001 , it got a polite enough hearing The world was warming, it said, and human activity was "likely" to be driving most of
the warming Back then, the committee specified a better-than-60% chance-not exactly a ringing endorsement. And how bad might thhgs get? That depended on
a 20-year-old guess about how sensitive the climate system might be to rising greenhouse gases. Given the uncertainties, the IPCC report's reception was on the
tepid side Six years of research later, the heightened confidence is obvious The Warming JS "uneqUJVOCal." HUfTianS 3T6
"very likelv" (higher than 90% likelihood) behind the warming. And the climate
system is "very unlikely" to be so insensitive as to render future warming
inconsequential. This is the way n was supposed to work according to qlacioloqist Richard Alley of
Pennsylvania State University in State College, 3 l63d 3UthOr OH thJS IPCC repOlt. "The governments of the world said
to scientists, 'Here's a few billion dollars-get this right,' " Alley says. 'They took the money, and 17 years after the first IPCC report, they got it right. It's still
science, not revealed truth, but the science has gotten better and better and better. We're putting C02 in the air, and that's changing the climate " With such self-
assurance, this IPCC report may really go somewhere, especially in the newly receptive United States {see sidebar, p 756), where a small band of scientists has
long contested IPCC reports Coordinating lead author Gabriele Hegerl of Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, certainly hopes their report hits home this
time "I want societies to understand that this is a real problem, and it affects the life of my kids " Down to work Created by the World Meteorological
Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, the IPCC had the process down for its fourth assessment report. I OrTV
governments nominated the 150 lead authors and 450 contributing authors Of a.mate
change 2007 The Physical science Basis There was no clique of senior insiders: 75% of nominated
lead authors were new to that role, and one-third of authors got their final degree
in the aSt 1U . Authors had their draft chapters reviewed by all comers More than 600 volunteered, submitting 30,000 comments
Authors responded to every comment, and reviewers certified each response. With their final draft of the science in hand, authors gathered in Paris, France, with
300 representatives of 113 nations for 4 days to hash out the wording of a scientist-written Summary for Policymakers. I 1)6 f3Ct Of Warming
was perhaps the most straightforward item of business. For starters, the air is 0.74°C warmer
than in 1906 up from a century's warming of 0.6'C in the last report EleV6n Of the l3St tWBlVB VBBTS T3nk
among the 12 warmest years in the M50-vear-lonq1 instrumental record,- notes the
summary(ipcc-wgi.ucar.edu). Warming ocean waters, shrinking mountain glaciers, and
retreating snow cover strengthened the evidence. So the IPCC authors weren't
impressed by the contrarian argument that the warming is just an "urban heat
IS13 D U eTTeCT driven by increasing amounts of heat-absorbing concrete and asphalt. That effect is real, the report says, but it has "a negligible
influence" on the global number. Likewise, new analyses have largely settled the hullabaloo over why thermometers at Earth's surface measured more wanning
than remote-sensing satellites had detected higher in the atmosphere (Science, 12 May 2006, p. 825). otUQIBS DV SGVBfal QTOUPS
haVe increased the Satellite-determined Warming, largely reconciling the difference This confidently observed
warming of the globe can't be anything but mostly human-induced, the IPCC finds. True. rnOQ0MDC| StUQ|0S__naV0 SDOWn IDai
natural forces in the climate system-such as calmer volcanoes and me SUns brightening-have in fact led to
WarmiflQ in the PaSt, as skeptics point out. And the natural ups and downs of dimate have at times warmed the globe. But all of these natural
variations in combination have not warmed the world enough, fast enough, and for long enough in the right geographic patterns to produce the observed warming,
the report finds. In model studies, nothing warms the world as observed except the addition of greenhouse gases in the actual amounts emitted. From studies of
long-past climate, including the famous hockey-stick curve of the past millennium's temperature (Science, A August 2006, p. 603), the IPCC concludes that the
recent warming ,s quite out of the ordinary -Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half
of the 20th centurv were very likelv higher than during anv other 50-vear period in
the last 500 years." the report concludes, "and likelv the highest in at least the
PaSt 1 \5UU VearS." Contrarians have conceded that greenhouse gases may be warming the planet, but not by much, they say. The dimate
system is not sensitive enough to greenhouse gases to overheat the globe, they say. For the first time, the iPCC report directly counters that argument.
52
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
changes point to a fairly sensitive climate system The Waiming for 3 dOUblinQ Of CO2 "JS V6rV UnlJkelV tO
be less than 1.5°C," saV5 me rep0rt, not the less than 0.5°C favored by some contrarians.
A beSt estimate IS aDOUt O (->. with a likely range of 2°C to 4.5°C. What next? Looking ahead, the report projects a warming of
about 0.4°C for the next 2 decades. That is about as rapid as the warming of the past 15 years, but 50% faster than the warming of the past 50 years PV
the end of this centurv, global temperatures might rise anvwhere between a
substantial 1.7°C and a whopping 4.0°C,
53
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
54
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
Nuclear power can play a significant role in preventing catastrophic global warming,
maintain William C. Sailor and Bob van der Zwaan, visiting science fellows at the Center
for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford (Calif.) University. They are
affiliated with Nuclear Power Issues and Choices for the 21st Century, a CISAC project
investigating whether nuclear energy has a legitimate role in preventing global
warming."Mankind is facing a tremendous challenge with global climate change. In the
coming two decades, we have to consider new energy sources, including nuclear,"
indicates Van der Zwaan, on leave from the Free University of the Netherlands, though
he admits that widespread public concern has led several countries to halt development of
llUClear energy. "Eighty-five percent of all Dutch people are opposed to it," he notes, and the numbers are similar in other European countries.
Most of the world's energy is derived from fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas. Only
about six percent comes from nuclear power plants However, burning fossil fuels emits
large amounts of carbon dioxide ([CO.sub.2]) and other gases that trap infrared radiation
from the sun. As a result say many climatologists, the atmosphere is heating up like the
inside of a greenhouse, and unless the rate of [CO.sub.2] gas emissions is reduced the
temperature of the Earth will increase by as much as 6 [degrees] F in the 21st century.
Such global wanning, according to worst-case scenarios, will cause disastrous floods,
droughts, and erratic changes in ocean currents, and even will spread tropical diseases
and parasites throughout the planet. Advocates say that nuclear power can help prevent
global warming because reactors produce virtually no greenhouse gases. They point to France, where
about 60 nuclear power plants provide three-fourths of the country's electricity. Critics argue that nuclear power is inherently dangerous and prohibitively
easier for plutonium fuel to gei into me minus 01 terrorists anu outers eager to DUUU smaii-scaie nucieai weapons, van uer ^waan anu janui pi.
recent studies showing that, to prevent dangerous climate change from occurring in the next 50 years, the [CO.sub.2]-gas emissions must rema
current levels--despite a projected 50% population increase by the year 2050 that could double or triple world demand for energy. "LaCKing 3.
crystal ball that tells us the future, we simply select one possible scenario that achieves
the emissions target." Their scenario envisions a world in which one-third of all energy
comes from fossil fuels; one-third from renewable resources, like solar and wind power
and one-third from nuclear power. To achieve that ambitious goal, all the nations of the
world would have to consume less oil, coal, and natural gas than they do today, while
increasing renewable and nuclear energy sources at least tenfold. TO accomplish that win require increasing
the number of nuclear reactors from about 430 to roughly 4,000, which means that more than one nuclear reactor would have to be built every week for
the next 50 years.. "That would require a massive industrial effort" Van der Z.waan
. concedes,, costing trillions of dollars,, but
developed nations like the U.S. can achieve this objective if there is strong popular
SUpPOrt. (According to the Department of Energy, the U.S. has 104 nuclear reactors in operation today. Twenty-eight have been shut down
permanently since 1953, and there are no plans to build new ones.) Sailor, who is on a one-year sabbatical from the Los Alamos (N.M.) National
Laboratory and holds a doctorate in nuclear engineering, argues that renewable forms of energy such as hydro, wind, and solar power are fraught with
technical or environmental problems that make them unlikely substitutes. "Once it's realized that W6 CamiOt make ends
meet without nuclear energy, there is a chance that public opinion will turn greatly so that
nuclear power will once again be acceptable."
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
in May 2004 James Lovelock, originator of the Gaian (earth systems) hypothesis, stirred media
interest when he reiterated his support for nuclear power <NP) as part of the solution to the
overwhelming threat that humanity (and the planet) is facing from global warming, since then the
nuclear industry has been lobbying hard to restart its failing programme by presenting it
as the answer to global warming.
James Lovelock knows better than any of us that the solution to global warming will
involve Complex changes involving everything from finance to forestry and gigawatts to goat management, interacting
together in a huge system change. Above all, it will involve a shift in our perception of the world.
Literally hundreds of new technologies will be rolled out, primarily in energy
conservation, energy efficiency, and many modes of renewable energy technology.
The key to all this, as James taught us, is that Gaia moves in cycles that interact in mutually complementary 1 ways, sometimes
facilitating each other and sometimes inhibiting each other. We must leave behind our old ways of thinking in isolated, linear, cause
and effect modules, and learn to think in the way that nature moves, in interrelated web-like systems.
The paradox is that nuclear power is an outstanding example of linear thinking. YOU dig out
your uranium, you bum it, and you bury it (or fire it off into the sun or something, whatever). From a Systems point 01
view, the main thing to bear in mind is that you must try to cause as few cancers as you
can reasonably get away with, which means isolating the nuclear cycle as best you can
from the rest 01 nature; (and of course, you have make sure that nobody with brown skin gets hold of nuclear power,
because they might develop nuclear weapons from it, and give them to Osama bin Laden.).
When I put this systems argument to James Lovelock, his only response was that nuclear fission reactions have occurred in nature.
This is true; but asteroid hits are also a part of nature, but this does not mean that we should contemplating attracting asteroid hits in an
effort to extract energy from them. His response is not a valid defence of his position, and the systems argument against nuclear power
still stands.
James recognises that nuclear power is a risky business, but says that we must use it,
because if we continue to use coal oil and gas, it is certain that global warming will cause
immense damage to planet and people.
We must address the question raised by an environmentalist of the stature of James Lovelock. Should we accept nuclear power,
despite its dangers and drawbacks, as a necessary instrument in the battle against global warming?
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
Understand this: For the past quarter century, nuclear energy has been the nation's most
important source of clean power for avoiding airborne emissions that result from burning
oil, natural gas and coal.
According to a new study by Washington-based Energy Resources International, nuclear
energy - by substituting for fossil-fuel power plants - has prevented 219 million tons of
sulfur dioxide and 98 million tons of nitrogen oxides from being discharged into the
atmosphere since 1973. Emission-free nuclear energy also has avoided the release of
more than 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas linked to global
warming.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
TO Summarize, human aCtivitV iS CaUSing the Earth tO Warm. Bacteria converts carbon in the soil into greenhouse
gasses, and enormous quantities are trapped in unstable clathrates. As the earth continues to warm, permafrost clathrates will thaw, peat and soil microbial activity will
dramatically increase, and, finally, vast oceanic clathrales will melt. This global warming chain reaction has happened in the past.
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 rose by a record amount over the past year. It is the
third successive year in which they have increased sharply. Scientists are at a loss to
explain why the rapid rise has taken place, but fear the trend could be the first sign of
runaway global warming.
Runaway Global Warming promises to literally burn-up agricultural areas into dust
worldwide by 2012, causing global famine, anarchy, diseases, and war on a global scale
as military powers including the U.S., Russia, and China, fight for control of the Earth's
remaining resources.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
Over 4.5 billion people could die from Global Warming related causes by 2012, as planet
Earth accelarates into a greed-driven horrific catastrophe.
59
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
The IPCC Working Group III Subgroup on Agriculture, Forestry and Other Systems
(AFOS) report concludes: The anticipated rise in global average temperature of about 2
to 3 oC over the next century will most likely lead to severe impacts on agriculture and
forestry such as: a shift of the climatic zones by several hundred kilometres towards the
poles, enlarging the arid zones in the tropical and subtropical regions, and reducing the
land available for agriculture, a rise in sea level of about 0.3 metres, inundating valuable land in
coastal areas, especially in tropical and subtropical zones, a gradual breakdown of many ecosystems like
forests in temperate and boreal regions, leading to additional CO2 emissions and thus to further greenhouse
warming, potentially increased effects from pests and weeds.
Marine and land food species may also be affected by the increasing levels of ultraviolet
radiation reaching the earth as a result of unavoidable ongoing depletion of stratospheric
ozone. This could lead to a reduced production of biomass and photosynthesis, thus again
enhancing the CO2 content of the atmosphere.
The Group concludes that "it is likely to be enormously difficult task for mankind, not
only to limit climate change to a tolerable level, but also to simultaneously achieve
sufficient food production for a still rising world population..." <K. Heinioth (Physiiaiisches institut
des Universit t Bonn) & R.P. Karimanzira, "Outcomes and policy recommendations from the IPCC/AFOS working group on climate
change response strategies and emission reductions", Climatic Change, v.27(l). p. 139-146. May 1994).
Eminent US scientists. Henry Kendall and David Pimental, agree with the conclusions of
the IPCC workshop. In modelling food supply requirements for various population levels,
they conclude that global warming and ozone depletion may have catastrophic effects on
global food production. While most countries were food self-sufficient in the early 1960s, few remain
so. The increasing reliance on fertilisers, pesticides and irrigation, increasing spread of soil erosion, ground
and surface water pollution, salinisation, and rapid degradation of productive land has contributed to
significantly reduced food production. In Africa, per capita grain production has decreased by 22 percent
since 1967. Simultaneously, global population is projected to double in 40 years,
necessitating a tripling of current food production to maintain all peoples above the
poverty line. Water is considered the major limiting factor, but the problems associated
with irrigation suggest that this is not the answer. Their study finds that while global
warming may benefit some crops, it may also benefit pests, insects and weeds.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
So, to repeat, the food bubble is now starting to implode. What does it all mean? It
means that as these economic and climate realities unfold, our world is facing massive
starvation and food shortages. The First place this will be felt is in poor developing
nations. It is there that people live on the edge of economic livelihood, where even a 20%
rise in the price of basic food staples can put desperately-needed calories out of reach of
tens of millions of families. If something is not done to rescue these people from their
plight, they will starve to death.
Wealthy nations like America. Canada, the U.K.. and others will be able to absorb the price increases, so you won't see mass
starvation in North America any time soon (unless, of course, all the honeybees die, in which case prepare to start chewing your
shoelaces...), but it will lead to significant increases in the cost of living, annoying consumers and reducing the amount of money
available for other purchases (like vacations, cars, fuel, etc.). That, of course, will put downward pressure on the national economy.
But what we're seeing right now, folks, is just a small foreshadowing of events to come in
the next couple of decades. Think about it: If these minor climate changes and foolish
biofuels policies are already unleashing alarming rises in food prices, just imagine what
we'll see when Peak Oil kicks in and global oil supplies really start to dwindle. When
gasoline is $10 a gallon in the U.S., how expensive will food be around the world? The
answer, of course, is that it will be triple or quadruple the current price. And that means
many more people will starve.
Fossil fuels, of course, aren't the only limiting factor threatening future food supplies on
OUr planet: There's also/o^/7 water. That's water from underground aquifers that's being pumped up to the surface to water crops,
then it's lost to evaporation. Countries like India and China are depending heavily on fossil water to irrigate lieir crops, and not
surprisingly, the water levels in those aquifers is dropping steadily. In a few more years (as little as five years in
some cases), that water will simply run dry, and the crops that were once irrigated to feed
a nation will dry up and turn to dust. Mass starvation will only take a few months to kick
in/Think North Korea after a season of floods. Perhaps 95% of humanity is just one crop
season away from mass starvation.
61
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
Philip Sutton from Greenleap and David Spratt from Carbon Equity argue that "human
activity has already pushed the planet's climate past several critical 'tipping points',
including the initiation of major ice sheet loss".
They quote US climate scientist James Hansen who warned in 2007 that the loss of 8 million square kilometres of Arctic sea ice now
seems inevitable, and may occur as early as 2010 — a century ahead of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections.
"There is already enough carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere to initiate ice sheet
disintegration in West Antarctica and Greenland and to ensure that sea levels will rise
metres in coming decades", the report's authors say.
"The projected speed of change, with temperature increases greater than 0.3°C per decade
and the consequent rapid shifting of climatic zones will, if maintained, likely result in
most ecosystems failing to adapt, causing the extinction of many animal and plant
species. The oceans will become more acidic, endangering much marine life.
"The Earth's passage into an era of dangerous climate change accelerates as each of these
tipping points is passed. If this acceleration becomes too great, humanity will no longer
have the power to reverse the processes we have set in motion."
The authors conclude mat we can avert this potential disaster, but warn that the science demands that "politics as usual" be rejected.
"The climate crisis will not respond to incremental modification of the business as usual model."
'The sustainability emergency is now not so much a radical idea as simply an
indispensable course of action if we are to return to a safe-climate planet", the authors
conclude.
Cam Walker, spokesperson from FoE, used the report's launch on February 4 to call on the government to urgently review the role of
the Garnaut Climate Change Review which is to make recommendations on carbon emission targets.
Walker criticised the terms of reference for Ross Garnaut, and the government's policy of a 60% cut in emissions by 2050, saying that
global warming of JC would lead to disaster.
"The government is potentially allowing Garnaut to engage in dangerous trade-offs with the lives of many species and many people
rather man setting a safe-climate target", he said.
Walker said the government is behind the times on climate science and urged it to bring James Hansen, head of the US NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Science, and that country's most eminent climate scientist, into the review process "so that the science
was put first rather man last in making climate policy".
Walker said that Hansen warned in December that climate tipping points have already
been passed for large ice sheet disintegration and species loss, and there is already
enough carbon in the Earth's atmosphere for massive ice sheets such as on Greenland to
eventually melt away.
"These impacts are starting to happen at less than one degree of warming, yet the government B effectively planning on allowing
warming to run to 3 degrees", said Walker.
62
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
In, addition, natural forests provide recreation and unique scientific beauty while at the same time serving as
the basis for natural communities that provide life support to organisms (including people). As mentioned,
one vital by-product of plane photosynthetic activity is oxygen, which is essential to human existence. In
addition, forests remove pollutants and odors from the atmosphere. The wilderness is highly effective in
metabolizing many toxic substances. The atmospheric concentration of pollutants over the forest, such as
particulates and sulfur dioxide, are measurably below that of adjacent areas (sec Figure 2.3).
In view of their ecological role in ecosystems, the impact of species extinction may be devastating. The rich
diversity of species and the ecosystems that support them are intimately connected to the long-term sun'ivai
of humankind. As the historic conservationist Aide Leopold stated in 1949, "The outstanding scientific
discovery of the twentieth century is not television or radio, but the complexity of the land organisms... To
keep every cog and wheel is the first precaution of intelligent tinkering,"
An endangered species may have a significant role in its community. Such an organism may control die
structure and functioning of the community through its activities. The sea otter, for example, in relation to
its size, is perhaps the most voracious of all marine mammals. The otter feeds on sea rnollusks, sea urchins,
crabs, and fish. It needs to eat more than 20 percent of its weight every day to provide the necessary energy
to maintain its body tempiraturc in a cold marine habitat. The_exlii)_£liQrL0f such keystone or controller
species from the ecosystem would cause great damage,Jla. extinction could have cascading effects on many
species, even cj^in£j^ondiiQ?j;xiirMiM»
Traditionally, species have always evolved along with their changing environment. As disease organisms
evolve, other organisms may evolve chemical defense mechanisms that confer disease resistance. As the
weather becomes drier, for example, plants may develop smaller, thicker leaves, which lose water slowly.
The environment, however ,Js now developing and changing rapidly, but evolution is stow, requiring
hundreds of thousands of years. ILsQg&£U!£Jll£!££<^^
on Eajth will be greatly reduced; therefore, the potential for_natural adaptation and change also will be
reduced, thus endangering the .diversity of JklureJiurnaaJife-support systems.
63
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
According to the paper, 426 ppm is the permissible exposure over a lifetime. The author says that increasing leVClS 01 CarDOn QlQXlQe,
apart from affecting climate, will have serious toxic effects on humans and other
mammals. Higher carbon dioxide concentration affects health by reducing blood ph
causing difficulty in breathing, rapid pulse rate, headache, hearing loss, sweating and
fatigue. Some studies have also shown possibilities of embryonic or foetal abnormalities
due to increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
A study on health effects of high indoor carbon dioxide concentrations has established
that at 600 ppm, occupants felt stuffy, and above this level, symptoms of poisoning
started to show. At 1,000 ppm. nearly all the occupants were affected.
All these effects were observed with only a transient exposure and not over a lifetime On an average, carbon dioxide levels in offices reach 800-1,200 ppm and up to 2.000 ppm in
overcrowded conference rooms At present, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is about 380
ppm. When it reaches 600 ppm, the Earth will have a permanent outdoor atmosphere
exactly like that of a stuffy room, which life may not adapt to.
64
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
The deaths were due to lung and heart ailments linked to ozone and polluting particles in
the air, which are spurred by carbon dioxide that comes from human activities, according
to the study's author. Mark Jacobson of Stanford University.
As the planet warms due to carbon dioxide emissions, the annual death rate is forecast to
climb, with premature deaths in the United States from human-generated carbon dioxide
expected to hit 1,000 a year when the global temperature has risen by 1.8 degrees F (1
degree C).
When the planet gets that hot, which could happen this century, the world annual death rate is
estimated tO rise tO 21.600. Jacobson said on Friday in a telephone interview.
Earth has warmed about 1.4 degrees F (0.8 degrees C) in the last 150 years, with most of that gain in the last three decades.
Jacobson said about 700 to 800 US annual deaths in the most recent years can be
attributed to human-caused carbon emissions.
Greenhouse gas pollution has spurred the global warming that is result in a damaging rise in the sea level, droughts and possibly more
severe storms this century. This is the first time a scientist has specifically linked one human-
generated greenhouse gas to human mortality.
Carbon dioxide is one of several greenhouse gases blamed for climate change, but it is the one
humans have the most ability to control through regulation of activities that burn fossil
fuels like COal and Oil. It is also emitted by natural processes.
Using a complex computer model and data on carbon emissions from the US
Environmental Protection Agency, Jacobson found the impact was worse in places that
are populous and polluted.
"Of the additional... deaths per year due to ozone and particles ... about 30 percent of
those occurred in California, which has 12 percent of the (US) population," he said,
noting that California has six of the 10 most polluted US cities.
"So it was pretty clear... that climate change was affecting Californians' health disproportionately to its population." Jacobson said.
What happens in California is important, since this populous state has long been a testing
ground for US pollution regulation.
65
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
Immediate Action to change the current main source of energy is crucial to avoid
the a collapse of the economy due to the inevitable oil peak is essential.
Landry 2007
(March 30 2007, Cathy, of the American Petroleum Institute, "GAO warns of peak oil threat to
global economies", pg LEXIS)
World oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. the us Government Accountability
Office said March 29, cautioning that if the phenomenon occurs "soon" and "without warning." it could
cause oil prices to surge to unprecedented levels and result in "severe" economic damage. "The
prospect of a peak in oil production presents problems of global proportions whose consequences
will depend Critically O11 our preparedness." GAO, the nonpartisan investigative arm of Congress, said in a report.
"While these consequences would be felt globally, the United Skates, as the largest consumer of oil
and one of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be especially
vulnerable among the industrialized nations of the world." Despite the threat of peak oil, the US government
currently has no "coordinated or well-defined strategy" to address the uncertainties about the
timing of peak oil or to mitigate its potential effects. For that reason. GAO recommended that
the federal government take immediate action, and suggested that the US energy secretary take
the lead in coordinating a government strategy.
66
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
67
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
The average price of gasoline in the U.S. hit S4 a gallon for the first time Sunday, the latest milestone in a run-up in fuel prices
that is sapping consumer confidence and threatening to nudee the nation into recession.The record nationwide average for
regular-gasoline prices, announced by auto club AAA. follows Friday's near-Si 1 surge in oil prices to a record $138.54 a barrel.
Both are part of what, by some measures, is the worst energy-price shock Americans have faced for a generation, in terms of its
toll on their pocketbooks.In recent days, soaring fuel prices and disappointing employment data have reignited fears that the
nation's economy -- which has taken a pounding over the past year from a housing downturn, credit crunch and weakening job
market -- will slip into recession, or pull back further if a recession is already under way. Rising fuel prices are straining
household budgets, damping the spending that drives more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity."What we're seeing
here is a lot of additional pressure on a consumer sector that was soft to begin with," said Alliance Bernstein economist Joseph
Carson. "Is it a tipping point by itself? It's close."Gasoline prices, which have risen 29% over the past year, have been high for
months, and in some markets, such as Alaska and California, consumers have been paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump for
weeks. But the latest increase at the nationwide level from a previous average of nearly $3.99 a gallon seems likely to deliver at
least a psychological blow to many Americans.The current drain on consumers' income from rising fuel prices is-greater than it
was during most of the worst energy-price run-ups of the past. Spending on fuel as a share of wage income has shot above 6%.
That exceeds the percentage seen during the 1974-75 and 1990-91 oil-price shocks and approaches the 7% to 8% seen during the
1980-81 price surge, according to Mr. Carson.Comparing the rise in fuel spending to income growth, which has been especially
weak in recent years, the current shock is far worse than anv of the three prior ones, he said."It's just gotten out of hand." said 53-
year-old Yvonne Brune of Des Moincs. Iowa, referring to the rising cost of gasoline. Because of higher gasoline prices. Ms.
Brune. who works for a printing company doing marketing on weekdays and separately as a bridal consultant on nights and
weekends, no longer makes the drive home at lunchtime - a 30-mile round trip - to spend time with her dogs. Because of rising
airfares, she has canceled plans for a trip to Texas to visit relatives. "I think the airlines are going to see their industry implode
because people are going to stop flying," she said.Some economists hold out hope the current oil-price surge won't be as
devastating as some in the past. For one thing, consumers and businesses are far more fuel-efficient today than they were during
the oil shock of the mid-1970s, requiring half as much energy to produce a unit of economic output.Interest rates also are far
lower than they were then, and the Federal Reserve is expected to hold its interest-rate target steady at 2% for much of this year.
The dollar's weakness, meanwhile, is raising overseas demand for American products, and growth in exports is a key reason why
the U.S. economy has continued to expand -- albeit slowly ~ over the past six months.Most important, consumers have shown
surprising resilience over the past five years, despite continued surges in their fuel costs. "While it certainly makes it tougher for
the economy for the next few quarters, I still believe consumers can adapt," said Peter Kretzmer, a Bank of America
economist.Still, as gasoline prices climb, they eat up money that consumers might otherwise spend on appliances or movie tickets
or vacations. That could force businesses, hit bv weaker consumer demand and an increase in their own costs, to pare operations
and cut more jobs in an already weak labor market. The government reported Friday that the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5%
in Mav from 5% in April as employers shed 49.000 jobs last month — a fifth-straight monthly decline.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
69
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
70
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
Global demand for energy is at an all time high. Oil can't handle it, and politicians need
to make people less dependant on oil.
Dallas Morning News 2008
(June 22 2008, "Energy crisis turns globalism to localism", pg online @
http://www2.lj world.com/news/2008/jun/22/energy_crisis_turns_globalism_localism/)
Cheap, abundant and accessible fossil fuels allowed us to create a world in which we are relatively unconstrained
by geography. That era is passing into history, and it is not likely this process can be reversed. There
is simply not enough oil being extracted quickly or inexpensively enough to meet global demand
- nor, in all likelihood, will there be again. This is called peak oil. Last week, economic analysts said
Americans have never before spent a greater portion of their income on energy costs. The sooner
we come to terms with this reality, the sooner we can begin taking serious steps to adapt. By this
fall, chances are John McCain and Barack Obama will be talking more about energy than any other issue. They'll have to. That
would be a real change from now. Peak oil is a far more urgent crisis than climate change, yet its economic and social effects are
not even on the candidates' agendas. Every petroleum-dependent aspect of Our economy, from the far-flung
distribution systems for consumer goods to the daily commute, will be difficult to SUStain. The Only question JS
how soon it will happen and how traumatic the transition will be. National, state and local politicians
would be smart to approach it with a series of policy proposals based on the concept of
rciocaiization. it's the idea that in a world of costly energy, most economic and social activity will of
necessity, be local. A comprehensive domestic energy policy should be geared toward helping
regions, cities and neighborhoods depend as little as possible on petroleum.
71
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
72
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
73
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
More Evidence
Discover 2008
(April 25 2008, "Is Nuclear Energy Our Best Hope?", pg online @
http://discovermagazine.com/2008/may/02-is-nuclear-energy-our-best-hope)
America's electricity demand is expected to increase by almost 50 percent bv 2030. according to
the Department of Energy. Unfortunately, renewable energy sources, such as the wind and sun,
are highly unlikely to meet that need. Wind and solar installations today supply less than 1
percent of electricity in the United States, do so intermittently, and are decades away from
providing more than a small boost to the electric grid. "To meet the 2005 U.S. electricity demand
of about 4 million megawatt-hours with around-the-clock wind would have required wind farms
Covering Over 780.000 Square kilometers." Ausubel notes. For context, 780,000 square kilometers (301,000 square
miles) is greater than the area of Texas. Solar power fares badly too, in Ausubel's analysis: "The amount
of energy generated in [one quart] of the core of a nuclear reactor requires [2.5 acres] of solar
cells." Geothermal power also is decades away from making a significant contribution to
America's electricity budget.
74
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
-Chances are, the electric grid of the future will look a lot like the grid of today. But certainly it
won't behave the same as today's grid, whether it undergoes a massive overhaul,
incremental upgrades or is left unchanged.
Like the industries that comprise it, the grid is a dynamic and complex construct linking power
generators, substations and transmission lines across continents. It's antiquated, inefficient and
dumb, hampered by half-century-old technologies that can't communicate and a quagmire of regulatory and
free enterprise pressures. It's too valuable to ignore, and too expensive to replace.
"Electricity is the key fabric of the economy." said Dan Rastler, a technical leader with
the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), a nonprofit energy research consortium that promotes
science and technology. "There's a real need to get the industry as well as stakeholders on
track."
75
Nuclear Energy Affirmative
Deliberate attacks on grid infrastructure can cripple nations' economies and undermine
their stability.
The grid became a frequent victim of war in Chechnya, where Chechen rebels and Russian troops have
fought off and on since the mid-1990s.
In Iraq, guerrillas continue to attack power lines and towers in an effort to impede recovery and foster
unrest. The grid is often cited as a vulnerable target for terrorism in the United States and in other
developed nations, particularly after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks in New York City, Washington, D.C., and
Pennsylvania.
Garden-variety outages from storms and other causes sap $119 billion from the U.S.
economy every year, according to an analysis by the EPRI. The nation lost between $4
billion and $10 billion when a blackout shut down parts of the East and Midwest last
August.
Canada, which also went dark in the cascading outage, estimated that its gross domestic product declined
0.7 percent that month.
Most energy experts agree that making the grid less vulnerable to intentional and natural
assaults, and more resilient when such assaults do occur, is critical. They see wholesale
change as prohibitively expensive, risky and impractical.
Instead, they advocate improving the grid internally with technologies such as sensors
linked to networks. They advocate reducing its burden externally through smart
appliances and back-up energy sources.
"We're not going to rip out the entire infrastructure," said John Del Monaco, manager of emerging
technologies and transfer at Public Service Electric & Gas (PSE&G) in New Jersey.
PSE&G initiated a program to use MEMS-based acoustic sensors to monitor transformers, and is
developing similar technologies for cables and power lines. "You overlay on top of what you already have,"
said Del Monaco.
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Nuclear Energy Affirmative
New technologies aren't enough on their own; they need to complement and be
compatible with both the existing grid and the grid of the future, said T.J. Glauthier, president
and chief executive of the Electricity Innovation Institute (E2I).
An affiliate of EPRI. E2I is charged with orchestrating the coordinated integration of next
generation technologies. This year it offered $500.000 in grants to researchers developing
nanotechnologies for electric power systems.
"What we need to really have is functionality, but we need to apply it in an evolutionary way," Glauthier
said. "We need to find companies that will be able to replace and upgrade where there is the most
congestion and demand. We're looking for ways to help ease that burden."
Fixing the grid from within would likely require giving it nerves in the form of remote sensors that track its
health, a network for collecting and distributing the data and a brain for interpreting and perhaps even
acting on the information. But making such a "smart grid" would require engineers to design
around high temperatures, strong electromagnetic forces and other difficult conditions.
About four years ago, PSE&G technology consultant Harry Roman and colleagues at the
New Jersey Institute of Technology decided to tackle the first challenge: the nerves. They
proposed developing a MEMS acoustic sensor to monitor transformers, using sound
rather than electrical signals to inspect the innards of the transformer.
In theory, sensors would track the telltale sounds of sparks that are emitted when the insulating oil within
the transformer wears down or becomes contaminated. Early detection could allow utilities to avoid power
failures or costly fires.
Developing the sensor hardware proved to be the easier part of the equation, Roman said. Once the project
was underway, he discovered that the oil's temperature affected the sound of arcing. The team had to
develop software that accounted for that relationship before it could get an accurate read on the
transformer's inner workings.
The sensors have progressed from lab-based tests to a mockup placed on a pole-mounted
transformer, to this year's challenge: several months of trials in a small oil tank.
Roman said "realistic implementation" is about two to four years away. In the meantime, he is
developing similar sensors for gauging the motion of underground cables to detect mechanical stresses, and
temperature sensors to monitor transmission lines.
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