Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
July 9, 2012
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open in the red tracing SGX Nifty and Asian
stocks which are trading lower in the opening trade. Asian stocks fell for a third day
amid concerns regarding slowing Chinese growth and disappointing data which
showed Japanese machinery orders fell more than expected following a
disappointing U.S. jobs report.
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.1)
Nifty
(0.2) (10.35)
(17.6) 17,521
5,316
MID CAP
(0.6)
(35.4)
6,314
SMALL CAP
(0.2)
(14.0)
6,823
The US markets saw significant weakness during trading on Friday. The sell-off on
Wall Street came on the heels of the release of the Labor Department's report on
U.S. employment in the month of June. While the report showed a continued
increase in employment, the pace of job growth fell well short of economist
estimates. The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment rose by
80,000 jobs in June compared to economist estimates for an increase of about
100,000 jobs. Despite the continued job growth during the month, the
unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.2 percent, in line with economist
estimates.
BSE HC
(0.0)
(0.4)
6,942
BSE PSU
(0.3)
(24.5)
7,377
BANKEX
0.2
Dow Jones
(1.0) (124.2) 12,772
Meanwhile, Indian markets traded subdued on Friday in line with a weak trend
across Asia as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi sounded dovish and
didn't hint at any liquidity boosts or non-standard measures to combat the debt
crisis.
NASDAQ
(1.3)
(38.8)
2,937
FTSE
(0.5)
(30.0)
5,663
Nikkei
(0.7)
(59.1)
9,021
Hang Seng
(0.0)
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,500 / 5,311 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 17,575 17,629 / 5,334 5,350 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
17,500 / 5,311 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
17,446 17,371 / 5,294 5,271 levels.
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
17,371
17,446
17,500
17,575
17,629
NIFTY
5,271
5,294
5,311
5,334
5,350
News Analysis
ONGC to sell 35% stake in CBM blocks

Mahindra and Mahindra rolls out utility vehicles in Kenya
21.8 12,265
AUTO
(0.5)
METAL
(1.1) (120.7) 11,002
OIL & GAS
(0.4)
(28.5)
8,061
BSE IT
(0.8)
(45.2)
5,655
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
(42.9)
9,488
(8.5) 19,801
Straits Times
0.2
7.1
2,979
Shanghai Com
1.0
22.2
2,224
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
(2.3)
(1.0)
$43.6
WIT
(2.4)
(0.2)
$8.7
IBN
0.2
0.1
$33.5
(0.7)
(0.3)
$33.4
Indian ADRs
HDB
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,348
573
Declines
1,580
898
86
64
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Volumes (` cr)
Net Inflows (July 5, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
2,185
1,884
301
5,212
47,291
573
593
(20)
(488)
(6,706)
MFs
FII Derivatives (July 5, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
938
814
124
13,929
Stock Futures
963
1,318
(355)
24,940
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
IFCI
41
2.9
Company
Shree Cement
Suzlon Energy
20
2.6
Wockhardt
Price (`)
chg (%)
2,922
(4.3)
885
(3.5)
Chambal Fert
81
2.4
Jet Air India
385
(3.5)
United Spirits
758
2.3
Indraprastha Gas
242
(3.2)
Dish TV India
71
2.2
Jindal Steel
455
(3.2)
www.angelbroking.com
BSE
2,111
NSE
9,782
Market Outlook
July 9, 2012
ONGC to sell 35% stake in CBM blocks

Media reports have indicated that ONGC is expected to sell 35% stake in its Coal
Bed Methane (CBM) blocks. However, there is no clarity on the price at which sale
is expected to take place. ONGC has four CBM blocks in Jharia, Bokaro and
Karanpura. It's Jharia block produces around 8-10,000mmscmd of gas. The capex
spent on all these blocks by the company is `510cr. Until further clarity, we
maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `321.
Mahindra and Mahindra rolls out utility vehicles in Kenya

Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) introduced its range of utility vehicles, including the
recently launched XUV5OO in Kenya as it forayed into the passenger vehicle
segment in Kenya. The vehicles include sports utility vehicles and pick-up range,
Genio and Maxximo. MM is already selling tractors in the country through
Timsales, a part of the Rai Group. MM has appointed Simba Corporation as its
exclusive dealer for the passenger vehicle segment in Kenya. The exclusive dealer
will trade under Xylon Motors and it will offer full range of MM vehicles as well as
provide servicing facilities, testing and an after sales department supplying parts
and accessories. We see this as a positive development for MM which will enable
the company to ramp up its exports in the long term. At `731, the stock is trading
at 13.7x FY2014E earnings. We maintain Accumulate rating on the stock with
SOTP based target price of `824.
Economic and Political News
Growth rate of 9% in next 5 yrs not possible: Montek

Govt. gives state-run oil retailers `14,000cr as subsidy
India for peaceful resolution of South China sea dispute
New banks need of the hour: C Rangarajan
Corporate News
Kingfisher starts paying Feb salaries to staff

Nokia launches cheapest Lumia phone at `12,999
No lucrative salary hike this year: Mahindra Satyam
Cairn India seeks extension of Rajasthan block contract
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
July 09, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
July 10, 2012
IndusInd Bank
July 11, 2012
HDFC, Cera Sanitaryware Ltd
July 12, 2012
TCS, Infosys
July 13, 2012
HDFC Bank, Sintex
July 14, 2012

July 15, 2012
Mindtree
July 16, 2012
Exide Industries, South Ind.Bank
July 17, 2012
Axis Bank
July 18, 2012
Bajaj Auto, Infotech Enterprises
July 19, 2012
Kotak Mah. Bank, Dr Reddy's, Persistent, Tata Sponge
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
July 09, 2012
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.20
2.30
July 10, 2012
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
May
(1.00)
(2.10)
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
15.30
10.60
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jul 7
374.00
370.00
India
% Change
May
0.10
--
% Change
Jun
7.55
--
US
Industrial Production YoY

Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Jun
(1.00)
(0.40)
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
9.60
9.80
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
8.10
7.70
July 16, 2012
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
July 17, 2012
UK
CPI (YoY)
US
Industrial Production
US
July 12, 2012
July 13, 2012
India
Jun
2.40
--
% Change
Jun
2.80
--
Jun
(0.09)
0.30
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jun
(0.30)
--
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jun
708.00
745.00
US
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
784.00
775.00
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jun
8.10
--
July 19, 2012
US
Millions
Jun
4.55
4.65
July 23, 2012
Euro Zone
Value
Jul A
(19.80)
--
July 24, 2012
Germany
Existing home sales

Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
PMI Services
Value
Jul A
49.90
--
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul A
45.00
--
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q A
(0.20)
--
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
369.00
--
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q A
1.90
--
July 18, 2012
July 25, 2012
July 27, 2012
Market Strategy
July 9, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
(%)
(6.0)
9.4
9.8
10.0
Mar-12
0.1
Feb-12
(4.0)
(3.2)
(5.0)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.9
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
7.7
8.0
6.9
7.4
7.7
7.2
7.6
56.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
CRR
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Reverse Repo rate
Oct-11
Repo rate
Jun-11
May-12
Apr-12
4.00
Mar-12
0.0
Feb-12
5.00
Jan-12
15.0
Dec-11
6.00
Nov-11
30.0
Oct-11
7.00
Sep-11
45.0
Aug-11
8.00
Jul-11
60.0
Jun-11
(%)
9.00
Sep-11
Imports yoy growth
Aug-11
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
75.0
Jul-11
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
Jun-11
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
48.0
Oct-11
0.0
Sep-11
50.0
Aug-11
2.0
Jul-11
52.0
Jun-11
4.0
Aug-11
54.0
6.0
(15.0)
1.0
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
9.5
2.7
2.5
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

12.0
4.1
3.4
Jan-12
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
(2.0)
3QFY10
3.0
2QFY10
1QFY10
4.0
4QFY09
2.0
Source: CSO, Angel Research
3.7
4.0
Dec-11
5.3
5.0
10.0
6.0
Nov-11
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.0
6.1
Apr-12
8.0
6.7
Oct-11
7.4
Jul-11
7.0
9.5
10.0
8.0
Sep-11
7.5
8.0
8.2
7.6
Aug-11
8.5
9.0
12.0
9.2
Jul-11
9.4
Jun-11
9.8
May-11
(%)
10.0
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Market Outlook
July 09, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
138
2,688
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
19.7
17.3
4.2
3.6
22.8
22.3
1.9
1.6
United Phosphorus
Buy
126
183
5,790
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
7.3
6.9
1.2
1.0
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
306
345
2,611
2,715
3,041
15.3
15.3
29.2
32.8
10.5
9.3
2.4
2.0
26.0
23.3
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Buy
82
100
4,120
13,699
15,184
10.5
10.2
12.1
13.3
6.8
6.1
1.2
1.1
19.7
18.4
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
26
33
6,825
14,798
16,687
9.6
9.6
2.4
3.0
10.6
8.6
2.1
1.8
14.8
16.5
0.5
0.5
Automotive Axle
Buy
444
514
671
1,211
1,387
12.1
11.7
50.3
57.1
8.8
7.8
2.2
1.8
27.8
25.7
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,540
1,787
44,550
21,665
24,334
18.6
18.4
111.7
123.2
13.8
12.5
5.4
4.3
43.8
38.5
1.6
1.4
Bharat Forge
Buy
312
372
7,263
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
14.0
11.7
2.7
2.3
21.0
21.0
1.1
0.9
Bosch India
Neutral
8,959
28,132
9,106
10,255
19.4
19.3
410.2
460.3
21.8
19.5
4.8
4.0
22.1
20.4
2.7
2.4
CEAT
Buy
101
164
347
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.6
2.5
0.4
0.4
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Accumulate
136
146
11,594
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
19.2
15.2
3.4
2.9
18.6
20.3
1.7
1.4
FAG Bearings
Neutral
1,519
2,525
1,492
1,703
18.8
18.5
115.3
129.8
13.2
11.7
2.8
2.3
23.5
21.6
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Buy
2,085
2,473
41,628
25,970
29,772
15.0
15.5
139.7
154.5
14.9
13.5
7.0
5.3
54.7
44.9
1.3
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
102
135
419
7,950
8,904
5.5
6.0
25.1
38.6
4.1
2.7
0.5
0.4
12.1
16.4
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

Maruti
Accumulate
Motherson Sumi
Buy
Subros
Neutral
Tata Motors
Buy
TVS Motor
Accumulate
731
824
44,888
35,881
40,746
10.0
10.0
47.5
53.2
15.4
13.7
3.1
2.6
21.3
20.5
1.0
0.8
1,217
1,364
35,152
39,959
46,670
6.0
7.0
71.4
90.9
17.1
13.4
2.1
1.8
12.8
14.4
0.7
0.6
165
216
6,482
23,342
26,366
7.8
8.2
13.3
18.0
12.4
9.2
3.0
2.4
26.2
28.4
0.5
0.4
35
210
1,244
1,402
8.4
8.3
4.5
5.1
7.8
6.9
0.8
0.7
9.9
11.0
0.4
0.4
241
305
64,109 191,303 211,004
13.0
12.9
40.7
43.8
5.9
5.5
2.0
1.7
36.0
33.1
0.4
0.4
37
42
1,739
7,442
8,198
6.2
6.1
4.8
5.2
7.7
7.0
1.3
1.2
18.2
17.9
0.2
0.2
Capital Goods
ABB*
Sell
795
498
16,851
8,760
10,023
7.6
7.5
18.2
20.7
43.6
38.3
5.9
5.3
14.4
14.6
1.9
1.6
BGR Energy
Neutral
311
2,245
4,195
4,837
11.0
11.0
30.1
32.4
10.3
9.6
1.8
1.6
18.4
17.6
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
236
57,812
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
10.0
9.8
2.0
1.7
21.3
18.9
1.1
1.1
Blue Star
Neutral
185
1,664
3,047
3,328
5.4
6.9
9.6
16.2
19.3
11.4
3.8
3.1
20.7
29.7
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
131
142
8,426
12,451
14,265
7.9
8.3
8.0
9.5
16.5
13.9
2.2
2.0
13.9
14.9
0.7
0.6
Jyoti Structures
Buy
44
67
363
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
4.1
3.3
0.5
0.5
13.7
14.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
60
73
1,535
6,686
7,200
8.5
8.8
10.6
12.2
5.7
4.9
1.1
0.9
25.9
24.0
0.4
0.4
LMW
Buy
1,704
1,992
1,919
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
11.9
10.3
2.0
1.8
17.4
18.4
0.3
0.2
Thermax
Neutral
489
5,826
5,514
5,559
9.8
9.6
29.7
28.4
16.5
17.2
3.1
2.8
20.2
16.9
0.9
0.9
Market Outlook
July 09, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,296
24,331
11,096
12,607
21.0
21.7
76.1
82.9
17.0
15.6
3.2
2.9
19.3
19.3
1.9
1.6
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
173
26,595
10,205
11,659
24.6
24.2
10.8
12.0
16.0
14.4
3.3
3.0
19.7
19.8
2.2
1.8
India Cements
Neutral
87
2,668
4,364
4,791
18.9
19.1
9.2
11.4
9.4
7.6
0.7
0.7
8.0
9.5
0.5
0.5
J K Lakshmi Cements
Neutral
82
1,005
1,938
2,246
19.1
20.1
15.2
16.8
5.4
4.9
0.7
0.7
13.8
14.0
0.7
1.0
Madras Cements
Neutral
156
3,702
3,444
3,786
25.5
24.9
14.6
17.1
10.7
9.1
1.6
1.4
15.6
16.0
1.7
1.4
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,942
10,248
5,519
6,293
24.5
23.7
156.6
225.3
18.8
13.1
4.7
4.0
22.3
26.0
1.6
1.2
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,541
42,236
20,099
22,642
21.7
22.9
89.6
104.7
17.2
14.7
2.8
2.5
17.7
17.9
1.9
1.8
227
273
1,192
2,014
2,293
22.4
22.4
22.6
26.7
10.0
8.5
1.1
1.0
11.4
11.9
2.4
2.7
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
15
285
2,489
2,755
7.0
7.8
3.0
4.0
5.2
3.9
0.4
0.4
8.7
10.8
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
21
1,292
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(11.9)
(27.3)
1.2
1.4
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
137
166
4,553
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
9.1
8.1
1.4
1.2
16.1
15.8
2.8
2.6
ITNL
Buy
185
265
3,592
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.9
27.8
8.1
6.7
1.2
1.0
15.5
16.4
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
53
61
1,415
5,510
6,722
8.8
9.0
2.5
4.6
20.9
11.6
0.7
0.7
3.4
5.8
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Accumulate
77
88
16,416
15,259
17,502
25.7
24.7
4.2
5.0
18.2
15.4
1.5
1.4
8.5
9.3
2.4
2.1
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,406
1,553
86,138
59,559
69,089
12.1
11.5
78.4
85.2
17.9
16.5
3.0
2.6
16.1
15.3
1.6
1.4
Madhucon Proj
Buy
40
56
297
2,206
2,502
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.7
8.7
8.6
0.4
0.4
5.2
5.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
43
1,110
5,453
6,169
8.1
8.5
1.6
1.9
26.3
22.4
0.5
0.5
1.8
2.1
0.6
0.7
Patel Engg.
Neutral
99
693
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
7.1
6.8
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
56
1,855
11,592
12,993
8.4
8.4
1.8
3.2
31.0
17.5
0.6
0.6
2.0
3.4
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
141
182
2,115
2,789
3,147
10.6
10.7
8.4
10.4
16.7
13.5
2.3
2.0
15.0
15.6
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Accumulate
231
265
1,143
6,732
7,837
8.1
8.4
23.5
29.4
9.8
7.9
0.9
0.8
9.6
11.0
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
151
7,550
7,467
8,685
3.2
3.3
37.5
41.5
4.0
3.6
0.7
0.6
18.1
17.4
Andhra Bank
Reduce
118
107
6,600
5,225
6,024
3.3
3.3
22.7
25.4
5.2
4.7
0.8
0.7
16.0
15.8
Axis Bank
Buy
1,038
1,489
42,985
16,488
20,297
3.2
3.3
118.4
145.2
8.8
7.2
1.6
1.4
20.3
21.1
Bank of Baroda
Buy
726
921
28,411
16,157
19,475
2.7
2.7
123.7
148.3
5.9
4.9
1.0
0.8
17.3
18.1
Bank of India
Accumulate
352
388
20,203
13,657
15,902
2.5
2.6
59.5
70.6
5.9
5.0
0.9
0.8
16.2
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Neutral
Canara Bank
Buy
Central Bank
Reduce
Financials
50
2,963
3,506
3,925
3.2
3.2
10.2
11.9
4.9
4.2
0.7
0.6
15.3
15.8
426
492
18,856
12,296
14,445
2.4
2.5
81.5
92.2
5.2
4.6
0.8
0.7
16.4
16.3
83
72
6,136
7,001
8,211
2.5
2.6
14.0
20.6
6.0
4.1
0.9
0.8
11.0
14.5
Market Outlook
July 09, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
430
465
6,367
5,294
6,070
2.3
2.3
106.3
110.1
4.0
3.9
0.7
0.6
17.7
16.2
Dena Bank
Neutral
102
3,583
3,170
3,577
2.9
2.9
22.8
25.3
4.5
4.0
0.7
0.6
17.2
16.6
Federal Bank
Neutral
451
7,712
2,736
3,165
3.4
3.4
49.3
57.4
9.2
7.9
1.2
1.1
13.9
14.5
HDFC
Neutral
684
101,813
7,372
8,812
3.6
3.5
31.5
37.7
21.7
18.1
4.3
3.9
34.8
32.1
HDFC Bank
Neutral
583
137,421
22,076
27,921
4.3
4.4
28.7
35.8
20.4
16.3
3.9
3.3
20.7
21.9
ICICI Bank
Buy
935
1,169
107,491
22,368
26,857
2.8
2.9
68.2
80.4
13.7
11.6
1.7
1.5
14.2
15.4
IDBI Bank
Buy
Indian Bank
Neutral
IOB
Accumulate
J & K Bank
98
113
12,496
8,152
9,907
1.9
2.1
19.7
24.1
5.0
4.1
0.7
0.6
13.6
15.0
190
8,181
6,417
7,292
3.5
3.5
40.2
43.1
4.7
4.4
0.8
0.7
17.9
16.9
86
91
6,870
7,578
8,662
2.6
2.7
17.2
22.5
5.0
3.8
0.6
0.5
12.1
14.3
Neutral
963
4,669
2,525
2,858
3.5
3.5
175.8
183.1
5.5
5.3
1.0
0.9
19.3
17.5
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
268
286
13,515
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
11.0
8.8
2.0
1.7
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Neutral
261
7,603
6,497
7,533
2.8
2.8
53.4
63.9
4.9
4.1
0.7
0.6
13.3
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
841
1,050
28,523
20,142
23,929
3.2
3.3
153.3
174.3
5.5
4.8
1.0
0.8
18.3
18.0
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
25
2,860
1,447
1,664
2.8
2.7
3.8
4.1
6.7
6.2
1.2
1.1
19.5
18.2
St Bk of India
Accumulate
2,218
2,443
148,838
67,783
78,208
3.7
3.6
226.0
264.2
9.8
8.4
1.6
1.4
17.7
18.1
Syndicate Bank
Accumulate
109
118
6,570
7,176
8,299
3.1
3.1
25.1
29.1
4.3
3.8
0.7
0.6
17.6
17.8
UCO Bank
Reduce
82
71
5,444
5,642
6,438
2.5
2.5
16.4
17.6
5.0
4.7
0.9
0.8
16.2
15.4
Union Bank
Buy
212
256
11,672
10,623
12,404
3.0
3.0
42.5
49.6
5.0
4.3
0.8
0.7
16.9
17.2
United Bank
Buy
64
78
2,298
3,599
4,212
2.8
3.0
18.2
22.3
3.5
2.9
0.5
0.5
15.0
16.2
Vijaya Bank
Reduce
60
52
2,996
2,695
3,097
2.2
2.3
9.6
12.0
6.3
5.0
0.8
0.7
12.0
13.6
Yes Bank
Buy
361
454
12,760
3,250
4,261
2.8
2.9
34.1
42.8
10.6
8.4
2.2
1.8
23.2
23.9
3,713
35,617
11,423
13,309
16.3
16.3
125.3
148.4
29.6
25.0
10.1
7.9
38.0
35.4
3.0
2.6
532
633
6,351
5,835
6,824
6.3
6.7
20.7
27.5
25.7
19.3
10.0
7.5
42.7
44.3
1.1
0.9
1,167
15,868
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
38.2
43.8
30.5
26.7
36.3
28.6
130.2
119.9
5.1
4.5
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
115
20,017
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
27.7
23.4
10.0
8.2
39.3
42.0
3.4
2.9
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,665
11,206
3,124
3,663
17.1
17.6
103.0
123.3
25.9
21.6
8.0
6.4
34.0
32.9
3.3
2.7
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
571
19,431
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
25.0
21.0
6.9
5.6
31.3
38.4
3.4
2.9
HUL
Neutral
445
96,243
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
31.5
27.2
23.6
18.4
82.7
76.2
3.6
3.1
ITC
Neutral
253
197,572
29,588
34,063
35.4
35.8
9.3
10.9
27.1
23.2
8.7
7.1
35.2
33.8
6.4
5.5
Market Outlook
July 09, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
184
11,846
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
27.7
22.6
7.4
5.8
30.0
28.8
2.6
2.1
Nestle*
Neutral
4,436
42,770
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
114.4
143.0
38.8
31.0
23.4
16.1
71.1
61.4
4.9
4.0
Tata Global
Buy
118
136
7,285
7,011
7,711
9.7
10.0
6.3
7.5
18.8
15.8
1.8
1.7
9.5
10.9
0.9
0.9
HCL Tech
Accumulate
490
562
33,959
24,029
26,633
18.3
17.2
39.6
43.2
12.4
11.3
2.8
2.4
22.9
21.0
1.4
1.2
Hexaware
Accumulate
121
132
3,578
1,921
2,178
20.6
20.0
10.4
11.4
11.6
10.6
2.8
2.4
24.7
23.4
1.6
1.3
Infosys
Accumulate
2,444
2,747
140,333
39,364
42,981
32.2
30.5
161.6
171.7
15.1
14.2
3.5
2.9
22.9
20.5
2.9
2.6
Infotech Enterprises
Neutral
172
1,919
1,825
2,008
17.5
17.1
16.9
18.7
10.2
9.2
1.4
1.2
13.7
13.3
0.7
0.6
KPIT Cummins
Neutral
122
2,170
2,145
2,316
16.0
14.8
9.9
11.3
12.3
10.8
2.4
2.0
20.8
19.1
1.0
0.9
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
82
87
9,591
7,492
8,038
17.0
16.3
8.1
8.3
10.0
9.8
1.4
1.2
14.1
12.6
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Accumulate
663
710
2,696
2,324
2,533
18.3
16.9
62.4
64.5
10.6
10.3
2.2
1.8
21.2
18.0
1.0
0.8
Mphasis
Neutral
382
8,033
5,704
6,009
18.6
17.7
36.0
37.1
10.6
10.3
1.5
1.3
14.0
12.6
0.9
0.8
NIIT
Buy
44
52
722
1,162
1,304
14.8
15.1
7.1
8.8
6.2
5.0
1.0
0.9
16.7
18.4
0.5
0.3
Persistent
Neutral
385
1,539
1,187
1,274
26.7
26.0
34.5
42.6
11.2
9.0
1.6
1.4
14.4
15.4
1.0
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,246
243,909
60,787
68,558
30.1
29.2
65.5
73.6
19.0
16.9
6.0
4.8
31.3
28.2
3.8
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Neutral
722
9,209
6,282
6,477
17.5
16.5
82.9
85.0
8.7
8.5
1.9
1.6
21.6
18.4
1.4
1.3
Wipro
Buy
392
451
96,461
44,597
49,033
20.3
20.5
26.6
30.1
14.8
13.0
2.9
2.5
19.5
18.9
1.8
1.5
D B Corp
Buy
204
269
3,737
1,638
1,851
25.8
26.6
13.5
16.1
15.1
12.7
3.4
2.8
23.9
24.2
2.2
1.9
HT Media
Buy
101
148
2,363
2,224
2,509
16.6
17.2
8.6
10.8
11.7
9.3
1.4
1.3
12.9
14.3
0.7
0.5
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
87
125
2,744
1,521
1,698
22.6
23.1
6.2
6.4
14.1
13.5
3.4
3.0
20.7
23.9
2.1
1.8
PVR
Neutral
166
430
625
732
16.5
15.7
11.9
13.3
13.9
12.5
1.4
1.2
11.9
12.0
1.1
0.9
Sun TV Network
Neutral
314
12,357
2,002
2,296
77.1
76.7
18.9
22.1
16.6
14.2
4.3
3.7
27.7
28.3
5.6
4.7
Bhushan Steel
Reduce
475
429
10,079
11,408
13,773
31.0
30.0
53.7
60.8
8.8
7.8
1.3
1.1
15.3
14.9
2.6
2.2
Coal India
Neutral
351
221,957
68,841
74,509
25.3
25.3
24.1
26.1
14.6
13.5
4.0
3.3
30.4
26.8
2.3
2.0
Electrosteel Castings
Accumulate
21
22
721
1,984
2,074
11.2
12.6
2.0
2.7
10.2
7.7
0.4
0.2
4.2
5.5
0.5
0.5
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
125
139
52,647
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
8.4
7.5
1.6
1.4
21.2
19.9
2.3
1.7
Hindalco
Neutral
124
23,750
83,212
91,057
9.0
9.9
13.7
18.1
9.1
6.9
0.7
0.6
7.9
9.6
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
715
15,953
39,592
44,910
18.0
17.7
74.7
88.9
9.6
8.0
0.9
0.8
10.7
11.6
0.8
0.7
MOIL
Neutral
284
4,777
1,007
1,091
56.6
56.9
29.4
31.9
9.7
8.9
1.7
1.5
19.0
18.2
2.5
2.1
Monnet Ispat
Accumulate
389
447
2,504
3,115
3,748
22.1
25.1
59.1
66.8
6.6
5.8
0.9
0.8
15.6
15.3
1.5
1.2
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
July 09, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
62
54
15,953
8,474
9,024
12.6
16.2
2.6
3.6
24.2
17.3
1.3
1.3
5.6
7.5
1.4
1.4
NMDC
Reduce
197
187
77,986
11,959
13,062
78.2
78.6
19.1
20.9
10.3
9.4
2.5
2.1
27.1
24.4
4.4
3.8
SAIL
Neutral
94
38,889
50,914
60,785
14.6
15.1
9.4
10.5
10.0
9.0
0.9
0.8
9.2
9.6
1.2
1.1
Sesa Goa
Neutral
198
17,208
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.5
4.5
1.0
0.8
23.5
19.5
0.5
0.2
Sterlite Inds
Accumulate
108
123
36,143
45,294
48,059
25.7
25.3
16.5
18.0
6.5
6.0
0.7
0.6
12.0
11.2
0.5
0.4
Tata Steel
Accumulate
447
499
43,457 143,088 148,011
10.9
12.1
53.9
66.0
8.3
6.8
1.0
0.9
12.2
13.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Buy
315
372
60,146
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.2
6.5
1.0
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.7
2.0
GAIL
Neutral
357
45,266
50,472
55,502
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
10.1
9.6
1.8
1.6
19.0
17.2
0.1
ONGC
Buy
279
321
238,399 156,331 159,043
37.7
36.3
31.3
32.6
8.9
8.6
1.6
1.4
18.7
17.3
1.2
1.1
Reliance Industries
Neutral
734
240,450 316,404 319,119
11.2
12.0
63.5
68.7
11.6
10.7
1.2
1.1
11.7
11.4
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
57
91
1,077
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
8.7
6.3
2.1
1.6
27.5
29.2
0.9
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
116
156
3,364
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
11.8
12.6
9.8
9.2
1.0
0.4
11.4
10.9
0.8
0.7
Aventis*
Neutral
2,176
5,011
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
22.9
20.9
4.1
3.2
18.6
17.0
3.2
2.7
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
767
953
15,710
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
37.6
47.7
20.4
16.1
4.6
3.7
26.8
27.5
2.5
2.0
Cipla
Buy
328
379
26,328
7,687
8,804
21.4
21.4
16.5
18.9
19.9
17.4
3.1
2.7
16.7
16.8
3.4
2.9
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,633
27,709
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
19.5
17.6
4.0
3.4
22.4
21.0
2.7
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Buy
66
92
534
1,280
1,536
17.8
17.8
9.2
11.3
7.2
5.9
0.5
0.5
7.7
8.5
1.1
0.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,022
17,127
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.6
24.5
7.6
6.7
30.8
29.0
5.5
4.8
Indoco Remedies
Buy
56
82
515
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
7.6
6.3
1.1
1.0
15.9
16.3
0.9
0.8
Ipca labs
Buy
367
435
4,634
2,850
3,474
20.3
20.3
31.9
36.3
11.5
10.1
3.5
2.8
26.2
26.8
1.8
1.5
Lupin
Buy
547
647
24,422
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
27.4
32.4
20.0
16.9
4.8
3.8
27.0
25.2
2.8
2.3
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
125
178
883
2,117
2,434
17.7
17.7
16.7
22.2
7.5
5.7
0.7
0.6
9.5
11.5
1.1
0.9
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
505
21,319
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
35.7
29.8
14.2
17.0
5.3
4.3
43.1
28.1
1.8
1.7
Sun Pharma
Neutral
635
65,353
9,272
11,080
38.6
38.0
22.7
22.6
28.0
28.1
4.7
4.1
17.9
15.6
5.7
4.5
CESC
Accumulate
303
342
3,786
5,084
5,512
24.2
23.8
45.2
48.5
6.7
6.2
0.7
0.7
11.2
10.9
1.2
1.2
GIPCL
Buy
66
77
997
1,557
1,573
28.8
28.5
10.4
10.9
6.4
6.1
0.6
0.6
10.4
10.2
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Neutral
161
132,628
74,766
86,549
23.1
23.4
12.4
14.1
12.9
11.4
1.6
1.5
13.0
13.5
2.5
2.3
56
78
1,648
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
6.6
4.4
0.4
0.4
6.3
8.9
3.8
2.8
211
35,879
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
22.1
15.8
1.4
1.3
6.4
8.7
6.1
5.0
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
July 09, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
89
115
3,731
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
3.9
3.3
0.3
0.3
8.8
9.4
3.4
2.5
MLIFE
Accumulate
334
376
1,365
814
897
26.9
27.0
31.3
33.9
10.7
9.9
1.1
1.0
10.2
10.1
2.0
1.8
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
322
122,091
80,076
86,613
32.8
33.5
15.5
19.8
20.8
16.2
2.2
1.9
10.5
11.9
2.2
1.9
Idea Cellular
Neutral
85
28,282
23,209
26,063
26.2
27.5
3.3
4.9
26.0
17.3
2.0
1.8
7.7
10.3
1.7
1.5
Rcom
Neutral
69
14,149
22,125
23,734
31.9
32.0
4.5
5.9
15.3
11.7
0.4
0.4
2.5
3.1
2.1
1.8
Telecom
zOthers
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,506
1,628
3,201
1,661
1,918
9.7
12.0
60.7
90.4
24.8
16.7
5.1
4.1
22.0
27.3
1.7
1.4
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
200
246
1,989
3,569
4,172
8.6
9.2
17.3
22.3
11.5
8.9
2.5
2.1
22.9
25.3
0.5
0.5
Cera Sanitaryware
Accumulate
280
306
355
395
469
15.4
16.6
30.0
38.0
9.4
7.4
2.0
1.6
23.7
24.5
1.1
0.9
Cravatex
Buy
651
785
168
302
364
5.7
6.0
49.0
71.0
13.3
9.2
4.0
2.8
29.8
30.7
0.7
0.5
CRISIL
Neutral
1,072
7,519
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
31.2
26.8
14.1
11.3
50.9
46.9
7.2
6.1
Finolex Cables
Buy
43
61
653
2,334
2,687
8.8
9.3
7.6
10.2
5.6
4.2
0.7
0.6
13.7
16.1
0.2
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
486
615
634
2,346
2,753
5.8
6.7
44.0
68.0
11.1
7.2
0.5
0.5
4.8
7.0
0.2
0.2
Goodyear India
Accumulate
335
374
773
1,511
1,692
7.9
9.0
31.5
41.3
10.6
8.1
2.1
1.8
21.2
23.5
0.3
0.2
Graphite India
Buy
91
124
1,776
2,158
2,406
18.1
18.9
12.4
14.0
7.3
6.5
1.0
0.9
14.0
14.3
1.0
0.8
Greenply Industries
Buy
197
309
475
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
6.7
4.5
1.1
0.9
16.8
21.0
0.5
0.4
HEG
Accumulate
214
242
856
1,746
1,946
16.5
17.7
22.5
32.9
9.5
6.5
1.0
0.9
10.4
14.2
1.1
1.1
Hitachi
Neutral
154
353
857
968
6.9
8.4
10.2
16.0
15.1
9.6
1.9
1.6
12.9
17.8
0.5
0.4
Honeywell Automation
Accumulate
2,705
2,864
2,391
1,761
2,024
6.7
8.2
95.0
127.0
28.5
21.3
3.3
2.9
14.1
16.3
1.3
1.1
INEOS ABS India
Accumulate
720
804
1,266
900
1,020
9.0
11.1
33.0
45.0
21.8
16.0
3.0
2.6
14.3
17.0
1.2
1.0
ITD Cementation
Neutral
229
264
1,535
1,842
11.1
11.1
27.3
38.3
8.4
6.0
0.6
0.6
7.9
10.2
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Accumulate
243
268
1,961
1,315
1,568
8.6
11.1
6.4
10.9
38.1
22.4
3.2
3.0
8.4
13.9
1.8
1.5
MCX
Buy
1,117
1,598
5,696
610
702
65.5
67.0
67.9
79.9
16.5
14.0
4.8
4.0
29.1
28.9
6.4
5.1
MRF
Buy
10,500
13,106
4,453
12,390
14,400
10.4
11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2
7.9
6.4
1.6
1.3
16.5
17.4
0.6
0.5
Page Industries
Neutral
2,970
3,313
887
1,108
18.3
18.6
95.0
120.9
31.3
24.6
16.3
13.2
57.4
59.5
3.8
3.0
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
526
618
631
1,019
1,220
11.2
12.2
44.2
61.8
11.9
8.5
2.8
2.1
26.8
28.6
0.8
0.7
Sintex Industries
Buy
65
79
1,770
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.8
4.1
0.6
0.6
12.9
13.2
0.7
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
269
392
252
1,042
1,173
12.4
12.5
66.3
78.5
4.1
3.4
0.8
0.7
21.1
20.8
0.5
0.4
SpiceJet
Buy
35
40
1,678
5,647
6,513
3.5
6.5
1.9
4.9
17.8
7.1
41.9
6.1
0.4
0.4
TAJ GVK
Buy
70
108
441
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
8.9
7.7
1.2
1.1
13.9
14.4
1.8
1.5
Market Outlook
July 09, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
zOthers
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
338
420
521
700
806
18.2
18.2
55.6
65.1
6.1
5.2
0.8
0.7
14.2
14.8
0.3
0.2
TVS Srichakra
Buy
334
462
256
1,612
1,827
9.5
9.8
72.3
92.5
4.6
3.6
1.4
1.0
33.1
32.1
0.4
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
758
9,916
10,289
11,421
13.5
14.3
31.0
42.9
24.4
17.7
1.9
1.7
8.1
10.3
1.7
1.5
Vesuvius India
Accumulate
381
413
773
628
716
16.4
16.5
29.8
34.4
12.8
11.1
2.2
1.9
18.8
18.6
1.1
0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 06, 2012
Market Outlook
July 09, 2012

Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

(1.0) (124.2) 12,772

ONGC to sell 35% stake in CBM blocks

(1.1) (120.7) 11,002

OIL & GAS

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (July 5, 2012)

FII Derivatives (July 5, 2012)

Jet Air India

ONGC to sell 35% stake in CBM blocks

Mahindra and Mahindra rolls out utility vehicles in Kenya

Economic and Political News

Growth rate of 9% in next 5 yrs not possible: Montek

Kingfisher starts paying Feb salaries to staff

July 10, 2012

July 11, 2012

HDFC, Cera Sanitaryware Ltd

July 12, 2012

July 13, 2012

HDFC Bank, Sintex

July 14, 2012

July 16, 2012

Exide Industries, South Ind.Bank

July 17, 2012

July 18, 2012

Bajaj Auto, Infotech Enterprises

July 19, 2012

Kotak Mah. Bank, Dr Reddy's, Persistent, Tata Sponge

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

July 09, 2012

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

July 10, 2012

Industrial Production (YoY)

Initial Jobless claims

Industrial Production YoY

Industrial Production (YoY)

Real GDP (YoY)

July 16, 2012

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

July 17, 2012

July 12, 2012

July 13, 2012

Consumer price index (mom)

Jobless claims change

July 19, 2012

July 23, 2012

July 24, 2012

Existing home sales

New home sales

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

July 18, 2012

July 25, 2012

July 27, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Reverse Repo rate

Imports yoy growth

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates