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Population Growth Need for Food and Textile Fibres Availability of Arable Land
90%
84%
Arable land
42% 43% 34% 21% 24% 20% 12% 11% 6% -1.2% -2.5% -3.7% -4.9% 16%
0% -15% 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Malthus failed to foresee the astonishing development of transport and colonisation which took place in the 19th century and which increased so enormously the area from which foodstuffs and raw materials could be drawn. With the advent of the progressive agribusiness (Post-war Green Revolution), the use of synthetic fertiliser, pesticides, state-of-the-art irrigation systems and today the genetic engineering were the driving forces for the exponential growth of the food production.
Developed countries, 15
Source: FAO
Arable Land
Of the earths 149 million km of land, approximately 17.3 million km are cultivated.
Arable land: 10.6 % = 15.8 mill. km Planted with permanent crops: 1.0 % = 1.5 mill. km
Arable land is land cultivated with crops that are replanted after each harvest, like all sorts of grains, sugar or cotton. (= annual plants)
Permanent crop land is land cultivated with crops that are not replanted after each harvest, like citrus, coffee or rubber. (= perennial plants) The remaining 132 million km are permanent pastures, forests, barren land and built-on areas.
13.40
12.60
12.80
13.00
13.20
13.60
13.80
14.00
14.20
Arable land
8
Source: FAO
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
In 1960 worldwide approximately 4,400 m of arable land per capita was available, 30 years later merely 2,700 m and in 2025 most probably only 1,700 m.
2,700 m p.c.
1,700 m p.c.
1960
1990
2025
Agricultural land is constantly losing soil and fertility,caused by wind and water erosion, nutrient depletion and chemical pollution.. To secure food production more arable land would be necessary !!
9 Franz Martin Haemmerle
Agricultural Yields
Future production increases can only be reached by an enhancement of the yield per area and not by an expansion of the area. Intensification of the production requires a much higher input of inorganic fertilisers and pesticides as well as a substantial improvement of the irrigation systems. But ironically all these efforts decrease the yields in the long run. With an ecological cultivation the inputs of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides can be reduced or avoided, but the yields will be much lower.
10
11
160
140
million hectars
120 100 80 60
17
112
Conventional Biotech
40
20 0
73 12 21 46 24 7
29% Maize
23% Canola
Source: ISAAA
Over the last years the area planted with gene-modified crops is growing by 10 million hectares p.a. and has reached 148 million hectares in 2010.
12 Franz Martin Haemmerle
Refusing genetic engineering makes the food problem even more daunting.
People have been genetically modifying plants for more than 10,000 years.
13
Conclusion
In the near future we will have a desperate shortage of fertile farmland. Arable land on which non-food crops are growing today has to be used more and more for food crops in the future. Food crops should be used for feeding people, not for animal feed or bio-fuels.
14
36.0
35.9
32
30 28 26 24 22 20
29.3
28 million ha ?
Source: USDA
15
million hectars
3,000
2,500 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Source: USDA
Cotton farmers in the US, in China and in Europe can only survive with the help of subsidies.
16 Franz Martin Haemmerle
US
925 kg/ha ?
Pakistan
Uzbekistan
22.7%
17
25
20
15
10
18
19
2015
2020
2025
30.0
29.0
875
900
26.25
26.10
2030
Cotton Year 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
28.0
Production (in mill. tons) 22.0 24.9 26.9
925
25.90
Consumption 25.3 24.4 24.7
20
Cotton Price
During the last two years the price has risen strongly. With the stagnation or with the decline of the production the price will even out certainly above the 10-year average of 60 cents/lb.
US cents/lb
220
170
120
62 cents/lb 78 164
114.1 81.54
70
51.50
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Oct-10
Apr-01
Oct-01
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
21
Apr-11
Jul-11
20
120
170
220
US cents/lb
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
100
in %
80
Jan-03
Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05
The FAO Food Price Index (2002 2004 = 100%) shows a similar trend.
22
Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11
20
70
1.4 billion
Source: World Population Prospects (Medium Variant); United Nations, Population Division; The 2008 Revision Population Database.
23
in 10-annual steps
in 5-annual steps
in annual steps
24
Income and population growth are the major factors driving increases in textile consumption. Over the next 5 years the per capita fibre consumption will grow around 2.5% p.a., in the following years the growth rate will decline to 1.5%.
25 Franz Martin Haemmerle
26
37% 33%
140 120
100
80
Synthetic Cellulosic
Cotton
60 40 20 0 1900 1920
Wool
1940
1960
1980
2000
2005
2010
2015 est.
2020 est.
2025 est.
2030 est.
27
Fibre Production
The per capita fibre consumption will grow.
Certain properties of cellulosic fibres cannot be substituted by petroleum-based synthetics (Polyester, Polyacrylonitrile, Polyamide, Polypropylene and others).
Cellulosic fibres (cotton and man-made cellulosic fibres) will make up 33 37% of the fibre market.
28
29
Bottom weights
Active wear Socks Shirts / Blouses Home textiles Bed linen Towels Filling Nonwovens
Cleaning rags
Sanitary articles Baby wipes
30
31
Cellulose Gap
32
10
8.1
7.3
2010-2015 2015-2020
5.1 3.9 3.4 3.8
2020-2025 2025-2030
3.3
2.8 2.8 2.5
3.2
The demand of man-made cellulose fibres will increase disproportionally. 33 Franz Martin Haemmerle
Sustainability
A sustainable fibre production tries to achieve three goals to effect the environment in a positive way ( ecology), to be economical and profitable ( economy) and to enhance the quality of life ( social responsibility).
Ecology
Economy
Sustainability
Social responsibility
In all three fields man-made cellulose fibres show better results than cotton.
34 Franz Martin Haemmerle
Sustainability of Cotton
The sustainability of cotton is strongly dependent on consumption of pesticides and fertilisers gene-modified cotton (70%) or conventional cotton (30%) with different cultivation system conventional IPM (Integrated Pest Management) organic (<1%) water consumption rain-fed (<40%) irrigated (>60%) 97% flood or furrow irrigation (20-50% water efficiency) 2% mobile irrigation systems (80-90% water eff.) 1% drip irrigation (90-98% water eff.) land use (resp. yield) but in comparison to man-made cellulose fibres like Viscose, Lyocell or Modal cotton is not sustainable at all.
35 Franz Martin Haemmerle
The natural origin of man-made cellulosic fibres from the renewable resource wood contributes to a sustainable future.
The substitution of cotton by man-made cellulose fibres is also a contribution to environmental protection !!
36
16,000 14,000
11,700
14,300
litre water
10,000
4,000
2,000 0 Lyocell Viscose Modal GM-cotton (1,200 kg/ha) IPM cotton conventional organic (1,000 cotton cotton kg/ha) (850 kg/ha) (700 kg/ha)
265 445
470
Irrigated cotton in a hot environment requires 20 - 35 times more water than cellulose fibres.
37 Franz Martin Haemmerle
1.4 billion km
2.5% Freshwater
Ice and glaciers Undergroundwater Permafrost Lakes, rivers etc 0.8% 0.4% 0% 20% 40% 60%
68.7%
30.1%
80%
= 140,000 km or 0,01%
38
Water requirement
More than 70 per cent of world freshwater consumption is used for irrigation and 60 per cent of the irrigation water is wasted due to inappropriate techniques. Intensive irrigation, especially flood or furrow irrigation, can cause waterlogging with a catastrophic long-term effect, salinisation. Approximately one third of the world population suffers from water shortage today, up to the year 2025 this share most likely will expand to two thirds and the number of conflicts between different countries is likely to rise. Water will become the oil of the future !!
39
Water requirement
One of the biggest environmental disasters was caused by cotton. The Aral Sea was the 4th biggest freshwater sea on earth, which has nearly disappeared over the last three decades, by using the water of the rivers for irrigation.
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
40
1.4
hectares
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Lyocell Viscose Modal 0.24 0.70
1.00
0.69
Compared to cotton cultivation, the yield of cellulose fibre from Central European beech forests and from fast-growing eucalyptus is much higher. The humanity needs more land for food !!
41 Franz Martin Haemmerle
Cotton
Lenzing Viscose Asia Gen-modified 70% Organic 1% IPM 5-10% Conventional 20-25%
Lyocell (Tencel)
no
Lenzing Modal
no
no
little
no
high
huge
no
very lttle
no
no
rain-fed
rain-fed
rain-fed
rain-fed
excellent
excellent
excellent
excellent
26
24
24
21
21
19
20
16
15
12
13
10
Ranking
sustainable
4 3 2 1 0
11
10
12
yes
no
42
Final Conclusion
Companies which today are using mainly cotton will have to add man-made cellulose fibres to their production programme. Man-made cellulose fibres are in contrary to cotton extremely sustainable fibres.
The substitution of cotton by man-made cellulose fibres is an important step in order to protect our environment. Man-made cellulose fibres are real ecological fibres !!
43 Franz Martin Haemmerle
44
Franz Martin Haemmerle Arenberggasse 1/5 A-1030 Vienna /Austria Email: fmhaemmerle@hotmail.com
45 Franz Martin Haemmerle
Yield
Cotton production
= variables
46