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Weak-Form EMH
Current prices reflect all security-market information, including the historical sequence of prices, rates of return, trading volume data, and other marketgenerated information This implies that past rates of return and other market data should have no relationship with future rates of return
Semistrong-Form EMH
Current security prices reflect all public information, including market and nonmarket information This implies that decisions made on new information after it is public should not lead to above-average risk-adjusted profits from those transactions
Strong-Form EMH
Stock prices fully reflect all information from public and private sources This implies that no group of investors should be able to consistently derive above-average risk-adjusted rates of return This assumes perfect markets in which all information is cost-free and available to everyone at the same time
Comparison of trading rules to a buyand-hold policy is difficult because trading rules can be complex and there are too many to test them all
Filter rules yield above-average profits with small filters, but only before taking into account transactions costs Trading rule results have been mixed, and most have not been able to beat a buyand-hold policy
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Testing constraints
Use only publicly available data Include all transactions costs Adjust the results for risk
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Results generally support the weakform EMH, but results are not unanimous
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Studies to predict future rates of return using public information beyond market information
Time series analysis Cross-section distribution
Event studies examine how fast stock prices adjust to significant economic events
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Time series tests for abnormal rates of return short-horizon returns have limited results long-horizon returns analysis has been successful based on
dividend yield (D/P) default spread term structure spread
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Studies examine alternative measures of size or quality as a tool to rank stocks in terms of risk-adjusted returns
These tests include a joint hypothesis and are dependent both on market efficiency and the asset pricing model used
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markets are inefficient or market model is not properly specified and provides incorrect estimates of risk and expected returns
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Neglected Firms
Firms divided by number of analysts following a stock Neglected firm effect caused by lack of information, crosses size classes Contradictory results from another study
Trading volume
Studied relationship between returns, market value, and trading activity
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Size and BV/MV dominate other ratios such as E/P ratio or leverage This combination only works during expansive monetary policy
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Event studies
Stock split studies show that splits do not result in abnormal gains after the split announcement, but before Initial public offerings seems to be underpriced by about 15%, but that varies over time, and the price is adjusted within one day after the offering Being listed on an exchange may offer some short term profit opportunities
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Evidence is mixed
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Studies on predicting rates of return for a cross-section of stocks indicates markets are not semistrong efficient
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Studies on predicting rates of return for a cross-section of stocks indicates markets are not semistrong efficient
Dividend yields
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Studies on predicting rates of return for a cross-section of stocks indicates markets are not semistrong efficient
Dividend yields, risk premiums
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Studies on predicting rates of return for a cross-section of stocks indicates markets are not semistrong efficient
Dividend yields, risk premiums, calendar patterns
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Studies on predicting rates of return for a cross-section of stocks indicates markets are not semistrong efficient
Dividend yields, risk premiums, calendar patterns, and earnings surprises
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Studies on predicting rates of return for a cross-section of stocks indicates markets are not semistrong efficient
Dividend yields, risk premiums, calendar patterns, and earnings surprises
This also included cross-sectional predictors such as size, the BV/MV ratio (when there is expansive monetary policy), E/P ratios, and neglected firms.
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Corporate insiders
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Insiders include major corporate officers, directors, and owners of 10% or more of any equity class of securities
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Studies showed that public investors who traded with the insiders based on announced transactions would have enjoyed excess risk-adjusted returns, but the markets now seem to have eliminated this inefficiency (soon after it was discovered)
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Other studies indicate that you can increase returns from using insider trading information by combining it with key financial ratios and considering what group of insiders is doing the buying and selling
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Security Analysts
Tests have considered whether it is possible to identify a set of analysts who have the ability to select undervalued stocks
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Security Analysts
Tests have considered whether it is possible to identify a set of analysts who have the ability to select undervalued stocks This looks at whether, after a stock selection by an analyst is made known, a significant abnormal return is available to those who follow their recommendation
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Security Analysts
There is evidence in favor of existence of superior analysts who apparently posses private information
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Hawawini study indicates behavior of European stock prices is similar to U.S. common stocks
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