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The Markets for Flexible Glass2011

Nano-427

Published October 2011 NanoMarkets, LC

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Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment. The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companies and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms. Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permission of NanoMarkets, LC.

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 1
E.1 Summary of the Market Opportunities for Flexible Glass.......................... 1
E.1.1 E.1.2 E.1.3 E.1.4 E.1.5 E.1.6 E.1.7 Intrinsically Flexible Displays ............................................................................................................... 2 Flexible Photovoltaics ............................................................................................................................ 4 OLED Lighting ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Other Specific Product Applications for Flexible Glass: Sensors, Biochips and Touch Screens 5 Lightweight Displays and PV ................................................................................................................ 7 Flexible Encapsulation........................................................................................................................... 7 R2R .......................................................................................................................................................... 8

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E.2 Challenges to the Future of Flexible Glass .................................................... 9

E.2.1 Niches Where Flexible Glass Can Compete With Plastic ................................................................ 10 E.2.2 Flexible Glass and its Non-Plastic Competitors................................................................................ 11

E.3 Summary of the Eight-Year Projections of Flexible Glass Markets ....... 13

Chapter One: Introduction ........................................................................................ 16

1.1 Background to this Report ........................................................................... 16
The Value of Flexible Glass ................................................................................................................ 16 Glass, Weight and R2R in the Display Industry .............................................................................. 17 A Parallel Market in the PV Sector .................................................................................................... 18 Flexible Glass and Intrinsically Flexible Products ............................................................................ 18 Flexible Glass versus the Rest ........................................................................................................... 20 1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.1.4 1.1.5

1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report............................................................... 22 1.3 Methodology of this Report............................................................................. 23 1.4 Plan of this Report............................................................................................. 24

Chapter Two: Flexible Glass: Suppliers, Technology and Products ................ 26

2.1 Current Flexible Glass Products, Technologies and Supply structure .. 26
2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4 AGC/Asahi Glass .................................................................................................................................. 26 Corning .................................................................................................................................................. 28 LiSEC ..................................................................................................................................................... 31 Nippon Electric Glass ........................................................................................................................... 32

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2.1.5 2.1.6 2.1.7 2.1.8

Schott .................................................................................................................................................... 33 Tokyo Electron (TEL) .......................................................................................................................... 34 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and CalTech .................................................................... 34 Likely Market Entrants: From China with Glass? ........................................................................... 34

2.4 Flexible Glass Versus Other Flexible Substrates ...................................... 35

2.4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3 2.4.4 "Pseudo-Flexible" Glass (Ceramic/Polymer Mixes) ......................................................................... 35 Plastics .................................................................................................................................................. 36 Metal Foil and Sheets .......................................................................................................................... 37 Flexible Silicon ...................................................................................................................................... 38

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2.5 Flexible Glass and Encapsulation .................................................................. 38 2.6 Manufacturing Flexible Glass: Trends and Challenges ............................ 39
2.6.1 Potential Requirement for Special Coatings .................................................................................... 39

2.7 Key Points from this Chapter.......................................................................... 40

Chapter Three: Markets for Flexible Glass: Current and Future ...................... 42
3.1 Flexible Glass: Beyond R2R Processes ........................................................ 42 3.2 E-Readers and E-Paper: Possible Roles for Flexible Glass ...................... 42
3.2.1 Flexibility in E-Paper Displays ............................................................................................................ 44

3.3 Cell Phones and Slate/Laptop Computers ................................................... 45

3.3.1 An AMLCD Display on Flexible Glass ................................................................................................. 45 3.3.2 Flexible Glass and Rollable/Foldable Displays ................................................................................. 45

3.4 Flexible Glass in Touch Panels ....................................................................... 47 3.5 Flexible Glass and the Future of Solar Panels ............................................ 47
3.5.1 3.5.2 3.5.3 3.5.4 3.5.5 3.5.6 3.5.7 Glass in the PV Industry ..................................................................................................................... 47 Flexible Substrates in PV .................................................................................................................... 48 A Note on CIGS .................................................................................................................................... 49 The Lure of the OPV/DSC Market: Is It Worth a Look for Flexible Glass Makers? .................. 49 Is Flexible BIPV a Market Opportunity for Flexible Glass? ............................................................. 50 Flexible Glass as a PV Encapsulant .................................................................................................. 51 The Down Side of Flexible Glass in the PV Space ......................................................................... 52

3.6 Flexible Glass for OLED Lighting.................................................................... 52 3.7 Flexible Glass in Large-Area and Low-Weight Sensors........................... 53 3.8 Other Markets and Applications Concepts for Flexible Glass ................. 55

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3.8.1 Flexible Batteries ................................................................................................................................. 56 3.8.2 Chip Packages ...................................................................................................................................... 56 3.8.3 Wearable Displays ............................................................................................................................... 57

3.9 Key Points from this Chapter.......................................................................... 57

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Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of Flexible Glass Markets ......................... 60

4.1 Forecasting and Research Methodology ...................................................... 60
4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 4.1.4 Scope of Forecast ................................................................................................................................ 60 Data Sources for the Forecast and for the Report ......................................................................... 61 Demand, Economic and Policy Issues .............................................................................................. 61 Alternative Scenarios and Other Factors Taken Into Consideration ............................................ 62

4.2 Eight-Year Forecast by Application/End-User Market ............................. 63

4.2.1 4.2.2 4.2.3 4.2.4 Display Markets .................................................................................................................................... 63 Photovoltaics Market ........................................................................................................................... 66 OLED Lighting ...................................................................................................................................... 69 Large-Area Sensors ............................................................................................................................. 71

4.3 Eight-Year Forecast by Type of Application (Displays, PV, etc.) ............ 71 4.4 Eight-Year Forecast by Type of Functionality (Intrinsically Flexible, R2R, etc.) ................................................................................................................... 73 Abbreviations and Acronyms Used in this Report ............................................ 76 About the Author ...................................................................................................... 77

List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Summary of Market Opportunities for Flexible Glass ......................................................... 2 Exhibit E-2: Flexible Glass: Comparison With Other Materials ........................................................... 12 Exhibit E-3: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Functionality ($ Million) ............................... 13 Exhibit 2-1: Corning's Ultra-Slim Flexible Glass ................................................................................. 29 Exhibit 3-1: Opportunities for Flexible Large-Area Sensors ................................................................ 54 Exhibit 4-1: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use in the Display Industry .................................... 64 Exhibit 4-2: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use in the Solar Panel Industry .............................. 67 Exhibit 4-3: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use in the OLED Lighting Industry .......................... 69

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Exhibit 4-4: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use in the Sensor Industry ..................................... 71 Exhibit 4-5: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Application ($ Million) ................................. 73 Exhibit 4-6: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Functionality ($ Million) ............................... 74

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Executive Summary
E.1 Summary of the Market Opportunities for Flexible Glass

Despite the somewhat dramatic name, so-called "flexible glass" is in fact no more than ultrathin glass that canas the result of its thinnessbe rolled up to a fairly tight diameter. Because of this property this kind of glass is a potential substitute for plastics, metals and other materials that are currently being proposed to serve as for flexible substrates as well as encapsulation materials and cover glass for electronics and solar panels. Flexible glass is currently being developed by several major glass companies, of which the one with the greatest "mindshare" in this space is undoubtedly Corning. Other firms that are developing products in this space are Schott, Nippon Electric Glass, Tokyo Electron and ASG/Asahi Glass. Flexible glass has been in development for several years and appears to be nearing commercialization. Our analysis suggests that it has the following major (somewhat overlapping) application areas: Intrinsically flexible products, especially displays Lightweight displays and PV (and probably other lightweight products) Solar panels OLED lighting Sensors and diagnostic devices of various kinds R2R processing Flexible encapsulation.

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The characteristics of most of these opportunities are profiled and assessed in Exhibit E-1, below. This Exhibit shows the timeframes and what the risks are likely to be. (The odd man out from the list given above is the sensors/diagnostic sector which is rather diverse and discussed more fully later in this section.) At the moment most of the commercial activity in the flexible glass space seems to be heavily focused on R2R processing and display applications, in the sense that this is where the glass firms developing flexible glass say they are placing their efforts in terms of applications developments.

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Exhibit E-1: Summary of Market Opportunities for Flexible Glass

Intrinsically Flexible Displays
Growth of addressable markets Flexible displays exist in prototype only

Flexible PV

OLED lighting

Lightweight Displays and Similar Products

Appears to be good growth prospects for mobile devices and automotive electronics Flexible glass is thin and lightweight

Flexible Encapsulation

R2R Processing

Commercial products exists and growth expected driven by the need for BIPV

In luxury lighting only at the present time

Main drivers for flexible glass

Displays frequently need highperformance substrates and encapsulation

Strength of encapsulation is attractive. Also low weight for roofing products

Conformable lighting and (possibly) improved encapsulation

Some of the advanced flexible electronics products popular a few years ago have not done well. Could flexible glass be a better answer Flexible electronics and PV is in urgent need of better encapsulation and there are not many good alternatives

For products that currently used glass substrates (like displays), flexible glass brings fabrication into the R2R era Supposedly R2R processing is lower cost, but requires flexible substrates. Flexible glass would therefore be an enabler for shifting to R2R where a rigid glass substrate was formerly used Plastics, metal, paper, textiles. But these do not offer all the desirable properties of glass Little or no data from the field yet

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Key compete- Primarily tors to plastics. flexible glass Possibly metal foils for OLED displays

Metal sheets, but Most OLED some plastics lighting today is may suffice rigid and uses glass and (maybe) foil substrates Main Availability/new Cost. Solar is a Cost. Also, challenges to technology. Is it very cost flexible/ flexible glass flexible enough sensitive area. So conformable far flexible glass lighting is not firms do not seen as an seem to be immediate chasing after the prospect PV sector Best niche for Rollable displays BIPV Conformable flexible glass for cell phones lighting and e-book readers Timeframe Samsung will Immediate Beyond 2015. for start shipping This is when opportunity flexible displays conformable in 2012 OLED lighting is expected to appear

Plastics, metal foil. Paper to a very limited extent

Specialized advanced flexible encapsulation schemes

There are Flexible glass as an lighter flexible encapsulation substrates technology is still an idea in progress

Mobile displays

OLED displays and lighting. Possibly CIGS PV The need is immediate, but this isn't really a focus of the suppliers of flexible glass at the present time

Immediate

Displays if the improved economics can be achieved Immediate

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E.1.1 Intrinsically Flexible Displays

Intrinsically flexible displays have been much more talked about and shown at trade shows than actually implemented as a commercial product. Regular visitors to shows/conferences

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such as the SID show in the U.S. are by now quite used to seeing flexible displays at the booths of several display companies for the best part of a decade. They should be forgiven any cynicism about the market prospects for flexible displays that they may have, because these flexible displays seem never to have gotten beyond prototypes and some long-promised flexible displays have simply failed to reach the market. Nonetheless, there are some genuine arguments for including the intrinsically flexible display sector as a potential sales opportunity for flexible glass, although admittedly these arguments are not overwhelming and should be considered together: On the demand side, the idea of using a rollable display as a plug-in for a cell phone seems attractive as a means to provide a larger display than that embedded in the phone. It also seems to be reasonably well established that there are military applications for flexible displays. Much longer term, there seems to be some potential for rollable TVs, but no one is close to providing such a product yet. On the supply side of the equation, there seem to be more and more major display makers with flexible display prototypes and Samsung actually says that it is going to go into production with these products in 2012. The growing interest by large display makers in flexible displays means that there are now firms with huge financial and marketing resources backing flexible displays and this is certainly different from a few years back when flexible displays were primarily the province of start-ups.

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The previous two paragraphs seem to establish the somewhat risky nature of the flexible display market as an addressable market for flexible glass: To this must be added that our guess would be that most flexible display makers are thinking about plastics and metal foils for substrates/encapsulation rather than flexible glass. After all, these materials are readily and inexpensively available. On the other hand, flexible glass, if available in sufficient volume, should be a reasonably easy sell into the flexible display market, since the transparency and strong encapsulation that flexible glass can provide are likely to be highly valued for mobile and TV displays and therefore display makers may be willing to pay a premium for these characteristics.

For intrinsically flexible displays, the cover glass, substrate and encapsulation (to the extent that they are three separate materials) must all be flexible and plastic could provide this

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capability in all three cases. However, flexible glass is likely to offer more transparency and higher scratch resistance. Metal foil would make an attractive substrate, but is not transparent so is not an option for a cover glass.
E.1.2 Flexible Photovoltaics

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Although few if any makers of flexible glass appear to be targeting the PV space at the present time, there do appear to be a number of opportunities for flexible glass in this sector. The role of flexible glass as an enabling technology for R2R processed PV and as an advanced encapsulation technology for PV is discussed below. However, we note that there also seems to be a market just beginning to emerge for flexible PV products. These have a number of potential advantages both in terms of functionality and aesthetics: The functionality advantages include conformability to the building fabric and better ability to withstand high winds and other difficult weather conditions. The aesthetic considerations include the ability to manufacture attractive value-added products using curved or flexible glass.

Somewhat restricting the opportunities for flexible glass are (at least) three other factors: Despite the familiarity of the PV industry with glass, where flexible substrates are required, the industry seems to have no problem with using metal or even plastic. CIGS PV, which remains one of the up-and-coming sectors of the industry, does not need a transparent substrate, so one of the advantages of using glass is effectively eliminated in such cases. Flexible glass may be a high-cost option compared to sheet metal or plastic and this is not attractive in the highly cost sensitive PV industry. (We note that Chinese solar panel makers have recently made big inroads in the solar panel industry, based largely on cost.)
E.1.3 OLED Lighting

Using white OLED panels for lighting is an idea that is getting considerable backing both from large electronics and lighting firms (GE, LG, Panasonic, Osram, Philips, Samsung, etc.) and from government programs designed to provide encouragement to solid-state/efficient lighting. However, at the present time, the OLED lighting that can actually be purchased in a store falls

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completely into the luxury lighting field and invariably uses a rigid substrate and encapsulation; primarily glass. Many people think, however, that OLED lighting will come down significantly in price and that as this happens OLED luminaires will become a serious alternative to conventional lighting, especially in office applications. In addition, the thin, panel-like nature of OLED lighting suggests that it can be made flexible or at least conformable, implying that some kind of flexible substrate and encapsulation will be required: The consensus is that neither widespread use of OLED lighting nor the introduction of conformable/flexible OLED lighting is going to make it out of the lab until (at least) 2015. Indeed, at this early stage of development for OLED lighting, it is quite possible that the whole idea will be a flash in the pan. In addition, no one has seriously proposed using flexible glass for flexible/conformable OLED lighting, as far as we are aware. Indeed, flexible glass may prove to be quite expensive for this application. Page | 5

On the other hand, OLED lighting might be an area that makers of flexible glass should consider, because there it could potentially use a lot of substrate/encapsulation material and by the time flexible/conformable OLED lighting is available, flexible glass should be mature enough that it will be available in sufficient quantities to meet volume requirements. Finally, current concepts of flexible lightingas we have already suggesteddo not require high degrees of flexibility, so this again may make the market highly suitable for flexible glass that may ultimately have some problems with tight rolling.
E.1.4 Other Specific Product Applications for Flexible Glass: Sensors, Biochips and Touch Screens

Generally speaking, at the present time, the flexible glass firms have been focusing on the display sector, whether we are talking the intrinsically flexible displays or simply R2R processing. Nonetheless, the three specific products mentioned above as applications for flexible glassdisplays, PV and OLED lightingstand out, not because they are already large consumers of flexible glass; flexible glass is only just becoming productized. Rather, they are all areas that consume a lot of glass already and where flexibility would (as explained above) seem to be an advantage.

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There are other applications for flexible glass mentioned in the literature that currently seem to be a long way from the strategic thinking of the flexible glass makers but which may provide some new business revenues for these firms in the future. Sensors: Several kinds of sensor have been suggested as possible long-term opportunities for flexible glass: Glass substrates are already used in the sensor industry and there may be applications where flexible glass substrates may be a useful substitute on the grounds that these are lower in weight. These applications include sensors used in the automobile/other forms of transportation and in mobile electronics. It has also been suggested that a transparent flexible substrate such as that provided by flexible glass might also be useful where optical sensors are involved, although the specifics are unclear at the present time. Yet another area where flexible glass substrates might find a role in the future is in the area of large-area sensors. These may be used in many areas and are seen as part of the ongoing evolution towards the so-called "Internet of Things." But while flexible sensors are clearly part of this story, it is not as obvious that flexible glass is required. Indeed, because most of the deployment of sensors in the Internet of Things will supposedly be of very low-cost sensors, flexible glass is not the most obvious choice for a substrate. Page | 6

Biochips: DNA assays and biochips are currently used in a variety of R&D and (to a limited extent) medical diagnostic applications. These devices are typically created on a glass substrate sometimes using printing. In the long run there seem to be larger markets that this device could address, especially in medicine, but there will need to be cost reductions for this enhanced penetration to occur. Part of this may come from the use of flexible glass instead of regular standard glass. This would not only reduce materials costs directly, but also permit R2R processing (see below). Touch-screen applications: There may be applications for flexible glass in the touch-screen industry, especially in the analog resistive sector where the glass actually bends in response to the touch. It has been suggested that using flexible glass would make such touch displays more responsive to touch from a wide variety of objects. In addition, while plastic sheets could achieve the same or better flexibility for this application, flexible glass would be more scratch resistant.
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E.1.5 Lightweight Displays and PV

While the flexibility of flexible glass is the characteristic that we have emphasized in the opportunities profiled above, again we note that flexible glass is, in effect, just ultra-thin glass and is therefore lower weight than regular glass. Because flexible glass is also lighter than other forms of glass, it is possible that glass of this kind can be an attractive substitute for regular glass where weight matters. The area where flexible glass may resonate in the market based on weight-related characteristics would be in mobile displays and solar panels. This suggests two more opportunities for flexible glass: Weightor rather lack of itis obviously a major selling point for mobile displays and glass used in displays for laptops and cell phones has continued to get thinner over the years. Flexible glass for substrates or cover glass could help continue this trend and, as we have already noted, this material may be more scratch proof than the plastic alternative. In the thin-film PV (TFPV) sector, conventional glass has been widely used as a substrate and so thin-film glass has a certain familiarity about it. NanoMarkets believes that this is most easily exploited by offering flexible glass as a way of lowering the weight of solar panels. This is a significant factor in the sense that the lower the weight the less the cost (including installation cost). This is a reasonable assumption in the roof-based PV industry.
E.1.6 Flexible Encapsulation

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Flexible encapsulation technology has been in development since the earliest days of printed electronics when it was recognized that this type of encapsulation would be needed for R2R processing, especially where organic materials were being used, since these were in special need of protection. However, although advanced flexible encapsulation systems have appeared on the market, they do not seem to have caught on, primarily, it seems, because they are very expensive. Displays: This is one reason (although by no means the only one) why intrinsically flexible displays have never emerged as a mainstream product. Thus, despite much talk about flexible e-paper (i.e., electrophoretic displays), the reality is that in virtually all cases, the frontplanes for these displays are created on flexible substrates and then rigidly encapsulated.

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Flexible glass provides an alternative to advanced encapsulation systems, although this option has yet to see much development or commercialization. OLED displays in particular are in need of strong encapsulation. PV: Encapsulation is a critical issue in PV. Several types of PV are particularly in need of encapsulation because their absorber layers are highly vulnerable to air and moisture. These include CIGS and especially DSC and OPV. The importance of encapsulation in this context is enhanced by the fact that most PV will be deployed outdoors. Encapsulation in rigid glass is one possibility, but this is hardly helpful for flexible BIPV products of the kind discussed above. There are some interesting advanced flexible encapsulation systems that have been developed over the past few years, but these do not seem to have done especially well in the marketplace. It is possible, therefore, that there is an important long-term opportunity for flexible PV encapsulation using flexible glass. While the lack of an existing high-volume market of flexible PV to consume new encapsulation materials is of some concern to flexible encapsulation developers, there is not as much risk as one might think. Big companies like Dow Chemical are getting behind flexible PV.
E.1.7 R2R

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Perhaps the most immediate opportunity for flexible glass lies in providing a better substrate for R2R processing: This is the "simplest" opportunity for flexible glass, since all that it involves is using flexible glass as an alternative to some other flexible substrate in a process that is specifically designed for flexible substrates. All the complexities of creating a final product that is itself flexible are unnecessary in this application, although we note that R2R plants cannot simply change substrates without some effort. This seems to be the application that firms making (or planning to make) flexible glass are most interested in, which is perhaps not surprising. The selling proposition for flexible glass in this application includes the fact that it doesn't stretch, its good barrier properties and (especially) the fact that glass is highly thermally stable. Thermal stability may be especially important in certain specialized R2R processes. Displays are not often manufactured using R2R processes; conventional LCD displays use mature batch processes with rigid glass substrates. Probably the most important R2R process (in terms of volume) in the display industry today is the creation of an E Ink frontplane for e-book readers, however, this does not use a glass substrate. In the

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future, large OLED displays and OLED lighting panels may well use R2R/printing in fabrication and flexible glass substrates would be quite suitable for such resilient products. Also flexible glass could theoretically play an important role in the R2R manufacture of PV and, in fact, R2R has been an important consideration in the manufacturing of solar panels for at least a decade. It has met with mixed success, however. R2R processes are certainly used in the PV industry today, but some of the more enthusiastic plans for using R2R and printing in PV from a few years ago, don't seem to have gone anywhere near as far as some R2R advocates expected or stated. R2R's future in the PV space has also been put under strain by the fact that First Solar has proved that it is possible to make very low-cost solar panels using fairly conventional manufacturing approaches, based on economies of scale. This is something that the R2R advocates hadn't really counted. On the other hand, R2R seems virtually certain to have some kind of role in the future of R2R, so flexible glass may well be able to fill a niche in the PV industry at some point. Page | 9

E.2 Challenges to the Future of Flexible Glass

The main challenges for flexible glass fall into two categories: The first of these categories includes those involved in the manufacture of the glass itself and these are discussed in more detail in the main body of this report. Suffice it to say here that the manufacture of flexible glass has not proved easy and, in a sense, it is a task that is never quite completed, since the goal is to make glass ever thinner. The other category has to do with bringing the product to market in competition with some fairly well understood products. Flexible glass competes with other flexible substrates of which by far the most important is plastic substrates. As we have already noted, other materials that flexible glass competes with are metal foils and sheets, paper and textiles. These materials are all limited in their applications in important ways (metals are not transparent, for example). Only plastics represent a challenge to the use of flexible glass across a wide range of what are likely to be high- volume applications.

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E.2.1 Niches Where Flexible Glass Can Compete With Plastic

Flexible glass is a strong competitor with plastic on almost every ground, except price, but, of course, this aspect is crucial to the long-term success of flexible glass and in defining the addressable markets in which flexible glass can compete. Some important aspects of flexible glass where this new material can carve out important opportunities are likely to include: Transparency. All things considered, flexible glass is likely to be more transparent than plastic substrates, cover sheets, etc. This would seem to give it a strong advantage in high-end flexible displays and in display products more generally, including the touch sensors for touch-screen displays. It seems reasonable to assume that in high-end display products, the value of high-transparency would be sufficient to build it into the final price of the display Thermal stability. Glass is the most thermally stable of any of the materials that are considered in this report. This would matter primarily where high-temperature processing is used. Most R2R processing (the kind of fabrication in which flexible glass would be most widely used) does not involve high temperatures, but it is often useful to be able to thermally cure inks and coatings and flexible glass would be more suitable in such circumstances. Thermal curing can often result in higher performance of an R2R/printed electronics product, so this again points towards flexible glass being used in higher performance products of various kinds, although here we are talking about markets that extend beyond displays. Lifetimes. Glass is a long-lived product, while for plastics this is often not the case. Nonetheless, plastics would seem good enough for all but the longest-lived products. These exceptions would certainly include BIPV roofing and perhaps OLED television panels. Flexibility and dimensional stability. To date, the flexible glass that NanoMarkets has seen would seem to be somewhat less flexible than plastic and perhaps this could limit its use in rollable displays. However, this limitation of flexible glass would be offset by the fact that glass has a high level of dimensional stability, which means that a display using flexible glass is much less likely to stretch. Stretching of a display could potentially distort the image. At this early stage of the evolution of flexible displays, it is not easy to say to what degree this is likely to be a practical problem.

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E.2.2 Flexible Glass and Its Non-Plastic Competitors

As mentioned above, most of the other materials with which flexible glass is likely to compete are less of a challenge, because they do not compete in a broad way: Metal foils are sometimes used as a substrate for OLED displays, but this is not common enough to really be designated as a market challenge to flexible glass. Perhaps more of a serious challenge is the use of metal sheet roofing as a substrate for BIPV. This has been used with both OPV and DSC and it would seem that metal would be a serious rival to even flexible glass in this market. Paper and textiles. Paper and textiles have been developed by a small range of researchers and commercial companies as substrates for specialized types of printed and organic electronics applications. For example, paper substrates are (or at least could be) used in disposable electronics and textile substrates are inherent in the "smart textile" concept. It does not seem that there would be all that much of a use for flexible glass in such applications. Indeed, disposable electronics appears to be exactly the kind of application in which flexible glass would not be used. Page | 11

Another aspect of the competition between flexible glass and other materials is that, as a practical matter, flexible glass finds itself in competition with products that are fairly generic in nature, while flexible glass at the current stage of its evolution is a fairly proprietary product orat the very leastits pricing is likely to reflect the large costs involved with the extensive R&D that produced it. This again suggests that the potential for flexible glass lies mostly in markets where it can command a premium. In Exhibit E-2 we show how glass stacks up against alternatives.

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Exhibit E-2 Flexible Glass: Comparison With Other Materials

Flexibility Plastic Sheet Metal Flexible glass would Similar flexibility not be as flexible as to flexible glass plastic at the present time, but good enough for most likely applications Depends on the plastic Varies considerably Metal Foil Foil may be more flexible than flexible glass but tends to crease Varies, but flexible glass could be heavier Paper Textiles Flexible glass Flexible glass is not would not be as flexible as as flexible as textiles, but other paper, but aspects of textiles paper tends to limit its use in crease electronics or PV Flexible glass would generally be heavier Glass Rigid glass is obviously not flexible

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Flexible glass would generally be much lighter than rigid glass Glass has highest thermal stability of all the materials considered here. This includes flexible glass Glassrigid or transparentis generally highly transparent

Weight

Thermal stability Plastics are less resistant to heat than any other flexible substrate, although polyimides are better than other polymers in this regard Transparency Plastics are often transparent or translucent, but seldom as transparent as glass of any kind Dimensional Dimensional stability stability of plastic can sometimes be quite poor Maturity of technology/ material

Metals have very good thermal stability, but not as good as glass

Metals are not transparent in any genuine sense

Paper has very Unless specially limited thermal treated, textiles stability have limited thermal stability. But such treatments are easy to achieve Paper can be Textiles can be transparent, transparent, but but this is not this is not usually usually the case the case The dimensional stability of paper is good Dimensional stability of textiles can sometimes be quite poor

Price

Where flexible glass can compete

Glass (rigid or transparent) is highly dimensionally stable Plastics are fairly Metals should be considered a A few groups The "smart fabrics Electronics immature as a reasonably mature substrate; OLEDs are researching industry" has been (displays) and PV substrate for were created on metal foils some paper as an around for quite a have been electronics or PV years back and there seems to be no electronics while, but has created on glass serious objections to using metals as substrate never really taken (but not flexible a PV substrate off glass) for many years Plastics are likely to be The relative price Metal foils Paper substrate Competition Flexible glass a low-cost option and of flexible glass would be less cost would between textiles would be less much less expensive and sheet steel is expensive than obviously be and flexible glass expensive than flexible glass for hard to assess flexible glass very low, but probably wouldn't some time to come definitively functionality be on price and would also be price comparisons very limited are hard to make For products that need Direct Very limited use Not much Not much overlap Flexible glass good transparency, competition for of metal foil overlap in in sectors served. competes with scratch resistance and high-end PV and currently, so sectors served. Perhaps some rigid glass long-term durability other products difficult to say Perhaps some competition in primarily on seeking a strong, competition in non-clothing smart weight, but is fairly flexible and smart packtextiles (tents, also an enabling high aging, where curtains) where technology that encapsulating flexible glass flexible glass could lets products be substrate could win on win on durability made intrinsically durability flexible and transferred to R2R processing

The dimensional stability of most metals is high

NanoMarkets 2011

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E.3 Summary of the Eight-Year Projections of Flexible Glass Markets

In the main body of this report, we have constructed forecasts that are summarized below in Exhibit E-3.
Exhibit E-3: Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Functionality ($ Million) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Intrinsically flexible products (substrate) Intrinsically flexible products ( encapsulation) Lightweight panels Rigidly encapsulated R2R Other Total NanoMarkets 2011

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2017 2018

Eight-Year Forecast of Flexible Glass Use by Functionality

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 $ Millions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NanoMarkets, LC Intrinsically flexible products (encapsulation) Intrinsically flexible products (substrate) Other Rigidly encapsulated R2R Lightweight panels

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Total Flexible Glass Market

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 $ Millions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2011 NanoMarkets, LC 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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For the purposes of the forecasts in this report, we have divided the market up into several segments and these can be explained to some extent in terms of the expected roadmap for flexible glass: The initial applications for flexible glass are likely to be found in its use as (1) a lowweight substitute for rigid glass used in various parts of the electronics and PV industry or (2) as a substrate for rigidly encapsulated products produced in R2R fabrication. These applications are the most immediately accessible since they primarily involve changes at the fabrication level, rather than creating intrinsically flexible products that entail novel marketing and business development issues The other major sector that we have provided forecasts for in this report is the intrinsically flexible products that a lot of observers believe are starting to emerge in the marketplace. For the purposes of this report, we have included specific breakouts for intrinsically flexible displays, flexible PV and flexible/conformable OLED lighting We have included an "other" category at the end of Exhibit E-3, reflecting the fact that, although there are no other areas other than the ones specified to which manufacturers of flexible glass are anticipating selling their flexible glass in anything like the near future, there are clearly other areas where it could be sold. Some of these areas are mentioned in passing in the literature and we discuss them more fully in the main body of this report.

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A final point on the forecasts: although the main drivers considered in this report have to do specifically with the penetration of flexible glass in a number of market segments, it is also important to remember that much of the growth that we anticipate in this report is not just a function of the virtues and enhanced functionality of flexible glass, but also because of the high growth expected for the various underlying addressable markets to which it is targeted.

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To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets at sales@nanomarket.net or via telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us at www.nanomarkets.net.

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